politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A LAB leadership election without Starmer on the ballot would
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Thanks!BudG said:
I guess she has a chance, but not as great as her current odds suggest imo, although in a world where Jess Phillips has traded in single figures, what do I know?kicorse said:Not much discussion here about Lisa Nandy, although the rest of the media is full of her.
I'm interested because I've wished for a year that she were PM (never thought that about any individual before). One of the few MPs who didn't lose their heads or their moral compass over Brexit, and now maybe the only MP who is being constructive and saying insightful things about how Labour needs to change.
And her odds have shortened dramatically.
But does she actually have a chance at the leadership, or is it all just hype?
The problem that Lisa Nandy will have in getting elected is the Labour membership are largely made up of Corbynistas and Nandy was one of those who resigned from shadow cabinet in 2016 and tried to force Corbyn out. She then went on to be co-chairman of Owen Smith leadership challenge against Corbyn.
So, as you can imagine, she is not particularly popular amongst the Corbyn cult who will have a major say over who his replacement will be.
You're the second person today I've seen imply a connection between Nandy and Phillips. To me they are poles apart, and I could never vote for a party led by Phillips. She too often uses the language of hate, both towards Corbyn and on issues she doesn't understand (e.g. male suicide), whereas - yes - Nandy resigned from Corbyn's cabinet and opposed him, but I've never heard her be anything other than constructive towards him since then.
I actually like Corbyn and his values, just not his unelectability or the lunatics who saw him as an opportunity to spread their hate. I probably would have voted for him in 2015 if I'd been a member. I get that the inner circle and the hard left will view Nandy as a traitor, but I'm hoping that many of the less active members who supported him won't care about that factional nonsense.
Anyway, I'm not planning to bet on her. I wish I had done when she was 25-1 though. I thought about it.0 -
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Clearly the post of the year!HYUFD said:
Edit. I actually meant HYUFD's sequence of posts. All posted at the same time and it was a nice summary.1 -
Starmer is Labour's Grieve. Pompous and squeaky with no chance of connecting with voters outside their own demographic.2
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And how do you know that most of them voted Tory? Or, indeed, that most Tory voters were them? I agree it’s likely, but you need to delve a bit deeper than that.HYUFD said:
59.5% of Stoke residents own a property outright or with a mortgageydoethur said:
What is your source for that, please?HYUFD said:most Stoke Tory voters already own a property
https://www.ilivehere.co.uk/statistics-stoke-on-trent-city-of-stoke-on-trent-36516.html
In London only 49.5% of residents own a property by contrast
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/most-families-in-london-now-rent-rather-than-own-homes-8347013.html0 -
I think the BBC, as it now is, is something we would only fully appreciate once it has gone. FWIW I think the license fee is worth it for Radio 4 alone (and you don't even need to pay it to get it). I think the thousands or millions who would think along the same lines include some Tory voters.Sandpit said:
But the average person will see the abolition of the licence fee as a £154.50 tax cut, not to mention the many millions more saved by not clogging up magistrates courts with more than 10% of the total number of prosecutions in England last year - mostly of elderly and ‘vulnerable’ people, with the associated negative headlines for the government.alex_ said:
Not convinced that the anti-BBC stuff from the Govt is about anything other than trying to come to some resolution on over 75 licences. Johnson has written some very pro BBC opinion pieces in his time.Harris_Tweed said:
Has Nicky Morgan got dodgy photos of Boris or something? I get that he rewarded her for loyalty when he first came to power. But for her then to sit out the election and keep her job.. especially when there’s a well-trained Rottweiler like Whittingdale* ready to return and rip the still-beating heart out of the BBC? Personally a bit surprised.ydoethur said:
Yes, although it’s not without precedent. George Robertson did it in 1999.noneoftheabove said:Anyone else slightly uneasy about a cabinet minister stepping down from being an MP but keeping their job post election?
(* I actually think he’s rather more nuanced than that. He did a neat pivot when he got promoted from Chair of the Commons Slagging off the Beeb in the Sunday Papers
Committee to SoS last time
)
The BBC is great, but the media market is unrecognisable from where it was only a decade ago. Let them raise their own money, and let DCMS provide grants directly for “public service” programming to whoever will make and screen it at no cost to the consumer.
Sell off C4 too, another few billion for the Northern England Infrastructure Fund.
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Ignore the title but the last few paragraphs are very apposite today - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/02/28/why-corbyn-should-stay/.
As is this - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/05/19/what-makes-a-good-leader/.
Not that Labour is paying attention.0 -
To be honest the views of obvious tories and other party faithful on the next labour leadership are irrelevant because the moment they are in place they will seek to destroy them as with anybody else who is not on side. At the moment we have some long standing labour posters who appear to have decided to hibernate, not a bad idea as one needs to rid ones self of Pb addiction and rejoin the real world, who’s views are probably more relevant. Personally I’m looking forward to 10 days with limited internet access and something better to do in the evenings after all I gave up a 40+ cigarettes habit a year ago so Pb should be easy! Merry Xmas one and all and a new year bringing you what you wish for.1
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I like the guy but agree you are right. On the grounds of common sense it has to be Phillips or Nandy - preferably Phillips, which means it will doubtless be Long- Bailey.maaarsh said:Starmer is Labour's Grieve. Pompous and squeaky with no chance of connecting with voters outside their own demographic.
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You arsed that up by telling us the place is valueless for years.alex_ said:
Perhaps we could sell Scotland to the Scots in a leveraged buyout. Think outside the box.DavidL said:
Well let’s eliminate the trade deficit then. Not hard. Cut consumption by 10% or so, increase the savings ratio by another 20%. Accept a fairly serious increase in unemployment, maybe a million or so. Or keep selling our assets to pay for the crap. London housing is probably the least harmful of what we have to sell.noneoftheabove said:
Foreign oligarchs, launderers and speculators making London their playground doesnt benefit the UK, nor Londoners.HYUFD said:
No, the North as well as the South, if London renters want to buy a property so badly they can move out of the capital where it is cheaper especially as rail links and broadband improvesnoneoftheabove said:
So one nation conservatism is now about representing Tory voters only?HYUFD said:
Most of the London renters voted Labour anyway, most Stoke Tory voters already own a propertynoneoftheabove said:
In what way does that help the people of London who are mostly renting and hoping for prices to come back to wages?nichomar said:
In what way does hat help people in Stoke?HYUFD said:A surge of London property deals gave been completed after Corbyn was defeated.
In 1 case a 6 bed Belgravia penthouse was sold for £65 million to a Hong Kong businessman hours after the Tory majority was confirmed
https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/london-property-boris-johnson-election-win-property-deals-worth-mega-millions-a135466.html0 -
Mandelson says Boris could get a very minimalist Canada minus style FTA within a year but would need longer for a closer aligned deal, says in some respects the Labour defeat was deserved on a far left platform and deeply unpopular leaderFrancisUrquhart said:I don't like the slimey Mandelson, but he knows politics....
https://youtu.be/I3grOfZ75180 -
A penny-hal'penny sort of place for centuries..Theuniondivvie said:
You arsed that up by telling us the place is valueless for years.alex_ said:
Perhaps we could sell Scotland to the Scots in a leveraged buyout. Think outside the box.DavidL said:
Well let’s eliminate the trade deficit then. Not hard. Cut consumption by 10% or so, increase the savings ratio by another 20%. Accept a fairly serious increase in unemployment, maybe a million or so. Or keep selling our assets to pay for the crap. London housing is probably the least harmful of what we have to sell.noneoftheabove said:
Foreign oligarchs, launderers and speculators making London their playground doesnt benefit the UK, nor Londoners.HYUFD said:
No, the North as well as the South, if London renters want to buy a property so badly they can move out of the capital where it is cheaper especially as rail links and broadband improvesnoneoftheabove said:
So one nation conservatism is now about representing Tory voters only?HYUFD said:
Most of the London renters voted Labour anyway, most Stoke Tory voters already own a propertynoneoftheabove said:
In what way does that help the people of London who are mostly renting and hoping for prices to come back to wages?nichomar said:
In what way does hat help people in Stoke?HYUFD said:A surge of London property deals gave been completed after Corbyn was defeated.
In 1 case a 6 bed Belgravia penthouse was sold for £65 million to a Hong Kong businessman hours after the Tory majority was confirmed
https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/london-property-boris-johnson-election-win-property-deals-worth-mega-millions-a135466.html
(I don't for one moment stand by this comment, but I just had to say it!)0 -
Long Bailey would be a bad choice, IMO, because she has spent the last four years being factional, is closely identified with the far-left that the electorate has just so comprehensively rejected and will not have any moral authority to deal with the forthcoming EHRC report. However, trying to find some positives, I would say that she is in the McDonnell camp, not the Corbyn one. Pidcock was the great Corbyn hope. Being in the McDonnell camp she will be largely focused on domestic issues, not the nonsense that got Corbyn motivated, and she will actually want to win rather than just control the Labour party. That would open up the shadow cabinet to a much wider selection of MPs than was ever possible under Corbyn. In that way, should Johnson's lies come back to bite him on the arse, Labour might be in a position to capitalise in a way they never were under Corbyn. To become a serious party once more, though, Labour needs to wave good bye to the far left's control. For me, Lisa Nandy is the stand-out candidate. That almost certainly means she does not have a chance.Omnium said:
Not my theory.NickPalmer said:
The theory of punters is that the membership will go for the leftier choice, and RLB seems to be getting backing from that side. I'm not really sure that the members will be steered quite as automatically as that - if there's a candidate who doesn't take a factional position a lot of us will be interested. But having a leadership team who are close friends is a good idea - one thing that really worked well for Corbyn/Mconnell, and up to a point Corbyn/Watson (Watson headed off the split very neatly), and we can all do without more Blair/Brown-style psychodramas.Omnium said:How far to the left would you guess RLB is? She strikes me as a little less rabid left than Corbyn, but only slightly so.
So perhaps McDonnell =92%, Corbyn=90%, RLB=85%, BBC=52%, Bercow=50% (ok that one's a joke), Boris=20% and Jacob Rees Mogg=5% (say)
Just a made up scale, and probably wrong, but quite interested to see whether I have the order right, and whether you think RLB is more or less far left.
I backed her a while back, but flattened out long ago for small profits - amazed she's priced as she is.
You, NP, will gravitate a tad to the right?
You didn't answer the question of course at all though!
RLB - what actually might she stand for?
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As the Tories got 62% in Stoke South, 52% in Stoke North and 45% in Stoke Centralydoethur said:
And how do you know that most of them voted Tory? Or, indeed, that most Tory voters were them? I agree it’s likely, but you need to delve a bit deeper than that.HYUFD said:
59.5% of Stoke residents own a property outright or with a mortgageydoethur said:
What is your source for that, please?HYUFD said:most Stoke Tory voters already own a property
https://www.ilivehere.co.uk/statistics-stoke-on-trent-city-of-stoke-on-trent-36516.html
In London only 49.5% of residents own a property by contrast
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/most-families-in-london-now-rent-rather-than-own-homes-8347013.html0 -
I don't know enough about RLB to answer - what you say as a shadow Minister and what you want to do as leader can be subtly different. I'm keeping an open mind, though I won't support someone bent on fomenting civil war within the party (from either side). I do think we need to move on a generation, so won't be backing Ed or Yvette either. I'd like someone who is left-wing but pragmatic about achieving progress in steps rather than (implausibly) all at once.Omnium said:
You, NP, will gravitate a tad to the right?
You didn't answer the question of course at all though!
RLB - what actually might she stand for?0 -
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.0 -
So?HYUFD said:
As the Tories got 62% in Stoke South, 52% in Stoke North and 45% in Stoke Centralydoethur said:
And how do you know that most of them voted Tory? Or, indeed, that most Tory voters were them? I agree it’s likely, but you need to delve a bit deeper than that.HYUFD said:
59.5% of Stoke residents own a property outright or with a mortgageydoethur said:
What is your source for that, please?HYUFD said:most Stoke Tory voters already own a property
https://www.ilivehere.co.uk/statistics-stoke-on-trent-city-of-stoke-on-trent-36516.html
In London only 49.5% of residents own a property by contrast
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/most-families-in-london-now-rent-rather-than-own-homes-8347013.html0 -
At the 2017 general election 55% of owner occupiers voted Tory, 43% of mortgage holders but only 31% of private renters and 26% of social tenants, the Tories vote was little changed from 2017, if fractionally upHYUFD said:
As the Tories got 62% in Stoke South, 52% in Stoke North and 45% in Stoke Centralydoethur said:
And how do you know that most of them voted Tory? Or, indeed, that most Tory voters were them? I agree it’s likely, but you need to delve a bit deeper than that.HYUFD said:
59.5% of Stoke residents own a property outright or with a mortgageydoethur said:
What is your source for that, please?HYUFD said:most Stoke Tory voters already own a property
https://www.ilivehere.co.uk/statistics-stoke-on-trent-city-of-stoke-on-trent-36516.html
In London only 49.5% of residents own a property by contrast
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/most-families-in-london-now-rent-rather-than-own-homes-8347013.html
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJQ5vQ3vddrEEAwTxB4iA5;_ylu=X3oDMTEzOGxxczhvBGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDTU9VSzAxXzEEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1576554320/RO=10/RU=https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-06/how-britain-voted-in-the-2017-election_2.pdf/RK=2/RS=RsUBCiEypi73p9aF1Fe_oacLICU-0 -
Thanks SO.SouthamObserver said:
Long Bailey would be a bad choice, IMO, because she has spent the last four years being factional, is closely identified with the far-left that the electorate has just so comprehensively rejected and will not have any moral authority to deal with the forthcoming EHRC report. However, trying to find some positives, I would say that she is in the McDonnell camp, not the Corbyn one. Pidcock was the great Corbyn hope. Being in the McDonnell camp she will be largely focused on domestic issues, not the nonsense that got Corbyn motivated, and she will actually want to win rather than just control the Labour party. That would open up the shadow cabinet to a much wider selection of MPs than was ever possible under Corbyn. In that way, should Johnson's lies come back to bite him on the arse, Labour might be in a position to capitalise in a way they never were under Corbyn. To become a serious party once more, though, Labour needs to wave good bye to the far left's control. For me, Lisa Nandy is the stand-out candidate. That almost certainly means she does not have a chance.Omnium said:
Not my theory.NickPalmer said:
The theory of punters is that the membership will go for the leftier choice, and RLB seems to be getting backing from that side. I'm not really sure that the members will be steered quite as automatically as that - if there's a candidate who doesn't take a factional position a lot of us will be interested. But having a leadership team who are close friends is a good idea - one thing that really worked well for Corbyn/Mconnell, and up to a point Corbyn/Watson (Watson headed off the split very neatly), and we can all do without more Blair/Brown-style psychodramas.
You, NP, will gravitate a tad to the right?
You didn't answer the question of course at all though!
RLB - what actually might she stand for?
Nandy is excellent, but she may finish up being that in the way LauraK is excellent - you're daft if you disagree, but you're not fighting the corner.
I posted on saturday (when a little drunk) that I'd backed Rosena AK.
I'm all green on next Labour leader. Five years of the dispatch box faces whoever it is. Five years against Boris. We'd all kill him for a week, because the advantage is not being the PM. Five years though.0 -
Johnson’s past, present or future behavior will do for him not his politics but for once I will actually hope that there is more to him than I feared. Time will tell, he has that time let’s see how it goes.Mexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.1 -
I believe Long-Bailey is an ambitious pragmatist. Should she see the opportunity to become PM I am sure she will tack to the centre if that means she fulfills that ambition. Unlike Corbyn she is neither stubborn nor stupid.NickPalmer said:
I don't know enough about RLB to answer - what you say as a shadow Minister and what you want to do as leader can be subtly different. I'm keeping an open mind, though I won't support someone bent on fomenting civil war within the party (from either side). I do think we need to move on a generation, so won't be backing Ed or Yvette either. I'd like someone who is left-wing but pragmatic about achieving progress in steps rather than (implausibly) all at once.Omnium said:
You, NP, will gravitate a tad to the right?
You didn't answer the question of course at all though!
RLB - what actually might she stand for?0 -
Boris has won the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987, in 1992 the economy was not doing great but the Tories still won another term as the alternative was Kinnock running on a similar platform to that which lost in 1987. It took Blair in 1997 on a more centrist programme to return Labour to powerMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.0 -
Class actFrancisUrquhart said:I don't like the slimey Mandelson, but he knows politics....
https://youtu.be/I3grOfZ75180 -
He threatened to emigrate recently. Is there any way we could legally enforce his promise?HYUFD said:
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Boris won not one but two terms as Mayor of London.Mexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.1 -
I didn't imply a connection between Phillips and Nandy, other than to say that perhaps my judgement is not good because obviously someone thought that Phillips was an 8/1 shot and others think Nandy has better than a 20% chance.kicorse said:
Thanks!BudG said:
I guess she has a chance, but not as great as her current odds suggest imo, although in a world where Jess Phillips has traded in single figures, what do I know?kicorse said:Not much discussion here about Lisa Nandy, although the rest of the media is full of her.
I'm interested because I've wished for a year that she were PM (never thought that about any individual before). One of the few MPs who didn't lose their heads or their moral compass over Brexit, and now maybe the only MP who is being constructive and saying insightful things about how Labour needs to change.
And her odds have shortened dramatically.
But does she actually have a chance at the leadership, or is it all just hype?
The problem that Lisa Nandy will have in getting elected is the Labour membership are largely made up of Corbynistas and Nandy was one of those who resigned from shadow cabinet in 2016 and tried to force Corbyn out. She then went on to be co-chairman of Owen Smith leadership challenge against Corbyn.
So, as you can imagine, she is not particularly popular amongst the Corbyn cult who will have a major say over who his replacement will be.
You're the second person today I've seen imply a connection between Nandy and Phillips. To me they are poles apart, and I could never vote for a party led by Phillips. She too often uses the language of hate, both towards Corbyn and on issues she doesn't understand (e.g. male suicide), whereas - yes - Nandy resigned from Corbyn's cabinet and opposed him, but I've never heard her be anything other than constructive towards him since then.
I actually like Corbyn and his values, just not his unelectability or the lunatics who saw him as an opportunity to spread their hate. I probably would have voted for him in 2015 if I'd been a member. I get that the inner circle and the hard left will view Nandy as a traitor, but I'm hoping that many of the less active members who supported him won't care about that factional nonsense.
Anyway, I'm not planning to bet on her. I wish I had done when she was 25-1 though. I thought about it.
Phillips is the only one in the field that I am red on and if she were to get the gig, then I would resign my membership.
However, I am keeping Nandy onside betting-wise.0 -
Boris vs RLB
Blond on blonde0 -
If it’s five years it will mean Johnson is in serious trouble. We all need to be thinking 2023, not 2024.Omnium said:
Thanks SO.SouthamObserver said:
Long Bailey would be a bad choice, IMO, because she has spent the last four years being factional, is closely identified with the far-left that the electorate has just so comprehensively rejected and will not have any moral authority to deal with the forthcoming EHRC report. However, trying to find some positives, I would say that she is in the McDonnell camp, not the Corbyn one. Pidcock was the great Corbyn hope. Being in the McDonnell camp she will be largely focused on domestic issues, not the nonsense that got Corbyn motivated, and she will actually want to win rather than just control the Labour party. That would open up the shadow cabinet to a much wider selection of MPs than was ever possible under Corbyn. In that way, should Johnson's lies come back to bite him on the arse, Labour might be in a position to capitalise in a way they never were under Corbyn. To become a serious party once more, though, Labour needs to wave good bye to the far left's control. For me, Lisa Nandy is the stand-out candidate. That almost certainly means she does not have a chance.Omnium said:
Not my theory.NickPalmer said:
The theory of punters is that the membership will go for the leftier choice, and RLB seems to be getting backing from that side. I'm not really sure that the members will be steered quite as automatically as that - if there's a candidate who doesn't take a factional position a lot of us will be interested. But having a leadership team who are close friends is a good idea - one thing that really worked well for Corbyn/Mconnell, and up to a point Corbyn/Watson (Watson headed off the split very neatly), and we can all do without more Blair/Brown-style psychodramas.
You, NP, will gravitate a tad to the right?
You didn't answer the question of course at all though!
RLB - what actually might she stand for?
Nandy is excellent, but she may finish up being that in the way LauraK is excellent - you're daft if you disagree, but you're not fighting the corner.
I posted on saturday (when a little drunk) that I'd backed Rosena AK.
I'm all green on next Labour leader. Five years of the dispatch box faces whoever it is. Five years against Boris. We'd all kill him for a week, because the advantage is not being the PM. Five years though.
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Perhaps the Labour Party actually cannot be saved. A party that is split 60:40 or 70:30 into irreconcilable factions is too unstable to prosper. It is better for all that a ruthless victor brings the civil war to an end, one way or another.
“Earlier this year Tom Watson was the one holding moderates back in… there will be many… who will take the view that they have been abandoned" (Shuker)
For the point of view of the moderates, it does now look as though Gavin Shuker & Co were right and Tom Watson was wrong (and then, worst of all, he gave up!).
If 50 had defected to TIG rather than 10, then 2019 might have been very different.
Maybe after the the election of the leader, it may become obvious that the Labour party in its current manifestation cannot be saved.
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Your original comment was about 2019. I was therefore wondering if you had some actual, available research showing what you had claimed. All you have done is parrot a series of admittedly interesting but not conclusively linked statistics at me. That is not how you do it.HYUFD said:
At the 2017 general election 55% of owner occupiers voted Tory, 43% of mortgage holders but only 31% of private renters and 26% of social tenants, the Tories vote was little changed from 2017, if fractionally upHYUFD said:
As the Tories got 62% in Stoke South, 52% in Stoke North and 45% in Stoke Centralydoethur said:
And how do you know that most of them voted Tory? Or, indeed, that most Tory voters were them? I agree it’s likely, but you need to delve a bit deeper than that.HYUFD said:
59.5% of Stoke residents own a property outright or with a mortgageydoethur said:
What is your source for that, please?HYUFD said:most Stoke Tory voters already own a property
https://www.ilivehere.co.uk/statistics-stoke-on-trent-city-of-stoke-on-trent-36516.html
In London only 49.5% of residents own a property by contrast
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/most-families-in-london-now-rent-rather-than-own-homes-8347013.html
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJQ5vQ3vddrEEAwTxB4iA5;_ylu=X3oDMTEzOGxxczhvBGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDTU9VSzAxXzEEc2VjA3Ny/RV=2/RE=1576554320/RO=10/RU=https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-06/how-britain-voted-in-the-2017-election_2.pdf/RK=2/RS=RsUBCiEypi73p9aF1Fe_oacLICU-
The reason I was interested in it was because, if home ownership and Tory voting are to correlate strongly, that means that they are going to increasingly struggle in the south - where people are priced out of the market unless they are very wealthy - and increasingly dominate north of Birmingham, where housing remains affordable for ordinary people.
That obviously had other implications for the overall policy offerings and political positioning of the different parties.
But I think we’re going to need some more specific evidence before drawing these conclusions.0 -
All good.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't like the slimey Mandelson, but he knows politics....
https://youtu.be/I3grOfZ7518
But who exactly was paying him how much to be in Doha this week?
What’s his view on Qatar’s sponsorship of the Iranian rebels waging war against the government in Yemen?0 -
Rebecca models herself on Nicola Sturgeon I reckon.Mexicanpete said:
I believe Long-Bailey is an ambitious pragmatist. Should she see the opportunity to become PM I am sure she will tack to the centre if that means she fulfills that ambition. Unlike Corbyn she is neither stubborn nor stupid.NickPalmer said:
I don't know enough about RLB to answer - what you say as a shadow Minister and what you want to do as leader can be subtly different. I'm keeping an open mind, though I won't support someone bent on fomenting civil war within the party (from either side). I do think we need to move on a generation, so won't be backing Ed or Yvette either. I'd like someone who is left-wing but pragmatic about achieving progress in steps rather than (implausibly) all at once.Omnium said:
You, NP, will gravitate a tad to the right?
You didn't answer the question of course at all though!
RLB - what actually might she stand for?0 -
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.0 -
Rebecca is now 5-4 is most bookies.Anabobazina said:Boris vs RLB
Blond on blonde0 -
ydoethur said:
Yes it is given the data for 2019 is not out yet but will almost certainly show the same thing given the Tories got 42% in 2017 and 43.6% in 2019.HYUFD said:
At the 2017 general election 55% of owner occupiers voted Tory, 43% of mortgage holders but only 31% of private renters and 26% of social tenants, the Tories vote was little changed d statistics at me. That is not how you do it.HYUFD said:
As the Tories got 62% in Stoke South, 52% in Stoke North and 45% in Stoke Centralydoethur said:
And how do you know that most of them voted Tory? Or, indeed, that most Tory voters were them? I agree it’s likely, but you need to delve a bit deeper than that.HYUFD said:
59.5% of Stoke residents own a property outright or with a mortgageydoethur said:
What is your source for that, please?HYUFD said:most Stoke Tory voters already own a property
https://www.ilivehere.co.uk/statistics-stoke-on-trent-city-of-stoke-on-trent-36516.html
In London only 49.5% of residents own a property by contrast
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/most-families-in-london-now-rent-rather-than-own-homes-8347013.html
The reason I was interested in it was because, if home ownership and Tory voting are to correlate strongly, that means that they are going to increasingly struggle in the south - where people are priced out of the market unless they are very wealthy - and increasingly dominate north of Birmingham, where housing remains affordable for ordinary people.
That obviously had other implications for the overall policy offerings and political positioning of the different parties.
But I think we’re going to need some more specific evidence before drawing these conclusions.
The Tories won owner occupiers and mortgage holders in 2017 and most renters and given in 2019 the Tories won the country overall where most voters are property owners but again lost London where most voters are renters it would be virtually impossible for them to show anything different.
Your conclusion is generally a sound one, hence smaller Tory majorities in Surrey and 2 lost Tory seats in London but Tory gains in the Midlands, Wales, the East and the North.
However even in the South outside of London most still own property, hence the Tories still won there, only in the capital do most now rent, hence the Tories again lost there0 -
The problem is with brand ownership and funding, the brand is in the control of the NEC and the funding is controlled by the unions, I can not believe that current union leadership reflects their membership, did it ever, if you can’t wrest control from one or the other nothing will change.YBarddCwsc said:Perhaps the Labour Party actually cannot be saved. A party that is split 60:40 or 70:30 into irreconcilable factions is too unstable to prosper. It is better for all that a ruthless victor brings the civil war to an end, one way or another.
“Earlier this year Tom Watson was the one holding moderates back in… there will be many… who will take the view that they have been abandoned" (Shuker)
For the point of view of the moderates, it does now look as though Gavin Shuker & Co were right and Tom Watson was wrong (and then, worst of all, he gave up!).
If 50 had defected to TIG rather than 10, then 2019 might have been very different.
Maybe after the the election of the leader, it may become obvious that the Labour party in its current manifestation cannot be saved.0 -
After some podcasts, some reading and some twitter looking up I have managed to pick up what happened and why. It has been picked over on here but I will make some notes.
We were all worried (on PB) about the spending plans, but to the poorer members of the public they didn't swallow it one bit really. I was listening to the Remainiacs podcasts (for the first time) and Alex Andreou called it really well, he said the vulnerable don't want revolution, as they are the first victims of it. They want slow change.
And Ben Bradley (Tory MP for Mansfield, which if you have ever been there is bonkers) did a long twitter thread on the subject with a lot of interesting thoughts. He said that a lot of people have forgotten about Thatcher and the miners, they want better lives now and not free broadband or cheap trains. They want housing and above all, good jobs.
Several articles in the newspapers also pointed out the language used by Corbyn and his supporters was an issue, not the attacks and so on but stuff like "imperialism" and "white supremacy". In the real world this stuff rarely comes up, most of us just rub along and whilst there is still racism in this country it is not couched in this overblwon language.
The Labour manifesto essentially was a shopping list of ideas that polled well, but collectively was fantasy. I kept rhetorically asking on here why Labour were not more popular, they were promising the earth and getting nowhere. Now we know.
1 -
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.0 -
Wow! A diatribe!Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
Aren't you too busy repatriating funds for all this? 1 -
Mandy receiving payments from some "interesting" sources, surely not.Sandpit said:
All good.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't like the slimey Mandelson, but he knows politics....
https://youtu.be/I3grOfZ7518
But who exactly was paying him how much to be in Doha this week?
What’s his view on Qatar’s sponsorship of the Iranian rebels waging war against the government in Yemen?1 -
He might win three or four as PM. Equally if circumstances including his own behaviour prevail against him, he will be a one term PM.Philip_Thompson said:
Boris won not one but two terms as Mayor of London.Mexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.0 -
The only thing he seems to be good at is fucking according to that list!😂Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.0 -
9bob.FrancisUrquhart said:
Mandy receiving payments from some "interesting" sources, surely not.Sandpit said:
All good.FrancisUrquhart said:I don't like the slimey Mandelson, but he knows politics....
https://youtu.be/I3grOfZ7518
But who exactly was paying him how much to be in Doha this week?
What’s his view on Qatar’s sponsorship of the Iranian rebels waging war against the government in Yemen?0 -
I have to say that I've never paid much attention to these potential successors to Corbyn but having seen Nandy on the telly last night for about 30 seconds she appeared to have the charisma of a wet dishcloth. Maybe that's just me though.0
-
Yes, Boris is now in the upper tier of Tory leaders having won a general election as PM with a big majority.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
If he delivers Brexit and a trade deal, sees off the SNP and is re elected again he will join Churchill and Thatcher at the very top tier of Tory leaders and icons of the last 100 years0 -
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.1 -
Rebecca Large-Baileys is a lifelong Man Utd supporter which is a major mark against her candidacy.3
-
Against corbyn, apart from May, anybody could have won a stonking majority! Well maybe not JRM.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.0 -
Indeed he might, certainly based on your rose-tinted analysis he may well win election after election.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
If I list the flip-side, Darius Guppy, sacked from The Telegraph and The Times, sacked by Michael Howard. Mrs Ratcliffe, quoting Kipling, Jennifer Arcuri to name but a few, he may well struggle.0 -
And winning elections and referendums. And doing exactly what he pleases and making the world go along with it.nichomar said:
The only thing he seems to be good at is fucking according to that list!😂Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
Quite heplful attributes in a politician
He is potentially the greatest PM since Thatcher.
The FT is already saying he is a new kind of Disraeli. I can see that. The same wiliness and mendacity, the same successful arrogance and braggodocio, the same literary flare and gift for theatre. Plus One Nation, of course
I would add a dash of Lloyd George, esp with the laydeez
1 -
He just increased his majority by 15000.HaroldO said:And Ben Bradley (Tory MP for Mansfield, which if you have ever been there is bonkers) did a long twitter thread on the subject with a lot of interesting thoughts. He said that a lot of people have forgotten about Thatcher and the miners, they want better lives now and not free broadband or cheap trains. They want housing and above all, good jobs.
Which suggests that it is not bonkers, but rather that electorates respond to attention rather than ideology when attention is paid to them.
1 -
Surely that’s the lay of the year?TheGreenMachine said:
Rebecca is now 5-4 is most bookies.Anabobazina said:Boris vs RLB
Blond on blonde0 -
Thanks good summary.HaroldO said:After some podcasts, some reading and some twitter looking up I have managed to pick up what happened and why. It has been picked over on here but I will make some notes.
We were all worried (on PB) about the spending plans, but to the poorer members of the public they didn't swallow it one bit really. I was listening to the Remainiacs podcasts (for the first time) and Alex Andreou called it really well, he said the vulnerable don't want revolution, as they are the first victims of it. They want slow change.
And Ben Bradley (Tory MP for Mansfield, which if you have ever been there is bonkers) did a long twitter thread on the subject with a lot of interesting thoughts. He said that a lot of people have forgotten about Thatcher and the miners, they want better lives now and not free broadband or cheap trains. They want housing and above all, good jobs.
Several articles in the newspapers also pointed out the language used by Corbyn and his supporters was an issue, not the attacks and so on but stuff like "imperialism" and "white supremacy". In the real world this stuff rarely comes up, most of us just rub along and whilst there is still racism in this country it is not couched in this overblwon language.
The Labour manifesto essentially was a shopping list of ideas that polled well, but collectively was fantasy. I kept rhetorically asking on here why Labour were not more popular, they were promising the earth and getting nowhere. Now we know.0 -
Don’t tell Johnson!Sandpit said:
Surely that’s the lay of the year?TheGreenMachine said:
Rebecca is now 5-4 is most bookies.Anabobazina said:Boris vs RLB
Blond on blonde0 -
All political careers end in failure. Wonder what will do for Boris and when. Arrogance is his weakness. A British Nixon perhaps.0
-
Let’s meet up in six months and see how it’s going to early tp write him off far to early to elevate him to sainthoodByronic said:
And winning elections and referendums. And doing exactly what he pleases and making the world go along with it.nichomar said:
The only thing he seems to be good at is fucking according to that list!😂Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
Quite heplful attributes in a politician
He is potentially the greatest PM since Thatcher.
The FT is already saying he is a new kind of Disraeli. I can see that. The same wiliness and mendacity, the same successful arrogance and braggodocio, the same literary flare and gift for theatre. Plus One Nation, of course
I would add a dash of Lloyd George, esp with the laydeez1 -
And plenty did see a path to it and said so repeatedly. It's a rewriting of history and very barmy to suggest no one thought there was a path to a majority. Even I said hed get one eventually, and others were far more bullish.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.0 -
I think you are misremembering. Many on here thought and think Boris is a twat. But he always was going to and indeed ended up facing Corbyn.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
And that meant he was always very likely to win. As would have any Cons leader.0 -
I hope its not bad form to say that her lisp might be an impediment.DayTripper said:I have to say that I've never paid much attention to these potential successors to Corbyn but having seen Nandy on the telly last night for about 30 seconds she appeared to have the charisma of a wet dishcloth. Maybe that's just me though.
0 -
Yes. I wouldn't have a blast at 5-4. It's at a lay price now, value ways.Sandpit said:
Surely that’s the lay of the year?TheGreenMachine said:
Rebecca is now 5-4 is most bookies.Anabobazina said:Boris vs RLB
Blond on blonde0 -
Translation: we're pissed the Tories won.Philip_Thompson said:
Its bulls**tFrancisUrquhart said:What a weird take....
The Electoral Reform Society, which campaigns for a fairer voting system, has released figures saying 14.5m voters are effectively “unrepresented” because they voted for a candidate who did not win.0 -
I was going to remark on the fact that Mansfield is an exemplar of how quickly the Labour vote can shrink once the Labour habit vote it broken (1K majority in 2017, 16K majority in 2019.) Except, of course, that this election has examples of seats that were Labour since the dawn of time suddenly transforming into Tory strongholds in one go (Bassetlaw being the most extreme instance.)MattW said:
He just increased his majority by 15000.HaroldO said:And Ben Bradley (Tory MP for Mansfield, which if you have ever been there is bonkers) did a long twitter thread on the subject with a lot of interesting thoughts. He said that a lot of people have forgotten about Thatcher and the miners, they want better lives now and not free broadband or cheap trains. They want housing and above all, good jobs.
Which suggests that it is not bonkers, but rather that electorates respond to attention rather than ideology when attention is paid to them.
What's happened to the Northern Leave seats - the sudden collapse of generational patterns of loyalty, the violent swings - feels not unlike the SNP landslide of 2015. No wonder that the Government shows encouraging signs of not taking its new voters for granted: if it can do right by them, they might never go back to Labour.1 -
They've done the sensible thing and used their vote to demand attention, and from what I can see the current Tory team and going to give that to them.MattW said:
He just increased his majority by 15000.HaroldO said:And Ben Bradley (Tory MP for Mansfield, which if you have ever been there is bonkers) did a long twitter thread on the subject with a lot of interesting thoughts. He said that a lot of people have forgotten about Thatcher and the miners, they want better lives now and not free broadband or cheap trains. They want housing and above all, good jobs.
Which suggests that it is not bonkers, but rather that electorates respond to attention rather than ideology when attention is paid to them.1 -
We should stop thinking about the next general election being in 2024. Pre-FTPA (which will be on the way out soon enough) governments confident they’d win tended to do four years. It was only ones that were not that did five. Thatcher 79-83, 83-87; Blair 1997-2001, 2001-2005. Thatcher/Major 87-92, Major 92-97; Blair/Brown 2005-2010.1
-
HYUFD said:
Adonis' continued willingness to overturn the referendum really wound me up, but can't see any problems with this. He has every right to advocate for rejoin, it's entirely legitimate.
Hell, if they go for an EFTA referendum I might even vote for that.1 -
I'm told here in Corbynland that hundreds of protestors have been arrested outside downing street but that you wont see that on the BBC. I've tentatively offered if that has happened the news couldn't avoid it if they wanted to. So have the protests happened? Genuine question.0
-
Unless something dramatic happens, he will be PM for ten years. Labour are in chinese finger trap of a puzzle and there is no one else.TOPPING said:
I think you are misremembering. Many on here thought and think Boris is a twat. But he always was going to and indeed ended up facing Corbyn.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
And that meant he was always very likely to win. As would have any Cons leader.0 -
I am not sure that is entirely true. In all fairness to HYUFD he was a lone voice when many on here thought Johnson would be an electoral disaster, and others thought if he won an election he would make a horlicks of government.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
Once the polls fell for Johnson a victory was likely, particularly against Corbyn. Beating Corbyn handsomely was the easy bit.1 -
A British Reagan more like, with the same optimism and broad appeal to most bar the left liberal elite.Jonathan said:All political careers end in failure. Wonder what will do for Boris and when. Arrogance is his weakness. A British Nixon perhaps.
Brown or Heath were our Nixon
0 -
Well there is plenty of time for the Horlicks did you know the center of a Maltesa is derived from horlicksMexicanpete said:
I am not sure that is entirely true. In all fairness to HYUFD he was a lone voice when many on here thought Johnson would be an electoral disaster, and others thought if he won an election he would make a horlicks of government.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
Once the polls fell for Johnson a victory was likely, particularly against Corbyn. Beating Corbyn handsomely was the easy bit.
?0 -
-
I assume others have commented below and I've missed it, but RLB below evens on Betfair is nuts. Very tempted to lay at that price, have taken profit on my Starmer lay without much indecision. Given the circumstances it makes no sense for any serious candidate to sit out the election, so she's likely to face at least one real challenger. It's not like Brown in 2008, she surely can't clear the field.1
-
To go Colbert:
Boris Johnson - Great PM or Greatest PM?
0 -
As we have seen from @NickPalmer the membership doesn't sound as if it's in the mood for a return to the centre. So yes.HaroldO said:
Unless something dramatic happens, he will be PM for ten years. Labour are in chinese finger trap of a puzzle and there is no one else.TOPPING said:
I think you are misremembering. Many on here thought and think Boris is a twat. But he always was going to and indeed ended up facing Corbyn.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional womeell known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
And that meant he was always very likely to win. As would have any Cons leader.0 -
Apart from Theresa May...TOPPING said:
I think you are misremembering. Many on here thought and think Boris is a twat. But he always was going to and indeed ended up facing Corbyn.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
And that meant he was always very likely to win. As would have any Cons leader.0 -
Exactly. Even Theresa May.numbertwelve said:
Apart from Theresa May...TOPPING said:
I think you are misremembering. Many on here thought and think Boris is a twat. But he always was going to and indeed ended up facing Corbyn.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
And that meant he was always very likely to win. As would have any Cons leader.0 -
Mark Steyn has gone rather cool on his 'old friend' Boris.
Whatever one feels about Boris Johnson (and almost any one who's had any truck with the man has, if he's honest, highly mixed views) today's election is a spectacular triumph for him. […] Both Scheer and Johnson are unprincipled opportunists, but the latter is a fighter who knows how to return the ball and swat it down the opposition's gullet. […] It would be nice to think that the Conservative Party might now think it safe to offer a bit of conservatism. But that would be too much to hope for...
https://www.steynonline.com/9913/boffo-boris0 -
Urbani servate uxores; moechum flavum adducimusnichomar said:
The only thing he seems to be good at is fucking according to that list!😂Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.0 -
That is a fair point.numbertwelve said:
Apart from Theresa May...TOPPING said:
I think you are misremembering. Many on here thought and think Boris is a twat. But he always was going to and indeed ended up facing Corbyn.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
And that meant he was always very likely to win. As would have any Cons leader.
I could be picky and note that she was derailed by the Corgasm which had exhausted itself by last week but yes she was not ruthless enough.0 -
Lay lady layAnabobazina said:Boris vs RLB
Blond on blonde0 -
Eww.Sandpit said:
Surely that’s the lay of the year?TheGreenMachine said:
Rebecca is now 5-4 is most bookies.Anabobazina said:Boris vs RLB
Blond on blonde0 -
No chance of being PM. Her past will catch up with her. CCHQ would be ruthless. She is a Corbynista.. thats enough to disqualify her in the eyes of the voters .Mexicanpete said:
I believe Long-Bailey is an ambitious pragmatist. Should she see the opportunity to become PM I am sure she will tack to the centre if that means she fulfills that ambition. Unlike Corbyn she is neither stubborn nor stupid.NickPalmer said:
I don't know enough about RLB to answer - what you say as a shadow Minister and what you want to do as leader can be subtly different. I'm keeping an open mind, though I won't support someone bent on fomenting civil war within the party (from either side). I do think we need to move on a generation, so won't be backing Ed or Yvette either. I'd like someone who is left-wing but pragmatic about achieving progress in steps rather than (implausibly) all at once.Omnium said:
You, NP, will gravitate a tad to the right?
You didn't answer the question of course at all though!
RLB - what actually might she stand for?0 -
Wasnt Churchill.sacked numerous times in his career..Mexicanpete said:
Indeed he might, certainly based on your rose-tinted analysis he may well win election after election.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
If I list the flip-side, Darius Guppy, sacked from The Telegraph and The Times, sacked by Michael Howard. Mrs Ratcliffe, quoting Kipling, Jennifer Arcuri to name but a few, he may well struggle.
He was also involved in a major bootlegging operation/company with Joe Kennedy.
Not sure abt his shagging prowess but that seemed to be replaced by his drinking one.0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
The SWP were running around central London with placards on Friday night, being annoying and making work for The Met, which I saw via journalists on Twitter.kle4 said:I'm told here in Corbynland that hundreds of protestors have been arrested outside downing street but that you wont see that on the BBC. I've tentatively offered if that has happened the news couldn't avoid it if they wanted to. So have the protests happened? Genuine question.
1 -
2017 electionEndillion said:
Exactly. Even Theresa May.numbertwelve said:
Apart from Theresa May...TOPPING said:
I think you are misremembering. Many on here thought and think Boris is a twat. But he always was going to and indeed ended up facing Corbyn.Byronic said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!kle4 said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Byronic said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateMexicanpete said:
Hodges as usual is talking utter rubbish. IF Boris is fantastically successful, IF the economy does not bomb and IF Brexit- is a rip-roaring success Boris is here for decades irrespective of who is Labour leader.HYUFD said:
You will notice a lot of IFS in the above paragraph. IF, sooner rather than later any or all of the above go horribly wrong, we more likely than not get a Labour government sooner rather than later.
The ball is Boris' to drop. Based on my understanding of his past careers, he will drop the ball.
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
And that meant he was always very likely to win. As would have any Cons leader.
Con 318 42.4%
Lab 262 40%0 -
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We have little left as you have already stolen all our money.Malmesbury said:
I'm sure the money could be lent on easy terms. Perhaps to invest in Central American port facilities, as well?DavidL said:
Not sure we have the money. But an interesting idea.alex_ said:
Perhaps we could sell Scotland to the Scots in a leveraged buyout. Think outside the box.DavidL said:
Well let’s eliminate the trade deficit then. Not hard. Cut consumption by 10% or so, increase the savings ratio by another 20%. Accept a fairly serious increase in unemployment, maybe a million or so. Or keep selling our assets to pay for the crap. London housing is probably the least harmful of what we have to sell.noneoftheabove said:
Foreign oligarchs, launderers and speculators making London their playground doesnt benefit the UK, nor Londoners.HYUFD said:
No, the North as well as the South, if London renters want to buy a property so badly they can move out of the capital where it is cheaper especially as rail links and broadband improvesnoneoftheabove said:
So one nation conservatism is now about representing Tory voters only?HYUFD said:
Most of the London renters voted Labour anyway, most Stoke Tory voters already own a propertynoneoftheabove said:
In what way does that help the people of London who are mostly renting and hoping for prices to come back to wages?nichomar said:
In what way does hat help people in Stoke?HYUFD said:A surge of London property deals gave been completed after Corbyn was defeated.
In 1 case a 6 bed Belgravia penthouse was sold for £65 million to a Hong Kong businessman hours after the Tory majority was confirmed
https://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/london-property-boris-johnson-election-win-property-deals-worth-mega-millions-a135466.html0 -
Valid thing to say. People are shallow, sadly. But I don't even notice it any more, and it hadn't occurred to me that it might be an issue.squareroot2 said:
I hope its not bad form to say that her lisp might be an impediment.DayTripper said:I have to say that I've never paid much attention to these potential successors to Corbyn but having seen Nandy on the telly last night for about 30 seconds she appeared to have the charisma of a wet dishcloth. Maybe that's just me though.
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Though Boris won and Scheer lost and has just resignedStark_Dawning said:Mark Steyn has gone rather cool on his 'old friend' Boris.
Whatever one feels about Boris Johnson (and almost any one who's had any truck with the man has, if he's honest, highly mixed views) today's election is a spectacular triumph for him. […] Both Scheer and Johnson are unprincipled opportunists, but the latter is a fighter who knows how to return the ball and swat it down the opposition's gullet. […] It would be nice to think that the Conservative Party might now think it safe to offer a bit of conservatism. But that would be too much to hope for...
https://www.steynonline.com/9913/boffo-boris0 -
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Mexicanpete said:
The tricky bit will be the “not making a Horlicks of government”. Which to my mind is all about (1) keeping his new chums in the north happy. Contrary to southern opinion, people in Durham can count the number of new hospitals built, especially if it’s fewer than forty and they’re all in Surrey (2) limiting Dominic Cummings’ contact with the levers of government. He’s the sort of bull Boris needs on speed dial for ideas how to run a china shop, not in there as store manager. He has Eddie Lister and others for day-to-day management. Let DC out of the box again 12 months before the next election.Byronic said:
I am not sure that is entirely true. In all fairness to HYUFD he was a lone voice when many on here thought Johnson would be an electoral disaster, and others thought if he won an election he would make a horlicks of government.kle4 said:
This is a total rewriting of history. PLENTY on here (and in the Tory party) could see no easy route, if any, to an overall majority, let alone one of 80!Byronic said:
I dont think everyone said the election was unwinnable. In fact plenty thought he could only win it pre Brexit and therefore this election was well set up for him.Mexicanpete said:
Quick fact check on Boris Johnson's career to dateHYUFD said:
Was an Eton scholar
Bedded the most beautiful girls in Oxford
Became, as a very young man, a household name as a journalist
Became one of the most successful editors in the history of the Spectator
Continued to swive exceptional women
Decided to try for London mayoralty, when everyone laughed at him
WON the London mayoralty, in a Labour city
People stopped laughing so much
WON the London mayoralty, again
Became probably the most well known UK politician abroad
Went back into Westminster
Banged some more stunners
Decided to back the Leave Campaign, this quite possibly tipping it from defeat to victory (Cameron thinks so, in his memoirs)
Was appointed Foreign Secretary
Won the leadership of the Tory party and became PM
Decided to gamble on an election everyone said was unwinnable, with "no route to majority"
Has now just won that election with the biggest Tory majority since 1987.
When you look at it that way, Boris' record is incredible. He is a very very lucky general, but it's also becoming apparent that he a fucking GOOD general
I wouldn't put it past him to land a very sweet Brexit deal, see off the Scot Nats, and romp home to a further massive victory in 2024. Indeed it is quite likely.
Once the polls fell for Johnson a victory was likely, particularly against Corbyn. Beating Corbyn handsomely was the easy bit.0 -
There's quite a variation in the Conservative Northern gains.Black_Rook said:
I was going to remark on the fact that Mansfield is an exemplar of how quickly the Labour vote can shrink once the Labour habit vote it broken (1K majority in 2017, 16K majority in 2019.) Except, of course, that this election has examples of seats that were Labour since the dawn of time suddenly transforming into Tory strongholds in one go (Bassetlaw being the most extreme instance.)MattW said:
He just increased his majority by 15000.HaroldO said:And Ben Bradley (Tory MP for Mansfield, which if you have ever been there is bonkers) did a long twitter thread on the subject with a lot of interesting thoughts. He said that a lot of people have forgotten about Thatcher and the miners, they want better lives now and not free broadband or cheap trains. They want housing and above all, good jobs.
Which suggests that it is not bonkers, but rather that electorates respond to attention rather than ideology when attention is paid to them.
What's happened to the Northern Leave seats - the sudden collapse of generational patterns of loyalty, the violent swings - feels not unlike the SNP landslide of 2015. No wonder that the Government shows encouraging signs of not taking its new voters for granted: if it can do right by them, they might never go back to Labour.
There are traditional marginals which are still traditional marginals - the Burys, Bolton NE, Keighley, Colne Valley, High Peak.
There is the 'Conservative mining belt' - Ashfield, Bassetlaw, Bolsover, Penistone, Don and Rother Valleys - which I can see becoming safe Conservative seats as the likes of Sherwood and Cannock to their south have done.
There are the Tees Valley, Blyth Valley and Cumbria constituencies which might be similar to the Conservative mining belt.
And there are more individual seats with more local issues - Redcar, Burnley, Grimsby for example.0
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