politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now former betting favourite, Elizabeth Warren, quits the race
BREAKING: Elizabeth Warren is dropping out of the presidential race, ending a campaign that at one point seemed poised to win the Democratic nominationhttps://t.co/N8NE1MlcvA
She seemed a decent performer, but had no chance of bouncing back like Biden. I wonder how she'd have done without an upstart Buttegieg not waiting his turn. Not much overlap between them, apparently, but he took up attention and money.
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
It's the right decision from Warren. There was no way she could avoid going down to thumping defeat after defeat now, which could only have damaged her. By suspending her campaign now, she is actually in a better place to re-enter at a later date should that be necessary, for whatever reason, than if she kept running. It also better places her as a unity candidate (and a not-X candidate, from either side) having not gone on an ego trip after her campaign was clearly doomed.
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
Can they please just wait until after Saturday's England Wales game, for which I have tickets?
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
I feel concerned for the 2% who don't know if they organise their books by any system or not.
People that have entrusted organisation of their books to their stranger/more obsessive significant other? My wife's books a arranged alphabetically by author (fiction) and by subject (non-fiction), but I'm not sure whether she knows that!
As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.
17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.
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So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
Yes I suggested 48 hours ago that I reckoned it was now spreading fast. Well, 'rampant' was the admittedly strong word. This all chimes with the Gov't's stated new tactic to try to divert the peak into the summer months.
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
Yes I suggested 48 hours ago that I reckoned it was now spreading fast. Well, 'rampant' was the admittedly strong word. This all chimes with the Gov't's stated new tactic to try to divert the peak into the summer months.
Delay is a new tactic? I thought they were using an existing strategy, not something new.
As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.
17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.
------
So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.
Perhaps. But if you have flu like symptoms and have not been abroad recently are you likely to get checked out?
What about if you have flu like symptoms and have just got back from Italy?
I feel concerned for the 2% who don't know if they organise their books by any system or not.
I deliberately don't order mine and take great delight in not doing so. I have novels by John le Carre scattered amongst tomes like Thatcher: The Downing Street Years and Harry Potter. Hemingway sits next to Churchill, A Guide to Vietnam alongside The Thorn Birds.
It's deliciously subversive and, per contra, tends to draw fingers clutching for the spines.
My old English teacher taught me that books are for reading, not to look pretty or impressive.
As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.
17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.
------
So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.
Perhaps. But if you have flu like symptoms and have been not been abroad recently are you likely to get checked out?
What about if you have flu like symptoms and have just got back from Italy?
Well they are still conducting many many tests, so I think the checks are much wider than just those arriving from abroad.
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
Yes I suggested 48 hours ago that I reckoned it was now spreading fast. Well, 'rampant' was the admittedly strong word. This all chimes with the Gov't's stated new tactic to try to divert the peak into the summer months.
Delay is a new tactic? I thought they were using an existing strategy, not something new.
No they have 3 phases. Contain, Delay, Mitigate. As of today we're now in Phase 2.
I feel concerned for the 2% who don't know if they organise their books by any system or not.
I deliberately don't order mine and take great delight in not doing so. I have novels by John le Carre scattered amongst tomes like Thatcher: The Downing Street Years and Harry Potter. Hemingway sits next to Churchill, A Guide to Vietnam alongside The Thorn Birds.
It's deliciously subversive and, per contra, tends to draw fingers clutching for the spines.
My old English teacher taught me that books are for reading, not to look pretty or impressive.
Oh and such is the state of things that large dollops of books lie perched horizontally above the otherwise vertically arranged shelves. It's a jumble, or indeed a literary jungle, and I love it.
As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.
17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.
------
So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.
Perhaps. But if you have flu like symptoms and have been not been abroad recently are you likely to get checked out?
What about if you have flu like symptoms and have just got back from Italy?
Well they are still conducting many many tests, so I think the checks are much wider than just those arriving from abroad.
I don't think we are doing community surveillance at scale to pick this up in the wild. So it's self selection at the moment based on the criteria being advised, ie recent returnees.
Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But, he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, about 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.)
Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
If you're going into quarantine to hide away from it that's the only thing to do. Needs to be months not days or weeks of isolation.
I think your father was right, community spread is well under way. I wonder if they are related to the couple of were in hospital for unrelated issues and found to have it?
I think we’ll all be quarantined within 10 days.
I have put my elderly parents into quarantine today, supplied with several months of food.
If you're going into quarantine to hide away from it that's the only thing to do. Needs to be months not days or weeks of isolation.
Which is why it's stupid to go OTT now.
I made it clear to them it will be several months, but they literally tick all the boxes for all the extra pre-existing conditions that make you extremely high risk. They are lucky that they can leave the house without having to interact with people.
Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.
Well, it almost certainly wasn't, as a lot of cases will be going unrecorded due to people being too scared by bills to go to the doctor - a factor which will do little to help containment or tracking.
In today's coronavirus briefing, World Health Organization head Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that countries needed to take the outbreak seriously, adding: "This is not a drill. This is not the time to give up. This is not a time for excuses. This is the time for pulling out all the stops.
"Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans."
Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.
Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
He's absolutely correct. With good medical care, the fatality rate is sub 1%.
The problem is not the 1%, it's the 10% who need intensive care. How many of those recover if there is no decent medical care? Who will look after them when they're wheezing and struggling to breathe at home?
And that is very much the risk.
If 1% of people, and those mostly elderly, die of the Coronavirus, then it's not much fun. But the world continues pretty much as it was.
If one in ten people requires intensive care over the course of just three or four months, then that will shake the world.
Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.
Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
He's absolutely correct. With good medical care, the fatality rate is sub 1%.
The problem is not the 1%, it's the 10% who need intensive care. How many of those recover if there is no decent medical care? Who will look after them when they're wheezing and struggling to breathe at home?
And that is very much the risk.
If 1% of people, and those mostly elderly, die of the Coronavirus, then it's not much fun. But the world continues pretty much as it was.
If one in ten people requires intensive care over the course of just three or four months, then that will shake the world.
Robert, you posted something brilliant last night and I've now totally forgotten what it was!
As of 9:00am this morning 25 further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19.
17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.
------
So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.
One thing that the UK media, with its usual slow capacity to notice new developments in an old story has failed to pick up, is the scale of the increase in cases across the rest of Europe. There have been over 250 cases in each of Germany, France and Spain yet barely any mention of them.
It's only a few days since Italy only had 1500 cases (it's around double that now) but that's the total for the rest of the EU, with those three countries accounting for two-thirds of them.
It's not a bad effort considering Bloomberg had 7 paid staffers working the vote for him there. Being a Democratic voter in American Samoa must have been amazing over the last month or so.
So Warren drops out and most of her support will go to Sanders, leaving a straight progressive v centrist fight with Biden (and Tulsi Gabbard, barely registering as an asterisk now but the only other candidate left in the Democratic nomination race)
Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.
Doesn't he have a point though? There will probably be many many undiagnosed mild cases.
He's absolutely correct. With good medical care, the fatality rate is sub 1%.
The problem is not the 1%, it's the 10% who need intensive care. How many of those recover if there is no decent medical care? Who will look after them when they're wheezing and struggling to breathe at home?
And that is very much the risk.
If 1% of people, and those mostly elderly, die of the Coronavirus, then it's not much fun. But the world continues pretty much as it was.
If one in ten people requires intensive care over the course of just three or four months, then that will shake the world.
The Atlantic article I linked made this point in comparison to SARS. In addition to it being easier to tell who had it, if you got SARS those that died went pretty quickly and without wanting to sound heartless didn't clog up the system.
He's probably right. As was his COVID19 mortality rate tweet.
Was he (re Warren)?
The polling evidence is that Warren's support split almost equally between Sanders and Biden/Bloomberg/etc.
If she had quit earlier, then Sanders would have gotten a boost, but so would Biden and Bloomberg.
Sanders may have won more states in that scenario, but it's far from clear that the "left lane" of the Democratic race would end up with more delegates, as her departure would have put Bloomberg over the 15% mark in a bunch of places.
In today's coronavirus briefing, World Health Organization head Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that countries needed to take the outbreak seriously, adding: "This is not a drill. This is not the time to give up. This is not a time for excuses. This is the time for pulling out all the stops.
"Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans."
WHO needs to send a team into Iran ASAP. They’ve not been planning for this, don’t know what to do and anyone with money is getting out and spreading the virus all around the region.
He's probably right. As was his COVID19 mortality rate tweet.
Was he (re Warren)?
The polling evidence is that Warren's support split almost equally between Sanders and Biden/Bloomberg/etc.
If she had quit earlier, then Sanders would have gotten a boost, but so would Biden and Bloomberg.
Sanders may have won more states in that scenario, but it's far from clear that the "left lane" of the Democratic race would end up with more delegates, as her departure would have put Bloomberg over the 15% mark in a bunch of places.
Hmm true actually, she probably held Bloomberg sub 15% in TX and CA. Both good news for Sanders.
He's probably right. As was his COVID19 mortality rate tweet.
Was he (re Warren)?
The polling evidence is that Warren's support split almost equally between Sanders and Biden/Bloomberg/etc.
If she had quit earlier, then Sanders would have gotten a boost, but so would Biden and Bloomberg.
Sanders may have won more states in that scenario, but it's far from clear that the "left lane" of the Democratic race would end up with more delegates, as her departure would have put Bloomberg over the 15% mark in a bunch of places.
Comments
My local council has tow coming up in the next few weeks.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235533402234933248
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/trump-coronavirus-who-global-death-rate-false-number
Tbf to Trump, he has a point - as of yesterday it was 5.6% in the USA.
I'm going to have to reorder my shelves soon to make space for the Lancaster and York book I'm reading currently.
I wonder if Bernie will look back and think, if only I'd backed her rather than running myself.
Also, how many of the 102 surviving diagnosed cases in the USA may yet succumb?
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1235598653114511360
I feel concerned for the 2% who don't know if they organise their books by any system or not.
I predict the British public will go from not giving a toss to mad panic within a couple of days.
Please just wash your hands and stop getting on public transport coughing and spluttering. That would be a start.
https://twitter.com/kirkkorner/status/1235597420584521728
17 were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation. Eight patients were identified in the UK where it is not yet clear whether they contracted it directly or indirectly from an individual who had recently returned from abroad. This is being investigated and contact tracing has begun.
------
So still at the phase when the vast majority of people are those that have flown back from Italy, China, Iran.
What about if you have flu like symptoms and have just got back from Italy?
It's deliciously subversive and, per contra, tends to draw fingers clutching for the spines.
My old English teacher taught me that books are for reading, not to look pretty or impressive.
Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
The world is about to end.
Mortality in China has now reached one per half million of the population...
Which is why it's stupid to go OTT now.
Not such a clever point after all.
People are always going to be drawn to your James Bond first editions.
"Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51747782
The problem is not the 1%, it's the 10% who need intensive care. How many of those recover if there is no decent medical care? Who will look after them when they're wheezing and struggling to breathe at home?
And that is very much the risk.
If 1% of people, and those mostly elderly, die of the Coronavirus, then it's not much fun. But the world continues pretty much as it was.
If one in ten people requires intensive care over the course of just three or four months, then that will shake the world.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1235604572850343937?s=21
It's only a few days since Italy only had 1500 cases (it's around double that now) but that's the total for the rest of the EU, with those three countries accounting for two-thirds of them.
What is this word ?
According to the green papers the American Samoa vote was
175 Bloomberg
103 Gabbard
37 Sanders
31 Biden
5 Warren.
Makes the qualifying vote 278.
62.9% Bloomberg
37.1% Gabbard
3.77 Bloomberg Delegates
2.26 Gabbard
Closest rounding is to 4 Bloomberg; 2 Gabbard.
It's not a bad effort considering Bloomberg had 7 paid staffers working the vote for him there. Being a Democratic voter in American Samoa must have been amazing over the last month or so.
The polling evidence is that Warren's support split almost equally between Sanders and Biden/Bloomberg/etc.
If she had quit earlier, then Sanders would have gotten a boost, but so would Biden and Bloomberg.
Sanders may have won more states in that scenario, but it's far from clear that the "left lane" of the Democratic race would end up with more delegates, as her departure would have put Bloomberg over the 15% mark in a bunch of places.
It is an observation that there is a lot of hysteria out there, which is largely not warranted.
Despite the yammerings from eg SeanT's padded cell, it still hasn't actually spread very far and we don't know the outcome.
It really is "take sensible precautions, keep calm and carry on".
It's useful if you're looking into a particular event, as the accounts that deal with it will generally be in books that sit close together.
There will always be a new distraction.
If people die in large numbers he will get some of the blame whatever he tweets.
No testing = no corona virus