politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some fascinating analysis by YouGov

The age at which a person becomes more likely to vote Conservative than Labour is 39 – down from 47 at the last electionhttps://t.co/hC7KufOxBl pic.twitter.com/UFter2WicP
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https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/1206947052753735682
I’ve met her a few times - she’s very nice - and from what I know she’s a good MP. Husband worked with her on a save Millom’s swimming pool campaign.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1206644159504891907
Maybe I should start Morris Dancer News: Politics with Bells on.
Edited extra bit: it's worth reading the thread just for the number of clarifications.
ITV coverage was really good on GE night, except him. He was useless. No insight, wrong on talking about what the polling had said etc.
https://twitter.com/HuffPostPol/status/1206950443999518724
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1206645245590544386
https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1206704214828879872
'There was a beautiful young woman from Venus,
Who had a body shaped like a .....'
'There was a young woman from Ealing,
Who had a peculiar feeling,
So she laid on her back,
Opened her crack,
And pissed all over the ceiling'
I am the Christmas fairy
My tights all torn and tattered
I've been up all night with Action man
And I'm absolutely shattered
'Doc, my penis has turned orange'
The Doc has a look and says
'Blimey, you're right, do you handle dangerous chemicals in your job?'
The man replies
'Nope, I'm unemployed'
The Doc says
'So what do you do all day?'
The man replies
'I sit at home eating Wotsits and watching pornos'
Rashly swallowed a package of seeds
Great tufts of fine grass
Sprouted out of his ass*
And his balls were covered with weeds.
* or arse if you pronounce grass like a soft southerner.
Did you know there's a Scotch Wiki? I like this page..
https://sco.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unitit_Kinrick
The red link to "Acts o Union o Ingland an Scotland" says "page disna exeest"
If you get a chance to have another referendum in the future make sure you seize the power to "take back control" as the UK did in its referendum.
I appreciate that the age bands there were chosen to represent different life-stages e.g. 18-24 is "students and young people" though the reality is the majority of them are young workers and students the minority, 65+ is "retired" but in reality some of them will be working part-time and there will be plenty of retired people in the 50-64 class and so on.
Broad-brush they're still useful categories but the charts can be misleading as eg 18-24 is only a very small sliver of the voting population!
Taking them as proportions of all adults 18+ (I don't know if data is available on UK citizens / eligible voters only) we get
18-24 = 11%
25-49 = 42%
50-64 = 24%
65+ = 23%
I had to do some interpolation but these should be accurate to the nearest percent or so.
A really good rule of thumb is a "rectangular" age distribution that becomes "triangular" once you get past 60 - any 5-year age band of the UK 18+ population represents around 8% of the 18+ population until you start including people aged 60+, at which point you start knocking 1% off, and then you subtract a further 1% for each 5-year band you go up. So for example, by the 80-84 year old band you have subtracted 1% at ages 60, 65, 70, 75 and 80 so in total have knocked off 5% and the age-band contains only 8% - 5% = 3%.
For a bit more accuracy, to account for fluctuations in birth rates etc over time, you need to slightly ramp up any 5-year band aged between mid-40s and mid-50s ramp to 9%. And today's teenagers went through a temporary population dip so when that cohort gets into adulthood their 5-year age-bands will be 7% rather than 8%.
Data source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland
Incidentally, if YouGov was going to split all 18+ voters into four equally sized age categories, they should really be:
18-31
32-46
47-61
62+
This would make it much easier to see if a Lab lead in one age group was cancelled out by a Con lead in another!
If the age groups were collapsed to slightly tidier numbers, then
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Wouldn't be a bad shout - too many people in the lower age groups, too few in the higher age group, but once you weight these by the turnout in each group then I suspect (I should check the figures really) the number of actual votes would be rather closer to equal between groups.
I did like 'Unhygenix' the fishmonger being renamed as 'Minginhaddix', though.
Have you heard, William Shatner is getting married to Stevie Nicks?
Nah, really?! When did you hear this?
Just now. Stevie henceforth wishes to be known as Mrs Stevie Shatner-Nicks.
Who sought lizards and snakes for solace,
His children had scales,
and prehensile tails,
and voted for Governor Wallace.
There was a young man from Brighton,
Who thought he’d at last found a tight ‘un.
He said, “Oh my love,
It fits like a glove.”
Said she, “But you’re not in the right ‘un.”
Enough! Enough! We want no preachment!
It's time to vote on his impeachment!
Aside from that, "beseechment"?
Two others I know from schooldays
There was a young man from Devizes
who had balls of two different sizes
One was so small it was nothing at all
the other so big it won prizes
and
There was a young man from Madras
Whose balls were made of brass
In stormy weather , they clanged together
and sparks came out of his arse.
I can't work out who it is. Does Labour have any male poshos at the top?
It makes absolutely no fucking sense in that accent.
Share.
It seems like this is a theme across the West....
The lovers cried, and the poets dreamed.
USA Today/Suffolk
Biden 41, Trump 44
Trump +3
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders
USA Today/Suffolk
Sanders 39, Trump 44
Trump +5
General Election: Trump vs. Warren
USA Today/Suffolk
Warren 37, Trump 45
Trump +8
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg
USA Today/Suffolk
Buttigieg 33, Trump 43
Trump +10
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg
USA Today/Suffolk
Bloomberg 34, Trump 43
Trump +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden
IBD/TIPP
Biden 50, Trump 45
Biden +5
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders
IBD/TIPP
Sanders 47, Trump 48
Trump +1
General Election: Trump vs. Warren
IBD/TIPP
Warren 45, Trump 49
Trump +4
General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg
IBD/TIPP
Buttigieg 44, Trump 46
Trump +2
General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg
IBD/TIPP
Bloomberg 46, Trump 47
Trump +1
https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/13/uk-gay-parliament-world-2019-general-election-snp-conservatives-labour-lgbt/
Also the claims of underrepresentation for disabled ("1%") are likely t be about 98% baloney. Last time the list did not even include Theresa May - an openly disabled (whatever that means) Type 1 Diabetic.
Queen's speech Thursday
In all seriousness, the centre ground of politics has shifted leftwards. If that turns out to be Jezza's legacy, then he ain't done so badly after all.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1206971916445274112?s=20
There will be disagreements on priorities at this stage, and I'm not best placed to identify the highest priority, but I feel like even I have a better handle on what they need to look at than this chap and his ilk.
https://unherd.com/2019/12/why-corbynistas-can-never-admit-theyre-wrong/
Tool.
Popular with the electorate? Clearly that's a secondary consideration in contrast to ideological purity.
He should be on his arse due to the number of false predictions he's made. But a few days later, after he's been shown to be wrong about everything, he's just back out again churning out relentless garbage as if nothing has happened.
"Multiple failures have partly defined the Corbyn project. "
seems pretty spot on to me.