Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, about 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)
Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
My views of a few days back remains unchanged:
1) Those with pre-existing pulmonary and respiratory conditions have every right to be concerned and those caring for them and close to them will also be concerned. Trying to mitigate the risk of infection for those people (even if that means self-isolation) has to be a priority.
2) The impact of large scale infection is going to be varied - transport services will suffer if a significant number of drivers are off sick. That in turn will disrupt travel for many others as services are involuntarily reduced,
3) I'm worried there are those who will try to continue even if they are sick because they literally cannot afford to be sick or miss a day's pay. That's how this will spread - from those who can't afford to self-isolate.
4) The economic shock of all this is going to be interesting - bothering about 1000 point variations in the DJIA is one thing but is there going to be a significant effect especially in Q1 of 20/21. Straws in the wind suggest there will be a hit to be taken and of course if the virus becomes significant at home the weakened retail estate may suffer worst.
There was a Twitter thread from Singapore yesterday; basically everyone indoors, working from home as best they can, answering the door only to masked delivery drivers who are leaving boxes of food outside and running off before the door is answered.
Talking to PHE there is little evidence that seasonal factors make very much difference to the virus.
0.5% of cases are in the southern hemisphere. I don't think those numbers are wrong but I haven't spent ages on them. Of the 99.5% cases which are in the Northern Hemisphere, the large majority seem to be in colder areas.
There must be a prospect of a weakening of the outbreak as temperatures warm up. Here in southern Spain we're consistently above 23 degrees now and have far fewer cases than in the centre and north where it's still quite chilly and rainy. Also to be honest I think the UK figures are quite a bit less than I expected by now. For me the jury is still out on how bad it's gonna get.
I thought most of Iran had been in the mid-20s for a while, and it doesn't seem to have helped.
The weather difference is likely to be most pronounced in developed countries, where spring and summer will reduce the cases. Hence also warmer, sunnier southern Spain and southern Italy less affected than the cooler northern Spain and northern Italy at the moment. Hence too most of Australia's cases have come from abroad as it is summer there.
Countries with poor sanitation and health care like Iran will not find higher temperatures make as big of a difference.
As I talked to my contacts—many of them scientists, startup founders, and investors who closely track technology trends—I heard stories of people renting remote cabins and others who’d liquidated their entire stock portfolios.
Dr Foxy serious question...my parents are elderly and tick all the boxes for the high risk factors.
As I said down thread, I have kinda of gone and locked them away, and they have emergency supply of provisions. However, I am also going to order home delivery from supermarkets.
What precautions should they be taking with the food that arrives? Should they avoid fresh foods?
Any suggestions much appreciated.
The virus expires quickly on fomites (contaminated objects) 48 hours max, but usually shorter than that.
Fruit and veg untouched for that period should be safe. You may wish to go less green and buy only stuff that is packed wrapped, and to wash the packing in soapy water before delivering it to them
Dr Foxy serious question...my parents are elderly and tick all the boxes for the high risk factors.
As I said down thread, I have kinda of gone and locked them away, and they have emergency supply of provisions. However, I am also going to order home delivery from supermarkets.
What precautions should they be taking with the food that arrives? Should they avoid fresh foods?
Any suggestions much appreciated.
The virus expires quickly on fomites (contaminated objects) 48 hours max, but usually shorter than that.
Fruit and veg untouched for that period should be safe. You may wish to go less green and buy only stuff that is packed wrapped, and to wash the packing in soapy water before delivering it to them
Those broad regions are almost useless. Apart from anything else the population in London is a lot higher than the South West, but it would take a bit of work to confirm the boundaries and the per capita infection rate in each one.
A breakdown by something like Parliamentary constituency, or postcode area, would be much better.
Sainsbury's yesterday seemed very short of Coke, of all things.
Well, if they've run out of disinfectant washes, it's the next best thing.
That was probably me - I drink 2 cans a day (have done most days all my adult life) and periodically stock up! For some reason people find this odd
I did notice that things like cheap pasta and long-life milk had disappeared off the shelves - suspect there's some discreet stockpiling going on. I'll confess to buying some cans and some frozen food - I think there's a distinction between massive hoarding (silly and anti-social) and having enough tinned stuff to keep you going for a couple of weeks (sensible).
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
There must be a prospect of a weakening of the outbreak as temperatures warm up. Here in southern Spain we're consistently above 23 degrees now and have far fewer cases than in the centre and north where it's still quite chilly and rainy. Also to be honest I think the UK figures are quite a bit less than I expected by now. For me the jury is still out on how bad it's gonna get.
I thought most of Iran had been in the mid-20s for a while, and it doesn't seem to have helped.
High 20s in Dubai today. There’s mountainous areas in Iran where it will be colder, but generally the Middle East ‘winter’ has finished and it’s starting to get hot again. 17-18 overnight lows.
Sainsbury's yesterday seemed very short of Coke, of all things.
Well, if they've run out of disinfectant washes, it's the next best thing.
That was probably me - I drink 2 cans a day (have done most days all my adult life) and periodically stock up! For some reason people find this odd
I did notice that things like cheap pasta and long-life milk had disappeared off the shelves - suspect there's some discreet stockpiling going on. I'll confess to buying some cans and some frozen food - I think there's a distinction between massive hoarding (silly and anti-social) and having enough tinned stuff to keep you going for a couple of weeks (sensible).
You drink two cans of disinfectant washes a day? I'd say that's odd!
Public Health England said in a briefing on Thursday evening that they’re now treating confirmed cases with mild symptoms at home and not in hospitals. 45 cases are now being treated at home.
It was also confirmed that travellers returning from all of Italy, not just north, were now being advised to self isolate if they have symptoms. The tightening of the advice is understood to have been prompted by the recent surge in UK cases of people who recently come back from Italy, where the outbreak has escalated across the country in recent days - Guardian.
Those broad regions are almost useless. Apart from anything else the population in London is a lot higher than the South West, but it would take a bit of work to confirm the boundaries and the per capita infection rate in each one.
A breakdown by something like Parliamentary constituency, or postcode area, would be much better.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
would the irony be that the infection gets 100% coverage everywhere except those stuck on cruise ships in the atlantic?
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
As I talked to my contacts—many of them scientists, startup founders, and investors who closely track technology trends—I heard stories of people renting remote cabins and others who’d liquidated their entire stock portfolios.
Hi rottenborough before i pester my local directer of PH (he returns my emails due to a past life), what does this mean about the peak period been three weeks , and where did you see it?
Sainsbury's yesterday seemed very short of Coke, of all things.
Well, if they've run out of disinfectant washes, it's the next best thing.
That was probably me - I drink 2 cans a day (have done most days all my adult life) and periodically stock up! For some reason people find this odd
I did notice that things like cheap pasta and long-life milk had disappeared off the shelves - suspect there's some discreet stockpiling going on. I'll confess to buying some cans and some frozen food - I think there's a distinction between massive hoarding (silly and anti-social) and having enough tinned stuff to keep you going for a couple of weeks (sensible).
Yeah, I've noticed a lot of similar stuff today. Loads of people with one pack of toilet paper, a couple bags of pasta, maybe a kg of sugar and flour. Definitely no/very few 'big' trolley shoppers.
Talking to PHE there is little evidence that seasonal factors make very much difference to the virus.
0.5% of cases are in the southern hemisphere. I don't think those numbers are wrong but I haven't spent ages on them. Of the 99.5% cases which are in the Northern Hemisphere, the large majority seem to be in colder areas.
That's a correlation and a huge guess, not a causation.
For one it started in the Nothern Hemisphere, and 3 months later 90% of deaths have been in the Chinese province where it started. If the Chinese are hiding deaths then that 90% is even higher.
Then there is that 90% of the population live in the Northern hemisphere, so an even per pop distribution would still put 900% of cases there.
Then there is that much of the Southern hemisphere in Asia where it started is islands, which would have an impact.
And so on...
Anyhoo, I'm just quoting from a Data Manager at PHE.
Waitrose much busier than usual today but not much evidence of real panic buying - I suspect most who can afford to are just making sure they have a few weeks supplies in the house.
Interesting. But I'm certainly not speculating that coronavirus CAN'T survive hotter conditions. Only that it appears to be spreading MUCH less prolifically where it's warm. I think the distribution in Iran - as far as i can find info about it - may also support that with a majority of cases in Tehran and Qom.
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
A complex question, but the short version is to either copy ROK or copy Iran. I reckon ROK.
I am not suggesting a generalised lockdown just yet, though increased social distancing is sensible, but if there are foci of infections then localised lockdowns are very likely to be needed.
As I talked to my contacts—many of them scientists, startup founders, and investors who closely track technology trends—I heard stories of people renting remote cabins and others who’d liquidated their entire stock portfolios.
I see that guy was getting in the essentials...6 mega sized bottles of Grey goose.
If I'm getting quarantined I'm at least going to be able to get drunk through most of it. My first preference for bailing out is a friend's place that got a wine cellar installed the other year.
Those broad regions are almost useless. Apart from anything else the population in London is a lot higher than the South West, but it would take a bit of work to confirm the boundaries and the per capita infection rate in each one.
A breakdown by something like Parliamentary constituency, or postcode area, would be much better.
I don't think a bar chart based on postcodes would be that attractive at the moment. There would be a lot of white space!
As we get more cases we can definitely go to a lower geographic area though.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
There is nothing certain in all of this Ben
Quarantine on a cruise ship is something to avoid but I would expect transatantic crossing may be safer. No doubt cruise ships will test everyone prior to boarding
I learnt today that if we cancel before going our insurer refunds the whole premium less £10 admin fee, so we would receive £660 refund by not going
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
Some form of cost benefit analysis using the QALY, most likely.
Talking to PHE there is little evidence that seasonal factors make very much difference to the virus.
0.5% of cases are in the southern hemisphere. I don't think those numbers are wrong but I haven't spent ages on them. Of the 99.5% cases which are in the Northern Hemisphere, the large majority seem to be in colder areas.
That's a correlation and a huge guess, not a causation.
For one it started in the Nothern Hemisphere, and 3 months later 90% of deaths have been in the Chinese province where it started. If the Chinese are hiding deaths then that 90% is even higher.
Then there is that 90% of the population live in the Northern hemisphere, so an even per pop distribution would still put 900% of cases there.
Then there is that much of the Southern hemisphere in Asia where it started is islands, which would have an impact.
And so on...
Anyhoo, I'm just quoting from a Data Manager at PHE.
Though there is a much higher percentage between the tropics of cancer and Capricorn.
... Anyhoo, I'm just quoting from a Data Manager at PHE.
All good points which weaken the basis for my speculation that this coronavirus may behave similarly to other coronaviruses. Nonetheless, I think the fact that we've only got 2 cases of community transmission in the whole southern hemisphere (I repeat my caveats) is interesting and encouraging.
That quote from the Data Manager... I can't see where you've linked it. I looked at the report you linked but that was about seasonal flu.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
There is nothing certain in all of this Ben
Quarantine on a cruise ship is something to avoid but I would expect transatantic crossing may be safer. No doubt cruise ships will test everyone prior to boarding
I learnt today that if we cancel before going our insurer refunds the whole premium less £10 admin fee, so we would receive £660 refund by not going
I haven't checked but I am pretty sure we'd only get a refund if Cunard cancel or the FO advise against travel to the US.
Time will tell - we're not stressing about it. (Except my Carnival shares are sinking faster than the Titanic lol!)
Very amusing but did we not know from the start of the process when it was scheduled to end? It's like Hodges complaining we won't know the next American president until November.
'Coming under pressure'. Journalists love this phrase. What it usually means is that someone with an agenda has issued a press release or written a letter.
Interesting. But I'm certainly not speculating that coronavirus CAN'T survive hotter conditions. Only that it appears to be spreading MUCH less prolifically where it's warm. I think the distribution in Iran - as far as i can find info about it - may also support that with a majority of cases in Tehran and Qom.
The problem with Iran is a pretty much total societal breakdown. Anyone with money has left by whatever means they could, and they’ve all turned up infected in the Gulf states.
As a result, the UAE have closed all schools for a month and the Bahrain Grand Prix is in doubt. In the wider region there’s many places where the virus would spread like wild fire if it got hold.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
There is nothing certain in all of this Ben
Quarantine on a cruise ship is something to avoid but I would expect transatantic crossing may be safer. No doubt cruise ships will test everyone prior to boarding
I learnt today that if we cancel before going our insurer refunds the whole premium less £10 admin fee, so we would receive £660 refund by not going
I haven't checked but I am pretty sure we'd only get a refund if Cunard cancel or the FO advise against travel to the US.
Time will tell - we're not stressing about it. (Except my Carnival shares are sinking faster than the Titanic lol!)
Apparently if we cancel the policy prior to the risk day we receive the refund
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
Some form of cost benefit analysis using the QALY, most likely.
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
I agree with the Doc on that one. A straw in the wind is the different infection / mortality rates between eg London and Manchester in the Spanish Flu, where the authorities in London gave up and Manchester tried to put in place Public HEalth measures - of the sort that will be everywhere now; BBC4 did a programme about it in 2009.
The advice I am getting from specialists in this area, as a member of a vulnerable group (Type I Diabetic with Anaemia) is:
1 - Avoid hospitals and GP surgeries. 2 - Make sure you have decent supplies of any meds, and methods in place to get them without visiting the surgery (ie online and delivered). 3 - Avoid enclosed gatherings of large numbers of people, especially public transport. 4 - Otherwise keep calm and carry on.
Personally I am also making sure that I am in a position to self-isolate for a couple of months, and will not be visiting or taking visitors with flu-like symptoms.
Were I commuting into London or a large city, I would be switching to motorbike or pushbike (or car plus pushbike were the distance great) for isolation reasons.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
By May you’ll probably have more problems trying to return anywhere from the US.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
There is nothing certain in all of this Ben
Quarantine on a cruise ship is something to avoid but I would expect transatantic crossing may be safer. No doubt cruise ships will test everyone prior to boarding
I learnt today that if we cancel before going our insurer refunds the whole premium less £10 admin fee, so we would receive £660 refund by not going
I haven't checked but I am pretty sure we'd only get a refund if Cunard cancel or the FO advise against travel to the US.
Time will tell - we're not stressing about it. (Except my Carnival shares are sinking faster than the Titanic lol!)
Apparently if we cancel the policy prior to the risk day we receive the refund
Ah sorry, you mean a refund on the insurance policy?
Our policy for the America trip only cost £200 but I am not cancelling that as it could end up having to cover the holiday cancellation costs!
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
A complex question, but the short version is to either copy ROK or copy Iran. I reckon ROK.
I am not suggesting a generalised lockdown just yet, though increased social distancing is sensible, but if there are foci of infections then localised lockdowns are very likely to be needed.
Totally agree. But does the British public have the correct mentality for a self enforced lock down? It needs to be bottom up. The Koreans are ready for this and understand the need.
By contrast the majority of the British public are unconcerned by Corona and haven't changed behaviour at all. Unsettling.
Far too much ignorance combined with I'm alright Jack, I fear.
Ignorance and selfishness could well be our downfall.
Those broad regions are almost useless. Apart from anything else the population in London is a lot higher than the South West, but it would take a bit of work to confirm the boundaries and the per capita infection rate in each one.
A breakdown by something like Parliamentary constituency, or postcode area, would be much better.
Those broad regions are almost useless. Apart from anything else the population in London is a lot higher than the South West, but it would take a bit of work to confirm the boundaries and the per capita infection rate in each one.
A breakdown by something like Parliamentary constituency, or postcode area, would be much better.
I don't think a bar chart based on postcodes would be that attractive at the moment. There would be a lot of white space!
As we get more cases we can definitely go to a lower geographic area though.
Tomorrow we get the full locations by county iirc.
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
Some form of cost benefit analysis using the QALY, most likely.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
There is nothing certain in all of this Ben
Quarantine on a cruise ship is something to avoid but I would expect transatantic crossing may be safer. No doubt cruise ships will test everyone prior to boarding
I learnt today that if we cancel before going our insurer refunds the whole premium less £10 admin fee, so we would receive £660 refund by not going
I haven't checked but I am pretty sure we'd only get a refund if Cunard cancel or the FO advise against travel to the US.
Time will tell - we're not stressing about it. (Except my Carnival shares are sinking faster than the Titanic lol!)
Apparently if we cancel the policy prior to the risk day we receive the refund
Ah sorry, you mean a refund on the insurance policy?
Our policy for the America trip only cost £200 but I am not cancelling that as it could end up having to cover the holiday cancellation costs!
Yes. But I would only cancel the insurance if we decide not to go and we will make that decision by the end of April. We are only liable for the £2,000 air fare, the hotel, and other miscel issues are free to cancel at anytime
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
By May you’ll probably have more problems trying to return anywhere from the US.
Lol!
I am thinking a happy outcome for us might be 7 nights of full board luxury across the Atlantic, a couple of days of being refused entry to the US en mass, then 7 days luxury cruising back to Southampton followed by a full refund from Cunard.
Somehow I don't think it's going to work out that way though.
'Coming under pressure'. Journalists love this phrase. What it usually means is that someone with an agenda has issued a press release or written a letter.
I take it that means a couple of chaps at the Guardian and the BBC are talking about it.
Has there been one of these dossiers which has yet been shown to be substantially serious matters and more than half-true, yet?
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
There is nothing certain in all of this Ben
Quarantine on a cruise ship is something to avoid but I would expect transatantic crossing may be safer. No doubt cruise ships will test everyone prior to boarding
I learnt today that if we cancel before going our insurer refunds the whole premium less £10 admin fee, so we would receive £660 refund by not going
I haven't checked but I am pretty sure we'd only get a refund if Cunard cancel or the FO advise against travel to the US.
Time will tell - we're not stressing about it. (Except my Carnival shares are sinking faster than the Titanic lol!)
Apparently if we cancel the policy prior to the risk day we receive the refund
Ah sorry, you mean a refund on the insurance policy?
Our policy for the America trip only cost £200 but I am not cancelling that as it could end up having to cover the holiday cancellation costs!
Yes. But I would only cancel the insurance if we decide not to go and we will make that decision by the end of April. We are only liable for the £2,000 air fare, the hotel, and other miscel issues are free to cancel at anytime
If the FO advise against travelling you should get the £2,000 air fare back from your insurers though.
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
I agree with the Doc on that one. A straw in the wind is the different infection / mortality rates between eg London and Manchester in the Spanish Flu, where the authorities in London gave up and Manchester tried to put in place Public HEalth measures - of the sort that will be everywhere now; BBC4 did a programme about it in 2009.
The advice I am getting from specialists in this area, as a member of a vulnerable group (Type I Diabetic with Anaemia) is:
1 - Avoid hospitals and GP surgeries. 2 - Make sure you have decent supplies of any meds, and methods in place to get them without visiting the surgery (ie online and delivered). 3 - Avoid enclosed gatherings of large numbers of people, especially public transport. 4 - Otherwise keep calm and carry on.
Personally I am also making sure that I am in a position to self-isolate for a couple of months, and will not be visiting or taking visitors with flu-like symptoms.
Were I commuting into London or a large city, I would be switching to motorbike or pushbike (or car plus pushbike were the distance great) for isolation reasons.
That sounds a reasonable plan, and I will be doing much the same, except of course I have a professional exposure risk.
'Coming under pressure'. Journalists love this phrase. What it usually means is that someone with an agenda has issued a press release or written a letter.
I take it that means a couple of chaps at the Guardian and the BBC are talking about it.
Has there been one of these dossiers which has yet been shown to be substantially serious matters and more than half-true, yet?
Well the Sunday Times/Hope Not Hate one last weekend say the Tory party suspend 20 members for Islamophobia.
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
There is nothing certain in all of this Ben
Quarantine on a cruise ship is something to avoid but I would expect transatantic crossing may be safer. No doubt cruise ships will test everyone prior to boarding
I learnt today that if we cancel before going our insurer refunds the whole premium less £10 admin fee, so we would receive £660 refund by not going
I haven't checked but I am pretty sure we'd only get a refund if Cunard cancel or the FO advise against travel to the US.
Time will tell - we're not stressing about it. (Except my Carnival shares are sinking faster than the Titanic lol!)
Apparently if we cancel the policy prior to the risk day we receive the refund
Ah sorry, you mean a refund on the insurance policy?
Our policy for the America trip only cost £200 but I am not cancelling that as it could end up having to cover the holiday cancellation costs!
Yes. But I would only cancel the insurance if we decide not to go and we will make that decision by the end of April. We are only liable for the £2,000 air fare, the hotel, and other miscel issues are free to cancel at anytime
If the FO advise against travelling you should get the £2,000 air fare back from your insurers though.
Yes but of course that would be huge because I doubt it would only be Canada without the US as well
Can we even imagine the economic crisis if that happened
We can cheer ourselves up tonight by watching BBC1's new blockbuster drama about an apartheid Britain in which black people rule the roost over the white peasants.
Very amusing but did we not know from the start of the process when it was scheduled to end? It's like Hodges complaining we won't know the next American president until November.
Its like a ten part one hour episodes netflix series stretching out 40 minutes of audio recordings with a serial killer and lots of stock footage and new footage made to look like footage of the actions described.
We can cheer ourselves up tonight by watching BBC1's new blockbuster drama about an apartheid Britain in which black people rule the roost over the white peasants.
'Coming under pressure'. Journalists love this phrase. What it usually means is that someone with an agenda has issued a press release or written a letter.
Most likely the same group that “handed” the “dossier” to the EHRC in the first place.
There was a nominally Muslim man sitting in No.11 only a few weeks ago.
'Coming under pressure'. Journalists love this phrase. What it usually means is that someone with an agenda has issued a press release or written a letter.
I take it that means a couple of chaps at the Guardian and the BBC are talking about it.
Has there been one of these dossiers which has yet been shown to be substantially serious matters and more than half-true, yet?
Well the Sunday Times/Hope Not Hate one last weekend say the Tory party suspend 20 members for Islamophobia.
Yes - I went looking for that but the evidence was not published at the same time as then newspaper articles. It has been now, and it is a bit of a stretch in some ways.
The MCB made a formal complaint to the EHRC back in May 2019 with a dossier against approx. 150 people. AFAIK nothing has happened - though I would be interested to hear if it has.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
I agree with the Doc on that one. A straw in the wind is the different infection / mortality rates between eg London and Manchester in the Spanish Flu, where the authorities in London gave up and Manchester tried to put in place Public HEalth measures - of the sort that will be everywhere now; BBC4 did a programme about it in 2009.
The advice I am getting from specialists in this area, as a member of a vulnerable group (Type I Diabetic with Anaemia) is:
1 - Avoid hospitals and GP surgeries. 2 - Make sure you have decent supplies of any meds, and methods in place to get them without visiting the surgery (ie online and delivered). 3 - Avoid enclosed gatherings of large numbers of people, especially public transport. 4 - Otherwise keep calm and carry on.
Personally I am also making sure that I am in a position to self-isolate for a couple of months, and will not be visiting or taking visitors with flu-like symptoms.
Were I commuting into London or a large city, I would be switching to motorbike or pushbike (or car plus pushbike were the distance great) for isolation reasons.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
If I’m fit enough to go skiing it’s not going to kill me so I’m going to go skiing, bugger every one else
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
By May you’ll probably have more problems trying to return anywhere from the US.
Lol!
I am thinking a happy outcome for us might be 7 nights of full board luxury across the Atlantic, a couple of days of being refused entry to the US en mass, then 7 days luxury cruising back to Southampton followed by a full refund from Cunard.
Somehow I don't think it's going to work out that way though.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
If I’m fit enough to go skiing it’s not going to kill me so I’m going to go skiing, bugger every one else
Not sure if this is a parody. But if not, see my other post: 'I'm alright Jack'.
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
That is already the most embarrassing post in the history of this site, and that's before it starts aging.
Not embarrassed at all. Just pointing out a panic bubble.
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
I think that it is very possible for us to control this with an order of magnitude or two fewer fatalities than the worst case scenario, but that requires strict and firm isolation. Taking action to prevent such an event is drastic, but the downside risk of not doing it is far worse.
How do you weigh up the economic and social cost of a strict containment against the increased mortaility of a looser regime?
I agree with the Doc on that one. A straw in the wind is the different infection / mortality rates between eg London and Manchester in the Spanish Flu, where the authorities in London gave up and Manchester tried to put in place Public HEalth measures - of the sort that will be everywhere now; BBC4 did a programme about it in 2009.
The advice I am getting from specialists in this area, as a member of a vulnerable group (Type I Diabetic with Anaemia) is:
1 - Avoid hospitals and GP surgeries. 2 - Make sure you have decent supplies of any meds, and methods in place to get them without visiting the surgery (ie online and delivered). 3 - Avoid enclosed gatherings of large numbers of people, especially public transport. 4 - Otherwise keep calm and carry on.
Personally I am also making sure that I am in a position to self-isolate for a couple of months, and will not be visiting or taking visitors with flu-like symptoms.
Were I commuting into London or a large city, I would be switching to motorbike or pushbike (or car plus pushbike were the distance great) for isolation reasons.
That sounds a reasonable plan, and I will be doing much the same, except of course I have a professional exposure risk.
I fortunately had one Annual Checkup today, and the big Diabetes one is in the hospital clinic on Monday - just in time.
But I am in the Blood Dr's bad books for avoiding a bone marrow biopsy * whilst off for a month with a horrible winter lurgy that lost me 10kg. For some weird reason my HBA1c has gone from moderate to excellent whilst I have been ill. Strange times.
(*) For anyone not familiar, they stick you with something like a hollow traditional hat pin (the ones that suffragettes used to defend themselves) into a bone, and suck out some marrow which has the consistency of tapioca roughly - I am told. Not something to do whilst weak.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
There is no point expecting travel journalists, or anyone in the public, to second guess or contradict govt advice in as complicated a situation as this. We dont have the data, we dont have the skills and knowledge, whatever logic we think we are applying may not fit with the governments overall objectives at a given point in time.
If we shouldnt go to Italy, it is up to the govt to tell us through Foreign Office official advice.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
There is no point expecting travel journalists, or anyone in the public, to second guess or contradict govt advice in as complicated a situation as this. We dont have the data, we dont have the skills and knowledge, whatever logic we think we are applying may not fit with the governments overall objectives at a given point in time.
If we shouldnt go to Italy, it is up to the govt to tell us through Foreign Office official advice.
Travel journalists should stick to what they know. Policy on cancellations.
Not comment on the risks of travelling or the epidemiology of a new pandemic.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
If I’m fit enough to go skiing it’s not going to kill me so I’m going to go skiing, bugger every one else
Not sure if this is a parody. But if not, see my other post: 'I'm alright Jack'.
It's called public health for a reason.
You probably are not aware of @nichomar's back-story; if you were, you'd think differently
As someone who voted remain but now supports leave, and am in the highest risk group, I believe coronavirus is serious but people need to take sensible precautions and follow advice.
In my case my wife and I may defer our Canada trip from May to September but we are leaving that decision to the last minute
That's going to be a tough call Big_G.
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
By May you’ll probably have more problems trying to return anywhere from the US.
Lol!
I am thinking a happy outcome for us might be 7 nights of full board luxury across the Atlantic, a couple of days of being refused entry to the US en mass, then 7 days luxury cruising back to Southampton followed by a full refund from Cunard.
Somehow I don't think it's going to work out that way though.
Cunard are already being very careful, cancelling stops on their cruises and screening everyone before boarding. At the least you can expect things to take longer than usual.
I wish you a pleasant crossing. Don’t miss the planetarium, the library, and the commodore club. If you end up in the lower dining room give my regards to Frederic.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
If I’m fit enough to go skiing it’s not going to kill me so I’m going to go skiing, bugger every one else
Not sure if this is a parody. But if not, see my other post: 'I'm alright Jack'.
It's called public health for a reason.
Bad attempt at sarcasm, it’s up to individuals what they do you have to assess the risks both to yourself and to others on your return. We can’t rely on governments or travel journalists to give the ‘correct’ advice because they come from different perspectives. My only advice is don’t put yourself or others at risk after you have done taken everything else into account. I have kept saying the bug itself will not be the real problem it will be the knock on impact on so much else.
During this intense period of public health scrutiny, washing our hands every four minutes, there's probably going to be some really exotic bugs that suffer terribly. Maybe even become extinct.
During this intense period of public health scrutiny, washing our hands every four minutes, there's probably going to be some really exotic bugs that suffer terribly. Maybe even become extinct.
During this intense period of public health scrutiny, washing our hands every four minutes, there's probably going to be some really exotic bugs that suffer terribly. Maybe even become extinct.
The whole coronavirus episode is naturally worrisome for all those of us who are either in vulnerable groups or have friends and family who are part of them. However, I do find the suggestion that there's ultimately nothing that can be done to stop most of us getting it - and it's merely a matter of hoping that the peak doesn't come until this seemingly endless Winter finally eases off - to be convincing.
In any event, the idea that we're going to lower the infection rate and stem the transmission of this illness through mass self-isolation is for the birds. It will be entirely undone by the attitudes of peoples' employers, which will provoke mass presenteeism amongst the unwell. Consider:
1. Most employers are unsympathetic to sickness absence, and regard those without cast-iron excuses as likely guilty of swinging the lead. In my place you go straight onto the automatic treadmill of capability reviews with HR if you're off more than once in a six-month period, or only once but for more than five days. You can't self-certify for more than five days' absence, and the NHS is going to have more important things to worry about than writing out millions and millions of sick notes for people if and when this thing really takes off. So, an awful lot of workers with mild or moderate symptoms are going to drag themselves in because they're terrified of disciplinary sanctions or getting the sack.
2. The more employees who are literally bedridden or forced to stay home to look after children, the greater the pressure on those who aren't to keep turning up to work. Especially due to point one above, attempts to protest that one is perfectly well but self-isolating for two weeks for the good of the community are apt to be received with less than complete equanimity.
3. Those who don't receive time off ill on full-pay, and are therefore faced, variously, with coping on statutory sick pay, draining their savings, or having to wait until the heat death of the universe for emergency benefit payments, will also find themselves under enormous financial pressure to haul arse back into work as soon as possible. Mortgage lenders and landlords alike are not renowned for their sympathetic attitudes towards people who can't cough up the required cash, for reason of illness or anything else.
It will take draconian measures from the Government to even begin to address all these problems, and it has little incentive to act. It wants as many people to stay at work as possible, after all. The worse the slowdown in economic activity, the lower the tax take and the higher the demand for social security payments.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
If I’m fit enough to go skiing it’s not going to kill me so I’m going to go skiing, bugger every one else
Not sure if this is a parody. But if not, see my other post: 'I'm alright Jack'.
It's called public health for a reason.
Bad attempt at sarcasm, it’s up to individuals what they do you have to assess the risks both to yourself and to others on your return. We can’t rely on governments or travel journalists to give the ‘correct’ advice because they come from different perspectives. My only advice is don’t put yourself or others at risk after you have done taken everything else into account. I have kept saying the bug itself will not be the real problem it will be the knock on impact on so much else.
That is far superior and nuanced versus what Simon Calder was giving out. For context, this was one of 5Live's ask the experts segments last Monday. He then went on to do the media rounds giving his wisdom everywhere. He's still doing it now, as far as I can tell.
Needless to say his advice on the risks is going to prove to be very poor indeed.
Updated guidance now. Anyone returning from anywhere in Italy showing any symptoms should self isolate.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
If I’m fit enough to go skiing it’s not going to kill me so I’m going to go skiing, bugger every one else
Not sure if this is a parody. But if not, see my other post: 'I'm alright Jack'.
It's called public health for a reason.
Bad attempt at sarcasm, it’s up to individuals what they do you have to assess the risks both to yourself and to others on your return. We can’t rely on governments or travel journalists to give the ‘correct’ advice because they come from different perspectives. My only advice is don’t put yourself or others at risk after you have done taken everything else into account. I have kept saying the bug itself will not be the real problem it will be the knock on impact on so much else.
That is far superior and nuanced versus what Simon Calder was giving out. For context, this was one of 5Live's ask the experts segments last Monday. He then went on to do the media rounds giving his wisdom everywhere. He's still doing it now, as far as I can tell.
Needless to say his advice on the risks is going to prove to be very poor indeed.
As much as certain people have a tendency to panic and become hysterical in these situations, there are others who see it as a sort of bravado to show that they aren't "scared" like all the other sheeple.
Comments
I expect it will put on 5% tomorrow(*) Strange times.
(*DYOR)
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/iran/tehran/historic
Countries with poor sanitation and health care like Iran will not find higher temperatures make as big of a difference.
Fruit and veg untouched for that period should be safe. You may wish to go less green and buy only stuff that is packed wrapped, and to wash the packing in soapy water before delivering it to them
25 - not a typo.
A breakdown by something like Parliamentary constituency, or postcode area, would be much better.
I did notice that things like cheap pasta and long-life milk had disappeared off the shelves - suspect there's some discreet stockpiling going on. I'll confess to buying some cans and some frozen food - I think there's a distinction between massive hoarding (silly and anti-social) and having enough tinned stuff to keep you going for a couple of weeks (sensible).
We have a trip to NY on QM2 booked for early May. We definitely plan to go unless Cunard cancel or the FO advise against but I am slightly worried we may end up with a 7 day crossing followed by two weeks in quarantine in NY harbour.
Edit: Cunard have written to us and told us to take two weeks spare meds just in case lol!
We have sensible ranges of probabilities being published and the tabloid media, including the broadcast tabloid media and the formerly broadsheet tabloid media, selecting the upper bound and ignoring the more likely scenarios.
It was also confirmed that travellers returning from all of Italy, not just north, were now being advised to self isolate if they have symptoms. The tightening of the advice is understood to have been prompted by the recent surge in UK cases of people who recently come back from Italy, where the outbreak has escalated across the country in recent days - Guardian.
Not actually that much variation in the regions they have grouped.
For one it started in the Nothern Hemisphere, and 3 months later 90% of deaths have been in the Chinese province where it started. If the Chinese are hiding deaths then that 90% is even higher.
Then there is that 90% of the population live in the Northern hemisphere, so an even per pop distribution would still put 900% of cases there.
Then there is that much of the Southern hemisphere in Asia where it started is islands, which would have an impact.
And so on...
Anyhoo, I'm just quoting from a Data Manager at PHE.
I am not suggesting a generalised lockdown just yet, though increased social distancing is sensible, but if there are foci of infections then localised lockdowns are very likely to be needed.
As we get more cases we can definitely go to a lower geographic area though.
Quarantine on a cruise ship is something to avoid but I would expect transatantic crossing may be safer. No doubt cruise ships will test everyone prior to boarding
I learnt today that if we cancel before going our insurer refunds the whole premium less £10 admin fee, so we would receive £660 refund by not going
That quote from the Data Manager... I can't see where you've linked it. I looked at the report you linked but that was about seasonal flu.
Time will tell - we're not stressing about it. (Except my Carnival shares are sinking faster than the Titanic lol!)
As a result, the UAE have closed all schools for a month and the Bahrain Grand Prix is in doubt. In the wider region there’s many places where the virus would spread like wild fire if it got hold.
Of course we would lose BA flight charges
There's a lot of heavy lifting going on there with the word 'or'.
The advice I am getting from specialists in this area, as a member of a vulnerable group (Type I Diabetic with Anaemia) is:
1 - Avoid hospitals and GP surgeries.
2 - Make sure you have decent supplies of any meds, and methods in place to get them without visiting the surgery (ie online and delivered).
3 - Avoid enclosed gatherings of large numbers of people, especially public transport.
4 - Otherwise keep calm and carry on.
Personally I am also making sure that I am in a position to self-isolate for a couple of months, and will not be visiting or taking visitors with flu-like symptoms.
Were I commuting into London or a large city, I would be switching to motorbike or pushbike (or car plus pushbike were the distance great) for isolation reasons.
Our policy for the America trip only cost £200 but I am not cancelling that as it could end up having to cover the holiday cancellation costs!
By contrast the majority of the British public are unconcerned by Corona and haven't changed behaviour at all. Unsettling.
Far too much ignorance combined with I'm alright Jack, I fear.
Ignorance and selfishness could well be our downfall.
I am thinking a happy outcome for us might be 7 nights of full board luxury across the Atlantic, a couple of days of being refused entry to the US en mass, then 7 days luxury cruising back to Southampton followed by a full refund from Cunard.
Somehow I don't think it's going to work out that way though.
Has there been one of these dossiers which has yet been shown to be substantially serious matters and more than half-true, yet?
4% among self-described liberals seems weirder to me.
Can we even imagine the economic crisis if that happened
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p082w992
There was a nominally Muslim man sitting in No.11 only a few weeks ago.
The MCB made a formal complaint to the EHRC back in May 2019 with a dossier against approx. 150 people. AFAIK nothing has happened - though I would be interested to hear if it has.
https://mcb.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/201905-Complaint-to-the-EHRC-about-Islamophobia-in-the-Conservative-Party_website.pdf
IMO the Tories should have done a full investigation back in the early summer 2019. I don't think there is that much there.
That's going to be a lot of people.
Just last week I listened to Simon Calder tell everyone on 5Live to crack on and get travelling to Italy. I'll refrain from posting what I think about that man.
It's called public health for a reason.
But I am in the Blood Dr's bad books for avoiding a bone marrow biopsy * whilst off for a month with a horrible winter lurgy that lost me 10kg. For some weird reason my HBA1c has gone from moderate to excellent whilst I have been ill. Strange times.
(*) For anyone not familiar, they stick you with something like a hollow traditional hat pin (the ones that suffragettes used to defend themselves) into a bone, and suck out some marrow which has the consistency of tapioca roughly - I am told. Not something to do whilst weak.
https://thumbs-prod.si-cdn.com/4MQ0CJXu6MXIX_tDoi8IHBWqImk=/fit-in/1072x0/https://public-media.si-cdn.com/filer/51/34/5134cd83-9fb6-4296-b7a9-7bb234a848d1/hatpin-defence.jpeg
If we shouldnt go to Italy, it is up to the govt to tell us through Foreign Office official advice.
Not comment on the risks of travelling or the epidemiology of a new pandemic.
I wish you a pleasant crossing. Don’t miss the planetarium, the library, and the commodore club. If you end up in the lower dining room give my regards to Frederic.
Won't somebody think of them?
In any event, the idea that we're going to lower the infection rate and stem the transmission of this illness through mass self-isolation is for the birds. It will be entirely undone by the attitudes of peoples' employers, which will provoke mass presenteeism amongst the unwell. Consider:
1. Most employers are unsympathetic to sickness absence, and regard those without cast-iron excuses as likely guilty of swinging the lead. In my place you go straight onto the automatic treadmill of capability reviews with HR if you're off more than once in a six-month period, or only once but for more than five days. You can't self-certify for more than five days' absence, and the NHS is going to have more important things to worry about than writing out millions and millions of sick notes for people if and when this thing really takes off. So, an awful lot of workers with mild or moderate symptoms are going to drag themselves in because they're terrified of disciplinary sanctions or getting the sack.
2. The more employees who are literally bedridden or forced to stay home to look after children, the greater the pressure on those who aren't to keep turning up to work. Especially due to point one above, attempts to protest that one is perfectly well but self-isolating for two weeks for the good of the community are apt to be received with less than complete equanimity.
3. Those who don't receive time off ill on full-pay, and are therefore faced, variously, with coping on statutory sick pay, draining their savings, or having to wait until the heat death of the universe for emergency benefit payments, will also find themselves under enormous financial pressure to haul arse back into work as soon as possible. Mortgage lenders and landlords alike are not renowned for their sympathetic attitudes towards people who can't cough up the required cash, for reason of illness or anything else.
It will take draconian measures from the Government to even begin to address all these problems, and it has little incentive to act. It wants as many people to stay at work as possible, after all. The worse the slowdown in economic activity, the lower the tax take and the higher the demand for social security payments.
Suppose we better get used to it.
Needless to say his advice on the risks is going to prove to be very poor indeed.