After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
It seems odd that so many of our cases are still people returning from abroad, and so few being spread here.
We’d have to be shit hot at testing everyone coming back from northern Italy (etc), and/or returnees would have to be equally hot at isolating themselves from family and friends, to avoid all contact with Brits. Despite travelling all the way home, etc.
OT good meta piece by Tyler Cowen on the covid-19 arguments:
Overall, the growthers tend to be analytical people who work a lot with numbers and are used to modeling the problems they face. The mindset in Washington, by contrast — and indeed much of America — is much closer to the base-raters.
The base-raters, when assessing the likelihood of a particular scenario, start by asking how often it has happened before. That is, they estimate its base-rate likelihood. And history shows that major pandemics have lately been rare.
In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, on which day will the patch cover half of the lake?
The "lot of fuss about nothing" claim depends heavily on not knowing the right answer to that.
The "shut down the country and airports and cancel all sports and gatherings now" hysteria depends upon not knowing the answer too.
The point of cancelling large gatherings is that doubling in size is not a given, you can add stuff to the water that makes it less friendly to lilies. Unfortunately they grow under the water where you can't see them before they show up on top, so you have to add it to all the water in the lake, even though most of the water doesn't yet have lilies in it.
I will refuse to believe that the government is taking the threat seriously until they close down the tube in London at the very least (and the rail network arguably after that).
Hang on a sec! I still need to do Inverness to Kyle, Inverness to Thurso and Wick, and Inverurie to Inverness. Oh and Dale Rail from Clitheroe to Hellifield!
Slumming it in Aberdeen this week with brother, sister in law and their newborn son. How likely is the Aberdeen to Inverness line to be swamped by hand-egg fans at the weekend? But will hopefully be able to do it by Friday...
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Which resort? I was in Passo Tonale two weeks ago.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Relative populations?
Good point. London approx 9 million. South Tyrol about 0.5 million plus a few hundred thousand skiiers. Still prefer the open pistes to the crowded tube. We have instructions to ski at least one metre apart.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Which resort? I was in Passo Tonale two weeks ago.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Which resort? I was in Passo Tonale two weeks ago.
Good for you that you are still going.
Corvara on the Sella Ronde. I am taking serious precautions including upon my return.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
Charming.
I've been nice to people on here despite being roundly mocked, for a month, for being completely right about everything. I was the only adult in a room full of wailing toddlers, like Phillip, Topping, Ian, etc.
I'm done with it. If the mods want to block me, lettem. We're all way beyond that.
Your post to Topping was horrible, even in supposed jest. And how do you know you are completely right? This thing hasn't played out yet. Get a grip.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
Charming.
I've been nice to people on here despite being roundly mocked, for a month, for being completely right about everything. I was the only adult in a room full of wailing toddlers, like Phillip, Topping, Ian, etc.
I'm done with it. If the mods want to block me, lettem. We're all way beyond that.
I think you have your analogy the wrong way around.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Which resort? I was in Passo Tonale two weeks ago.
Good for you that you are still going.
Corvara on the Sella Ronde. I am taking serious precautions including upon my return.
I did the San Leonardo to Moso gorge walk last year. A nice area.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
Charming.
I've been nice to people on here despite being roundly mocked, for a month, for being completely right about everything. I was the only adult in a room full of wailing toddlers, like Phillip, Topping, Ian, etc.
I'm done with it. If the mods want to block me, lettem. We're all way beyond that.
When asked for practical advice your only suggestion was to sell shares. Ian suggested the same, at the same point in time, just without the melodrama and attention seeking.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
Charming.
I am flattered. He could no more efficiently tell me how much he looks up to me if he popped round to my home and tried to elbow bump me.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
*Known* cases...
Edit: But your tube v open pistes point is certainly valid...
Yes. I was having a debate on this point with a friend earlier.
At some point infection might be everywhere, and there may be no cause to isolate. 3% of the world is gonna die. 10% will maybe die without acute care.
Those are the numbers we are potentially looking at. A significant shrinkage of the the global population.
So you might as well head out and do your thang.
The Black Death was obviously a boon for more than just agricultural workers then.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
Charming.
I've been nice to people on here despite being roundly mocked, for a month, for being completely right about everything. I was the only adult in a room full of wailing toddlers, like Phillip, Topping, Ian, etc.
I'm done with it. If the mods want to block me, lettem. We're all way beyond that.
I think you have your analogy the wrong way around.
No, I don't. Think about it.
The one thing you are not doing is behaving like a level headed grown up.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Which resort? I was in Passo Tonale two weeks ago.
Good for you that you are still going.
Corvara on the Sella Ronde. I am taking serious precautions including upon my return.
Lucky you - hope you get some fresh snow. Flying into Venice or Innsbruck?
It seems odd that so many of our cases are still people returning from abroad, and so few being spread here.
We’d have to be shit hot at testing everyone coming back from northern Italy (etc), and/or returnees would have to be equally hot at isolating themselves from family and friends, to avoid all contact with Brits. Despite travelling all the way home, etc.
That would be a useful statistic, I have tried to estimate the imported v community cases in Spain as each announcement has being saying traveler from .... or source not known. It was running at under 10% community spread but as the volume of cases rise the quality of info seems to be falling.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
It doesn’t predict anything. She has just drawn a line (curve) through some dots. As new dots come in, she’ll keep moving the line. At the end, she’ll still have a line through some dots, and have predicted nothing.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Relative populations?
Good point. London approx 9 million. South Tyrol about 0.5 million plus a few hundred thousand skiiers. Still prefer the open pistes to the crowded tube. We have instructions to ski at least one metre apart.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Which resort? I was in Passo Tonale two weeks ago.
Good for you that you are still going.
Corvara on the Sella Ronde. I am taking serious precautions including upon my return.
Lucky you - hope you get some fresh snow. Flying into Venice or Innsbruck?
Innsbruck. Its snowing this week, sunny periods next week.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
Are you considering your posts as constructive, to enable people to be forewarned and prepared ? I can understand if you do.
I have to say, though, sometimes it's seems that you're wanting to share the truth of gloom and fear, as if that is the only truth. EveniIf the disease goes to the absolute worst end of predictions, which we have no idea about so far, life isn't possible on the basis of this constant fear.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
This group really needs a mute or block option.
This idiot is a waste of time and effort.
Every village needs its idiot.
Given how events have unfolded calling him an idiot is marginally harsh. Hysterical may be more apt.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Which resort? I was in Passo Tonale two weeks ago.
Good for you that you are still going.
Corvara on the Sella Ronde. I am taking serious precautions including upon my return.
Lucky you - hope you get some fresh snow. Flying into Venice or Innsbruck?
Innsbruck. Its snowing this week, sunny periods next week.
Innsbruck is a v easy airport I find - small and convenient car hire.
I was in Obergurgl, Austria a few weeks ago and at the highest point there is a magnificent view, right across to the Marmalada, Sella Ronda.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
This group really needs a mute or block option.
This idiot is a waste of time and effort.
Every village needs its idiot.
Given how events have unfolded calling him an idiot is marginally harsh. Hysterical may be more apt.
I picked up on "idiot" from the post I was responding to but wouldn't have done so had I disagreed with its use.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
It doesn’t predict anything. She has just drawn a line (curve) through some dots. As new dots come in, she’ll keep moving the line. At the end, she’ll still have a line through some dots, and have predicted nothing.
This attitude is just insane.
This is why I (and others) are the adults, and you and Topping etc are the snotty nosed toddlers.
You don't like what the big bad older person is saying, because it is scary, and makes you wet yourself, so you wail at them and hit them with tiny fists.
Behaviourally, it is interesting. On a forum, it becomes boring.
You are delusional, unable even to see yourself in the mirror.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
Which resort? I was in Passo Tonale two weeks ago.
Good for you that you are still going.
Corvara on the Sella Ronde. I am taking serious precautions including upon my return.
Lucky you - hope you get some fresh snow. Flying into Venice or Innsbruck?
Innsbruck. Its snowing this week, sunny periods next week.
Innsbruck is a v easy airport I find - small and convenient car hire.
I was in Obergurgl, Austria a few weeks ago and at the highest point there is a magnificent view, right across to the Marmalada, Sella Ronda.
I plan to go up the Marmalada and ski all the way down. I've done it before.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
Bloomberg is 78 and his net worth is estimated at $55 billion. So what if he dropped half a billion on a one-off gamble for the presidency? It affects his lifestyle not one bit. For you or me, it's eye-watering. For him, it's chump change.
He'll be far more concerned about the reputational side. $500 million is nothing. Sneers from Trump, and cheap laughs on TV shows are probably infinitely more important to him.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
It doesn’t predict anything. She has just drawn a line (curve) through some dots. As new dots come in, she’ll keep moving the line. At the end, she’ll still have a line through some dots, and have predicted nothing.
This attitude is just insane.
This is why I (and others) are the adults, and you and Topping etc are the snotty nosed toddlers.
You don't like what the big bad older person is saying, because it is scary, and makes you wet yourself, so you wail at them and hit them with tiny fists.
Behaviourally, it is interesting. On a forum, it becomes boring.
You are delusional, unable even to see yourself in the mirror.
S'OK. He's catastrophising. It's a thing. I presume that the alcohol intensifies it while also as he says removing inhibitions he might for some reason have had with strangers on the internet.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
It doesn’t predict anything. She has just drawn a line (curve) through some dots. As new dots come in, she’ll keep moving the line. At the end, she’ll still have a line through some dots, and have predicted nothing.
This attitude is just insane.
This is why I (and others) are the adults, and you and Topping etc are the snotty nosed toddlers.
You don't like what the big bad older person is saying, because it is scary, and makes you wet yourself, so you wail at them and hit them with tiny fists.
Behaviourally, it is interesting. On a forum, it becomes boring.
It's not insane it's just pointing one of the flaws in the "model".
I seem to remember 3 different lines through the dots though.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day in an intimately enclosed space.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
Yes a fair point in a few weeks and probably one that is being modelled.
But the risk at the moment is people bringing it in. Why would we encourage that just for a silly game that hardly anyone cares about?
Biden won't beat Trump. Very few people who have held cabinet positions go on the be president, it IS only ex-VP'sn but they either did something special in office, or ran against a VP. Biden is a dafty and his son already caused one president to be impeached.
I genuinely can't see how he loses. My one caveat - and it is a big one - is his condition. There will be gaffes. Fine, it's priced in, but not if they are of a nature and frequency that lead people to go, "You know that? This guy is not up to it. It's sad. I'd like to vote for him but I don't think I can."
Has he "gone over" in other words? Not because he is 77 years old. It happens to different people at different ages. Has it happened with Joe? If it has, the Dems might be about to make a monumental blunder. On balance, I think it's going to be OK.
It doesn't matter. He's presidential by virtue of the fact that he's president, and he's ready to fight dirtier than Biden ever could. Perception is reality and the aim isn't to raise his own popularity, it's to lower everyone else's. Watch.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
Bloomberg is 78 and his net worth is estimated at $55 billion. So what if he dropped half a billion on a one-off gamble for the presidency? It affects his lifestyle not one bit. For you or me, it's eye-watering. For him, it's chump change.
He'll be far more concerned about the reputational side. $500 million is nothing. Sneers from Trump, and cheap laughs on TV shows are probably infinitely more important to him.
More seriously, he's now got a lot of data, will be interesting to see how he uses it.
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
As of yesterday you were in Paris .....trying to shake hands with people.
lol. You are a total f*cking moron and you are now more likely to die. Well done.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
"the next one could be a lot worse"
Genius.
Yes I am talking about fools like you.
It wouldn’t be so bad if, when 4% of the population haven’t died, there was the slightest chance that he might have learned something. But we all know that when the next issue of concern comes along he’ll be just the same.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
Biden is a 79% chance (1.27) as nominee and a 35% chance (2.82) as next president. That implies a 44% chance of beating Trump if Biden is nominee.
I would have thought his chances of beating Trump were 50% or more from the head to head polls in the swing states, the momentum that Biden will now have (back a winner), and the downsides for Trump (virus, healthcare, economy) which don't yet show in the polls.
Biden is a 79% chance (1.27) as nominee and a 35% chance (2.82) as next president. That implies a 44% chance of beating Trump if Biden is nominee.
I would have thought his chances of beating Trump were 50% or more from the head to head polls in the swing states, the momentum that Biden will now have (back a winner), and the downsides for Trump (virus, healthcare, economy) which don't yet show in the polls.
First term presidents normally get reelected. I expect that will be the default on the markets until Trump really messes up.
Bloomberg is 78 and his net worth is estimated at $55 billion. So what if he dropped half a billion on a one-off gamble for the presidency? It affects his lifestyle not one bit. For you or me, it's eye-watering. For him, it's chump change.
He'll be far more concerned about the reputational side. $500 million is nothing. Sneers from Trump, and cheap laughs on TV shows are probably infinitely more important to him.
Even that he can rationalize away - telling himself he gave the Dems a backstop when it looked like they needed it, but now they don't. And he can now use the infrastructure he has created for this run and his other causes (gun control, education) to support Biden's fight against Trump.
He'll be disappointed, but he'll rationalize it and move on to the next challenge because that is the mindset of someone as genuinely successful (i.e. not Trumpian successful) as Bloomberg.
Is Sander`s cause totally lost? Can now get 21 - BF for Next President.
This seems a slight over-correction, but only slight.
He's running out of road in a truncated primary season, with less time to regain momentum between defeats. 365 more delegates next Tuesday, 577 the Tuesday after that.
He needs something big to change the narrative... which isn't impossible, but tick-tock.
Bloomberg is 78 and his net worth is estimated at $55 billion. So what if he dropped half a billion on a one-off gamble for the presidency? It affects his lifestyle not one bit. For you or me, it's eye-watering. For him, it's chump change.
He'll be far more concerned about the reputational side. $500 million is nothing. Sneers from Trump, and cheap laughs on TV shows are probably infinitely more important to him.
Even that he can rationalize away - telling himself he gave the Dems a backstop when it looked like they needed it, but now they don't. And he can now use the infrastructure he has created for this run and his other causes (gun control, education) to support Biden's fight against Trump.
He'll be disappointed, but he'll rationalize it and move on to the next challenge because that is the mindset of someone as genuinely successful (i.e. not Trumpian successful) as Bloomberg.
True. And Trump would be wise not to gloat too much... how much is each mocking tweet worth in terms of $$$ to the Biden campaign?
After watching the press conference yesterday I was largely reassured by our strategy.
However, I really do not understand why the egg chasing is going ahead this weekend.
If cancelling that gave us another week of respite then I think most in the country would take that.
Thoughts?
Sorry to bang on about it but perhaps the most efficient transmission vector for this disease is the London Underground. If they are going to cancel a sports event with 80,000-odd people in the fresh air then they should cancel the tube also which carries 2m people per day in an intimately enclosed space.
Oh and the gyms because those are surely a hotbed of disease transmission. And...and...
No point with the marquee events. If the risk is such that they want to stop the spread they must take the appropriate steps and that means go big.
Yes a fair point in a few weeks and probably one that is being modelled.
But the risk at the moment is people bringing it in. Why would we encourage that just for a silly game that hardly anyone cares about?
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
It doesn’t predict anything. She has just drawn a line (curve) through some dots. As new dots come in, she’ll keep moving the line. At the end, she’ll still have a line through some dots, and have predicted nothing.
This attitude is just insane.
This is why I (and others) are the adults, and you and Topping etc are the snotty nosed toddlers.
You don't like what the big bad older person is saying, because it is scary, and makes you wet yourself, so you wail at them and hit them with tiny fists.
Behaviourally, it is interesting. On a forum, it becomes boring.
It's not insane it's just pointing one of the flaws in the "model".
I seem to remember 3 different lines through the dots though.
I don't understand what value the model by Henrietta is adding though? If you want a rough idea of numbers then just take some of the headlines and do a back of the fag paper calculation. But writing it out here every few days as if it is telling us something *useful* seems a bit callous.
Can you imagine someone screaming in the town hall during WW1 about the fatality rates and that they have done some forward calculations of what that meant for next week/month/year? I don't think it would go down well.
If it is someone who really understands how to put infectious disease models together and that information is being put to some useful purpose, then fair enough.
But for us I think it is sufficient to know that this is going to be bad. That's just me though.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
Though may be in part increased testing in Monday.
Dr Foxy not a happy bunny.
Now 6 cases in London where I am, compared with 4 in South Tyrol, Italy where I am going skiing on Saturday. I'll feel safer on a wide open piste than on the tube.
*Known* cases...
Edit: But your tube v open pistes point is certainly valid...
Yes. I was having a debate on this point with a friend earlier.
At some point infection might be everywhere, and there may be no cause to isolate. 3% of the world is gonna die. 10% will maybe die without acute care.
Those are the numbers we are potentially looking at. A significant shrinkage of the the global population.
So you might as well head out and do your thang.
Hahaha!! That's my take too. Once I've got this building contractor to finish his job (which unfortunately may take some time), I'll be off on an open-ended adventure. I was thinking somewhere like the Old Town in Ljubljana...
Yes, me too.
I have a lovely job in Nicaragua coming up, a private island in a lake etc. Until recently I was thinking cautiously - cancel everything, hide out, etc. As many will do. And as many will be forced to do. There will be lockdowns, I expect.
Now, I dunno. If the plague is everywhere being somewhere particular makes no sense, plus if there's a 5-10% chance of dying whatever, then we should be enjoying every moment.
Eat, Drink and Be Merry!
You should always live every week like it is your last. Enjoy life. Too short, too precious.
Been in London today. Saw a grand total of 3 people with face masks. And one of them had taken it off to make a phone call. And yet the media always seem to find someone in a mask for their photos. Funny that.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
We shall see where we end up. Shit time? You betcha. But as Mr Meeks, together with just about any sensible soul, has noted, you can be concerned without being an absolute twat about it and thereby making it all about yourself.
But for sure, he adds to the gaiety of the site. I don't forgive him for being a c*** wrt tim but that's small beer I suppose in the scheme of things.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
Biomass !!!!
I'm over 50, as are many of my peers.
Is it good we may die due to this ?
Really ?
I am well over 50.
Then it could well be argued you're taking an artificially over-distanced approach.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
Biomass !!!!
I'm over 50, as are many of my peers.
Is it good we may die due to this ?
Really ?
I am well over 50.
Do you form a huddle at the meet and despair at your prospects given the forthcoming 5ft hedges?
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
It doesn’t predict anything. She has just drawn a line (curve) through some dots. As new dots come in, she’ll keep moving the line. At the end, she’ll still have a line through some dots, and have predicted nothing.
This attitude is just insane.
This is why I (and others) are the adults, and you and Topping etc are the snotty nosed toddlers.
You don't like what the big bad older person is saying, because it is scary, and makes you wet yourself, so you wail at them and hit them with tiny fists.
Behaviourally, it is interesting. On a forum, it becomes boring.
It's not insane it's just pointing one of the flaws in the "model".
I seem to remember 3 different lines through the dots though.
I don't understand what value the model by Henrietta is adding though? If you want a rough idea of numbers then just take some of the headlines and do a back of the fag paper calculation. But writing it out here every few days as if it is telling us something *useful* seems a bit callous.
Can you imagine someone screaming in the town hall during WW1 about the fatality rates and that they have done some forward calculations of what that meant for next week/month/year? I don't think it would go down well.
If it is someone who really understands how to put infectious disease models together and that information is being put to some useful purpose, then fair enough.
But for us I think it is sufficient to know that this is going to be bad. That's just me though.
This is PB. We are data geeks. We analyse numbers, and bet on them.
More importantly, if a mid range scenario for coronavirus is that, say, "X million will die", then this has an enormous impact on almost any political or economic forecasting
So if we DON'T discuss this (out of what, politeness? deference to the faint hearted? then the site's intrinsic purpose is nullified.
Is not living in fear, even if there is a major threat, faint-hearted, or the opposite ?
OT good meta piece by Tyler Cowen on the covid-19 arguments:
Overall, the growthers tend to be analytical people who work a lot with numbers and are used to modeling the problems they face. The mindset in Washington, by contrast — and indeed much of America — is much closer to the base-raters.
The base-raters, when assessing the likelihood of a particular scenario, start by asking how often it has happened before. That is, they estimate its base-rate likelihood. And history shows that major pandemics have lately been rare.
In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, on which day will the patch cover half of the lake?
The "lot of fuss about nothing" claim depends heavily on not knowing the right answer to that.
The "shut down the country and airports and cancel all sports and gatherings now" hysteria depends upon not knowing the answer too.
The point of cancelling large gatherings is that doubling in size is not a given, you can add stuff to the water that makes it less friendly to lilies. Unfortunately they grow under the water where you can't see them before they show up on top, so you have to add it to all the water in the lake, even though most of the water doesn't yet have lilies in it.
I will refuse to believe that the government is taking the threat seriously until they close down the tube in London at the very least (and the rail network arguably after that).
Hang on a sec! I still need to do Inverness to Kyle, Inverness to Thurso and Wick, and Inverurie to Inverness. Oh and Dale Rail from Clitheroe to Hellifield!
Slumming it in Aberdeen this week with brother, sister in law and their newborn son. How likely is the Aberdeen to Inverness line to be swamped by hand-egg fans at the weekend? But will hopefully be able to do it by Friday...
You also need to do the curve that avoids Inverness station. One train per day does that, I think.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
It doesn’t predict anything. She has just drawn a line (curve) through some dots. As new dots come in, she’ll keep moving the line. At the end, she’ll still have a line through some dots, and have predicted nothing.
This attitude is just insane.
This is why I (and others) are the adults, and you and Topping etc are the snotty nosed toddlers.
You don't like what the big bad older person is saying, because it is scary, and makes you wet yourself, so you wail at them and hit them with tiny fists.
Behaviourally, it is interesting. On a forum, it becomes boring.
It's not insane it's just pointing one of the flaws in the "model".
I seem to remember 3 different lines through the dots though.
I don't understand what value the model by Henrietta is adding though? If you want a rough idea of numbers then just take some of the headlines and do a back of the fag paper calculation. But writing it out here every few days as if it is telling us something *useful* seems a bit callous.
Can you imagine someone screaming in the town hall during WW1 about the fatality rates and that they have done some forward calculations of what that meant for next week/month/year? I don't think it would go down well.
If it is someone who really understands how to put infectious disease models together and that information is being put to some useful purpose, then fair enough.
But for us I think it is sufficient to know that this is going to be bad. That's just me though.
This is PB. We are data geeks. We analyse numbers, and bet on them.
More importantly, if a mid range scenario for coronavirus is that, say, "X million will die", then this has an enormous impact on almost any political or economic forecasting
So if we DON'T discuss this (out of what, politeness? deference to the faint hearted?) then the site's intrinsic purpose is nullified.
You are starting to sound like a fox hunter trying to explain how damaging foxes are, when we all know you just enjoy chasing them about on horseback for fun.
You are enjoying your drama queen act, and if we really were talking about two million UK dead you shouldn’t be.
There are five and a half months from now until the Republican convention which will determine who Betfair pay out on as the Republican nominee. What could possibly go wrong? Trump can be laid at 1.06. He has already asked whether he could nuke a hurricane and use a flu vaccine against the coronavirus. He is the most iconic president since JFK, in a country where the median age is 38. "The President and the Land are One" is what he will have to go for, and it won't work.
My best model (logistic) predicts near-universal infection by early May, ~11 million deaths in the US by the summer. Can they hold e-conventions?
Would you mind posting your projections for what numbers in the UK might look like, please?
I haven't looked at any one country individually yet. I'm using figures for the world outside of China, starting when the number was 697 on 15 Feb.
sure you've got a perfectly good reason for excluding China (though I note you include every single human on the planet in your predictions??)
China have taken measures that no other country is able to do,
Henrietta2's model L is looking very good (at this early stage). It predicts very widespread infection, and the associated social desolation, pretty damn soon.
It doesn’t predict anything. She has just drawn a line (curve) through some dots. As new dots come in, she’ll keep moving the line. At the end, she’ll still have a line through some dots, and have predicted nothing.
This attitude is just insane.
This is why I (and others) are the adults, and you and Topping etc are the snotty nosed toddlers.
You don't like what the big bad older person is saying, because it is scary, and makes you wet yourself, so you wail at them and hit them with tiny fists.
Behaviourally, it is interesting. On a forum, it becomes boring.
It's not insane it's just pointing one of the flaws in the "model".
I seem to remember 3 different lines through the dots though.
I don't understand what value the model by Henrietta is adding though? If you want a rough idea of numbers then just take some of the headlines and do a back of the fag paper calculation. But writing it out here every few days as if it is telling us something *useful* seems a bit callous.
Can you imagine someone screaming in the town hall during WW1 about the fatality rates and that they have done some forward calculations of what that meant for next week/month/year? I don't think it would go down well.
If it is someone who really understands how to put infectious disease models together and that information is being put to some useful purpose, then fair enough.
But for us I think it is sufficient to know that this is going to be bad. That's just me though.
This is PB. We are data geeks. We analyse numbers, and bet on them.
More importantly, if a mid range scenario for coronavirus is that, say, "X million will die", then this has an enormous impact on almost any political or economic forecasting
So if we DON'T discuss this (out of what, politeness? deference to the faint hearted?) then the site's intrinsic purpose is nullified.
Nah not for me. No-one is going to make any decisions based on Henrietta's model. I think we need to conduct ourselves in a proper way as much as possible. We have all got a part to play.
Dr Foxy posted the photo of South Korea doing drive through testing. Seems like UK is getting it as well.
Potential coronavirus patients are being tested at drive-thru centres in London today as part of a city-wide bid to stop the infection from spreading at hospitals.
A test centre has opened at Parsons Green, west London, where people who believe they have contracted Covid-19 can be checked while still sat in their own cars.
Photos taken today show brave nurses donning face masks and protective glasses while swabbing patients in their nose and mouth through an open car window.
The Central London Community Healthcare NHS trust launched the scheme this week. If successful, it will be rolled out more widely across England.
The problem with these "10% of the world's population are going to die of this virus" predictions isn't just that they are wrong. I know lots of people who were saying the same kind of thing for the last 3 viruses. Now people have been complacent, and perhaps as a result we've lost the chance to contain this one. Part of the fault lies with the hysterical doom-mongers.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
Well, no, because if it's real it ain't catastrophising - unless you are making an "it's only a movie" point. Even in real life, the ship does sometimes hit the iceberg. I am not panicking, because I don't think a good clear out of the age >50 biomass is something to worry about long term, but it takes anti-vaxxer levels of ascientism to be able to believe that we are not in for a seriously shit time.
Biomass !!!!
I'm over 50, as are many of my peers.
Is it good we may die due to this ?
Really ?
I am well over 50.
Do you form a huddle at the meet and despair at your prospects given the forthcoming 5ft hedges?
Well ... yes, actually. It's a huddle of one, though, and the despair is silent and internalised.
Also these days I go through gates, if there is one.
Been in London today. Saw a grand total of 3 people with face masks. And one of them had taken it off to make a phone call. And yet the media always seem to find someone in a mask for their photos. Funny that.
I've been to several supermarkets today (for different reasons) across north London and Essex
Saw my first real "panic buying". Large queues, huge purchases, handwash sold out, signs saying "Sorry we don't have X or X"
I actually don't think this can be fairly labelled panic buying. It is a rational response to the likelihood that we are following Italy into a serious situation with closed schools, quarantines, lockdowns
LOL sorry I need to break my don't respond directly to twats rule.
So have I got this right, people are going into lockdown and quarantine. So why are they buying handwash if they aren't going to go anywhere?
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We’d have to be shit hot at testing everyone coming back from northern Italy (etc), and/or returnees would have to be equally hot at isolating themselves from family and friends, to avoid all contact with Brits. Despite travelling all the way home, etc.
Slumming it in Aberdeen this week with brother, sister in law and their newborn son. How likely is the Aberdeen to Inverness line to be swamped by hand-egg fans at the weekend? But will hopefully be able to do it by Friday...
Good for you that you are still going.
This idiot is a waste of time and effort.
Have fun.
I have to say, though, sometimes it's seems that you're wanting to share the truth of gloom and fear, as if that is the only truth. EveniIf the disease goes to the absolute worst end of predictions, which we have no idea about so far, life isn't possible on the basis of this constant fear.
I was in Obergurgl, Austria a few weeks ago and at the highest point there is a magnificent view, right across to the Marmalada, Sella Ronda.
We might actually get a wake-up call with this pandemic, as the next one could be a lot worse and we need to have better systems in place around the world.
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He'll be far more concerned about the reputational side. $500 million is nothing. Sneers from Trump, and cheap laughs on TV shows are probably infinitely more important to him.
I seem to remember 3 different lines through the dots though.
But the risk at the moment is people bringing it in. Why would we encourage that just for a silly game that hardly anyone cares about?
You know how it is - the bit when you catch sight of the monster in a horror film and you finally know it's real.
As I said, catastrophising.
I would have thought his chances of beating Trump were 50% or more from the head to head polls in the swing states, the momentum that Biden will now have (back a winner), and the downsides for Trump (virus, healthcare, economy) which don't yet show in the polls.
Sanders 33.6
Biden 24.9
Bloomberg 14.3
Warren 12.0
He'll be disappointed, but he'll rationalize it and move on to the next challenge because that is the mindset of someone as genuinely successful (i.e. not Trumpian successful) as Bloomberg.
He's running out of road in a truncated primary season, with less time to regain momentum between defeats. 365 more delegates next Tuesday, 577 the Tuesday after that.
He needs something big to change the narrative... which isn't impossible, but tick-tock.
IMO, Biden has this now, unless he does a Biden on us.
Can you imagine someone screaming in the town hall during WW1 about the fatality rates and that they have done some forward calculations of what that meant for next week/month/year? I don't think it would go down well.
If it is someone who really understands how to put infectious disease models together and that information is being put to some useful purpose, then fair enough.
But for us I think it is sufficient to know that this is going to be bad. That's just me though.
https://twitter.com/joelwilliams74/status/1235231044900655105
https://twitter.com/mj_lee/status/1235227607819575297
Warren slew Bloomberg in the debate, staying in now could turn her into a Gabbard like figure.
Sky report Bloomberg has dropped out and supports Biden
I'm over 50, as are many of my peers.
Is it good we may die due to this ?
Really ?
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1235229982009499649
But for sure, he adds to the gaiety of the site. I don't forgive him for being a c*** wrt tim but that's small beer I suppose in the scheme of things.
"Elizabeth is talking to her team to assess the path forward," the campaign aide said.
It's err not very good.
You are enjoying your drama queen act, and if we really were talking about two million UK dead you shouldn’t be.
Potential coronavirus patients are being tested at drive-thru centres in London today as part of a city-wide bid to stop the infection from spreading at hospitals.
A test centre has opened at Parsons Green, west London, where people who believe they have contracted Covid-19 can be checked while still sat in their own cars.
Photos taken today show brave nurses donning face masks and protective glasses while swabbing patients in their nose and mouth through an open car window.
The Central London Community Healthcare NHS trust launched the scheme this week. If successful, it will be rolled out more widely across England.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8073749/NHS-sets-London-coronavirus-testing-centre-UK-cases-rise-53.html
Also these days I go through gates, if there is one.
So have I got this right, people are going into lockdown and quarantine. So why are they buying handwash if they aren't going to go anywhere?