No surprise at all that the age crossover point has moved downwards. This is what one would expect in case of a sizeable Conservative victory - and, as long as they can keep it around 40, they'll keep winning and winning.
The median age of the population is now just over 40, and should continue to creep up gradually for many years to come - which, given that children don't have the vote, evidently leaves the party that is most popular amongst everyone aged around 40 and over at a great advantage. If the Tories can fix housing, and thus prevent the numbers of frustrated, trapped middle-aged renters from ballooning, then they may be able to keep going for a long time.
Labour, on the other hand, might have to wait for the proportion of BAME voters in the upper age groups to start to rise substantially before it can get back into the game - and pray that the Tories don't work out how to connect with Black and Muslim voters in the meantime...
One of the graphs that isn't shown above is the education one. Labour still well ahead among those with degrees.
The number with degrees jumped in the 90s, making those under 45 much more likely to have a degree. Now it may be that the link between degrees and voting Labour is a true one, or it's actually a consequence of the link between age and voting Labour, but if it's the former, then the Tories would be in trouble.
They might want to concentrate on life expectancy as a target as well as housing
I understood, but I'd have to see the research, that once you controlled for age, the correlation between Lab vote and degrees reduced to practically zero.
No surprise at all that the age crossover point has moved downwards. This is what one would expect in case of a sizeable Conservative victory - and, as long as they can keep it around 40, they'll keep winning and winning.
The median age of the population is now just over 40, and should continue to creep up gradually for many years to come - which, given that children don't have the vote, evidently leaves the party that is most popular amongst everyone aged around 40 and over at a great advantage. If the Tories can fix housing, and thus prevent the numbers of frustrated, trapped middle-aged renters from ballooning, then they may be able to keep going for a long time.
Labour, on the other hand, might have to wait for the proportion of BAME voters in the upper age groups to start to rise substantially before it can get back into the game - and pray that the Tories don't work out how to connect with Black and Muslim voters in the meantime...
One of the graphs that isn't shown above is the education one. Labour still well ahead among those with degrees.
The number with degrees jumped in the 90s, making those under 45 much more likely to have a degree. Now it may be that the link between degrees and voting Labour is a true one, or it's actually a consequence of the link between age and voting Labour, but if it's the former, then the Tories would be in trouble.
They might want to concentrate on life expectancy as a target as well as housing
I understood, but I'd have to see the research, that once you controlled for age, the correlation between Lab vote and degrees reduced to practically zero.
Even if that correlation remained, the relationship would not be with brainpower but with how recently you'd spent a lot of time in a tremendously lefty institution
Jeremy thinks far too much of himself to believe that he has betrayed young peoples' future. Especially when the young people themselves will likely still tell him he is the best.
What hope for labour until they eradicate momentum
Time is coming to split
No point splitting unless one wants decades of good or bad Boris governments. Simon Jenkins wrote an interesting piece today about the LDs being a drag on Labour. I was surprised as I thought of him as a Thatcherite. His point is valid, and may even assist in sidelining the momentum morons. Conversely it might not.
Labour has always had a mad fringe element, unfortunately it is that group of individuals who are asleep at the wheel at present. Rebecca Long Bailey has already achieved satanic status on PB and she will in the red top press, but should any of the current runners and riders start to do ok against Boris, they too will be seen as Stalin's love-children. I suspect like Kinnock before her RLB will jettison the extreme lefty nonsense if she feels it will prevent her becoming PM. She is a Manchester Solicitor, so presumably not dumb like Corbyn.
Don't for one moment think the Conservative Party has never been and isn't currently infiltrated by the clinically unpleasant either. Rather than libel the current guilty parties, I suggest Enoch and his chum Peter Griffiths fit that frame quite nicely for starters.
For all his blonde, cuddly, loveliness, Johnson has form for being both inept (MrsRatcliffe) and conniving (Cameron and May). History may be kind to Johnson, and future generations may look on his tenure as the golden age of British Conservative politics. The opposite might also be true, and under those circumstances BigG, even you don't want a split and ineffectual opposition.
But the Conservative Party didn't elect Enoch as the party leader, now did it? In fact it threw him out of the Cabinet and blocked his career so much he had to go sit in Northern Ireland. It didn't stand outside Party HQ and shout "WE HAVE A VACANCY FOR THE STUPIDEST LEFT-WING F**K IMAGINABLE! PLEASE FORM AN ORDERLY QUEUE"
And as for Simon Jenkins, why why must I be afflicted with the witterings of another paradigmatic metropolitan aristo? He's up there with Rod Liddle and [long sweary list redacted] who, when I am elected Supreme Commander, I will cheerfully throw into a pit of scorpions.
No surprise at all that the age crossover point has moved downwards. This is what one would expect in case of a sizeable Conservative victory - and, as long as they can keep it around 40, they'll keep winning and winning.
The median age of the population is now just over 40, and should continue to creep up gradually for many years to come - which, given that children don't have the vote, evidently leaves the party that is most popular amongst everyone aged around 40 and over at a great advantage. If the Tories can fix housing, and thus prevent the numbers of frustrated, trapped middle-aged renters from ballooning, then they may be able to keep going for a long time.
Labour, on the other hand, might have to wait for the proportion of BAME voters in the upper age groups to start to rise substantially before it can get back into the game - and pray that the Tories don't work out how to connect with Black and Muslim voters in the meantime...
One of the graphs that isn't shown above is the education one. Labour still well ahead among those with degrees.
The number with degrees jumped in the 90s, making those under 45 much more likely to have a degree. Now it may be that the link between degrees and voting Labour is a true one, or it's actually a consequence of the link between age and voting Labour, but if it's the former, then the Tories would be in trouble.
They might want to concentrate on life expectancy as a target as well as housing
I understood, but I'd have to see the research, that once you controlled for age, the correlation between Lab vote and degrees reduced to practically zero.
YouGov said after the last election: "Part of this relationship is down to age – the expansion of education means that, on average, the young have more qualifications than the old, although the Conservatives still have a “graduate problem” even after accounting for this."
What hope for labour until they eradicate momentum
Time is coming to split
No point splitting unless one wants decades of good or bad Boris governments. Simon Jenkins wrote an interesting piece today about the LDs being a drag on Labour. I was surprised as I thought of him as a Thatcherite. His point is valid, and may even assist in sidelining the momentum morons. Conversely it might not.
Labour has always had a mad fringe element, unfortunately it is that group of individuals who are asleep at the wheel at present. Rebecca Long Bailey has already achieved satanic status on PB and she will in the red top press, but should any of the current runners and riders start to do ok against Boris, they too will be seen as Stalin's love-children. I suspect like Kinnock before her RLB will jettison the extreme lefty nonsense if she feels it will prevent her becoming PM. She is a Manchester Solicitor, so presumably not dumb like Corbyn.
Don't for one moment think the Conservative Party has never been and isn't currently infiltrated by the clinically unpleasant either. Rather than libel the current guilty parties, I suggest Enoch and his chum Peter Griffiths fit that frame quite nicely for starters.
For all his blonde, cuddly, loveliness, Johnson has form for being both inept (MrsRatcliffe) and conniving (Cameron and May). History may be kind to Johnson, and future generations may look on his tenure as the golden age of British Conservative politics. The opposite might also be true, and under those circumstances BigG, even you don't want a split and ineffectual opposition.
No - I really do not want a split opposition but equally momentum need to be sidelined
Apparently all the Kinnocks have turned up to the PLP meeting, including Glenys.
Joking aside, I think Stephen would probably be a very credible leader at this point.
Not on the mad left; respects the referendum; represents the sort of seat that Labour need to move forward in; more concerned with jobs compared to transgender intersectionality or w/e
He wouldn't win but I think he would allow a decent recovery like his father managed.
He sounds very sensible and intelligent, I was thinking the same.
What hope for labour until they eradicate momentum
Time is coming to split
No point splitting unless one wants decades of good or bad Boris governments. Simon Jenkins wrote an interesting piece today about the LDs being a drag on Labour. I was surprised as I thought of him as a Thatcherite. His point is valid, and may even assist in sidelining the momentum morons. Conversely it might not.
Labour has always had a mad fringe element, unfortunately it is that group of individuals who are asleep at the wheel at present. Rebecca Long Bailey has already achieved satanic status on PB and she will in the red top press, but should any of the current runners and riders start to do ok against Boris, they too will be seen as Stalin's love-children. I suspect like Kinnock before her RLB will jettison the extreme lefty nonsense if she feels it will prevent her becoming PM. She is a Manchester Solicitor, so presumably not dumb like Corbyn.
Don't for one moment think the Conservative Party has never been and isn't currently infiltrated by the clinically unpleasant either. Rather than libel the current guilty parties, I suggest Enoch and his chum Peter Griffiths fit that frame quite nicely for starters.
For all his blonde, cuddly, loveliness, Johnson has form for being both inept (MrsRatcliffe) and conniving (Cameron and May). History may be kind to Johnson, and future generations may look on his tenure as the golden age of British Conservative politics. The opposite might also be true, and under those circumstances BigG, even you don't want a split and ineffectual opposition.
But the Conservative Party didn't elect Enoch as the party leader, now did it? In fact it threw him out of the Cabinet and blocked his career so much he had to go sit in Northern Ireland. It didn't stand outside Party HQ and shout "WE HAVE A VACANCY FOR THE STUPIDEST LEFT-WING F**K IMAGINABLE! PLEASE FORM AN ORDERLY QUEUE"
And as for Simon Jenkins, why why must I be afflicted with the witterings of another paradigmatic metropolitan aristo? He's up there with Rod Liddle and [long sweary list redacted] who, when I am elected Supreme Commander, I will cheerfully throw into a pit of scorpions.
If Ted Heath had set up a £3 (or 3/-) associate membership scheme, you can bet your boots Enoch would have had a shot at becoming Tory leader. IIRC Enoch left because of Heath's pro-European journey. Enoch and Peter Griffiths would have fitted quite well into today's Conservative Party on the Europe point alone.
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
There's already protesting on the English streets..
Until they next win an election, when it will mysteriously evaporate.
Well IIRC I don't remember it in their manifesto, which had votes at 16 and so on, so if they do go for it it definitely is result dependent rather than principle.
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
The sound of celebratory gunfire on here was deafening for days. It was reminiscent of the Ayatollah Khomeini's homecoming to Tehran.
What hope for labour until they eradicate momentum
Time is coming to split
No point splitting unless one wants decades of good or bad Boris governments. Simon Jenkins wrote an interesting piece today about the LDs being a drag on Labour. I was surprised as I thought of him as a Thatcherite. His point is valid, and may even assist in sidelining the momentum morons. Conversely it might not.
Labour has always had a mad fringe element, unfortunately it is that group of individuals who are asleep at the wheel at present. Rebecca Long Bailey has already achieved satanic status on PB and she will in the red top press, but should any of the current runners and riders start to do ok against Boris, they too will be seen as Stalin's love-children. I suspect like Kinnock before her RLB will jettison the extreme lefty nonsense if she feels it will prevent her becoming PM. She is a Manchester Solicitor, so presumably not dumb like Corbyn.
Don't for one moment think the Conservative Party has never been and isn't currently infiltrated by the clinically unpleasant either. Rather than libel the current guilty parties, I suggest Enoch and his chum Peter Griffiths fit that frame quite nicely for starters.
For all his blonde, cuddly, loveliness, Johnson has form for being both inept (MrsRatcliffe) and conniving (Cameron and May). History may be kind to Johnson, and future generations may look on his tenure as the golden age of British Conservative politics. The opposite might also be true, and under those circumstances BigG, even you don't want a split and ineffectual opposition.
No - I really do not want a split opposition but equally momentum need to be sidelined
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
The sound of celebratory gunfire on here was deafening for days. It was reminiscent of the Ayatollah Khomeini's homecoming to Tehran.
What better way to celebrate the ninth year of the thousand year PB Tory reich?
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
Celebrating a victory, a big one, would not be hubris. Hubris is those thinking 2029 is already in the bag!
What hope for labour until they eradicate momentum
Time is coming to split
No point splitting unless one wants decades of good or bad Boris governments. Simon Jenkins wrote an interesting piece today about the LDs being a drag on Labour. I was surprised as I thought of him as a Thatcherite. His point is valid, and may even assist in sidelining the momentum morons. Conversely it might not.
Labour has always had a mad fringe element, unfortunately it is that group of individuals who are asleep at the wheel at present. Rebecca Long Bailey has already achieved satanic status on PB and she will in the red top press, but should any of the current runners and riders start to do ok against Boris, they too will be seen as Stalin's love-children. I suspect like Kinnock before her RLB will jettison the extreme lefty nonsense if she feels it will prevent her becoming PM. She is a Manchester Solicitor, so presumably not dumb like Corbyn.
Don't for one moment think the Conservative Party has never been and isn't currently infiltrated by the clinically unpleasant either. Rather than libel the current guilty parties, I suggest Enoch and his chum Peter Griffiths fit that frame quite nicely for starters.
For all his blonde, cuddly, loveliness, Johnson has form for being both inept (MrsRatcliffe) and conniving (Cameron and May). History may be kind to Johnson, and future generations may look on his tenure as the golden age of British Conservative politics. The opposite might also be true, and under those circumstances BigG, even you don't want a split and ineffectual opposition.
No - I really do not want a split opposition but equally momentum need to be sidelined
Sidelined off a cliff hopefully.
Momentum have something to offer. Hopefully this time it will be for the Labour Party, not the Tories.
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
Labour did pretty well in South Wales (better than I was expecting).
So you can be pretty pleased that your region held up well.
Until they next win an election, when it will mysteriously evaporate.
Well IIRC I don't remember it in their manifesto, which had votes at 16 and so on, so if they do go for it it definitely is result dependent rather than principle.
Is there any evidence what older voters think about votes at 16? I wonder if they are a bit hostile, and being older and more conservative leaning it is not going to help the Labour cause. Personally while there is clearly a case for it, there is a good case against as well. Older voters may think 16 year olds are a bit lacking in mature independent judgement.
Until they next win an election, when it will mysteriously evaporate.
Well IIRC I don't remember it in their manifesto, which had votes at 16 and so on, so if they do go for it it definitely is result dependent rather than principle.
Is there any evidence what older voters think about votes at 16? I wonder if they are a bit hostile, and being older and more conservative leaning it is not going to help the Labour cause. Personally while there is clearly a case for it, there is a good case against as well. Older voters may think 16 year olds are a bit lacking in mature independent judgement.
Most 70+ voters would raise the voting age to whatever ensured a Tory victory
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
What hope for labour until they eradicate momentum
Time is coming to split
No point splitting unless one wants decades of good or bad Boris governments. Simon Jenkins wrote an interesting piece today about the LDs being a drag on Labour. I was surprised as I thought of him as a Thatcherite. His point is valid, and may even assist in sidelining the momentum morons. Conversely it might not.
Labour has always had a mad fringe element, unfortunately it is that group of individuals who are asleep at the wheel at present. Rebecca Long Bailey has already achieved satanic status on PB and she will in the red top press, but should any of the current runners and riders start to do ok against Boris, they too will be seen as Stalin's love-children. I suspect like Kinnock before her RLB will jettison the extreme lefty nonsense if she feels it will prevent her becoming PM. She is a Manchester Solicitor, so presumably not dumb like Corbyn.
Don't for one moment think the Conservative Party has never been and isn't currently infiltrated by the clinically unpleasant either. Rather than libel the current guilty parties, I suggest Enoch and his chum Peter Griffiths fit that frame quite nicely for starters.
For all his blonde, cuddly, loveliness, Johnson has form for being both inept (MrsRatcliffe) and conniving (Cameron and May). History may be kind to Johnson, and future generations may look on his tenure as the golden age of British Conservative politics. The opposite might also be true, and under those circumstances BigG, even you don't want a split and ineffectual opposition.
No - I really do not want a split opposition but equally momentum need to be sidelined
Sidelined off a cliff hopefully.
Momentum have something to offer. Hopefully this time it will be for the Labour Party, not the Tories.
Momentum's sole offering is called 'Socialist Worker', it is a nonsensical comic and they sell it on street corners.
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Theresa May, in 2017, apparently phoned all of the MPs who lost their seats in 2017 personally within the first 24 hours after the election.
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Theresa May, in 2017, apparently phoned all of the MPs who lost their seats in 2017 personally within the first 24 hours after the election.
Fake news.
Ousted Tory MP reveals David Cameron, but not Theresa May, has contacted him
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Theresa May, in 2017, apparently phoned all of the MPs who lost their seats in 2017 personally within the first 24 hours after the election.
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Theresa May, in 2017, apparently phoned all of the MPs who lost their seats in 2017 personally within the first 24 hours after the election.
Fake news.
Ousted Tory MP reveals David Cameron, but not Theresa May, has contacted him
I believe you, but I'm not sure I'd believe Stewart Jackson told the truth about that, I've seen him in person whinge about May and I don't think he is rational about her.
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Theresa May, in 2017, apparently phoned all of the MPs who lost their seats in 2017 personally within the first 24 hours after the election.
Fake news.
Ousted Tory MP reveals David Cameron, but not Theresa May, has contacted him
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
The sound of celebratory gunfire on here was deafening for days. It was reminiscent of the Ayatollah Khomeini's homecoming to Tehran.
What better way to celebrate the ninth year of the thousand year PB Tory reich?
Could we talk you down to a five hundred year reich?
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Corbyn can barely remember his own name.
I don't think so, he seems to have a perfect memory for any policy or grievance that existed in 1983.
No surprise at all that the age crossover point has moved downwards. This is what one would expect in case of a sizeable Conservative victory - and, as long as they can keep it around 40, they'll keep winning and winning.
The median age of the population is now just over 40, and should continue to creep up gradually for many years to come - which, given that children don't have the vote, evidently leaves the party that is most popular amongst everyone aged around 40 and over at a great advantage. If the Tories can fix housing, and thus prevent the numbers of frustrated, trapped middle-aged renters from ballooning, then they may be able to keep going for a long time.
Labour, on the other hand, might have to wait for the proportion of BAME voters in the upper age groups to start to rise substantially before it can get back into the game - and pray that the Tories don't work out how to connect with Black and Muslim voters in the meantime...
In case anybody is interested (and cos it took time for me to do the calculations from the ONS data!) I'll repeat what I said lower down the thread ... the median age of over 18s only is about 46. The quartiles (bottom 25% and top 25%) are about 32 and 62.
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
I see that in Bury South the Tories took the seat with a majority of 402, while Ivan Lewis got 1366 votes despite withdrawing and endorsing the Conservative candidate - so I guess if he had not done that it truly would have been a Labour hold.
A few things that strike me about demographics at the next election: 1) the youngest voters who were eligible to vote for TB in 2005 (the last labour 'win') will be 37 in 2024 (assuming a 5 year parliament) 2) by the use of maths the similar cohort of voters in 2010 will be 32. 3) First time voters at the next election will have been born between 2001 and 2006.
The age of voters who have never voted for a Labour government will keep going up and this will make it harder for the Tories to maintain the current situation (especially if they've been in power for 14 years).
Assuming that Labour don't form a government at the next election* by the following election there will be a cohort of voters in 2029 who were not born when Labour were last in power. unless Labour keep putting forward the unelectable these voters will become a larger and more important base of the electorate and will start to say 'how bad could a Labour government be?' They did in 1997 (I was one of them).
(* I'm not predicting here I just remember posts by OGH before 2010 stating that no government with a working majority has been replaced by another one of a different party for a long time)
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Corbyn can barely remember his own name.
I don't think so, he seems to have a perfect memory for any policy or grievance that existed in 1983.
Evil 'Fatcha' conspired against the miners! Have I had my tea yet?
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Theresa May, in 2017, apparently phoned all of the MPs who lost their seats in 2017 personally within the first 24 hours after the election.
I think phoning people who you have, in effect, caused to be made redundant is the very least the leader can do but the impressive thing about Cameron that day was that we were just candidates and not sitting MPs. Mind you it is astonishing that Corbyn apparently hasn't even phoned - and gives us a small reminder of what government by the hard left might actually be like.
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
The sound of celebratory gunfire on here was deafening for days. It was reminiscent of the Ayatollah Khomeini's homecoming to Tehran.
What better way to celebrate the ninth year of the thousand year PB Tory reich?
Could we talk you down to a five hundred year reich?
Good evening everyone. My first visit since just before the exit poll. Couldn't face the hubris on here. Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
The sound of celebratory gunfire on here was deafening for days. It was reminiscent of the Ayatollah Khomeini's homecoming to Tehran.
What better way to celebrate the ninth year of the thousand year PB Tory reich?
Could we talk you down to a five hundred year reich?
Glad to see that the PLP are cowards. "Go now Jeremy it's your fault". "No". "Oh ok then please lead us some more".
Pointless cowards
If the useless potatoes simply sit on the green benches for long enough then those who don't die of old age will be back in power eventually. I mean, even if Boris Johnson turns out to be a good Prime Minister, the public will eventually get bored of the Tories and Buggins' turn will apply.
There is no justice in any of this, of course - the entire North London cabal survived, and Caroline Flint got the chop whilst Mr Bacon Sandwich didn't - but who said politics was fair?
Glad to see that the PLP are cowards. "Go now Jeremy it's your fault". "No". "Oh ok then please lead us some more".
Pointless cowards
If the useless potatoes simply sit on the green benches for long enough then those who don't die of old age will be back in power eventually. I mean, even if Boris Johnson turns out to be a good Prime Minister, the public will eventually get bored of the Tories and Buggins' turn will apply.
There is no justice in any of this, of course - the entire North London cabal survived, and Caroline Flint got the chop whilst Mr Bacon Sandwich didn't - but who said politics was fair?
We may have to stop making the android jokes about their voters now that we've learned how to reprogramme some of them
What a very rude man! We don't want his sort in our little perpetual opposition cabal!
When I was an unsuccessful candidate in the 2010 election David Cameron had a reception at 10 downing Street to personally apologize to 100 or so of us from target seats. And when I say 'personally' he made sure he remembered all of us by name without an assistant telling them who we were and came round one by one. I felt we owed him an apology for not having delivered him a majority and he felt he owed us an apology for not having lifted this over the threshold to win our seats. Compare and contrast that's all I have to say.
Theresa May, in 2017, apparently phoned all of the MPs who lost their seats in 2017 personally within the first 24 hours after the election.
I think phoning people who you have, in effect, caused to be made redundant is the very least the leader can do but the impressive thing about Cameron that day was that we were just candidates and not sitting MPs. Mind you it is astonishing that Corbyn apparently hasn't even phoned - and gives us a small reminder of what government by the hard left might actually be like.
His apology said "I will take my share of the failure" IIRC, notice the "my" in there. I think he sees the failure as a group effort, so the MP's that lost their seats must share their part of the blame. But really he does not see himself as answerable to the PLP, he seems himself as answerable to the Membership.
Can I just clarify what your position is on that KT tweet, Just to check how far you're down the Trump rabbit hole like?
You ask this of the person who wants to send an armed militia to Scotland to drag grannies out of polling places should there be a second independence referendum.
Until they next win an election, when it will mysteriously evaporate.
Well IIRC I don't remember it in their manifesto, which had votes at 16 and so on, so if they do go for it it definitely is result dependent rather than principle.
Is there any evidence what older voters think about votes at 16? I wonder if they are a bit hostile, and being older and more conservative leaning it is not going to help the Labour cause. Personally while there is clearly a case for it, there is a good case against as well. Older voters may think 16 year olds are a bit lacking in mature independent judgement.
You're not an adult at 16. You can't smoke, drink, drive a car, fight in a war or even leave school at that age any more. You have no life experience and probably still live in your parents house under their rules. I can think of no justification for allowing enfranchisement at that age.
Can I just clarify what your position is on that KT tweet, Just to check how far you're down the Trump rabbit hole like?
You ask this of the person who wants to send an armed militia to Scotland to drag grannies out of polling places should there be a second independence referendum.
Until they next win an election, when it will mysteriously evaporate.
Well IIRC I don't remember it in their manifesto, which had votes at 16 and so on, so if they do go for it it definitely is result dependent rather than principle.
Is there any evidence what older voters think about votes at 16? I wonder if they are a bit hostile, and being older and more conservative leaning it is not going to help the Labour cause. Personally while there is clearly a case for it, there is a good case against as well. Older voters may think 16 year olds are a bit lacking in mature independent judgement.
You're not an adult at 16. You can't smoke, drink, drive a car, fight in a war or even leave school at that age any more. You have no life experience and probably still live in your parents house under their rules. I can think of no justification for allowing enfranchisement at that age.
There's plenty of justification to be given (or invented) by any party for which children are more likely to vote. Hence the fact that I suspect that Labour will cut the voting age to 16 as soon as they next get the chance.
Unless they need to rely on the Greens for their majority, in which case it'll go down to seven.
Can I just clarify what your position is on that KT tweet, Just to check how far you're down the Trump rabbit hole like?
You ask this of the person who wants to send an armed militia to Scotland to drag grannies out of polling places should there be a second independence referendum.
Until they next win an election, when it will mysteriously evaporate.
Well IIRC I don't remember it in their manifesto, which had votes at 16 and so on, so if they do go for it it definitely is result dependent rather than principle.
Is there any evidence what older voters think about votes at 16? I wonder if they are a bit hostile, and being older and more conservative leaning it is not going to help the Labour cause. Personally while there is clearly a case for it, there is a good case against as well. Older voters may think 16 year olds are a bit lacking in mature independent judgement.
You're not an adult at 16. You can't smoke, drink, drive a car, fight in a war or even leave school at that age any more. You have no life experience and probably still live in your parents house under their rules. I can think of no justification for allowing enfranchisement at that age.
Basing the age of enfranchisement on your criteria, perhaps Boris should consider raising the age at which one can smoke, drink, drive a car or enlist to 50.
You're not an adult at 16. You can't smoke, drink, drive a car, fight in a war or even leave school at that age any more. You have no life experience and probably still live in your parents house under their rules. I can think of no justification for allowing enfranchisement at that age.
Is this a discussion about the minimum age at which boys should be allowed to play for the Liverpool 1st team?
Glad to see that the PLP are cowards. "Go now Jeremy it's your fault". "No". "Oh ok then please lead us some more".
Pointless cowards
I keep saying this. One more heave, third time lucky!
I do worry that the Loony Left will eventually get in if it keeps banging on about the NHS for long enough, although the collapse of the Red Wall gives me some hope. If (and it's a big "if") the Tories can make a decent fist of delivering for these parts of the country, then there is a distinct possibility that they will go safe for the blues and may never go back to Labour again.
Bear in mind what's happened in the States, with the Republicans starting to do very well amongst lower income voters and the Democrats finding their support concentrated amongst middle-class left-liberals and ethnic minorities. As there, so here - except the ethnic minority vote is a smaller fraction of the British electorate and largely concentrated in Labour's remaining safe seats in the urban cores.
And, of course, if Scotland goes then the Left's crutch is kicked away. The Tory majority in rUK isn't 80. It's 127.
Comments
IDK, I recall reading on the BBC that Grime was not as passionate about Corbyn as they used to be
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-50389374
But that's probably just the evil media talking again.
And as for Simon Jenkins, why why must I be afflicted with the witterings of another paradigmatic metropolitan aristo? He's up there with Rod Liddle and [long sweary list redacted] who, when I am elected Supreme Commander, I will cheerfully throw into a pit of scorpions.
If Liverpool win tonight I'll eat a pizza with a pineapple topping.
Although, now he does not have to worry to much about winning Richmond, perhaps he can be/will be more amenable?
Anyone, I cant bring myself to say good luck to BJ and his mob, but will say I will be waiting ing to call him out when he inevitably breaks the promises he made.
Until they next win an election, when it will mysteriously evaporate.
So you can be pretty pleased that your region held up well.
Ousted Tory MP reveals David Cameron, but not Theresa May, has contacted him
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/86583/ousted-tory-mp-reveals-david
I can confirm that Stewart Jackson was not alone.
Labour 203
(only kidding!)
1) the youngest voters who were eligible to vote for TB in 2005 (the last labour 'win') will be 37 in 2024 (assuming a 5 year parliament)
2) by the use of maths the similar cohort of voters in 2010 will be 32.
3) First time voters at the next election will have been born between 2001 and 2006.
The age of voters who have never voted for a Labour government will keep going up and this will make it harder for the Tories to maintain the current situation (especially if they've been in power for 14 years).
Assuming that Labour don't form a government at the next election* by the following election there will be a cohort of voters in 2029 who were not born when Labour were last in power. unless Labour keep putting forward the unelectable these voters will become a larger and more important base of the electorate and will start to say 'how bad could a Labour government be?' They did in 1997 (I was one of them).
(* I'm not predicting here I just remember posts by OGH before 2010 stating that no government with a working majority has been replaced by another one of a different party for a long time)
Free money.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1207034025258496007
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1207034442365190144
Hillary 48%
Trump 46%
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7802757/The-problem-Furious-Labour-MPs-tear-Jeremy-Corbyn-partys-election-humiliation.html
Speaking to reporters on the way in, Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell asked reporters: 'We're irrelevant. Why do you give a f***?'
Pointless cowards
There is no justice in any of this, of course - the entire North London cabal survived, and Caroline Flint got the chop whilst Mr Bacon Sandwich didn't - but who said politics was fair?
But really he does not see himself as answerable to the PLP, he seems himself as answerable to the Membership.
Sometimes.
Unless they need to rely on the Greens for their majority, in which case it'll go down to seven.
https://youtu.be/N_5u2eQG59o
Has Thornberry ruled herself out?
At 65s she might be worth a fiver.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/07/02/corbyns-protegee-rebecca-long-bailey-now-betting-favourite-to-be-his-successor/
The comments are interesting with hindsight. Particularly this one:
Bear in mind what's happened in the States, with the Republicans starting to do very well amongst lower income voters and the Democrats finding their support concentrated amongst middle-class left-liberals and ethnic minorities. As there, so here - except the ethnic minority vote is a smaller fraction of the British electorate and largely concentrated in Labour's remaining safe seats in the urban cores.
And, of course, if Scotland goes then the Left's crutch is kicked away. The Tory majority in rUK isn't 80. It's 127.