politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Septuagenarians continue to dominate the Democratic nomination

Pulpstar said:

Looking through constituency results I'm actually coming to the conclusion that Brexit was a bigger issue than Corbyn.

Rotherham, 14376 Labour votes. Even with a sub Foot leader that's scarcely believable.

My working understanding is that where Labour lost seats, it was mostly about Brexit & that once the Conservatives had gone all in for Brexit that was probably inevitable. The problem for Labour was that they didn’t make equivalent gains in Remain constituencies, and /that/ is down to Corbyn.

(Corbyn also drove losses in the north too, but Brexit was the bigger influence.)

Any counter-arguments to the above?

Love that this came out 30 minutes after Big Brain Burgon spent all his time on Politics Today blaming Brexit.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1207288133278150658

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

RandallFlagg said:

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

Are you a member? If so what's your view of the mood of other members, and their desire for a Continuity Corbyn candidate?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

HYUFD said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

SandyRentool said:

Thornberry standing. Horray! Time to get the flags out!

To me, she epitomises what has gone wrong with the Labour Party. She'll be below RLB on my ballot - if she gets that far.

I agree but for me RLB will still be last. Johnson will be very confident of winning in 2024 with either of them there for different reasons. So it comes down to whether you want the cult to consolidate its grip in the meantime, or not.

RLB would be Labour's IDS, no hugely negative reaction but no positive reaction either, in fact some would probably fail to even recognise she was Labour leader

The parallel with IDS fails, not least because unlike the Tories, my lot never gets rid of our failing leaders until they have lost at least one election.

Though IDS probably would have done as well as Howard in 2005

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

I know it's not exactly news, but Richard Burgon is getting destroyed on the Daily Politics.

Only metaphorically. Unfortunately. There's never a coyote with an anvil when you need one.

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Who will the first rebel on Europe be ?

I reckon Craig McKinley when we sell Gibraltar off to Spain.

Boris would be toppled as Tory leader in 5 minutes if he even contemplated that

Toppled by who? Even if we accept the Falklands has some totemic value to older Conservatives, why should a party now so careless about breaking up the United Kingdom go to the wall to retain Gibraltar?

The Tories made clear in their manifesto they would ban indyref2 in Scotland so of course no compromise with Spain over Gibraltar.

Gibraltar is also over 90% pro UK unlike Northern Ireland which is 50 50 at best

The Tories also said that putting a border in the Irish Sea was nothing a Tory PM would ever do.

It's touching that you still believe him.

You may have missed a post recently wherein I said that I thought (and think) your work on behalf of the Cons and your comments on here giving your views were admirable. It and they was and were. But c'mon, we Remainers know the score with BoJo. He is 1,000,000 times better than the alternative but he is still a lying sleazeball.

Given the DUP no longer have a majority of Northern Ireland seats and only 43% of Northern Irish voters voted for Unionist parties last week compared to 54% of Scots, Boris was right to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland that would have only hastened pressure for reunification.

Thankyou for the first half of your other comments

He has put a border in the Irish Sea which sees a clear pathway towards reunification. It is something he said, and I quote, "no Tory PM would ever do". And he did it.

There is a confrontational path to a united Ireland (a hard border with the Republic, for example), and a regulatory and de facto path to a united Ireland (a border in the Irish Sea treating the island of Ireland as one entity). Boris opted for the latter.

The median Northern Ireland voter votes Alliance now and they back the Union so long as a hard border with the Republic of Ireland is avoided, thus yet again Boris has saved Brexit and the Union

JohnLilburne said:

SandyRentool said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1207275716649390080?s=20

So it is now priced in that Bozo is lying.

In a negotiation it is normal, indeed required, to lie.

Union : our members won't accept less than 5%. Cost of living, you made lots of profit last year, etc

Employer:we can't go above 3%. Trading conditions not good etc

So when they agree on 4% do we berate both sides for lying? I think not.

Boris has simply made an opening gambit that he wants out by 31 Dec. That can be changed in if necessary (simply by passing another act of Parliament).

It simply is not possible to conduct a negotiation without lying.

I'm not sure that's true. The statement "Here are my red lines. If you do not meet them I will walk away" would seem to be a counter-example.

HYUFD said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Who will the first rebel on Europe be ?

I reckon Craig McKinley when we sell Gibraltar off to Spain.

Boris would be toppled as Tory leader in 5 minutes if he even contemplated that

Toppled by who? Even if we accept the Falklands has some totemic value to older Conservatives, why should a party now so careless about breaking up the United Kingdom go to the wall to retain Gibraltar?

The Tories made clear in their manifesto they would ban indyref2 in Scotland so of course no compromise with Spain over Gibraltar.

Gibraltar is also over 90% pro UK unlike Northern Ireland which is 50 50 at best

The Tories also said that putting a border in the Irish Sea was nothing a Tory PM would ever do.

It's touching that you still believe him.

You may have missed a post rec

Given the DUP no longer have a majority of Northern Ireland seats and only 43% of Northern Irish voters voted for Unionist parties last week compared to 54% of Scots, Boris was right to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland that would have only hastened pressure for reunification.

Thankyou for the first half of your other comments

He has put a border in the Irish Sea which sees a clear pathway towards reunification. It is something he said, and I quote, "no Tory PM would ever do". And he did it.

There is a confrontational path to a united Ireland (a hard border with the Republic, for example), and a regulatory and de facto path to a united Ireland (a border in the Irish Sea treating the island of Ireland as one entity). Boris opted for the latter.

The median Northern Ireland voter votes Alliance now and they back the Union so long as a hard border with the Republic of Ireland is avoided, thus yet again Boris has saved Brexit and the Union

He has put a border between the island of Ireland and Great Britain. The DUP has been betrayed. What do the DUP want? To maintain Northern Ireland as a part of the United Kingdom. Boris said he would do this but then created a border in the Irish Sea. The DUP wouldn't feel betrayed if he had saved the Union. He has set out a clear pathway to a united Ireland. So no, he hasn't saved the Union. Quite the opposite.

Anorak said:

RandallFlagg said:

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

Are you a member? If so what's your view of the mood of other members, and their desire for a Continuity Corbyn candidate?

Honestly? My suspicion is that if Pidcock had retained her seat, or if Rayner had decided to run for the leadership, one of those two would be the next Labour leader. But with RLB running as the Corbynite candidate, those of us who are sane actually have a chance of getting our party back. I think a number of members who voted for Corbyn aren't particularly enthused by RLB, and are actually open to other candidates.
I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types. And while I got the impression hard-core Corbynistas would vote for her, they weren't that impressed by her at all. If that's the case amongst the true believers - which would be her core support - I honestly think it's possible a non-Corbynite candidate can beat her.

HYUFD said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Who will the first rebel on Europe be ?

I reckon Craig McKinley when we sell Gibraltar off to Spain.

Boris would be toppled as Tory leader in 5 minutes if he even contemplated that

Toppled by who? Even if we accept the Falklands has some totemic value to older Conservatives, why should a party now so careless about breaking up the United Kingdom go to the wall to retain Gibraltar?

The Tories made clear in their manifesto they would ban indyref2 in Scotland so of course no compromise with Spain over Gibraltar.

Gibraltar is also over 90% pro UK unlike Northern Ireland which is 50 50 at best

The Tories also said that putting a border in the Irish Sea was nothing a Tory PM would ever do.

It's touching that you still believe him.

You may have missed a post recently wherein I said that I thought (and think) your work on behalf of the Cons and your comments on here giving your views were admirable. It and they was and were. But c'mon, we Remainers know the score with BoJo. He is 1,000,000 times better than the alternative but he is still a lying sleazeball.

Given the DUP no longer have a majority of Northern Ireland seats and only 43% of Northern Irish voters voted for Unionist parties last week compared to 54% of Scots, Boris was right to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland that would have only hastened pressure for reunification.

Thankyou for the first half of your other comments

He has put a border in the Irish Sea which sees a clear pathway towards reunification. It is something he said, and I quote, "no Tory PM would ever do". And he did it.

There is a confrontational path to a united Ireland (a hard border with the Republic, for example), and a regulatory and de facto path to a united Ireland (a border in the Irish Sea treating the island of Ireland as one entity). Boris opted for the latter.

The median Northern Ireland voter votes Alliance now and they back the Union so long as a hard border with the Republic of Ireland is avoided, thus yet again Boris has saved Brexit and the Union

It is invidious to state that "a hard border with the Republic has been avoided" without mentioning the Irish Sea border.

TheScreamingEagles said:

BOOM

Emily Thornberry has declared she is entering the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn, revealing she warned the Labour leadership that backing a Brexit election would be an “act of catastrophic political folly”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/18/emily-thornberry-throws-her-hat-into-ring-for-labour-leadership

Wasn’t fear of losing why they didn’t hold a referendum on Lisbon?

That turned out well...

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

TOPPING said:

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Who will the first rebel on Europe be ?

I reckon Craig McKinley when we sell Gibraltar off to Spain.

Boris would be toppled as Tory leader in 5 minutes if he even contemplated that

Toppled by who? Even if we accept the Falklands has some totemic value to older Conservatives, why should a party now so careless about breaking up the United Kingdom go to the wall to retain Gibraltar?

The Tories made clear in their manifesto they would ban indyref2 in Scotland so of course no compromise with Spain over Gibraltar.

Gibraltar is also over 90% pro UK unlike Northern Ireland which is 50 50 at best

The Tories also said that putting a border in the Irish Sea was nothing a Tory PM would ever do.

It's touching that you still believe him.

You may have missed a post rec

Given the DUP no longer have a majority of Northern Ireland seats y hastened pressure for reunification.

Thankyou for the first half of your other comments

He has put a border in the Irish Sea which sees a clear pathway towards reunification. It is something he said, and I quote, "no Tory PM would ever do". And he or the latter.

The median Northern Ireland voter votes Alliance now and they back the Union so long as a hard border with the Republic of Ireland is avoided, thus yet again Boris has saved Brexit and the Union

He has put a border between the island of Ireland and Great Britain. The DUP has been betrayed. What do the DUP want? To maintain Northern Ireland as a part of the United Kingdom. Boris said he would do this but then created a border in the Irish Sea. The DUP wouldn't feel betrayed if he had saved the Union. He has set out a clear pathway to a united Ireland. So no, he hasn't saved the Union. Quite the opposite.

Nope, utterly wrong yet again.

The DUP are a minority party in Northern Ireland now representing just 8 out of 18 NI seats.

The choice was thus either a hard border with the Republic of Ireland leading inevitably to Irish reunification with perhaps the DUP declaring UDI in Antrim or else what Boris has done keeping the UK together in the only way the majority of Northern Ireland voters would accept ie avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland and thus also protecting the Good Friday Agreement.

There is no longer a Unionist majority in Northern Ireland, that is fact, there is still in Scotland

JohnLilburne said:

SandyRentool said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1207275716649390080?s=20

So it is now priced in that Bozo is lying.

In a negotiation it is normal, indeed required, to lie.

Union : our members won't accept less than 5%. Cost of living, you made lots of profit last year, etc

Employer:we can't go above 3%. Trading conditions not good etc

So when they agree on 4% do we berate both sides for lying? I think not.

Boris has simply made an opening gambit that he wants out by 31 Dec. That can be changed in if necessary (simply by passing another act of Parliament).

It simply is not possible to conduct a negotiation without lying.

You clearly know very little about professional negotiation, or else you are very out of date. Lying is not necessary in negotiation, indeed it is often counter productive. It is preferable that the other side thinks you have different options that you might exercise. That is absolutely not the same as lying.

RandallFlagg said:

I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types.

Was it a long march through the institutions?

TOPPING said:

RandallFlagg said:

Anorak said:

RandallFlagg said:

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

Are you a member? If so what's your view of the mood of other members, and their desire for a Continuity Corbyn candidate?

Honestly? My suspicion is that if Pidcock had retained her seat, or if Rayner had decided to run for the leadership, one of those two would be the next Labour leader. But with RLB running as the Corbynite candidate, those of us who are sane actually have a chance of getting our party back. I think a number of members who voted for Corbyn aren't particularly enthused by RLB, and are actually open to other candidates.
I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types. And while I got the impression hard-core Corbynistas would vote for her, they weren't that impressed by her at all. If that's the case amongst the true believers - which would be her core support - I honestly think it's possible a non-Corbynite candidate can beat her.

If I may ask, apart from presumably Highgate Cemetery, where does a socialist walking group walk?

Kinder Scout.

TOPPING said:

RandallFlagg said:

Anorak said:

RandallFlagg said:

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

Are you a member? If so what's your view of the mood of other members, and their desire for a Continuity Corbyn candidate?

Honestly? My suspicion is that if Pidcock had retained her seat, or if Rayner had decided to run for the leadership, one of those two would be the next Labour leader. But with RLB running as the Corbynite candidate, those of us who are sane actually have a chance of getting our party back. I think a number of members who voted for Corbyn aren't particularly enthused by RLB, and are actually open to other candidates.
I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types. And while I got the impression hard-core Corbynistas would vote for her, they weren't that impressed by her at all. If that's the case amongst the true believers - which would be her core support - I honestly think it's possible a non-Corbynite candidate can beat her.

If I may ask, apart from presumably Highgate Cemetery, where does a socialist walking group walk?

Bits of the countryside where there was some kind of mining history. I live in Durham, so there's obviously plenty of that around here.

RandallFlagg said:

TOPPING said:

RandallFlagg said:

Anorak said:

RandallFlagg said:

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

Are you a member? If so what's your view of the mood of other members, and their desire for a Continuity Corbyn candidate?

Honestly? My suspicion is that if Pidcock had retained her seat, or if Rayner had decided to run for the leadership, one of those two would be the next Labour leader. But with RLB running as the Corbynite candidate, those of us who are sane actually have a chance of getting our party back. I think a number of members who voted for Corbyn aren't particularly enthused by RLB, and are actually open to other candidates.
I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types. And while I got the impression hard-core Corbynistas would vote for her, they weren't that impressed by her at all. If that's the case amongst the true believers - which would be her core support - I honestly think it's possible a non-Corbynite candidate can beat her.

If I may ask, apart from presumably Highgate Cemetery, where does a socialist walking group walk?

Bits of the countryside where there was some kind of mining history. I live in Durham, so there's obviously plenty of that around here.

If I remember the plot of "The Stand" correctly, I'm not sure somebody called "Randall Flagg" should speak so lightly about walking...

HYUFD said:

Nope, utterly wrong yet again.

The DUP are a minority party in Northern Ireland now representing just 8 out of 18 NI seats.

The choice was thus either a hard border with the Republic of Ireland leading inevitably to Irish reunification with perhaps the DUP declaring UDI in Antrim or else what Boris has done keeping the UK together in the only way the majority of Northern Ireland voters would accept ie avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland and thus also protecting the Good Friday Agreement.

There is no longer a Unionist majority in Northern Ireland, that is fact, there is still in Scotland

Sadly and despite your no doubt entertaining trip to see the sights of Antrim and talk to the Bushmills sales reps, you have not gained an understanding of Northern Ireland.

You also get the terminology wrong. By putting a border down the Irish Sea, something he said "no Tory PM" would ever do, and which even Theresa May didn't dare attempt, he is keeping Great Britain, not the United Kingdom together. He is lumping in Northern Ireland, regulatorily, with the Republic and that means a path to reunification.

I'm not sure whether you are just trying to prove my point by saying there is no Unionist majority in Northern Ireland, or whether you are also agreeing with the ERG that the Union is over?

What Boris has done, cheered on by the ERG and pretend Tories like yourself, is to endanger the Union.

JohnLilburne said:

SandyRentool said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1207275716649390080?s=20

So it is now priced in that Bozo is lying.

In a negotiation it is normal, indeed required, to lie.

Union : our members won't accept less than 5%. Cost of living, you made lots of profit last year, etc

Employer:we can't go above 3%. Trading conditions not good etc

So when they agree on 4% do we berate both sides for lying? I think not.

Boris has simply made an opening gambit that he wants out by 31 Dec. That can be changed in if necessary (simply by passing another act of Parliament).

It simply is not possible to conduct a negotiation without lying.

It's not possible to negotiate well without convincing the other side that your red lines really are set in stone. You may need to lie to do that, but if you really are prepared to follow through, you won't. The best negotiators have to be prepared to lie, and we shouldn't hold that against them. However, it doesn't mean that they are lying.

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

RandallFlagg said:

Anorak said:

RandallFlagg said:

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

Are you a member? If so what's your view of the mood of other members, and their desire for a Continuity Corbyn candidate?

Honestly? My suspicion is that if Pidcock had retained her seat, or if Rayner had decided to run for the leadership, one of those two would be the next Labour leader. But with RLB running as the Corbynite candidate, those of us who are sane actually have a chance of getting our party back. I think a number of members who voted for Corbyn aren't particularly enthused by RLB, and are actually open to other candidates.
I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types. And while I got the impression hard-core Corbynistas would vote for her, they weren't that impressed by her at all. If that's the case amongst the true believers - which would be her core support - I honestly think it's possible a non-Corbynite candidate can beat her.

If I may ask, apart from presumably Highgate Cemetery, where does a socialist walking group walk?

Kinder Scout.

Wasn't there a similar thing along some bits of coastline?

Discussion on radio yesterday that there was a lot of feedback on doorsteps that Jo Swinson was too young to be PM. Argument was put that she isn't actually that young but she just looks and comes across as young.

I do wonder if exactly the same thing is going to be thought about RLB. And that it could well stop her becoming leader, let alone PM.

I know everyone says Labour membership are now all Corbynites but Owen Smith got 40% and he was a very weak candidate. Add in that Lab has now lost twice under Corbyn and I think even left wing members are going to look hard at electability.

We'll have to see how RLB is perceived but I think it's quite likely she is not going to come across as having the necessary maturity and gravitas. The contrast with Starmer is going to be very obvious.

kyf_100 said:

RandallFlagg said:

I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types.

Was it a long march through the institutions?

There are some weird people on this site.

HYUFD said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Who will the first rebel on Europe be ?

I reckon Craig McKinley when we sell Gibraltar off to Spain.

Boris would be toppled as Tory leader in 5 minutes if he even contemplated that

Toppled by who? Even if we accept the Falklands has some totemic value to older Conservatives, why should a party now so careless about breaking up the United Kingdom go to the wall to retain Gibraltar?

The Tories made clear in their manifesto they would ban indyref2 in Scotland so of course no compromise with Spain over Gibraltar.

Gibraltar is also over 90% pro UK unlike Northern Ireland which is 50 50 at best

Those troops sent in to Catalonia need to be redeployed somewhere...

Casino_Royale said:

What is the peaceful path to reunification, if indeed that’s what is desired?

I don’t see 30-40% of the population (especially the ultra Unionist hardcore) taking it lying down even if 55% of the NI electorate for it. Hell, even calling a border poll risks restarting violence.

It would also increase the population of the
RoI by a third, which would have to pay to both secure it and subsidise it, and it would create at least 60 extra seats in the Dail that would be fractiously dictated by the sectarian nature of NI politics, but also hold the balance of power in their STV system.

Just what exactly is in it for Eire?

This is one of those things that they’re in favour of in theory, but the present arrangements suit them very well in practice.

Well if you start with the status quo ante then there was a lot of cross-border cooperation and many bodies that, as a result of the Belfast Agreement, came into being which eroded the hard lines of difference between the Republic and the North. The peaceful path is to align more and more elements North and South such that apart from that hardcore you mention (and they aren't going anywhere), it becomes more and more accepted that there is no distinction between the two. Obviously, to anyone remotely able to analyse this, the UK, of all places, treating the island of Ireland as a unitary region aids that greatly.

Fishing said:

isam said:

Anorak said:

Love that this came out 30 minutes after Big Brain Burgon spent all his time on Politics Today blaming Brexit.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1207288133278150658

I was talking to my Dad about it yesterday and said when you think about it now, it seems utterly ridiculous that anyone thought the UK would elect a teetotal, vegetarian, who doesn't like the Queen, wouldn't want to have nuclear weapons, supported the IRA etc... People want to see something of themselves in their leader I think, Corbyn just has too many niche views to be electable

A third of the electorate disagreed with you. And if Boris had less charisma, it could have been more.

On the point about leadership vs Brexit vs economic policy - not sure how you can separate those. The leadership decided the economic policy and fudged the Brexit policy. Also Brexit is a matter of economics. So the poll seems flawed to me.

Loads of those 43% are never going to vote for Corbyn anyway. Plenty of the 17% would happily tick the Labour box and barely notice who the leader was if they didn't think their vote to leave the EU was going to be gerrymandered away.

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

RandallFlagg said:

Anorak said:

RandallFlagg said:

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

Are you a member? If so what's your view of the mood of other members, and their desire for a Continuity Corbyn candidate?

Honestly? My suspicion is that if Pidcock had retained her seat, or if Rayner had decided to run for the leadership, one of those two would be the next Labour leader. But with RLB running as the Corbynite candidate, those of us who are sane actually have a chance of getting our party back. I think a number of members who voted for Corbyn aren't particularly enthused by RLB, and are actually open to other candidates.
I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types. And while I got the impression hard-core Corbynistas would vote for her, they weren't that impressed by her at all. If that's the case amongst the true believers - which would be her core support - I honestly think it's possible a non-Corbynite candidate can beat her.

If I may ask, apart from presumably Highgate Cemetery, where does a socialist walking group walk?

Kinder Scout.

Wasn't there a similar thing along some bits of coastline?

You could also add the Tolpuddle Village Trail and the Diggers' Trail.

Borrowdale, up in the Lakes. Although the more vitriolic socialist may prefer Cross Fell, over in the Pennines.

MikeL said:

Discussion on radio yesterday that there was a lot of feedback on doorsteps that Jo Swinson was too young to be PM. Argument was put that she isn't actually that young but she just looks and comes across as young.

I do wonder if exactly the same thing is going to be thought about RLB. And that it could well stop her becoming leader, let alone PM.

I know everyone says Labour membership are now all Corbynites but Owen Smith got 40% and he was a very weak candidate. Add in that Lab has now lost twice under Corbyn and I think even left wing members are going to look hard at electability.

We'll have to see how RLB is perceived but I think it's quite likely she is not going to come across as having the necessary maturity and gravitas. The contrast with Starmer is going to be very obvious.

Agree with you on RLB. By contrast, my wife and I watched Nandy on Newsnight last night and were very impressed.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/lisa-nandy-labour-leader-voters-considering-running-1344493

If Nandy can keep her head down a bit, and let Thornberry and Starmer do the heavy lifting of attacking Corbyn to draw the flak of Momentum, then I think that Nandy has the potential to come through the middle as the "unity" candidate.

Anorak said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

RandallFlagg said:

Anorak said:

RandallFlagg said:

Thornberry would be a disaster, but I'd reluctantly vote for her over RLB as well. There is no hope for Labour until it's been wretched from the grasp of Jon Lansman and Len McCluskey.

Are you a member? If so what's your view of the mood of other members, and their desire for a Continuity Corbyn candidate?

Honestly? My suspicion is that if Pidcock had retained her seat, or if Rayner had decided to run for the leadership, one of those two would be the next Labour leader. But with RLB running as the Corbynite candidate, those of us who are sane actually have a chance of getting our party back. I think a number of members who voted for Corbyn aren't particularly enthused by RLB, and are actually open to other candidates.
I went on a socialist walking group the weekend, full of Corbynista academic types. And while I got the impression hard-core Corbynistas would vote for her, they weren't that impressed by her at all. If that's the case amongst the true believers - which would be her core support - I honestly think it's possible a non-Corbynite candidate can beat her.

If I may ask, apart from presumably Highgate Cemetery, where does a socialist walking group walk?

Kinder Scout.

Wasn't there a similar thing along some bits of coastline?

You could also add the Tolpuddle Village Trail and the Diggers' Trail.

Borrowdale, up in the Lakes. Although the more vitriolic socialist may prefer Cross Fell, over in the Pennines.

I think that there is a march from Jarrow?

Regarding graduates from working class backgrounds, I wonder whether the fact that they are more successful, academically and financially, than their parents creates a feeling of guilt, and that living far away from their home town for post Uni career is handy as it means they escape the tension that exists between them and the non graduate working class they left behind, which includes their families.

It would explain why they feel the need to double down on their roots despite choosing to live far away from them, and why they have little concept of what it is like to live as the people they grew up with still do, and maybe why people at the extremes of the class system have more in common with each other electorally than they do with those in between them

isam said:

Regarding graduates from working class backgrounds, I wonder whether the fact that they are more successful, academically and financially, than their parents creates a feeling of guilt, and that living far away from their home town for post Uni career is handy as it means they escape the tension that exists between them and the non graduate working class they left behind, which includes their families.

It would explain why they feel the need to double down on their roots despite choosing to live far away from them, and why they have little concept of what it is like to live as the people they grew up with still do, and maybe why people at the extremes of the class system have more in common with each other electorally than they do with those in between them

Sounds convoluted tbh. I would have thought the parents would be absolutely delighted.

isam said:

Regarding graduates from working class backgrounds, I wonder whether the fact that they are more successful, academically and financially, than their parents creates a feeling of guilt, and that living far away from their home town for post Uni career is handy as it means they escape the tension that exists between them and the non graduate working class they left behind, which includes their families.

It would explain why they feel the need to double down on their roots despite choosing to live far away from them, and why they have little concept of what it is like to live as the people they grew up with still do, and maybe why people at the extremes of the class system have more in common with each other electorally than they do with those in between them

Hmmm. Sounds like the topic for a Social Science PhD.

I certainly had a disconnect from my wider family, but not a feeling of guilt. Certainly something to give more thought to.

SandyRentool said:

isam said:

Regarding graduates from working class backgrounds, I wonder whether the fact that they are more successful, academically and financially, than their parents creates a feeling of guilt, and that living far away from their home town for post Uni career is handy as it means they escape the tension that exists between them and the non graduate working class they left behind, which includes their families.

It would explain why they feel the need to double down on their roots despite choosing to live far away from them, and why they have little concept of what it is like to live as the people they grew up with still do, and maybe why people at the extremes of the class system have more in common with each other electorally than they do with those in between them

Hmmm. Sounds like the topic for a Social Science PhD.

I certainly had a disconnect from my wider family, but not a feeling of guilt. Certainly something to give more thought to.

You mean you went to university when, after Eton, they wanted you to take over the estate?

https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1207298314737213443?s=20

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1207303448607236096?s=20

Nigel_Foremain said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BOOM

Emily Thornberry has declared she is entering the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn, revealing she warned the Labour leadership that backing a Brexit election would be an “act of catastrophic political folly”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/18/emily-thornberry-throws-her-hat-into-ring-for-labour-leadership

Wasn’t fear of losing why they didn’t hold a referendum on Lisbon?

That turned out well...

Brexit. That turned out well. Scoff!

Apropos that, when are you changing your PB username to Nigel_Forejoin?

Charles said:

rkrkrk said:

Cyclefree said:

Artist said:

Thornberry must know she has no chance. Can only think she is trying to keep a top job in the next Shadow Cabinet.

And how is her suing a former colleague going to help her chances?

Why would you want to be part of this shitshow in any case? She hardly distinguished herself as Shadow FS.

Not suing could be seen as admitting it was true. It was her suing that made me think she was planning to run actually.

She’s just threatening to sue / consulting lawyers

Smart move to keep the issue 'live' and in everyone's minds as she campaigns*. It will strike people as true given her previous comments (e.g. the flag thing), and by the time it's resolved - even in her favour - the damage is done.

*this is sarcasm

Anybody watch the darts last night?

how could so many working class male bigots have roared a young woman on to breaking a glass ceiling?

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/IainDale/status/1207303448607236096?s=20

"Honouring the referendum result"

Corbyn has to be a fifth columnist in the Labour Party. Is there another sane explanation>?

I am so looking forward to Emily Thornbery getting elected as leader of the Labour Party.

And to every one of the WWC putting up a cross of St. George with BORIS written across the centre of it.

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

I think Labour's combined leadership and EU position has done something which has been a long running issue for the Tories.

It's (For electoral purposes) expunged the ghost of Thatcher in England's old coalfields. Seismic.

Millions of new voters now have the blue taint.

isam said:

Regarding graduates from working class backgrounds, I wonder whether the fact that they are more successful, academically and financially, than their parents creates a feeling of guilt, and that living far away from their home town for post Uni career is handy as it means they escape the tension that exists between them and the non graduate working class they left behind, which includes their families.

It would explain why they feel the need to double down on their roots despite choosing to live far away from them, and why they have little concept of what it is like to live as the people they grew up with still do, and maybe why people at the extremes of the class system have more in common with each other electorally than they do with those in between them

Hmmph.

(Do you really not know any working-class graduates? I will never get over the social mix of this site... )

Ok, answering your questions.
* Guilt? No. Pride? Yes. My parents were well aware of the burdens of being poor and that whole working-class-escaoe thing was a big thing when their contemporaries had way too much industrial injuries/deaths. We've forgotten how dangerous it is to be poor.
* Choosing to live far away? It's more a case of "you go where the jobs are". Your choices are only as good as your options.
* Little concept to live as the others still do? As I've mentioned before it's a big family (siblings, uncles, aunties, cousins, nieces, nephews,... well over thirty and rising) so they let you know about stuff, no probs, oh Gods do they let you know. Xmas is a scrum in my Dad's house, it's only small..
* Why do upper have more in common with the lower than the middle? That's easy: Darwinian competition. Dogs don't compete with cats, they compete with other dogs to prey upon the cats. Cats don't compete with dogs, they compete with other cats to survive the dogs. He upper do not overlap with the lower and there is no competition, so no conflict. But the lower middle class compete with the upper working class, and the upper middle class compete with the lower upper class. Hence the conflict.

viewcode said:

isam said:

Regarding graduates from working class backgrounds, I wonder whether the fact that they are more successful, academically and financially, than their parents creates a feeling of guilt, and that living far away from their home town for post Uni career is handy as it means they escape the tension that exists between them and the non graduate working class they left behind, which includes their families.

It would explain why they feel the need to double down on their roots despite choosing to live far away from them, and why they have little concept of what it is like to live as the people they grew up with still do, and maybe why people at the extremes of the class system have more in common with each other electorally than they do with those in between them

Hmmph.

(Do you really not know any working-class graduates? I will never get over the social mix of this site... )

Ok, answering your questions.
* Guilt? No. Pride? Yes. My parents were well aware of the burdens of being poor and that whole working-class-escaoe thing was a big thing when their contemporaries had way too much industrial injuries/deaths. We've forgotten how dangerous it is to be poor.
* Choosing to live far away? It's more a case of "you go where the jobs are". Your choices are only as good as your options.
* Little concept to live as the others still do? As I've mentioned before it's a big family (siblings, uncles, aunties, cousins, nieces, nephews,... well over thirty and rising) so they let you know about stuff, no probs, oh Gods do they let you know. Xmas is a scrum in my Dad's house, it's only small..
* Why do upper have more in common with the lower than the middle? That's easy: Darwinian competition. Dogs don't compete with cats, they compete with other dogs to prey upon the cats. Cats don't compete with dogs, they compete with other cats to survive the dogs. He upper do not overlap with the lower and there is no competition, so no conflict. But the lower middle class compete with the upper working class, and the upper middle class compete with the lower upper class. Hence the conflict.

Ha well I would expect working class graduates to pooh pooh my theory!! Although one has emailed to say they agree

Where did I say I didn't know any by the way? I know loads although there are none in my close circle

SandyRentool said:

TOPPING said:

SandyRentool said:

isam said:

Regarding graduates from working class backgrounds, I wonder whether the fact that they are more successful, academically and financially, than their parents creates a feeling of guilt, and that living far away from their home town for post Uni career is handy as it means they escape the tension that exists between them and the non graduate working class they left behind, which includes their families.

It would explain why they feel the need to double down on their roots despite choosing to live far away from them, and why they have little concept of what it is like to live as the people they grew up with still do, and maybe why people at the extremes of the class system have more in common with each other electorally than they do with those in between them

Hmmm. Sounds like the topic for a Social Science PhD.

I certainly had a disconnect from my wider family, but not a feeling of guilt. Certainly something to give more thought to.

You mean you went to university when, after Eton, they wanted you to take over the estate?

When I worked in Windsor we used to have a squash club that used the courts at Eton school.

So yes, I have been to Eton. And I did live on estate. A Council estate.

How very Eton Rifles....

"and some of the kids said they'll be back next week." You?

Cooper just gone 4th favourite at 15-1 ahead of Phillips.

Fishing said:

isam said:

Anorak said:

Love that this came out 30 minutes after Big Brain Burgon spent all his time on Politics Today blaming Brexit.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1207288133278150658

I was talking to my Dad about it yesterday and said when you think about it now, it seems utterly ridiculous that anyone thought the UK would elect a teetotal, vegetarian, who doesn't like the Queen, wouldn't want to have nuclear weapons, supported the IRA etc... People want to see something of themselves in their leader I think, Corbyn just has too many niche views to be electable

A third of the electorate disagreed with you. And if Boris had less charisma, it could have been more.

On the point about leadership vs Brexit vs economic policy - not sure how you can separate those. The leadership decided the economic policy and fudged the Brexit policy. Also Brexit is a matter of economics. So the poll seems flawed to me.

The drivers of Brexit are not economics, they are cultural.

Looks like the field is going to be pretty big which will lead to low 1st preference scores across the board but on balance I think that makes it harder for RLB as she won't be transfer friendly.

eg Cooper 1st prefs will go Nandy 2nd pref and vice versa.

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

Hmmph.

(Do you really not know any working-class graduates? I will never get over the social mix of this site... )

Ok, answering your questions.
* Guilt? No. Pride? Yes. My parents were well aware of the burdens of being poor and that whole working-class-escaoe thing was a big thing when their contemporaries had way too much industrial injuries/deaths. We've forgotten how dangerous it is to be poor.
* Choosing to live far away? It's more a case of "you go where the jobs are". Your choices are only as good as your options.
* Little concept to live as the others still do? As I've mentioned before it's a big family (siblings, uncles, aunties, cousins, nieces, nephews,... well over thirty and rising) so they let you know about stuff, no probs, oh Gods do they let you know. Xmas is a scrum in my Dad's house, it's only small..
* Why do upper have more in common with the lower than the middle? That's easy: Darwinian competition. Dogs don't compete with cats, they compete with other dogs to prey upon the cats. Cats don't compete with dogs, they compete with other cats to survive the dogs. He upper do not overlap with the lower and there is no competition, so no conflict. But the lower middle class compete with the upper working class, and the upper middle class compete with the lower upper class. Hence the conflict.

When will this country's ridiculous obsession with class end?

It doesn't matter where you came from, all that matters is where you're going.

As my old prep school master said 'those with class, never mention class' which is a good maxim, which is why you'll never catch me banging on about class, especially my own.

Well there was an election last week, where people of a certain class, whose families never vote for a particular party, did so for the first time. And there are politicians from a rival party striving to appear to be seen as part of that class in order to be able to represent them, so I wondered why they are unconvincing.

I don't think referring to "working class" takes us forward in any meaningful way. Socio-economic class could help more and then we could try to define which strata we are talking about.

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

Hmmph.

(Do you really not know any working-class graduates? I will never get over the social mix of this site... )

Ok, answering your questions.
* Guilt? No. Pride? Yes. My parents were well aware of the burdens of being poor and that whole working-class-escaoe thing was a big thing when their contemporaries had way too much industrial injuries/deaths. We've forgotten how dangerous it is to be poor.
* Choosing to live far away? It's more a case of "you go where the jobs are". Your choices are only as good as your options.
* Little concept to live as the others still do? As I've mentioned before it's a big family (siblings, uncles, aunties, cousins, nieces, nephews,... well over thirty and rising) so they let you know about stuff, no probs, oh Gods do they let you know. Xmas is a scrum in my Dad's house, it's only small..
* Why do upper have more in common with the lower than the middle? That's easy: Darwinian competition. Dogs don't compete with cats, they compete with other dogs to prey upon the cats. Cats don't compete with dogs, they compete with other cats to survive the dogs. He upper do not overlap with the lower and there is no competition, so no conflict. But the lower middle class compete with the upper working class, and the upper middle class compete with the lower upper class. Hence the conflict.

When will this country's ridiculous obsession with class end?

It doesn't matter where you came from, all that matters is where you're going.

As my old prep school master said 'those with class, never mention class' which is a good maxim, which is why you'll never catch me banging on about class, especially my own.

Stay classy, TSE....

TheScreamingEagles said:

viewcode said:

Hmmph.

(Do you really not know any working-class graduates? I will never get over the social mix of this site... )

Ok, answering your questions.
* Guilt? No. Pride? Yes. My parents were well aware of the burdens of being poor and that whole working-class-escaoe thing was a big thing when their contemporaries had way too much industrial injuries/deaths. We've forgotten how dangerous it is to be poor.
* Choosing to live far away? It's more a case of "you go where the jobs are". Your choices are only as good as your options.
* Little concept to live as the others still do? As I've mentioned before it's a big family (siblings, uncles, aunties, cousins, nieces, nephews,... well over thirty and rising) so they let you know about stuff, no probs, oh Gods do they let you know. Xmas is a scrum in my Dad's house, it's only small..
* Why do upper have more in common with the lower than the middle? That's easy: Darwinian competition. Dogs don't compete with cats, they compete with other dogs to prey upon the cats. Cats don't compete with dogs, they compete with other cats to survive the dogs. He upper do not overlap with the lower and there is no competition, so no conflict. But the lower middle class compete with the upper working class, and the upper middle class compete with the lower upper class. Hence the conflict.

When will this country's ridiculous obsession with class end?

It doesn't matter where you came from, all that matters is where you're going.

As my old prep school master said 'those with class, never mention class' which is a good maxim, which is why you'll never catch me banging on about class, especially my own.

Well said. It is a totally outmoded concept. Utterly ridiculous and it continues to hold some people, and the country back. I don't care if your father was a duke or a milkman. The family you were born into is a lottery. I do care about how you conduct yourself and whether you are a decent individual with a strong moral compass. Additionally, the school or university that someone went to is of little or no consequence.