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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    Arhhh as I thought, they are testing all over the place and going to radically expand capacity, they just don't want to say everybody who wants a test gets a test ala Trump.

    Maybe they know what they are doing? ;)
    Nah, they are definitely winging this. Whenever I hear the two egg heads, I am gently reassured.
    If they steer us through this, I'm sure there will be gongs-a-plenty in the new year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Really interesting about the testing for those that have had and don't know.
  • IanB2 said:

    Its feels like the government is basically using nudge to get all this done rather than using legal enforcement.

    The testing question from the BBC is a key one.

    Last week it was advice, this week it is strong advice.
    The key is that this is now national policy agreed in Cobra with Sturgeon, Drakeford and Foster participating
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    349 more deaths in Italy......
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    I must say I'm baffled by the criticisms of the UK government. They seem to be rolling out increasingly strict recommendations/measures as the likely numbers of cases (including undetected cases) progresses. There was little point in lots of self-isolation and social distancing when there was around 1 person in 100,000 infected. Now it's down to something like one in a few thousand or so (I'm guessing, but of that order of magnitude) which justifies stronger measures. Meanwhile a lot of people are already taking steps to reduce possible exposure. In a week or so even stronger measures will be appropriate. This seems entirely logical to me.

    Richard, do you think people having a high temperature and dry cough and recent contact with someone (Who did not get tested when he really should have volunteered for it) arriving from Italy should be tested ?!
    Yes, assuming there are enough test kits and people to process them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    DavidL said:

    I had some bad news today in that a good friend of mine has inoperable bowel cancer. He is about to start chemo but it is purely life extending. He wants a consultation in a case which I am taking over from him but given this advice should he be at such a meeting? I really don't think so. His immune system is about to be seriously compromised.

    Life is pretty shitty sometimes. He is a great bloke.

    sorry to read this. what grim times.
  • IanB2 said:

    Glston

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It's a bit wooly, isn't it? Pubs and clubs and the like aren't being shut, people are just advised to avoid them?

    Perhaps they think that advice is sufficient to reduce transmission, and that compulsory action is not necessary, at least at the moment.
    I get that, but won't the temptation for bars, cafés, restaurants and similar to risk being open be too great? What about shopping centres, big DIY stores? It's too vague.
    They can be open, but how many will go? I don't get why people need to be told that something is forbidden from doing something, when it is obviously not a good idea.
    That's just a cop-out, though, isn't it? "We really don't want you to go to these places, but we're too scared politically to close them."
    If people don’t go, they’ll close anyway. My brothers restaurant has had tons of cancellations these last few days; after this advice it’ll be cheaper for him just to close up and cut his costs as best he can.
    My mate's hotel is in a similar bind, and now with weddings starting to be cancelled the real killer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Really interesting about the testing for those that have had and don't know.

    I missed that point, what was it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Arhhh as I thought, they are testing all over the place and going to radically expand capacity, they just don't want to say everybody who wants a test gets a test ala Trump.

    Maybe they know what they are doing? ;)
    Nah, they are definitely winging this. Whenever I hear the two egg heads, I am gently reassured.
    If they steer us through this, I'm sure there will be gongs-a-plenty in the new year.
    Can they just run the government?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    What is Peston banging on about, nurses want to work even if they have a cough.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    So I’m due to see 3 friends tomorrow to have a few cans of Guinness at one of their houses. Is this now not allowed?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Right. I’d better order in beer for home.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Boris is a liberal and a very reluctant banner of things (like pubs). I suspect he'd prefer people to act sensibly and responsibly without being forced to do so.

    That's a good thing, in my opinion.

    Work for me was pretty normal today (and fairly busy). Lots and lots of hand sanitiser installed on site and no customers allowed to visit, but other than that, business as usual.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    DavidL said:

    The 2 scientists are just excellent. They give lots of information clearly, comprehensibly and relatively succinctly. They also completely chain the tone of this, its completely unpolitical because of their involvement.

    They are fantastic aren’t they? We should all be grateful.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    So I’m due to see 3 friends tomorrow to have a few cans of Guinness at one of their houses. Is this now not allowed?

    It is strongly advised that you do not do so to your sake and the rest of the country.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    So I’m due to see 3 friends tomorrow to have a few cans of Guinness at one of their houses. Is this now not allowed?

    Why would that be banned? At some level you have to take some responsibility for your decisions.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    eristdoof said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Very poor reporting by the media on the latest UK figures. Hardly any of them mentioning the fact that the percentage increase in cases is the lowest since 27th February.

    You might also notice that every Monday has less new cases than the day before, and that this is also seen in the numbers from other countries. Perhaps this is because less tests are processed on a SUnday.
    For UK numbers, there were 4000 tests (I think the second highest single day number of tests).
    Yes you are right. That does make the Monday drop in new cases interesting. Three of the last 4 Mondays had more tests completed (by 9am so actually mostly a Sunday figure) than on the previous day where as the last 3 Mondays had less new cases. 4 Mondays ago there were 0 new cases on Sunday and Monday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    DavidL said:

    The 2 scientists are just excellent. They give lots of information clearly, comprehensibly and relatively succinctly. They also completely chain the tone of this, its completely unpolitical because of their involvement.

    They are fantastic, now we have all the twats from the media.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "1111 new cases and 1 new death in Germany"

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    How are the Germans getting so many cases and so few deaths? Are they vastly out-testing everyone else?

    Perhaps the virus is now so widespread that testing can't possibly keep up, and the better indicator of hos widespread it is is death rate.
    Initially the outbreak was among much younger people so it could be conceivable that their death rate was much lower, but now it is much more widespread.

    Either they have some magic elixir or they are being a bit naughty and only confirming if they definitely died of that and only that and after the postmortem has confirmed it.

    In the UK, we seem to categorise anybody who tested positive for it and then died as 100% due to coronavirus. From some of the reports, it definitely sounds like in a number of cases they people were already very very ill with unrelated conditions.

    And even yesterday the 59 year old who died, had it, but his window said it wasn't certain that is what killed him, she was waiting for the postmortem.
    Yes, it is obviously impossible that the Germans are simply better at caring for critically ill people than we are. They must be fiddling the figures somehow.
    I wouldn't expect them to be much different from Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland or Denmark. These countries have a modern well-funded NHS and probably less red tape because they're tax funded like the UK's is.

    If they're lower, they may be using a different definition.

    The last time I looked at the Nordic countries, they had far fewer bodies than the UK, per case diagnosed.

    My guess is that the NHS a) is creaking at the seams, b) needs the £30 bn Lansley cited, but yesterday and c) has lots of other flaws that have crept in since Thatcher introduced the internal market.
    Indeed - I was obviously being sarcastic. That fact that the other Nordic countries (with well-funded health systems) also have low death rates indicates that health funding is indeed a factor in the Covid-19 death rate.
    I'm hoping that lots of commentators after the epidemic will say exactly this.
    I expect they will, but it will be palpable nonsense. What about France, for heaven's sake?
    We don't have a health service like France's where you can visit five different doctors if you don't like the first four opinions. You also have to pay at the point of use. No thanks. Here are the details

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_care_in_France

    As for the difference between France and Germany, as both use private insurers and don't just have a government-run system like UK or Canada, sorry I don't know. Could it be that France is very badly set-up for pandemics and heads will roll there...?
    But you wrote that this was about spending. France spends more than any other European country. So now you are trying to find an excuse to justify your preconception by pretending that France doesn't have a good health service, when it is universally recognised as one of the best in the world.

    Perhaps you should stop working backwards from your preconceptions.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Very poor reporting by the media on the latest UK figures. Hardly any of them mentioning the fact that the percentage increase in cases is the lowest since 27th February.

    You might also notice that every Monday has less new cases than the day before, and that this is also seen in the numbers from other countries. Perhaps this is because less tests are processed on a SUnday.
    For UK numbers, there were 4000 tests (I think the second highest single day number of tests).
    Yes you are right. That does make the Monday drop in new cases interesting. Three of the last 4 Mondays had more tests completed (by 9am so actually mostly a Sunday figure) than on the previous day where as the last 3 Mondays had less new cases. 4 Mondays ago there were 0 new cases on Sunday and Monday.
    The egg heads think at least in London things are ramping up. They see the data before it is published, so I expect to see a big leap in the next day or two.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    They really need to talk more about how businesses will be supported, specifically wages for workers in those sectors.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    All this crap is just muddying the waters looking for an angle for a headline.

    Do you f##king job, listen to the egg-heads, write it down, educate the public, help save lives.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    So I’m due to see 3 friends tomorrow to have a few cans of Guinness at one of their houses. Is this now not allowed?

    Yes, you can.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    Are oldies who normally get a regular blood tests for warfarin allowed out?

    My mother is in a care home and last Friday they banned all visitors indefinitely. It is my parents` wedding anniversary on Wednesday. My mum and dad will not see each other on their anniversary for the first time ever. When I drive four hours to go down to see them at the weekend, I shall only be able to see my father, despite it being Mother`s Day.

    They have taken this action off their own bat, no legal compulsion to do it. They are, in effect, keeping my mother captive. I rang to express my concern today. After the manager predictably and understandably expressed her wish to protect people (despite carers going in and out all day) she admitted that a key factor in their policy decision is that, in her words: "if the virus got into the care home it could wipe out our residents, and this would be bad for business!"

    I applaud her honesty, I guess.
  • The burden on Boris, Vallance and Whitty is beyond compare and I would not like to have their responsibility and I far one will and do trust them and so must the Country

    Left - right, remain - leave are no longer relevant.

    We all need to unify not only behind those leading this fight but also to reflect on how each and everyone of us can contribute in some way, large or small, to helping all those in need and to ensure we respect and honour our NHS and not to use it unnecessarily

    My current dilemma is whether to:

    a) Continue shopping for and helping my elderly mother and medically vulnerable sibling while, as far as possible, avoiding contact with others in order to minimise my own risk of infection, or

    b) Volunteer to help out with shopping for other people too, but consequently increasing my own exposure and thus increasing the risk that I become infected and pass it on to my vulnerable relatives.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Glston

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It's a bit wooly, isn't it? Pubs and clubs and the like aren't being shut, people are just advised to avoid them?

    Perhaps they think that advice is sufficient to reduce transmission, and that compulsory action is not necessary, at least at the moment.
    I get that, but won't the temptation for bars, cafés, restaurants and similar to risk being open be too great? What about shopping centres, big DIY stores? It's too vague.
    They can be open, but how many will go? I don't get why people need to be told that something is forbidden from doing something, when it is obviously not a good idea.
    That's just a cop-out, though, isn't it? "We really don't want you to go to these places, but we're too scared politically to close them."
    If people don’t go, they’ll close anyway. My brothers restaurant has had tons of cancellations these last few days; after this advice it’ll be cheaper for him just to close up and cut his costs as best he can.
    My mate's hotel is in a similar bind, and now with weddings starting to be cancelled the real killer.
    And so Boris is asked the question about such businesses and mostly offers waffle. It is about time government started addressing the real consequences for business owners and many employees
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    So I’m due to see 3 friends tomorrow to have a few cans of Guinness at one of their houses. Is this now not allowed?

    I commented to my Partner at the weekend, that Guinness would have been ramping up production of keg Guinness for the last few weeks around the world, only to find that it's the sales of bottled Guinness they should have been ramping up.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2020
    Chameleon said:

    FF43 said:

    Widespread, instant, testing will, I think, be the key to living with this virus. If you can test people on entry into a building, even if not with 100% accuracy, those that are negative can circulate freely and go about their business, while those that test positive get further processing in an isolated stream. Start with hospitals and food stores and then introduce daily testing into workplaces and schools. In the meantime keep transmission as low as you possibly can, even if it means relatively severe measures.

    That's where I would put the effort.

    Issue is that if someone has just got infected they may show negative on a test, especially one as rough as that.
    Which is why I think you go very locked down to start with and then ease off selectively once you start routinely testing people. Because you are testing regularly, you pick up any secondary infections very quickly. That way people can go about their business, you keep the number of deaths low and you don't need to worry about herd immunity - at the expense of a continual and slightly tedious testing regime.

    But it does depend on an easily administered test that is universally applied.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    edited March 2020
    Floater said:

    I must say I'm baffled by the criticisms of the UK government. They seem to be rolling out increasingly strict recommendations/measures as the likely numbers of cases (including undetected cases) progresses. There was little point in lots of self-isolation and social distancing when there was around 1 person in 100,000 infected. Now it's down to something like one in a few thousand or so (I'm guessing, but of that order of magnitude) which justifies stronger measures. Meanwhile a lot of people are already taking steps to reduce possible exposure. In a week or so even stronger measures will be appropriate. This seems entirely logical to me.

    Quite

    You also have people arguing that the measures aren't strong enough and others arguing we need to do much more

    How can any government square that circle?
    Isn't that the same thing?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Another 349 deaths in Italy today. And we are catching them up.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Boris dodged the question on compulsion.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Jonathan said:

    Boris dodged the question on compulsion.

    It is clear the nudge people really don't like the idea of bringing out the big ban hammer unless it is really necessary.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. L, sorry to hear about your friend.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037

    The burden on Boris, Vallance and Whitty is beyond compare and I would not like to have their responsibility and I far one will and do trust them and so must the Country

    Left - right, remain - leave are no longer relevant.

    We all need to unify not only behind those leading this fight but also to reflect on how each and everyone of us can contribute in some way, large or small, to helping all those in need and to ensure we respect and honour our NHS and not to use it unnecessarily

    My current dilemma is whether to:

    a) Continue shopping for and helping my elderly mother and medically vulnerable sibling while, as far as possible, avoiding contact with others in order to minimise my own risk of infection, or

    b) Volunteer to help out with shopping for other people too, but consequently increasing my own exposure and thus increasing the risk that I become infected and pass it on to my vulnerable relatives.
    You should leave your mother's shopping on the doorstep for her to collect. Don't enter the front door. Same with any other over 70s you might shop for.
  • The burden on Boris, Vallance and Whitty is beyond compare and I would not like to have their responsibility and I far one will and do trust them and so must the Country

    Left - right, remain - leave are no longer relevant.

    We all need to unify not only behind those leading this fight but also to reflect on how each and everyone of us can contribute in some way, large or small, to helping all those in need and to ensure we respect and honour our NHS and not to use it unnecessarily

    My current dilemma is whether to:

    a) Continue shopping for and helping my elderly mother and medically vulnerable sibling while, as far as possible, avoiding contact with others in order to minimise my own risk of infection, or

    b) Volunteer to help out with shopping for other people too, but consequently increasing my own exposure and thus increasing the risk that I become infected and pass it on to my vulnerable relatives.
    It is a difficult choice but a) would be my priority
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    Precisely. How much manpower would be used enforcing the granny ban? Resources that could be far better used.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    Jonathan said:

    Boris dodged the question on compulsion.

    It is clear the nudge people really don't like the idea of bringing out the big ban hammer unless it is really necessary.
    That must be right though. This is not a case of ordering people, its a question of bringing people along with you. Much more effective. Of course there is always the odd idiot but social pressure can be just as effective as ban hammers.
  • RobD said:

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    Precisely. How much manpower would be used enforcing the granny ban? Resources that could be far better used.
    Indeed and how much legislation would be needed to mandate all this
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    ‘Should’ is a big word in this context. No one ‘should’ smoke, but they do.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    DavidL said:

    Another 349 deaths in Italy today. And we are catching them up.

    We seem to have had one new fatality today in the UK. I thought they might announce more at this press conference but they haven't done so.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Italy's figures are just mental!? A fatality rate of 7% when most first world countries are between 1% and 3%.

    I can only think that the infection was there a while, got into hospitals where nurses etc caught it (without knowing) and spread it to lots of already very ill people!?

    Very sad indeed.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited March 2020
    Horrific death figures in italy, but again more signs the rate of growth is slowing - 13% today, the lowest yet. A week ago it was mid 20s.

    Maybe just signs of light at the end of the tunnel.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    I think this is exactly the case.

    It isn't realistic to go around welding people in their homes, so instead we have to rely on people do the right thing.

    My only concern is the message from the egg-heads often includes nuance and the media just want to hear is it banned, what about a walk, ohhhh a minister said ok and another said i don't think, U-TURN, confusion, yadda yadda yadda.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    Precisely. How much manpower would be used enforcing the granny ban? Resources that could be far better used.
    Indeed and how much legislation would be needed to mandate all this
    Probably none, because of the Civil Contingencies Act, but I get your point that it would be a distraction.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Please tell me this government will realize that it has to extend the transition period . How will new infrastructure be done in time now . On both sides of the Channel that’s now an issue .

    And if a deal can’t be reached in time are you going to force business to go to WTO after the catastrophe of this virus .

    Surely they must realize that most people will understand if there’s an extension to the transition . It’s a shame this government didn’t stop playing to the gallery by putting that clause forbidding an extension into its legislation.

    If the Commons shuts down how do you change that .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Jonathan said:

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    ‘Should’ is a big word in this context. No one ‘should’ smoke, but they do.
    People aren't scared of smoking, but they are scared of coronavirus.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Fenster said:

    Italy's figures are just mental!? A fatality rate of 7% when most first world countries are between 1% and 3%.

    I can only think that the infection was there a while, got into hospitals where nurses etc caught it (without knowing) and spread it to lots of already very ill people!?

    Very sad indeed.

    Given just how many countries can trace back their importation from Italy, I think it is pretty clear it was circulating widely for many weeks, perhaps months, in the way it did in Wuhan.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Fenster said:

    Italy's figures are just mental!? A fatality rate of 7% when most first world countries are between 1% and 3%.

    I can only think that the infection was there a while, got into hospitals where nurses etc caught it (without knowing) and spread it to lots of already very ill people!?

    Very sad indeed.

    They're not testing mild cases.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    nico67 said:

    Please tell me this government will realize that it has to extend the transition period . How will new infrastructure be done in time now . On both sides of the Channel that’s now an issue .

    And if a deal can’t be reached in time are you going to force business to go to WTO after the catastrophe of this virus .

    Surely they must realize that most people will understand if there’s an extension to the transition . It’s a shame this government didn’t stop playing to the gallery by putting that clause forbidding an extension into its legislation.

    If the Commons shuts down how do you change that .

    I mean there's going to be zero cross-border trade in a few weeks. A perfect time to leave the EU with zero disruption. :)
  • It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    We should, but it's a bit half arsed. He needs to set out what he's going to do to support small businesses. He wants people to avoid pubs and cafés. How do they stay in business?
  • I'm avoiding watching to try to keep myself calm - also *trying* to avoid all virus-related websites and chats late evening. Will read the summary later.

    Sorry to hear about your friend, DavidL. In difficult times we want to pull together, and yet this virus requires us to stay apart. So cruel.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Andrew said:

    Horrific death figures in italy, but again more signs the rate of growth is slowing - 13% today, the lowest yet. Maybe just signs of light at the end of the tunnel.

    I think deaths not so high either

    Also new cases lower than previous 2 days

    We can only hope things are turning a corner for them

  • DavidL said:

    I had some bad news today in that a good friend of mine has inoperable bowel cancer. He is about to start chemo but it is purely life extending. He wants a consultation in a case which I am taking over from him but given this advice should he be at such a meeting? I really don't think so. His immune system is about to be seriously compromised.

    Life is pretty shitty sometimes. He is a great bloke.

    Just like my near relative (sorry for obscurity, just to avoid any chance of identification). She is nearing the end of her first round of chemo. If it's any help to your friend, she has responded extremely well to the chemo and is now looking forward to, hopefully, another year or two of life. I have to take her back and forth for chemo, hence my concern about becoming infected.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Andy_JS said:

    DavidL said:

    Another 349 deaths in Italy today. And we are catching them up.

    We seem to have had one new fatality today in the UK. I thought they might announce more at this press conference but they haven't done so.
    Yes that's a big drop from what we have recently. Surprising.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    We

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    we should but are we? not everybody is like the Brits on holiday in Tenerife or Benidorm, a significant proportion of the population are selfish and stupid.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Chameleon said:

    Fenster said:

    Italy's figures are just mental!? A fatality rate of 7% when most first world countries are between 1% and 3%.

    I can only think that the infection was there a while, got into hospitals where nurses etc caught it (without knowing) and spread it to lots of already very ill people!?

    Very sad indeed.

    They're not testing mild cases.
    Ok, that's more reassuring. Still, an awful lot of death in a fortnight. Must be awful for the communities in the middle of it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    DavidL said:

    Another 349 deaths in Italy today. And we are catching them up.

    Sadly they would rather appear to be stretching their lead.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    nichomar said:

    We

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    we should but are we? not everybody is like the Brits on holiday in Tenerife or Benidorm, a significant proportion of the population are selfish and stupid.
    Did you see the photos of how empty Waterloo was during rush hour this morning? The vast majority are getting the message.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    The big take-away for me (that hasn't been leaked before) is the testing. They clearly are still community testing, ramping up capacity and there is going to be a big push on testing those that have had it.

    I don't know if that is a U-Turn of a U-Turn or just the last press conference they didn't explain (deliberately or not) the plan in this regard.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    RobD said:

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    Precisely. How much manpower would be used enforcing the granny ban? Resources that could be far better used.
    RobD said:

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    Precisely. How much manpower would be used enforcing the granny ban? Resources that could be far better used.
    And imagine the squeals of complaint when things are legally enforced..
  • The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?

    1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance.
    2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?

    1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance.
    2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance

    This would be an act of god, surely?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Andrew said:

    Horrific death figures in italy, but again more signs the rate of growth is slowing - 13% today, the lowest yet. A week ago it was mid 20s.

    Maybe just signs of light at the end of the tunnel.

    The lock down will reduce the rate of growth in the numbers. Whether it ultimately reduces the number of cases is more up for grabs. I would expect at least the rate of new cases in Italy to slow by the end of the week. Deaths will very much be a lagging indicator.
  • nico67 said:

    Please tell me this government will realize that it has to extend the transition period . How will new infrastructure be done in time now . On both sides of the Channel that’s now an issue .

    And if a deal can’t be reached in time are you going to force business to go to WTO after the catastrophe of this virus .

    Surely they must realize that most people will understand if there’s an extension to the transition . It’s a shame this government didn’t stop playing to the gallery by putting that clause forbidding an extension into its legislation.

    If the Commons shuts down how do you change that .

    I do not think brexit is even in the mix at present.

    As I said earlier today a 12 month extension makes sense but matters will come to a head in the next few months
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    I must say I'm baffled by the criticisms of the UK government. They seem to be rolling out increasingly strict recommendations/measures as the likely numbers of cases (including undetected cases) progresses. There was little point in lots of self-isolation and social distancing when there was around 1 person in 100,000 infected. Now it's down to something like one in a few thousand or so (I'm guessing, but of that order of magnitude) which justifies stronger measures. Meanwhile a lot of people are already taking steps to reduce possible exposure. In a week or so even stronger measures will be appropriate. This seems entirely logical to me.

    Quite

    You also have people arguing that the measures aren't strong enough and others arguing we need to do much more

    How can any government square that circle?
    Isn't that the same thing?
    oops I meant some are arguing that we are doing too much and others saying too little

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Today’s press conference is not as confident as last week.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "1111 new cases and 1 new death in Germany"

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    binary outcome in Germany
    Their figures are really weird and getting weirder. 6,924 cases and 14 deaths? They should have 4-5x that, minimum, probably many more at this stage since many cases unfortunately end quickly with an early death weighting the fatality higher at the start. France has 1500 fewer cases and 127 deaths.

    They are either doing something very right or they are using different criteria for recording deaths than anyone else.
    I have no idea why this is either.
    If they are only reporting COVID-19 primary cause of deaths that would be a dishonest way of reporting, and IMO does not sound like the German way of doing things.

    My opinion about a week ago was that the higher numbers of ICU beds was meaning they could keep the critical cases alive for longer. The extreme diference in cases to deaths is now so large I doubt if that can be the explanation.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    DavidL said:

    Another 349 deaths in Italy today. And we are catching them up.

    A drop from yesterday's 368 deaths.
  • RobD said:

    The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?

    1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance.
    2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance

    This would be an act of god, surely?
    If the government orders a shut down thats very different to choosing a voluntary shut down.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    We

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    we should but are we? not everybody is like the Brits on holiday in Tenerife or Benidorm, a significant proportion of the population are selfish and stupid.
    Did you see the photos of how empty Waterloo was during rush hour this morning? The vast majority are getting the message.
    Let’s see what the clubs and pubs are like at the weekend
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?

    1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance.
    2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance

    This would be an act of god, surely?
    If the government orders a shut down thats very different to choosing a voluntary shut down.
    But would either be covered by insurance?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    DavidL said:

    I had some bad news today in that a good friend of mine has inoperable bowel cancer. He is about to start chemo but it is purely life extending. He wants a consultation in a case which I am taking over from him but given this advice should he be at such a meeting? I really don't think so. His immune system is about to be seriously compromised.

    Life is pretty shitty sometimes. He is a great bloke.

    Just like my near relative (sorry for obscurity, just to avoid any chance of identification). She is nearing the end of her first round of chemo. If it's any help to your friend, she has responded extremely well to the chemo and is now looking forward to, hopefully, another year or two of life. I have to take her back and forth for chemo, hence my concern about becoming infected.
    There are so many people in our society who are vulnerable to this. It's one of the scariest aspects.
  • DensparkDenspark Posts: 68
    nichomar said:

    We

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    we should but are we? not everybody is like the Brits on holiday in Tenerife or Benidorm, a significant proportion of the population are selfish and stupid.
    incredibly stupid some of them.

    "Among other passengers was Ray Handy and his family, who have now booked a last-minute trip to Dubai after their Jet2 flight from Birmingham to Tenerife was also cancelled."

    https://www.hulldailymail.co.uk/news/hull-east-yorkshire-news/benidorm-family-hauled-back-coronavirus-3953131
  • Because he's off his tits on drugs to stay awake...?

    https://twitter.com/docrussjackson/status/1239177198755549184?s=19
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
  • Corbyn going to be self isolated by the weekend

    The only positive thing in this dreadful crisis
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    RobD said:

    The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?

    1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance.
    2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance

    This would be an act of god, surely?
    Either way, on this scale it’s beyond insurance companies. If they fall over, we won’t have them after the smoke clears, or to deal with other risks like house fires. Hence it becomes the Gvt’s risk and I hope we see some Treasury/BEIS initiatives come out over the next few days.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020

    There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.

    UBI, not the banks. If this continues the government will not be able to avoid some choice like that at some stage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?

    1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance.
    2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance

    This would be an act of god, surely?
    Either way, on this scale it’s beyond insurance companies. If they fall over, we won’t have them after the smoke clears, or to deal with other risks like house fires. Hence it becomes the Gvt’s risk and I hope we see some Treasury/BEIS initiatives come out over the next few days.
    Yeah. To suggest that they are only giving advice to somehow save the insurance companies is for the birds.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "1111 new cases and 1 new death in Germany"

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    binary outcome in Germany
    Their figures are really weird and getting weirder. 6,924 cases and 14 deaths? They should have 4-5x that, minimum, probably many more at this stage since many cases unfortunately end quickly with an early death weighting the fatality higher at the start. France has 1500 fewer cases and 127 deaths.

    They are either doing something very right or they are using different criteria for recording deaths than anyone else.
    I have no idea why this is either.
    If they are only reporting COVID-19 primary cause of deaths that would be a dishonest way of reporting, and IMO does not sound like the German way of doing things.

    My opinion about a week ago was that the higher numbers of ICU beds was meaning they could keep the critical cases alive for longer. The extreme diference in cases to deaths is now so large I doubt if that can be the explanation.
    According to this article, which seems credible, the reason is likely to be that Germany tested a lot more people early on (including younger people, showing no serious symptoms), so they found a lot of cases which in other countries would not have been detected:

    https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/09/world/europe/ap-eu-virus-outbreak-germany.html
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Really good question on precise advice.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    My parents are both in their seventies. I normally visit them every other weekend, but I suppose that's now out the window for a while.
  • nichomar said:

    RobD said:

    nichomar said:

    We

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    we should but are we? not everybody is like the Brits on holiday in Tenerife or Benidorm, a significant proportion of the population are selfish and stupid.
    Did you see the photos of how empty Waterloo was during rush hour this morning? The vast majority are getting the message.
    Let’s see what the clubs and pubs are like at the weekend
    One wonders how long the youth will go along with missing out on socialising for the sake of their elders. I've not been able to stop my own lad going to the gym (and risking infection), but then, as he says, he'd be more likely to catch it at school anyway.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Because he's off his tits on drugs to stay awake...?

    https://twitter.com/docrussjackson/status/1239177198755549184?s=19

    Because he can see something crawling out of her ear? Or because he's Joe Biden in disguise?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "1111 new cases and 1 new death in Germany"

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    binary outcome in Germany
    Their figures are really weird and getting weirder. 6,924 cases and 14 deaths? They should have 4-5x that, minimum, probably many more at this stage since many cases unfortunately end quickly with an early death weighting the fatality higher at the start. France has 1500 fewer cases and 127 deaths.

    They are either doing something very right or they are using different criteria for recording deaths than anyone else.
    I have no idea why this is either.
    If they are only reporting COVID-19 primary cause of deaths that would be a dishonest way of reporting, and IMO does not sound like the German way of doing things.

    My opinion about a week ago was that the higher numbers of ICU beds was meaning they could keep the critical cases alive for longer. The extreme diference in cases to deaths is now so large I doubt if that can be the explanation.
    Here is another theory I will throw in (with no scientific knowledge or background to provide any evidence) namely certain populations are more prone to the cytokine storm effect, which seems to be killing many of the Covid 19 victims. Germany has very low numbers of deaths but so do Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Iceland given their cases.

    Germany + Austria + Norway + Denmark + Sweden + Iceland = 11711 cases, 54 serious / critical cases, 31 deaths

    Spain = 9,428 cases, 272 serious / critical, 335 deaths

    France = 5,423 cases, 400 serious / critical, 127 deaths (as of yesterday)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    RobD said:

    The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?

    1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance.
    2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance

    This would be an act of god, surely?
    If the government orders a shut down thats very different to choosing a voluntary shut down.
    It is, but under what clause in any insurance policy ever issued is it an insured event? How would the clause be worded?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "1111 new cases and 1 new death in Germany"

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    binary outcome in Germany
    Their figures are really weird and getting weirder. 6,924 cases and 14 deaths? They should have 4-5x that, minimum, probably many more at this stage since many cases unfortunately end quickly with an early death weighting the fatality higher at the start. France has 1500 fewer cases and 127 deaths.

    They are either doing something very right or they are using different criteria for recording deaths than anyone else.
    I have no idea why this is either.
    If they are only reporting COVID-19 primary cause of deaths that would be a dishonest way of reporting, and IMO does not sound like the German way of doing things.

    My opinion about a week ago was that the higher numbers of ICU beds was meaning they could keep the critical cases alive for longer. The extreme diference in cases to deaths is now so large I doubt if that can be the explanation.
    According to this article, which seems credible, the reason is likely to be that Germany tested a lot more people early on (including younger people, showing no serious symptoms), so they found a lot of cases which in other countries would not have been detected:

    https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/09/world/europe/ap-eu-virus-outbreak-germany.html
    That shouldn't explain though the differences in serious cases / deaths though
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880

    My parents are both in their seventies. I normally visit them every other weekend, but I suppose that's now out the window for a while.

    I live with my mum. She's 70+. :open_mouth:
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Penny Drops. Why is it advice rather than order?

    1. I order you not to go to the pub. Pub shuts down and claims on insurance.
    2. I ask you not to go to pub. Pub shuts down due to lack of trade, can't claim in insurance

    This would be an act of god, surely?
    Either way, on this scale it’s beyond insurance companies. If they fall over, we won’t have them after the smoke clears, or to deal with other risks like house fires. Hence it becomes the Gvt’s risk and I hope we see some Treasury/BEIS initiatives come out over the next few days.
    Yeah. To suggest that they are only giving advice to somehow save the insurance companies is for the birds.
    Clearly the answer to help the pub sector is a massive Government sponsored ten day national bender when this is all over, against which they can borrow now. I’m willing to commit to do my bit.
  • The Mcdonald's just down the road is packed, as it always is after school. Let's see what it's like tomorrow
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862

    There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.

    I honestly think that we are going to need an updated statement from the Chancellor. His budget already seems to be addressing a different world from the one we have. Our businesses need cash injections so that they can (a) keep trading lawfully and (b) keep paying their workforce to help overall demand. This is becoming increasingly urgent.
  • MrEd said:

    eristdoof said:

    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "1111 new cases and 1 new death in Germany"

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    binary outcome in Germany
    Their figures are really weird and getting weirder. 6,924 cases and 14 deaths? They should have 4-5x that, minimum, probably many more at this stage since many cases unfortunately end quickly with an early death weighting the fatality higher at the start. France has 1500 fewer cases and 127 deaths.

    They are either doing something very right or they are using different criteria for recording deaths than anyone else.
    I have no idea why this is either.
    If they are only reporting COVID-19 primary cause of deaths that would be a dishonest way of reporting, and IMO does not sound like the German way of doing things.

    My opinion about a week ago was that the higher numbers of ICU beds was meaning they could keep the critical cases alive for longer. The extreme diference in cases to deaths is now so large I doubt if that can be the explanation.
    Here is another theory I will throw in (with no scientific knowledge or background to provide any evidence) namely certain populations are more prone to the cytokine storm effect, which seems to be killing many of the Covid 19 victims. Germany has very low numbers of deaths but so do Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Iceland given their cases.

    Germany + Austria + Norway + Denmark + Sweden + Iceland = 11711 cases, 54 serious / critical cases, 31 deaths

    Spain = 9,428 cases, 272 serious / critical, 335 deaths

    France = 5,423 cases, 400 serious / critical, 127 deaths (as of yesterday)
    Could it be to do with climate? Maybe covid-19 doesn't like it too hot (India, Malaysia, Africa, etc.) or too cold (Nordic countries).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Corbyn going to be self isolated by the weekend

    The only positive thing in this dreadful crisis

    So who will be leading Labour in the meanwhile?

    Although, TBF, if they put my fat lazy old tomcat in as caretaker he would probably do a better job...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    It’s pretty clear what we all should be doing. There is no big difference between advise and order here. If you can stay in, that’s what you should do. End of story. We should not have to waste police time on enforcing this. We should be grown up enough to do it.

    We should, but it's a bit half arsed. He needs to set out what he's going to do to support small businesses. He wants people to avoid pubs and cafés. How do they stay in business?

    Yep, I agree that this is an issue that needs to be dealt with. There are many more on top relating to incomes during this crisis.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037
    Schools staying open? How the feck does that fit with avoiding unnecessary journeys and gatherings?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    The Mcdonald's just down the road is packed, as it always is after school. Let's see what it's like tomorrow

    If Mackies have their chips, we can make that two positives.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    DavidL said:

    There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.

    I honestly think that we are going to need an updated statement from the Chancellor. His budget already seems to be addressing a different world from the one we have. Our businesses need cash injections so that they can (a) keep trading lawfully and (b) keep paying their workforce to help overall demand. This is becoming increasingly urgent.
    I agree. I presume the complexity is boggling minds (“we mustn’t miss someone off”) when the answer might be much simpler and more agricultural.
  • RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Please tell me this government will realize that it has to extend the transition period . How will new infrastructure be done in time now . On both sides of the Channel that’s now an issue .

    And if a deal can’t be reached in time are you going to force business to go to WTO after the catastrophe of this virus .

    Surely they must realize that most people will understand if there’s an extension to the transition . It’s a shame this government didn’t stop playing to the gallery by putting that clause forbidding an extension into its legislation.

    If the Commons shuts down how do you change that .

    I mean there's going to be zero cross-border trade in a few weeks. A perfect time to leave the EU with zero disruption. :)
    Yes, of course. Perpetuating the CV-induced complete lockdown until the end of time is a brilliant proposal, Mr Cummings.
This discussion has been closed.