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SystemSystem Posts: 12,860
edited April 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

My assumption is that given the possibility that Newark has been on the cards for nearly a year that all the parties would have carried out preliminary work and have come to an assessment about their strategy. Ukip must have an idea of the terrain.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    edited April 2014
    If you apply the same swings to and from the parties as have happened in recent parliamentary by-elections (excluding Bradford West as an outlier) to the GE in Newark in 2010 you get the following percentages:

    Constituency . . . . . . . Con. Lab. UKIP
    Wythenshaw & Sale E. 42.8 33.5 18.2
    South Shields. . . . . . . 43.8 20.8 28.0
    Eastleigh. . . . . . . . . . 40.0 22.5 28.0
    Middlesbrough. . . . . . 41.4 36.9 11.9
    Croydon North. . . . . . 46.6 31.0 07.8
    Rotherham. . . . . . . . . 42.6 23.9 19.7
    Cardiff South & P. . . . 45.5 30.7 07.3
    Manchester Central . . 46.6 38.7 06.8
    Corby. . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.3 32.0 18.1
    Feltham & Heston. . . . 47.6 31.1 07.3

    In other words, the Conservative Party wins comfortably in each case. Even if you combine the biggest Conservative fall (-15.6% in Corby) with the biggest Labour increase (+16.4% in Manchester Central) you still only get Labour scraping ahead by a margin of 0.4%.

    In order for UKIP to win, there would have to be a net swing of 25% from Conservative to UKIP. The biggest UKIP increases in this parliament have been +24.2% in South Shields, +24.2% in Eastleigh, +15.9% in Rotherham, and 14.4% in Wythenshaw & Sale East; the Conservative fall was only 22% even in Bradford South.

    In other words, the only way the Conservative Party could lose if Labour and UKIP supporters were to combine themselves in unprecedently huge amounts of tactical voting for one or the other. I very much doubt that Labour supporters would want to vote UKIP just in order to defeat the Conservative candidate, or vice-versa.

    Therefore I am cautiously optimistic that the Conservative Party will hold the seat in the by-election.

    As an afterthought, the same swings would put the Lib Dems below 10% in almost all cases; we can safely assume that the Lib Dem candidate will come a poor 4th.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    If Farage had already declared for South Thanet this wouldnt be such an issue now.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

    I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,298
    Arguably for Labour the best result would be to win (aka bleedin' obvious) with UKIP second and Tories third, with the LD on about 10-12%.

    Won't happen, of course!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    foxinsoxuk said:

    We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

    I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

    The danger for UKIP is - as you suggest - that people vote against them at least as much as they vote for them.

    My Facebook feed - which includes someone fairly high up in UKIP, and no, I'm not talking about Richard Tyndall - regularly contains long anti-Kipper diatribes from people who aren't normally political. (It also contains quite a few pro-Kipper ones, I'd add.) The point is that if the people who are anti-UKIP vote tactically then they might really struggle to gain seats under FPTP.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    foxinsoxuk said:

    I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

    Of course they can win a seat under FPTP. They "won" several constituencies in the local elections last year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    OldKingCole said:

    Arguably for Labour the best result would be to win (aka bleedin' obvious) with UKIP second and Tories third, with the LD on about 10-12%.

    Won't happen, of course!

    The LibDems will lose their deposit in Newark.

    Approximately 20% of their vote (the NOTA share) will go to UKIP, the rest will split between Conservatives and Labour.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    foxinsoxuk said:

    We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

    I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

    As is entirely to be expected from such a negative party, the only impact UKIP will have is to prevent my generation voting on whether they want to be merged into a European superstate or not.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    Neil said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

    Of course they can win a seat under FPTP. They "won" several constituencies in the local elections last year.
    OGH (or 'dad', as I prefer to call him) thinks UKIP will win Eastleigh in 2015. I don't think they will, because I think the LibDems will successfully persuade a number of Conservatives to vote for them because (a) it's for the coalition, and (b) it's in the Conservative Party's interests for the Liberal Democrats to beat UKIP.

    I think isam is absolutely right that Thanet and the Kent seats, plus a couple in East Anglia are by far UKIP's best shots,
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Local elections are generally won on low turnouts, so more open to a small bloc getting out the vote.

    In Eastleigh they had the benefit of a poor Tory candidate, Labour nowhere in sight and a LibDem who had resigned in disgrace, yet could only gain 27% of the vote. The reason their performance was closer than elsewhere was the three way split. I think that unlikely to happen in Newark.
    Neil said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

    Of course they can win a seat under FPTP. They "won" several constituencies in the local elections last year.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    SeanT said:

    Just in case anyone missed it.

    G'day from the Timor Sea.

    According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

    I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

    I will refrain from gloating now,

    *gloats*

    PPP is a way of adjusting for the fact that people in poor countries pay less in rent than those in rich countries. It's a way of measuring effective incomes by country better than raw GDP per capita numbers. GDP at PPP does not mean China has a bigger economy than the US. It is cheap and lazy sensationalism by both the FT and you to claim that it does.

    Yes, China - with its 1.3 billion people - will become the biggest economy in the world in the next 15 years. But it is not a bigger economy right now.

    As an aside, private sector debt to GDP in China, which was just 50% or so in 2006, is now (when you include the shadow banking sector) around 250% of GDP. That's worse than Spain or Ireland was before their crises.

    Just warning ya'...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    Charles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

    I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

    As is entirely to be expected from such a negative party, the only impact UKIP will have is to prevent my generation voting on whether they want to be merged into a European superstate or not.
    We're not going to get merged into a European super-state. The Eurozone will - in all probability - continue to integrate, while those who are not EZ members (us, Sweden, Denmark, a few others) will probably get a slightly looser relationship.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @foxinsoxuk

    Just because they didnt win in Eastleigh doesnt mean they cant win anywhere under FPTP. I strongly agree with rcs1000 and isam that there are plenty of places that would be far more favourable for them. If you think it's impossible then there's free money in the UKIP to win no seats markets.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    All capitalist economies develop a business cycle. We are yet to see a proper recession in China, but it will happen sooner or later. When it does it will be a political earthquake, and with the US so dependent on Chinese money it will not be pretty there.

    Do what you like with your own investments, but it would be wise for our govt to have sorted out our deficit before that storm, so that we are not too affected.

    A China crash would make the Eurozone seem a safe haven, particularly as Club Med countries have mostly got themselves sorted. Unlike Hunchman I will not forecast when this happens, but it could be this year.
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Just in case anyone missed it.

    G'day from the Timor Sea.

    According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

    I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

    I will refrain from gloating now,

    *gloats*

    PPP is a way of adjusting for the fact that people in poor countries pay less in rent than those in rich countries. It's a way of measuring effective incomes by country better than raw GDP per capita numbers. GDP at PPP does not mean China has a bigger economy than the US. It is cheap and lazy sensationalism by both the FT and you to claim that it does.

    Yes, China - with its 1.3 billion people - will become the biggest economy in the world in the next 15 years. But it is not a bigger economy right now.

    As an aside, private sector debt to GDP in China, which was just 50% or so in 2006, is now (when you include the shadow banking sector) around 250% of GDP. That's worse than Spain or Ireland was before their crises.

    Just warning ya'...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @steve_hawkes: Nigel Farage expected to decide by lunchtime if he will run in Newark by election. We're in for a lively day
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    Just in case anyone missed it.

    G'day from the Timor Sea.

    According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

    I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

    I will refrain from gloating now,

    *gloats*

    There's a big difference between nominal rates and PPP. PPP is much lower because it takes into account the cost of living which is still very low in most of China.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    SeanT said:

    The increasing stupidity of your opinions closely correlates with the excess verbiage you employ to assert them.

    I supply data.

    You supply insults.

    Between now and the end of 2015, over $2trillion of 'wealth management products' (i.e. loans to companies outside the traditional banking sector) in China need to be rolled over. This is in addition to all the new borrowing Chinese companies need to do fund an economy where 47% of GDP is made up of fixed asset investment. It may all happen smoothly, it may not.

    Korea, on its way to being a $22,000 GDP per head country, had two major recessions where GDP fell 25%. And that was with an economy that was not as unbalanced or indebted as China's.

    Every time the Chinese government avoids clearing out the problem of malinvestment it makes the inevitable adjustment worse.

    You can cover your ears, and attempt to use data in a way it was never intended to be used if you like. But I am right, and you are wrong.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I agree UKIP no seats is a good bet for 2015 but I think better odds will come with the hype after the Euros.
    Neil said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    Just because they didnt win in Eastleigh doesnt mean they cant win anywhere under FPTP. I strongly agree with rcs1000 and isam that there are plenty of places that would be far more favourable for them. If you think it's impossible then there's free money in the UKIP to win no seats markets.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    2012 figures show the US economy to be about twice as large as China's in nominal terms:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

    I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

    As is entirely to be expected from such a negative party, the only impact UKIP will have is to prevent my generation voting on whether they want to be merged into a European superstate or not.
    We're not going to get merged into a European super-state. The Eurozone will - in all probability - continue to integrate, while those who are not EZ members (us, Sweden, Denmark, a few others) will probably get a slightly looser relationship.
    Oi! That was a carefully crafted piece of troll bait you've just dismantled
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I agree that China is likely to be the biggest in time, but it will not be a smooth ascent. China also has some major demographic problems on the way, with a population ageing very rapidly.
    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    All capitalist economies develop a business cycle. We are yet to see a proper recession in China, but it will happen sooner or later. When it does it will be a political earthquake, and with the US so dependent on Chinese money it will not be pretty there.

    Do what you like with your own investments, but it would be wise for our govt to have sorted out our deficit before that storm, so that we are not too affected.

    A China crash would make the Eurozone seem a safe haven, particularly as Club Med countries have mostly got themselves sorted. Unlike Hunchman I will not forecast when this happens, but it could be this year.

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    Just in case anyone missed it.

    G'day from the Timor Sea.

    According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

    I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

    I will refrain from gloating now,

    *gloats*

    PPP is a way of adjusting for the fact that people in poor countries pay less in rent than those in rich countries. It's a way of measuring effective incomes by country better than raw GDP per capita numbers. GDP at PPP does not mean China has a bigger economy than the US. It is cheap and lazy sensationalism by both the FT and you to claim that it does.

    Yes, China - with its 1.3 billion people - will become the biggest economy in the world in the next 15 years. But it is not a bigger economy right now.

    As an aside, private sector debt to GDP in China, which was just 50% or so in 2006, is now (when you include the shadow banking sector) around 250% of GDP. That's worse than Spain or Ireland was before their crises.

    Just warning ya'...
    America crashed several times as it rose to economic primacy, most particularly in 1929, of course. It didn't stop them dominating.

    Same goes for China. They have too much in their favour - vast population, incredible work ethic, high average IQ, fierce education system, continental sized economies of scale - not to predominate. But there will be mighty hiccups on the way.

    After them, the Indians. Maybe.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    The increasing stupidity of your opinions closely correlates with the excess verbiage you employ to assert them.

    I supply data.

    You supply insults.

    Between now and the end of 2015, over $2trillion of 'wealth management products' (i.e. loans to companies outside the traditional banking sector) in China need to be rolled over. This is in addition to all the new borrowing Chinese companies need to do fund an economy where 47% of GDP is made up of fixed asset investment. It may all happen smoothly, it may not.

    Korea, on its way to being a $22,000 GDP per head country, had two major recessions where GDP fell 25%. And that was with an economy that was not as unbalanced or indebted as China's.

    Every time the Chinese government avoids clearing out the problem of malinvestment it makes the inevitable adjustment worse.

    You can cover your ears, and attempt to use data in a way it was never intended to be used if you like. But I am right, and you are wrong.
    Like I said: verbiage. Tell us again how the Spanish hate the Catalans and want to throw them out.

    Just risible.
    Would you like to go back and actually quote me?

    Thought not.

    I passed on what the CEO of a Spanish company said to me.

    Instead, it's random, slightly dull, insults.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    foxinsoxuk said:

    I agree that China is likely to be the biggest in time, but it will not be a smooth ascent. China also has some major demographic problems on the way, with a population ageing very rapidly.

    Chinese working age population (in absolute numbers) peaks in 2017. For Japan, in was 1990.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

    Don't know about that. I think Cameron is more bothered about Scotland than Newark at the moment.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    China's working age population declined last year; not a good sign.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I'm guessing the free champagne is good quality stuff.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

    Bit of a self important braggart isn't he?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,748
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

    Is that in the Conservative Party rule book, or is Nigel Farage just trying to garner headlines?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    John Curtis on Radio 4.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage waiting for overnight polling advice on Newark from UKIP staff before deciding whether to stand
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "A plane passenger watched in horror as he filmed one of the jet's wings on fire as he and more than 90 others flew over the city of Perth in Australia.

    The flight had left Perth Airport and was heading towards Barrow Island when passengers spotted sparks flying from a left-side engine."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1251586/plane-on-fire-over-oz-city-caught-on-camera
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Intetresting that Ken Clarke is on Radio 4 in the 8.10am slot - his constituency is obviously next door to Newark and result in 2010 was almost identical. Good sign that he's on board.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Wonderful to wake up to a PB spat between Sean and Robert.

    Difficult to say who in the ascendancy though.

    Robert may just be edging it. Calling the insults of our international novelist and travel writer "slightly dull" is bold cut and thrust.

    Popcorn time.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @anntreneman: I love sheer oddity of Nigel Farage saying Dave will have to go if he wins Newark. (note the "if"). Then, I presume, Nigel rules over us!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited April 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

    Is that in the Conservative Party rule book, or is Nigel Farage just trying to garner headlines?
    Cameron is holding a trump card here.

    If Farage declares for Newark before the by election is called, Cameron can delay holding it until the autumn. This would either force Farage to reverse out, or it would prevent him declaring as a candidate - or at least weaken his campaign - in some of his better GE prospects.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @georgeeaton: Farage now claiming that Cameron would have to resign if he won in Newark. He'll look truly frit if he bottles it now.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    They say that giving the voters too much information about details of policies gives them more excuses to put them off voting for someone. Robert Jenrick seems to have the right idea:

    http://www.robertjenrick.com/
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,787
    Co-op incompetents:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27217198

    And nasty with it:
    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2616228/Co-Op-director-Stuart-Ramsay-fired-leaking-information-pay-deals-including-former-boss-Euan-Sutherlands-6-6m-package.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,787
    JohnLoony said:

    They say that giving the voters too much information about details of policies gives them more excuses to put them off voting for someone. Robert Jenrick seems to have the right idea:

    http://www.robertjenrick.com/

    You mean you haven't decoded the subliminal stenographic message embedded within?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,298
    edited April 2014
    If Cameron will have to resign if Farage wins in Newark what will The People's Nige have to do if stands and loses?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,368
    edited April 2014
    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first send mad. Nigel Farage seems to be on the Gods' B list this morning.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,368
    Bath Chronicle pictures.

    http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/pictures/Cheering-crowd-greets-Nigel-Farage-Bath/pictures-21030003-detail/pictures.html#12
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    I think Farage won't stand and that not standing would be the best decision from his point of view. If he lost it would completely deflate the UKIP bandwagon 11 months before the general election.

    UKIP choosing someone aged about 60 might be a good idea. The combined ages of the Tory and Labour candidates is 59. And the constituency profile is older than average.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    OldKingCole said:

    If Cameron will have to resign if Farage wins in Newark what will The People's Nige have to do if stands and loses?

    Go to the pub ?

  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    The Lib Dem history of by election victories shows difficulty in hanging onto the seat in the following GE.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Did College declare Sally Lunn as UKIP's candidate for Bath in the upcoming General Election?

    A sort of toned down tea party fruitcake would seem ideal for Bath.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Good news for the LDs: they probably won't lose their deposit this time. Local strength in the horseracing town of Southwell should guarantee that.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,368
    Sally from Bath has some nice buns...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Looking at the additional questions in yesterday's YouGov.

    10% think Mr Clegg is honest.
    13% think Mr Cameron is honest.
    16% think Mr Miliband is honest.

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8cm4ggnrez/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290414.pdf
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Southwell - the place where even the locals can't decide how to pronounce the name of the town, let alone visitors:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/content/articles/2005/08/24/southwell_suthell_feature.shtml
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,298
    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Little hard, I think to describe Clegg as a PPE clone. Social anthropology and various European Universities.

    Typical UKIP.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,787
    Off-topic: Star Wars news

    Thankfully they're abandoning the plots created in the post-episode VI series of books, and starting afresh. The books' plotlines were frankly, cr@p. "The emperor's dead!" "No he isn't, he's arisen!" "Now he's dead again!"

    http://www.polygon.com/2014/4/25/5653858/star-wars-expanded-universe-lucasfilm-story-group
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,313
    AndyJS said:

    I think Farage won't stand and that not standing would be the best decision from his point of view. If he lost it would completely deflate the UKIP bandwagon 11 months before the general election.

    UKIP choosing someone aged about 60 might be a good idea. The combined ages of the Tory and Labour candidates is 59. And the constituency profile is older than average.

    That would be from the youth wing of UKIP, then?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    I think Farage won't stand and that not standing would be the best decision from his point of view. If he lost it would completely deflate the UKIP bandwagon 11 months before the general election.

    UKIP choosing someone aged about 60 might be a good idea. The combined ages of the Tory and Labour candidates is 59. And the constituency profile is older than average.

    Their 2010 candidate is >70.

    http://newarkadvertiser.co.uk/news/specialreports/election2010/newark.asp
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,368
    OldKingCole said:

    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Little hard, I think to describe Clegg as a PPE clone. Social anthropology and various European Universities.

    Typical UKIP.
    Students against UKIP/Thatcher/Poll Tax/etc group had a Farage is a Banker sign - not part of the PPE wunch.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    If Farage stands in Newark, will he/should he resign his MEP seat?
  • JamesMJamesM Posts: 221
    edited April 2014
    Good morning all. While the 'will he, won't he' discussion about Farage will be fascinating this morning, I am also interested in views on when the Conservatives should and will call the by-election. My initial reaction is that they should go for as soon as possible. While this is not going to be election day on 22nd May, if they can get it a week or two after this may be as beneficial as can be. Assuming UKIP get a win or strong 2nd on 22nd May they will be on a high admittedly, but this result is already slightly factored in by the Conservatives. Might as well get any potentially further bad news out of the way earlier.

    If the Conservatives win on the flipside in Newark (which I think very possible, but with no local knowledge on my part) it also helps deflate UKIP earlier in 2014. Alongside this an early by-election would challenge UKIP to pump the resources in to the seat when also fighting the Euros for much of the campaign, and if Farage stands he is going to be stretched on the local and national campaigns, whilst opening himself up to charges of not being fully committed to Newark by standing to be a MEP too. Views?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'd guess the majority of voters in the by-election will be over 55.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Financier said:

    If Farage stands in Newark, will he/should he resign his MEP seat?

    Only if he wins the by-election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @oflynndirector: Nigel Farage will announce his decision re Newark just after 8am on BBC Breakfast. Do tune in.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    On R4 about 7.15.am, John Curtice was doubtful that UKIP would win Newark, but thought it was possible that that UKIP could split the right/centre vote enough to allow Labour to come through the middle.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    Southwell is usually pronounced "Suthell" in the context of the race course, but for the town itself it's a 50/50 split.

    Only in Britain could you have a situation where the locals don't know how to pronounce the name of their own town:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/content/image_galleries/southwell_or_suthell_gallery.shtml?3
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Scott_P said:

    @oflynndirector: Nigel Farage will announce his decision re Newark just after 8am on BBC Breakfast. Do tune in.

    R4 reporting that Farage claims ih he wins "Cameron should resign". What is it with the "Cameron should resign" hysterics?

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    It's quite something to see when Lab/Lib/Con supporters on PB and in the MSM urge Farage to stand in Newark: all hoping to see him come unstuck by coming in second and derailing the UKIP advance.

    This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    more exciting than PMQs, whether Nigel will or will not stand
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Was it a full house? How did the audience react? Pro/anti?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    AndyJS said:

    Financier said:

    If Farage stands in Newark, will he/should he resign his MEP seat?

    Only if he wins the by-election.
    Whilst the by-election will be after the EU vote, if he does stand and with 2015 looming (in 6-9 months after Newark), it could be argued that he does not have enough time to focus on being a MEP and so is purposely neglecting his constituents and their representation in Brussels.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Farage not standing
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    He's frit.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Sensible decision from Farage.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Frit Farage
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Patrick Mercer must be swearing and throwing things round his kitchen at Farage's decision
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,353
    Good morning, everyone.

    Do we know who is standing for UKIP?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yesterday's Newsnight, starring Barbara Roche:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b042l7zb
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Do we know who is standing for UKIP?

    Someone other than Nigel Farage.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:



    This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

    …and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

    Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    The next few Euro polls will be interesting. Will the media turn on Frit Farage and burst the protest bubble.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    SeanT said:

    There. Stupid. Now he looks wimpy and daft.

    Why did he ever let speculation arise?

    Tish tish. A bad unforced error.

    Agree, shows lack of tactical nous - he should have pre-empted such speculation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,865
    Re: Newark. I was impressed by the 'crossed every t, dotted every i' Tory candidate. He's started a business, been a managing director at Christies, qualified as a solicitor, had a law career, is immaculately groomed, handsome guy, got the wife and two kids etc.

    He's only 31/ 32 years old. I don't know how he's done it. I'm the same age and haven't achieved a quarter of that. It does make me a bit suspicious. Has he really done all that?

    Is part of that envy and jealousy? Absolutely. It makes me feel a bit inadequate. I just don't know how some people fit all this stuff into their lives, and at such a young age. It's not normal.

    I never will, and if I did, God knows how I'd explain away my decidedly pedestrian CV in industry to a parliamentary selection panel.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This is the 1989 Canadian by-election which Farage is so interested in:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaver_River_(electoral_district)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,353
    Happy birthday, Mr. K. Ramses II also lived more than 80 years. It was a tragedy when he died because all his sons had already snuffed it and nobody could remember how coronations were meant to go...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,298
    Who now? Diane James? Paul Nuttall? Someone who doesn't get elected as an MEP?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Farage saying "let's pick a candidate who's local."

    The (local) Tories were a lot faster at shutting down speculation over Boris.

    The Tories should move the writ pronto.......
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,353
    Mr. Royale, there's always someone better. If you *really* want to feel inadequate, compare yourself to Alexander the Great.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    anotherDave said:

    MikeK said:



    This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

    …and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

    Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.
    Indeed, happy birthday Mr K. Congratulations on reaching such a milestone.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,368
    Farage is a Newark...anagram.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,865
    PS. I think Newark for Farage is a trap. He should not stand.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ken Clarke sounding complacent as usual.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Easterross said:

    The next few Euro polls will be interesting. Will the media turn on Frit Farage and burst the protest bubble.

    Turn on?

    If negative media coverage could burst UKIP's bubble, you wouldn't be talking about a UKIP bubble.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Chicken Farage. ..
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Taking 12 hours to take a decision on this isn't that bad. And it got some more free publicity for UKIP. It won't do them any harm at all.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Easterross said:

    Patrick Mercer must be swearing and throwing things round his kitchen at Farage's decision

    Couldn't happen to a nicer chap......

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Show what a one man band the Kippers are.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TGOHF said:

    Show what a one man band the Kippers are.

    Diane James did rather well in Eastleigh.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,466
    Casino_Royale said:

    Re: Newark. I was impressed by the 'crossed every t, dotted every i' Tory candidate. He's started a business, been a managing director at Christies, qualified as a solicitor, had a law career, is immaculately groomed, handsome guy, got the wife and two kids etc.

    He's only 31/ 32 years old. I don't know how he's done it. I'm the same age and haven't achieved a quarter of that. It does make me a bit suspicious. Has he really done all that?

    Is part of that envy and jealousy? Absolutely. It makes me feel a bit inadequate. I just don't know how some people fit all this stuff into their lives, and at such a young age. It's not normal.

    I never will, and if I did, God knows how I'd explain away my decidedly pedestrian CV in industry to a parliamentary selection panel.

    Maybe you're a bit lazy - like me ;)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,353
    I wonder how Lib Dems and Labour (both locally and in leadership terms) will approach the by-election. A UKIP win would harm the blues, but would also mean that the purples would be taken more seriously and perhaps have better prospects at the General Election. UKIP isn't only a problem for the Conservatives. They've long outpolled the Lib Dems, they're leading the European election forecasts and appear more attractive to WWC sorts than Ed Miliband (perhaps unsurprisingly).

    If the left start feeding the hatchling that's nipping at Conservatives heels they may find it'll grow into a dragon sooner than they expect.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,382
    Nigel Farage made the right descision but it won't stop the Tories and media saying he's crap and frit.

    Nigel Farage = Luca Badoer
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    In order to win Newark, UKIP would probably need a fairly big win in the Euros to keep the momentum going.
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