From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
Yes, it's interesting but very limited in value. Just presumes America will shrug off 3 million extra deaths, and most of them in a short space of time?
Nations will be traumatised. They won't bounce back. Unless we find a good vaccine fear will rule behaviour for a long time, consumption will be subdued. So many things will change, lots of them we won't even be able to guess at
God will be back tho. Go long on church building and buy shares in hymnal printers.
Your book on the Black Death didn’t mention that organised religion emerged damaged, both in numbers and reputation? Yes, there was an outbreak of fervour, but turned toward extreme practice, persecution of minorities, astrologers, and myriad means of spiritual expression that were more intense but also more personal and insular. Arguably kicking off attitudes toward belief that led to the later significant changes in European religion.
So I don’t think there’s any reason to think organised religion will emerge stronger. It’ll also probably be a key route of transmission in the US.
On the former, I would temper anticipation of the many changes I’d personally like to see with the recollection that as the financial crisis broke, the media and Internet were buzzing with analyses of how globalised capitalism was broken and nothing would ever be the same again. Few of the posited changes forecast back then have actually come to pass, and where there have been changes (e.g. in our politics) they were very much a slow burn.
It’s too easy just to say “nothing will ever be the same again”, and is a practice best left to columnists who have an empty page to fill.
Either the government undertakes to keep UK businesses going during this unprecedented health emergency - and their employees in work - or we face a sustained depression once it is over. This is a huge test for Boris Johnson. Let Hancock handle the health issues, the PM has an economy to save. Will he, can he do it?
I fear what might usually sound like hyperbole really isn't.
It isn't. The health implications alone are huge. But the economic ones are just massive. Huge numbers of businesses will be going under over the coming months, solid businesses run by good, responsible people who pay decent wages, but who rely on a healthy cashflow and never factored a global pandemic into their plans. When they go south, people lose their jobs, demand drops, communities fragment and depression ensues. The cost of that will be far, far greater than any the government - and us taxpayers subsequently - will have to bear to prevent it.
UK mortality rate is now 3.5%, much nearer to Italy than Germany. We need that to come down.
And this is before our health system collapses.
Although the total number of cases figure is probably not reliable now. Paradoxically, the higher it is the lower the mortality rate is, assuming the number of deaths figure is correct.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt. Given interest rates are likely to remain hyper-low for the forseeable future, they should be taking all possible means.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
Situations like this remind us that there are some significant cultural differences between Britain and continental Europe, let alone Asia. We really don't get along well with seriously authoritarian measures outside of wartime.
The old joke - what's the difference between Britain, Germany and Switzerland?
In Britain, if it's not prohibited, it's allowed. In Germany, if it's not allowed, it's prohibited. In Switzerland, if it's not prohibited, it's mandatory.
In the United States everything is permitted, unless it is prohibited. In Germany everything is prohibited, unless it is permitted. In Italy, everything is permitted, Even what is prohibited. In the Soviet Union everything is prohibited, even what is permitted.
I like the Italian and Soviet additions. Before glasnost and the fall of the Wall, there was a Russian joke I liked which somewhat falls flat these days.
A questionnaire was sent out asking: Where were you born? Where were you educated? Where do you live? and Where would you like to live?
The answers came back: St Petersburg Petrograd Leningrad St Petersburg
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Horrific death figures in italy, but again more signs the rate of growth is slowing - 13% today, the lowest yet. A week ago it was mid 20s.
Maybe just signs of light at the end of the tunnel.
The lock down will reduce the rate of growth in the numbers. Whether it ultimately reduces the number of cases is more up for grabs. I would expect at least the rate of new cases in Italy to slow by the end of the week. Deaths will very much be a lagging indicator.
Lockdowns in Hubei lowered R0 very rapidly.
Why wouldn't they have the same effect in Italy. You can basically infect your family, and that's about it.
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
Situations like this remind us that there are some significant cultural differences between Britain and continental Europe, let alone Asia. We really don't get along well with seriously authoritarian measures outside of wartime.
The old joke - what's the difference between Britain, Germany and Switzerland?
In Britain, if it's not prohibited, it's allowed. In Germany, if it's not allowed, it's prohibited. In Switzerland, if it's not prohibited, it's mandatory.
In the United States everything is permitted, unless it is prohibited. In Germany everything is prohibited, unless it is permitted. In Italy, everything is permitted, Even what is prohibited. In the Soviet Union everything is prohibited, even what is permitted.
I like the Italian and Soviet additions. Before glasnost and the fall of the Wall, there was a Russian joke I liked which somewhat falls flat these days.
A questionnaire was sent out asking: Where were you born? Where were you educated? Where do you live? and Where would you like to live?
The answers came back: St Petersburg Petrograd Leningrad St Petersburg
How was Communism different from Tsarism?
Under Tsarism power went from father to son.
Under Communism it went from grandfather to grandfather.
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
Yes, it's interesting but very limited in value. Just presumes America will shrug off 3 million extra deaths, and most of them in a short space of time?
Nations will be traumatised. They won't bounce back. Unless we find a good vaccine fear will rule behaviour for a long time, consumption will be subdued. So many things will change, lots of them we won't even be able to guess at
God will be back tho. Go long on church building and buy shares in hymnal printers.
Your book on the Black Death didn’t mention that organised religion emerged damaged, both in numbers and reputation? Yes, there was an outbreak of fervour, but turned toward extreme practice, persecution of minorities, astrologers, and myriad means of spiritual expression that were more intense but also more personal and insular. Arguably kicking off attitudes toward belief that led to the later significant changes in European religion.
So I don’t think there’s any reason to think organised religion will emerge stronger. It’ll also probably be a key route of transmission in the US.
On the former, I would temper anticipation of the many changes I’d personally like to see with the recollection that as the financial crisis broke, the media and Internet were buzzing with analyses of how globalised capitalism was broken and nothing would ever be the same again. Few of the posited changes forecast back then have actually come to pass, and where there have been changes (e.g. in our politics) they were very much a slow burn.
It’s too easy just to say “nothing will ever be the same again”, and is a practice best left to columnists who have an empty page to fill.
The church I went to on Sunday was already switching to live streaming rather than attendance in person for older congregation members
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt.
So did the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe and the Confederate States of America.
Horrific death figures in italy, but again more signs the rate of growth is slowing - 13% today, the lowest yet. A week ago it was mid 20s.
Maybe just signs of light at the end of the tunnel.
The lock down will reduce the rate of growth in the numbers. Whether it ultimately reduces the number of cases is more up for grabs. I would expect at least the rate of new cases in Italy to slow by the end of the week. Deaths will very much be a lagging indicator.
Lockdowns in Hubei lowered R0 very rapidly.
Why wouldn't they have the same effect in Italy. You can basically infect your family, and that's about it.
I can see you don’t know any actual Italians, then?
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
Situations like this remind us that there are some significant cultural differences between Britain and continental Europe, let alone Asia. We really don't get along well with seriously authoritarian measures outside of wartime.
The old joke - what's the difference between Britain, Germany and Switzerland?
In Britain, if it's not prohibited, it's allowed. In Germany, if it's not allowed, it's prohibited. In Switzerland, if it's not prohibited, it's mandatory.
In the United States everything is permitted, unless it is prohibited. In Germany everything is prohibited, unless it is permitted. In Italy, everything is permitted, Even what is prohibited. In the Soviet Union everything is prohibited, even what is permitted.
I like the Italian and Soviet additions. Before glasnost and the fall of the Wall, there was a Russian joke I liked which somewhat falls flat these days.
A questionnaire was sent out asking: Where were you born? Where were you educated? Where do you live? and Where would you like to live?
The answers came back: St Petersburg Petrograd Leningrad St Petersburg
How was Communism different from Tsarism?
Under Tsarism power went from father to son.
Under Communism it went from grandfather to grandfather.
Just watched the presser... I like what Boris says, we are grown ups, we shouldn’t have to be ordered by force of law to stay in when the government are more or less telling us it’s the only way to save lives. Honestly the press are like children
Rather different to most other countries where people are being threatened with arrest or being rounded up by the army.
Situations like this remind us that there are some significant cultural differences between Britain and continental Europe, let alone Asia. We really don't get along well with seriously authoritarian measures outside of wartime.
The old joke - what's the difference between Britain, Germany and Switzerland?
In Britain, if it's not prohibited, it's allowed. In Germany, if it's not allowed, it's prohibited. In Switzerland, if it's not prohibited, it's mandatory.
In the United States everything is permitted, unless it is prohibited. In Germany everything is prohibited, unless it is permitted. In Italy, everything is permitted, Even what is prohibited. In the Soviet Union everything is prohibited, even what is permitted.
I like the Italian and Soviet additions. Before glasnost and the fall of the Wall, there was a Russian joke I liked which somewhat falls flat these days.
A questionnaire was sent out asking: Where were you born? Where were you educated? Where do you live? and Where would you like to live?
The answers came back: St Petersburg Petrograd Leningrad St Petersburg
How was Communism different from Tsarism?
Under Tsarism power went from father to son.
Under Communism it went from grandfather to grandfather.
Either the government undertakes to keep UK businesses going during this unprecedented health emergency - and their employees in work - or we face a sustained depression once it is over. This is a huge test for Boris Johnson. Let Hancock handle the health issues, the PM has an economy to save. Will he, can he do it?
I fear what might usually sound like hyperbole really isn't.
It isn't. The health implications alone are huge. But the economic ones are just massive. Huge numbers of businesses will be going under over the coming months, solid businesses run by good, responsible people who pay decent wages, but who rely on a healthy cashflow and never factored a global pandemic into their plans. When they go south, people lose their jobs, demand drops, communities fragment and depression ensues. The cost of that will be far, far greater than any the government - and us taxpayers subsequently - will have to bear to prevent it.
All very true
I think it was Ireland that is already laying off twenty thousand plus in the hospitality industry - after only a couple of days
The aviation industry is potentially going to be wrecked as well
Horrific death figures in italy, but again more signs the rate of growth is slowing - 13% today, the lowest yet. A week ago it was mid 20s.
Maybe just signs of light at the end of the tunnel.
The lock down will reduce the rate of growth in the numbers. Whether it ultimately reduces the number of cases is more up for grabs. I would expect at least the rate of new cases in Italy to slow by the end of the week. Deaths will very much be a lagging indicator.
Lockdowns in Hubei lowered R0 very rapidly.
Why wouldn't they have the same effect in Italy. You can basically infect your family, and that's about it.
Because they're Italians, not Chinese.
While it may lower the R0 initially by a lot, I am dubious about the efficacy after a few weeks.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt. Given interest rates are likely to remain hyper-low for the forseeable future, they should be taking all possible means.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
Without increasing production though just printing money leads to hyper inflation, agree on credit card interest rates
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt.
So did the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe and the Confederate States of America.
That didn’t save them from bankruptcy.
Each of those had / have debts that needed to be paid off in a different currency from what they could print. The Weimar Republic, for example, had to pay war reparations based on Gold Deutsche Marks pre-WWI. When your debts are in the same currency as you can print (as is the case with UK Gilts), you print more. That is why the Fed and the BoE have been so comfortable with QE.
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
Yes, it's interesting but very limited in value. Just presumes America will shrug off 3 million extra deaths, and most of them in a short space of time?
Nations will be traumatised. They won't bounce back. Unless we find a good vaccine fear will rule behaviour for a long time, consumption will be subdued. So many things will change, lots of them we won't even be able to guess at
God will be back tho. Go long on church building and buy shares in hymnal printers.
Your book on the Black Death didn’t mention that organised religion emerged damaged, both in numbers and reputation? Yes, there was an outbreak of fervour, but turned toward extreme practice, persecution of minorities, astrologers, and myriad means of spiritual expression that were more intense but also more personal and insular. Arguably kicking off attitudes toward belief that led to the later significant changes in European religion.
So I don’t think there’s any reason to think organised religion will emerge stronger. It’ll also probably be a key route of transmission in the US.
On the former, I would temper anticipation of the many changes I’d personally like to see with the recollection that as the financial crisis broke, the media and Internet were buzzing with analyses of how globalised capitalism was broken and nothing would ever be the same again. Few of the posited changes forecast back then have actually come to pass, and where there have been changes (e.g. in our politics) they were very much a slow burn.
It’s too easy just to say “nothing will ever be the same again”, and is a practice best left to columnists who have an empty page to fill.
The church I went to on Sunday was already switching to live streaming rather than attendance in person for older congregation members
And BACS transfer in place of the collection plate?
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
It sounds extraordinarily credible and not at all like whistling in the dark.
My gut reaction to this is that it is incredibly optimistic - global growth, not even recession. It strikes me as a very narrow look at the financial fundamentals, without considering social reactions and other 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc... order impacts.
Edit: that said, I hope it's correct.
My Germanity may be the reason why the sarcastic intent of my comment was too sublime to be detected by you.
Not just Germans, I frequently miss irony and sarcasm in posts. Without the vocal tones, it is way harder to pick up.
Therein lies the tragedy of the Internet, and thus our times.
Watched the press conference. To be honest that was 15-20 minutes well spent. If I could just stop myself reading bullshit journalism/medium articles, I think I'd be a lot happier.
I still can’t find out what was said about those with underlying conditions? I couldn’t watch the announcement and can’t find anything in the initial reports.
Prof Whitty said the group of people who should take "particular care to minimise their social contact" were:
People over the age of 70
Other adults who would normally be advised to have the flu vaccine (such as those with chronic diseases)
Pregnant women
"Those are the groups we want to take particular care to minimise their social contact which of course will have very significant risks for them."
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt. Given interest rates are likely to remain hyper-low for the forseeable future, they should be taking all possible means.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
Without increasing production though just printing money leads to hyper inflation
In which case, we should have had massive hyper-inflation already because of QE. In one sense, we have in terms of the stock market (pre-the crash). But, for most consumers, there is not hyper-inflation nor are there any signs we will any time soon. Which tells you we can do this.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt.
So did the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe and the Confederate States of America.
That didn’t save them from bankruptcy.
Each of those had / have debts that needed to be paid off in a different currency from what they could print. The Weimar Republic, for example, had to pay war reparations based on Gold Deutsche Marks pre-WWI. When your debts are in the same currency as you can print (as is the case with UK Gilts), you print more. That is why the Fed and the BoE have been so comfortable with QE.
Yes, we've already had rather a lot of money-printing in the last few years. Because the nature of it has been so socially and democratically damaging, for limited economic gain, and because the specifics of this situation mean it may also simply help less in economic terms than directing money elsewhere, the rhetoric of the past may have to be ditched to save society and the economy.
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
Yes, it's interesting but very limited in value. Just presumes America will shrug off 3 million extra deaths, and most of them in a short space of time?
Nations will be traumatised. They won't bounce back. Unless we find a good vaccine fear will rule behaviour for a long time, consumption will be subdued. So many things will change, lots of them we won't even be able to guess at
God will be back tho. Go long on church building and buy shares in hymnal printers.
Your book on the Black Death didn’t mention that organised religion emerged damaged, both in numbers and reputation? Yes, there was an outbreak of fervour, but turned toward extreme practice, persecution of minorities, astrologers, and myriad means of spiritual expression that were more intense but also more personal and insular. Arguably kicking off attitudes toward belief that led to the later significant changes in European religion.
So I don’t think there’s any reason to think organised religion will emerge stronger. It’ll also probably be a key route of transmission in the US.
On the former, I would temper anticipation of the many changes I’d personally like to see with the recollection that as the financial crisis broke, the media and Internet were buzzing with analyses of how globalised capitalism was broken and nothing would ever be the same again. Few of the posited changes forecast back then have actually come to pass, and where there have been changes (e.g. in our politics) they were very much a slow burn.
It’s too easy just to say “nothing will ever be the same again”, and is a practice best left to columnists who have an empty page to fill.
The church I went to on Sunday was already switching to live streaming rather than attendance in person for older congregation members
If I were you I would drop out before they get on to self flagellation.
Either the government undertakes to keep UK businesses going during this unprecedented health emergency - and their employees in work - or we face a sustained depression once it is over. This is a huge test for Boris Johnson. Let Hancock handle the health issues, the PM has an economy to save. Will he, can he do it?
I fear what might usually sound like hyperbole really isn't.
It isn't. The health implications alone are huge. But the economic ones are just massive. Huge numbers of businesses will be going under over the coming months, solid businesses run by good, responsible people who pay decent wages, but who rely on a healthy cashflow and never factored a global pandemic into their plans. When they go south, people lose their jobs, demand drops, communities fragment and depression ensues. The cost of that will be far, far greater than any the government - and us taxpayers subsequently - will have to bear to prevent it.
I know. It's crazy and scary, and this is the biggest crisis I think now since WW2 for the world.
Nothing should be off the table in terms of how we see this through.
Jeremy Hunt in the Commons wants bars, restaurants, pubs and clubs to be told to close.
Well the term avoid is very weak, I will still go to the pub until it is forcibly closed, maybe I am being selfish, but I think most people will still go out and enjoy themselves until forcibly stopped.
Schools staying open? How the feck does that fit with avoiding unnecessary journeys and gatherings?
Schools might not be considered unnecessary gatherings?
We are not in normal times.
Closing schools might make the virus spread more, as kids are scattered into playdates, child care facilities and work places. Allowing the parents who can actually keep them home to do so while keeping them open for others might be the right balance.
In Los Angeles, they've closed the schools, but setup centres for parents who can't look after their kids during the day, which also serve lunch.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt. Given interest rates are likely to remain hyper-low for the forseeable future, they should be taking all possible means.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
Jeremy Hunt in the Commons wants bars, restaurants, pubs and clubs to be told to close.
Well the term avoid is very weak, I will still go to the pub until it is forcibly closed, maybe I am being selfish, but I think most people will still go out and enjoy themselves until forcibly stopped.
I take my dad to the pub every Sunday. Last Sunday is was as busy as ever; not so yesterday.
Schools staying open? How the feck does that fit with avoiding unnecessary journeys and gatherings?
Schools might not be considered unnecessary gatherings?
We are not in normal times.
Closing schools might make the virus spread more, as kids are scattered into playdates, child care facilities and work places. Allowing the parents who can actually keep them home to do so while keeping them open for others might be the right balance.
In Los Angeles, they've closed the schools, but setup centres for parents who can't look after their kids during the day, which also serve lunch.
That seems like a nice balance.
Our kids are climbing the walls.
Glad to hear they’ve found a way of getting healthy indoor exercise.
Jeremy Hunt in the Commons wants bars, restaurants, pubs and clubs to be told to close.
Well the term avoid is very weak, I will still go to the pub until it is forcibly closed, maybe I am being selfish, but I think most people will still go out and enjoy themselves until forcibly stopped.
Yes it is selfish but you make your own decisions. If it was warm enough to be outside then it might be fine, anyway time for our 20:00 hour tribute to frontline workers,
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt.
So did the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe and the Confederate States of America.
That didn’t save them from bankruptcy.
Each of those had / have debts that needed to be paid off in a different currency from what they could print. The Weimar Republic, for example, had to pay war reparations based on Gold Deutsche Marks pre-WWI. When your debts are in the same currency as you can print (as is the case with UK Gilts), you print more. That is why the Fed and the BoE have been so comfortable with QE.
Yes, we've actually had rather a lot of money-printing already in the last years. Because the nature of it has been so socially and democratically damaging, with limited economic benefit, and because the specifics of this situation mean it may simply help less than directing money elsewhere, the rhetoric of the past may have to be gone in order to save a society and economy.
I agree with that. If I was the BoE, I would stop relying on the Banks and, in effect, go straight to consumers with the money. So take a haircut off their debts (mortgage, credit cards etc) and provide some form of Universal Basic Income. It would be a much better way of kickstarting the economy / helping consumers than giving it to financial institutions where helping the consumer is the least of their priorities (case one: I am remortgaging with Barclays - according to my mortgage advisor, Barclays will do everything it can to not pass on the base rate cut).
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt. Given interest rates are likely to remain hyper-low for the forseeable future, they should be taking all possible means.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
Without increasing production though just printing money leads to hyper inflation
In which case, we should have had massive hyper-inflation already because of QE. In one sense, we have in terms of the stock market (pre-the crash). But, for most consumers, there is not hyper-inflation nor are there any signs we will any time soon. Which tells you we can do this.
No as those extra funds went to banks to fund loans to businesses not to people sitting at home not working who will then spend even more on food leading to even higher food prices and food shortages
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt. Given interest rates are likely to remain hyper-low for the forseeable future, they should be taking all possible means.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt. Given interest rates are likely to remain hyper-low for the forseeable future, they should be taking all possible means.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
Without increasing production though just printing money leads to hyper inflation
In which case, we should have had massive hyper-inflation already because of QE. In one sense, we have in terms of the stock market (pre-the crash). But, for most consumers, there is not hyper-inflation nor are there any signs we will any time soon. Which tells you we can do this.
No as those extra funds went to banks to fund loans to businesses not to people sitting at home not working who will then spend even more on food leading to even higher food prices and food shortages
Again, if it was the case as you state, then the UK and the US should have seen accelerating growth because the banks were pumping so much into loans to businesses that the economy was taken off. In the UK, it hasn't been the case (we can all blame Brexit but that amount of money should have had some sort of impact regardless) and what got the US going was Trump's tax cuts, not QE.
QE is a bonanza for rich people and investment banks, everyone else gets the scraps.
I still can’t find out what was said about those with underlying conditions? I couldn’t watch the announcement and can’t find anything in the initial reports.
Prof Whitty said the group of people who should take "particular care to minimise their social contact" were:
People over the age of 70
Other adults who would normally be advised to have the flu vaccine (such as those with chronic diseases)
Pregnant women
"Those are the groups we want to take particular care to minimise their social contact which of course will have very significant risks for them."
WTF? They really do want hypertensives and people like me dead. What's the chance they suddenly realised that the significant comorbidity list included too many people and scrambled to find a way of cutting it down? This really is getting beyond a joke now (150/110 and I'm taking the max dose I'm allowed, if the virus doesn't get me the stroke/heart attack will!)
From an acquaintance: Just got off a Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
That’s the sort of short-term heavy analysis you’d expect from a financier, unused to contemplating the longer term impact of systemic and cultural changes.
It sounds extraordinarily credible and not at all like whistling in the dark.
My gut reaction to this is that it is incredibly optimistic - global growth, not even recession. It strikes me as a very narrow look at the financial fundamentals, without considering social reactions and other 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc... order impacts.
Edit: that said, I hope it's correct.
The 2% global growth is going to be simply wrong.
The US will see its economy contract this year, as will China, as will the EU.
Now, it's possible that China has a great second half (wouldn't surprise me a bit), but it's not going to have increased economic output for the year given how that 1H is going to be meaningfully down.
Schools staying open? How the feck does that fit with avoiding unnecessary journeys and gatherings?
Schools might not be considered unnecessary gatherings?
We are not in normal times.
Closing schools might make the virus spread more, as kids are scattered into playdates, child care facilities and work places. Allowing the parents who can actually keep them home to do so while keeping them open for others might be the right balance.
In Los Angeles, they've closed the schools, but setup centres for parents who can't look after their kids during the day, which also serve lunch.
That seems like a nice balance.
Our kids are climbing the walls.
Have they thought what to call these new centres - 'schools' perhaps?
There is nowhere near enough on what people are supposed to do regarding getting paid. If this continues for 4 weeks there will be 10 million people not working.
Sick pay if they cannot work at home which the Budget guaranteed
Sick pay is not enough in this crisis
I am afraid it will have to be, if you cannot work from home the government cannot afford to pay all other workers more than sick pay and a survival income for the next few months.
It is possible the government could suspend mortgage payments as Italy has or suspend evictions for non payment of rents as California has to cut peoples costs but it cannot afford to do more than that
No it does not.
In this crisis sickness pay must be the equivalent to the workers weekly wage
Impossible, it would bankrupt the country. As I said sick pay and maybe suspension of mortgage payments and evictions for non payment of rents for those who cannot work at home is about the best the government can do
Not technically true. The UK, like the US, prints its own money, technically it can't go bankrupt. Given interest rates are likely to remain hyper-low for the forseeable future, they should be taking all possible means.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
Without increasing production though just printing money leads to hyper inflation
In which case, we should have had massive hyper-inflation already because of QE. In one sense, we have in terms of the stock market (pre-the crash). But, for most consumers, there is not hyper-inflation nor are there any signs we will any time soon. Which tells you we can do this.
No as those extra funds went to banks to fund loans to businesses not to people sitting at home not working who will then spend even more on food leading to even higher food prices and food shortages
Again, if it was the case as you state, then the UK and the US should have seen accelerating growth because the banks were pumping so much into loans to businesses that the economy was taken off. In the UK, it hasn't been the case (we can all blame Brexit but that amount of money should have had some sort of impact regardless) and what got the US going was Trump's tax cuts, not QE.
QE is a bonanza for rich people and investment banks, everyone else gets the scraps.
Wrong again, the economy grew over the last decade against expectations
There is a video from RT (I'm not going to post as it is a propaganda outfit) but it is extremely disturbing. It's not people dying in corridors or hazmat suits. No it is British tourists in Benidorm doing what British tourists do in Benidorm, defying the lock down and boozing in parks.
I think the nudge nudge strategies of the government are working well so far. But these cretins will test it to destruction.
I hope they fall into line. But if they don't, I wouldn't be against some cracking of skulls.
I've also heard disturbing stories of people fighting over bags of SUGAR in Manchester yesterday. A couple taking home 4 bags wasn't enough apparently.
Horrific death figures in italy, but again more signs the rate of growth is slowing - 13% today, the lowest yet. A week ago it was mid 20s.
Maybe just signs of light at the end of the tunnel.
The lock down will reduce the rate of growth in the numbers. Whether it ultimately reduces the number of cases is more up for grabs. I would expect at least the rate of new cases in Italy to slow by the end of the week. Deaths will very much be a lagging indicator.
Lockdowns in Hubei lowered R0 very rapidly.
Why wouldn't they have the same effect in Italy. You can basically infect your family, and that's about it.
Didn't China have lockdowns, but also intensive testing, and anyone with the virus taken away from their family?
I take it all back. This government is completely out of its depth. What a shambles.
Stop sniding pathetically at the sidelines, we are heading for a national emergency we di not need pointless point scoring
Yeah, so tell the Government to get its bloody act together. It’s pathetic.
What more would you have them do? We've just fired our nuclear weapon.
I want them to be f*cking clear about what people should be doing. I want them to be clear about what businesses should do. I want them to put proposals in place to mitigate any problems, such as mortgage or interest holidays.
I take it all back. This government is completely out of its depth. What a shambles.
Stop sniding pathetically at the sidelines, we are heading for a national emergency we di not need pointless point scoring
Yeah, so tell the Government to get its bloody act together. It’s pathetic.
What more would you have them do? We've just fired our nuclear weapon.
I want them to be f*cking clear about what people should be doing. I want them to be clear about what businesses should do. I want them to put proposals in place to mitigate any problems, such as mortgage or interest holidays.
I want them to actually communicate clearly.
They are but they can't provide guidance on every micro decision. They are generals setting the framework and strategy. Decision making on tactics in particular areas ideally need to be made by the commanding officers at the right level.
This is a war. People need to start thinking for themselves a bit too. I know a lot of us have forgotten how to do that.
Schools staying open? How the feck does that fit with avoiding unnecessary journeys and gatherings?
Schools might not be considered unnecessary gatherings?
We are not in normal times.
Closing schools might make the virus spread more, as kids are scattered into playdates, child care facilities and work places. Allowing the parents who can actually keep them home to do so while keeping them open for others might be the right balance.
In Los Angeles, they've closed the schools, but setup centres for parents who can't look after their kids during the day, which also serve lunch.
That seems like a nice balance.
Our kids are climbing the walls.
Have they thought what to call these new centres - 'schools' perhaps?
Governor Larry Hogan announces bars and restaurants in MD to be closed.
Schools staying open? How the feck does that fit with avoiding unnecessary journeys and gatherings?
Schools might not be considered unnecessary gatherings?
We are not in normal times.
Closing schools might make the virus spread more, as kids are scattered into playdates, child care facilities and work places. Allowing the parents who can actually keep them home to do so while keeping them open for others might be the right balance.
In Los Angeles, they've closed the schools, but setup centres for parents who can't look after their kids during the day, which also serve lunch.
That seems like a nice balance.
Our kids are climbing the walls.
Have they thought what to call these new centres - 'schools' perhaps?
Governor Larry Hogan announces bars and restaurants in MD to be closed.
UK mortality rate is now 3.5%, much nearer to Italy than Germany. We need that to come down.
And this is before our health system collapses.
But if they estimate 10 to 20 times more mild / symptomless cases, then is 0.175% to 0.35%. Though until people have recovered you cant really measure the ratio. Not that I know anything...
I take it all back. This government is completely out of its depth. What a shambles.
Stop sniding pathetically at the sidelines, we are heading for a national emergency we di not need pointless point scoring
Yeah, so tell the Government to get its bloody act together. It’s pathetic.
What more would you have them do? We've just fired our nuclear weapon.
I want them to be f*cking clear about what people should be doing. I want them to be clear about what businesses should do. I want them to put proposals in place to mitigate any problems, such as mortgage or interest holidays.
I want them to actually communicate clearly.
Back in the financial crash it was us, the ordinary people (sorry Charles) who pulled the banks out of the do-do. Now it's surely the turn of the banks to make the necessary arrangements to ensure that business, at ground level, can struggle through and come out the other side.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte warned in a televised address to the nation that most residents would get coronavirus, but he ruled out a full lockdown like other European countries.
Rutte says his government wants to build "group immunity" while waiting for a vaccine, by letting the least vulnerable people catch the virus while protecting the elderly and sick.
This could take "months, or even longer", he added.
Comments
So I don’t think there’s any reason to think organised religion will emerge stronger. It’ll also probably be a key route of transmission in the US.
On the former, I would temper anticipation of the many changes I’d personally like to see with the recollection that as the financial crisis broke, the media and Internet were buzzing with analyses of how globalised capitalism was broken and nothing would ever be the same again. Few of the posited changes forecast back then have actually come to pass, and where there have been changes (e.g. in our politics) they were very much a slow burn.
It’s too easy just to say “nothing will ever be the same again”, and is a practice best left to columnists who have an empty page to fill.
One thing they should do immediately is limit credit card interest rates to 5%. It is ridiculous in this interest rate environment, firms can charge in the high-20s.
On credit cards, total CC debts stand at £72bn. The Government could easily afford to wipe those out or pay for a 50% haircut. It would probably do more for the economy / consumers directly than the £435bn in QE spent since 2016 which is a carry trade for rich investors - you borrow at close to nothing and you invest in assets going up considerably more.
A questionnaire was sent out asking: Where were you born? Where were you educated? Where do you live? and Where would you like to live?
The answers came back:
St Petersburg
Petrograd
Leningrad
St Petersburg
Why wouldn't they have the same effect in Italy. You can basically infect your family, and that's about it.
Under Tsarism power went from father to son.
Under Communism it went from grandfather to grandfather.
That didn’t save them from bankruptcy.
I think it was Ireland that is already laying off twenty thousand plus in the hospitality industry - after only a couple of days
The aviation industry is potentially going to be wrecked as well
While it may lower the R0 initially by a lot, I am dubious about the efficacy after a few weeks.
People over the age of 70
Other adults who would normally be advised to have the flu vaccine (such as those with chronic diseases)
Pregnant women
"Those are the groups we want to take particular care to minimise their social contact which of course will have very significant risks for them."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51917562
Edit/ although in your case...
Edit2/...you’re already an expert!
Nothing should be off the table in terms of how we see this through.
That seems like a nice balance.
Our kids are climbing the walls.
Banks charging 40% on arranged overdrafts - should be made illegal immediately and it baffles me it hasn't been already. As bad as payday loan sharks.
NEW THREAD
QE is a bonanza for rich people and investment banks, everyone else gets the scraps.
The US will see its economy contract this year, as will China, as will the EU.
Now, it's possible that China has a great second half (wouldn't surprise me a bit), but it's not going to have increased economic output for the year given how that 1H is going to be meaningfully down.
I think the nudge nudge strategies of the government are working well so far. But these cretins will test it to destruction.
I hope they fall into line. But if they don't, I wouldn't be against some cracking of skulls.
I've also heard disturbing stories of people fighting over bags of SUGAR in Manchester yesterday. A couple taking home 4 bags wasn't enough apparently.
I want them to actually communicate clearly.
This is a war. People need to start thinking for themselves a bit too. I know a lot of us have forgotten how to do that.
https://governor.maryland.gov/2020/03/16/governor-hogan-orders-closure-of-bars-and-restaurants-announces-unprecedented-public-health-surge-to-combat-covid-19-crisis/
Rutte says his government wants to build "group immunity" while waiting for a vaccine, by letting the least vulnerable people catch the virus while protecting the elderly and sick.
This could take "months, or even longer", he added.
Cheers, Gidz, summed up in two sentences.