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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Charleston debate: The betting verdict

The betdata.io chart of the Betfair exchange shows how punters responded to the latest debate. The betting loser was Bernie who was a 53% chance yesterday morning and is now a 43% one.
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Biden also in, from 12 or 13 yesterday to 9.8.
This market is still very under-round, the back prices for the eight layable candidates (including the two first lady non-runners) add to 89.14%.
The only question is which flavour of their politics do you want? That is, if anybody really cares.....
Message on COVID-19 seems to be to avoid church congregations......
What could possibly be a drawback with such a field?
Only one of whom is a Democrat.
Way to go, primary system.....
Both Bloomberg and Biden had better nights but nothing spectacular. And clearing such a low bar for the former VP isn't impressive anyway.
Barring a Disease X catastrophe, I can't see Trump losing. The only one who could lay a finger on him is probably Mike Bloomberg, but the Democrats decided to tear into him instead.
What a mess.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1232555221647314944?s=20
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1232555225598373889?s=20
Moral of the story? Avoid religion.
p.s. The Singapore Times needs training on how to write a Newspaper headline
They are a party with a death wish.
But it’s a bit strange that in a very diverse nation of 300 million people you have four effectively identical candidates, even if they have some differences over policy.
It’s not even as though any of them are any actual good.
They carve them into artisan pillows and sell them to hotels. Goddam it, how can anyone sleep on these things?
No alcohol for me this Lent.
It even extends to cover a weird shade of Tampa Orange. (Or maybe that should be Tamper Orange.....)
https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1232392693835292678
Wonder who that might be..........
The sheep, of course, are a different matter...
Seems like you're almost a parody of a white working class ex-Labour voter.
What was more worrying was that we'd all driven to the meeting.
Did get a contract out of it, though!
Honestly I think it might be Bernie.
I just can't see Bernie supporters voting for an ex Republican who backed Bush in 2004. This idea that moderate Republicans are going to vote Democrat doesn't seem likely to me either.
Odds shifting a bit but Sanders is still a strong favourite.
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1232513600822169601?s=19
PS: we don't have many weeks when one or other of them are not up for one of your claims, most swept under the carpet by compliant media. All you mention are de rigueur for Tory politicians.
https://www.gloscricket.co.uk/news/steve-smith-named-welsh-fire-captain-for-the-hundred/
But that would be sensible and will therefore not happen.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-26/what-its-like-in-italys-coronavirus-epicentre/12000700
Nor do I want to be rich. That attracts attention and hangers-on. I want comfort and peace.
So I’d say a low six-figure salary for a numbers of years, followed by very decent pension, would do the trick. Own home, perhaps a timeshare somewhere else, and able to go on holiday whenever you want. Well off and comfortable.
What more do you need?
I’m up for that because I much prefer calling it Bombay as an English speaker anyway, we don’t call Vienna “Wien”, for example.
I’m not sure if it means anything.
Kamala Harris and Stacey Abrams are both currently at 1000 (Adams only presidential market) and worth a couple of quid perhaps ?
I have that sort of money and lifestyle, but do not think of myself as rich, but of course I am!
It breaks down when it narrows to just partisan activists on either side voting for their favourite ideologues, as then there’s a big disconnect between voters and activists, who just double down on the basis someone must win.
For over forty years La Grande Vadrouille was the most successful French film in France, topping the box office with over 17,200,000 cinema admissions. It remains the fifth most successful film ever in France (on the basis of admissions), of any nationality, behind the 1997 version of Titanic, French hits Bienvenue chez les Ch'tis (2008) and Intouchables (2011), which were seen by over 19,000,000 cinemagoers and Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs.[2][3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Grande_Vadrouille
Although I might have gone for parentheses in that one.
Time to defrost the car. Have a good morning.
Apple's iPhone 12 Preparations May Be Delayed Due to Coronavirus Travel Restrictions
https://www.macrumors.com/2020/02/25/apple-coronavirus-travel-restrictions-iphone-12/
In other news, empirical evidence that rich drivers tend to be assholes:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drivers-of-expensive-cars-are-more-dangerous-to-pedestrians-m0nbmzk80
I'm not.
https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1232295142041817088?s=20
https://twitter.com/RaoulRuparel/status/1232295143568543745?s=20
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
Instead of shaking hands during the Sign of the Peace, we are advised to wave at each other.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/keir-starmer-huffpost-interview-bigger-the-win-the-better_uk_5e5516e4c5b6ad3de384561c?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvL0g4NkNiem5xT28_YW1wPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAM2Gy4EjtuoKMRql3Cw-SP7iq06peu6h0sueJ_fMwZDHQVpFfI2h8WiHBuznwGO094MPNUv7AbQUqo8vE76OIH7HY9tnT6vu2V0DRTSPkaleynzy2kLwNNOAjLGK9T4CSXY3p23YUo9RvP_ihzVRJSSuN7gAqVdg_mWFBAESHNsJ
I think I'd rate the candidates' chances against Trump something like:
Biden: 55% chance
Bernie: 40% chance
Bloomberg: 30% chance
...but that's given a clean process. If Bernie wins a decent-sized plurality and the convention gives it to Biden or Bloomberg instead, knock off at least 5%, maybe more.
With a bit of hard work and talent anyone aspiring to the top of a professional career could aspire to get to a 100-150k salary as a senior consultant or director after a 20-30 year career.
You’d have no mass asset wealth or inherited money, you’d just be earning a very good salary.
That isn’t rich. Rich means you don’t have to work at all and can live (very well) off asset and investment income alone.
It really is time to enter headless chicken mode!
But if we take our current best estimate it will virtually certainly overwhelm health care systems across the globe. The response will be a crisis in civil society, a break down in law and order, the destruction of whole swathes of the economy and a fundamental shift in the way that life currently exists.
Apart from that, nothing. There are lots of other things which I don't want to think about at the moment.
You want all that in perpetuity? Let's hope not.
Anyway the example is not the best formulation for this content. Giving just the list of films first and then giving the details of which were French, and with the box office figures in a following sentence, would make it considerably easier to understand.
The Indians all use use old names, even Mumbai airport is still BOM on your ticket.
https://www.fox7austin.com/news/travis-county-on-track-to-shatter-record-for-voter-turnout
Gee I can't possibly think who they might vote for there.
"Mr. Bloomberg joined in, saying of Mr. Sanders: “Can anybody in this room imagine moderate Republicans going over and voting for him?” "
That is the key question. I am pretty sure we know the answer.