You have no regrets...but you have posted here about your support for environmental issues....
Cruise ships dispose of a lot of waste and chemical by products into the sea...you wouldn't want your local council to just dump stuff....
Like Fox...I went on a small boat Nile cruise many years ago which I loved and still remember...but I couldn't do it now..no more than eat a steak.....
I've been to Vegas.... and New York many times....but I've changed, even these last couple of years. I haven't changed my iphones/MAC/tablet now for 2 years..I think about this stuff a lot more now
Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.
That Jeremy Corbyn failed to win an election here does not predestine the defeat of every radical left politician throughout the western world for the foreseeable future. He is just not that totemic.
It does in the USA I am afraid.
If you think a bellowing, ranty, red faced N Eastern socialist can win against Trump then I have a dozen bridges to sell you :-)
That Jeremy Corbyn failed to win an election here does not predestine the defeat of every radical left politician throughout the western world for the foreseeable future. He is just not that totemic.
It does in the USA I am afraid.
If you think a bellowing, ranty, red faced N Eastern socialist can win against Trump then I have a dozen bridges to sell you :-)
What's this? Is Ronnie Campbell standing?
He would have more chance frankly. At least he's not a millionaire socialist to my knowledge.
I like walking...I average over 21,500 steps per day...
You couldn't pay me to sit on a fucking cruise ship stuck with a bunch of Daily Mail reading grey heads stuffing their faces and professing their admiration for Boris Johnson...
It's not that bad! A friend who is a big fan perauded me to take one week-long cruise, and it was quite pleasant, with the usual mix of humanity - the star was a modest artist, who spent the whole trip sketching real and imagined maritime sights to amuse his grand-daughter when he arrived. I played a lot of bridge and did some dancing. I wouldn't do it again but it was a nice change.
Nick......you've not convinced me comrade....
Doubtless transporting 3000 by boat across the Atlantic by boat is better for the environment that a long haul flight...that is the kind of argument that washes with me and I was hoping Big_G to throw back...not the fact that you did a spot of dancing...
Mmm, but you're shifting the argument. You were saying that cruise ships are full of pompous plutocrats. I said not in my limited experience, and you say ha, but it's the environment that I was thinking of. You should be a politician!
Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.
That Jeremy Corbyn failed to win an election here does not predestine the defeat of every radical left politician throughout the western world for the foreseeable future. He is just not that totemic.
It does in the USA I am afraid.
Sanders is not nearly as left economically and he has consistently opposed autocratic regimes on right and left for 30 years.
Trump will paint him (somewhat ironically re: Trump/Putin love-in) as a Soviet sympathiser.
I like walking...I average over 21,500 steps per day...
You couldn't pay me to sit on a fucking cruise ship stuck with a bunch of Daily Mail reading grey heads stuffing their faces and professing their admiration for Boris Johnson...
It's not that bad! A friend who is a big fan perauded me to take one week-long cruise, and it was quite pleasant, with the usual mix of humanity - the star was a modest artist, who spent the whole trip sketching real and imagined maritime sights to amuse his grand-daughter when he arrived. I played a lot of bridge and did some dancing. I wouldn't do it again but it was a nice change.
Nick......you've not convinced me comrade....
Doubtless transporting 3000 by boat across the Atlantic by boat is better for the environment that a long haul flight...that is the kind of argument that washes with me and I was hoping Big_G to throw back...not the fact that you did a spot of dancing...
Mmm, but you're shifting the argument. You were saying that cruise ships are full of pompous plutocrats. I said not in my limited experience, and you say ha, but it's the environment that I was thinking of. You should be a politician!
Because there is no argument, he's just a hate-filled bigot.
You have no regrets...but you have posted here about your support for environmental issues....
Cruise ships dispose of a lot of waste and chemical by products into the sea...you wouldn't want your local council to just dump stuff....
Like Fox...I went on a small boat Nile cruise many years ago which I loved and still remember...but I couldn't do it now..no more than eat a steak.....
I've been to Vegas.... and New York many times....but I've changed, even these last couple of years. I haven't changed my iphones/MAC/tablet now for 2 years..I think about this stuff a lot more now
Cruise ships are much more environmentally friendly and will continue to evolve
We have done the Nile cruise with our children and it is a good example of cruising giving access to places and experiences, as was the case when we went to the Antarctic and Artic
I actually agree with some of your comments but making them political does reduce there effect
I don't actually recall Corbyn ever making a personal criticism of Blair or Brown (or anyone else much, he doesn't do personality stuff), let alone working to undermine them. He obviously disagreed with them lots about issues (almost without exception without risk to the Government, as he wasn't rebelling on issues that the Tories opposed). To be fair to Butler (who I'm not putting high on my own paper) I don't think she'd expel someone for disagreeing with policies.
Sadly, Corbyn has been a disaster for the Labour Party, but more importantly to being responsible for the situation now where we have the prospect of 10 years of rampant neoliberalism and all that it entails...it is difficult to imagine anyone who has been more disastrous to the cause of vulnerable people (and the environmental) in the UK than Jeremy Corbyn- possibly Len McCluskey...
Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.
The fundamental problem the Dems have is that the primary electorate for their party is way way left of the general electorate.
Given he's essentially already won there's little reason to disbelieve he means what he says.
There's every reason to disbelieve him. Leaving aside the obvious facts that (a) he's a politician and (b) the votes have yet actually to be cast, there's nothing to be gained from telling the Corbyn cult (who now constitute the majority of the party membership) that most of their beliefs need to be moderated or ditched because the general electorate (whom they despise as bigoted and/or thick anyway) won't stomach them.
One assumes that his strategy for beating the far Left and turning the party around is of the frog in a slowly warming saucepan variety. How far he'll manage to get I don't know. Dealing with the completely bonkers tax and spending plans and even the anti-Semitism issue won't be nearly as hard as suppressing the total obsession with sectarian identity politics and Europe, which pervades even the surviving minority of the party that hasn't given in to the Stop the War tendency.
He certainly seems to have the easiest path to nomination, and I get the impression the shift for mainstream democrats to fall in line shall not be far off. John Oliver did a recent bit on his Medicaid plans which was pretty token in any critique (I don't know if it is a good plan or not, but usually he raises more about criticisms by way of example even if he argues for it directly) for example. There could be a tipping point in his support.
Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.
The fundamental problem the Dems have is that the primary electorate for their party is way way left of the general electorate.
Is it too much to ask for them to raise their heads from their lovely pure navels and select someone who can win?
Given he's essentially already won there's little reason to disbelieve he means what he says.
There's every reason to disbelieve him. Leaving aside the obvious facts that (a) he's a politician and (b) the votes have yet actually to be cast, there's nothing to be gained from telling the Corbyn cult (who now constitute the majority of the party membership) that most of their beliefs need to be moderated or ditched because the general electorate (whom they despise as bigoted and/or thick anyway) won't stomach them.
One assumes that his strategy for beating the far Left and turning the party around is of the frog in a slowly warming saucepan variety. How far he'll manage to get I don't know. Dealing with the completely bonkers tax and spending plans and even the anti-Semitism issue won't be nearly as hard as suppressing the total obsession with sectarian identity politics and Europe, which pervades even the surviving minority of the party that hasn't given in to the Stop the War tendency.
That could be the case, but you start off assuming you know his intention is to beat the far left and proceeding from there. Which again could be correct, but how do we know that to be true? If it isn't then everything else that flows from that assumption gets tossed.
Granted everyone involved is a politician, but I still tend to believe people mean what they say (even if it is stupid and contradictory) unless there's hard proof to the contrary.
Looks like NV will help Trump to another four years then.
This is Corbyn redux.
Jeez.
The only thing Democrats should care about in 2020 is replacing Trump, and if that meant Clinton has another shot they should support that. Instead they are drawing up a list for Santa and seem on the whole oblivious to how much shit is going to get thrown at Sanders by the media, big business, the GOP, and Trump; and never mind all the dodgy voter registration, electoral roll culling, advertising blitz, social media shit-stirring and foreign interference that is ramping up.
The fundamental problem the Dems have is that the primary electorate for their party is way way left of the general electorate.
Is it too much to ask for them to raise their heads from their lovely pure navels and select someone who can win?
One of the big questions is that Unions absolutely HATE Sanders Medicare for all plan. One of their big selling points is the gold plated health plans their members have. They would disappear under Sanders.
The amount of money he's raising, his audiences at this speeches queueing up the night before to get in, and his ratings improvement says you may well be incorrect.
How do they know that large numbers of Trump supporters aren’t registering as Democrats for the primaries?
It's easy enough in Nevada (https://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/regcur.aspx), but if it was happening on a large scale we'd be getting some specific reports, as we did here when a probably modest number of Tories mischievously voted for Corbyn in the leadership election.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
The big thing Trump has going for him is the economy is doing pretty well. While the students might like the sound of free uni and recent graduates having all their debt written off by Sanders, I wonder like here is the middle aged and oldies want such a radical change.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
As one who lives in the deep South, I would agree with your observation.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
This. A thousand times this.
Why do I wake at 4am in a cold sweat screaming McGovern?
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
That anecdote would work much better if you were in a swing state rather than somewhere that voted for every Republican candidate in the last 20 years by a 40 point margin.
One of the big questions is that Unions absolutely HATE Sanders Medicare for all plan. One of their big selling points is the gold plated health plans their members have. They would disappear under Sanders.
Just one example of how he will be burnt to pieces in the general.
Funny how looking across the Atlantic can make strange bedfellows. I can't imagine us both wanting the same person for PM, but I believe we both want the same one for President.
Oh God. It really is like watching a rerun of 2019. Still, all those young hipster Dems in college towns who are phone banking their little ears off for Sanders will sleep easy tonight knowing their man is a winner.
The amount of money he's raising, his audiences at this speeches queueing up the night before to get in, and his ratings improvement says you may well be incorrect.
He does have a punchers chance, I suppose.
But come the time I think a sufficient number of Americans will locate their marbles.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
That anecdote would work much better if you were in a swing state rather than somewhere that voted for every Republican candidate in the last 20 years by a 40 point margin.
It doesn't matter where I said this, I am talking about educated white Americans who inexplicably (at the time, to me) voted for a deranged, declining fool like Trump. They did it because they think the Democrats are even crazier, with their idiot identity politics and elitist anti-patriotism.
If the Dems nominate Sanders then this perception will be reinforced, and Trump will probably win by a bigger margin.
"Idiot identity politics" == saying slavery was bad.
There is an entire propoganda effort I the Southern States to wipe clean the stain of slavery. You have school text books presenting the 'positive' side of slavery.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
As one who lives in the deep South, I would agree with your observation.
What matters is the Mid-West, that's where all the swing states that matter are.
Wow you really are in excellent fiction form tonight Sean. The leap from the coronavirus to Bernie's election is a sleight of hand that would have made Paul Daniels proud.
The big thing Trump has going for him is the economy is doing pretty well. While the students might like the sound of free uni and recent graduates having all their debt written off by Sanders, I wonder like here is the middle aged and oldies want such a radical change.
Sanders does best with the young and OK with the middle-aged, but he's 3rd among 65+ voters (they prefer Biden - perhaps they think Sanders is too young...), according to the Neva entry poll:
"As for events in world history, the normalcy bias explains why, when the volcano Vesuvius erupted, the residents of Pompeii watched for hours without evacuating.[9] It explains why thousands of people refused to leave New Orleans as Hurricane Katrina approached[10] and why at least 70% of 9/11 survivors spoke with others before leaving.[8] Officials at the White Star Line made insufficient preparations to evacuate passengers on the Titanic and people refused evacuation orders because they underestimated the odds of a worst-case scenario and minimized its potential impact.[11] Similarly, experts connected with the Fukushima nuclear power plant were strongly convinced that a multiple reactor meltdown could never occur.[12]"
"Overreaction The opposite of normalcy bias is overreaction bias. Noting the effect regression to the mean, most deviations from normalcy do not lead to catastrophe, despite regular predictions of doomsday.[further explanation needed] Both underreaction (normalcy bias) and overreaction (worst-case thinking) are cognitive flaws and may extend to patterns of cognitive distortions.[18]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias "Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or strengthens one's prior personal beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply-entrenched beliefs.
People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations)."
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
As one who lives in the deep South, I would agree with your observation.
What matters is the Mid-West, that's where all the swing states that matter are.
I was recently in the Deep South. When you say to these voters "Look Trump is demented and crazy", they shrug and say "Yeah, we know, but look at the Democrats"
And these are EDUCATED voters I was talking to.
Trump will win again if he faces Sanders.
He is going to lose. What will be interesting is the margin. I think it will be big for the Dems but I'm not quite so confident about that.
The big thing Trump has going for him is the economy is doing pretty well. While the students might like the sound of free uni and recent graduates having all their debt written off by Sanders, I wonder like here is the middle aged and oldies want such a radical change.
Sanders does best with the young and OK with the middle-aged, but he's 3rd among 65+ voters (they prefer Biden - perhaps they think Sanders is too young...), according to the Neva entry poll:
Wow you really are in excellent fiction form tonight Sean. The leap from the coronavirus to Bernie's election is a sleight of hand that would have made Paul Daniels proud.
Why should this not be a factor, you dribbling cretin?
Trump's advisors think coronavirus could LOSE the election for them, even against a mad lefty dwarf like Sanders
Oh God. It really is like watching a rerun of 2019. Still, all those young hipster Dems in college towns who are phone banking their little ears off for Sanders will sleep easy tonight knowing their man is a winner.
It does feel like that. Wariness about translating political lessons across the atlantic as one must be, a lot of the reasoning used is so similar its hard not to predict similar outcomes.
That seems like a garbage statement. The Dems lost 2016 because of differential turnoit not swing voters.
The Dems lost 2016 because of swing voters in key sates like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
In Michigan the fall in turnout of the black vote was more than enough to cover the gap.
The fall in the black vote is a misnomer, it was a reversion to mean. Clinton polled as well with the black vote as prior Democrats excluding Obama had done - the high turnout Obama got in 2012 where the black turnout exceeded white turnout for the only time ever was an exception not the norm.
Michigan last failed to go for the Democrats when their nominee was Dukakis but it failed to go for Hillary Clinton. Because she didn't campaign there much and it swung to Trump, not because of turnout.
"Would you kill one person to save five? Depends if you’re a millennial or not Unthinkable: Should we be worried about the apparent rise of utilitarianism?
Comments
You have no regrets...but you have posted here about your support for environmental issues....
Cruise ships dispose of a lot of waste and chemical by products into the sea...you wouldn't want your local council to just dump stuff....
Like Fox...I went on a small boat Nile cruise many years ago which I loved and still remember...but I couldn't do it now..no more than eat a steak.....
I've been to Vegas.... and New York many times....but I've changed, even these last couple of years. I haven't changed my iphones/MAC/tablet now for 2 years..I think about this stuff a lot more now
Sanders 33%
Biden 17%
Pete 15%
Warren 14%
Klobuchar 10%
(First choice vote, CBS just now)
We have done the Nile cruise with our children and it is a good example of cruising giving access to places and experiences, as was the case when we went to the Antarctic and Artic
I actually agree with some of your comments but making them political does reduce there effect
https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200222-nevada/#entrance-polls-point-to-a-60
He's also scoring best among men. Arguably this augurs well for a battle with Trump for the Rust Belt.
One assumes that his strategy for beating the far Left and turning the party around is of the frog in a slowly warming saucepan variety. How far he'll manage to get I don't know. Dealing with the completely bonkers tax and spending plans and even the anti-Semitism issue won't be nearly as hard as suppressing the total obsession with sectarian identity politics and Europe, which pervades even the surviving minority of the party that hasn't given in to the Stop the War tendency.
Granted everyone involved is a politician, but I still tend to believe people mean what they say (even if it is stupid and contradictory) unless there's hard proof to the contrary.
Sorry Nick.
https://twitter.com/xeniaporvida/status/1231270547574677506?s=20
Why do I wake at 4am in a cold sweat screaming McGovern?
But imagine what Zuckerberg had been like if he had decided to run!!!
https://twitter.com/bdomenech/status/1231340642921598983
Funny how looking across the Atlantic can make strange bedfellows. I can't imagine us both wanting the same person for PM, but I believe we both want the same one for President.
But come the time I think a sufficient number of Americans will locate their marbles.
There is an entire propoganda effort I the Southern States to wipe clean the stain of slavery. You have school text books presenting the 'positive' side of slavery.
But Sanders will definetly win at least a plurality of delegates, getting 53% of Hispanics means game over in the West.
Instead its just cherrypicking. A fallacy that leads to confirmation bias.
https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200222-nevada/#entrance-polls-point-to-a-60
https://twitter.com/Makaveli1878/status/1231132221882486786?s=20
The opposite of normalcy bias is overreaction bias. Noting the effect regression to the mean, most deviations from normalcy do not lead to catastrophe, despite regular predictions of doomsday.[further explanation needed] Both underreaction (normalcy bias) and overreaction (worst-case thinking) are cognitive flaws and may extend to patterns of cognitive distortions.[18]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
"Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or strengthens one's prior personal beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply-entrenched beliefs.
People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain attitude polarization (when a disagreement becomes more extreme even though the different parties are exposed to the same evidence), belief perseverance (when beliefs persist after the evidence for them is shown to be false), the irrational primacy effect (a greater reliance on information encountered early in a series) and illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations)."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/02/22/next-bbc-director-general-must-reformer-no-change-not-option/
You're even more loopy than usual this evening.
Trump had the same issue in 2016 and he still has an issue with very old people today.
Trump and Sanders are change that is unfamiliar.
Trump is 1.7 on Betfair.
#Sandy4Nandy makes me a less than impartial observer.
But I believe that Nandy will get more RLB second preferences than vice versa.
Night all.
Translation: We don't know.
Michigan last failed to go for the Democrats when their nominee was Dukakis but it failed to go for Hillary Clinton. Because she didn't campaign there much and it swung to Trump, not because of turnout.
"Would you kill one person to save five? Depends if you’re a millennial or not
Unthinkable: Should we be worried about the apparent rise of utilitarianism?
Joe Humphreys"
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/would-you-kill-one-person-to-save-five-depends-if-you-re-a-millennial-or-not-1.4173661#.XlEbMdAVSRA.twitter
Trump got 47.5%
That's 2.8 points more.
Clinton got 6.9 points less.
That's not voters swing from Dem to Republican. That was Trump juicing the Republican turnout and Clinton depressing the Dem turnout.