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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rishi Sunak – tipped here for next PM when he was 200/1 now 25/1
My Ladbrokes betting slip
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Comments
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First. I didn't get on. I should have.
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First?0
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To be honest. other than the thread header referred to, I have not heard of him or seen him perform. Chief Secretary to the Treasury used to be a Cabinet post, didn't it? It's a low profile post but of considerable importance, especially when you have something of a lightweight Chancellor.0
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I saw him on the 7-way debate. No disasters but didnt shine either imo.DavidL said:To be honest. other than the thread header referred to, I have not heard of him or seen him perform. Chief Secretary to the Treasury used to be a Cabinet post, didn't it? It's a low profile post but of considerable importance, especially when you have something of a lightweight Chancellor.
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You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........0 -
I guess I’m going to have give Philip some lessons about legendary modesty.0
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Doesn’t harm that he’s filthy rich, though.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........0 -
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
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It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
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What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........0 -
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........1 -
The value is gone now.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........0 -
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
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Indeed it was. Slightly less so now....TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
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You take you profit long before the event you’ve bet on plays out.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
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I feel its likely that he has you on toast there. Assuming it's the DoE. And if he quite literally wants TSE on toast then I think we should do thatTheScreamingEagles said:I guess I’m going to have give Philip some lessons about legendary modesty.
(Insufficient pineapple in the diet to really work mind)
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Dont see how that differs from any other long term betNigelb said:
You take you profit long before the event you’ve bet on plays out.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
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I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.2 -
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.0 -
Who dares constrain China? They get huffy if sport stars tweet something disapproving, let alone anything real.Morris_Dancer said:Seems quite relevant, though an old tweet:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1097468280669917184
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Burgon is a duffer, but I quite like him. I also quite like Barry Gardiner and Diane Abbot. A trio of terrible, all Cambridge, but I can see why the admissions tutor went for it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
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Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.0 -
Once Boris gracefully retires after a decade in power having been the most brilliant and successful Tory PM since Thatcher and Churchill and with 2 general election wins under his belt and having delivered Brexit with trade deals around the world, Rishi Sunak might have a chance to succeed him.
However he would have to see off the likes of Javid, Raab and Patel if they are still around and also face the problem he would be seeking an unprecedented third decade of the Tories in power, something they have not achieved since Lord Liverpool.
Despite the current uselessness of the opposition by then even Labour and the LDs might have got their act together0 -
I believe he did.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
A lot of idiots go to Cambridge (or Oxford or Harvard), and a lot of very smart people either didn't go to University at all, or went somewhere without the history or the reputation.
It turns out that people develop at different rates. Top of the primary school class at six years old does not mean likely CEO.2 -
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra0 -
I deduce the Cambridge syllabus doesn’t include rhetoric, then ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and (said ?) that Burgon was very good at English literature...
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To be pedantic - it was under Canning as acting Prime Minister following Liverpool’s stroke in February 1827 that the Tories entered their third decade in power (26th March 1827 being the 20th anniversary of the fall of Grenville).HYUFD said:Once Boris gracefully retires after a decade in power having been the most brilliant and successful Tory PM since Thatcher and Churchill and with 2 general election wins under his belt and having delivered Brexit with trade deals around the world, Rishi Sunak might have a chance to succeed him.
However he would have to see off the likes of Javid, Raab and Patel if they are still around and also face the problem he would be seeking an unprecedented third decade of the Tories in power, something they have not achieved since Lord Liverpool.
Despite the current uselessness of the opposition by then even Labour and the LDs might have got their act together
Moreover, it didn’t exactly last for the full decade.0 -
200/1 about right, then.HYUFD said:Once Boris gracefully retires after a decade in power having been the most brilliant and successful Tory PM since Thatcher and Churchill and with 2 general election wins under his belt and having delivered Brexit with trade deals around the world, Rishi Sunak might have a chance to succeed him...
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The problem the US has is that it's pushing away it's natural allies at the time it needs them most.kle4 said:
Who dares constrain China? They get huffy if sport stars tweet something disapproving, let alone anything real.Morris_Dancer said:Seems quite relevant, though an old tweet:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1097468280669917184
Look at South America. Those countries that buckled to Trump's pressure in 2017/18 and introduced voluntary export controls (Brazil and Argentina) have been royally shat upon by Trump when he chucked tariffs on them both.
They won't make that mistake again: China keeps its promises and Trump will have just moved two likely Western/US allies into the China camp.0 -
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/02/business/economy/trump-tariffs-brazil-argentina-metal.htmlrcs1000 said:
The problem the US has is that it's pushing away it's natural allies at the time it needs them most.kle4 said:
Who dares constrain China? They get huffy if sport stars tweet something disapproving, let alone anything real.Morris_Dancer said:Seems quite relevant, though an old tweet:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1097468280669917184
Look at South America. Those countries that buckled to Trump's pressure in 2017/18 and introduced voluntary export controls (Brazil and Argentina) have been royally shat upon by Trump when he chucked tariffs on them both.
They won't make that mistake again: China keeps its promises and Trump will have just moved two likely Western/US allies into the China camp.0 -
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?2 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.
Having members at the forefront for and against any debate is probably what you want from a university.
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Offtopic, but in case anyone missed it, the rather funny Private Eye Review of the Year 2019. Equal opportunities satire and impressions - pretty much everyone is a target.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MhX3ez_Onvo0 -
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.1 -
So, Cambridge should produce biologists who believe in Intelligent Design?Omnium said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.
Having members at the forefront for and against any debate is probably what you want from a university.0 -
Should we be encouraging minors to bet?rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.1 -
It's amazing to think that HIGNFY has been running for THIRTY years.Sandpit said:Offtopic, but in case anyone missed it, the rather funny Private Eye Review of the Year 2019. Equal opportunities satire and impressions - pretty much everyone is a target.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MhX3ez_Onvo2 -
Luckyguy1983 said:
Should we be encouraging minors to bet?rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.
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The biggest advantage he has is time
If Boris is a success he has 5-10 years as PM, by which time Rishi will be a senior Cabinet minister while the Javids and Patels of the world will be long in the tooth
If Boris is a failure then you are likely not getting a Tory next PM anyway0 -
A filthy rich ex-GS banker will have such an understanding of the issues for people living in towns like Millom and Workington and Barrow, won’t he?Nigelb said:
Doesn’t harm that he’s filthy rich, though.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
You can’t make sensible public policy just by looking at a spreadsheet.0 -
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.0 -
That sort of thing gets my goat, it really does.Luckyguy1983 said:
Should we be encouraging minors to bet?rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.1 -
ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.0 -
Sure, if they can do so.rcs1000 said:
So, Cambridge should produce biologists who believe in Intelligent Design?Omnium said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.
Having members at the forefront for and against any debate is probably what you want from a university.
You tip up at Cambridge on day one and are just in awe of the place. Days two to quite a few. You're in the bar.
Day's beyond that you get to think. Frolic in the thought of others. Jive to your own intellectual thing.
If you finish up thinking Intelligent Design is wise and good, then I'm listening.0 -
Yes but in my defence there are so few bad lawyers in the world. Ahem.Cyclefree said:ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.0 -
You can see why someone suggested I would have made a fantastic spin doctor.ydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.0 -
What about Unite’s lawyer? I read the judgement in Turley v Unite and Walker this afternoon and I really enjoyed the moment where the judge mocked the counsel for the defence for suggesting no damage had been done because everyone knows Skwawkbox only publishes a pack of lies anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but in my defence there are so few bad lawyers in the world. Ahem.Cyclefree said:ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.0 -
Do you have a link please?ydoethur said:
What about Unite’s lawyer? I read the judgement in Turley v Unite and Walker this afternoon and I really enjoyed the moment where the judge mocked the counsel for the defence for suggesting no damage had been done because everyone knows Skwawkbox only publishes a pack of lies anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but in my defence there are so few bad lawyers in the world. Ahem.Cyclefree said:ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.0 -
They are. Both of them.Cyclefree said:ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.0 -
I guess this means Balfour Beatty will no longer get government contracts.
Ferfuxsake.
Floor plans of MI6's central London headquarters were lost by building contractors during a refurbishment.
The documents, most of which were recovered inside the building, held sensitive information on the layout, including entry and exit points.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-509278540 -
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.0 -
Essentially it comes down to whether you intend to hold to maturity or whether you expect - at the time of making the bet - to liquidate prior to maturityisam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?2 -
Honestly if I had to choose between rewatching Cats or watching my parents having sex I'd have to think about it.HYUFD said:
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.1 -
Liverpool took over in 1812 with the Tories already having been in power for 5 years and stayed PM for 15 years until 1827, a period in office that even outlasted Thatcher. The Tories remained in power for a further 3 years until 1830 when Grey replaced the Duke of Wellington to lead the Whigs back to powerydoethur said:
To be pedantic - it was under Canning as acting Prime Minister following Liverpool’s stroke in February 1827 that the Tories entered their third decade in power (26th March 1827 being the 20th anniversary of the fall of Grenville).HYUFD said:Once Boris gracefully retires after a decade in power having been the most brilliant and successful Tory PM since Thatcher and Churchill and with 2 general election wins under his belt and having delivered Brexit with trade deals around the world, Rishi Sunak might have a chance to succeed him.
However he would have to see off the likes of Javid, Raab and Patel if they are still around and also face the problem he would be seeking an unprecedented third decade of the Tories in power, something they have not achieved since Lord Liverpool.
Despite the current uselessness of the opposition by then even Labour and the LDs might have got their act together
Moreover, it didn’t exactly last for the full decade.0 -
Has anyone commented on Tom Cruise's entry into the US Presidential race?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Btb8gLy3-E0 -
Ironically I was discussing something similar with a colleague last week.TheScreamingEagles said:I guess this means Balfour Beatty will no longer get government contracts.
Ferfuxsake.
Floor plans of MI6's central London headquarters were lost by building contractors during a refurbishment.
The documents, most of which were recovered inside the building, held sensitive information on the layout, including entry and exit points.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50927854
He worked on a project in a prison in the U.K. a decade or so ago. As expected, all copies of the plans were numbered and watermarked, had to be signed in an out, had to be kept in a certain safe and viewed in certain rooms, computers containing digital copies couldn’t access a network etc etc.
How the hell do you lose copies of plans to such a secure building, and how the hell were the plans even allowed off the site in the first place?0 -
The moron who stuffed up procurement of ammunition for the British army was a lawyer.Cyclefree said:ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.
He actually told me that he had done the right thing - the fact that it was a disaster was outside his remit.
He replaced a group of... basically gun nuts in the MoD who had done ammo procurement up to that point.0 -
That is a much more concise and pithy summary than my turgid efforts.Charles said:
Essentially it comes down to whether you intend to hold to maturity or whether you expect - at the time of making the bet - to liquidate prior to maturityisam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?0 -
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Turley-v-Unite-2019-EWHC-3547-QB-Final-for-handdown.pdfTheScreamingEagles said:
Do you have a link please?ydoethur said:
What about Unite’s lawyer? I read the judgement in Turley v Unite and Walker this afternoon and I really enjoyed the moment where the judge mocked the counsel for the defence for suggesting no damage had been done because everyone knows Skwawkbox only publishes a pack of lies anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but in my defence there are so few bad lawyers in the world. Ahem.Cyclefree said:ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.
The whole thing is worth reading, but the contortions revealed on pages 42-44 are something else.
Incredibly, Walker is now claiming that the judgement went against Turley because the judge told her off for not sharing a series of WhatsApp messages in a timely manner (P. 72) - and is editing Wikipedia to that effect, without mentioning that the judge considered the fact she was mistaken did not mean she had lied to the court as Walker and Unite repeatedly and publicly claimed.1 -
Wouldn’t know, haven’t seen cats. Well, other than my two, obviously.HYUFD said:
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.0 -
The Telegraph review of Cats is brilliantTheScreamingEagles said:
Honestly if I had to choose between rewatching Cats or watching my parents having sex I'd have to think about it.HYUFD said:
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/cats-review-sinister-all-time-disaster-no-one-emerges-unscathed/2 -
All of which more or less you could have said, and many did, about Boris. We've moved on from there I think.Cyclefree said:
A filthy rich ex-GS banker will have such an understanding of the issues for people living in towns like Millom and Workington and Barrow, won’t he?Nigelb said:
Doesn’t harm that he’s filthy rich, though.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
You can’t make sensible public policy just by looking at a spreadsheet.0 -
It currently has a 17% favourable rating on Rotten Tomatoesydoethur said:
Wouldn’t know, haven’t seen cats. Well, other than my two, obviously.HYUFD said:
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.0 -
(a) Boris is rapid failure, and is ejected by his party in the next five years. Chance: very small. Result: a current senior Cabinet Minister is next PM.Charles said:The biggest advantage he has is time
If Boris is a success he has 5-10 years as PM, by which time Rishi will be a senior Cabinet minister while the Javids and Patels of the world will be long in the tooth
If Boris is a failure then you are likely not getting a Tory next PM anyway
(b) Boris is a slightly less rapid failure and is dumped by the electorate in 2024. Chance: a bit higher. Result: a non-Conservative is next PM.
(c) Boris is a relative success and hands over in the next Parliament. Chance: reasonable. Result: someone who is not currently a senior Cabinet Minister becomes PM.
Personally, I'd simply sell the favourites right now.0 -
I'm still not really any the wiser as to why there is any need to call a bet a 'trading bet'. I mean, I know what you mean, and that's what I thought people meant by the term, but really, the logic applies to all long term bets. You don't back someone at 10/1 thinking the related events that follow immediately are going to be bad for them, and the market will go against you, but they'll win anyway, you do it because you think the odds offered will change in your favour, which applies to all long term bets, whether you call them 'trading' or not.rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.0 -
Thanks.ydoethur said:
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Turley-v-Unite-2019-EWHC-3547-QB-Final-for-handdown.pdfTheScreamingEagles said:
Do you have a link please?ydoethur said:
What about Unite’s lawyer? I read the judgement in Turley v Unite and Walker this afternoon and I really enjoyed the moment where the judge mocked the counsel for the defence for suggesting no damage had been done because everyone knows Skwawkbox only publishes a pack of lies anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but in my defence there are so few bad lawyers in the world. Ahem.Cyclefree said:ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.
The whole thing is worth reading, but the contortions revealed on pages 42-44 are something else.
Incredibly, Walker is now claiming that the judgement went against Turley because the judge told her off for not sharing a series of WhatsApp messages in a timely manner (P. 72) - and is editing Wikipedia to that effect, without mentioning that the judge considered the fact she was mistaken did not mean she had lied to the court as Walker and Unite repeatedly and publicly claimed.1 -
Blimey. It must be very nearly as bad as Solo then.HYUFD said:
It currently has a 17% favourable rating on Rotten Tomatoesydoethur said:
Wouldn’t know, haven’t seen cats. Well, other than my two, obviously.HYUFD said:
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.2 -
Thanks for that. Something to pass the time on a plane next week (and more amenable to fellow passengers than the B737 Max accident report that’s currently at the top of my reading list!).ydoethur said:
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Turley-v-Unite-2019-EWHC-3547-QB-Final-for-handdown.pdfTheScreamingEagles said:
Do you have a link please?ydoethur said:
What about Unite’s lawyer? I read the judgement in Turley v Unite and Walker this afternoon and I really enjoyed the moment where the judge mocked the counsel for the defence for suggesting no damage had been done because everyone knows Skwawkbox only publishes a pack of lies anyway.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes but in my defence there are so few bad lawyers in the world. Ahem.Cyclefree said:ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.
The whole thing is worth reading, but the contortions revealed on pages 42-44 are something else.
Incredibly, Walker is now claiming that the judgement went against Turley because the judge told her off for not sharing a series of WhatsApp messages in a timely manner (P. 72) - and is editing Wikipedia to that effect, without mentioning that the judge considered the fact she was mistaken did not mean she had lied to the court as Walker and Unite repeatedly and publicly claimed.0 -
With all academia, there is the need to have a constant requestioning of assumptions, to test the truth. But there also comes a point where blindness to evidence becomes an issue.Omnium said:
Sure, if they can do so.rcs1000 said:
So, Cambridge should produce biologists who believe in Intelligent Design?Omnium said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.
Having members at the forefront for and against any debate is probably what you want from a university.
You tip up at Cambridge on day one and are just in awe of the place. Days two to quite a few. You're in the bar.
Day's beyond that you get to think. Frolic in the thought of others. Jive to your own intellectual thing.
If you finish up thinking Intelligent Design is wise and good, then I'm listening.
It was good that Dr Wakefield questioned the assumptions about what caused autism. It was bad that he broke medical ethics rules. It was appalling that he continued pushing his agenda without mentioning his financial interest, or after the giant epistimological studies (Yokohama) proved way beyond reasonable doubt that multi-part vaccines didn't cause autism,.0 -
You do realise my job is basically to summarise turgid efforts concisely and pithily?rcs1000 said:
That is a much more concise and pithy summary than my turgid efforts.Charles said:
Essentially it comes down to whether you intend to hold to maturity or whether you expect - at the time of making the bet - to liquidate prior to maturityisam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?-1 -
Maybe since the advent of bf where you can lay off your position it has become more of a thing. Previously you backed something you thought was going to happen and waited. Now you can back it knowing it won't happen but might get more likely.isam said:
I'm still not really any the wiser as to why there is any need to call a bet a 'trading bet'. I mean, I know what you mean, and that's what I thought people meant by the term, but really, the logic applies to all long term bets. You don't back someone at 10/1 thinking the related events that follow immediately are going to be bad for them, and the market will go against you, but they'll win anyway, you do it because you think the odds offered will change in your favour, which applies to all long term bets, whether you call them 'trading' or not.rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.0 -
I see @viewcode is compiling a list of things that happened to people who comment on here in 2019. Well, my first child, a son, was born on November 1st. Leading up to the big day I had thought it would be a happy coincidence if we left the EU at 11pm on October 31st, as the government had said we would, making him one of the first British children to be born a non EU citizen for forty odd years... but it wasn't to be.
It's not that detail that keeps me up at night though!
Condolences to all those on the list who had sad news this year.5 -
Solo has a 70% rating, which tells you how bad the Cats film is to get just 17%ydoethur said:
Blimey. It must be very nearly as bad as Solo then.HYUFD said:
It currently has a 17% favourable rating on Rotten Tomatoesydoethur said:
Wouldn’t know, haven’t seen cats. Well, other than my two, obviously.HYUFD said:
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.1 -
I'm listening to you too.rcs1000 said:
With all academia, there is the need to have a constant requestioning of assumptions, to test the truth. But there also comes a point where blindness to evidence becomes an issue.Omnium said:
Sure, if they can do so.rcs1000 said:
So, Cambridge should produce biologists who believe in Intelligent Design?Omnium said:TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.
Having members at the forefront for and against any debate is probably what you want from a university.
You tip up at Cambridge on day one and are just in awe of the place. Days two to quite a few. You're in the bar.
Day's beyond that you get to think. Frolic in the thought of others. Jive to your own intellectual thing.
If you finish up thinking Intelligent Design is wise and good, then I'm listening.
It was good that Dr Wakefield questioned the assumptions about what caused autism. It was bad that he broke medical ethics rules. It was appalling that he continued pushing his agenda without mentioning his financial interest, or after the giant epistimological studies (Yokohama) proved way beyond reasonable doubt that multi-part vaccines didn't cause autism,.
Ideas in academia work because they're ideas. Politicians sometimes nab those ideas and dress them up like truth. That tends not to work out.
I'd suggest the whole field of Economics falls foul or this.0 -
Yes, every long term bet seems to be a trading bet, in my opinionTOPPING said:
Maybe since the advent of bf where you can lay off your position it has become more of a thing. Previously you backed something you thought was going to happen and waited. Now you can back it knowing it won't happen but might get more likely.isam said:
I'm still not really any the wiser as to why there is any need to call a bet a 'trading bet'. I mean, I know what you mean, and that's what I thought people meant by the term, but really, the logic applies to all long term bets. You don't back someone at 10/1 thinking the related events that follow immediately are going to be bad for them, and the market will go against you, but they'll win anyway, you do it because you think the odds offered will change in your favour, which applies to all long term bets, whether you call them 'trading' or not.rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.0 -
More exactly - a large number of other people will believe it is more likely to happen.TOPPING said:
Maybe since the advent of bf where you can lay off your position it has become more of a thing. Previously you backed something you thought was going to happen and waited. Now you can back it knowing it won't happen but might get more likely.isam said:
I'm still not really any the wiser as to why there is any need to call a bet a 'trading bet'. I mean, I know what you mean, and that's what I thought people meant by the term, but really, the logic applies to all long term bets. You don't back someone at 10/1 thinking the related events that follow immediately are going to be bad for them, and the market will go against you, but they'll win anyway, you do it because you think the odds offered will change in your favour, which applies to all long term bets, whether you call them 'trading' or not.rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.0 -
I currently run a Democratic nomination bot on Betfair. Basically, I have my general probabilities for each of the candidates, and it tries to maintain a fairly balanced book based on what I think are the likely eventual outcomes and my tolerence for risk. (Disclaimer: I lose a lot of H Clinton is the nominee.)isam said:
I'm still not really any the wiser as to why there is any need to call a bet a 'trading bet'. I mean, I know what you mean, and that's what I thought people meant by the term, but really, the logic applies to all long term bets. You don't back someone at 10/1 thinking the related events that follow immediately are going to be bad for them, and the market will go against you, but they'll win anyway, you do it because you think the odds offered will change in your favour, which applies to all long term bets, whether you call them 'trading' or not.rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop points
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.
But it's all based on my views as to the likelihood of who will win, and I update my internal forecasts all the time. So, I've raised my Biden likelihood pretty much every day for the last two weeks, while Buttigieg has faded somewhat. It's pretty pure, and seems likely to make me a reasonable sum.
What it doesn't do is forecast short-term moves. If a price spikes away from my central forecast it dabbles. It does a small amount of market making, and regularly has offers in on a number of candidates. It doesn't really making trading bets, it makes bets based on when the price is away from what I regard as the real probability of an event taking place.0 -
According to Twitter (so caveat emptor) Iain Duncan Smith is being awarded a knighthood.0
-
If you're the videogame industry, certainly.Luckyguy1983 said:
Should we be encouraging minors to bet?rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.0 -
The Solo trailer had you questioning your sanity and/or the future of civilisation ?ydoethur said:
Blimey. It must be very nearly as bad as Solo then.HYUFD said:
It currently has a 17% favourable rating on Rotten Tomatoesydoethur said:
Wouldn’t know, haven’t seen cats. Well, other than my two, obviously.HYUFD said:
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.0 -
Many congratulations on your new addition Sam.isam said:
Yes, every long term bet seems to be a trading bet, in my opinionTOPPING said:
Maybe since the advent of bf where you can lay off your position it has become more of a thing. Previously you backed something you thought was going to happen and waited. Now you can back it knowing it won't happen but might get more likely.isam said:
I'm still not really any the wiser as to why there is any need to call a bet a 'trading bet'. I mean, I know what you mean, and that's what I thought people meant by the term, but really, the logic applies to all long term bets. You don't back someone at 10/1 thinking the related events that follow immediately are going to be bad for them, and the market will go against you, but they'll win anyway, you do it because you think the odds offered will change in your favour, which applies to all long term bets, whether you call them 'trading' or not.rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomi
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.2 -
It was the more subtle, mind numbingly paint by numbers kind of bad, so the trailer was able to fool us - from the sounds of it the terrifying Cats trailer has saved many of us from an awful experience, so it should be applauded.Nigelb said:
The Solo trailer had you questioning your sanity and/or the future of civilisation ?ydoethur said:
Blimey. It must be very nearly as bad as Solo then.HYUFD said:
It currently has a 17% favourable rating on Rotten Tomatoesydoethur said:
Wouldn’t know, haven’t seen cats. Well, other than my two, obviously.HYUFD said:
I think you mean Cats rather than The Last Jediydoethur said:
That’s an extremely generous interpretation of their position.TheScreamingEagles said:
He did, which is a shame as Cambridge is well known and well honoured for producing alumni who fight against fascism.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Didn't Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?TheScreamingEagles said:
I’ve actually got an explanation for how Richard Burgon was accepted into St John’s.ydoethur said:
There is no space-time continuum that would be improved by having Richard Burgon in government.TheScreamingEagles said:
What we need is more lawyers in government.Cyclefree said:You can still get 33/1 on him on Ladbrokes.
Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.0 -
When is it all announced?TheScreamingEagles said:According to Twitter (so caveat emptor) Iain Duncan Smith is being awarded a knighthood.
0 -
He's a grandee now. Such is our political existence. Christ, Jeremy Corbyn will likely get one as a beloved party icon now.TheScreamingEagles said:According to Twitter (so caveat emptor) Iain Duncan Smith is being awarded a knighthood.
0 -
All happening at Molineux tonight.0
-
Tonight apparently.TOPPING said:
When is it all announced?TheScreamingEagles said:According to Twitter (so caveat emptor) Iain Duncan Smith is being awarded a knighthood.
0 -
Nope.Charles said:
You do realise my job is basically to summarise turgid efforts concisely and pithily?rcs1000 said:
That is a much more concise and pithy summary than my turgid efforts.Charles said:
Essentially it comes down to whether you intend to hold to maturity or whether you expect - at the time of making the bet - to liquidate prior to maturityisam said:
They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop pointsrcs1000 said:
A regular bet is one where you think the market price is wrong - i.e., you believe that the probability of the actual event is meaningfully different to the priced probability.isam said:
What is the difference between a trading bet and any other kind of bet?TheScreamingEagles said:
It is a fantastic trading bet.MarqueeMark said:
I don't see it paying out. With 364 MPs to choose from - possibly more when Boris destroys the rest of the Red Wall in 2024 - there's likely to be more impressive candidates to choose from by then.tlg86 said:First. I didn't get on. I should have.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
0 -
Thanks is there a govt website or crown one whereon it's listed?TheScreamingEagles said:
Tonight apparently.TOPPING said:
When is it all announced?TheScreamingEagles said:According to Twitter (so caveat emptor) Iain Duncan Smith is being awarded a knighthood.
0 -
Ahem.
0 -
I guess my definition of a trading bet is "a bet that I might get out of for profit or loss rather than let run" which is every bet barring punts on today's racing /football etc.. But fine, thanks for your take on what it meansrcs1000 said:
I currently run a Democratic nomination bot on Betfair. Basically, I have my general probabilities for each of the candidates, and it tries to maintain a fairly balanced book based on what I think are the likely eventual outcomes and my tolerence for risk. (Disclaimer: I lose a lot of H Clinton is the nominee.)isam said:
I'm still not really any the wiser as to why there is any need to call a bet a 'trading bet'. I mean, I know what you mean, and that's what I thought people meant by the term, but really, the logic applies to all long term bets. You don't back someone at 10/1 thinking the related events that follow immediately are going to be bad for them, and the market will go against you, but they'll win anyway, you do it because you think the odds offered will change in your favour, which applies to all long term bets, whether you call them 'trading' or not.rcs1000 said:
Yes, football is a pretty efficient market. Politics is less efficient.isam said:They dont seem that different to me. I would have thought the Tottenham scenario is in the price, and it wouldn't move that much if they lost all three games, because they are likely to drop points
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.
But it's all based on my views as to the likelihood of who will win, and I update my internal forecasts all the time. So, I've raised my Biden likelihood pretty much every day for the last two weeks, while Buttigieg has faded somewhat. It's pretty pure, and seems likely to make me a reasonable sum.
What it doesn't do is forecast short-term moves. If a price spikes away from my central forecast it dabbles. It does a small amount of market making, and regularly has offers in on a number of candidates. It doesn't really making trading bets, it makes bets based on when the price is away from what I regard as the real probability of an event taking place.0 -
Congratulations!isam said:I see @viewcode is compiling a list of things that happened to people who comment on here in 2019. Well, my first child, a son, was born on November 1st. Leading up to the big day I had thought it would be a happy coincidence if we left the EU at 11pm on October 31st, as the government had said we would, making him one of the first British children to be born a non EU citizen for forty odd years... but it wasn't to be.
It's not that detail that keeps me up at night though!
Condolences to all those on the list who had sad news this year.1 -
Yes, I wasn’t really sure what to make of that.TheScreamingEagles said:Ahem.
(Article here)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/27/tom-watson-i-quit-because-of-labour-brutality
Other than to think what was he doing hanging on so long ?0 -
He doesn’t do irony, does he?TheScreamingEagles said:Ahem.
0 -
Congratulations.isam said:I see @viewcode is compiling a list of things that happened to people who comment on here in 2019. Well, my first child, a son, was born on November 1st. Leading up to the big day I had thought it would be a happy coincidence if we left the EU at 11pm on October 31st, as the government had said we would, making him one of the first British children to be born a non EU citizen for forty odd years... but it wasn't to be.
It's not that detail that keeps me up at night though!
Condolences to all those on the list who had sad news this year.2 -
So that Guardian front page does confirm a knighthood for IDS.0
-
Drove him out and he said and did nothing, in fact he did worse than nothing because he kept them together under the great JCTheScreamingEagles said:Ahem.
0 -
Fair reward for his leadership of the party, his social justice campaigns and holding Chingford and Woodford Green against the Momentum onslaught. Well done Sir IainTheScreamingEagles said:According to Twitter (so caveat emptor) Iain Duncan Smith is being awarded a knighthood.
-1 -
It'll be on the main gov.uk site like so.TOPPING said:
Thanks is there a govt website or crown one whereon it's listed?TheScreamingEagles said:
Tonight apparently.TOPPING said:
When is it all announced?TheScreamingEagles said:According to Twitter (so caveat emptor) Iain Duncan Smith is being awarded a knighthood.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-years-honours-list-20191
This discussion has been closed.