I think he made a typo in "Mandatory de-selection"
Tool.
5) Could win election in under 1,000 years
Until the election this lot were slightly sinister, simply because there was some outside chance they could form a government with cynical help from the centre left. Now everything they say is just hilariously funny; and they have no idea how funny it is.
He should be on his arse due to the number of false predictions he's made. But a few days later, after he's been shown to be wrong about everything, he's just back out again churning out relentless garbage as if nothing has happened.
Because for pundits, quantity and certainty of predictions is what counts, not accuracy, and certainly not sitting on the fence.
I've been playing with spreadsheets. The following will surprise no-one, but is mildly interesting nonetheless: Safest Lab seats all in Merseyside: Liverpool Walton, Knowsley, Bootle, Liverpool Riverside and Liverpool West Derby (the first four of which all have a majority > 70%) Safest Con seats all on the east coast: South Holland & the Deepings, Boston and Skegness, Castle Point, Maldon, Clacton - not quite as stonking majorities as Labour on Merseyside, but the first three are all in excess of 60%. In fact, all but one of the top 12 safest Con seats are either on the east coast or just inland from it, somewhere between the Thames and Humber.
Interesting watching MPs swearing in - the first to affirm was Corbyn....most Labour Front Benchers have been swearing
I'm not f***ing surprised after that debacle.
Javid was first to affirm
I'd affirm, it seems much ado about nothing. As an atheist swearing is hypocritical and I would never do it unless there was no alternative. There is nothing from with affirming instead.
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
Starmer would likely get the backing of enough MPs to get on the ballot but that's insufficient now they need the backing of unions etc too now. Will he get their backing to even get on the ballot in the first place?
Passive aggressives don't do grace. Never met a counter example. Probably because they can't express their anger so it bottles up. Also they are never wrong. And they hate answering questions unless they can choose the questions.
Interesting watching MPs swearing in - the first to affirm was Corbyn....most Labour Front Benchers have been swearing
I'm not f***ing surprised after that debacle.
Javid was first to affirm
I'd affirm, it seems much ado about nothing. As an atheist swearing is hypocritical and I would never do it unless there was no alternative. There is nothing from with affirming instead.
Undermines Javid's credentials as a 'Muslim' in my view. Could've been worth a bit of support and conciliatory Brownie points if only he'd held his nose and picked up a Koran for a few seconds.
Interesting watching MPs swearing in - the first to affirm was Corbyn....most Labour Front Benchers have been swearing
I'm not f***ing surprised after that debacle.
Javid was first to affirm
I'd affirm, it seems much ado about nothing. As an atheist swearing is hypocritical and I would never do it unless there was no alternative. There is nothing from with affirming instead.
Undermines Javid's credentials as a 'Muslim' in my view. Could've been worth a bit of support and conciliatory Brownie points if only he'd held his nose and picked up a Koran for a few seconds.
Not in my view. The affirmation is a religiously neutral thing to say its not an atheist thing to say.
Religion is like a penis. Its fine to have one, its fine to be proud of it. But please don't take it out in public and whip it around and please don't shove it down other people's throats.
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
Contra Peston, I can't see GMB backing RLB. They're the most Corbynsceptic of the three major unions (endorsing Owen Smith in the 2016 leadership election). Wouldn't be shocked if they backed Nandy, to be honest.
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
Starmer would likely get the backing of enough MPs to get on the ballot but that's insufficient now they need the backing of unions etc too now. Will he get their backing to even get on the ballot in the first place?
I could see UNISON and/or USDAW endorsing Starmer.
Interesting watching MPs swearing in - the first to affirm was Corbyn....most Labour Front Benchers have been swearing
I'm not f***ing surprised after that debacle.
Javid was first to affirm
I'd affirm, it seems much ado about nothing. As an atheist swearing is hypocritical and I would never do it unless there was no alternative. There is nothing from with affirming instead.
I never fathomed what sense it made for people to swear oaths on a book that forbids the swearing of oaths.
I've been playing with spreadsheets. The following will surprise no-one, but is mildly interesting nonetheless: Safest Lab seats all in Merseyside: Liverpool Walton, Knowsley, Bootle, Liverpool Riverside and Liverpool West Derby (the first four of which all have a majority > 70%) Safest Con seats all on the east coast: South Holland & the Deepings, Boston and Skegness, Castle Point, Maldon, Clacton - not quite as stonking majorities as Labour on Merseyside, but the first three are all in excess of 60%. In fact, all but one of the top 12 safest Con seats are either on the east coast or just inland from it, somewhere between the Thames and Humber.
Interesting,
P.S. has anybody created an Excel Spreadsheet of all the results, that can be shared by a link? I've just spent 20 minuets googling it but could not find one.
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
Starmer would likely get the backing of enough MPs to get on the ballot but that's insufficient now they need the backing of unions etc too now. Will he get their backing to even get on the ballot in the first place?
I could see UNISON and/or USDAW endorsing Starmer.
If not, he'd get the CLPs he needs. There are 70+ in and around London alone - and while he was not on the TV very much, he did a lot of travelling around the country to help out in various local campaigns.
I have a lot of time for Stephen Bush. I don’t always agree with him (he is much more to the left than me) but I always find his arguments or observations clear and well laid out. He does a very listenable podcast for The New Statesman which I would recommend to those who like intelligent political podcasts.
Yes, that makes sense. I'll be amazed if there isn't a massive spending bonanza - the temptation to grind Labour into the dust over public spending will be irresistible.
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
Starmer would likely get the backing of enough MPs to get on the ballot but that's insufficient now they need the backing of unions etc too now. Will he get their backing to even get on the ballot in the first place?
I could see UNISON and/or USDAW endorsing Starmer.
If not, he'd get the CLPs he needs. There are 70+ in and around London alone - and while he was not on the TV very much, he did a lot of travelling around the country to help out in various local campaigns.
He spent the entire campaign going right around the UK with the CLPs, instead of getting his face on Newsnight like Gardiner and Burgon. He was out campaigning with Owen Jones and Laura Parker from Momentum at one point...trying to build a big tent?
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
Starmer would likely get the backing of enough MPs to get on the ballot but that's insufficient now they need the backing of unions etc too now. Will he get their backing to even get on the ballot in the first place?
I could see UNISON and/or USDAW endorsing Starmer.
If not, he'd get the CLPs he needs. There are 70+ in and around London alone - and while he was not on the TV very much, he did a lot of travelling around the country to help out in various local campaigns.
If someone had the time, they could check back on past CLP nominations for the NEC. Those that nominated the Momentum slate (including an anti-semite) are likely to do what they are told again.
A nice graphic of CLPs ranked against percentage entryist loon membership would be instructive.
Interesting watching MPs swearing in - the first to affirm was Corbyn....most Labour Front Benchers have been swearing
I'm not f***ing surprised after that debacle.
Javid was first to affirm
I'd affirm, it seems much ado about nothing. As an atheist swearing is hypocritical and I would never do it unless there was no alternative. There is nothing from with affirming instead.
Undermines Javid's credentials as a 'Muslim' in my view. Could've been worth a bit of support and conciliatory Brownie points if only he'd held his nose and picked up a Koran for a few seconds.
Javid has said this:
" My own family's heritage is Muslim. Myself and my four brothers were brought up to believe in God, but I do not practise any religion. My wife is a practising Christian and the only religion practised in my house is Christianity."
The Tories now the party of over 39 skilled working class males predominantly, Labour the party of under 39 lower middle class or unskilled working class females and the LDs mainly the party of upper middle class 25 to 49 year old males (which now perfectly defines TSE)
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
Is Long Bailey IDS to Starmer's Portillo/Ken Clarke?
Like IDS Long Bailey is viewed less negatively than the previous leader while being ideologically close to them in a way that appeals to the party membership more than swing voters. Like IDS Long Bailey comes across as earnest and serious while lacking charisma or a strong personality or an Oxbridge degree.
The Tories now the party of over 39 skilled working class males predominantly, Labour the party of under 39 lower middle class or unskilled working class females and the LDs mainly the party of upper middle class 25 to 49 year old males (which now perfectly defines TSE)
Anyone seen the latest Trump General polling numbers ?!
No.
Share.
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 41, Trump 44 Trump +3 General Election: Trump vs. Sanders USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 39, Trump 44 Trump +5 General Election: Trump vs. Warren USA Today/Suffolk Warren 37, Trump 45 Trump +8 General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg USA Today/Suffolk Buttigieg 33, Trump 43 Trump +10 General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg USA Today/Suffolk Bloomberg 34, Trump 43 Trump +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 General Election: Trump vs. Sanders IBD/TIPP Sanders 47, Trump 48 Trump +1 General Election: Trump vs. Warren IBD/TIPP Warren 45, Trump 49 Trump +4 General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg IBD/TIPP Buttigieg 44, Trump 46 Trump +2 General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg IBD/TIPP Bloomberg 46, Trump 47 Trump +1
US voters giving a similar kicking to Democrats dicking about impeaching Trump as British voters just gave to MPs who dicked about trying to block Brexit.
"There's important stuff needs doing. Just focus on that....."
I've been playing with spreadsheets. The following will surprise no-one, but is mildly interesting nonetheless: Safest Lab seats all in Merseyside: Liverpool Walton, Knowsley, Bootle, Liverpool Riverside and Liverpool West Derby (the first four of which all have a majority > 70%) Safest Con seats all on the east coast: South Holland & the Deepings, Boston and Skegness, Castle Point, Maldon, Clacton - not quite as stonking majorities as Labour on Merseyside, but the first three are all in excess of 60%. In fact, all but one of the top 12 safest Con seats are either on the east coast or just inland from it, somewhere between the Thames and Humber.
Interesting,
P.S. has anybody created an Excel Spreadsheet of all the results, that can be shared by a link? I've just spent 20 minuets googling it but could not find one.
BritainElects has one, although the figures in Middlesbrough are not correct because the Brexit Party polled 2,168 votes not 216. This is a mistake most of the media is replicating.
Just walked back from the centre of St. Albans to my hotel, down one of my favourite streets in Britain. Amongst the Christmas trees and doors decked with wreaths, there are still many LibDem diamonds up. Pride and defiance being shown.
Anyone seen the latest Trump General polling numbers ?!
No.
Share.
General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 41, Trump 44 Trump +3 General Election: Trump vs. Sanders USA Today/Suffolk Sanders 39, Trump 44 Trump +5 General Election: Trump vs. Warren USA Today/Suffolk Warren 37, Trump 45 Trump +8 General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg USA Today/Suffolk Buttigieg 33, Trump 43 Trump +10 General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg USA Today/Suffolk Bloomberg 34, Trump 43 Trump +9
General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 General Election: Trump vs. Sanders IBD/TIPP Sanders 47, Trump 48 Trump +1 General Election: Trump vs. Warren IBD/TIPP Warren 45, Trump 49 Trump +4 General Election: Trump vs. Buttigieg IBD/TIPP Buttigieg 44, Trump 46 Trump +2 General Election: Trump vs. Bloomberg IBD/TIPP Bloomberg 46, Trump 47 Trump +1
US voters giving a similar kicking to Democrats dicking about impeaching Trump as British voters just gave to MPs who dicked about trying to block Brexit.
"There's important stuff needs doing. Just focus on that....."
Trump beats every Democrat with both pollsters then bar Biden who narrowly beats him with IBID/TIPP but not Suffolk
On the evidence I’ve seen Trump is clearly unfit for office and should be impeached.
On the other hand, he’s delivered (or at least tried his damnest to deliver) on what he said he’d do in 2016, the US economy is doing well, and the Democrats are all over the shop, so he’ll probably be re-elected.
They've really got a weird obsession with Jess. A woman who speaks her own mind. Hmm.
Worth clicking on the tweet to see the tissue-thin 'allegations' in full. For example, Jess telling Diane Abbott to 'fuck off' is evidence of racism, as opposed to a civic duty.
On the evidence I’ve seen Trump is clearly unfit for office and should be impeached.
On the other hand, he’s delivered (or at least tried his damnest to deliver) on what he said he’d do in 2016, the US economy is doing well, and the Democrats are all over the shop, so he’ll probably be re-elected.
I've been playing with spreadsheets. The following will surprise no-one, but is mildly interesting nonetheless: Safest Lab seats all in Merseyside: Liverpool Walton, Knowsley, Bootle, Liverpool Riverside and Liverpool West Derby (the first four of which all have a majority > 70%) Safest Con seats all on the east coast: South Holland & the Deepings, Boston and Skegness, Castle Point, Maldon, Clacton - not quite as stonking majorities as Labour on Merseyside, but the first three are all in excess of 60%. In fact, all but one of the top 12 safest Con seats are either on the east coast or just inland from it, somewhere between the Thames and Humber.
Interesting,
P.S. has anybody created an Excel Spreadsheet of all the results, that can be shared by a link? I've just spent 20 minuets googling it but could not find one.
BritainElects has one, although the figures in Middlesbrough are not correct because the Brexit Party polled 2,168 votes not 216. This is a mistake most of the media is replicating.
Some years ago now, I got quite a collection of 2010 results spreadsheets together from various sources (I wrote Python scripts to scrape the BBC and several other news sources, plus House of Commons library and some academics' spreadsheets they use for polsci research) and even among these apparently reliable sources there were quite a few discrepancies of the kind you mention that I could never resolve! That's what comes of not having a central electoral body to verify the final counts I guess.
(Though I think in the end all the "bigger" ones, 1000+ votes, I was largely able to identify who had made the typo, it's interesting that the errors were still in print a couple of years later. On election night 2019 there were some wildly incorrect figures for Bradford Central doing the rounds online.)
One big problem Kier Starmer has is that he’s got a face that looks like a cross between a slapped arse and a rabbit caught in the headlights.
I know commenting on appearances is wrong but to me he looks like the manager of a dodgy night club with an over fondness for hair gel.
Appearances matter. It might be harsh, but they do.
After all, one esteemed pb.com regular thread writer once wrote a header critiquing Osborne’s chances as PM after Cameron partly on the basis he had a ‘punchable face’.
I've been playing with spreadsheets. The following will surprise no-one, but is mildly interesting nonetheless: Safest Lab seats all in Merseyside: Liverpool Walton, Knowsley, Bootle, Liverpool Riverside and Liverpool West Derby (the first four of which all have a majority > 70%) Safest Con seats all on the east coast: South Holland & the Deepings, Boston and Skegness, Castle Point, Maldon, Clacton - not quite as stonking majorities as Labour on Merseyside, but the first three are all in excess of 60%. In fact, all but one of the top 12 safest Con seats are either on the east coast or just inland from it, somewhere between the Thames and Humber.
Interesting,
P.S. has anybody created an Excel Spreadsheet of all the results, that can be shared by a link? I've just spent 20 minuets googling it but could not find one.
BritainElects has one, although the figures in Middlesbrough are not correct because the Brexit Party polled 2,168 votes not 216. This is a mistake most of the media is replicating.
Interesting watching MPs swearing in - the first to affirm was Corbyn....most Labour Front Benchers have been swearing
I'm not f***ing surprised after that debacle.
Javid was first to affirm
I'd affirm, it seems much ado about nothing. As an atheist swearing is hypocritical and I would never do it unless there was no alternative. There is nothing from with affirming instead.
Undermines Javid's credentials as a 'Muslim' in my view. Could've been worth a bit of support and conciliatory Brownie points if only he'd held his nose and picked up a Koran for a few seconds.
Not in my view. The affirmation is a religiously neutral thing to say its not an atheist thing to say.
Religion is like a penis. Its fine to have one, its fine to be proud of it. But please don't take it out in public and whip it around and please don't shove it down other people's throats.
Indeed it's not just non-religious people who'll affirm, religious Quakers (and iirc some other non-conformist Protestants) will affirm on the basis of "no swearing oaths".
Apparently all the Kinnocks have turned up to the PLP meeting, including Glenys.
Joking aside, I think Stephen would probably be a very credible leader at this point.
Not on the mad left; respects the referendum; represents the sort of seat that Labour need to move forward in; more concerned with jobs compared to transgender intersectionality or w/e
He wouldn't win but I think he would allow a decent recovery like his father managed.
Apparently all the Kinnocks have turned up to the PLP meeting, including Glenys.
Joking aside, I think Stephen would probably be a very credible leader at this point.
Not on the mad left; respects the referendum; represents the sort of seat that Labour need to move forward in; more concerned with jobs compared to transgender intersectionality or w/e
He wouldn't win but I think he would allow a decent recovery like his father managed.
Someone on #BBCQT on Friday made the same observation.
If Jess Phillips is being treated as the main figure of hate for the crazed far left, that is probably good. It at least means they are focusing their attention away from another candidate who may have a better chance of beating the annointed one. To keep them distracted, it matters that Phillips gets onto the ballot paper.
One big problem Kier Starmer has is that he’s got a face that looks like a cross between a slapped arse and a rabbit caught in the headlights.
Steady! We were told off earlier for commenting on RLB's appearance, and nobody would ever do that to a man.
I am given to understand that any abuse of a member of a privileged group, no matter how gross, is allowed because it is punching up. Similarly no abuse of an unprivileged group, no matter how mild, is allowed because it is punching down.
I know this because many people in the Guardian and many arts reviews insist on this point and take care to ruin the lives of those obviously evil people who may disagree. And who am I to gainsay such paragons of morality....
I get that Labour will not think everything they proposed or even everything about Corbyn is wrong and should be rejected, and that's reasonable and true, they had good ideas and even Corbyn has good points. But this phony 'must look at our mistakes, but also conclude everything we proposed was great, and it was the eeevil media's fault' shit is boneheaded and pathetic.
The country needing a good opposition deserves better than a leadership so personally arrogant that, even as they show faux humility, they as good as say they won when they lost. It's like if Boris says something reasonable then does something terrible, that would not make him reasonable, and Labour pretending they want to reflect on things when the leadership has already decided they won the arguments makes any preceding statements about reflection lies.
One big problem Kier Starmer has is that he’s got a face that looks like a cross between a slapped arse and a rabbit caught in the headlights.
I know commenting on appearances is wrong but to me he looks like the manager of a dodgy night club with an over fondness for hair gel.
Appearances matter. It might be harsh, but they do.
After all, one esteemed pb.com regular thread writer once wrote a header critiquing Osborne’s chances as PM after Cameron partly on the basis he had a ‘punchable face’.
No surprise at all that the age crossover point has moved downwards. This is what one would expect in case of a sizeable Conservative victory - and, as long as they can keep it around 40, they'll keep winning and winning.
The median age of the population is now just over 40, and should continue to creep up gradually for many years to come - which, given that children don't have the vote, evidently leaves the party that is most popular amongst everyone aged around 40 and over at a great advantage. If the Tories can fix housing, and thus prevent the numbers of frustrated, trapped middle-aged renters from ballooning, then they may be able to keep going for a long time.
Labour, on the other hand, might have to wait for the proportion of BAME voters in the upper age groups to start to rise substantially before it can get back into the game - and pray that the Tories don't work out how to connect with Black and Muslim voters in the meantime...
If it ends up as Starmer v Long-Bailey I would have thought there's a good chance that Starmer will massively outperform RLB in TV debates etc.
Even if membership is closer to RLB on policy, I think Starmer could still easily win if he is seen as a much more credible PM - which I think he will be.
RLB doesn't have Corbyn's personality. Sure, she doesn't have his baggage either but Corbyn's personality was very important in giving him the lift-off needed to win.
In contrast RLB comes across as very robotic. I think Rayner would score much higher on personality than RLB.
No surprise at all that the age crossover point has moved downwards. This is what one would expect in case of a sizeable Conservative victory - and, as long as they can keep it around 40, they'll keep winning and winning.
The median age of the population is now just over 40, and should continue to creep up gradually for many years to come - which, given that children don't have the vote, evidently leaves the party that is most popular amongst everyone aged around 40 and over at a great advantage. If the Tories can fix housing, and thus prevent the numbers of frustrated, trapped middle-aged renters from ballooning, then they may be able to keep going for a long time.
Labour, on the other hand, might have to wait for the proportion of BAME voters in the upper age groups to start to rise substantially before it can get back into the game - and pray that the Tories don't work out how to connect with Black and Muslim voters in the meantime...
One of the graphs that isn't shown above is the education one. Labour still well ahead among those with degrees.
The number with degrees jumped in the 90s, making those under 45 much more likely to have a degree. Now it may be that the link between degrees and voting Labour is a true one, or it's actually a consequence of the link between age and voting Labour, but if it's the former, then the Tories would be in trouble.
They might want to concentrate on life expectancy as a target as well as housing
What hope for labour until they eradicate momentum
Time is coming to split
No point splitting unless one wants decades of good or bad Boris governments. Simon Jenkins wrote an interesting piece today about the LDs being a drag on Labour. I was surprised as I thought of him as a Thatcherite. His point is valid, and may even assist in sidelining the momentum morons. Conversely it might not.
Labour has always had a mad fringe element, unfortunately it is that group of individuals who are asleep at the wheel at present. Rebecca Long Bailey has already achieved satanic status on PB and she will in the red top press, but should any of the current runners and riders start to do ok against Boris, they too will be seen as Stalin's love-children. I suspect like Kinnock before her RLB will jettison the extreme lefty nonsense if she feels it will prevent her becoming PM. She is a Manchester Solicitor, so presumably not dumb like Corbyn.
Don't for one moment think the Conservative Party has never been and isn't currently infiltrated by the clinically unpleasant either. Rather than libel the current guilty parties, I suggest Enoch and his chum Peter Griffiths fit that frame quite nicely for starters.
For all his blonde, cuddly, loveliness, Johnson has form for being both inept (MrsRatcliffe) and conniving (Cameron and May). History may be kind to Johnson, and future generations may look on his tenure as the golden age of British Conservative politics. The opposite might also be true, and under those circumstances BigG, even you don't want a split and ineffectual opposition.
If it ends up as Starmer v Long-Bailey I would have thought there's a good chance that Starmer will massively outperform RLB in TV debates etc.
Even if membership is closer to RLB on policy, I think Starmer could still easily win if he is seen as a much more credible PM - which I think he will be.
RLB doesn't have Corbyn's personality. Sure, she doesn't have his baggage either but Corbyn's personality was very important in giving him the lift-off needed to win.
In contrast RLB comes across as very robotic. I think Rayner would score much higher on personality than RLB.
I’m afraid the faithful have already made up their minds even before they know who is standing it’s already ‘RBL IS THE ONE’ get behind her
Is there not a middle ground for some Labour MPs who don't feel Corbyn was terrible in all ways, but still don't think it is helpful to bang on about how great he is and that really the result has much to celebrate about it?
Comments
Who do you think he thinks "the forces behind them" might be?
5) Could win election in under 1,000 years
Until the election this lot were slightly sinister, simply because there was some outside chance they could form a government with cynical help from the centre left. Now everything they say is just hilariously funny; and they have no idea how funny it is.
But more importantly, why the 2017 manifesto?
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/991642672992530432
Safest Lab seats all in Merseyside: Liverpool Walton, Knowsley, Bootle, Liverpool Riverside and Liverpool West Derby (the first four of which all have a majority > 70%)
Safest Con seats all on the east coast: South Holland & the Deepings, Boston and Skegness, Castle Point, Maldon, Clacton - not quite as stonking majorities as Labour on Merseyside, but the first three are all in excess of 60%. In fact, all but one of the top 12 safest Con seats are either on the east coast or just inland from it, somewhere between the Thames and Humber.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-12-17/why-keir-starmer-is-the-labour-leadership-candidate-to-beat-writes-robert-peston/
The Labour membership skews to London, the south and the university towns, and is fiercely anti-Brexit. Starmer has a lot of admirers from across the party beyond the rabid far-left. As I have said before on here, a lot of Corbyn's support was personal, not political. Many Labour members saw him as a polite, tireless, fighter for social justice - and they liked that, because they saw themselves in him. I am not sure that means they will all transfer to the candidate he and McDonnell back.
With the support of Unite and Momentum, Long Bailey is rightly the favourite, but I do not think she should be seen as a shoe-in. Especially if Starmer gets the backing of UNISON or on eof th eother non-Unite big unions.
Residents bid to rename Corbyn Road to stop house prices falling
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/residents-bid-rename-corbyn-road-17420058
Religion is like a penis. Its fine to have one, its fine to be proud of it. But please don't take it out in public and whip it around and please don't shove it down other people's throats.
P.S. has anybody created an Excel Spreadsheet of all the results, that can be shared by a link? I've just spent 20 minuets googling it but could not find one.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/12/most-important-question-about-new-conservative-mps-how-much-do-they-care
A nice graphic of CLPs ranked against percentage entryist loon membership would be instructive.
" My own family's heritage is Muslim. Myself and my four brothers were brought up to believe in God, but I do not practise any religion. My wife is a practising Christian and the only religion practised in my house is Christianity."
Like IDS Long Bailey is viewed less negatively than the previous leader while being ideologically close to them in a way that appeals to the party membership more than swing voters. Like IDS Long Bailey comes across as earnest and serious while lacking charisma or a strong personality or an Oxbridge degree.
http://www.class25.info/
Known as "Rats" to their friends.
Laters...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/pope-francis-sex-abuse-church-testimony-secret-child-pornography-a9250061.html
MENE MENE TICKLER PARSON.
"There's important stuff needs doing. Just focus on that....."
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wqTEbhyQhNOHw4xg4rjpD7tyMB9J5kzWzAn5AZquP48/edit#gid=0
Your MP is one to watch, I would suggest.
On the other hand, he’s delivered (or at least tried his damnest to deliver) on what he said he’d do in 2016, the US economy is doing well, and the Democrats are all over the shop, so he’ll probably be re-elected.
Funny times we live in.
Worth clicking on the tweet to see the tissue-thin 'allegations' in full. For example, Jess telling Diane Abbott to 'fuck off' is evidence of racism, as opposed to a civic duty.
Time is coming to split
In fairness to Abbot she had a much better campaign than 2017, unlike Jeremy!
With the moles.
(Though I think in the end all the "bigger" ones, 1000+ votes, I was largely able to identify who had made the typo, it's interesting that the errors were still in print a couple of years later. On election night 2019 there were some wildly incorrect figures for Bradford Central doing the rounds online.)
After all, one esteemed pb.com regular thread writer once wrote a header critiquing Osborne’s chances as PM after Cameron partly on the basis he had a ‘punchable face’.
Ah, my coat.
Not on the mad left; respects the referendum; represents the sort of seat that Labour need to move forward in; more concerned with jobs compared to transgender intersectionality or w/e
He wouldn't win but I think he would allow a decent recovery like his father managed.
https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1206851970251862016
A new post-election Corbyn Downfall parody has landed, and oh my God it's devastating:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9IOSj3Wivw
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1207006972538740739
I know this because many people in the Guardian and many arts reviews insist on this point and take care to ruin the lives of those obviously evil people who may disagree. And who am I to gainsay such paragons of morality....
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1207007855087378435
It already has a mass membership, what is he even talking about?
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1207008139536678912
The country needing a good opposition deserves better than a leadership so personally arrogant that, even as they show faux humility, they as good as say they won when they lost. It's like if Boris says something reasonable then does something terrible, that would not make him reasonable, and Labour pretending they want to reflect on things when the leadership has already decided they won the arguments makes any preceding statements about reflection lies.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1207005634887061505
Read alongside Formby's comment about vetting, it's *yet another* hard left ploy to remain in control, and in power of the party.
Being in control of the country comes a weak second in their priorities.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1207011601137700866
The median age of the population is now just over 40, and should continue to creep up gradually for many years to come - which, given that children don't have the vote, evidently leaves the party that is most popular amongst everyone aged around 40 and over at a great advantage. If the Tories can fix housing, and thus prevent the numbers of frustrated, trapped middle-aged renters from ballooning, then they may be able to keep going for a long time.
Labour, on the other hand, might have to wait for the proportion of BAME voters in the upper age groups to start to rise substantially before it can get back into the game - and pray that the Tories don't work out how to connect with Black and Muslim voters in the meantime...
Even if membership is closer to RLB on policy, I think Starmer could still easily win if he is seen as a much more credible PM - which I think he will be.
RLB doesn't have Corbyn's personality. Sure, she doesn't have his baggage either but Corbyn's personality was very important in giving him the lift-off needed to win.
In contrast RLB comes across as very robotic. I think Rayner would score much higher on personality than RLB.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1207015021932417027
The number with degrees jumped in the 90s, making those under 45 much more likely to have a degree. Now it may be that the link between degrees and voting Labour is a true one, or it's actually a consequence of the link between age and voting Labour, but if it's the former, then the Tories would be in trouble.
They might want to concentrate on life expectancy as a target as well as housing
Labour has always had a mad fringe element, unfortunately it is that group of individuals who are asleep at the wheel at present. Rebecca Long Bailey has already achieved satanic status on PB and she will in the red top press, but should any of the current runners and riders start to do ok against Boris, they too will be seen as Stalin's love-children. I suspect like Kinnock before her RLB will jettison the extreme lefty nonsense if she feels it will prevent her becoming PM. She is a Manchester Solicitor, so presumably not dumb like Corbyn.
Don't for one moment think the Conservative Party has never been and isn't currently infiltrated by the clinically unpleasant either. Rather than libel the current guilty parties, I suggest Enoch and his chum Peter Griffiths fit that frame quite nicely for starters.
For all his blonde, cuddly, loveliness, Johnson has form for being both inept (MrsRatcliffe) and conniving (Cameron and May). History may be kind to Johnson, and future generations may look on his tenure as the golden age of British Conservative politics. The opposite might also be true, and under those circumstances BigG, even you don't want a split and ineffectual opposition.
https://twitter.com/make_trouble/status/1206989662088310784