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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MichaelPDeacon: May I have some wine, Mr Farage? "Sorry, you can't, I've lost my bottle" http://t.co/Eu9wJldD8q
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @journodave: Nigel Farage doesn't want to fight because his mum says he has to go home for tea, but will fight you tomorrow before school.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nicholaswatt: Michael Portillo, @DMiliband + now @Nigel_Farage: when their moment came Frit got the better of them
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Nigel Farage made the right descision but it won't stop the Tories and media saying he's crap and frit.

    Nigel Farage = Luca Badoer

    Farage = Broon, Hezza , David Miliband. ... big chance and no nuts...
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,924
    Pulpstar said:

    Re: Newark. I was impressed by the 'crossed every t, dotted every i' Tory candidate. He's started a business, been a managing director at Christies, qualified as a solicitor, had a law career, is immaculately groomed, handsome guy, got the wife and two kids etc.

    He's only 31/ 32 years old. I don't know how he's done it. I'm the same age and haven't achieved a quarter of that. It does make me a bit suspicious. Has he really done all that?

    Is part of that envy and jealousy? Absolutely. It makes me feel a bit inadequate. I just don't know how some people fit all this stuff into their lives, and at such a young age. It's not normal.

    I never will, and if I did, God knows how I'd explain away my decidedly pedestrian CV in industry to a parliamentary selection panel.

    Maybe you're a bit lazy - like me ;)
    Perhaps! It's not as if I don't work hard though. I spend 12+ hours today commuting into and working in London. It's just in the evenings I prefer to spend time with pb.com (and my wife!) and read a bit. At the weekend go for a walk, down the pub, get away for a break or go to see friends and family. I can't imagine that's too unusual.

    There is a limit to how much I can be arsed though ;-)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Amazing how care home staff never seem to learn that they might be being filmed.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944
    antifrank said:

    Taking 12 hours to take a decision on this isn't that bad. And it got some more free publicity for UKIP. It won't do them any harm at all.

    Not having a candidate in place (have they?) or allowing speculation about his replacement isn't that great - the local Tories were ready and promptly shut down Boris speculation. This by-election has been highly likely for nigh on a year. The Tories should capitalise on the lack of organisation and move the writ ASAP.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    Farage = bottler.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie 15m
    Farage sensibly ignores media pressure for him to stand in Newark. Very little gain for him. Lots of downside.

    Tim Montgomerie ‏@TimMontgomerie 1m
    Ken Clarke goes on the radio to defend the EU and the Euro. Has Conservative HQ gone mad?

    LOL......... ;D
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    Farage got that right; Newark is not going to be a strategic focus for UKIP going forward, it would have distracted them from real targets. And there's a very real chance it'll be a big Tory hold.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MaxPB said:

    Farage = bottler.

    MaxPB = Idiot
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,924

    Mr. Royale, there's always someone better. If you *really* want to feel inadequate, compare yourself to Alexander the Great.

    Thanks. He seemed a bit weird though. I wouldn't want to be that messed up and sociopathic.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Eagles, poor Luca Badoer. He was unlucky to be the poor sod who had to prove the rather obvious: namely that if you stop someone even using practice sessions to keep up to speed with F1 they just won't be able to hack it if thrust into the limelight.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Re: Newark. I was impressed by the 'crossed every t, dotted every i' Tory candidate. He's started a business, been a managing director at Christies, qualified as a solicitor, had a law career, is immaculately groomed, handsome guy, got the wife and two kids etc.

    He's only 31/ 32 years old. I don't know how he's done it. I'm the same age and haven't achieved a quarter of that. It does make me a bit suspicious. Has he really done all that?

    Is part of that envy and jealousy? Absolutely. It makes me feel a bit inadequate. I just don't know how some people fit all this stuff into their lives, and at such a young age. It's not normal.

    I never will, and if I did, God knows how I'd explain away my decidedly pedestrian CV in industry to a parliamentary selection panel.

    Mr Royale: not to worry - key thing is he and his family happy?

    I had achieved all of those by that age (in industry) except the M before the D, but fortuitously I was at the right places at the right times - but it was very stressful as I lost both my parents before then whilst globetrotting. Both my sons followed my footsteps (but no children) whilst daughter dropped out of school, did her own thing and has a very happy family and job she loves whilst living in a warmer climate than ours.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I wonder how Lib Dems and Labour (both locally and in leadership terms) will approach the by-election.

    Being part of a LD by-election team must be pretty dispiriting. Chin up there!

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,355
    Farage has made the obvious and right decision. He's no chicken.

    But he does need to get well behind whoever UKIP pick to be their candidate.
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    TGOHF said:

    Nigel Farage made the right descision but it won't stop the Tories and media saying he's crap and frit.

    Nigel Farage = Luca Badoer

    Farage = Broon, Hezza , David Miliband. ... big chance and no nuts...
    Has Nigel Farage got a younger brother who may stab him in the front?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,641
    antifrank said:

    Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first send mad. Nigel Farage seems to be on the Gods' B list this morning.

    No surprise on the decision we can move on.

    This point, however, is more interesting - we know Farage is a good politician on his own terms with eg. journalists at arms length in the pub or playing the they-all-hate-us game.

    But how good is he on someone else's terms? Being an MP will bring uncontrollable and unwanted challenges and attention.

    Has he allowed an inflated sense of his abilities and importance to develop? Might he indeed be sent mad if subjected to the cut and thrust of MP-dom?
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    Mr. Eagles, poor Luca Badoer. He was unlucky to be the poor sod who had to prove the rather obvious: namely that if you stop someone even using practice sessions to keep up to speed with F1 they just won't be able to hack it if thrust into the limelight.

    Luca Badoer could have had a million practise sessions and he still would be crap.

    I do believe he is the chap who has completed the most laps in F1 history without winning a race.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,001
    Well, there's s surprise!
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,058
    antifrank said:

    Taking 12 hours to take a decision on this isn't that bad. And it got some more free publicity for UKIP. It won't do them any harm at all.

    He will go for an east coast seat at next GE. This is the correct decision from Nigel, and he hasn't taken too long over it.

    Quite agree with your conclusion.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Suspect the b/e will be soon - Cons now have oppo for a boost after Euros.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,244
    edited April 2014

    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Was it a full house? How did the audience react? Pro/anti?
    Here's an appraisal [edit: of the Bath UKIP event] from a perhaps slightly unexpected quarter - an independent (in at least one sense!) observer who is nevertheless well aware of the implications.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-belly-of-the-beast/#more-54179

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    MikeK said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farage = bottler.

    MaxPB = Idiot
    UKIP = chumps. Winnable by election but your leader has bottled it. If your party believes it will hold ye balance of power in the next parliament then they need MPs. Getting Farage in would be a massive win and worth the gamble. Enough anti Tory voters would come out and lend him a vote to give the Tories a black eye to make a race of it.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @gabyhinsliff: Um, Nigel farage just suggested Ukip might even be 'holding the balance of power' at Westminster after next election. #r4today

    @gabyhinsliff: While bottling yet another by election, obv. Make of that what you will.

    @IanDunt: Farage says he's a "fighter and a warrior". He's all talk and no trousers.

    @jameskirkup: Nigel Farage bottles it. Again.

    @Dannythefink: Nigel Farage's conclusion that Newark is not a suitable seat for Ukip raises interesting strategic question- where is?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Practice*, Mr. Eagles. It only takes an S (in English) when used as a verb.

    Mr. Eagles, wasn't he with Minardi or somesuch, early on?
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    antifrank said:

    Taking 12 hours to take a decision on this isn't that bad. And it got some more free publicity for UKIP. It won't do them any harm at all.

    Not having a candidate in place (have they?) or allowing speculation about his replacement isn't that great - the local Tories were ready and promptly shut down Boris speculation. This by-election has been highly likely for nigh on a year. The Tories should capitalise on the lack of organisation and move the writ ASAP.
    There's no UKIP candidate in place, Labour selected their candidate earlier in April, the Conservatives selected a candidate last year.

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    Antifrank pointed out the other Miliband brother is called Steve.

    He's a joker, he's a smoker, he's a midnight talker, Some people call him Maurice.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    Would appear the media are falling over themselves, dancing to NFarage’s tune! – And now he has wimped out from standing in Newark.

    Not sure who is looking more silly today, the media or Farage - and I guess this circus will continue until he eventually makes up his mind where he is going to stand.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,058
    "Stryker is everything you want in a Miliband. He’s handsome, rugged, successful, sporty and charismatic, rather than just some fucking weirdo."

    “He also knows how to smile properly, instead of looking like someone who’s just shat themselves.”
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    antifrank said:

    MikeK said:



    This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

    …and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

    Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.
    Indeed, happy birthday Mr K. Congratulations on reaching such a milestone.
    Thank you guys, and all those PBers, Who wished me a happy 80th birthday today.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944
    What Farage should have been saying this morning is "Of course I'm not standing - we have an excellent local candidate Jane Brown who has been speaking to local residents since her selection 6 months ago..."

    Instead (if the Tories have any sense) we'll get a re-run of Eastleigh with the losing UKIP candidate complaining that the short campaign meant "we wuz robbed"....probably throwing in something about postal ballots for good measure....
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    eekeek Posts: 25,209

    The Tories should capitalise on the lack of organisation and move the writ ASAP.

    Won't make any difference when they move the writ. The earliest the election can now be is June 12th based on the 25 working days rule....
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    Practice*, Mr. Eagles. It only takes an S (in English) when used as a verb.

    Mr. Eagles, wasn't he with Minardi or somesuch, early on?

    I'm blaming auto-correct.

    He was with Minardi.

    I did Luca a disservice.

    Badoer holds the record for the most Grand Prix starts – 50 – and the most race laps completed – 2364 – without scoring a point
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,355
    MikeK said:

    antifrank said:

    MikeK said:



    This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

    …and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

    Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.
    Indeed, happy birthday Mr K. Congratulations on reaching such a milestone.
    Thank you guys, and all those PBers, Who wished me a happy 80th birthday today.
    Please add me to that list - happy birthday! It's quite a milestone.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,081
    Very good decision by Farage not to stand for all the reasons I outlined yesterday. Newark is not fertile UKIP territory and although I will happily be over there campaigning for UKIP (I moved about 15 miles out of the constituency a few years ago) I do not think they have a serious chance of winning.

    I still think this will have far more to do with the town's demographic than the Tory candidate who I believe is a poor choice for the constituency.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeK said:

    antifrank said:

    MikeK said:



    This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

    …and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

    Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.
    Indeed, happy birthday Mr K. Congratulations on reaching such a milestone.
    Thank you guys, and all those PBers, Who wished me a happy 80th birthday today.
    Many happy returns Mr K.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,081
    Oh and great thanks to AveryLP for your kind words last night.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    F1: Malaysia are apparently going to try and re-negotiate their contract. Could happen, or could lead to the race being axed. The climate isn't great for drivers.

    And Renault reckon they'll get the engine to nearly 100% by Canada. I'm going to pay close attention, with a view to backing Red Bull for the Constructors, depending how things go.

    Mercedes have a huge advantage and, unlike Brawn, have the means to develop their car all year. But Red Bull *are* the best aerodynamically. Their reliability could be better, though, and Vettel needs to rediscover his form.

    Very, very interesting season, I think.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,920
    edited April 2014
    MikeK said:

    antifrank said:

    MikeK said:



    This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

    …and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

    Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.
    Indeed, happy birthday Mr K. Congratulations on reaching such a milestone.
    Thank you guys, and all those PBers, Who wished me a happy 80th birthday today.
    Happy Birthday Young Man.

    May your friends send you a stripper for every birthday you've had.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,209
    edited April 2014
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    2012 figures show the US economy to be about twice as large as China's in nominal terms:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

    It's drivel. Just because Americans buy flat whites and haircuts off each other in the world's reserve currency does not make them the biggest economy by far. Fact is, China is the world's biggest manufacturer, the biggest energy consumer, the biggest trader, the 2nd largest consumer (and soon the first).

    It therefore makes total sense that China is very close to being the world's biggest economy: much closer than we realise. It is already, in most meaningful senses of the term, the most important economy.

    But if you don't believe what I say, take it up with The Economist.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/04/daily-chart-19

    "China will be crowned the world's pre-eminent country by the end of this year according to The Economist’s calculations. The American Century ends, and the Pacific Century begins."
    I remember similiar things being stated about Japan in the mid to late 1980's. Then the Japanese economy went pop.

    and if you look closely at China, there are a lot of things that imply it could be heading the same way. Trillions of investment in ghost cities with no plausible inhabitants....

    Also while China may be bigger its got 3-4 times the population of the USA. Yes the total economy may be bigger, but per capita is a quarter of the size.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,081
    MaxPB said:

    MikeK said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farage = bottler.

    MaxPB = Idiot
    UKIP = chumps. Winnable by election but your leader has bottled it. If your party believes it will hold ye balance of power in the next parliament then they need MPs. Getting Farage in would be a massive win and worth the gamble. Enough anti Tory voters would come out and lend him a vote to give the Tories a black eye to make a race of it.
    Not winnable - or at least no more than 10% chance. All those claiming otherwise clearly do not know the seat.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Farage saying "let's pick a candidate who's local."

    The (local) Tories were a lot faster at shutting down speculation over Boris.

    The Tories should move the writ pronto.......


    Sorry, not had a chance to catch up on past threads - what happened wrt Boris standing pls
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944
    eek said:

    The Tories should capitalise on the lack of organisation and move the writ ASAP.

    Won't make any difference when they move the writ. The earliest the election can now be is June 12th based on the 25 working days rule....
    Better then than later - UKIP are focussed on the Euros until the 22nd and don't have a candidate in place......

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    Farage saying "let's pick a candidate who's local."

    The (local) Tories were a lot faster at shutting down speculation over Boris.

    The Tories should move the writ pronto.......


    Sorry, not had a chance to catch up on past threads - what happened wrt Boris standing pls
    The Tories already have a candidate, whom on paper seems impressive, though Richard Tyndall thinks he may not appeal to the Newark electorate.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944
    MikeK said:

    antifrank said:

    MikeK said:



    This must be the first time I can remember in British politics when there is complete unanimity of Lab/Lib/Con in their hatred and fear of a fourth party.

    …and unable to reduce UKIP's support.

    Many happy returns Mr K. Hope your day goes well.
    Indeed, happy birthday Mr K. Congratulations on reaching such a milestone.
    Thank you guys, and all those PBers, Who wished me a happy 80th birthday today.
    Many happy returns! And may you enjoy many more!
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,081
    Oh and for the record. Right decision from Farage but bloody awful expectations management. He should have killed the speculation dead last night before it even started. There has been plenty of warning that this by-election might be called and UKIP should have had a strategy in place to deal with the speculation weeks ago.
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Neil said:

    If Farage had already declared for South Thanet this wouldnt be such an issue now.

    The only good reason for Farage not declaring himself a candidate for South Thanet now is so that he is free to stand in a winnable by-election first.

    If Newark is not a winnable by-election for UKIP - because they did not even save their deposit here last time, took less than 20% of the vote in the local elections last year, etc - then it does not seem like there are all that many seats which are. This suggests that Farage really should simply decide where he is going to stand next year and get on with campaigning in that seat.

    Someone mentioned that UKIP are likely to complain about the short campaign potentially robbing them of a fair chance at winning the by-election. If Farage were to declare now that he was standing in South Thanet at the next GE then he effectively creates a one-year campaign for election in that seat.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    I wonder how Lib Dems and Labour (both locally and in leadership terms) will approach the by-election. A UKIP win would harm the blues, but would also mean that the purples would be taken more seriously and perhaps have better prospects at the General Election. UKIP isn't only a problem for the Conservatives. They've long outpolled the Lib Dems, they're leading the European election forecasts and appear more attractive to WWC sorts than Ed Miliband (perhaps unsurprisingly).

    If the left start feeding the hatchling that's nipping at Conservatives heels they may find it'll grow into a dragon sooner than they expect.

    You have no evidence that Ukip are more attractive to the WWC than Labour. In fact, if you look at the actual voting numbers you'll find the opposite...

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,081
    Happy Birthday MikeK. And hoping you have a lot more things to celebrate in the next year on the political front as well.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,001
    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Was it a full house? How did the audience react? Pro/anti?
    Here's an appraisal [edit: of the Bath UKIP event] from a perhaps slightly unexpected quarter - an independent (in at least one sense!) observer who is nevertheless well aware of the implications.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-belly-of-the-beast/#more-54179

    An observer whose interests are directly served by creating the impression that UKIP represents majority opinion in England. Can't think why!!!

    Meanwhile, presumably Alyn Smith the SNP MEP will shortly be calling on the LDs to withdraw their scurrilous allegations over what he said at a Scottish Law Society meeting last night or face legal action:

    ... At a debate organised by the Law Society in Scotland, Alyn Smith, SNP MEP, said that the SNP leadership should admit that they had made a mistake over an independent Scotland’s EU membership. They assert that they would be able to get in with the same terms as the rest of the UK, despite a growing pile of evidence to the contrary. There is little doubt that an independent Scotland would get EU membership at some point, but the terms and the speed at which it would happen are far from clear.
    Smith told the astonished crowd that the SNP leadership had not listened to his advice that membership would not be as automatic as they had claimed.

    http://www.libdemvoice.org/trouble-in-paradisesnp-mep-says-leadership-should-admit-they-made-a-mistake-over-independent-scotlands-eu-membership-39589.html


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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    MaxPB said:

    MikeK said:

    MaxPB said:

    Farage = bottler.

    MaxPB = Idiot
    UKIP = chumps. Winnable by election but your leader has bottled it. If your party believes it will hold ye balance of power in the next parliament then they need MPs. Getting Farage in would be a massive win and worth the gamble. Enough anti Tory voters would come out and lend him a vote to give the Tories a black eye to make a race of it.
    Not winnable - or at least no more than 10% chance. All those claiming otherwise clearly do not know the seat.
    With a regular candidate that is true. With Farage his appeal would be wider than the party, and enough aanti Tory voters would come out to make it into a race. One which Farage could win where other UKIP candidates would not.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Fett, UKIP's 15-20% is coming from somewhere, and it isn't the metropolitan Guardian-readers of Primrose Hill.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alstewitn: I do believe Mr Farage just blinked. #bubble #burst
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    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 14s

    Ladbrokes http://bit.ly/c5gpH6 tighten the odds on CON victory in Newark following Farage news

    8/11 CON
    5/2 UKIP (out from 2/1)
    10/3 Lab
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Was it a full house? How did the audience react? Pro/anti?
    Here's an appraisal [edit: of the Bath UKIP event] from a perhaps slightly unexpected quarter - an independent (in at least one sense!) observer who is nevertheless well aware of the implications.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-belly-of-the-beast/#more-54179

    Thanks for that. Encouraging article.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944
    eek said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    2012 figures show the US economy to be about twice as large as China's in nominal terms:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

    It's drivel. Just because Americans buy flat whites and haircuts off each other in the world's reserve currency does not make them the biggest economy by far. Fact is, China is the world's biggest manufacturer, the biggest energy consumer, the biggest trader, the 2nd largest consumer (and soon the first).

    It therefore makes total sense that China is very close to being the world's biggest economy: much closer than we realise. It is already, in most meaningful senses of the term, the most important economy.

    But if you don't believe what I say, take it up with The Economist.

    http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/04/daily-chart-19

    "China will be crowned the world's pre-eminent country by the end of this year according to The Economist’s calculations. The American Century ends, and the Pacific Century begins."
    I remember similiar things being stated about Japan in the mid to late 1980's. Then the Japanese economy went pop.
    Like when the grounds of the Imperial Palace in Tokyo were worth more than all the real estate in California?

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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Happy Birthday Mr K...
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Where do Ukip consider to be fertile territory if not a rural backwater in fruit picking country with loads of old people and hardly any ethnic minorities?

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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Nigel Farage made the right descision but it won't stop the Tories and media saying he's crap and frit.

    Nigel Farage = Luca Badoer

    Correct. As SeanT says, he should have squashed it instantly, and this is mildly embarrassing. But going in and losing badly would have been potentially terminal - miuch better to be teased by the media for 24 hours.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Nigel Farage was accused of "bottling it" today after raising the prospect of standing in and winning the Newark by-election, only to walk away from the fight.

    In what could prove to be a major miscalculation, Farage had raised the prospect of "completely [changing] the political landscape" by winning the seat and insisted that his victory would even force David Cameron to resign.
    http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2014/04/30/farage-bottles-it-ukip-leader-stands-down-in-newark
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    'Kin Hell

    TNS BMRB poll on the Euros

    UKIP 36%

    Lab 27%

    Con 18%

    LD 10%

    Others 9%
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: I do believe Mr Farage just blinked. #bubble #burst

    What's your view? I only ask because once again you post other people's drivel rather than expressing your own opinion.
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Morris

    Ukip attracts some WWC voters, yet the WWC overall votes overwhelmingly Labour.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Oh and for the record. Right decision from Farage but bloody awful expectations management. He should have killed the speculation dead last night before it even started.

    They did the same think over Mr Clegg's debate challenge. They used the media interest to increase attention on Mr Farage's next media appearance, when he would give his answer. So this was a deliberate choice, not UKIP faffing about.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    FPT for AndyJS:

    AndyJS said:

    "Had dinner with Adam Boulton and the Sky News team tonight, as they prepare for election coverage of potential winning PPCs - all off the record so I won't quote anything, but an interesting session and illuminating about the leader debates."

    Maybe you could point Adam Boulton in the direction of my candidates' list if you see him again. I don't think anyone else is doing one.
    --------------

    OK - I have an email for follow-ups. Remind me what it comprises exactly and how to contact you?
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Probably the right decision by Farage - somebody else needs the publicity.

    Sorry to go off-topic, but can someone explain the excitement about the new "Star Wars" film. I like sci-fi, but when the first film came out, it seemed to be a children's film, a comic book take-off.

    And these so-called Jedi Knights fighting with a light sabre? I did like the scene in one of the Indiana Jones films where Indiana is confronted by a baddie who starts doing all the moves with his sword. Indiana pulls out a gun and shoots him. Exactly. Like the early stages of the Great War when the generals believed that a bayonet would beat the machine gun.

    Oh, and can I annoy everyone else by saying that Dr Who is equally childish.

    But I thought Dune was great but not as good as the book.
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    9% lead for UKIP in the Euros, and the Tory share of the vote is closer to the Lib Dems than it is to Labour!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,001
    BobaFett said:

    I wonder how Lib Dems and Labour (both locally and in leadership terms) will approach the by-election. A UKIP win would harm the blues, but would also mean that the purples would be taken more seriously and perhaps have better prospects at the General Election. UKIP isn't only a problem for the Conservatives. They've long outpolled the Lib Dems, they're leading the European election forecasts and appear more attractive to WWC sorts than Ed Miliband (perhaps unsurprisingly).

    If the left start feeding the hatchling that's nipping at Conservatives heels they may find it'll grow into a dragon sooner than they expect.

    You have no evidence that Ukip are more attractive to the WWC than Labour. In fact, if you look at the actual voting numbers you'll find the opposite...

    Like it or not UKIP rings a bell on immigration, but there's an awful lot about the party that Labour should be able to get its teeth into, not least its lionisation of neo-liberal economics and its claims to be the true keepers of the Thatcherite flame - neither of which is likely to appeal to the Labour-inclined, least of all working class voters whose communities collapsed during the 80s and 90s and have never recovered. What it means, though, is getting a lot more active in areas that Labour has taken for granted for far too long.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,183

    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Was it a full house? How did the audience react? Pro/anti?
    Here's an appraisal [edit: of the Bath UKIP event] from a perhaps slightly unexpected quarter - an independent (in at least one sense!) observer who is nevertheless well aware of the implications.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-belly-of-the-beast/#more-54179

    Thanks for that. Encouraging article.

    Thought-provoking I would have said!
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    Hehe

    Even conhome are putting the boot in

    Missing: Please send on to Nigel Farage if you can

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/missing-please-send-on-to-nigel_farage-if-you-can.html
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    Scott_P said:

    @alstewitn: I do believe Mr Farage just blinked. #bubble #burst

    What's your view? I only ask because once again you post other people's drivel rather than expressing your own opinion.
    Tell us about your haircut again 'Bob'. That was riveting stuff.
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    MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    The only people disappointed that Farage isn't standing in Newark are journalists, which says it all
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944

    Oh and for the record. Right decision from Farage but bloody awful expectations management. He should have killed the speculation dead last night before it even started. There has been plenty of warning that this by-election might be called and UKIP should have had a strategy in place to deal with the speculation weeks ago.

    Fair summary - but they should have had a candidate in place - this goes to their overall organisational competence.

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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    BobaFett said:

    Where do Ukip consider to be fertile territory if not a rural backwater in fruit picking country with loads of old people and hardly any ethnic minorities?

    And a large Polish community. Hardly 'fertile'.
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    'Kin Hell

    TNS BMRB poll on the Euros

    UKIP 36%

    Lab 27%

    Con 18%

    LD 10%

    Others 9%

    Changes since their last poll at the start of April

    UKIP plus 7, Lab minus 3, Con minus 3, LDs plus 1
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    volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    It's game on for another battle of Balcombe and Charles Metcalfe, from Frack Free Balcombe Residents Association, said: "This is going to give the go-ahead for other companies all over Sussex [and] all over the Weald basin.

    "We're talking Kent, Surrey, Sussex, Hampshire - it's going to really proliferate and change this part of the country."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-27204264
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    'Kin Hell

    TNS BMRB poll on the Euros

    UKIP 36%

    Lab 27%

    Con 18%

    LD 10%

    Others 9%

    Changes since their last poll at the start of April

    UKIP plus 7, Lab minus 3, Con minus 3, LDs plus 1
    Have the Tories ever underpolled 20% in a national election?
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Was it a full house? How did the audience react? Pro/anti?
    Here's an appraisal [edit: of the Bath UKIP event] from a perhaps slightly unexpected quarter - an independent (in at least one sense!) observer who is nevertheless well aware of the implications.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-belly-of-the-beast/#more-54179

    Thanks for that. Encouraging article.

    Thought-provoking I would have said!
    UKIP chances aside, I find it encouraging that a public electoral meeting can generate 700+ attendees. I like it that the rentamob who wanted to disrupt and intimidate failed. Very positive stuff.

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    Farage claims his winning would mean Cammo resigning.... next breath virtually he's not standing..

    did he explain this on the interview?
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    BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Where do Ukip consider to be fertile territory if not a rural backwater in fruit picking country with loads of old people and hardly any ethnic minorities?

    And a large Polish community. Hardly 'fertile'.
    Isn't Boston also known for large amounts of Poles? This, we are told, is a Kipper stronghold.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,001

    BobaFett said:

    Where do Ukip consider to be fertile territory if not a rural backwater in fruit picking country with loads of old people and hardly any ethnic minorities?

    And a large Polish community. Hardly 'fertile'.

    Most of the seats that people talk of as potential UKIP targets have big immigrant communities, don't they?
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    Just in case anyone missed it.

    G'day from the Timor Sea.

    According to the FT, China will overtake America as the worlds biggest economic power THIS YEAR (calculating GDP on a PPP basis)



    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ffff8-cfb7-11e3-9b2b-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/home_us/feed//product#axzz30Ke1aWVQ

    I remember when I first started predicting this Chinese 'sorpasso' on pb, about 6 years ago. And I was roundly derided by.... well, you know who you are.

    I will refrain from gloating now,

    *gloats*

    What's the price of silver now?

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,352
    Mr Fett,

    "Where do Ukip consider to be fertile territory if not a rural backwater in fruit picking country with loads of old people and hardly any ethnic minorities?"

    Go East, young man.

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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,994

    Oh and for the record. Right decision from Farage but bloody awful expectations management. He should have killed the speculation dead last night before it even started.

    They did the same think over Mr Clegg's debate challenge. They used the media interest to increase attention on Mr Farage's next media appearance, when he would give his answer. So this was a deliberate choice, not UKIP faffing about.
    But with the debate challenge he then accepted. This time he didn't. Increasing the hype doesn;t work if you've got an anti-climax planned.
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    BobaFett said:

    'Kin Hell

    TNS BMRB poll on the Euros

    UKIP 36%

    Lab 27%

    Con 18%

    LD 10%

    Others 9%

    Changes since their last poll at the start of April

    UKIP plus 7, Lab minus 3, Con minus 3, LDs plus 1
    Have the Tories ever underpolled 20% in a national election?
    Don't think so.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    There. Stupid. Now he looks wimpy and daft.

    Why did he ever let speculation arise?

    Tish tish. A bad unforced error.

    He didn't. It was a full scale onslaught by by the MSM and the Lab/Lib/Con urging Farage to stand, in the hope of him coming 2nd or worse. His reasons for declining the poison chalice was sound and politicly wise.

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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944

    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    UKIP in Bath - reminders to significant segment of audience that Heath lied, was intending to lie and history would show he was always lying over Federal Europe. Reminder from Farage that Clegg, Miliband and Cameron were identikit PPE clones - SPADs with no experience of world outside Westminster and politics. Plenty clapped. In many was it remains an anti modern politics party - shades of Italy after DC break up? Leaflet reminded voters about Greens forcing up energy, and firing salvoes off against The Coalition and Labour as well. No sign of the tiny crowd from Rentamob's politics group inside the hall. Whilst waiting to go in -hearing well heeled voices chanting UKIP scum off our streets, was the highlight of the evening. UKIP haven't made a convert.

    Was it a full house? How did the audience react? Pro/anti?
    Here's an appraisal [edit: of the Bath UKIP event] from a perhaps slightly unexpected quarter - an independent (in at least one sense!) observer who is nevertheless well aware of the implications.

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-belly-of-the-beast/#more-54179

    Thanks for that. Encouraging article.

    And from what I heard tonight, even in a longtime Lib Dem city that owes much of its livelihood to European tourists, and as such is both familiar and comfortable with “foreigners”, that referendum is only going to go one way.

    "in", if he's been reading the polls......
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,081
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    Where do Ukip consider to be fertile territory if not a rural backwater in fruit picking country with loads of old people and hardly any ethnic minorities?

    And a large Polish community. Hardly 'fertile'.
    Isn't Boston also known for large amounts of Poles? This, we are told, is a Kipper stronghold.
    Nope Boston has a large Portuguese population rather than Polish.

    But the nationality is not the important factor. It is the time since arrival. Newark has a large Polish descendant population as it was where the Polish Airborne forces were based and trained in WW2. Many stayed after the war and the leader of the Free Poles was buried in the town until about a decade ago. I grew up surrounded by Poles without even knowing it (which I mean as a positive thing). This population then attracted more Poles to the town during the Solidarity era and of course more again after Poland joined the EU. So the local view of Eastern European migration is rather different to that of other places which might have seena more sudden influx with corresponding tensions.

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,355
    CD13 said:

    Probably the right decision by Farage - somebody else needs the publicity.

    Sorry to go off-topic, but can someone explain the excitement about the new "Star Wars" film. I like sci-fi, but when the first film came out, it seemed to be a children's film, a comic book take-off.

    And these so-called Jedi Knights fighting with a light sabre? I did like the scene in one of the Indiana Jones films where Indiana is confronted by a baddie who starts doing all the moves with his sword. Indiana pulls out a gun and shoots him. Exactly. Like the early stages of the Great War when the generals believed that a bayonet would beat the machine gun.

    Oh, and can I annoy everyone else by saying that Dr Who is equally childish.

    But I thought Dune was great but not as good as the book.

    I agree with much of that. But I have a fondness for episodes 4-6 because I grew up with them. Return of the Jedi is the second film I can remember seeing at the cinema, after ET. Episodes 4-6 may also have a simple story at heart, but it is well told. They take me back to my childhood.

    Perhaps the disadvantage of light sabres you mention just increases the Jedi's mystique with the audience? They're seemingly at a disadvantage and yet fight and (mostly) win despite that disadvantage.

    Utterly agree about Dr Who. It is a dire pastiche of science fiction. They need to get some good writers in. It'd be interesting to see what a J. Michael Straczynski-written Dr Who series would be like.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Hehe

    Even conhome are putting the boot in

    Missing: Please send on to Nigel Farage if you can

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/04/missing-please-send-on-to-nigel_farage-if-you-can.html

    Very few of the voting public read or even know of Conhome. Even fewer tories are reading it.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,924
    Financier said:

    Re: Newark. I was impressed by the 'crossed every t, dotted every i' Tory candidate. He's started a business, been a managing director at Christies, qualified as a solicitor, had a law career, is immaculately groomed, handsome guy, got the wife and two kids etc.

    He's only 31/ 32 years old. I don't know how he's done it. I'm the same age and haven't achieved a quarter of that. It does make me a bit suspicious. Has he really done all that?

    Is part of that envy and jealousy? Absolutely. It makes me feel a bit inadequate. I just don't know how some people fit all this stuff into their lives, and at such a young age. It's not normal.

    I never will, and if I did, God knows how I'd explain away my decidedly pedestrian CV in industry to a parliamentary selection panel.

    Mr Royale: not to worry - key thing is he and his family happy?

    I had achieved all of those by that age (in industry) except the M before the D, but fortuitously I was at the right places at the right times - but it was very stressful as I lost both my parents before then whilst globetrotting. Both my sons followed my footsteps (but no children) whilst daughter dropped out of school, did her own thing and has a very happy family and job she loves whilst living in a warmer climate than ours.
    Sorry to hear about your parents, Financier. Thanks for the reassurance too. You're absolutely right: happiness is what matters. Personally, I am quite risk averse and don't deal with stress and responsibility very well. I also have enough commitment and obligation I my life as it is. I'd feel constrained and unfree if I had any more. There was a 2 year period of my career in a major global firm when I was on an 'upward' trajectory, and I hated it. It made me miserable. I also saw what it had done to some of the very senior directors and partners. I didn't like what I saw and weren't convinced all of them were happy either.

    It was slightly tongue in cheek, but I wonder if I was partly influenced by the famous Daily Mash t-shirt as well! "Having a goal is pointless, and stressful. No one cares if you're 'successful', and neither should you."

    I had a bit of an epiphany. You're only here once and should do what makes you happy. As long as I have a good income, can spend my free time doing the things I enjoy doing with my wife, friends and family, that's enough for me.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Southwell is usually pronounced "Suthell" in the context of the race course, but for the town itself it's a 50/50 split.

    Only in Britain could you have a situation where the locals don't know how to pronounce the name of their own town:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/nottingham/content/image_galleries/southwell_or_suthell_gallery.shtml?3

    There's an ongoing dispute in our family on how to pronounce the name of 2 villages...
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    So Farage has bottled it!!

    But it's probably a wise move to be honest... if Farage failed then it would be an big issue for the party.
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,440

    'Kin Hell

    TNS BMRB poll on the Euros

    UKIP 36%

    Lab 27%

    Con 18%

    LD 10%

    Others 9%

    I make that C11(-15)L23(+10)LD4(-7)UKIP29(+16)G0(-2)Nats3(0)BNP0(-2)
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP's best chance now may be for an "under the radar" win, giving the impression they expect the Tories to hold the seat easily.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,944
    edited April 2014

    BobaFett said:

    I wonder how Lib Dems and Labour (both locally and in leadership terms) will approach the by-election. A UKIP win would harm the blues, but would also mean that the purples would be taken more seriously and perhaps have better prospects at the General Election. UKIP isn't only a problem for the Conservatives. They've long outpolled the Lib Dems, they're leading the European election forecasts and appear more attractive to WWC sorts than Ed Miliband (perhaps unsurprisingly).

    If the left start feeding the hatchling that's nipping at Conservatives heels they may find it'll grow into a dragon sooner than they expect.

    You have no evidence that Ukip are more attractive to the WWC than Labour. In fact, if you look at the actual voting numbers you'll find the opposite...

    [UKIP] lionisation of neo-liberal economics.
    Are you sure about that? (I know it can be difficult to keep track.....) - but some of the things I've heard recently struck me as classic "old Labour"......

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    QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,994
    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    There. Stupid. Now he looks wimpy and daft.

    Why did he ever let speculation arise?

    Tish tish. A bad unforced error.

    He didn't. It was a full scale onslaught by by the MSM and the Lab/Lib/Con urging Farage to stand, in the hope of him coming 2nd or worse. His reasons for declining the poison chalice was sound and politicly wise.

    He did. The speculation began when he said that he'd "seriously consider" standing if the by-election was post-Euros.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2014
    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    There. Stupid. Now he looks wimpy and daft.

    Why did he ever let speculation arise?

    Tish tish. A bad unforced error.

    He didn't. It was a full scale onslaught by by the MSM and the Lab/Lib/Con urging Farage to stand, in the hope of him coming 2nd or worse. His reasons for declining the poison chalice was sound and politicly wise.

    Nonsense, it was media speculation entirely generated by Farage's prevarications - I suggest you read @Richard_Tyndall's comment below as to who should shoulder the blame.

    And many happy returns of the day MrK - quite and achievement, enjoy your day.
This discussion has been closed.