There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
I honestly think that we are going to need an updated statement from the Chancellor. His budget already seems to be addressing a different world from the one we have. Our businesses need cash injections so that they can (a) keep trading lawfully and (b) keep paying their workforce to help overall demand. This is becoming increasingly urgent.
Either this is addressed or we face a sustained depression, with all the consequences that brings. Ideally, we need coordinated international action at the government and central bank level. Trump ad the US cannot be trusted to be a part of that, but others can. Something Europe-wide surely has to be the focus.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Their figures are really weird and getting weirder. 6,924 cases and 14 deaths? They should have 4-5x that, minimum, probably many more at this stage since many cases unfortunately end quickly with an early death weighting the fatality higher at the start. France has 1500 fewer cases and 127 deaths.
They are either doing something very right or they are using different criteria for recording deaths than anyone else.
I have no idea why this is either. If they are only reporting COVID-19 primary cause of deaths that would be a dishonest way of reporting, and IMO does not sound like the German way of doing things.
My opinion about a week ago was that the higher numbers of ICU beds was meaning they could keep the critical cases alive for longer. The extreme diference in cases to deaths is now so large I doubt if that can be the explanation.
Here is another theory I will throw in (with no scientific knowledge or background to provide any evidence) namely certain populations are more prone to the cytokine storm effect, which seems to be killing many of the Covid 19 victims. Germany has very low numbers of deaths but so do Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Iceland given their cases.
Please tell me this government will realize that it has to extend the transition period . How will new infrastructure be done in time now . On both sides of the Channel that’s now an issue .
And if a deal can’t be reached in time are you going to force business to go to WTO after the catastrophe of this virus .
Surely they must realize that most people will understand if there’s an extension to the transition . It’s a shame this government didn’t stop playing to the gallery by putting that clause forbidding an extension into its legislation.
If the Commons shuts down how do you change that .
I mean there's going to be zero cross-border trade in a few weeks. A perfect time to leave the EU with zero disruption.
Yes, of course. Perpetuating the CV-induced complete lockdown until the end of time is a brilliant proposal, Mr Cummings.
The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?
1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance. 2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance
This would be an act of god, surely?
If the government orders a shut down thats very different to choosing a voluntary shut down.
It is, but under what clause in any insurance policy ever issued is it an insured event? How would the clause be worded?
This is quite wrong, and too late to edit it
"Civil Authority Ingress / Egress. Government-mandated closure of business premises that directly causes loss of revenue.[3] Examples include forced business closures because of government-issued curfews or street closures related to a covered event."
is something standardly covered by Business Interruption Insurance, says wiki. What proportion of businesses have such cover is a question, of course.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
I still can’t find out what was said about those with underlying conditions? I couldn’t watch the announcement and can’t find anything in the initial reports.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft, too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.
It was never going to be compulsory and policed. If we ever do that we will know it is potentially the apocalypse.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
Schools staying open? How the feck does that fit with avoiding unnecessary journeys and gatherings?
Schools might not be considered unnecessary gatherings?
We are not in normal times.
Closing schools might make the virus spread more, as kids are scattered into playdates, child care facilities and work places. Allowing the parents who can actually keep them home to do so while keeping them open for others might be the right balance.
India 114 cases, 2 deaths. Malaysia 566 cases, 0 deaths.
The Malaysian number is kinda similar to us taking into acct population (ie lot lower than most of Europe). The India number though - that's insanely tiny.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
I am not sure
There is a fair amount of air cargo but that would not be a lot of the overall bulk transported.
I still can’t find out what was said about those with underlying conditions? I couldn’t watch the announcement and can’t find anything in the initial reports.
They said the detail was on the website. PHE in this case, I think.
Schools staying open? How the feck does that fit with avoiding unnecessary journeys and gatherings?
Schools might not be considered unnecessary gatherings?
We are not in normal times.
Closing schools might make the virus spread more, as kids are scattered into playdates, child care facilities and work places. Allowing the parents who can actually keep them home to do so while keeping them open for others might be the right balance.
Plus NHS staff with kids can no longer come into work, plus elderly parents being pressed into childcare duty increasing their risk of infection.
These are multi-faceted problems with no simple solution, no silver bullet. Judgements are being made to balance the various factors. Some will be right, some will be wrong. Naively of not, I do genuinely believe the government has the right people looking at this*, and are trying to do the right thing.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
Buckle up. The financial ride will be bumpier than the medical one.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
Buckle up. The financial ride will be bumpier than the medical one.
We may need social as well as financial changes. The divisive rhetoric about welfare of the last 40 years may have to go, for the sake of the economy and collective wellbeing if nothing else.
I can only think that the infection was there a while, got into hospitals where nurses etc caught it (without knowing) and spread it to lots of already very ill people!?
Very sad indeed.
That makes perfect sense, aloong with the very low morbidity rate for S Korea, Nordic countries where presumably plenty of healthy young people with ILI have been tested.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft, too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
Yes, a large proportion.
Edit: See here (15.56)
However Elizabeth de Jong the FTA’s UK policy advisor are concerned about the sharp reduction in flights warning that 70% of freight is transported on passenger planes including critical pharmaceuticals, scientific equipment, some food and flowers.
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft, too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
Either the government undertakes to keep UK businesses going during this unprecedented health emergency - and their employees in work - or we face a sustained depression once it is over. This is a huge test for Boris Johnson. Let Hancock handle the health issues, the PM has an economy to save. Will he, can he do it?
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft, too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
Are oldies who normally get a regular blood tests for warfarin allowed out?
My mother is in a care home and last Friday they banned all visitors indefinitely. It is my parents` wedding anniversary on Wednesday. My mum and dad will not see each other on their anniversary for the first time ever. When I drive four hours to go down to see them at the weekend, I shall only be able to see my father, despite it being Mother`s Day.
They have taken this action off their own bat, no legal compulsion to do it. They are, in effect, keeping my mother captive. I rang to express my concern today. After the manager predictably and understandably expressed her wish to protect people (despite carers going in and out all day) she admitted that a key factor in their policy decision is that, in her words: "if the virus got into the care home it could wipe out our residents, and this would be bad for business!"
I applaud her honesty, I guess.
Give me strength, if you really can't grasp that it is not a good idea to visit a care home in the current circumstances then there is little hope and the restrictions will become compulsory and more draconian. Missing 1 wedding anniversary and 1 mothers day right now is trivial.
I simply do not believe that the manager of a care home told you that they are trying to avoid Covid-19 spreading through a care home because it would be "bad for business". Are you prepared to name the care home?
Either the government undertakes to keep UK businesses going during this unprecedented health emergency - and their employees in work - or we face a sustained depression once it is over. This is a huge test for Boris Johnson. Let Hancock handle the health issues, the PM has an economy to save. Will he, can he do it?
I fear what might usually sound like hyperbole really isn't.
Surely letting people engage in the occasional minor act of rebellion against the lockdown must help reduce the chance of a major uprising against it?
Thanx Baby Jesus, for the 2nd amendment.
What, exactly, would you expect the police and army to do with 500 unarmed men in Brixton during a hot summer's week that didn't result in running battles and blood on the streets?
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft, too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
Yes, a large proportion.
Food ?
Some, yes.
Sorry to keep at this, but if you're aware of the particular background of this, any specific category of food that will have social implications ?
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
I am not sure
There is a fair amount of air cargo but that would not be a lot of the overall bulk transported.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
I am not sure
There is a fair amount of air cargo but that would not be a lot of the overall bulk transported.
I think a lot of fruit veg etc from Spain comes in cheaply off the back of scheduled flights. Let me know when you run out of celery etc and I’ll. Post you some
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft, too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
Yes, a large proportion.
Edit: See here (15.56)
However Elizabeth de Jong the FTA’s UK policy advisor are concerned about the sharp reduction in flights warning that 70% of freight is transported on passenger planes including critical pharmaceuticals, scientific equipment, some food and flowers.
Heathrow brings in about 1.5 million tonnes of cargo per year, despite handling very few freighters. The most of any UK airport by quite a way. For context, almost 500 million tonnes came in through seaports (and the tunnel).
EDIT: That's two-way cargo, but it will be weighted towards inbound as we import much more than we export in terms of physical goods. And services don't weigh much
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft, too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
Yes, a large proportion.
Edit: See here (15.56)
However Elizabeth de Jong the FTA’s UK policy advisor are concerned about the sharp reduction in flights warning that 70% of freight is transported on passenger planes including critical pharmaceuticals, scientific equipment, some food and flowers.
Their figures are really weird and getting weirder. 6,924 cases and 14 deaths? They should have 4-5x that, minimum, probably many more at this stage since many cases unfortunately end quickly with an early death weighting the fatality higher at the start. France has 1500 fewer cases and 127 deaths.
They are either doing something very right or they are using different criteria for recording deaths than anyone else.
I have no idea why this is either. If they are only reporting COVID-19 primary cause of deaths that would be a dishonest way of reporting, and IMO does not sound like the German way of doing things.
My opinion about a week ago was that the higher numbers of ICU beds was meaning they could keep the critical cases alive for longer. The extreme diference in cases to deaths is now so large I doubt if that can be the explanation.
Here is another theory I will throw in (with no scientific knowledge or background to provide any evidence) namely certain populations are more prone to the cytokine storm effect, which seems to be killing many of the Covid 19 victims. Germany has very low numbers of deaths but so do Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Iceland given their cases.
Their figures are really weird and getting weirder. 6,924 cases and 14 deaths? They should have 4-5x that, minimum, probably many more at this stage since many cases unfortunately end quickly with an early death weighting the fatality higher at the start. France has 1500 fewer cases and 127 deaths.
They are either doing something very right or they are using different criteria for recording deaths than anyone else.
I have no idea why this is either. If they are only reporting COVID-19 primary cause of deaths that would be a dishonest way of reporting, and IMO does not sound like the German way of doing things.
My opinion about a week ago was that the higher numbers of ICU beds was meaning they could keep the critical cases alive for longer. The extreme diference in cases to deaths is now so large I doubt if that can be the explanation.
Here is another theory I will throw in (with no scientific knowledge or background to provide any evidence) namely certain populations are more prone to the cytokine storm effect, which seems to be killing many of the Covid 19 victims. Germany has very low numbers of deaths but so do Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Iceland given their cases.
Surely letting people engage in the occasional minor act of rebellion against the lockdown must help reduce the chance of a major uprising against it?
Thanx Baby Jesus, for the 2nd amendment.
What, exactly, would you expect the police and army to do with 500 unarmed men in Brixton during a hot summer's week that didn't result in running battles and blood on the streets?
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
It sounds extraordinarily credible and not at all like whistling in the dark.
All these reduced flights are soon going to be significantly affecting international trade. It's important at this stage to know what proportion of goods to europe are coming in by ship, and what proportion by air.
Flight radar app seems to indicate air freight is still flying
Do any significant proportion of goods come with passenger aircraft, too ? I always thought mail did, for instance, but someone tells me not.
Yes, a large proportion.
Food ?
Some, yes.
Sorry to keep at this, but if you're aware of the particular background of this, any specific category of food that will have social implications ?
Avocados!
To be clear I'm not an expert on this, but presumably we're talking mainly about fruit and veg from Kenya, South Africa, Central and South America. Fairly low volumes on food, I would guess.
It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.
we should but are we? not everybody is like the Brits on holiday in Tenerife or Benidorm, a significant proportion of the population are selfish and stupid.
Did you see the photos of how empty Waterloo was during rush hour this morning? The vast majority are getting the message.
Let’s see what the clubs and pubs are like at the weekend
One wonders how long the youth will go along with missing out on socialising for the sake of their elders. I've not been able to stop my own lad going to the gym (and risking infection), but then, as he says, he'd be more likely to catch it at school anyway.
Any youngster who is carrying on regardless because they believe the virus won't affect them clearly hasn't been paying attention to the economic implications.
It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.
It was never going to be compulsory and policed. If we ever do that we will know it is potentially the apocalypse.
I think we are just seeing a measured escalation of measures, getting people used to the ideas of restrictions, and then pushing them harder as and when.
Appreciate there are "logical types" who don't get this - and always want to go from A to Z in one jump. But that's not really appropriate or practical in a liberal democracy of 60 million.
I think Boris and the experts got the tone about right. And, of course, they can recalibrate on a day-to-day basis with the press conferences.
I still can’t find out what was said about those with underlying conditions? I couldn’t watch the announcement and can’t find anything in the initial reports.
They said the detail was on the website. PHE in this case, I think.
No detail, just mentions ‘some health issues’ and that’s worse than useless.
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
It sounds extraordinarily credible and not at all like whistling in the dark.
My gut reaction to this is that it is incredibly optimistic - global growth, not even recession. It strikes me as a very narrow look at the financial fundamentals, without considering social reactions and other 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc... order impacts.
The disease is now accelerating and 53 people have sadly now died. Our hearts across the whole House go out to their families
Our policy is to fight this virus with everything we’ve got.
From the more hopeful signs earlier in the day, that's now a worse performance in deaths if not severe cases than other northern countries. We're going to have to shift to being more mentally prepared, whatever the pattern of the disease may end up being here.
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
Situations like this remind us that there are some significant cultural differences between Britain and continental Europe, let alone Asia. We really don't get along well with seriously authoritarian measures outside of wartime.
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
Yes, it's interesting but very limited in value. Just presumes America will shrug off 3 million extra deaths, and most of them in a short space of time?
Nations will be traumatised. They won't bounce back. Unless we find a good vaccine fear will rule behaviour for a long time, consumption will be subdued. So many things will change, lots of them we won't even be able to guess at
God will be back tho. Go long on church building and buy shares in hymnal printers.
And folk simply won`t have the money available to invest. And without that money there will be insufficient demand to push prices back up to anywhere near previous levels (as the report suggests).
Either the government undertakes to keep UK businesses going during this unprecedented health emergency - and their employees in work - or we face a sustained depression once it is over. This is a huge test for Boris Johnson. Let Hancock handle the health issues, the PM has an economy to save. Will he, can he do it?
Yes if he request a national unity government. Asks Kier Starmer if he is elected Labour leader, Nicola Sturgeon, Sadiq Khan, Welsh and Ni leader, plus other mayors from the regions.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
The big take-away for me (that hasn't been leaked before) is the testing. They clearly are still community testing, ramping up capacity and there is going to be a big push on testing those that have had it.
I don't know if that is a U-Turn of a U-Turn or just the last press conference they didn't explain (deliberately or not) the plan in this regard.
It was announced by sturgeon after the first Cobra meeting; when the UK government finally got round to doing their post-Cobra press conference, they didn’t say much about it, and I don’t think any journalist was alert enough to ask.
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
Situations like this remind us that there are some significant cultural differences between Britain and continental Europe, let alone Asia. We really don't get along well with seriously authoritarian measures outside of wartime.
The old joke - what's the difference between Britain, Germany and Switzerland?
In Britain, if it's not prohibited, it's allowed. In Germany, if it's not allowed, it's prohibited. In Switzerland, if it's not prohibited, it's mandatory.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
If anyone's struggling on the mortgage front, a number of providers are allowing payment holidays for a few months (not sure how many a few is, but might help someone).
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
It sounds extraordinarily credible and not at all like whistling in the dark.
My gut reaction to this is that it is incredibly optimistic - global growth, not even recession. It strikes me as a very narrow look at the financial fundamentals, without considering social reactions and other 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc... order impacts.
Edit: that said, I hope it's correct.
My Germanity may be the reason why the sarcastic intent of my comment was too sublime to be detected by you.
Even now, it seems many of us are in denial about just how big this crisis is economically. It's epochal. It's going to change everything. We won't get on top of it by hoping. We have to be proactive. And we have to accept that there will be a cost. A big one. If we don't, we're buggered.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country and given you will only be allowed out of the house for one food shop what are you going to spend it on anyway? As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do given this situation will likely last for months
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
It sounds extraordinarily credible and not at all like whistling in the dark.
My gut reaction to this is that it is incredibly optimistic - global growth, not even recession. It strikes me as a very narrow look at the financial fundamentals, without considering social reactions and other 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc... order impacts.
Edit: that said, I hope it's correct.
My Germanity may be the reason why the sarcastic intent of my comment was too sublime to be detected by you.
Not just Germans, I frequently miss irony and sarcasm in posts. Without the vocal tones, it is way harder to pick up.
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
Situations like this remind us that there are some significant cultural differences between Britain and continental Europe, let alone Asia. We really don't get along well with seriously authoritarian measures outside of wartime.
The old joke - what's the difference between Britain, Germany and Switzerland?
In Britain, if it's not prohibited, it's allowed. In Germany, if it's not allowed, it's prohibited. In Switzerland, if it's not prohibited, it's mandatory.
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
Yes, it's interesting but very limited in value. Just presumes America will shrug off 3 million extra deaths, and most of them in a short space of time?
Nations will be traumatised. They won't bounce back. Unless we find a good vaccine fear will rule behaviour for a long time, consumption will be subdued. So many things will change, lots of them we won't even be able to guess at
God will be back tho. Go long on church building and buy shares in hymnal printers.
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
Situations like this remind us that there are some significant cultural differences between Britain and continental Europe, let alone Asia. We really don't get along well with seriously authoritarian measures outside of wartime.
The old joke - what's the difference between Britain, Germany and Switzerland?
In Britain, if it's not prohibited, it's allowed. In Germany, if it's not allowed, it's prohibited. In Switzerland, if it's not prohibited, it's mandatory.
In the United States everything is permitted, unless it is prohibited. In Germany everything is prohibited, unless it is permitted. In Italy, everything is permitted, Even what is prohibited. In the Soviet Union everything is prohibited, even what is permitted.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country and given you will only be allowed out of the house for one food shop what are you going to spend it on anyway? As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do given this situation will likely last for months
That sentence would have been greatly improved by judicious use of the Oxford comma...
Comments
Malaysia 566 cases, 0 deaths.
"Civil Authority Ingress / Egress. Government-mandated closure of business premises that directly causes loss of revenue.[3] Examples include forced business closures because of government-issued curfews or street closures related to a covered event."
is something standardly covered by Business Interruption Insurance, says wiki. What proportion of businesses have such cover is a question, of course.
And the Sunday-only Dale Rail in Lancashire.
And checking out the openings of the Trafford Branch on Metrolink, Wolverhampton Station tram extension and Blackpool North Station tram extension.
That man is insane (no, not the Governor)
These are multi-faceted problems with no simple solution, no silver bullet. Judgements are being made to balance the various factors. Some will be right, some will be wrong. Naively of not, I do genuinely believe the government has the right people looking at this*, and are trying to do the right thing.
* Dominic Cummings can do one, however.
Wonder if she'll be able to get her money back on the tickets?
The disease is now accelerating and 53 people have sadly now died. Our hearts across the whole House go out to their families
Our policy is to fight this virus with everything we’ve got.
Edit: See here (15.56)
However Elizabeth de Jong the FTA’s UK policy advisor are concerned about the sharp reduction in flights warning that 70% of freight is transported on passenger planes including critical pharmaceuticals, scientific equipment, some food and flowers.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/16/coronavirus-live-updates-us-cdc-events-europe-lockdown-uk-deaths-australia-france-italy-spain-update-latest-news
Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
"Doing what we are told not to do has always been a family trait."
I simply do not believe that the manager of a care home told you that they are trying to avoid Covid-19 spreading through a care home because it would be "bad for business". Are you prepared to name the care home?
Heathrow brings in about 1.5 million tonnes of cargo per year, despite handling very few freighters. The most of any UK airport by quite a way. For context, almost 500 million tonnes came in through seaports (and the tunnel).
EDIT: That's two-way cargo, but it will be weighted towards inbound as we import much more than we export in terms of physical goods. And services don't weigh much
Similarly Abbott with her diabetes.
You would have thought Thornberry therefore is the obvious person to front for Labour, but it doesn’t seem to be happening. Petty spite?
https://www.google.com/search?q=dow+live+price&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB719GB719&oq=dow&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i59j35i39l2j69i60l2j69i61.3873j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
To be clear I'm not an expert on this, but presumably we're talking mainly about fruit and veg from Kenya, South Africa, Central and South America. Fairly low volumes on food, I would guess.
A bigger issue would be medical supplies.
Any youngster who is carrying on regardless because they believe the virus won't affect them clearly hasn't been paying attention to the economic implications.
Appreciate there are "logical types" who don't get this - and always want to go from A to Z in one jump. But that's not really appropriate or practical in a liberal democracy of 60 million.
I think Boris and the experts got the tone about right. And, of course, they can recalibrate on a day-to-day basis with the press conferences.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
Edit: that said, I hope it's correct.
Asks Kier Starmer if he is elected Labour leader, Nicola Sturgeon, Sadiq Khan, Welsh and Ni leader, plus other mayors from the regions.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
In Britain, if it's not prohibited, it's allowed.
In Germany, if it's not allowed, it's prohibited.
In Switzerland, if it's not prohibited, it's mandatory.
As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do given this situation will likely last for months
In Germany everything is prohibited, unless it is permitted.
In Italy, everything is permitted, Even what is prohibited.
In the Soviet Union everything is prohibited, even what is permitted.