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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they

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    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    edited April 2014
    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barbara Roche on Newsnight yesterday seemed to have a strange definition of the word "racist". As far as I know, Romanians aren't a different race to British people.

    It's no stranger than Nigel Farage's definition of race.

    Good God man! Why don't you just come out and say things?!

    Go on then, what is Nigel Farage's definition of race?

    As previously discussed, Farage claimed he was the victim of anti-English racism in Scotland. If Roche is wrong, so is he - as you said when we debated it before.

    Oh yeah, he was wrong to say that. Anyone who says people of the same race can be racist towards each other is wrong, its nonsense

    The difference is that Farage's was an off the cuff remark, while Roche and the people that she is in cahoots with, have formed a policy unit on the back of it
    *coughs* words evolve.
    Have you read 1984?
    Yes, but I'm also aware of language shifting?
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    isam said:

    Bet bet I never had

    4/6 UKIP to outpoll the Tories in the Euros...now 2/11

    I seriously considered £6000 to win £4000, and while I dithered the price went.

    The UKIP-Lab-Con tricast now 4/5, hope someone got on, again I didnt


    Almost time to let the UKIP bandwagon roll on and concentrate fire on the left, with both eyes on 2015.
    'Swivelling' ones presumably.

    Yes , yes. Swivelling and reddened.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,311
    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    I'd reckon a disproportionate number those voters to be nailed on Guardian reading urban types who live in the sort of areas UKIP would never have have a hope in hell.

    Newspaper readership/class/income/VI breakdown for the 32% ?
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,679
    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    The other two thirds are going to vote for it....
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    The figure for do not would be more revealing, has the campaign against UKIP hardened views on them either way?

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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited April 2014
    isam said:

    Actually I disagree, but even if I agreed 7/4 is still a massive bet

    People said the same for a year about the UKIP/Con Euro match

    At the G.E., the LDs will probably be between 10% and 15%, with a median of 12.5%; a very normal distribution. UKIP could be anywhere from 5% to 20%(+!), with a lower median of say 10%, and a long-tailed distribution

    So LD's should be fav in a match bet, but UKIP have got a greater chance of most votes (though 33/1 isn't very tempting, and 100/1 for the LDs is missing a few zeroes).

    7/4 is a touch big but I'd still have the LDs fav.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    PMQs:

    Stewart Jackson: "The Peterborough effect is back."
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,189
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    I'd reckon a disproportionate number those voters to be nailed on Guardian reading urban types who live in the sort of areas UKIP would never have have a hope in hell.

    Newspaper readership/class/income/VI breakdown for the 32% ?

    Given the size of the Grauniad's readership that's quite a claim!

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,311
    isam said:

    Lads are pick'em most votes in Next GE

    Evs Lab
    Evs Con
    UKIP 33s
    LD 100

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes

    You can get 7/4 UKIP to bt LDs w WH.. surely value???

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/match-bet

    Combining Conservative Most Votes with Labour Most seats is THE bet as identified by Nabavi here a while back.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    I'd reckon a disproportionate number those voters to be nailed on Guardian reading urban types who live in the sort of areas UKIP would never have have a hope in hell.

    Newspaper readership/class/income/VI breakdown for the 32% ?
    So two-thirds think UKIP is hunky-dory.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Actually I disagree, but even if I agreed 7/4 is still a massive bet

    People said the same for a year about the UKIP/Con Euro match

    At the G.E., the LDs will probably be between 10% and 15%, with a median of 12.5%; a very normal distribution. UKIP could be anywhere from 5% to 20%(+!), with a lower median of say 10%, and a long-tailed distribution

    So LD's should be fav in a match bet, but UKIP have got a greater chance of most votes (though 33/1 isn't very tempting, and 100/1 for the LDs is missing a few zeroes).

    7/4 is a touch big but I'd still have the LDs fav.
    The 33s and 100s are absolutely ridiculous, I wouldn't back them at 330s and 1000s

    I understand the distributions but wasn't basing my bet on the 33s and 100s anyway.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    I'd reckon a disproportionate number those voters to be nailed on Guardian reading urban types who live in the sort of areas UKIP would never have have a hope in hell.

    Newspaper readership/class/income/VI breakdown for the 32% ?
    So two-thirds think UKIP is hunky-dory.
    That's what's interesting, what's the isn't vote, and what's the don't know/no opinion vote?
    There's the rub
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Lads are pick'em most votes in Next GE

    Evs Lab
    Evs Con
    UKIP 33s
    LD 100

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes

    You can get 7/4 UKIP to bt LDs w WH.. surely value???

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/match-bet

    Combining Conservative Most Votes with Labour Most seats is THE bet as identified by Nabavi here a while back.
    Yeah, will likely turn out that way although as of right now I have Labour fractionally ahead. 35/34 perhaps, but this will shift.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    Would be interesting to know the numbers for 'don't know' - as it stands, 68% do not believe UKIP to be racist. I think they would be happy with that.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    I'd reckon a disproportionate number those voters to be nailed on Guardian reading urban types who live in the sort of areas UKIP would never have have a hope in hell.

    Newspaper readership/class/income/VI breakdown for the 32% ?
    So two-thirds think UKIP is hunky-dory.
    That's what's interesting, what's the isn't vote, and what's the don't know/no opinion vote?
    There's the rub
    I am given to understand that 40% of respondents said UKIP isn't racist and 29% don't know whether it is or not (presumably there is a rounding error in there somewhere)
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Of course it's possible to be in favour of that, and to make a rational argument for it.
    I'm not. I'm after corporate tax avoidance and shrinking the state to reduce tax pressure on lower earners at a far greater effective percentage than higher earners.

    I accept that there's more than one way of improving the living standards of the low-paid, and that you can do so without flattening the income distribution - anything that could be done to reduce the cost of housing would go a long way to improving living standards in the UK, for another example.

    I would just like to add two points.

    1. I think that capitalism as a system would work better if more people can participate on a more equal footing. Markets become distorted if most people are too poor to take part.

    2. It would be nice if people could discuss these various approaches without the use of moronic soundbites. I can understand why politicians use them - they are rarely given the time to develop a proper argument, and they need to provide media organisations with a short excerpt for a news clip or a newspaper headline - but here we are on the internet without such limitations, so it's just a bit sad to see people resorting to them.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,128

    Scott_P said:

    @carldinnen: BREAKING: ComRes poll for ITV News reveals that one third of the British public (32%) think UKIP is a racist party.

    The other two thirds are going to vote for it....
    What proportion of the 32% actually care?

    On PMQs I agree it seems irrelevant in the pre-Euro forment but yet again Miliband is trounced - he really has got nothing to say about the economy and everyone knows why.
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    A third police constable had been dismissed for gross misconduct in relation to the "Plebgate" incident. Little does it help Andrew Mitchell, however.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805
    Another Plod sacked over Plebgate for gross misconduct:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27222171

    Three down, how many more to come?

    So many posters on here got this very, very wrong.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2014
    This is NOT a typo:

    ComRes, Euro poll:

    UKIP 38%
    Lab 27%
    Con 18%
    LD 8%
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,311
    edited April 2014

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Lads are pick'em most votes in Next GE

    Evs Lab
    Evs Con
    UKIP 33s
    LD 100

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes

    You can get 7/4 UKIP to bt LDs w WH.. surely value???

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/match-bet

    Combining Conservative Most Votes with Labour Most seats is THE bet as identified by Nabavi here a while back.
    Yeah, will likely turn out that way although as of right now I have Labour fractionally ahead. 35/34 perhaps, but this will shift.
    You need to weigh up the competing facts that

    a) Ed Miliband looks as if he would be better suited to mending your PC than running the country vs

    b) The Anti-Conservative looks as if it will be more coordinated than GE2010 at GE2015 (Lib Dems will have a record lumpiness in their vote).

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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Perhaps some of the 32% who think UKIP is racist think 'racist' is no longer a pejorative term....
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited April 2014

    Another Plod sacked over Plebgate for gross misconduct:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27222171

    Three down, how many more to come?

    So many posters on here got this very, very wrong.

    These dismissals are, in principle, entirely consistent with PC Rowland's account of the incident. That is why there are two contested actions for defamation in the Queen's Bench list. You should carefully read the Crown Prosecution Service's statement, dated 26 November 2013.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    You need to weigh up the competing facts that

    a) Ed Miliband looks as if he would be better suited to mending your PC than running the country vs

    b) The Anti-Conservative looks as if it will be more coordinated than GE2010 at GE2015 (Lib Dems will have a record lumpiness in their vote).

    Dunno about you, but I wouldn't let Ed Miliband anywhere near my PC. If I wanted it fixed, I'd want someone practical, not someone whose views and experience are entirely based on lefty academic abstractions unrelated to the real world.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: Speculation rife in Westminster that the Chief Clerk is going because he is fed up with Bercow and his style
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    AndyJS said:

    This is NOT a typo:

    ComRes, Euro poll:

    UKIP 38%
    Lab 27%
    Con 18%
    LD 8%

    Wow -keep up the smearing please ;-)
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,568
    Paddypower now offering Ukip to get more than 23 euro seats at 5/6 . (originally set bar at over 24) .seems at odds with recent poll moves? Is UKIP still facing trouble with that 'an independence from Europe' candidate?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Speculation rife in Westminster that the Chief Clerk is going because he is fed up with Bercow and his style

    Is that Robert Rogers? My brother bought me a book by him as a birthday present a couple of years ago when he was working in the Commons as a website consultant.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,311

    Paddypower now offering Ukip to get more than 23 euro seats at 5/6 . (originally set bar at over 24) .seems at odds with recent poll moves? Is UKIP still facing trouble with that 'an independence from Europe' candidate?

    With polling like this it won't matter.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,805

    Another Plod sacked over Plebgate for gross misconduct:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27222171

    Three down, how many more to come?

    So many posters on here got this very, very wrong.

    These dismissals are, in principle, entirely consistent with PC Rowland's account of the incident. That is why there are two contested actions for defamation in the Queen's Bench list. You should carefully read the Crown Prosecution Service's statement, dated 26 November 2013.
    I've read it thanks.

    But three police officer sacked for misconduct.

    Enough said.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    isam said:

    isam said:

    corporeal said:

    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barbara Roche on Newsnight yesterday seemed to have a strange definition of the word "racist". As far as I know, Romanians aren't a different race to British people.

    It's no stranger than Nigel Farage's definition of race.

    This should be media training in how not to deal with UKIP
    Poor UKIP, even the BNP are attacking them in their election broadcast.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am2-fVIkf8I
    'the difference is that UKIP stand up for British people of all hues...'
    ... who don't like dem foreigners.
    You are Barbara Roche and I claim my 5 Euros
    'Euros' bah humbug - a true Englishman would ask for nothing less than pounds sterling. ; )
    Pre-decimalisation of course, though a hard core Kipper would expect to be paid in sovereigns.
    Guineas, naturally
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