Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Charleston debate: The betting verdict

12346»

Comments

  • Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:
    His numbers must be looking very good indeed to be spending that sort of internal political capital within Labour already.
    Is what I thought. RLB really could finish third.
    At various Labour leadership events I’ve been to, I’ve had complete strangers coming up to me to tell me they simply want to “stop Becky”, and asking me who I’m voting for.
    She makes Richard Burgon look impressive.
  • NEW THREAD

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    HYUFD said:

    Corbyn has given up. His performance just now was petulant and pathetic. Johnson does bluster but he isn't put under pressure by Corbyn making ad hominem attacks and not asking serious questions.

    Why was he allowed to stay on do long?

    Agreed. There is absolutely no need for the voting process to take a month. Everyone has already made up their minds.
    Howard stayed on 7 months after he lost the 2005 general election until Cameron was elected the new Tory leader
    That may be true, but with the local elections being in early May, it would have been much better to allow the new leader to have more time to find their feet. Especially as the elections are concentrated on Labour heartlands.
    Not really - the timing might well make a post leadership bounce more likely for the May elections.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Also at only 27% the Never have another IndyRef is below my assumed 35% floor for hard core Yoonary.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,130
    HYUFD said:
    This is a crucial question. It basically comes down to who do you believe?
    Republicans who say they'll vote for Biden/Democrats who say they'll vote for Trump IF It's Bernie.... or young people who say Bernie or bust.

    One thing the analysis doesn't seem to consider is where these voters are.
    If we look at US states with younger populations, they look to be fairly uncompetitive (I'm using median age as a proxy): Utah, DC, Alaska, ND but also Texas. I do wonder about Texas....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    HYUFD said:
    In that case why not stop all North Eastern former Miners (like Ian Lavery) who might have voted Conservative in 2019 ever voting Labour again. So a RBL leadership victory should do the trick.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,014
    Selebian said:



    You know, now that we (PBers in general) are spending less time arguing about Brexit, I've come to realise that @Philip_Thompson and I have much more in common than I thought.

    Maybe 'getting Brexit done' really will bring the country back together and heal divisions :wink:

    Nah. It will be utter shite, and we will have a culture war.
  • Just popped into my local council and they’re carrying out a “mass fatalities training programme”.

    With every day that passes it looks more and more as if this apparently over the top reaction could really be necessary.

    One of the commentaries on the Spanish Flu of 1918 was very relevant. At the time is was seen as something of a joke - it was apparently named after a third rate music hall act and the parallel meant it wasn't really taken seriously. It wasn't until well after it had passed and they began to collate the statistics that they realised just how serious it had been.

    A couple of days ago I had a personal indirect interaction with someone heavily involved with SARS in Hong Kong. This person received recognition for what she did to alleviate the suffering and her hard work in a hospital over there. Some of her colleagues died of the disease and she displayed some of the symptoms but did not become seriously ill. Those of us who post here like to think we are reasonably well informed about current events but this degree of personal suffering had not really entered my consciousness.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,759
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    ydoethur said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Why is no-one talking about the anti-Muslim pogroms in India right now? Police standing by while innocent victims are beaten. This could easily spiral into genocide.

    I’m afraid the honest answer is probably because the British media has little or no interest in India. I only found out about it a few minutes ago, after three days. It certainly sounds extremely grim.
    The anti Muslim Modi mobs have going on for months now.
    I don’t know why but anyway I meet from Bombay calls it Bombay, not Mumbai.

    I’m up for that because I much prefer calling it Bombay as an English speaker anyway, we don’t call Vienna “Wien”, for example.

    I’m not sure if it means anything.
    I don’t think I’ve ever had a Chicken Chennai for dinner.

    The Indians all use use old names, even Mumbai airport is still BOM on your ticket.
    That doesn't mean much, Ho Chin Min City is still SGN too.

    Nobody calls Harare "Salisbury" any more.
    I do. Rhodesia never dies.
    That’s a bit weird, even in jest

    It’s a matter of courtesy. If the government of somewhere changes its name then it’s polite to follow.

    Hence Beijing, Mumbai, Derry etc
    They haven't changed their names (London/Derry excepted) - the names are the same. Beijing for Peking, Mumbai for Bombay, Kolkata for Calcutta, are just ham-fisted attempts to get 'closer' phonetically to the native pronunciation. In some cases it's not even much closer. I believe the Chinese pronunciation of their capital city is about equidistant between Peking and Beijing.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,276
    rkrkrk said:

    This is a crucial question. It basically comes down to who do you believe?
    Republicans who say they'll vote for Biden/Democrats who say they'll vote for Trump IF It's Bernie.... or young people who say Bernie or bust.

    One thing the analysis doesn't seem to consider is where these voters are.
    If we look at US states with younger populations, they look to be fairly uncompetitive (I'm using median age as a proxy): Utah, DC, Alaska, ND but also Texas. I do wonder about Texas....

    Yes, Texas. In my model that goes Dem this time. Gosh.
This discussion has been closed.