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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebecca Long-Bailey soars to a 32% chance in the Corbyn succes

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  • novanova Posts: 525

    nova said:

    nova said:

    Fenster said:

    This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.

    People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.

    The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
    Not sure that's the case.

    Brexit being done is clearly not going to make a huge difference to most people's lives, and most analysts have said that the Tory manifesto "bakes in" austerity.

    So, in five years time the Tories will be 15 years in power, and very little of that time will have felt positive. Brexit related voting could unwind very quickly once it's no longer on the "to do" list.
    The "bakes in" austerity comment was bull using a false baseline for comparison. They said that austerity would be baked in not by comparing spending over the next five years to spending now, but spending over the next five years to spending in 2010.

    In 2010 the government was overspending! It is not a reasonable baseline to compare to. Yes there has been austerity in many departments other than the NHS over the past decade but that was necessary due to the overspending in 2010. If austerity is indeed over then that means that spending will start to rise from now - not that we will suddenly be overspending like we were a decade ago that left the country on the brink of ruin.

    Over the next few years so long as the country doesn't enter recession the government can increase spending in moderation without jeopardising the books - but it can't undo the past decades austerity returning in one bound to overspending and making the past decades austerity pointless.
    I disagree with your economics, but that's irrelevant to the point, and we'll just get into politics if we go down that route.

    My point is that after 10 years of austerity, will five years of "moderation" be enough?

    That's the challenge.
    It has to be enough. It's what the country can afford.

    The past austerity has already happened so moderation from here will be an increase. Moderation after 2010 would have felt like austerity. As it's all about expectations.

    There's an old expression that goes along the lines of: Income £1000, expenses £999, result happiness. Income £1000, expenses £1001, result misery. Small changes can make a big difference.
    Not sure Micawberism would be a popular election strategy ;)
  • Runners and riders update:

    Leader: Clive Lewis
    DL: Barry Gardiner. Yes, really.
  • If Rebecca Long-Bailey is elected the new Labour leader, Boris Johnson will think all his Christmases have come at once, especially if Richard Burgon is elected as her deputy. The film title "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind.

    It's official. The Back Burgon campaign has been suspended. I am devastated. All hope now rests with him running for deputy on a joint ticket with BackBailey# . Together they can get the result they both deserve.

    https://twitter.com/BackBurgon
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    If Rebecca Long-Bailey is elected the new Labour leader, Boris Johnson will think all his Christmases have come at once, especially if Richard Burgon is elected as her deputy. The film title "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind.

    A week ago most of the media was trying to explain why the polls were incorrect and Boris would be lucky to get a minority government. Today Swinson has gone, Corbyn is going and in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and Sinn Fein are coming under increasing pressure to re-establish Stormont because if the Sec of St for NI imposes new elections, both parties could be HUGE losers. I hadn't realised that SF had lost 25% of its vote share on Thursday.

    We should probably stop triumphantly dismissing RLB (and others) before she's even taken office. After all, she's almost certainly technically better than Corbyn in most ways that matter, and it isn't as though he was seen off easily without any issues. Plus she (or whoever) will have five years to grow into the role before facing the electorate, by which time any early missteps will have been long forgotten.

    I can see RLB being quite tricky for Johnson to have to face every week at PMQs, at least in part because she's so unremittingly annoying. Burgon, on the other hand, is clearly a gift from the Gods.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564

    Banterman said:

    If Rebecca Long-Bailey is elected the new Labour leader, Boris Johnson will think all his Christmases have come at once, especially if Richard Burgon is elected as her deputy. The film title "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind.

    A week ago most of the media was trying to explain why the polls were incorrect and Boris would be lucky to get a minority government. Today Swinson has gone, Corbyn is going and in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and Sinn Fein are coming under increasing pressure to re-establish Stormont because if the Sec of St for NI imposes new elections, both parties could be HUGE losers. I hadn't realised that SF had lost 25% of its vote share on Thursday.

    What they need is a sensible grey hair like Michael Howard to be leader for a few years, to put them back on the right track.

    The reality is all the sensible ones will thought of as Tory traitors by the Momentum/SWP/RCP infiltration gang that now control Labour.
    At least they'd get it over with at the start, unlike the BJ party who 22 years after he left the crease now consider sensible grey haired Johnny Major a traitor.
    Thats a silly comparison. While Majors repudiation is poor for the Tories after 22 years of course some even senior figures are going to be quite far apart from current leadership and memberships. Unchanging support decade after decade is bonkers in times of change.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    IDK, RLB doesn't seem that bad on the face of it, YMMV.
  • nunu2 said:

    The truth is I can't see anyone in Labour beating Boris. Everyone keeps underestimating Boris, and even after they were completely wrong on the result (expecting it to be close) they still think Boris is rubbish. He isn't. He is highly intelligent is able to win his audience over whether it be for London or Labour working class voters. My first piece of advice to Labour is to stop underestimating him and his support. Do that and you *might* just might have a chance.

    The media made a similar mistake in 2008 when he was running against Ken. Remember the shrill letter from the Guardian about Boris not being London?

    He does provoke somewhat visceral hatred on the left, perhaps of a type not seen since Thatcher. To that end he is always seen through a negative prism by those who despise him, whereby every single action is criticised and seen through the lens of his supposed wickedness and uselessness, when other politicians would have done exactly the same and they would have cared not a jot. (Dont get me wrong, I’m not saying that Boris hasn’t done anything inflammatory and wrong in the past, I’m just saying that he is uniquely criticised for all and sundry as a result).
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2019
    This is why RLB is likely to win. They don't care about the people, or winning, just control of the party.
    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1206526343380373504
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,833

    nunu2 said:

    The truth is I can't see anyone in Labour beating Boris. Everyone keeps underestimating Boris, and even after they were completely wrong on the result (expecting it to be close) they still think Boris is rubbish. He isn't. He is highly intelligent is able to win his audience over whether it be for London or Labour working class voters. My first piece of advice to Labour is to stop underestimating him and his support. Do that and you *might* just might have a chance.

    The media made a similar mistake in 2008 when he was running against Ken. Remember the shrill letter from the Guardian about Boris not being London?

    He does provoke somewhat visceral hatred on the left, perhaps of a type not seen since Thatcher. To that end he is always seen through a negative prism by those who despise him, whereby every single action is criticised and seen through the lens of his supposed wickedness and uselessness, when other politicians would have done exactly the same and they would have cared not a jot. (Dont get me wrong, I’m not saying that Boris hasn’t done anything inflammatory and wrong in the past, I’m just saying that he is uniquely criticised for all and sundry as a result).
    The US media and Democrats are the same with Trump. No matter what he does, they'll find a way to say it's awful.

    They're going to completely lose their minds if he wins again next year - although many would say they've mostly lost their minds already.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,954
    nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    The SNP will just bank that and continue demanding a referendum.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,893

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    Get it over with, though. There's at least 4 years before the next election
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    RobD said:

    nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    The SNP will just bank that and continue demanding a referendum.
    Yes, but it saves the rest of us a lot of money in the interim.
  • kle4 said:

    Banterman said:

    If Rebecca Long-Bailey is elected the new Labour leader, Boris Johnson will think all his Christmases have come at once, especially if Richard Burgon is elected as her deputy. The film title "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind.

    A week ago most of the media was trying to explain why the polls were incorrect and Boris would be lucky to get a minority government. Today Swinson has gone, Corbyn is going and in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and Sinn Fein are coming under increasing pressure to re-establish Stormont because if the Sec of St for NI imposes new elections, both parties could be HUGE losers. I hadn't realised that SF had lost 25% of its vote share on Thursday.

    What they need is a sensible grey hair like Michael Howard to be leader for a few years, to put them back on the right track.

    The reality is all the sensible ones will thought of as Tory traitors by the Momentum/SWP/RCP infiltration gang that now control Labour.
    At least they'd get it over with at the start, unlike the BJ party who 22 years after he left the crease now consider sensible grey haired Johnny Major a traitor.
    Thats a silly comparison. While Majors repudiation is poor for the Tories after 22 years of course some even senior figures are going to be quite far apart from current leadership and memberships. Unchanging support decade after decade is bonkers in times of change.
    I don't think it's silly if one's comparing the intemperate responses, which I'm doing. I believe there were even several fulminations involving 'betrayal' and 'traitor' against Major on here.
  • kle4 said:

    IDK, RLB doesn't seem that bad on the face of it, YMMV.

    She is the one chosen by McDonnell to succeed Corbyn and as such has been kept glued to Corbyn's side for the past year at every media event. What more do you need to know?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,922

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    Get it over with, though. There's at least 4 years before the next election
    Hopefully it will bankrupt both of them so they can no-longer stay in Parliament.
  • RobD said:

    I’m not sure about this new intake of Tory MPs, some of them are obsessed with social media, they really should get some work done.

    https://twitter.com/aaronbell4nul/status/1206483410274988033?s=21

    Someone should tell him that Parliament is on the other side of the river. :p
    And that he's not in either of the Newcastles.
    Pictured on the steps of County Hall, looks like he's been elected to the GLC.
  • Has anyone mentioned that Yvette Cooper is 3rd favourite to be next LD leader, and shorter price than to be next Lab leader?
  • Has Chris Williamson made a pitch for the deputy leader gig yet?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,833

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    That says to me that Thornberry is running - she wants to get Flint to back down from her statement yesterday. It would be useful at this point to know who was the person who spoke to both women.
  • RobD said:

    I’m not sure about this new intake of Tory MPs, some of them are obsessed with social media, they really should get some work done.

    https://twitter.com/aaronbell4nul/status/1206483410274988033?s=21

    Someone should tell him that Parliament is on the other side of the river. :p
    And that he's not in either of the Newcastles.
    Pictured on the steps of County Hall, looks like he's been elected to the GLC.
    Did the cab driver see him coming? How did he get to the South Bank from NUL?
  • nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    I'm sure we were told that's what we'd probably be getting after 18/09/14. What went wrong?

    The Tory's default position (even more entrenched now) is to deny Holyrood the appearance and appurtenances of a proper national government as much as possible. I think the Scots who are Tories (Gove) and Tories in Scotland are psychologically incapable of accepting something like that even if it was the smart move.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    My first post? Not really, the vagaries of the site’s administration required me to login under my old persona (ReggieCide) and conspired to prevent me doing so, hence this new persona. Whether the problem with ReggieCide was deliberate or incompetence we shall see, since I have come clean.

    If it was deliberate then this will be my first and last post, in which case I offer this in farewell

    https://youtu.be/Y5YW4qKOAVM


  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,561
    nunu2 said:
    Yorkshire Party break through the all important 1% barrier.

    Independence is only a step away...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,561

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What to do from here ?


    Cash out and go to the pub? I think @iasm could do with a beer.
    I'm trying to work out what activity might result in an iasm..
    Ask the people who queue overnight to buy a new Apple phone.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564

    kle4 said:

    IDK, RLB doesn't seem that bad on the face of it, YMMV.

    She is the one chosen by McDonnell to succeed Corbyn and as such has been kept glued to Corbyn's side for the past year at every media event. What more do you need to know?
    Yes, that bodes Ill, but I was speaking on terms of her performances and how she comes across. I'm not wowed, but I'm not the the target audience, but she isn't immediately off putting.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    Has anyone mentioned that Yvette Cooper is 3rd favourite to be next LD leader, and shorter price than to be next Lab leader?

    Does that make her a hell of a lay?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    I've not heard anything quite that far, but Ive seen people say similar in person.
  • Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    Are those 'interventions' from a certain country in the middle east?
  • Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
  • José Mourinho is going to win this season's Champions League isn’t he?
  • Sandpit said:

    nunu2 said:

    The truth is I can't see anyone in Labour beating Boris. Everyone keeps underestimating Boris, and even after they were completely wrong on the result (expecting it to be close) they still think Boris is rubbish. He isn't. He is highly intelligent is able to win his audience over whether it be for London or Labour working class voters. My first piece of advice to Labour is to stop underestimating him and his support. Do that and you *might* just might have a chance.

    The media made a similar mistake in 2008 when he was running against Ken. Remember the shrill letter from the Guardian about Boris not being London?

    He does provoke somewhat visceral hatred on the left, perhaps of a type not seen since Thatcher. To that end he is always seen through a negative prism by those who despise him, whereby every single action is criticised and seen through the lens of his supposed wickedness and uselessness, when other politicians would have done exactly the same and they would have cared not a jot. (Dont get me wrong, I’m not saying that Boris hasn’t done anything inflammatory and wrong in the past, I’m just saying that he is uniquely criticised for all and sundry as a result).
    The US media and Democrats are the same with Trump. No matter what he does, they'll find a way to say it's awful.

    They're going to completely lose their minds if he wins again next year - although many would say they've mostly lost their minds already.
    Trump and Boris are hugely charismatic figures and it might not be coincidence they became known on television before seeking high office.

    But both Trump and Boris have upended convention on things like honesty, transparency, and in Trump's case, corruption. I do not know that this is desirable, and still less how to stuff the genie back into the bottle, especially while they are defended and acclaimed by mainstream Republican or Conservative legislators who are prepared to overlook misdemeanours at least as long as their leaders deliver the electoral goods.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Sandpit said:

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    That says to me that Thornberry is running - she wants to get Flint to back down from her statement yesterday. It would be useful at this point to know who was the person who spoke to both women.
    While Twitter is not Britain, it is packed with party robots, and the responses under Thornberrys rebuttal were essentially 'I believe caroline' and 'it's the sort of thing you believe even if you didnt say it'. She will hope the latter feeling does not take hold, but as I noted yesterday she seems disliked by many corbynites and what used to be called labour moderates. I think her chances are low despite being talented.
  • nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    I'm sure we were told that's what we'd probably be getting after 18/09/14. What went wrong?

    The Tory's default position (even more entrenched now) is to deny Holyrood the appearance and appurtenances of a proper national government as much as possible. I think the Scots who are Tories (Gove) and Tories in Scotland are psychologically incapable of accepting something like that even if it was the smart move.
    There is another route of course: to declare that "devolution has failed" because a) it's never enough to satisfy those wanting independence, and b) every time you give a bit more devolution, it encourages those...wanting more independence.

    So - once Brexit is "done", expect a bold move to grab back more powers (or at least threaten this) - but probably to move more MOG stuff to the regions to compensate.

    Easy to frame devolution as another Blair-era Labour mistake, like all that NHS privatisation they did...
  • nunu2 said:
    Yorkshire Party break through the all important 1% barrier.

    Independence is only a step away...
    To be accurate, regional government.

    Had they been on the ballot in the West Midlands, I would have voted for them. Social democratic, accepting of Brexit, promoting real regional devolution, what's not to like?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    Are those 'interventions' from a certain country in the middle east?
    Might be. Couldn't possibly speculate...
  • alterego said:

    Has anyone mentioned that Yvette Cooper is 3rd favourite to be next LD leader, and shorter price than to be next Lab leader?

    Does that make her a hell of a lay?
    Ah.. I think Oddschecker has messed up here https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-liberal-democrat-leader

    They seem to have confused Daisy and Yvette!
  • precious, is the word.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    So, is the Labour party primarily interested in holding the government to account and looking like a government-in-waiting, or do they still care much more about their internal factionalism?

    As others have said, Starmer is the candidate who would most scare the government. Which probably means he has no chance at all.

    I disagree.

    When you look at the voting blocs they have all Starmer offers is the anti-Brexit group in a charisma free setting with Corbyn’s baggage

    I don’t see how he is more appealing to members or voters than Yvette Cooper

    Until the moderates develop a compelling programme for government and sell it effectively there is nothing there to scare the Tories.

    I don’t know what RLB thinks about Brexit. And it doesn’t matter - by 2024 that will be in the rearview mirror *as far as the electorate is concerned*. Labour needs someone who can appeal to the young, ideological lefties, northerners and without Corbyn or Brexit baggage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    Also, I think some of the replies are not serious but it's so hard to tell given some that clearly are. Terrifying. And it all comes down to ' I dont like it so how can it have happened?'. These are adult humans saying these things!
  • Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
  • alterego said:

    Has anyone mentioned that Yvette Cooper is 3rd favourite to be next LD leader, and shorter price than to be next Lab leader?

    Does that make her a hell of a lay?
    you need to ask Ed Balls
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.

    Is he a hobbit now?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    Also, I think some of the replies are not serious but it's so hard to tell given some that clearly are. Terrifying. And it all comes down to ' I dont like it so how can it have happened?'. These are adult humans saying these things!
    Always good to remember that Twitter is not Britain, and that these few people live their lives in an echo-chamber of angry righteousness.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,561

    nunu2 said:
    Yorkshire Party break through the all important 1% barrier.

    Independence is only a step away...
    To be accurate, regional government.

    Had they been on the ballot in the West Midlands, I would have voted for them. Social democratic, accepting of Brexit, promoting real regional devolution, what's not to like?
    I might be at risk of deportation. Also, not supporting Yorkshire CCC might carry an indeterminate prison sentence.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    Sandpit said:

    nunu2 said:

    The truth is I can't see anyone in Labour beating Boris. Everyone keeps underestimating Boris, and even after they were completely wrong on the result (expecting it to be close) they still think Boris is rubbish. He isn't. He is highly intelligent is able to win his audience over whether it be for London or Labour working class voters. My first piece of advice to Labour is to stop underestimating him and his support. Do that and you *might* just might have a chance.

    The media made a similar mistake in 2008 when he was running against Ken. Remember the shrill letter from the Guardian about Boris not being London?

    He does provoke somewhat visceral hatred on the left, perhaps of a type not seen since Thatcher. To that end he is always seen through a negative prism by those who despise him, whereby every single action is criticised and seen through the lens of his supposed wickedness and uselessness, when other politicians would have done exactly the same and they would have cared not a jot. (Dont get me wrong, I’m not saying that Boris hasn’t done anything inflammatory and wrong in the past, I’m just saying that he is uniquely criticised for all and sundry as a result).
    The US media and Democrats are the same with Trump. No matter what he does, they'll find a way to say it's awful.

    They're going to completely lose their minds if he wins again next year - although many would say they've mostly lost their minds already.
    Trump and Boris are hugely charismatic figures and it might not be coincidence they became known on television before seeking high office.

    But both Trump and Boris have upended convention on things like honesty, transparency, and in Trump's case, corruption. I do not know that this is desirable, and still less how to stuff the genie back into the bottle, especially while they are defended and acclaimed by mainstream Republican or Conservative legislators who are prepared to overlook misdemeanours at least as long as their leaders deliver the electoral goods.

    Neither is groundbreaking in terms of possessing some unattractive traits, political or in general.
  • José Mourinho is going to win this season's Champions League isn’t he?

    If he does, then judging from yesterday it will be on the back of matches in which his team are overrun in midfield yet somehow sneak a win totally against the run of play throughout.

    I'm not basing that on the same analysis on MOTD last night. I was there for the 94 minutes. Wolves best home performance of the season.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
    Thornberry has form for dismissing others as idiots. Remember when she lost her shadow cabinet position because of her superior attitude.

    The optics of a very wealthy MP who is married to a senior judge using the courts against a newly unemployed former colleague are horrendous
  • nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    I'm sure we were told that's what we'd probably be getting after 18/09/14. What went wrong?

    The Tory's default position (even more entrenched now) is to deny Holyrood the appearance and appurtenances of a proper national government as much as possible. I think the Scots who are Tories (Gove) and Tories in Scotland are psychologically incapable of accepting something like that even if it was the smart move.
    There is another route of course: to declare that "devolution has failed" because a) it's never enough to satisfy those wanting independence, and b) every time you give a bit more devolution, it encourages those...wanting more independence.

    So - once Brexit is "done", expect a bold move to grab back more powers (or at least threaten this) - but probably to move more MOG stuff to the regions to compensate.

    Easy to frame devolution as another Blair-era Labour mistake, like all that NHS privatisation they did...
    Not saying it might not be attempted, but if there's one way to make the Scots fall in love with devolution...

    Plenty of tin eared idiots who'd love to do something like that I'm sure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Anorak said:

    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    Also, I think some of the replies are not serious but it's so hard to tell given some that clearly are. Terrifying. And it all comes down to ' I dont like it so how can it have happened?'. These are adult humans saying these things!
    Always good to remember that Twitter is not Britain, and that these few people live their lives in an echo-chamber of angry righteousness.
    True, but while I've no doubt fallen for something silly online it's incredible how much people will believe simply because it's on twitter. Even after explaining how votes are counted to some people yesterday I was met with replies of 'well, it does seem dodgy though' because of online comments that the tories were responsible for counting thousands of ballots and as they are awful the numbers they supposedly got dont make sense.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Powerful article from Layla Moran. I think she's right that Lab and LD need to work together. What would be really effective is agreement to stand down in particular seats. I hope that those chosen as leaders of both parties are able to coordinate.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/election-results-centre-left-progessive-lib-dems-labour-corbyn-a9247661.html

    I don't think so. Indeed it makes me suspicious of her political antennae. The next few years need to be at ground level, building up councillors and organisation. We are going to be bystanders on Brexit and Parliament for the next few years, though being untainted by that may well be a good thing.

    I like Jess Philips and she is the most centrist of the mooted candidates, but she did take Birmingham Yardley off the Lib Dems.
    That's all undoubtedly true. But ultimately, Lab/LD fighting has gifted Boris Johnson a certain number of seats (Kensington, Cities, Finchley probably others...). In a closer election that could make a big difference.
    Lab/LD coalition is probably the best to hope for in 2024.
    If you are going to run as a coupon election then the Lib Dem’s might as well just shut up shop.

    They need a distinct voice and purpose
  • nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    I'm sure we were told that's what we'd probably be getting after 18/09/14. What went wrong?

    The Tory's default position (even more entrenched now) is to deny Holyrood the appearance and appurtenances of a proper national government as much as possible. I think the Scots who are Tories (Gove) and Tories in Scotland are psychologically incapable of accepting something like that even if it was the smart move.
    If I were Boris ( I praise the good Lord that I am not) I would offer the Scots a referendum in about a years' time with three options and a single transferable vote. Full Monty independence, (with full self harm for Scotland), Devo Max and Status Quo (not the 12 bar blues variety) with single transferable vote. I would imagine Scotland will go for Devo Max and the rest of us can say good luck to them, and the SNP fox/USP will be largely shot. It could also be combined with limited representation in Westminster only on matters relating to the total UK. I.e defence.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    So, is the Labour party primarily interested in holding the government to account and looking like a government-in-waiting, or do they still care much more about their internal factionalism?

    As others have said, Starmer is the candidate who would most scare the government. Which probably means he has no chance at all.

    I disagree.

    When you look at the voting blocs they have all Starmer offers is the anti-Brexit group in a charisma free setting with Corbyn’s baggage

    I don’t see how he is more appealing to members or voters than Yvette Cooper

    Until the moderates develop a compelling programme for government and sell it effectively there is nothing there to scare the Tories.

    I don’t know what RLB thinks about Brexit. And it doesn’t matter - by 2024 that will be in the rearview mirror *as far as the electorate is concerned*. Labour needs someone who can appeal to the young, ideological lefties, northerners and without Corbyn or Brexit baggage.
    I'm afraid that what Labour is perceived to need and what it will get is quite likely to be miles apart
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    Also, I think some of the replies are not serious but it's so hard to tell given some that clearly are. Terrifying. And it all comes down to ' I dont like it so how can it have happened?'. These are adult humans saying these things!
    Can you say this and still be considered as adult?
  • Charles said:

    Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.

    Is he a hobbit now?
    Well, he just made history by Baggin' himself the biggest Tory majority since Lady Thatcher.
  • kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    Also, I think some of the replies are not serious but it's so hard to tell given some that clearly are. Terrifying. And it all comes down to ' I dont like it so how can it have happened?'. These are adult humans saying these things!
    I do wish the Global Jewish Conspiracy would get its act together and rid the Labour Party of Momentum and all the left wing nutters! What are they doing?!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,467
    If history is a guide the candidate to look out for is the person whom the rabid left can vote for, but who actually wants to win elections and even loves their country, who can then spectacularly break ranks and destroy his/her own absurd base and after losing twice make way for an electoral genius. Are there some Labour MPs out there who can talk the Momentum talk but don't believe a word of it? Hope so. I don't think it's Richard Burgon.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
    I still don't know the truth about the boy in the hospital. Almost no-one does unless they're willing to spend 10s of hours tracking down trusted sources, which I'm not. Sadly, even major newspapers no longer count as trusted sources. I can't get to the FT as it's behind a paywall.
  • algarkirk said:

    If history is a guide the candidate to look out for is the person whom the rabid left can vote for, but who actually wants to win elections and even loves their country, who can then spectacularly break ranks and destroy his/her own absurd base and after losing twice make way for an electoral genius. Are there some Labour MPs out there who can talk the Momentum talk but don't believe a word of it? Hope so. I don't think it's Richard Burgon.

    image
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    kle4 said:

    Anorak said:

    If you want a chuckle, the serious responses to this tinfoil tweet are inadvertently hilarious. I liked the one suggesting we need independent international observers.
    https://twitter.com/wilmadog09/status/1206300281312600068

    Also, I think some of the replies are not serious but it's so hard to tell given some that clearly are. Terrifying. And it all comes down to ' I dont like it so how can it have happened?'. These are adult humans saying these things!
    I do wish the Global Jewish Conspiracy would get its act together and rid the Labour Party of Momentum and all the left wing nutters! What are they doing?!
    They're good but not that good.
  • I'm Backing Burgon

    image
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    algarkirk said:

    If history is a guide the candidate to look out for is the person whom the rabid left can vote for, but who actually wants to win elections and even loves their country, who can then spectacularly break ranks and destroy his/her own absurd base and after losing twice make way for an electoral genius. Are there some Labour MPs out there who can talk the Momentum talk but don't believe a word of it? Hope so. I don't think it's Richard Burgon.

    I think you're dreaming the impossible dream. I'd rather see Labour (as is) go to hell than risk having a Momentum Govt for real.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    edited December 2019
    I love it. Obvious Red Wall joke but still good.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TomChivers/status/1206520921386868737
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    edited December 2019
    @BannedInParis - I see their Twitter account has been suspended. :lol:
  • Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
    I still don't know the truth about the boy in the hospital. Almost no-one does unless they're willing to spend 10s of hours tracking down trusted sources, which I'm not. Sadly, even major newspapers no longer count as trusted sources. I can't get to the FT as it's behind a paywall.
    The false rumour was that the photo had been faked. This was spread on Twitter by mainstream news reporters and pundits. Even after it was confirmed the picture was genuine and the mainstream tweets deleted, the rumour persisted. This is our world now.

    Here is a fascinating analysis of how the two fake A&E stories (the other being Matt Hancock's SpAd punched by a baying mob, again spread by mainstream pundits until the video emerged showing he'd walked into someone's arm) spread.

    https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/how-two-disinformation-campaigns-swung-into-action-days-before-the-uk-goes-to-the-polls/
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    José Mourinho is going to win this season's Champions League isn’t he?

    Red wall!
  • isam said:
    That is pretty genius. The Nicky Morgan character was incredibly accurate.

    If there's a criticism, it catalogued the last parliamentary sitting quite well, but the crescendo really should have been Boris conquering all
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,561
    Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.
  • Boris Johnson ruffled his hair irritably. The bald spot had definitely expanded, he noted, and it took increasing artfulness to maintain the boyish facade as his troubles mounted.
    It had all seemed so different after the 2019 triumph, and yet the seeds of his current nightmare were being sown even then. In retrospect the key decision had been to keep those lunatics Gove and Cummings in charge of delivering Brexit. He was instinctively distrustful of these kind of ideologues obsessed with their own cleverness, but since he barely understood any of the arcane Brexit mumbo jumbo himself he'd felt obliged to keep them in place.
    But what a hash they'd made of the whole thing! The EU hadn't helped by being so bloody rigid in their negotiating tactics. But still, he wished someone had explained to him quite how disastrous leaving with no deal at the end of 2020 would have been. Watching three major car firms announcing closure of their UK plants within a fortnight had been bad enough. But it was the hit to service exports to the EU that had really crippled the economy, now in its second year of recession.
    With tax revenues shrinking, there was precious little money for all that Northern infrastructure they'd promised. I mean, he'd never really intended to do much for them anyway, maybe a bypass here or there, some seed funding for a new hospital to be built in 2040, but with no money to go around the renewed wave of austerity they'd got instead had not gone down well.
    Maybe the economy tanking explained why crime was getting so much worse. Stop and search didn't seem to be helping, although it had eroded trust between some communities and the police so much that several big cities had seen a new wave of rioting in the summer. Perhaps some of his own comments hadn't helped. God, people were so bloody politically correct these days!
    If only Carrie were still around. He even missed that dog of hers, what was it called again? She'd put up with some of his wandering, but when that tape was published by the Mirror... And he was broke, being PM offered so few avenues for topping up the paltry salary, and the child support demands kept going up.
    Scotland declaring UDI had been a big blow. It was inevitable after those huge demonstrations in Glasgow against the UK referendum ban. The Scottish economy seemed to be growing again too after it had rejoined the EU. They'd certainly poached a lot of business from London thanks to their single market membership. HMQ had told him on her deathbed that losing Scotland had been like a stake through her heart. Crumbs, that had hurt him when it leaked.
    If only Labour hadn't unexpectedly elected a centrist leader. With Brexit out of the way and not quite doing what it had said on the tin, Labour had taken a massive lead in the polls.
    He took out his book of Greek poetry, but even that felt pointless now, and so he reached for the well-thumbed volume of niche interest erotica instead. Where had it all gone wrong?
  • Mr. Phil, sorry for the slow response, been doing some work.

    Revolution devolution of that nature is demented. It necessarily involves carving England into pieces with regional assemblies that cannot be the equal of Holyrood in power. Why should England be sliced up with second rate assemblies? It's mad.
  • nunu2 said:

    The truth is I can't see anyone in Labour beating Boris. Everyone keeps underestimating Boris, and even after they were completely wrong on the result (expecting it to be close) they still think Boris is rubbish. He isn't. He is highly intelligent is able to win his audience over whether it be for London or Labour working class voters. My first piece of advice to Labour is to stop underestimating him and his support. Do that and you *might* just might have a chance.

    The media made a similar mistake in 2008 when he was running against Ken. Remember the shrill letter from the Guardian about Boris not being London?

    He does provoke somewhat visceral hatred on the left, perhaps of a type not seen since Thatcher. To that end he is always seen through a negative prism by those who despise him, whereby every single action is criticised and seen through the lens of his supposed wickedness and uselessness, when other politicians would have done exactly the same and they would have cared not a jot. (Dont get me wrong, I’m not saying that Boris hasn’t done anything inflammatory and wrong in the past, I’m just saying that he is uniquely criticised for all and sundry as a result).
    Im not on the left imo, certainly would prefer May to Corbyn for example but I am guilty of the visceral hatred and will see his actions negatively until strong evidence to the contrary. One of the main reasons for that is that many of the electorate do the opposite of what you say and give him (and Trump) a teflon coat to protect themselves regardless of what they are saying and doing.

    Laziness - Ah thats just their character, they work differently
    Lies - All politicians lie, they are just better at it
    Corruption - It doesnt matter if they deliver the big stuff
    Hypocrisy - Rail against the elite when they are the elite, no problem they must be on our side
    Intolerance - You didnt get their sense of humour
    Track record - It might be rubbish but imagine what it would be like with the other guy


  • Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
    I still don't know the truth about the boy in the hospital. Almost no-one does unless they're willing to spend 10s of hours tracking down trusted sources, which I'm not. Sadly, even major newspapers no longer count as trusted sources. I can't get to the FT as it's behind a paywall.
    The false rumour was that the photo had been faked. This was spread on Twitter by mainstream news reporters and pundits. Even after it was confirmed the picture was genuine and the mainstream tweets deleted, the rumour persisted. This is our world now.

    Here is a fascinating analysis of how the two fake A&E stories (the other being Matt Hancock's SpAd punched by a baying mob, again spread by mainstream pundits until the video emerged showing he'd walked into someone's arm) spread.

    https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/how-two-disinformation-campaigns-swung-into-action-days-before-the-uk-goes-to-the-polls/
    The suspicion was it was staged and if it wasnt staged it said as much about the parent who allowed it to happen as it did about the hospital. It ticked too many boxes and smelled iffy. Though it ended up not been.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    RobD said:

    nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    The SNP will just bank that and continue demanding a referendum.
    Well, yes. However perhaps Scottish voters might think they have enough powers now......
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    Are we really doing Boris fanfic 🤮
  • MaxPB said:

    Are we really doing Boris fanfic 🤮

    I wouldn't describe myself as a fan...😉
  • Endillion said:

    Plus she (or whoever) will have five years to grow into the role before facing the electorate, by which time any early missteps will have been long forgotten.

    Because they were very accommodating of the early mistakes made by Corbyn, including those made before he was leader?

    My dream ticket is RLB with the Burgon for deputy, in a ContinuityCorbyn party. That could possibly be the end of the party.

  • The front 4 are 78% of the book, feels too short given no-one has declared as definitely running yet?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
    I still don't know the truth about the boy in the hospital. Almost no-one does unless they're willing to spend 10s of hours tracking down trusted sources, which I'm not. Sadly, even major newspapers no longer count as trusted sources. I can't get to the FT as it's behind a paywall.
    The false rumour was that the photo had been faked. This was spread on Twitter by mainstream news reporters and pundits. Even after it was confirmed the picture was genuine and the mainstream tweets deleted, the rumour persisted. This is our world now.

    Here is a fascinating analysis of how the two fake A&E stories (the other being Matt Hancock's SpAd punched by a baying mob, again spread by mainstream pundits until the video emerged showing he'd walked into someone's arm) spread.

    https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/how-two-disinformation-campaigns-swung-into-action-days-before-the-uk-goes-to-the-polls/
    The suspicion was it was staged and if it wasnt staged it said as much about the parent who allowed it to happen as it did about the hospital. It ticked too many boxes and smelled iffy. Though it ended up not been.
    Thanks. That's what I'd concluded was the case but I ended this election deeply cynical about the press coverage ... even worse than decades ago. Many voters are now getting their news from (anti-)social media which seem to make the Mail look reliable. OTOH if these media could be regulated, like broadcasting ...
  • kle4 said:

    Banterman said:

    If Rebecca Long-Bailey is elected the new Labour leader, Boris Johnson will think all his Christmases have come at once, especially if Richard Burgon is elected as her deputy. The film title "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind.

    A week ago most of the media was trying to explain why the polls were incorrect and Boris would be lucky to get a minority government. Today Swinson has gone, Corbyn is going and in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and Sinn Fein are coming under increasing pressure to re-establish Stormont because if the Sec of St for NI imposes new elections, both parties could be HUGE losers. I hadn't realised that SF had lost 25% of its vote share on Thursday.

    What they need is a sensible grey hair like Michael Howard to be leader for a few years, to put them back on the right track.

    The reality is all the sensible ones will thought of as Tory traitors by the Momentum/SWP/RCP infiltration gang that now control Labour.
    At least they'd get it over with at the start, unlike the BJ party who 22 years after he left the crease now consider sensible grey haired Johnny Major a traitor.
    Thats a silly comparison. While Majors repudiation is poor for the Tories after 22 years of course some even senior figures are going to be quite far apart from current leadership and memberships. Unchanging support decade after decade is bonkers in times of change.
    I don't think it's silly if one's comparing the intemperate responses, which I'm doing. I believe there were even several fulminations involving 'betrayal' and 'traitor' against Major on here.
    I suspect the only significant divergence for the grandees with BJ is over Brexit. I would imagine once that is done John Major (and even Hesletine) will share many of BJ's stated aims to address forgotten communities and spread opportunity evenly in a one-nation way. It's what they've always striven to advance.

    FWIW, I didn't think their interventions last week were traitorous betrayal - misguided and unhelpful, especially given the likely outcome. I would hope a way for Major at least to be admitted back to the body of the kirk would be found.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,373
    Thornberry vs Flint. Should be interesting.
  • Mr. Phil, sorry for the slow response, been doing some work.

    Revolution devolution of that nature is demented. It necessarily involves carving England into pieces with regional assemblies that cannot be the equal of Holyrood in power. Why should England be sliced up with second rate assemblies? It's mad.

    You might as well advance the same argument for abolishing the Welsh Assembly, given that they also have fewer powers than Scotland. That's after the Welsh voted overwhelmingly to extend its remit, after initially approving the creation of the Welsh Assembly by the narrowest of margins.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    The SNP will just bank that and continue demanding a referendum.
    We need to establish a transparent threshold for requesting a new referendum - otherwise we'll be doing it every five years when the SNP get a ScotParl majority of seats on less than half the popular vote.

    My suggestion would be, either:

    a) at least 25 years have passed since the previous referendum (ie a generation), and an electoral mandate for a new one has been gained.

    or

    b) a substantial material change has already taken place before a new electoral mandate is achieved for a referendum.

    b) would mean that the current GE and ScotParl "mandates" don't count, as they would need to gain a mandate AFTER the material change of Brexit has taken place. This removes the possibility that the existing "mandates" gained in the Scottish and UK GEs were conflated with votes for other parts of their platform that weren't Brexit.

    And of course, we have to pay due regard to the SNPs recent proposals about the constitutional proprieties of the Brexit referendum - meaning we should insist on a confirmatory vote once the deal has been negotiated. Plus the rest of the UK should also get a vote - as clearly it would be unfair to rip England and Wales out of a union against their wishes.
  • Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
    I still don't know the truth about the boy in the hospital. Almost no-one does unless they're willing to spend 10s of hours tracking down trusted sources, which I'm not. Sadly, even major newspapers no longer count as trusted sources. I can't get to the FT as it's behind a paywall.
    The false rumour was that the photo had been faked. This was spread on Twitter by mainstream news reporters and pundits. Even after it was confirmed the picture was genuine and the mainstream tweets deleted, the rumour persisted. This is our world now.

    Here is a fascinating analysis of how the two fake A&E stories (the other being Matt Hancock's SpAd punched by a baying mob, again spread by mainstream pundits until the video emerged showing he'd walked into someone's arm) spread.

    https://firstdraftnews.org/latest/how-two-disinformation-campaigns-swung-into-action-days-before-the-uk-goes-to-the-polls/
    The suspicion was it was staged and if it wasnt staged it said as much about the parent who allowed it to happen as it did about the hospital. It ticked too many boxes and smelled iffy. Though it ended up not been.
    Surely the art of propaganda is it should seem plausible. As some have noted, whether or not Emily Thornberry disparaged northern voters, or was it Leave voters, it sounds like the sort of thing she might have said. Ditto Andrew Mitchell over plebgate.

    But look at the linked analysis, and the evidence of automated retweeting and amplification of this fake news. The Americans previously found this in disinformation campaigns. Fake news or better still real news being spread automatically to further one cause or another or just to increase controversy and disruption. Yet people still claim this has no effect.
  • I'm Backing Burgon

    image

    Justingreggible?
  • The front 4 are 78% of the book, feels too short given no-one has declared as definitely running yet?

    Remember Chuka was front runner for a while, and he didn't even decide to run in the end.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 589

    Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    My grandfather worked as a jeweller/pawnbroker. In those days pawnbrokers had a three golden balls sign outside the shop. One day a lady came into the shop and told him: "Did you know one of your balls has fallen off and is rolling down the street?"
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    At least it wasn't the other spelling!

  • Do you think they do realise that? Johnson has vowed no tax rises and higher public spending. Let’s see what happens if he can’t deliver.



    He hasn't vowed no tax rises, he's said no rises in the main three taxes. That's a huge, huge difference.

    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.

  • nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    I'm sure we were told that's what we'd probably be getting after 18/09/14. What went wrong?

    The Tory's default position (even more entrenched now) is to deny Holyrood the appearance and appurtenances of a proper national government as much as possible. I think the Scots who are Tories (Gove) and Tories in Scotland are psychologically incapable of accepting something like that even if it was the smart move.
    There is another route of course: to declare that "devolution has failed" because a) it's never enough to satisfy those wanting independence, and b) every time you give a bit more devolution, it encourages those...wanting more independence.

    So - once Brexit is "done", expect a bold move to grab back more powers (or at least threaten this) - but probably to move more MOG stuff to the regions to compensate.

    Easy to frame devolution as another Blair-era Labour mistake, like all that NHS privatisation they did...
    Not saying it might not be attempted, but if there's one way to make the Scots fall in love with devolution...

    Plenty of tin eared idiots who'd love to do something like that I'm sure.
    It's risky sure, but like Brexit, once you get a bit of momentum behind you (in the old fashioned sense) then more people (opportunists, out of exhaustion?) might fall in behind a return to the status quo. There is an argument that we've reached peak SNP, so there's only positives from taking a devo-roll back position.

    Just to be clear, I'd support Scottish independence (particularly within the EU) but given that this would require the Euro, Schengen, etc. there might be enough people who baulk at this, and throw their lot in with a pro-Westminster Party.

    Stranger things have happened in the last year...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    edited December 2019
    Roberto1 said:



    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.

    Income tax, VAT and NI.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:


    Plus she (or whoever) will have five years to grow into the role before facing the electorate, by which time any early missteps will have been long forgotten.

    Because they were very accommodating of the early mistakes made by Corbyn, including those made before he was leader?

    My dream ticket is RLB with the Burgon for deputy, in a ContinuityCorbyn party. That could possibly be the end of the party.

    Yes, actually; almost no-one remembers now how scruffy he looked at first, and the early rambling attempts at PMQs (OK we do, but most voters don't).

    RLB doesn't have anything like the pre-existing baggage, and even if she did she'd certainly be better at admitting to mistakes and fixing them, before they got completely out of hand. Corbyn would have got away with most of his issues if he wasn't so unwilling to apologise.

    PS fixed the blockquotes for you :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,564
    Andy_JS said:
    Given labour have complained of attacks and smears, separate things, that is even true things are not allowed, I'm not sure media blaming is the way to go.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,606
    MaxPB said:

    Roberto1 said:



    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.

    Income tax, VAT and NI.
    I think the threshold is set to rise in April, but I'm not an expert @Scrapheap_as_was will have the details.
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