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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rishi Sunak – tipped here for next PM when he was 200/1 now 25/1
My Ladbrokes betting slip
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Whenever I’ve heard him he has not particularly impressed me. A bit of an automaton in the way he speaks. And, groan, another ex-GS alumni. Bad enough having an ex-DB banker as Chancellor. The amount of damage those two firms have caused ........
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
(Insufficient pineapple in the diet to really work mind)
My friend’s brother was also at St John’s at the same time as Burgon and that Burgon was very good at English literature but he was a proper lefty (his uncle was a Labour MP) and that Burgon engaged in some shocking logic defying positions to support a left wing agenda, which has become worse with age.
He may have done it to impress a lady as well but he ended up as Chairman of CULC.
So the issue isn’t Cambridge letting in a duffer but the law firms that hired Burgon.
A trading bet is one where you believe the market price will change for some reason. So, for example, you might believe that Tottenham's implied probability for the winning the PL is absolutely right, but you notice they have three away games in six days ahead of them. You think that they're likely to drop points, and therefore the market price is likely to move against them in the next week. So you sell them for the PL expecting to buy them back in a week's time at better price.
However he would have to see off the likes of Javid, Raab and Patel if they are still around and also face the problem he would be seeking an unprecedented third decade of the Tories in power, something they have not achieved since Lord Liverpool.
Despite the current uselessness of the opposition by then even Labour and the LDs might have got their act together
A lot of idiots go to Cambridge (or Oxford or Harvard), and a lot of very smart people either didn't go to University at all, or went somewhere without the history or the reputation.
It turns out that people develop at different rates. Top of the primary school class at six years old does not mean likely CEO.
https://nyti.ms/2Q0slra
Moreover, it didn’t exactly last for the full decade.
Look at South America. Those countries that buckled to Trump's pressure in 2017/18 and introduced voluntary export controls (Brazil and Argentina) have been royally shat upon by Trump when he chucked tariffs on them both.
They won't make that mistake again: China keeps its promises and Trump will have just moved two likely Western/US allies into the China camp.
Surely every bet you have you believe the market price would change in the direction you are betting, else you'd wait for the bigger price?
Having members at the forefront for and against any debate is probably what you want from a university.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MhX3ez_Onvo
Ultimately, you can make money by either correctly forecasting probabilities, or by correctly forecasting how the market will move.
If you think that Buttigieg will win Iowa, you should buy him for the nomination because the market will likely over-react to the news of his victory, irrespective of whether he has any realistic shot at the nomination.
Personally, I think there is a role for both kids of betting.
If Boris is a success he has 5-10 years as PM, by which time Rishi will be a senior Cabinet minister while the Javids and Patels of the world will be long in the tooth
If Boris is a failure then you are likely not getting a Tory next PM anyway
You can’t make sensible public policy just by looking at a spreadsheet.
Almost as generous as a review that gives The Last Jedi one star out of five rather than a minus number.
I think @TheScreamingEagles meant to say that we need more good lawyers in government.
You tip up at Cambridge on day one and are just in awe of the place. Days two to quite a few. You're in the bar.
Day's beyond that you get to think. Frolic in the thought of others. Jive to your own intellectual thing.
If you finish up thinking Intelligent Design is wise and good, then I'm listening.
Ferfuxsake.
Floor plans of MI6's central London headquarters were lost by building contractors during a refurbishment.
The documents, most of which were recovered inside the building, held sensitive information on the layout, including entry and exit points.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50927854
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Btb8gLy3-E
He worked on a project in a prison in the U.K. a decade or so ago. As expected, all copies of the plans were numbered and watermarked, had to be signed in an out, had to be kept in a certain safe and viewed in certain rooms, computers containing digital copies couldn’t access a network etc etc.
How the hell do you lose copies of plans to such a secure building, and how the hell were the plans even allowed off the site in the first place?
He actually told me that he had done the right thing - the fact that it was a disaster was outside his remit.
He replaced a group of... basically gun nuts in the MoD who had done ammo procurement up to that point.
The whole thing is worth reading, but the contortions revealed on pages 42-44 are something else.
Incredibly, Walker is now claiming that the judgement went against Turley because the judge told her off for not sharing a series of WhatsApp messages in a timely manner (P. 72) - and is editing Wikipedia to that effect, without mentioning that the judge considered the fact she was mistaken did not mean she had lied to the court as Walker and Unite repeatedly and publicly claimed.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/cats-review-sinister-all-time-disaster-no-one-emerges-unscathed/
(b) Boris is a slightly less rapid failure and is dumped by the electorate in 2024. Chance: a bit higher. Result: a non-Conservative is next PM.
(c) Boris is a relative success and hands over in the next Parliament. Chance: reasonable. Result: someone who is not currently a senior Cabinet Minister becomes PM.
Personally, I'd simply sell the favourites right now.
It was good that Dr Wakefield questioned the assumptions about what caused autism. It was bad that he broke medical ethics rules. It was appalling that he continued pushing his agenda without mentioning his financial interest, or after the giant epistimological studies (Yokohama) proved way beyond reasonable doubt that multi-part vaccines didn't cause autism,.
It's not that detail that keeps me up at night though!
Condolences to all those on the list who had sad news this year.
Ideas in academia work because they're ideas. Politicians sometimes nab those ideas and dress them up like truth. That tends not to work out.
I'd suggest the whole field of Economics falls foul or this.
But it's all based on my views as to the likelihood of who will win, and I update my internal forecasts all the time. So, I've raised my Biden likelihood pretty much every day for the last two weeks, while Buttigieg has faded somewhat. It's pretty pure, and seems likely to make me a reasonable sum.
What it doesn't do is forecast short-term moves. If a price spikes away from my central forecast it dabbles. It does a small amount of market making, and regularly has offers in on a number of candidates. It doesn't really making trading bets, it makes bets based on when the price is away from what I regard as the real probability of an event taking place.
(Article here)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/27/tom-watson-i-quit-because-of-labour-brutality
Other than to think what was he doing hanging on so long ?
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-years-honours-list-2019