politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bernie edges to odds-on for the nomination as the Nevada caucu
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@Big_G_NorthWales
You have no regrets...but you have posted here about your support for environmental issues....
Cruise ships dispose of a lot of waste and chemical by products into the sea...you wouldn't want your local council to just dump stuff....
Like Fox...I went on a small boat Nile cruise many years ago which I loved and still remember...but I couldn't do it now..no more than eat a steak.....
I've been to Vegas.... and New York many times....but I've changed, even these last couple of years. I haven't changed my iphones/MAC/tablet now for 2 years..I think about this stuff a lot more now
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Urban areas only so far?Chameleon said:A second in NV for Biden would be big, would put SC in the bag.
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The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.rottenborough said:Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.0 -
Given he's essentially already won there's little reason to disbelieve he means what he says.rottenborough said:0 -
What's this? Is Ronnie Campbell standing?rottenborough said:
If you think a bellowing, ranty, red faced N Eastern socialist can win against Trump then I have a dozen bridges to sell you :-)Mexicanpete said:
It does in the USA I am afraid.kinabalu said:
That Jeremy Corbyn failed to win an election here does not predestine the defeat of every radical left politician throughout the western world for the foreseeable future. He is just not that totemic.squareroot2 said:Thats what they said about Corbyn...
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I believe so, yes.rottenborough said:
Urban areas only so far?Chameleon said:A second in NV for Biden would be big, would put SC in the bag.
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4% of precincts in:
Sanders 33%
Biden 17%
Pete 15%
Warren 14%
Klobuchar 10%
(First choice vote, CBS just now)1 -
Go PeteQuincel said:
I believe so, yes.rottenborough said:
Urban areas only so far?Chameleon said:A second in NV for Biden would be big, would put SC in the bag.
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He would have more chance frankly. At least he's not a millionaire socialist to my knowledge.SandyRentool said:
What's this? Is Ronnie Campbell standing?rottenborough said:
If you think a bellowing, ranty, red faced N Eastern socialist can win against Trump then I have a dozen bridges to sell you :-)Mexicanpete said:
It does in the USA I am afraid.kinabalu said:
That Jeremy Corbyn failed to win an election here does not predestine the defeat of every radical left politician throughout the western world for the foreseeable future. He is just not that totemic.squareroot2 said:Thats what they said about Corbyn...
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Mmm, but you're shifting the argument. You were saying that cruise ships are full of pompous plutocrats. I said not in my limited experience, and you say ha, but it's the environment that I was thinking of. You should be a politician!tyson said:
Nick......you've not convinced me comrade....NickPalmer said:
It's not that bad! A friend who is a big fan perauded me to take one week-long cruise, and it was quite pleasant, with the usual mix of humanity - the star was a modest artist, who spent the whole trip sketching real and imagined maritime sights to amuse his grand-daughter when he arrived. I played a lot of bridge and did some dancing. I wouldn't do it again but it was a nice change.tyson said:
I like walking...I average over 21,500 steps per day...
You couldn't pay me to sit on a fucking cruise ship stuck with a bunch of Daily Mail reading grey heads stuffing their faces and professing their admiration for Boris Johnson...
Doubtless transporting 3000 by boat across the Atlantic by boat is better for the environment that a long haul flight...that is the kind of argument that washes with me and I was hoping Big_G to throw back...not the fact that you did a spot of dancing...
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Post of the day.glw said:
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.rottenborough said:Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.
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Trump will paint him (somewhat ironically re: Trump/Putin love-in) as a Soviet sympathiser.Gabs3 said:
Sanders is not nearly as left economically and he has consistently opposed autocratic regimes on right and left for 30 years.Mexicanpete said:
It does in the USA I am afraid.kinabalu said:
That Jeremy Corbyn failed to win an election here does not predestine the defeat of every radical left politician throughout the western world for the foreseeable future. He is just not that totemic.squareroot2 said:Thats what they said about Corbyn...
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Because there is no argument, he's just a hate-filled bigot.NickPalmer said:
Mmm, but you're shifting the argument. You were saying that cruise ships are full of pompous plutocrats. I said not in my limited experience, and you say ha, but it's the environment that I was thinking of. You should be a politician!tyson said:
Nick......you've not convinced me comrade....NickPalmer said:
It's not that bad! A friend who is a big fan perauded me to take one week-long cruise, and it was quite pleasant, with the usual mix of humanity - the star was a modest artist, who spent the whole trip sketching real and imagined maritime sights to amuse his grand-daughter when he arrived. I played a lot of bridge and did some dancing. I wouldn't do it again but it was a nice change.tyson said:
I like walking...I average over 21,500 steps per day...
You couldn't pay me to sit on a fucking cruise ship stuck with a bunch of Daily Mail reading grey heads stuffing their faces and professing their admiration for Boris Johnson...
Doubtless transporting 3000 by boat across the Atlantic by boat is better for the environment that a long haul flight...that is the kind of argument that washes with me and I was hoping Big_G to throw back...not the fact that you did a spot of dancing...0 -
Cruise ships are much more environmentally friendly and will continue to evolvetyson said:@Big_G_NorthWales
You have no regrets...but you have posted here about your support for environmental issues....
Cruise ships dispose of a lot of waste and chemical by products into the sea...you wouldn't want your local council to just dump stuff....
Like Fox...I went on a small boat Nile cruise many years ago which I loved and still remember...but I couldn't do it now..no more than eat a steak.....
I've been to Vegas.... and New York many times....but I've changed, even these last couple of years. I haven't changed my iphones/MAC/tablet now for 2 years..I think about this stuff a lot more now
We have done the Nile cruise with our children and it is a good example of cruising giving access to places and experiences, as was the case when we went to the Antarctic and Artic
I actually agree with some of your comments but making them political does reduce there effect0 -
Sadly, Corbyn has been a disaster for the Labour Party, but more importantly to being responsible for the situation now where we have the prospect of 10 years of rampant neoliberalism and all that it entails...it is difficult to imagine anyone who has been more disastrous to the cause of vulnerable people (and the environmental) in the UK than Jeremy Corbyn- possibly Len McCluskey...NickPalmer said:
I don't actually recall Corbyn ever making a personal criticism of Blair or Brown (or anyone else much, he doesn't do personality stuff), let alone working to undermine them. He obviously disagreed with them lots about issues (almost without exception without risk to the Government, as he wasn't rebelling on issues that the Tories opposed). To be fair to Butler (who I'm not putting high on my own paper) I don't think she'd expel someone for disagreeing with policies.rottenborough said:These people hated New Labour because it tried discipline over message.
Yet iirc not a single MP was suspended, even Corbyn, who may as well have been working for the Tories.
https://twitter.com/DawnButlerBrent/status/1231249349969137664
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Interesting difference in Sanders' support from Corbyn is that Corbyn did better with better-educated voters, while Sanders is very much the reverse:
https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200222-nevada/#entrance-polls-point-to-a-60
He's also scoring best among men. Arguably this augurs well for a battle with Trump for the Rust Belt.2 -
The best thing that could happen to the US right now would be for Sanders to have another heart attack leading him to withdraw his candidacy.eadric said:My God, are they really gonna nominate Sanders?
Is America determined to copy Britain in everything???
It is an almost magical phenomenon
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The fundamental problem the Dems have is that the primary electorate for their party is way way left of the general electorate.glw said:
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.rottenborough said:Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.2 -
Fox calls NV for Sanders1
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There's every reason to disbelieve him. Leaving aside the obvious facts that (a) he's a politician and (b) the votes have yet actually to be cast, there's nothing to be gained from telling the Corbyn cult (who now constitute the majority of the party membership) that most of their beliefs need to be moderated or ditched because the general electorate (whom they despise as bigoted and/or thick anyway) won't stomach them.kle4 said:
Given he's essentially already won there's little reason to disbelieve he means what he says.rottenborough said:
One assumes that his strategy for beating the far Left and turning the party around is of the frog in a slowly warming saucepan variety. How far he'll manage to get I don't know. Dealing with the completely bonkers tax and spending plans and even the anti-Semitism issue won't be nearly as hard as suppressing the total obsession with sectarian identity politics and Europe, which pervades even the surviving minority of the party that hasn't given in to the Stop the War tendency.0 -
He certainly seems to have the easiest path to nomination, and I get the impression the shift for mainstream democrats to fall in line shall not be far off. John Oliver did a recent bit on his Medicaid plans which was pretty token in any critique (I don't know if it is a good plan or not, but usually he raises more about criticisms by way of example even if he argues for it directly) for example. There could be a tipping point in his support.eadric said:My God, are they really gonna nominate Sanders?
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How do they know that large numbers of Trump supporters aren’t registering as Democrats for the primaries?0
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Looks that way. And they will get Trump and possible end of the Republic.eadric said:My God, are they really gonna nominate Sanders?
Is America determined to copy Britain in everything???
It is an almost magical phenomenon
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Is it too much to ask for them to raise their heads from their lovely pure navels and select someone who can win?Tim_B said:
The fundamental problem the Dems have is that the primary electorate for their party is way way left of the general electorate.glw said:
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.rottenborough said:Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.0 -
That could be the case, but you start off assuming you know his intention is to beat the far left and proceeding from there. Which again could be correct, but how do we know that to be true? If it isn't then everything else that flows from that assumption gets tossed.Black_Rook said:
There's every reason to disbelieve him. Leaving aside the obvious facts that (a) he's a politician and (b) the votes have yet actually to be cast, there's nothing to be gained from telling the Corbyn cult (who now constitute the majority of the party membership) that most of their beliefs need to be moderated or ditched because the general electorate (whom they despise as bigoted and/or thick anyway) won't stomach them.kle4 said:
Given he's essentially already won there's little reason to disbelieve he means what he says.rottenborough said:
One assumes that his strategy for beating the far Left and turning the party around is of the frog in a slowly warming saucepan variety. How far he'll manage to get I don't know. Dealing with the completely bonkers tax and spending plans and even the anti-Semitism issue won't be nearly as hard as suppressing the total obsession with sectarian identity politics and Europe, which pervades even the surviving minority of the party that hasn't given in to the Stop the War tendency.
Granted everyone involved is a politician, but I still tend to believe people mean what they say (even if it is stupid and contradictory) unless there's hard proof to the contrary.0 -
An absolute keeper.NickPalmer said:Interesting difference in Sanders' support from Corbyn is that Corbyn did better with better-educated voters, while Sanders is very much the reverse:
https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200222-nevada/#entrance-polls-point-to-a-60
He's also scoring best among men. Arguably this augurs well for a battle with Trump for the Rust Belt.
Sorry Nick.0 -
It is for a true believerrottenborough said:
Is it too much to ask for them to raise their heads from their lovely pure navels and select someone who can win?Tim_B said:
The fundamental problem the Dems have is that the primary electorate for their party is way way left of the general electorate.glw said:
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.rottenborough said:Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.0 -
The other candidates aren't making it hard for him though, are they?eadric said:My God, are they really gonna nominate Sanders?
Is America determined to copy Britain in everything???
It is an almost magical phenomenon
https://twitter.com/xeniaporvida/status/1231270547574677506?s=200 -
I thought the left were big fans of rehabilitation?Theuniondivvie said:
The other candidates aren't making it hard for though, are they?eadric said:My God, are they really gonna nominate Sanders?
Is America determined to copy Britain in everything???
It is an almost magical phenomenon
https://twitter.com/xeniaporvida/status/1231270547574677506?s=20
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No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
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One of the big questions is that Unions absolutely HATE Sanders Medicare for all plan. One of their big selling points is the gold plated health plans their members have. They would disappear under Sanders.1
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But, he got elected?kinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
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I seemed to remember people saying that in 2016...kinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
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What odds are you prepared to give on that? Small bet.kinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
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Somebody really has it in for Bloomberg. He is getting hit by the level of incoming that Trump got during 2016.0
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The amount of money he's raising, his audiences at this speeches queueing up the night before to get in, and his ratings improvement says you may well be incorrect.kinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
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It's easy enough in Nevada (https://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/regcur.aspx), but if it was happening on a large scale we'd be getting some specific reports, as we did here when a probably modest number of Tories mischievously voted for Corbyn in the leadership election.alex_ said:How do they know that large numbers of Trump supporters aren’t registering as Democrats for the primaries?
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The best comment I've heard about Bloomberg's debate performance is that he spent $400 million to get scalped by a fake Indian.FrancisUrquhart said:Somebody really has it in for Bloomberg. He is getting hit by the level of incoming that Trump got during 2016.
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The big thing Trump has going for him is the economy is doing pretty well. While the students might like the sound of free uni and recent graduates having all their debt written off by Sanders, I wonder like here is the middle aged and oldies want such a radical change.eadric said:
No, he's notkinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.0 -
As one who lives in the deep South, I would agree with your observation.eadric said:
No, he's notkinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.0 -
Ouch!Tim_B said:
The best comment I've heard about Bloomberg's debate performance is that he spent $400 million to get scalped by a fake Indian.FrancisUrquhart said:Somebody really has it in for Bloomberg. He is getting hit by the level of incoming that Trump got during 2016.
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This. A thousand times this.eadric said:
No, he's notkinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
Why do I wake at 4am in a cold sweat screaming McGovern?1 -
It certainly not looking like the best investment he has ever made.Tim_B said:
The best comment I've heard about Bloomberg's debate performance is that he spent $400 million to get scalped by a fake Indian.FrancisUrquhart said:Somebody really has it in for Bloomberg. He is getting hit by the level of incoming that Trump got during 2016.
But imagine what Zuckerberg had been like if he had decided to run!!!0 -
That anecdote would work much better if you were in a swing state rather than somewhere that voted for every Republican candidate in the last 20 years by a 40 point margin.eadric said:
No, he's notkinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.0 -
Just one example of how he will be burnt to pieces in the general.Tim_B said:One of the big questions is that Unions absolutely HATE Sanders Medicare for all plan. One of their big selling points is the gold plated health plans their members have. They would disappear under Sanders.
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Did you sleep through 2016 ?kinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
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Facebook would look very different?FrancisUrquhart said:
It certainly not looking like the best investment he has ever made.Tim_B said:
The best comment I've heard about Bloomberg's debate performance is that he spent $400 million to get scalped by a fake Indian.FrancisUrquhart said:Somebody really has it in for Bloomberg. He is getting hit by the level of incoming that Trump got during 2016.
But imagine what Zuckerberg had been like if he had decided to run!!!0 -
I
Douglas County. Buttigieg 57% 1 -
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RLB in third should be a reason for concern for Starmer. If Nandy gets the bulk of transfers it could be a close race.TGOHF666 said:0 -
Go Buttigieg!rottenborough said:I
Douglas County. Buttigieg 57%
Funny how looking across the Atlantic can make strange bedfellows. I can't imagine us both wanting the same person for PM, but I believe we both want the same one for President.0 -
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🤮eadric said:Look at this tweet about Sanders. It is Corbynism, word for word
https://twitter.com/lisapease/status/1231350640124649472?s=200 -
Oh God. It really is like watching a rerun of 2019. Still, all those young hipster Dems in college towns who are phone banking their little ears off for Sanders will sleep easy tonight knowing their man is a winner.eadric said:Look at this tweet about Sanders. It is Corbynism, word for word
https://twitter.com/lisapease/status/1231350640124649472?s=202 -
He does have a punchers chance, I suppose.Tim_B said:The amount of money he's raising, his audiences at this speeches queueing up the night before to get in, and his ratings improvement says you may well be incorrect.
But come the time I think a sufficient number of Americans will locate their marbles.0 -
https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/1231341535469416449?s=21rottenborough said:Thread of the evening...
https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/12313406429215989830 -
"Idiot identity politics" == saying slavery was bad.eadric said:
It doesn't matter where I said this, I am talking about educated white Americans who inexplicably (at the time, to me) voted for a deranged, declining fool like Trump. They did it because they think the Democrats are even crazier, with their idiot identity politics and elitist anti-patriotism.Alistair said:
That anecdote would work much better if you were in a swing state rather than somewhere that voted for every Republican candidate in the last 20 years by a 40 point margin.eadric said:
No, he's notkinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
If the Dems nominate Sanders then this perception will be reinforced, and Trump will probably win by a bigger margin.
There is an entire propoganda effort I the Southern States to wipe clean the stain of slavery. You have school text books presenting the 'positive' side of slavery.0 -
eadric said:
This is big. Sorry to be a fear mongerer, but it is
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1231346166555643905?s=20
It's not the actual numbers (which are tiny) it is the near-exponential growth
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Dawn Butler resigned from Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet over Brexit policy, after breaking a three-line whip...rottenborough said:These people hated New Labour because it tried discipline over message.
Yet iirc not a single MP was suspended, even Corbyn, who may as well have been working for the Tories.
https://twitter.com/DawnButlerBrent/status/12312493499691376640 -
Looking at the Nevada Entrance Polls, if that is the result then no one is dropping out.
But Sanders will definetly win at least a plurality of delegates, getting 53% of Hispanics means game over in the West.0 -
That's not big. If it was near-exponential in all nations then it would be big.eadric said:This is big. Sorry to be a fear mongerer, but it is
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1231346166555643905?s=20
It's not the actual numbers (which are tiny) it is the near-exponential growth
Instead its just cherrypicking. A fallacy that leads to confirmation bias.0 -
That seems like a garbage statement. The Dems lost 2016 because of differential turnoit not swing voters.rottenborough said:Thread of the evening...
https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/12313406429215989830 -
What matters is the Mid-West, that's where all the swing states that matter are.Tim_B said:
As one who lives in the deep South, I would agree with your observation.eadric said:
No, he's notkinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.0 -
I once again say I am completely floored by the Sanders Hispanic numbers. Complete game changer.speedy2 said:Looking at the Nevada Entrance Polls, if that is the result then no one is dropping out.
But Sanders will definetly win at least a plurality of delegates, getting 53% of Hispanics means game over in the West.0 -
Wow you really are in excellent fiction form tonight Sean. The leap from the coronavirus to Bernie's election is a sleight of hand that would have made Paul Daniels proud.eadric said:THIS is what could win it for Sanders, if America decides it needs emergency socialist health care
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231349085900353537?s=200 -
Sanders does best with the young and OK with the middle-aged, but he's 3rd among 65+ voters (they prefer Biden - perhaps they think Sanders is too young...), according to the Neva entry poll:FrancisUrquhart said:<
The big thing Trump has going for him is the economy is doing pretty well. While the students might like the sound of free uni and recent graduates having all their debt written off by Sanders, I wonder like here is the middle aged and oldies want such a radical change.
https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200222-nevada/#entrance-polls-point-to-a-600 -
Climate denial? Do some of us deny the existence of a climate?0
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Real or mocked up for likes & retweets?
https://twitter.com/Makaveli1878/status/1231132221882486786?s=200 -
"Overreactioneadric said:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
"As for events in world history, the normalcy bias explains why, when the volcano Vesuvius erupted, the residents of Pompeii watched for hours without evacuating.[9] It explains why thousands of people refused to leave New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina approached[10] and why at least 70% of 9/11 survivors spoke with others before leaving.[8] Officials at the White Star Line made insufficient preparations to evacuate passengers on the Titanic and people refused evacuation orders because they underestimated the odds of a worst-case scenario and minimized its potential impact.[11] Similarly, experts connected with the Fukushima nuclear power plant were strongly convinced that a multiple reactor meltdown could never occur.[12]"
The opposite of normalcy bias is overreaction bias. Noting the effect regression to the mean, most deviations from normalcy do not lead to catastrophe, despite regular predictions of doomsday.[further explanation needed] Both underreaction (normalcy bias) and overreaction (worst-case thinking) are cognitive flaws and may extend to patterns of cognitive distortions.[18]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
"Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or strengthens one's prior personal beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply-entrenched beliefs.
People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations)."0 -
I'm call Nevada for Sanders.0
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If its Trump vs Sanders, I imagine CNN will be 24/7 of their hosts just smashing their heads into the desk.2
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True, but also PAspeedy2 said:
What matters is the Mid-West, that's where all the swing states that matter are.Tim_B said:
As one who lives in the deep South, I would agree with your observation.eadric said:
No, he's notkinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.0 -
Next BBC director general must be a reformer, as 'no change' is not an option, Baroness Morgan warns
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/22/next-bbc-director-general-must-reformer-no-change-not-option/0 -
He is going to lose. What will be interesting is the margin. I think it will be big for the Dems but I'm not quite so confident about that.eadric said:No, he's not
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.0 -
Wish you were right but unfortunately Bernie will struggle to win over swing voters outside the north-east and west.kinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
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Sean you really need to a) cut back on the Barolo and b) substitute it with a chill pill.
You're even more loopy than usual this evening.0 -
Old people don't like change.NickPalmer said:
Sanders does best with the young and OK with the middle-aged, but he's 3rd among 65+ voters (they prefer Biden - perhaps they think Sanders is too young...), according to the Neva entry poll:FrancisUrquhart said:<
The big thing Trump has going for him is the economy is doing pretty well. While the students might like the sound of free uni and recent graduates having all their debt written off by Sanders, I wonder like here is the middle aged and oldies want such a radical change.
https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200222-nevada/#entrance-polls-point-to-a-60
Trump had the same issue in 2016 and he still has an issue with very old people today.
Trump and Sanders are change that is unfamiliar.0 -
Why do you need Medicare if you are dying of the most deadly outbreak of deadly flu zombie death ever ?eadric said:
Why should this not be a factor, you dribbling cretin?Mysticrose said:
Wow you really are in excellent fiction form tonight Sean. The leap from the coronavirus to Bernie's election is a sleight of hand that would have made Paul Daniels proud.eadric said:THIS is what could win it for Sanders, if America decides it needs emergency socialist health care
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231349085900353537?s=20
Trump's advisors think coronavirus could LOSE the election for them, even against a mad lefty dwarf like Sanders
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/coronavirus-trump-white-house-1166500 -
But Starmer seems more acceptable to the Corbynites than Nandy doesn't he?SandyRentool said:
RLB in third should be a reason for concern for Starmer. If Nandy gets the bulk of transfers it could be a close race.TGOHF666 said:0 -
0
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The Dems lost 2016 because of swing voters in key sates like Pennsylvania and Michigan.Alistair said:
That seems like a garbage statement. The Dems lost 2016 because of differential turnoit not swing voters.rottenborough said:Thread of the evening...
https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/12313406429215989830 -
I know, that's hardly "unelectable" now is it?kinabalu said:@Philip_Thompson
Trump is 1.7 on Betfair.0 -
In Michigan the fall in turnout of the black vote was more than enough to cover the gap.Philip_Thompson said:
The Dems lost 2016 because of swing voters in key sates like Pennsylvania and Michigan.Alistair said:
That seems like a garbage statement. The Dems lost 2016 because of differential turnoit not swing voters.rottenborough said:Thread of the evening...
https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/12313406429215989830 -
It does feel like that. Wariness about translating political lessons across the atlantic as one must be, a lot of the reasoning used is so similar its hard not to predict similar outcomes.rottenborough said:
Oh God. It really is like watching a rerun of 2019. Still, all those young hipster Dems in college towns who are phone banking their little ears off for Sanders will sleep easy tonight knowing their man is a winner.eadric said:Look at this tweet about Sanders. It is Corbynism, word for word
https://twitter.com/lisapease/status/1231350640124649472?s=200 -
Perhaps a bit of wishcasting on my part.kle4 said:
But Starmer seems more acceptable to the Corbynites than Nandy doesn't he?SandyRentool said:
RLB in third should be a reason for concern for Starmer. If Nandy gets the bulk of transfers it could be a close race.TGOHF666 said:
#Sandy4Nandy makes me a less than impartial observer.
But I believe that Nandy will get more RLB second preferences than vice versa.
Night all.0 -
Nevada Democratic party announces the results will be in "soon".
Translation: We don't know.0 -
The fall in the black vote is a misnomer, it was a reversion to mean. Clinton polled as well with the black vote as prior Democrats excluding Obama had done - the high turnout Obama got in 2012 where the black turnout exceeded white turnout for the only time ever was an exception not the norm.Alistair said:
In Michigan the fall in turnout of the black vote was more than enough to cover the gap.Philip_Thompson said:
The Dems lost 2016 because of swing voters in key sates like Pennsylvania and Michigan.Alistair said:
That seems like a garbage statement. The Dems lost 2016 because of differential turnoit not swing voters.rottenborough said:Thread of the evening...
https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/1231340642921598983
Michigan last failed to go for the Democrats when their nominee was Dukakis but it failed to go for Hillary Clinton. Because she didn't campaign there much and it swung to Trump, not because of turnout.0 -
Your plan has one flaw, he already has been elected.kinabalu said:
No. Trump is uniquely unelectable. He's toast.Mexicanpete said:It does in the USA I am afraid.
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O/T
"Would you kill one person to save five? Depends if you’re a millennial or not
Unthinkable: Should we be worried about the apparent rise of utilitarianism?
Joe Humphreys"
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/would-you-kill-one-person-to-save-five-depends-if-you-re-a-millennial-or-not-1.4173661#.XlEbMdAVSRA.twitter0 -
And those same people are saying he WILL win this time. Will they be wrong again?FrancisUrquhart said:I seemed to remember people saying that in 2016...
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In Michigan Romney got 44.7%Philip_Thompson said:
The Dems lost 2016 because of swing voters in key sates like Pennsylvania and Michigan.Alistair said:
That seems like a garbage statement. The Dems lost 2016 because of differential turnoit not swing voters.rottenborough said:Thread of the evening...
https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/1231340642921598983
Trump got 47.5%
That's 2.8 points more.
Clinton got 6.9 points less.
That's not voters swing from Dem to Republican. That was Trump juicing the Republican turnout and Clinton depressing the Dem turnout.0
