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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now former betting favourite, Elizabeth Warren, quits the race

SystemSystem Posts: 12,597
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now former betting favourite, Elizabeth Warren, quits the race

BREAKING: Elizabeth Warren is dropping out of the presidential race, ending a campaign that at one point seemed poised to win the Democratic nominationhttps://t.co/N8NE1MlcvA

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    It's down to one realistically.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    edited March 2020
    First Second - unlike Elizabeth. Shame.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My Girl Is Not a Quitter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    She seemed a decent performer, but had no chance of bouncing back like Biden. I wonder how she'd have done without an upstart Buttegieg not waiting his turn. Not much overlap between them, apparently, but he took up attention and money.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    slade said:

    It appears there are no local by-elections today. Perhaps they will all be cancelled!

    Noooooooo!

    My local council has tow coming up in the next few weeks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    115 cases.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1235595937529151488?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,012
    25 of the 30 are in London.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Does this help Sanders?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    Time to seal it off? :p
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    Nuke from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    edited March 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    Nuke from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
    For the greater good.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Are there any figures for what proportion of the 115 UK cases have not been mild or asymptomatic (i.e. have required significant treatment)?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,269
    edited March 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I have moved Upminster back to Essex after it's brief spell in East London
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    edited March 2020
    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    Nuke from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
    If it was Luton or Staines, I doubt most people could tell the difference before and after such an approach.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    It's the right decision from Warren. There was no way she could avoid going down to thumping defeat after defeat now, which could only have damaged her. By suspending her campaign now, she is actually in a better place to re-enter at a later date should that be necessary, for whatever reason, than if she kept running. It also better places her as a unity candidate (and a not-X candidate, from either side) having not gone on an ego trip after her campaign was clearly doomed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    edited March 2020
    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,137
    I am still clutching a fiver on Gabbard.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Benpointer said:

    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.

    Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. kle4, I tend to categorise mine according to genre, but also in historical order.

    I'm going to have to reorder my shelves soon to make space for the Lancaster and York book I'm reading currently.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    No one uses Dewey decimal?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,952
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.

    Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
    For once, he is more right than the experts! (Well some of them, probably, and only on a very limited question.)
  • northernpowerhouse2northernpowerhouse2 Posts: 190
    slade said:

    It appears there are no local by-elections today. Perhaps they will all be cancelled!

    Almost inevitable that we will see either a 2001 style postponement or a 2004 all postal vote.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,754
    Real shame. She would have been a great President and perhaps the most unifying for the Democratic party.

    I wonder if Bernie will look back and think, if only I'd backed her rather than running myself.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.

    Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
    There may be. But who knows.

    Also, how many of the 102 surviving diagnosed cases in the USA may yet succumb?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    northernpowerhouse2 said:

    slade said:

    It appears there are no local by-elections today. Perhaps they will all be cancelled!

    Almost inevitable that we will see either a 2001 style postponement or a 2004 all postal vote.
    What could be better than tens of millions of ballot papers licked by infected voters percolating through the postal system. :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Does this help Sanders?

    A bit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.

    Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
    There may be. But who knows.

    Also, how many of the 102 surviving diagnosed cases in the USA may yet succumb?
    I'd argue the denominator is far more important at determining the fatality rate than the numerator.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,952
    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    Mix of genre, read or not, size and colour. On their own, none of them are sufficient.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    Interesting that the percentages add up to 118, would not have guessed that so many people still had bookshelves.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,012
    RobD said:

    northernpowerhouse2 said:

    slade said:

    It appears there are no local by-elections today. Perhaps they will all be cancelled!

    Almost inevitable that we will see either a 2001 style postponement or a 2004 all postal vote.
    What could be better than tens of millions of ballot papers licked by infected voters percolating through the postal system. :p
    Electronic voting is your friend.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    northernpowerhouse2 said:

    slade said:

    It appears there are no local by-elections today. Perhaps they will all be cancelled!

    Almost inevitable that we will see either a 2001 style postponement or a 2004 all postal vote.
    What could be better than tens of millions of ballot papers licked by infected voters percolating through the postal system. :p
    Electronic voting is your friend.
    Says Mr V Putin of Moscow....
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    An expert political observer comments:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235598653114511360
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,012
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    No one uses Dewey decimal?
    Could be the 5% 'Other'.

    I feel concerned for the 2% who don't know if they organise their books by any system or not.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Watch out Italy, we are fast on your tracks.

    I predict the British public will go from not giving a toss to mad panic within a couple of days.

    Please just wash your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering. That would be a start.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    edited March 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
    I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
    Can they please just wait until after Saturday's England Wales game, for which I have tickets?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    rkrkrk said:

    Real shame. She would have been a great President and perhaps the most unifying for the Democratic party.

    I wonder if Bernie will look back and think, if only I'd backed her rather than running myself.

    Is a man who runs for a party he is not a committed member of, twice, at the age of 78, very self reflective I wonder?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    Lay Hillary Clinton, it pays more than your savings account.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
    I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
    Did you let them know? :wink:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
    I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
    Did you let them know? :wink:
    No, I put bolted the doors from the outside :-)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Biden and Bernie - two very old men on vanity trips
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    In non-US or virus news, this is quite a ruling:
    https://twitter.com/kirkkorner/status/1235597420584521728
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    An expert political observer comments:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235598653114511360

    He's probably right. As was his COVID19 mortality rate tweet.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,559
    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    No one uses Dewey decimal?
    Could be the 5% 'Other'.

    I feel concerned for the 2% who don't know if they organise their books by any system or not.
    People that have entrusted organisation of their books to their stranger/more obsessive significant other? My wife's books a arranged alphabetically by author (fiction) and by subject (non-fiction), but I'm not sure whether she knows that!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    noneoftheabove said:

    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    Mix of genre, read or not, size and colour. On their own, none of them are sufficient.
    Perhaps. I have a non-fiction case and the many fiction ones, that's as far as I go organising by genre.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. Smithson, to be fair, it worked for Trump last time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    edited March 2020
    As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.

    17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.

    ------

    So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    northernpowerhouse2 said:

    slade said:

    It appears there are no local by-elections today. Perhaps they will all be cancelled!

    Almost inevitable that we will see either a 2001 style postponement or a 2004 all postal vote.
    What could be better than tens of millions of ballot papers licked by infected voters percolating through the postal system. :p
    Electronic voting is your friend.
    So says California, where it’s going to take them more than a month to “finalise” the primary numbers. Hope no-one is betting on the outcome?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,627
    edited March 2020
    So is that exponential, logistic, hyperbolic, chaotic or some other growth curve I-feel-I-should-understand-but-don't-fully?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,230
    Morris_Dancer said:

    In non-US or virus news, this is quite a ruling:
    https://twitter.com/kirkkorner/status/1235597420584521728

    No doubt he and Dubai will respond in measured fashion to the ruling.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited March 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    Yes I suggested 48 hours ago that I reckoned it was now spreading fast. Well, 'rampant' was the admittedly strong word. This all chimes with the Gov't's stated new tactic to try to divert the peak into the summer months.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,629
    Mysticrose said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    Yes I suggested 48 hours ago that I reckoned it was now spreading fast. Well, 'rampant' was the admittedly strong word. This all chimes with the Gov't's stated new tactic to try to divert the peak into the summer months.
    Delay is a new tactic? I thought they were using an existing strategy, not something new.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited March 2020
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.

    17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.

    ------

    So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.

    Perhaps. But if you have flu like symptoms and have not been abroad recently are you likely to get checked out?

    What about if you have flu like symptoms and have just got back from Italy?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    No one uses Dewey decimal?
    Could be the 5% 'Other'.

    I feel concerned for the 2% who don't know if they organise their books by any system or not.
    I deliberately don't order mine and take great delight in not doing so. I have novels by John le Carre scattered amongst tomes like Thatcher: The Downing Street Years and Harry Potter. Hemingway sits next to Churchill, A Guide to Vietnam alongside The Thorn Birds.

    It's deliciously subversive and, per contra, tends to draw fingers clutching for the spines.

    My old English teacher taught me that books are for reading, not to look pretty or impressive.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,351
    So Gabbard with her mighty 1 delegate is the last woman standing!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    GideonWise said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.

    17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.

    ------

    So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.

    Perhaps. But if you have flu like symptoms and have been not been abroad recently are you likely to get checked out?

    What about if you have flu like symptoms and have just got back from Italy?
    Well they are still conducting many many tests, so I think the checks are much wider than just those arriving from abroad.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    RobD said:

    Mysticrose said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    Yes I suggested 48 hours ago that I reckoned it was now spreading fast. Well, 'rampant' was the admittedly strong word. This all chimes with the Gov't's stated new tactic to try to divert the peak into the summer months.
    Delay is a new tactic? I thought they were using an existing strategy, not something new.
    No they have 3 phases. Contain, Delay, Mitigate. As of today we're now in Phase 2.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Mysticrose said:

    Benpointer said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    No one uses Dewey decimal?
    Could be the 5% 'Other'.

    I feel concerned for the 2% who don't know if they organise their books by any system or not.
    I deliberately don't order mine and take great delight in not doing so. I have novels by John le Carre scattered amongst tomes like Thatcher: The Downing Street Years and Harry Potter. Hemingway sits next to Churchill, A Guide to Vietnam alongside The Thorn Birds.

    It's deliciously subversive and, per contra, tends to draw fingers clutching for the spines.

    My old English teacher taught me that books are for reading, not to look pretty or impressive.
    Oh and such is the state of things that large dollops of books lie perched horizontally above the otherwise vertically arranged shelves. It's a jumble, or indeed a literary jungle, and I love it.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GideonWise said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.

    17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.

    ------

    So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.

    Perhaps. But if you have flu like symptoms and have been not been abroad recently are you likely to get checked out?

    What about if you have flu like symptoms and have just got back from Italy?
    Well they are still conducting many many tests, so I think the checks are much wider than just those arriving from abroad.
    I don't think we are doing community surveillance at scale to pick this up in the wild. So it's self selection at the moment based on the criteria being advised, ie recent returnees.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, about 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)

    Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    Time to seal it off? :p
    If you look back I did mention here that London's efficient public transport network was an almost perfect vector for infection spread.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,656
    Remember.

    The world is about to end.

    Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
    I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
    If you're going into quarantine to hide away from it that's the only thing to do. Needs to be months not days or weeks of isolation.

    Which is why it's stupid to go OTT now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    edited March 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
    I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
    I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
    If you're going into quarantine to hide away from it that's the only thing to do. Needs to be months not days or weeks of isolation.

    Which is why it's stupid to go OTT now.
    I made it clear to them it will be several months, but they literally tick all the boxes for all the extra pre-existing conditions that make you extremely high risk. They are lucky that they can leave the house without having to interact with people.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MattW said:

    Remember.

    The world is about to end.

    Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...

    MattW said:

    Remember.

    The world is about to end.

    Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...

    My god. That would nearly put us at a quarter of a percent of a bad flu season! Will the madness never end?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    MattW said:

    Remember.

    The world is about to end.

    Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...

    Did you see what the Chinese did to try and get those figures?

    Not such a clever point after all.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Philip_Thompson said:

    115 cases.

    More than double what it was on Tuesday.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,529
    Book ordering? Most expensive in the middle, cheaper as they fan out.

    People are always going to be drawn to your James Bond first editions.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    GideonWise said:

    MattW said:

    Remember.

    The world is about to end.

    Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...

    Did you see what the Chinese did to try and get those figures?

    Not such a clever point after all.
    No it's beyond stupid. I mean there's denial and then there's idiocy and that belonged to the latter.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    Time to seal it off? :p
    If you look back I did mention here that London's efficient public transport network was an almost perfect vector for infection spread.
    You did indeed
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Benpointer said:

    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.

    Well, it almost certainly wasn't, as a lot of cases will be going unrecorded due to people being too scared by bills to go to the doctor - a factor which will do little to help containment or tracking.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,470
    GideonWise said:

    MattW said:

    Remember.

    The world is about to end.

    Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...

    Did you see what the Chinese did to try and get those figures?

    Not such a clever point after all.
    Is this an example of this normalcy bias I keep hearing about? "it could never happen here"
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    I organise my political (and related) biographies by the subjects' date of birth.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    In today's coronavirus briefing, World Health Organization head Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that countries needed to take the outbreak seriously, adding: "This is not a drill. This is not the time to give up. This is not a time for excuses. This is the time for pulling out all the stops.

    "Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51747782

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.

    Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
    He's absolutely correct. With good medical care, the fatality rate is sub 1%.

    The problem is not the 1%, it's the 10% who need intensive care. How many of those recover if there is no decent medical care? Who will look after them when they're wheezing and struggling to breathe at home?

    And that is very much the risk.

    If 1% of people, and those mostly elderly, die of the Coronavirus, then it's not much fun. But the world continues pretty much as it was.

    If one in ten people requires intensive care over the course of just three or four months, then that will shake the world.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    An expert epidemiologist comments:

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1235604572850343937?s=21
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.

    Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
    He's absolutely correct. With good medical care, the fatality rate is sub 1%.

    The problem is not the 1%, it's the 10% who need intensive care. How many of those recover if there is no decent medical care? Who will look after them when they're wheezing and struggling to breathe at home?

    And that is very much the risk.

    If 1% of people, and those mostly elderly, die of the Coronavirus, then it's not much fun. But the world continues pretty much as it was.

    If one in ten people requires intensive care over the course of just three or four months, then that will shake the world.
    Robert, you posted something brilliant last night and I've now totally forgotten what it was!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.

    17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.

    ------

    So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.

    One thing that the UK media, with its usual slow capacity to notice new developments in an old story has failed to pick up, is the scale of the increase in cases across the rest of Europe. There have been over 250 cases in each of Germany, France and Spain yet barely any mention of them.

    It's only a few days since Italy only had 1500 cases (it's around double that now) but that's the total for the rest of the EU, with those three countries accounting for two-thirds of them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,661
    david_herdson said:

    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    I organise my political (and related) biographies by the subjects' date of birth.
    Organise ?
    What is this word ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    So Gabbard with her mighty 1 delegate is the last woman standing!

    I think she's doing rather better than that.

    According to the green papers the American Samoa vote was

    175 Bloomberg
    103 Gabbard
    37 Sanders
    31 Biden
    5 Warren.

    Makes the qualifying vote 278.

    62.9% Bloomberg
    37.1% Gabbard

    3.77 Bloomberg Delegates
    2.26 Gabbard

    Closest rounding is to 4 Bloomberg; 2 Gabbard.

    It's not a bad effort considering Bloomberg had 7 paid staffers working the vote for him there. Being a Democratic voter in American Samoa must have been amazing over the last month or so.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,012
    https://twitter.com/PrivateEyeNews/status/1235581683543482368
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    CarlottaVance said:

    An expert epidemiologist comments:

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1235604572850343937?s=21

    It's this kind of tweet that could undo Trump come November.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,190
    So Warren drops out and most of her support will go to Sanders, leaving a straight progressive v centrist fight with Biden (and Tulsi Gabbard, barely registering as an asterisk now but the only other candidate left in the Democratic nomination race)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    edited March 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    An expert political observer comments:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235598653114511360

    He's probably right. As was his COVID19 mortality rate tweet.
    Was he (re Warren)?

    The polling evidence is that Warren's support split almost equally between Sanders and Biden/Bloomberg/etc.

    If she had quit earlier, then Sanders would have gotten a boost, but so would Biden and Bloomberg.

    Sanders may have won more states in that scenario, but it's far from clear that the "left lane" of the Democratic race would end up with more delegates, as her departure would have put Bloomberg over the 15% mark in a bunch of places.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,163
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    Benpointer said:

    Trump dismisses the WHO suggestion of a 3.4% fatality rate:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number

    Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.

    Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
    He's absolutely correct. With good medical care, the fatality rate is sub 1%.

    The problem is not the 1%, it's the 10% who need intensive care. How many of those recover if there is no decent medical care? Who will look after them when they're wheezing and struggling to breathe at home?

    And that is very much the risk.

    If 1% of people, and those mostly elderly, die of the Coronavirus, then it's not much fun. But the world continues pretty much as it was.

    If one in ten people requires intensive care over the course of just three or four months, then that will shake the world.
    The Atlantic article I linked made this point in comparison to SARS. In addition to it being easier to tell who had it, if you got SARS those that died went pretty quickly and without wanting to sound heartless didn't clog up the system.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,091
    Mysticrose said:

    In today's coronavirus briefing, World Health Organization head Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that countries needed to take the outbreak seriously, adding: "This is not a drill. This is not the time to give up. This is not a time for excuses. This is the time for pulling out all the stops.

    "Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51747782

    WHO needs to send a team into Iran ASAP. They’ve not been planning for this, don’t know what to do and anyone with money is getting out and spreading the virus all around the region.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,656
    kamski said:

    GideonWise said:

    MattW said:

    Remember.

    The world is about to end.

    Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...

    Did you see what the Chinese did to try and get those figures?

    Not such a clever point after all.
    Is this an example of this normalcy bias I keep hearing about? "it could never happen here"
    The same number currently applies to Italy.

    It is an observation that there is a lot of hysteria out there, which is largely not warranted.

    Despite the yammerings from eg SeanT's padded cell, it still hasn't actually spread very far and we don't know the outcome.

    It really is "take sensible precautions, keep calm and carry on".
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Nigelb said:

    david_herdson said:

    kle4 said:

    Hmm, I knew I was weird, but turns out I am one of the 11% weird. Still organising books alphabetically by title would be truly insane.
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248

    I organise my political (and related) biographies by the subjects' date of birth.
    Organise ?
    What is this word ?
    Order, if you prefer.

    It's useful if you're looking into a particular event, as the accounts that deal with it will generally be in books that sit close together.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    Remember.

    The world is about to end.

    Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...

    That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    An expert political observer comments:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235598653114511360

    He's probably right. As was his COVID19 mortality rate tweet.
    Was he (re Warren)?

    The polling evidence is that Warren's support split almost equally between Sanders and Biden/Bloomberg/etc.

    If she had quit earlier, then Sanders would have gotten a boost, but so would Biden and Bloomberg.

    Sanders may have won more states in that scenario, but it's far from clear that the "left lane" of the Democratic race would end up with more delegates, as her departure would have put Bloomberg over the 15% mark in a bunch of places.
    Hmm true actually, she probably held Bloomberg sub 15% in TX and CA. Both good news for Sanders.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,190
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    25 of the 30 are in London.

    Nuke from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
    A bit extreme for something with a 3% death rate to cause a 100% death rate
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,661
    Mysticrose said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    An expert epidemiologist comments:

    https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1235604572850343937?s=21

    It's this kind of tweet that could undo Trump come November.

    Except that Trump squirts our tweets like a squid squirts ink.

    There will always be a new distraction.

    If people die in large numbers he will get some of the blame whatever he tweets.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,072
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    An expert political observer comments:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235598653114511360

    He's probably right. As was his COVID19 mortality rate tweet.
    Was he (re Warren)?

    The polling evidence is that Warren's support split almost equally between Sanders and Biden/Bloomberg/etc.

    If she had quit earlier, then Sanders would have gotten a boost, but so would Biden and Bloomberg.

    Sanders may have won more states in that scenario, but it's far from clear that the "left lane" of the Democratic race would end up with more delegates, as her departure would have put Bloomberg over the 15% mark in a bunch of places.
    Going forward does this help Sanders?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,190
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    An expert political observer comments:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235598653114511360

    Not really true as Warren and Sanders had more delegates combined than Biden in both Massachusetts and Maine
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    edited March 2020
    Trump logic
    No testing = no corona virus :D
This discussion has been closed.

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