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Ooh, an SNP civil war over a marginal seat selection.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
This is going to be like like watching the feminists and the trans activists having a discussion over Labour Party policy - something best done from as far away as possible!0 -
I offer 1860 - four candidates, two from one party. Ended in a civil war.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
I also offer 1805, when the Vice President murdered the former Secretary to the Treasury.
Honourable mentions -1920, Harding (worst speaker ever) up against Cox (who lost by 26 points) and Debs (who was in prison for sedition at the time). Also 1968 - one assassination, one popular winner disallowed in favour of a party hack, one criminal elected and chaos breaking out everywhere, plus a major unwinnable war in Vietnam.0 -
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:0 -
For the benefit of OGH, can I hurriedly point out the answer to the question is ‘no?’NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Perhaps the Democrats need a Corbyn 2019 style humiliation to begin the road back To sanity ?
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Massive win for Sanders and really, is it not all over? I can't see any of the current field giving him a real challenge on Super Tuesday. Which leaves Bloomberg and his big money operation. I really can't think of anything that Sanders will be happier running against than a self indulgent and fairly rigid billionaire trying to buy the nomination. Its set up for him. By not winnowing the field more effectively the moderates have lost. Yet more self indulgence.
So Sanders v Trump. My money is on Trump but I take Nick's point. I know diddly squat about what makes Americans vote the way they do.1 -
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.0 -
Robertson is proxy Sturgeon, Cherry is Salmonite.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Salmonites think Nicla is being too cautious re Indy ref 2.
Neither wing gives a monkeys about the domestic agenda.1 -
Whilst I was in the US I read an interesting book called ‘White Trash’ which, despite its tabloid-ish title, was actually a serious history book arguing that the image of settlers all claiming their acre of land and founding a classless, democratic society where any of them might make it to the top, which permeates the American dream, is almost entirely a myth.Foxy said:
I think accusations of hypocrisy are a particularly British obsession, Americans are less bothered.ydoethur said:
Depends on whether he tells them they can’t have three houses as well.NickPalmer said:
Do Americans resent someone having 3 houses? We were telling each other a few days ago that they didn't mind billionaires, and a few million will get you 3 nice rural places in the States. As for what he said in 1988 about the Soviet Union (which disappeared soon after), do voters under 50 care?ydoethur said:
If it becomes a referendum on his three houses and his praise for the Soviet system on his visit there in 1988, however...Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.
I don’t think anyone would have objected to Labour’s policies on private schools had not a large chunk of the Shadow Cabinet and a very high proportion of their children been privately educated.
People don’t mind wealth and success nearly as much as they do hypocrisy.
Americans are rarely embarrassed by wealth, though do quite like a backstory of humble origins as that validates the idea of the American Dream.
She (the professor author) looks at the white settlers that came over, many as indentured servants only marginally better off than slaves during their indenture, and the wealthy families mostly from Britain who instantly took up power and most of the land, and argues that American society was stratified into privilege and servitude from the very beginning. In later chapters she goes on to argue that social mobility within the US was and remains pretty limited,0 -
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.2 -
Very interesting, particularly as the USA has such strong mythologising about its origins and destiny.IanB2 said:
Whilst I was in the US I read an interesting book called ‘White Trash’ which, despite its tabloid-ish title, was actually a serious history book arguing that the image of settlers all claiming their acre of land and founding a classless, democratic society where any of them might make it to the top, which permeates the American dream, is almost entirely a myth.Foxy said:
I think accusations of hypocrisy are a particularly British obsession, Americans are less bothered.ydoethur said:
Depends on whether he tells them they can’t have three houses as well.NickPalmer said:
Do Americans resent someone having 3 houses? We were telling each other a few days ago that they didn't mind billionaires, and a few million will get you 3 nice rural places in the States. As for what he said in 1988 about the Soviet Union (which disappeared soon after), do voters under 50 care?ydoethur said:
If it becomes a referendum on his three houses and his praise for the Soviet system on his visit there in 1988, however...Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.
I don’t think anyone would have objected to Labour’s policies on private schools had not a large chunk of the Shadow Cabinet and a very high proportion of their children been privately educated.
People don’t mind wealth and success nearly as much as they do hypocrisy.
Americans are rarely embarrassed by wealth, though do quite like a backstory of humble origins as that validates the idea of the American Dream.
She (the professor author) looks at the white settlers that came over, many as indentured servants only marginally better off than slaves during their indenture, and the wealthy families mostly from Britain who instantly took up power and most of the land, and argues that American society was stratified into privilege and servitude from the very beginning. In later chapters she goes on to argue that social mobility within the US was and remains pretty limited,
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Most nominees prefer a boring VP. Especially after Cheney.NickPalmer said:Interesting exchange with Warren:
In Seattle, she addressed a crowd of around 7,000. A supporter asked her who she’d choose as a running mate if she were nominated.
“I would be presumptuous at this moment to talk about it, but what I can do is describe,” she said. “That is, I want to partner in this fight. That’s it.”
I know she was being asked who she'd like as her Number 2. But her response suggests she might be up for being VP herself. That would double down on the "change" message. But I think Sanders might be better off with Klobouchar, giving mid-West, moderate and gender balance.0 -
There is general agreement that Bernie as the nominee would make Trump’s reelection in November almost almost inevitable.
Minority Report.0 -
ydoethur , it is just rounders for adults, go on admit it.ydoethur said:
Not debateable, Malc. Even I can play rounders, so it’s not a sport.malcolmg said:ydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Debatable if rounders is a real sportydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Cricket, on the other hand...0 -
Bernie's USP has always been authenticity. He's always spouted what he does now, and his supporters love his consistency. He's always railed against "millionaires and billionaires". It's been noticed by everyone that he dropped the "millionaires" part. As Bloomberg noted, their favorite socialist is a millionaire with 3 homes - or 2 and a 'summer camp'. It smacks of hypocrisy and being part of the swamp. It is certainly a negative, but unlikely to make much difference in his support.Foxy said:
I think accusations of hypocrisy are a particularly British obsession, Americans are less bothered.ydoethur said:
Depends on whether he tells them they can’t have three houses as well.NickPalmer said:
Do Americans resent someone having 3 houses? We were telling each other a few days ago that they didn't mind billionaires, and a few million will get you 3 nice rural places in the States. As for what he said in 1988 about the Soviet Union (which disappeared soon after), do voters under 50 care?ydoethur said:
If it becomes a referendum on his three houses and his praise for the Soviet system on his visit there in 1988, however...Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.
I don’t think anyone would have objected to Labour’s policies on private schools had not a large chunk of the Shadow Cabinet and a very high proportion of their children been privately educated.
People don’t mind wealth and success nearly as much as they do hypocrisy.
Americans are rarely embarrassed by wealth, though do quite like a backstory of humble origins as that validates the idea of the American Dream.0 -
worst case they will be on the list anyway, crazy for Cherry just after being elected to Westminster. Looks like the two of them will be scrapping to be next leader for certain.Alistair said:
Assuming the Green doesn't stand again Ed Central is a shoo in for the SNP.No_Offence_Alan said:
Why are they fighting over Edinburgh Central. Surely Renfrewshire North and West would be a safer bet for one of them?ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Nah, there are six stumps in cricket.malcolmg said:
ydoethur , it is just rounders for adults, go on admit it.ydoethur said:
Not debateable, Malc. Even I can play rounders, so it’s not a sport.malcolmg said:ydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Debatable if rounders is a real sportydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Cricket, on the other hand...0 -
Cherry wants to be First Minister. She has identified opposing the GRA reform (a SNP manifesto commitment) as a wedge issue with which she can form a faction to build a power base to become FM.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
The SNP's stellar performance at the last Westminster General Election was a massive blow to her leadership campaign.0 -
I think you win that exchange!ydoethur said:
I offer 1860 - four candidates, two from one party. Ended in a civil war.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse state
I also offer 1805, when the Vice President murdered the former Secretary to the Treasury.
Honourable mentions -1920, Harding (worst speaker ever) up against Cox (who lost by 26 points) and Debs (who was in prison for sedition at the time). Also 1968 - one assassination, one popular winner disallowed in favour of a party hack, one criminal elected and chaos breaking out everywhere, plus a major unwinnable war in Vietnam.0 -
Stacy Abrams?NickPalmer said:Interesting exchange with Warren:
In Seattle, she addressed a crowd of around 7,000. A supporter asked her who she’d choose as a running mate if she were nominated.
“I would be presumptuous at this moment to talk about it, but what I can do is describe,” she said. “That is, I want to partner in this fight. That’s it.”
I know she was being asked who she'd like as her Number 2. But her response suggests she might be up for being VP herself. That would double down on the "change" message. But I think Sanders might be better off with Klobouchar, giving mid-West, moderate and gender balance.0 -
SNP has more talent on show just for selection in one seat than all the unionist parties can raise in total.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
They really are buggering it up aren't they? The iron party discipline is disintegrating. Eek.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
In case you missed it yesterday, I did note that despite the SNP’s every effort to throw away their advantages Carlaw will simply not let them. He’ll find a way.malcolmg said:
SNP has more talent on show just for selection in one seat than all the unionist parties can raise in total.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
You're talking about baseball..malcolmg said:
ydoethur , it is just rounders for adults, go on admit it.ydoethur said:
Not debateable, Malc. Even I can play rounders, so it’s not a sport.malcolmg said:ydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Debatable if rounders is a real sportydoethur said:
Talking of sport, our young hopefuls Lawrence and Bracey have had a good Down Under so far - especially Lawrence.OldKingCole said:
TBH, that's probably enough. Not a 'sport' I follow, either.Alistair said:Clearly I know fuck all about boxing.
Cricket, on the other hand...0 -
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.2 -
LibDems have lost 1 in 4 of their voters at the General Election. Quite some personal vote Prime Minister Jo Swinson had.....dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1231503965994438657
With 2 parties having an interregnum, the Tories seem to be the beneficiaries.0 -
Oh, I agree that the American Dream is substantially a myth and that social mobility in the USA can be worse even than the UK. It is a particularly strong US myth though, so cannot be ignored.IanB2 said:
Whilst I was in the US I read an interesting book called ‘White Trash’ which, despite its tabloid-ish title, was actually a serious history book arguing that the image of settlers all claiming their acre of land and founding a classless, democratic society where any of them might make it to the top, which permeates the American dream, is almost entirely a myth.Foxy said:
I think accusations of hypocrisy are a particularly British obsession, Americans are less bothered.ydoethur said:
Depends on whether he tells them they can’t have three houses as well.NickPalmer said:
Do Americans resent someone having 3 houses? We were telling each other a few days ago that they didn't mind billionaires, and a few million will get you 3 nice rural places in the States. As for what he said in 1988 about the Soviet Union (which disappeared soon after), do voters under 50 care?ydoethur said:
If it becomes a referendum on his three houses and his praise for the Soviet system on his visit there in 1988, however...Kevin_McCandless said:
If Sanders turns the election into a referendum on the American health care system, as well as corporate tax rates, he has a decent shot. Not fantastic, but it's a Michigan friendly pitch.
I don’t think anyone would have objected to Labour’s policies on private schools had not a large chunk of the Shadow Cabinet and a very high proportion of their children been privately educated.
People don’t mind wealth and success nearly as much as they do hypocrisy.
Americans are rarely embarrassed by wealth, though do quite like a backstory of humble origins as that validates the idea of the American Dream.
She (the professor author) looks at the white settlers that came over, many as indentured servants only marginally better off than slaves during their indenture, and the wealthy families mostly from Britain who instantly took up power and most of the land, and argues that American society was stratified into privilege and servitude from the very beginning. In later chapters she goes on to argue that social mobility within the US was and remains pretty limited,
Despite what the SPADs and Mekon in number 10 thinks, inheriting wealth is a much better at predicting success in life than IQ.
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Johnson keeps blocking it...DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Well done, Nick. I try on this - I bust a gut - but people are far more likely to listen to you. Although TBH I rather want the consensus that Trump inevitably hammers Bernie to stay in place. All the better for betting and superforecasting against it. More profits. More kudos.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.0 -
That would seem massively more likely than Kolbuchar...kinabalu said:
Stacy Abrams?NickPalmer said:Interesting exchange with Warren:
In Seattle, she addressed a crowd of around 7,000. A supporter asked her who she’d choose as a running mate if she were nominated.
“I would be presumptuous at this moment to talk about it, but what I can do is describe,” she said. “That is, I want to partner in this fight. That’s it.”
I know she was being asked who she'd like as her Number 2. But her response suggests she might be up for being VP herself. That would double down on the "change" message. But I think Sanders might be better off with Klobouchar, giving mid-West, moderate and gender balance.
I am not a pundit, but what I do know (is this), I am the only one on the debate stage when asked, 'Do you have a problem with a socialist leading the Democratic ticket?' ... (that said) 'Yes.' ...
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It is called competition , where do you get "civil war" from. Luckily the SNP have so much talent it is unlike the Westminster parties in not having to put up any old donkey or lickspittle chum they can drag of the streets.Sandpit said:
Ooh, an SNP civil war over a marginal seat selection.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
This is going to be like like watching the feminists and the trans activists having a discussion over Labour Party policy - something best done from as far away as possible!0 -
That is a top quality summary, David.DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.0 -
.DavidL said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
.
I thought Ruth had said she was standing down?
But also she only won the seat by the skin of her teeth with a Green standing who won thousands of votes so she hardly has a lock on the seat.
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Is it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1231491268309549056?s=090 -
Nick, all just sad unionist losers innuendo. Unlike the Westminster parties differences of opinions are allowed in SNP, it is not run as a dictatorship with you getting your jotters if you do not slavishly follow the turnip in charge. Basically unionists are fuming that the SNP keep getting more popular and people are not believing the lies from the unionist duffers and their tame MSM any more.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:0 -
The most obvious route was the EU. He certainly blocked that.ydoethur said:
Johnson keeps blocking it...DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:2 -
pm a libellous one please, I have yet to see anythingydoethur said:
For the benefit of OGH, can I hurriedly point out the answer to the question is ‘no?’NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Johnson = TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
Labour = Sanders
So not absurd unless one is a fawning disciple of Johnson.0 -
Why’s that astonishing? They wouldn’t be showing much intelligence if they trusted a woman who was sacked from the cabinet for lying, now would they?Foxy said:
Is it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1231491268309549056?s=090 -
It is not that bad for surenichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.0 -
Which candidate do you favour Malc?malcolmg said:
It is called competition , where do you get "civil war" from. Luckily the SNP have so much talent it is unlike the Westminster parties in not having to put up any old donkey or lickspittle chum they can drag of the streets.Sandpit said:
Ooh, an SNP civil war over a marginal seat selection.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
This is going to be like like watching the feminists and the trans activists having a discussion over Labour Party policy - something best done from as far away as possible!0 -
I'm on Abrams at 10. Fun bet only though. Just a few quid. You want to balance the ticket but also be sympatico with your running mate.Nigelb said:That would seem massively more likely than Kolbuchar...
I am not a pundit, but what I do know (is this), I am the only one on the debate stage when asked, 'Do you have a problem with a socialist leading the Democratic ticket?' ... (that said) 'Yes.' ...
Hey, you're not one of these "Trump crushes Sanders because Johnson crushed Corbyn" merchants, are you? Please say you aren't.0 -
Carcrash was a great choice for the talentless Scottish sub regional office Tories. That anyone could think that clown could ever be FM is just amazing, the idiot could not run a bath.ydoethur said:
In case you missed it yesterday, I did note that despite the SNP’s every effort to throw away their advantages Carlaw will simply not let them. He’ll find a way.malcolmg said:
SNP has more talent on show just for selection in one seat than all the unionist parties can raise in total.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
I don’t think anything is inevitable (and I put money on Sanders for President last night, as the odds provide value); I just think Sanders gives Trump a better chance. And just as importantly, gives the Republicans a significantly better chance of holding the Senate.kinabalu said:
Well done, Nick. I try on this - I bust a gut - but people are far more likely to listen to you. Although TBH I rather want the consensus that Trump inevitably hammers Bernie to stay in place. All the better for betting and superforecasting against it. More profits. More kudos.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.
As for Nick’s critique, I’d note that @rcs1000 , among others, said Sanders ought to favourite well before Nevada - and the value some of us have seen has been genuine value, as long odds have provided excellent trading opportunities.
On the larger point, he is not wrong, though.
1 -
She has said that she was standing down at the next election, not imminently. If Boris appoints her to the Lords she has a good precedent in Salmond who was an MP and MSP at the same time (twice, as I recall). If, however, she was appointed Scottish Secretary I think there would be a bye election. And I agree that her's was a remarkable and unexpected win. The Tories would not be favourites to keep the seat.Alistair said:
.DavidL said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
.
I thought Ruth had said she was standing down?
But also she only won the seat by the skin of her teeth with a Green standing who won thousands of votes so she hardly has a lock on the seat.0 -
Bitter remainers trying to paint Boris as Trump is all they have leftnichomar said:
Johnson = TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
Labour = Sanders
So not absurd unless one is a fawning disciple of Johnson.0 -
Is Trump a bitter remainer?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bitter remainers trying to paint Boris as Trump is all they have leftnichomar said:
Johnson = TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
Labour = Sanders
So not absurd unless one is a fawning disciple of Johnson.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-49090804/trump-on-johnson-they-call-him-britain-trump2 -
One might hear similar sentiments from Trump supporters...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bitter remainers trying to paint Boris as Trump is all they have leftnichomar said:
Johnson = TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
Labour = Sanders
So not absurd unless one is a fawning disciple of Johnson.
0 -
ydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
Many thanks for your concern. I am as red on Sanders as a very red thing.
Looks like I am going to take a beating. Just can't believe Dems are this stupid.
I am beginning to wonder whether USA is having a massive collective breakdown.0 -
That was discussed on Marr this morning and Marr himself said it was a good ideaFoxy said:
Is it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1231491268309549056?s=090 -
David, Mackay was always a lightweight, how he ever got to where he was is a mystery. He was never ever going to be leader in a month of Sundays for many reasons including serious lack of talent and charisma.DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.
PS: Robertson is the next leader as long as he does not just show himself as a clone of Sturgeon. He has far more talent but people are getting fed up and beginning to think current leadership are getting fat and happy with the current status quo.0 -
Given the next election is little more than a year away its six of one and half a dozen of another to me as to when the vacancy occurs.DavidL said:
She has said that she was standing down at the next election, not imminently. If Boris appoints her to the Lords she has a good precedent in Salmond who was an MP and MSP at the same time (twice, as I recall). If, however, she was appointed Scottish Secretary I think there would be a bye election. And I agree that her's was a remarkable and unexpected win. The Tories would not be favourites to keep the seat.Alistair said:
.DavidL said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
.
I thought Ruth had said she was standing down?
But also she only won the seat by the skin of her teeth with a Green standing who won thousands of votes so she hardly has a lock on the seat.0 -
Unfortunately Sanders is going to get trounced like Corbyn but people such as your good self won't see it till it is too late so we will end up with Johnson and Trump.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.0 -
England Lions doing very well here. Australia A four down with 201 needed to save the follow on.
I am sure that Henriques will score a century just to frustrate us, but it’s nice while it lasts.0 -
The ex MP loser who knew about Salmond but was too loyal to report vs the female lawyer who is outraged he has even been charged.malcolmg said:
SNP has more talent on show just for selection in one seat than all the unionist parties can raise in total.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
They certainly have a talent for something..0 -
That the security services do not trust the Home Sec?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was discussed on Marr this morning and Marr himself said it was a good ideaFoxy said:
Is it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1231491268309549056?s=09
I suspect not the only one at the heart of government who cannot be trusted with official intelligence.0 -
Yes they are really struggling , 48 out of 59 MP's, polls showing over 50% support for upcoming Holyrood elections and another landslide , and they are doing it deliberately.Luckyguy1983 said:
They really are buggering it up aren't they? The iron party discipline is disintegrating. Eek.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
The answering questions zone?TGOHF666 said:0 -
I wonder what excuses the AJ camp will come up with to avoid fighting Fury.2
-
Dominic Cummings was never entrusted with intelligence either, right from birth.Foxy said:
That the security services do not trust the Home Sec?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was discussed on Marr this morning and Marr himself said it was a good ideaFoxy said:
Is it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1231491268309549056?s=09
I suspect not the only one at the heart of government who cannot be trusted with official intelligence.
I have an organ to play with. Have a good morning.0 -
I agree about his lack of talent but he was the man in position, in the Parliament, Financial Secretary and apparently Nicola's chosen one.malcolmg said:
David, Mackay was always a lightweight, how he ever got to where he was is a mystery. He was never ever going to be leader in a month of Sundays for many reasons including serious lack of talent and charisma.DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.
The fact he rose so high rather undermines your argument about the SNP having an excess of talent. They are actually stronger in Westminster and Robertson is highly competent but the current Scottish government is just embarrassingly inept. As is the opposition in fairness. Scotland is very poorly governed with no obvious alternative. It's a problem.0 -
It’s nothing to do with remain or leave it’s taking a cold detached look at the individuals involved who share many character traits and political tactics.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bitter remainers trying to paint Boris as Trump is all they have leftnichomar said:
Johnson = TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
Labour = Sanders
So not absurd unless one is a fawning disciple of Johnson.0 -
Buttigieg has been value. He had almost no chance a few months ago. Now he is second in delegates.kinabalu said:
Well done, Nick. I try on this - I bust a gut - but people are far more likely to listen to you. Although TBH I rather want the consensus that Trump inevitably hammers Bernie to stay in place. All the better for betting and superforecasting against it. More profits. More kudos.NickPalmer said:A delicate point - could it be that PB collectively isn't very good at current US politics? There has been something of a consensus on here successively that Buttigieg, Warren and Klobouchar were value, and they're all going down in flames. Conversely, because of our UK bias we tend to think Sanders=Corbyn=defeat, and US politics is subtly different to the UK. US voters don't seem to mind elderly politicians (the issue is barely coming up) and despite months of Sanders being labelled as a crazy commie, he actually performs slightly better than most of the others in polls vs Trump.
I worry on his behalf too about the impact of full-fat Trump assault on him if he's the nominee. But it's possible that (a) ANY Democrat will struggle vs Trump and (b) Sanders' macho working-class appeal (he does best among men and among less-educated voters) is what's needed to take on Trump, rather than the more elegant appeal of, say, Buttigieg.
I think Sanders does need good advice on tempering his health care plan to make it clear that he won't scrap private plans until Medicare for All is in place (which frankly might be never if Congress doesn't change radically), but reports from Nevada (where the issue featured in a big way with a prominent union defending their private plan) suggest that people aren't impressed with the cost and limitations of their private health care, so it may not be the killer argument tat we suppose.0 -
Maybe they should do their day job which they are failing at rather than internal fighting over power basesmalcolmg said:
David, Mackay was always a lightweight, how he ever got to where he was is a mystery. He was never ever going to be leader in a month of Sundays for many reasons including serious lack of talent and charisma.DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.
PS: Robertson is the next leader as long as he does not just show himself as a clone of Sturgeon. He has far more talent but people are getting fed up and beginning to think current leadership are getting fat and happy with the current status quo.
The next month looks like a shambles for the SNP and will Nicola survive0 -
Is Angus trying to get back as an MSP to give the SNP options when they need to replace Sturgeon.malcolmg said:
Yes they are really struggling , 48 out of 59 MP's, polls showing over 50% support for upcoming Holyrood elections and another landslide , and they are doing it deliberately.Luckyguy1983 said:
They really are buggering it up aren't they? The iron party discipline is disintegrating. Eek.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
Otherwise this makes little sense...0 -
She will not embarrass herself by being trounced, it will be the easy lucrative option via the arse lickers route to HoL for her. No need for scrutiny by electorate, she will use old boy network.Alistair said:
.DavidL said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
.
I thought Ruth had said she was standing down?
But also she only won the seat by the skin of her teeth with a Green standing who won thousands of votes so she hardly has a lock on the seat.0 -
And malcolm thinks he understands the sport...ydoethur said:
But before I go - Henriques out. I’ve still got it.ydoethur said:England Lions doing very well here. Australia A four down with 201 needed to save the follow on.
I am sure that Henriques will score a century just to frustrate us, but it’s nice while it lasts. 0 -
Nicola has supported two deeply flawed individuals - is she corrupt or deeply naive ?DavidL said:
I agree about his lack of talent but he was the man in position, in the Parliament, Financial Secretary and apparently Nicola's chosen one.malcolmg said:
David, Mackay was always a lightweight, how he ever got to where he was is a mystery. He was never ever going to be leader in a month of Sundays for many reasons including serious lack of talent and charisma.DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.
The fact he rose so high rather undermines your argument about the SNP having an excess of talent. They are actually stronger in Westminster and Robertson is highly competent but the current Scottish government is just embarrassingly inept. As is the opposition in fairness. Scotland is very poorly governed with no obvious alternative. It's a problem.0 -
Yes, money was to be made going in and out of him at the right times.rottenborough said:Buttigieg has been value. He had almost no chance a few months ago. Now he is second in delegates.
0 -
-
Does this mean that the SNP honeymoon is over?Luckyguy1983 said:
They really are buggering it up aren't they? The iron party discipline is disintegrating. Eek.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Of course not, the pairing down of the adviceFoxy said:
That the security services do not trust the Home Sec?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was discussed on Marr this morning and Marr himself said it was a good ideaFoxy said:
Is it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1231491268309549056?s=09
I suspect not the only one at the heart of government who cannot be trusted with official intelligence.0 -
Yes. It's a race back to Edinburgh to be in place when the fall happens. It sort of reminds me of those Nazgols in Lord of the Rings racing back to Mount Doom when they realise Frodo has dropped the ring in the volcano.eek said:
Is Angus trying to get back as an MSP to give the SNP options when they need to replace Sturgeon.malcolmg said:
Yes they are really struggling , 48 out of 59 MP's, polls showing over 50% support for upcoming Holyrood elections and another landslide , and they are doing it deliberately.Luckyguy1983 said:
They really are buggering it up aren't they? The iron party discipline is disintegrating. Eek.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
Otherwise this makes little sense...2 -
Of course it is. If Boris was an ardent fan of the EU you would be singing his praisesnichomar said:
It’s nothing to do with remain or leave it’s taking a cold detached look at the individuals involved who share many character traits and political tactics.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bitter remainers trying to paint Boris as Trump is all they have leftnichomar said:
Johnson = TrumpBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is plainly absurdnichomar said:
It’s no worse than the UK!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has US politics ever been in a worse stateydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House.
Labour = Sanders
So not absurd unless one is a fawning disciple of Johnson.0 -
Im seeing Lisa Nandy speak this afternoon in Newcastle. Will report back.1
-
Pulpstar said:
I say this because they are a similar price. Buttigieg will fly out in SC I thinkPulpstar said:Biden can come back in SC off the back of this, Buttigieg's black voter numbers are going to bury him there
Yep. Pete, has been very honest about his performances not being good enough so farPulpstar said:
I say this because they are a similar price. Buttigieg will fly out in SC I thinkPulpstar said:Biden can come back in SC off the back of this, Buttigieg's black voter numbers are going to bury him there
But even if he drops out after SC, I'm not sure most of his voters will go to Biden, I think a lot of them will go to Warren who attracts a lot of college educated whites.
As a side it is interesting how many poc in the dem Primaries identify as moderate/conservative vs.whites
https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/12313202972504023050 -
I wouldn't masquerade as a regular Boris supporter, but in fairness he's perfectly capable of mastering a complex brief if he wants to. He rang me out of the blue (in my day job capacity) when he was preparing to stand for the leadership to ask for a briefing on live exports, as he was going to write a Telegraph piece on the issue. We talked for about 15 minutes on the detail and it all appeared a couple of days later, entirely accurately summarised.ydoethur said:
The difference from Mrs T is perhaps that she positively liked absorbing lots of detail about everything, whereas he is, I think, somewhat more selective.3 -
I like both, but Robertson is my favourite for next SNP leader, unless Alex could make a comeback which is highly unlikely.Luckyguy1983 said:
Which candidate do you favour Malc?malcolmg said:
It is called competition , where do you get "civil war" from. Luckily the SNP have so much talent it is unlike the Westminster parties in not having to put up any old donkey or lickspittle chum they can drag of the streets.Sandpit said:
Ooh, an SNP civil war over a marginal seat selection.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
This is going to be like like watching the feminists and the trans activists having a discussion over Labour Party policy - something best done from as far away as possible!
He looks and talks the part.0 -
Que HYFUD stating their vote slipped in nineteen canteen or some such.Theuniondivvie said:
Does this mean that the SNP honeymoon is over?Luckyguy1983 said:
They really are buggering it up aren't they? The iron party discipline is disintegrating. Eek.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:0 -
For sure he wants to be next leader and FM.eek said:
Is Angus trying to get back as an MSP to give the SNP options when they need to replace Sturgeon.malcolmg said:
Yes they are really struggling , 48 out of 59 MP's, polls showing over 50% support for upcoming Holyrood elections and another landslide , and they are doing it deliberately.Luckyguy1983 said:
They really are buggering it up aren't they? The iron party discipline is disintegrating. Eek.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
Otherwise this makes little sense...0 -
Cherry would be a good leader in my opinion.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes. It's a race back to Edinburgh to be in place when the fall happens. It sort of reminds me of those Nazgols in Lord of the Rings racing back to Mount Doom when they realise Frodo has dropped the ring in the volcano.eek said:
Is Angus trying to get back as an MSP to give the SNP options when they need to replace Sturgeon.malcolmg said:
Yes they are really struggling , 48 out of 59 MP's, polls showing over 50% support for upcoming Holyrood elections and another landslide , and they are doing it deliberately.Luckyguy1983 said:
They really are buggering it up aren't they? The iron party discipline is disintegrating. Eek.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
Otherwise this makes little sense...0 -
Convicts will now have the vote in Scotland malc - next step is to allow them to stand for office..malcolmg said:
unless Alex could make a comeback which is highly unlikely.Luckyguy1983 said:
Which candidate do you favour Malc?malcolmg said:
It is called competition , where do you get "civil war" from. Luckily the SNP have so much talent it is unlike the Westminster parties in not having to put up any old donkey or lickspittle chum they can drag of the streets.Sandpit said:
Ooh, an SNP civil war over a marginal seat selection.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
This is going to be like like watching the feminists and the trans activists having a discussion over Labour Party policy - something best done from as far away as possible!
.0 -
G, on almost every measure Scotland under the SNP is doing better than England despite all the obstacles flung at them, all this unionist crap about doing their day job is a real joke given the state of the UK and Boris in hiding.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe they should do their day job which they are failing at rather than internal fighting over power basesmalcolmg said:
David, Mackay was always a lightweight, how he ever got to where he was is a mystery. He was never ever going to be leader in a month of Sundays for many reasons including serious lack of talent and charisma.DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.
PS: Robertson is the next leader as long as he does not just show himself as a clone of Sturgeon. He has far more talent but people are getting fed up and beginning to think current leadership are getting fat and happy with the current status quo.
The next month looks like a shambles for the SNP and will Nicola survive0 -
rottenborough said:
But of course, if you have a dislike for the USA, and long for the decline and fall of the the US empire, what is there not to like about four more years? Look at the long term mess baby trump will make to the economy, the deficit and foreign affairs in those four more years 😁.rottenborough said:
The bottom line is people who are not Conservatives have taken over the Conservative vote. In the cold light of tomorrow history books will record this as the beginning of the end of Conservative dominance and the return to liberalism. 😌0 -
Would Sanders be a good president? If not, which Dem candidate would be better?rottenborough said:ydoethur said:
It’s @rottenborough i feel sorry for.Sandpit said:
Indeed, hence the market that’s 11% under-round. Sanders should be at least a 65% chance rather than 52%.ydoethur said:
Because they can’t quite believe the Dems would be so fucking stupid as to pick a 79 year old Socialist with a heart condition who isn’t even a Dem to go up against a nutcase like Trump that they really, really need to beat?Quincel said:I'm not the first to say this, but why does the market still have Sanders as almost evens?
Oh, and the rest of us at having the serious risk of four more years of this psychotic in the White House. Many thanks for your concern. I am as red on Sanders as a very red thing.
Looks like I am going to take a beating. Just can't believe Dems are this stupid.
I am beginning to wonder whether USA is having a massive collective breakdown.
Personally, I would say he would obviously be better than Trump, and probably better than most of the previous presidents. Which suggests that if they are having a breakdown it's been going on for quite some time.
0 -
I can absolutely see Salmond having the neck to come back as Leader, just to prove how much he has been vindicated by a Not Guilty verdict.malcolmg said:
I like both, but Robertson is my favourite for next SNP leader, unless Alex could make a comeback which is highly unlikely.Luckyguy1983 said:
Which candidate do you favour Malc?malcolmg said:
It is called competition , where do you get "civil war" from. Luckily the SNP have so much talent it is unlike the Westminster parties in not having to put up any old donkey or lickspittle chum they can drag of the streets.Sandpit said:
Ooh, an SNP civil war over a marginal seat selection.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
This is going to be like like watching the feminists and the trans activists having a discussion over Labour Party policy - something best done from as far away as possible!
He looks and talks the part.
He probably has enough neck if it comes back Not Proven.....0 -
Apart from secondary education, hospital building, bridge building and ferry building.malcolmg said:
G, on almost every measure Scotland under the SNP is doing better than England despite all the obstacles flung at them, all this unionist crap about doing their day job is a real joke given the state of the UK and Boris in hiding.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Maybe they should do their day job which they are failing at rather than internal fighting over power basesmalcolmg said:
David, Mackay was always a lightweight, how he ever got to where he was is a mystery. He was never ever going to be leader in a month of Sundays for many reasons including serious lack of talent and charisma.DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.
PS: Robertson is the next leader as long as he does not just show himself as a clone of Sturgeon. He has far more talent but people are getting fed up and beginning to think current leadership are getting fat and happy with the current status quo.
The next month looks like a shambles for the SNP and will Nicola survive
0 -
David, you always get a few lightweights and pet placements, just look at Westminster cabinet to see how bad it can really get. I am not a Sturgeon fan but the SNP are doing a far better job of running Scotland than their equivalent UK counterparts.DavidL said:
I agree about his lack of talent but he was the man in position, in the Parliament, Financial Secretary and apparently Nicola's chosen one.malcolmg said:
David, Mackay was always a lightweight, how he ever got to where he was is a mystery. He was never ever going to be leader in a month of Sundays for many reasons including serious lack of talent and charisma.DavidL said:
There have been rumours for some time that Nicola was looking for an international exit but not finding one. The SNP are split between those that want a referendum right now and those who want to do things properly with Westminster consent. The latter also recognise that right now might not be the best time and want a better indication than the polls are giving that a second referendum might pass.NickPalmer said:
Can anyone give (or link to) a non-libellous non-contempt-of-court summary of what's happening in Scottish politics? I know about the Salmond case, but have only vaguely heard some umours about Sturgeon, and there seems to be some factional rivalry in the SNP too. What's up?CarlottaVance said:
Nicola leads the second group but Boris's blunt responses are making her look weak. When you add in the speculation about the possible fall out of the trial possible leadership candidates are desperate to get into Holyrood. This is likely to result in a serious competition for Ruth's seat between Robertson (the wait candidate) and Cherry (a let's go candidate). Of course there may not be a vacancy. There is no reason why Ruth should stand down unless she not only went the House of Lords but also took a government post. That's possible but far from certain.
A further frisson has been added to all this by the departure of Derek Mackay. He was the obvious heir apparent and would have been very hard to stop if a vacancy had occurred. His departure leaves no obvious or strong candidate in the Parliament. It has stepped up the urgency for both wings.
The fact he rose so high rather undermines your argument about the SNP having an excess of talent. They are actually stronger in Westminster and Robertson is highly competent but the current Scottish government is just embarrassingly inept. As is the opposition in fairness. Scotland is very poorly governed with no obvious alternative. It's a problem.
SNP is much much bigger than Sturgeon.0 -
Well you know I'm not a bitter Remainer so let me give you my take -Big_G_NorthWales said:Bitter remainers trying to paint Boris as Trump is all they have left
Trump is a borderline moron and is wholly malevolent in spirit. Johnson is neither of those things. There is simply no comparison.
But a big thing they do have in common is being in politics purely for their own gratification - i.e. an absence of integrity or sense of public service.
And Johnson is certainly lifting some techniques from the Trump playbook.0 -
Far more likely it will be seen as humanity losing the last chance to avoid catastrophic global overheating and the collapse of civilization.egg said:rottenborough said:
But of course, if you have a dislike for the USA, and long for the decline and fall of the the US empire, what is there not to like about four more years? Look at the long term mess baby trump will make to the economy, the deficit and foreign affairs in those four more years 😁.rottenborough said:
The bottom line is people who are not Conservatives have taken over the Conservative vote. In the cold light of tomorrow history books will record this as the beginning of the end of Conservative dominance and the return to liberalism. 😌0 -
As a Unionist Robertson is the one I would fear. He would come closest to building the broader consensus that Salmond went for. Sturgeon has gone more to the left which has given the SNP control of the central belt (and hence the Scottish Parliament) but would struggle to get a majority for independence. I knew Cherry slightly during her time at the bar. She's not overly ebullient.malcolmg said:
I like both, but Robertson is my favourite for next SNP leader, unless Alex could make a comeback which is highly unlikely.Luckyguy1983 said:
Which candidate do you favour Malc?malcolmg said:
It is called competition , where do you get "civil war" from. Luckily the SNP have so much talent it is unlike the Westminster parties in not having to put up any old donkey or lickspittle chum they can drag of the streets.Sandpit said:
Ooh, an SNP civil war over a marginal seat selection.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
This is going to be like like watching the feminists and the trans activists having a discussion over Labour Party policy - something best done from as far away as possible!
He looks and talks the part.0 -
It's not surprising since she was sacked for running her own foreign policy with Israel from a different department.Foxy said:
That the security services do not trust the Home Sec?
.
The pb.com tories were mostly Maybots at that point and dutifully lined to up to stick the boot into Priti Woman with the same fervour with which they now salute her.3 -
Touch of green cheese there Harry, I presume neither of them are in the LOLTGOHF666 said:
The ex MP loser who knew about Salmond but was too loyal to report vs the female lawyer who is outraged he has even been charged.malcolmg said:
SNP has more talent on show just for selection in one seat than all the unionist parties can raise in total.ydoethur said:
Popcorn on standby...CarlottaVance said:
They certainly have a talent for something..0
This discussion has been closed.