politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Tuesday: With just over four hours to go before the coun

Andy_JS said:

This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).

He looks like a Jeremy Corbyn who can smile and laugh naturally rather than be a McAngryface.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

CNN amusing themselves by point out how much money Bloomberg has burned through in Virginia alone.

Blomberg's spending numbers are grist to the mills of all the networks. They are truly stunning. We may be about to find out if Tip O'Neill was right, and money really is the mother's milk of politics.

Andy_JS said:

This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234989168448589825?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234992420720263169?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234988979729993728?s=20

Chameleon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Chameleon said:

nico67 said:

I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .

Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .

I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .

It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.

It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8XdL1nZrIU&t=3s

Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.

However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,

I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.

Quincel said:

Andy_JS said:

Which TV coverage of Super Tuesday is the best to watch?

I've got CBS and CNN livestreams on Youtube and just switch between them. Neither is great tbh. Fox is usually good, gonna find that now and try it.

Fox is usually agreed to have the best 'decision desk', but they're all fairly decent.

HYUFD said:

Vermont less thsn 1% in

Sanders 57%
Biden 19%
Warren 9%
Bloomberg 9%

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-vermont-president-democrat-primary-election.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Strong for Biden

Bloomberg has broken his duck. American Samoa.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Chameleon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Chameleon said:

nico67 said:

I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .

Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .

I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .

It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.

It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8XdL1nZrIU&t=3s

Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.

However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,

I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.

For those in the "I could only vote for a candidate I would enjoy having a drink with." column, Biden scores high.

Philip_Thompson said:

I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.

If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.

Didn't they say the same thing about Ronald Reagan? Or maybe that was later in his presidency. I suppose it's okay to be a figurehead if you have a lot of good advisors working in the background.

Philip_Thompson said:

I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.

If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.

I think that's right.

And in normal times, I think Trump would destroy him.

These are not, however, normal times.

Andy_JS said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.

If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.

Didn't they say the same thing about Ronald Reagan? Or maybe that was later in his presidency. I suppose it's okay to be a figurehead if you have a lot of good advisors working in the background.

There used to be a line about staff putting NoDoz in his jelly beans.

Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.

If that's true and he's on 23% in an average then I guess he could be below the 15% threshold in multiple districts which would gift Biden 100% of those districts delegates?

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Chameleon said:

WhisperingOracle said:

Chameleon said:

nico67 said:

I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .

Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .

I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .

It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.

It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8XdL1nZrIU&t=3s

Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.

However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,

I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.

I agree, on the flipside Abbot from her superb speech in 2008 to current is a demonstration of how sharp decline can be.

However Biden's speech was much more recent. I have little doubt that Biden would be at least an adequate President.

Andy_JS said:

This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).

Yes, I think Sanders is a much more complicated figure than that, with a longer lineage.

I think Sanders has his attributes, but his insistence on calling himself himself socialist, when his programme is really FDR democrat, and his personal style is in fact a much older and historically more authentic style of US populism than Trump's, is his achilles' heel.

Interestingly, many of the much older, original populists in Sanders' style and tradition were overtly Christian - he's a late Jewish entry.

A 30% lead in Virginia is crushing. That's a very bad night for Sanders.

NYT reporter observes:

Jennifer Medina, in Los Angeles 12m ago
This is a scenario Sanders supporters worried about: lots of attention on early wins for Biden. More favorable states for Sanders won’t report until much later.

AL, ME, MA, OK, most of TN now closed. (Some of TN closes at 11pm per judge's ruling today)

Philip_Thompson said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.

If that's true and he's on 23% in an average then I guess he could be below the 15% threshold in multiple districts which would gift Biden 100% of those districts delegates?

Virginia has 11 congressional districts, I'd reckon that Sanders will probably make the 15% in almost all of them. (And maybe even all.) His range is likely to be 16-17% up to 31-32%.

https://twitter.com/VanityFair/status/1235007067573932033?s=20

CNN call AL for Biden, unable to call Mass., Oklahoma, Maine.

Not good for Warren if she can't carry her home state.

I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.

Biden being competitive in MA is a good sign for him as well.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

CNN call AL for Biden, unable to call Mass., Oklahoma, Maine.

Not good for Warren if she can't carry her home state.

Not good for Sanders if he isn't declared the immediate winner in Maine.

Unless California goes the other way to polls (ie Biden goes -10 rather than +10 overall) I cannot see Biden not winning the nomination.

The CNN map guy clearly has coronavirus or a bit of the old marching flu.

Andy_JS said:

I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.

Looks like the late Biden surge is real. The narrative so far is the Biden surge, and the problem for Sanders is he'll do well in late reporting states. CA has apparently massive mail-in votes. Votes have to post marked today and will be counted in 3 days. This may dilute his bounce.

Seventy seven years old!

FFS

Jonathan said:

Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

Trump is the youngest man in the race.

The Buttigieg and Klobuchar pull-out has clearly booted BIden right back into things.

There are three or four main things the Democrats should bear in mind, I think - a Coronavirus outbreak could boost both BIden and Sanders, but probably Sanders slightly more ; both Biden's capacity to generate enthusiasm and apparent slowness on the one hand, and Sanders' potential marmite appeal and refusal to ditch a socialist self-identification on the other hand, represent risks for democrats ; and low turnout stemming from the perception of a stitch-up against Sanders might be as much of a risk as Sanders' potential turn off to the South.

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

Youngest man left in this too. WTF.

It’s ridiculous.

Chameleon said:

Tim_B said:

Andy_JS said:

I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.

Looks like the late Biden surge is real. The narrative so far is the Biden surge, and the problem for Sanders is he'll do well in late reporting states. CA has apparently massive mail-in votes. Votes have to post marked today and will be counted in 3 days. This may dilute his bounce.

CA early voting is much lower than previous years.

Early may be. I don't have that information. As to mail in we don't know that yet.

Watching TV, Sanders and Biden are doing a lot of shaking hands at campaign events. There has to be a non-trivial risk that one of them catches somethng.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Tim_B said:

Jonathan said:

Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

Trump is the youngest man in the race.

Politics is a young man's game...

I shall practice kissing babies and lying to their parents immediately!

Chameleon said:

Is anyone offering odds on both Presidential candidates having to pull out because of illness?

Will Pence be picked again by Trump? (I have a very small sum on him as Next President...)

Biden at 24% in VT, while leading by 30% in VA is awful for Sanders. Implies a 5% additional Sanders to Biden swing on top of 538's already generous predictions.

rcs1000 said:

Watching TV, Sanders and Biden are doing a lot of shaking hands at campaign events. There has to be a non-trivial risk that one of them catches somethng.

I think it is nailed on unless something massively changes i.e Summer kills this dead, that one of the nominees catches it.

Jonathan said:

Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

But he looks 107.

Trump has lowered the bar on what people will tolerate in terms of incoherence and having man tits so it's all good homie.

Chameleon said:

Bloomberg seems to be keeping a decent amount of support.

My twitter feed is people arguing that is only in early voting and he's doing much worse in election day votes.

Tim_B said:

Jonathan said:

Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

Trump is the youngest man in the race.

Pete could run again in 2060 and still be younger than Sanders or Biden are today....

CarlottaVance said:

Tim_B said:

Jonathan said:

Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

Trump is the youngest man in the race.

Pete could run again in 2060 and still be younger than Sanders or Biden are today....

You're not wrong.

Fox News coverage is full of commercials for No Time to Die. As someone who was 10 when Dr No came out, has all the dvds. and who loves fellow Yorkshireman John Barry scores, I hear those 2 notes and I'm like Pavlov's dogs. I'm there immediately.

Sander's 35-40% strategy would work well in the UK. But in the US Dems need 52%+.

Early days, but the New York Times needle has moved to favour Biden to win Texas.