politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

My assumption is that given the possibility that Newark has been on the cards for nearly a year that all the parties would have carried out preliminary work and have come to an assessment about their strategy. Ukip must have an idea of the terrain.

Read the full story here

JohnLoony

If you apply the same swings to and from the parties as have happened in recent parliamentary by-elections (excluding Bradford West as an outlier) to the GE in Newark in 2010 you get the following percentages:

Constituency . . . . . . . Con. Lab. UKIP
Wythenshaw & Sale E. 42.8 33.5 18.2
South Shields. . . . . . . 43.8 20.8 28.0
Eastleigh. . . . . . . . . . 40.0 22.5 28.0
Middlesbrough. . . . . . 41.4 36.9 11.9
Croydon North. . . . . . 46.6 31.0 07.8
Rotherham. . . . . . . . . 42.6 23.9 19.7
Cardiff South & P. . . . 45.5 30.7 07.3
Manchester Central . . 46.6 38.7 06.8
Corby. . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.3 32.0 18.1
Feltham & Heston. . . . 47.6 31.1 07.3

In other words, the Conservative Party wins comfortably in each case. Even if you combine the biggest Conservative fall (-15.6% in Corby) with the biggest Labour increase (+16.4% in Manchester Central) you still only get Labour scraping ahead by a margin of 0.4%.

In order for UKIP to win, there would have to be a net swing of 25% from Conservative to UKIP. The biggest UKIP increases in this parliament have been +24.2% in South Shields, +24.2% in Eastleigh, +15.9% in Rotherham, and 14.4% in Wythenshaw & Sale East; the Conservative fall was only 22% even in Bradford South.

In other words, the only way the Conservative Party could lose if Labour and UKIP supporters were to combine themselves in unprecedently huge amounts of tactical voting for one or the other. I very much doubt that Labour supporters would want to vote UKIP just in order to defeat the Conservative candidate, or vice-versa.

Therefore I am cautiously optimistic that the Conservative Party will hold the seat in the by-election.

As an afterthought, the same swings would put the Lib Dems below 10% in almost all cases; we can safely assume that the Lib Dem candidate will come a poor 4th.

Neil

If Farage had already declared for South Thanet this wouldnt be such an issue now.

foxinsoxuk

We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

OldKingCole

Arguably for Labour the best result would be to win (aka bleedin' obvious) with UKIP second and Tories third, with the LD on about 10-12%.

Won't happen, of course!

rcs1000

foxinsoxuk said:

We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

The danger for UKIP is - as you suggest - that people vote against them at least as much as they vote for them.

My Facebook feed - which includes someone fairly high up in UKIP, and no, I'm not talking about Richard Tyndall - regularly contains long anti-Kipper diatribes from people who aren't normally political. (It also contains quite a few pro-Kipper ones, I'd add.) The point is that if the people who are anti-UKIP vote tactically then they might really struggle to gain seats under FPTP.

Neil

foxinsoxuk said:

I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

Of course they can win a seat under FPTP. They "won" several constituencies in the local elections last year.

rcs1000

OldKingCole said:

Arguably for Labour the best result would be to win (aka bleedin' obvious) with UKIP second and Tories third, with the LD on about 10-12%.

Won't happen, of course!

The LibDems will lose their deposit in Newark.

Approximately 20% of their vote (the NOTA share) will go to UKIP, the rest will split between Conservatives and Labour.

Charles

foxinsoxuk said:

We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

As is entirely to be expected from such a negative party, the only impact UKIP will have is to prevent my generation voting on whether they want to be merged into a European superstate or not.

rcs1000

Neil said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

Of course they can win a seat under FPTP. They "won" several constituencies in the local elections last year.

OGH (or 'dad', as I prefer to call him) thinks UKIP will win Eastleigh in 2015. I don't think they will, because I think the LibDems will successfully persuade a number of Conservatives to vote for them because (a) it's for the coalition, and (b) it's in the Conservative Party's interests for the Liberal Democrats to beat UKIP.

I think isam is absolutely right that Thanet and the Kent seats, plus a couple in East Anglia are by far UKIP's best shots,

foxinsoxuk

Local elections are generally won on low turnouts, so more open to a small bloc getting out the vote.

In Eastleigh they had the benefit of a poor Tory candidate, Labour nowhere in sight and a LibDem who had resigned in disgrace, yet could only gain 27% of the vote. The reason their performance was closer than elsewhere was the three way split. I think that unlikely to happen in Newark.

Neil said:

foxinsoxuk said:

I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

Of course they can win a seat under FPTP. They "won" several constituencies in the local elections last year.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

Just in case anyone missed it.

G'day from the Timor Sea.

According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

I will refrain from gloating now,

*gloats*

PPP is a way of adjusting for the fact that people in poor countries pay less in rent than those in rich countries. It's a way of measuring effective incomes by country better than raw GDP per capita numbers. GDP at PPP does not mean China has a bigger economy than the US. It is cheap and lazy sensationalism by both the FT and you to claim that it does.

Yes, China - with its 1.3 billion people - will become the biggest economy in the world in the next 15 years. But it is not a bigger economy right now.

As an aside, private sector debt to GDP in China, which was just 50% or so in 2006, is now (when you include the shadow banking sector) around 250% of GDP. That's worse than Spain or Ireland was before their crises.

Just warning ya'...

rcs1000

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

As is entirely to be expected from such a negative party, the only impact UKIP will have is to prevent my generation voting on whether they want to be merged into a European superstate or not.

We're not going to get merged into a European super-state. The Eurozone will - in all probability - continue to integrate, while those who are not EZ members (us, Sweden, Denmark, a few others) will probably get a slightly looser relationship.

Neil

@foxinsoxuk

Just because they didnt win in Eastleigh doesnt mean they cant win anywhere under FPTP. I strongly agree with rcs1000 and isam that there are plenty of places that would be far more favourable for them. If you think it's impossible then there's free money in the UKIP to win no seats markets.

foxinsoxuk

All capitalist economies develop a business cycle. We are yet to see a proper recession in China, but it will happen sooner or later. When it does it will be a political earthquake, and with the US so dependent on Chinese money it will not be pretty there.

Do what you like with your own investments, but it would be wise for our govt to have sorted out our deficit before that storm, so that we are not too affected.

A China crash would make the Eurozone seem a safe haven, particularly as Club Med countries have mostly got themselves sorted. Unlike Hunchman I will not forecast when this happens, but it could be this year.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Just in case anyone missed it.

G'day from the Timor Sea.

According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

I will refrain from gloating now,

*gloats*

PPP is a way of adjusting for the fact that people in poor countries pay less in rent than those in rich countries. It's a way of measuring effective incomes by country better than raw GDP per capita numbers. GDP at PPP does not mean China has a bigger economy than the US. It is cheap and lazy sensationalism by both the FT and you to claim that it does.

Yes, China - with its 1.3 billion people - will become the biggest economy in the world in the next 15 years. But it is not a bigger economy right now.

As an aside, private sector debt to GDP in China, which was just 50% or so in 2006, is now (when you include the shadow banking sector) around 250% of GDP. That's worse than Spain or Ireland was before their crises.

Just warning ya'...

Scott_P

@steve_hawkes: Nigel Farage expected to decide by lunchtime if he will run in Newark by election. We're in for a lively day

AndyJS

SeanT said:

Just in case anyone missed it.

G'day from the Timor Sea.

According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

I will refrain from gloating now,

*gloats*

There's a big difference between nominal rates and PPP. PPP is much lower because it takes into account the cost of living which is still very low in most of China.

rcs1000

SeanT said:

The increasing stupidity of your opinions closely correlates with the excess verbiage you employ to assert them.

I supply data.

You supply insults.

Between now and the end of 2015, over $2trillion of 'wealth management products' (i.e. loans to companies outside the traditional banking sector) in China need to be rolled over. This is in addition to all the new borrowing Chinese companies need to do fund an economy where 47% of GDP is made up of fixed asset investment. It may all happen smoothly, it may not.

Korea, on its way to being a $22,000 GDP per head country, had two major recessions where GDP fell 25%. And that was with an economy that was not as unbalanced or indebted as China's.

Every time the Chinese government avoids clearing out the problem of malinvestment it makes the inevitable adjustment worse.

You can cover your ears, and attempt to use data in a way it was never intended to be used if you like. But I am right, and you are wrong.

foxinsoxuk

I agree UKIP no seats is a good bet for 2015 but I think better odds will come with the hype after the Euros.

Neil said:

@foxinsoxuk

Just because they didnt win in Eastleigh doesnt mean they cant win anywhere under FPTP. I strongly agree with rcs1000 and isam that there are plenty of places that would be far more favourable for them. If you think it's impossible then there's free money in the UKIP to win no seats markets.

AndyJS

2012 figures show the US economy to be about twice as large as China's in nominal terms:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Charles

rcs1000 said:

Charles said:

foxinsoxuk said:

We shall soon see if Farage believes his own hype or whether he is a saloon bar braggart.

I think the problem for UKIP is that while they are popular with a certain set, they are toxic to a much bigger section of the population. I do not think they can win a seat under FPTP.

As is entirely to be expected from such a negative party, the only impact UKIP will have is to prevent my generation voting on whether they want to be merged into a European superstate or not.

We're not going to get merged into a European super-state. The Eurozone will - in all probability - continue to integrate, while those who are not EZ members (us, Sweden, Denmark, a few others) will probably get a slightly looser relationship.

Oi! That was a carefully crafted piece of troll bait you've just dismantled

foxinsoxuk

I agree that China is likely to be the biggest in time, but it will not be a smooth ascent. China also has some major demographic problems on the way, with a population ageing very rapidly.

SeanT said:

foxinsoxuk said:

All capitalist economies develop a business cycle. We are yet to see a proper recession in China, but it will happen sooner or later. When it does it will be a political earthquake, and with the US so dependent on Chinese money it will not be pretty there.

Do what you like with your own investments, but it would be wise for our govt to have sorted out our deficit before that storm, so that we are not too affected.

A China crash would make the Eurozone seem a safe haven, particularly as Club Med countries have mostly got themselves sorted. Unlike Hunchman I will not forecast when this happens, but it could be this year.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Just in case anyone missed it.

G'day from the Timor Sea.

According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

I will refrain from gloating now,

*gloats*

PPP is a way of adjusting for the fact that people in poor countries pay less in rent than those in rich countries. It's a way of measuring effective incomes by country better than raw GDP per capita numbers. GDP at PPP does not mean China has a bigger economy than the US. It is cheap and lazy sensationalism by both the FT and you to claim that it does.

Yes, China - with its 1.3 billion people - will become the biggest economy in the world in the next 15 years. But it is not a bigger economy right now.

As an aside, private sector debt to GDP in China, which was just 50% or so in 2006, is now (when you include the shadow banking sector) around 250% of GDP. That's worse than Spain or Ireland was before their crises.

Just warning ya'...

America crashed several times as it rose to economic primacy, most particularly in 1929, of course. It didn't stop them dominating.

Same goes for China. They have too much in their favour - vast population, incredible work ethic, high average IQ, fierce education system, continental sized economies of scale - not to predominate. But there will be mighty hiccups on the way.

After them, the Indians. Maybe.

Scott_P

@BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

rcs1000

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

The increasing stupidity of your opinions closely correlates with the excess verbiage you employ to assert them.

I supply data.

You supply insults.

Between now and the end of 2015, over $2trillion of 'wealth management products' (i.e. loans to companies outside the traditional banking sector) in China need to be rolled over. This is in addition to all the new borrowing Chinese companies need to do fund an economy where 47% of GDP is made up of fixed asset investment. It may all happen smoothly, it may not.

Korea, on its way to being a $22,000 GDP per head country, had two major recessions where GDP fell 25%. And that was with an economy that was not as unbalanced or indebted as China's.

Every time the Chinese government avoids clearing out the problem of malinvestment it makes the inevitable adjustment worse.

You can cover your ears, and attempt to use data in a way it was never intended to be used if you like. But I am right, and you are wrong.

Like I said: verbiage. Tell us again how the Spanish hate the Catalans and want to throw them out.

Just risible.

Would you like to go back and actually quote me?

Thought not.

I passed on what the CEO of a Spanish company said to me.

Instead, it's random, slightly dull, insults.

rcs1000

foxinsoxuk said:

I agree that China is likely to be the biggest in time, but it will not be a smooth ascent. China also has some major demographic problems on the way, with a population ageing very rapidly.

Chinese working age population (in absolute numbers) peaks in 2017. For Japan, in was 1990.

AndyJS

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

Don't know about that. I think Cameron is more bothered about Scotland than Newark at the moment.

AndyJS

China's working age population declined last year; not a good sign.

Neil

I'm guessing the free champagne is good quality stuff.

Charles

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

Bit of a self important braggart isn't he?

rcs1000

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

Is that in the Conservative Party rule book, or is Nigel Farage just trying to garner headlines?

AndyJS

John Curtis on Radio 4.

Scott_P

@BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage waiting for overnight polling advice on Newark from UKIP staff before deciding whether to stand

AndyJS

O/T:

"A plane passenger watched in horror as he filmed one of the jet's wings on fire as he and more than 90 others flew over the city of Perth in Australia.

The flight had left Perth Airport and was heading towards Barrow Island when passengers spotted sparks flying from a left-side engine."

http://news.sky.com/story/1251586/plane-on-fire-over-oz-city-caught-on-camera

Millsy

Intetresting that Ken Clarke is on Radio 4 in the 8.10am slot - his constituency is obviously next door to Newark and result in 2010 was almost identical. Good sign that he's on board.

AveryLP

Wonderful to wake up to a PB spat between Sean and Robert.

Difficult to say who in the ascendancy though.

Robert may just be edging it. Calling the insults of our international novelist and travel writer "slightly dull" is bold cut and thrust.

Popcorn time.

Scott_P

@anntreneman: I love sheer oddity of Nigel Farage saying Dave will have to go if he wins Newark. (note the "if"). Then, I presume, Nigel rules over us!

AveryLP

rcs1000 said:

Scott_P said:

@BBCNormanS: Nigel Farage tells me if he stood and won in Newark - David Cameron wd have to resign

Is that in the Conservative Party rule book, or is Nigel Farage just trying to garner headlines?

Cameron is holding a trump card here.

If Farage declares for Newark before the by election is called, Cameron can delay holding it until the autumn. This would either force Farage to reverse out, or it would prevent him declaring as a candidate - or at least weaken his campaign - in some of his better GE prospects.

Scott_P

@georgeeaton: Farage now claiming that Cameron would have to resign if he won in Newark. He'll look truly frit if he bottles it now.

JohnLoony

They say that giving the voters too much information about details of policies gives them more excuses to put them off voting for someone. Robert Jenrick seems to have the right idea:

http://www.robertjenrick.com/

JosiasJessop

Co-op incompetents:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27217198

And nasty with it:
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2616228/Co-Op-director-Stuart-Ramsay-fired-leaking-information-pay-deals-including-former-boss-Euan-Sutherlands-6-6m-package.html

JosiasJessop

JohnLoony said:

They say that giving the voters too much information about details of policies gives them more excuses to put them off voting for someone. Robert Jenrick seems to have the right idea:

http://www.robertjenrick.com/

You mean you haven't decoded the subliminal stenographic message embedded within?

OldKingCole

If Cameron will have to resign if Farage wins in Newark what will The People's Nige have to do if stands and loses?

dr_spyn

UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

AlastairMeeks

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first send mad. Nigel Farage seems to be on the Gods' B list this morning.

dr_spyn

Bath Chronicle pictures.

http://www.bathchronicle.co.uk/pictures/Cheering-crowd-greets-Nigel-Farage-Bath/pictures-21030003-detail/pictures.html#12

AndyJS

I think Farage won't stand and that not standing would be the best decision from his point of view. If he lost it would completely deflate the UKIP bandwagon 11 months before the general election.

UKIP choosing someone aged about 60 might be a good idea. The combined ages of the Tory and Labour candidates is 59. And the constituency profile is older than average.

TGOHF

OldKingCole said:

If Cameron will have to resign if Farage wins in Newark what will The People's Nige have to do if stands and loses?

Go to the pub ?

rogerh

The Lib Dem history of by election victories shows difficulty in hanging onto the seat in the following GE.

AveryLP

dr_spyn said:

UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

Did College declare Sally Lunn as UKIP's candidate for Bath in the upcoming General Election?

A sort of toned down tea party fruitcake would seem ideal for Bath.

AndyJS

Good news for the LDs: they probably won't lose their deposit this time. Local strength in the horseracing town of Southwell should guarantee that.

dr_spyn

Sally from Bath has some nice buns...

anotherDave

Looking at the additional questions in yesterday's YouGov.

10% think Mr Clegg is honest.
13% think Mr Cameron is honest.
16% think Mr Miliband is honest.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8cm4ggnrez/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-290414.pdf

AndyJS

Southwell - the place where even the locals can't decide how to pronounce the name of the town, let alone visitors:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/content/articles/2005/08/24/southwell_suthell_feature.shtml

OldKingCole

dr_spyn said:

UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

Little hard, I think to describe Clegg as a PPE clone. Social anthropology and various European Universities.

Typical UKIP.

JosiasJessop

Off-topic: Star Wars news

Thankfully they're abandoning the plots created in the post-episode VI series of books, and starting afresh. The books' plotlines were frankly, cr@p. "The emperor's dead!" "No he isn't, he's arisen!" "Now he's dead again!"

http://www.polygon.com/2014/4/25/5653858/star-wars-expanded-universe-lucasfilm-story-group

No_Offence_Alan

AndyJS said:

I think Farage won't stand and that not standing would be the best decision from his point of view. If he lost it would completely deflate the UKIP bandwagon 11 months before the general election.

UKIP choosing someone aged about 60 might be a good idea. The combined ages of the Tory and Labour candidates is 59. And the constituency profile is older than average.

That would be from the youth wing of UKIP, then?

anotherDave

AndyJS said:

I think Farage won't stand and that not standing would be the best decision from his point of view. If he lost it would completely deflate the UKIP bandwagon 11 months before the general election.

UKIP choosing someone aged about 60 might be a good idea. The combined ages of the Tory and Labour candidates is 59. And the constituency profile is older than average.

Their 2010 candidate is >70.

http://newarkadvertiser.co.uk/news/specialreports/election2010/newark.asp

dr_spyn

OldKingCole said:

dr_spyn said:

UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

Little hard, I think to describe Clegg as a PPE clone. Social anthropology and various European Universities.

Typical UKIP.

Students against UKIP/Thatcher/Poll Tax/etc group had a Farage is a Banker sign - not part of the PPE wunch.

Financier

If Farage stands in Newark, will he/should he resign his MEP seat?

JamesM

Good morning all. While the 'will he, won't he' discussion about Farage will be fascinating this morning, I am also interested in views on when the Conservatives should and will call the by-election. My initial reaction is that they should go for as soon as possible. While this is not going to be election day on 22nd May, if they can get it a week or two after this may be as beneficial as can be. Assuming UKIP get a win or strong 2nd on 22nd May they will be on a high admittedly, but this result is already slightly factored in by the Conservatives. Might as well get any potentially further bad news out of the way earlier.

If the Conservatives win on the flipside in Newark (which I think very possible, but with no local knowledge on my part) it also helps deflate UKIP earlier in 2014. Alongside this an early by-election would challenge UKIP to pump the resources in to the seat when also fighting the Euros for much of the campaign, and if Farage stands he is going to be stretched on the local and national campaigns, whilst opening himself up to charges of not being fully committed to Newark by standing to be a MEP too. Views?

AndyJS

I'd guess the majority of voters in the by-election will be over 55.

AndyJS

Financier said:

If Farage stands in Newark, will he/should he resign his MEP seat?

Only if he wins the by-election.

Scott_P

@oflynndirector: Nigel Farage will announce his decision re Newark just after 8am on BBC Breakfast. Do tune in.

Financier

On R4 about 7.15.am, John Curtice was doubtful that UKIP would win Newark, but thought it was possible that that UKIP could split the right/centre vote enough to allow Labour to come through the middle.

AndyJS

Southwell is usually pronounced "Suthell" in the context of the race course, but for the town itself it's a 50/50 split.

Only in Britain could you have a situation where the locals don't know how to pronounce the name of their own town:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/content/image_galleries/southwell_or_suthell_gallery.shtml?3

CarlottaVance

Scott_P said:

@oflynndirector: Nigel Farage will announce his decision re Newark just after 8am on BBC Breakfast. Do tune in.

R4 reporting that Farage claims ih he wins "Cameron should resign". What is it with the "Cameron should resign" hysterics?

MikeK

It's quite something to see when Lab/Lib/Con supporters on PB and in the MSM urge Farage to stand in Newark: all hoping to see him come unstuck by coming in second and derailing the UKIP advance.

This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

Easterross

more exciting than PMQs, whether Nigel will or will not stand

anotherDave

dr_spyn said:

UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

Was it a full house? How did the audience react? Pro/anti?

Financier

AndyJS said:

Financier said:

If Farage stands in Newark, will he/should he resign his MEP seat?

Only if he wins the by-election.

Whilst the by-election will be after the EU vote, if he does stand and with 2015 looming (in 6-9 months after Newark), it could be argued that he does not have enough time to focus on being a MEP and so is purposely neglecting his constituents and their representation in Brussels.

Easterross

Farage not standing

AlastairMeeks

He's frit.

Neil

Sensible decision from Farage.

TwistedFireStopper

Frit Farage

Easterross

Patrick Mercer must be swearing and throwing things round his kitchen at Farage's decision

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Do we know who is standing for UKIP?

AndyJS

Yesterday's Newsnight, starring Barbara Roche:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b042l7zb

AlastairMeeks

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Do we know who is standing for UKIP?

Someone other than Nigel Farage.

anotherDave

MikeK said:

This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

…and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.

Easterross

The next few Euro polls will be interesting. Will the media turn on Frit Farage and burst the protest bubble.

Financier

SeanT said:

There. Stupid. Now he looks wimpy and daft.

Why did he ever let speculation arise?

Tish tish. A bad unforced error.

Agree, shows lack of tactical nous - he should have pre-empted such speculation.

Casino_Royale

Re: Newark. I was impressed by the 'crossed every t, dotted every i' Tory candidate. He's started a business, been a managing director at Christies, qualified as a solicitor, had a law career, is immaculately groomed, handsome guy, got the wife and two kids etc.

He's only 31/ 32 years old. I don't know how he's done it. I'm the same age and haven't achieved a quarter of that. It does make me a bit suspicious. Has he really done all that?

Is part of that envy and jealousy? Absolutely. It makes me feel a bit inadequate. I just don't know how some people fit all this stuff into their lives, and at such a young age. It's not normal.

I never will, and if I did, God knows how I'd explain away my decidedly pedestrian CV in industry to a parliamentary selection panel.

AndyJS

This is the 1989 Canadian by-election which Farage is so interested in:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaver_River_(electoral_district)

Morris_Dancer

Happy birthday, Mr. K. Ramses II also lived more than 80 years. It was a tragedy when he died because all his sons had already snuffed it and nobody could remember how coronations were meant to go...

OldKingCole

Who now? Diane James? Paul Nuttall? Someone who doesn't get elected as an MEP?

CarlottaVance

Farage saying "let's pick a candidate who's local."

The (local) Tories were a lot faster at shutting down speculation over Boris.

The Tories should move the writ pronto.......

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Royale, there's always someone better. If you *really* want to feel inadequate, compare yourself to Alexander the Great.

AlastairMeeks

anotherDave said:

MikeK said:

This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

…and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.

Indeed, happy birthday Mr K. Congratulations on reaching such a milestone.

dr_spyn

Farage is a Newark...anagram.

Casino_Royale

PS. I think Newark for Farage is a trap. He should not stand.

AndyJS

Ken Clarke sounding complacent as usual.

anotherDave

Easterross said:

The next few Euro polls will be interesting. Will the media turn on Frit Farage and burst the protest bubble.

Turn on?

If negative media coverage could burst UKIP's bubble, you wouldn't be talking about a UKIP bubble.

TGOHF

Chicken Farage. ..

AlastairMeeks

Taking 12 hours to take a decision on this isn't that bad. And it got some more free publicity for UKIP. It won't do them any harm at all.

CarlottaVance

Easterross said:

Patrick Mercer must be swearing and throwing things round his kitchen at Farage's decision

Couldn't happen to a nicer chap......

TGOHF

Show what a one man band the Kippers are.

AndyJS

TGOHF said:

Show what a one man band the Kippers are.

Diane James did rather well in Eastleigh.

Pulpstar

Casino_Royale said:

Re: Newark. I was impressed by the 'crossed every t, dotted every i' Tory candidate. He's started a business, been a managing director at Christies, qualified as a solicitor, had a law career, is immaculately groomed, handsome guy, got the wife and two kids etc.

He's only 31/ 32 years old. I don't know how he's done it. I'm the same age and haven't achieved a quarter of that. It does make me a bit suspicious. Has he really done all that?

Is part of that envy and jealousy? Absolutely. It makes me feel a bit inadequate. I just don't know how some people fit all this stuff into their lives, and at such a young age. It's not normal.

I never will, and if I did, God knows how I'd explain away my decidedly pedestrian CV in industry to a parliamentary selection panel.

Maybe you're a bit lazy - like me

Morris_Dancer

I wonder how Lib Dems and Labour (both locally and in leadership terms) will approach the by-election. A UKIP win would harm the blues, but would also mean that the purples would be taken more seriously and perhaps have better prospects at the General Election. UKIP isn't only a problem for the Conservatives. They've long outpolled the Lib Dems, they're leading the European election forecasts and appear more attractive to WWC sorts than Ed Miliband (perhaps unsurprisingly).

If the left start feeding the hatchling that's nipping at Conservatives heels they may find it'll grow into a dragon sooner than they expect.

TheScreamingEagles

Nigel Farage made the right descision but it won't stop the Tories and media saying he's crap and frit.

Nigel Farage = Luca Badoer

AndyJS

In order to win Newark, UKIP would probably need a fairly big win in the Euros to keep the momentum going.