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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A LAB leadership election without Starmer on the ballot would
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A LAB leadership election without Starmer on the ballot would appear very odd
From our Times Labour party members poll in July. Proportion who think x would hake a good leader of the Labour party:Keir Starmer – 68%John McDonnell – 64% Emily Thornberry – 59%Angela Rayner – 41%Tom Watson – 37% ?RLB – 34%Jess Phillips – 33% Laura Pidcock – 31% ?
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OGH describes Corbyn's election campaign as "disastrous". I'm not sure that the campaign itself was - Labour ended roughly where it began. It was certainly no triumph, but as many posters have argued, when you can't really take a position on the key issue of the day, and when a key section of the electorate loathes you, the campaign needs to be amazing to stave off a dismal result. It was Corbyn's leadership this year that has been disastrous, rather than the campaign he ran.
They’re doomed.
Not sure how much his popularity with members is simply a by product of them not wanting Brexit to happen. Once it does happen does his popularity shrink?
And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
They'd have sacrificed ground in London but retilting the lost votes away from the northern heartlands would have lead to a better result.
I think that the English WWC will be the key swing demographic going ahead in the UK. But of course it's just a guess - you could be right.
It was a window moved by parliament and the Labour party membership, not shared by the country at large.
The Labour manifesto was close to disastrous, in that it contained so many giveaways that it undermined any good that it might have done. The commentary on last night’s R4 Westminster Hour is well worth listening to here.
The LibDem campaign, on the other hand, was disastrous, undermining the relatively strong position in which they started the election, and containing one tactical misjudgment after another.
I suspect Flint's intervention was calculated on the assumption that Thornbury was the more wily and thus more dangerous between her and Starmer..
Corbyn has undone a lot of that work so anyone wishing to lead Labour into power has a longer journey than was the case back in 2015..
Quite bored of politics, too, TBH.
Boris in in power for the next seven billion years. The drama has gone. All we have left is aftershocks, and this minor party leadership gossip.
Time for us all to take a very deep breath and maybe a very long break.
In his memoirs - the best ever written imho - Nigel Lawson says that in the vast majority of election campaigns, most people have made their minds up before the start, and wait more or less patiently for election day. I think that's right - 2017 being the obvious exception in recent times.
I think that might be a little too much drama for the rest of us though...
But now it is drawing to a close. You can sense it. The energy drains away. Other dramas - America, China - return to centre stage.
And personally I welcome the chance to stretch out and think Who Cares, for a while at least. Zzzz....
You must be even more bored of RL stuff to think it was worth logging on to share that with us.
Apologies if I'm mistaken though.
I'm unclear whether John McDonnell is still Shadow Chancellor now or not If not, who will act as interim Shadow Chancellor?
Labour took 28 seats from Con in 2017.
In those, 24 had below average drop in Labour vote and only 4 higher.
Average drop in all 28 was 4.3% compared to 7.9% nationally.
Managed to retain 14 of the 28 seats even though Lab to Con swing in 2019 was bigger than Con to Lab in 2017 nationally.
Conclusion is that 1st time incumbency is alive and well.
All other things being equal, should make it pretty tough for Labour to claw back all the 50 seats they lost to Con last week. Especially if the new MP's concentrate on their constituencies for the next 4½ years.
Or, the new Blair could be around the corner and they'll win them all and many more...…………….
It settled at 11.
I know their votes increased but so did UKIP in 2015 with little to show for it and I recall many Lib Dem types on here saying that UKIPers shouldn't moan because that's just the system. What do I see all over SM now..yes the LDs moaning about the unfair voting system.
I also think the LDs are going to get heavily investigated into their election spending. Peoples heads could roll.
There’s a whole new chapter ripe for addition to the excellent “The Conservatives” by Robert Harris. As I recall that left off before 2015 so there’s much material in analysing how the party has become more popular, and reinvented itself, in Government.
The context is intriguing because this isn’t the first time the Tory Party has fallen out over trade and reinvented itself. It’s happened at least twice before.
Normally it’s rare for any MP to get elected for the first time by gaining a marginal seat without pretty good backup, that organisation then enabling them - if they give it due attention - to do the between-election spadework needed to get that incumbency vote. But I’d be a little surprised if the Tory organisation in Wakefield and the rest is particularly strong, but others might actually know?
Do they not realize they are again signally oi Fred, Fred, yes you, you are as thick as shit because you have been conned by the media AGAIN.
The bar one, was again Lisa Nandy. She was on R5 and was very impressive. Gave clear reasons why she thought Labour lost and even when given the opportunity to blast the media, I think she made a valid point that it is still far too London-centric and because of that miss so much of what is going on elsewhere in the country.
I suspect Teesside is going to do very well out if Government investment in the next 5 years.
I mean, the number of times I have spoken to Corbynites over the last few years ending by saying, ‘But he’ll never win an election’. They invariably responded: ‘So what? We’re not going to win it anyway’. They really mean it. Because one day, ten or twenty years down the line, they think they will.
Why should Labour ever ditch FPTP ?
There are many LibDems who are willing to vote Labour for nothing in return.
Thanks.
They generally claim that things have changed so much for the worse over the last decade, always using 2010 as the point for comparison. And then in the same breath almost they go on to denigrate Blair, Brown and New Labour, having just by implication praised their achievements.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1206583933737078785?s=20
I suspect that one of the non-London women will be the best candidate, which one I don't know. The key thing is that the Left accept that the public won't vote for a full on Socialist manifesto, and accept that the party needs to come to its policy positions via weight of argument not weight of numbers.
I don't think Labour had a bad election campaign. We had an unpopular leader, a too extreme manifesto and faced an impossible choice on Brexit. The media were a factor but there's no point harping on about it, better to figure out how Blair era Labour was able to neutralise it.
I actually think Labour can win the next election, as long as we put our house in order. If the government screw things up - especially on Brexit where they are taking huge risks with the economy - then Labour can win in 2024.
As for absorbing the Green Party, he means a) go even further left and b) make Climate Change become the over-arching issue behind everything. Good luck getting Grismby man on-board if every policy is based on listening to XR.
Now I'm not convinced on Starmer because I haven't really seen much from him yet. The lack of charisma is not much of an issue, we have 5 years before an election, and Boris already has the charisma contest won. You can win without charisma (Hollande Mr Normal vs Sarkozy in France for example).
I may join some supporter system to vote for next leader. If he stands it should be Dan Jarvis. He would really help wipe the slate clean with all that was toxic about Corbyn. He's like the anti Corbyn. Sure he's a bit wooden but again, Labour doesn't need a huge charismatic personality right now, there's no campaign. They need to gain back trust of voters.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/15/ninety-peers-call-baroness-tonge-issue-unqualified-apology-blaming
Lest we forget Labour leadership elections are conducted under the alternative vote system, which is the finest voting system known to anyone woman born.
Expect regular AV threads between now and the result.
It has been waggling about wildly over the last 24 hours.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj-YK3JJCIU
Love Actually?
What happened after that was a combination of things largely beyond Labour's control (worldwide financial crash - we could have been better prepared, but we did not stand out as being excessively badly hit compared to other nations) and the Conservatives choosing a reasonably telegenic and moderate leader who got them a second hearing with people who wouldn't have voted for Howard or IDS.
Much the same in 1997 (though Blair was particularly good at appealing beyond Labour's base and some Tory wounds, particularly the infighting on Europe, were self-inflicted). We'll have another big recession. It will likely be tied (rightly or wrongly) to Brexit. If Labour have chosen someone halfway competent then they'll have a good chance. Of course, neither, or at least only one of those things, may have happened by the next election.
Well that film has more snow in it than Die Hard.
Die Hard is not a Christmas film, think about it, the lead character sneaks around at night in tower hiding from Alan Rickman, Die Hard is a Harry Potter film.
Must be ripe for a Tory bounce back post Brexit (Only 5k away now). Probably the worst result of the night for the Lib Dems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
The GB shares are Con 44.7% Lab 32.9% LD 11.8%, 4.0% SNP, 2.8% Green, 2.1% BXP at a GB level.
Opinium got their final poll spot on. 45% Con, 33% Lab, 12% LD