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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebecca Long-Bailey soars to a 32% chance in the Corbyn succes

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  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    How on this good earth did Owen Jones ever get to Secondary school let alone anything else?
  • Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    Classy.

    Speaking on behalf of those people I know who work with young people.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited December 2019

    RobD said:

    nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    The SNP will just bank that and continue demanding a referendum.
    We need to establish a transparent threshold for requesting a new referendum - otherwise we'll be doing it every five years when the SNP get a ScotParl majority of seats on less than half the popular vote.

    My suggestion would be, either:

    a) at least 25 years have passed since the previous referendum (ie a generation), and an electoral mandate for a new one has been gained.

    or

    b) a substantial material change has already taken place before a new electoral mandate is achieved for a referendum.

    b) would mean that the current GE and ScotParl "mandates" don't count, as they would need to gain a mandate AFTER the material change of Brexit has taken place. This removes the possibility that the existing "mandates" gained in the Scottish and UK GEs were conflated with votes for other parts of their platform that weren't Brexit.

    And of course, we have to pay due regard to the SNPs recent proposals about the constitutional proprieties of the Brexit referendum - meaning we should insist on a confirmatory vote once the deal has been negotiated. Plus the rest of the UK should also get a vote - as clearly it would be unfair to rip England and Wales out of a union against their wishes.
    I am sad that the 2014 referendum didn’t settle things and I’d be very sad if Scotland chose to leave the Union, but I don’t believe that we should hold them against their will, in a similar way that I feel Brexit must be respected.

    I do think given our somewhat.... fraught recent experience with referendums that there needs to be some sort of accord between Westminster and Holyrood governing the process. Personally I could get behind a document that said:

    1) if SNP win Holyrood 2021, they will get permission to hold a referendum;
    2) before the referendum the Scottish government will have to produce a document clearly setting out the proposals for what an independent Scotland would look like and this will form the basis of the vote and the mandate being given.
    3) if the vote is no, there is an understanding that there shall be no further referendum for at least X years.
  • Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    No, the burden of proof is on Flint if she wants to argue justification (i.e. that Thornberry made the comment about stupid voters or one substantially similar). All Thornberry has to show is that Flint made the statement reporting the alleged comment and that Flint was referring to her. She will have no problems with that at all.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
    Thornberry has form for dismissing others as idiots. Remember when she lost her shadow cabinet position because of her superior attitude.

    The optics of a very wealthy MP who is married to a senior judge using the courts against a newly unemployed former colleague are horrendous
    She really is Lady Nugee using all her privilege and entitlement to the full. I'd be pretty clear what the view of her is in the court of public opinion.
  • I have just rejoined the Labour Party, which I had been a member of for 90%+ of my adult life. I have rejoined because of what I hope it might become (again), not because of what it is now. £2.17 per month by direct debit (retired=unwaged).

    Of all the touted leadership candidates, there is only one I have so far seen who would cause this decision to be very short lived. There is another who I think has the potential to unify all wings of the party and bring it back from the brink. Both are women.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    edited December 2019
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Given labour have complained of attacks and smears, separate things, that is even true things are not allowed, I'm not sure media blaming is the way to go.
    It is probably unhelpful but we should also remember it is not just the losers. The victorious Conservatives are complaining about anti-Tory bias from the BBC.
  • Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    No, the burden of proof is on Flint if she wants to argue justification (i.e. that Thornberry made the comment about stupid voters or one substantially similar). All Thornberry has to show is that Flint made the statement reporting the alleged comment and that Flint was referring to her. She will have no problems with that at all.
    Thanks for the clarification.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    I'm Backing Burgon

    image

    Burgon is not even a pound shop Trudeau
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    edited December 2019
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roberto1 said:



    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.

    Income tax, VAT and NI.
    I think the threshold is set to rise in April, but I'm not an expert @Scrapheap_as_was will have the details.
    NI or just employees NI? The increase in Employers NI over the years has been a great way of increasing tax take in a way most people don't realise

    Although it has made IR35 which was once a minor annoyance for some people a bigger issue as care companies use whatever tricks their accountants can find to save a few quid (the 2 person care subcontractor is a great example I see fairly often).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    Classy.

    Speaking on behalf of those people I know who work with young people.
    I know people who work with young people. They are called teachers.

    There are also people called parents, some of whom seem to think it is acceptable to abdicate their responsibilities to youth outreach workers.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Roberto1 said:



    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.

    Income tax, VAT and NI.
    I think the threshold is set to rise in April, but I'm not an expert @Scrapheap_as_was will have the details.
    I would normally by now but because we're overdue the Budget we haven't got these confirmed .... We do expect the NI threshold to be raised in line with the Tory manifesto but again nothing definite just yet.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    Trouble is, the accusation is out there and many will believe it even after cast-iron proof it is false. We saw a recent example on this very site with the boy in the hospital.
    I still don't know the truth about the boy in the hospital. Almost no-one does unless they're willing to spend 10s of hours tracking down trusted sources, which I'm not. Sadly, even major newspapers no longer count as trusted sources. I can't get to the FT as it's behind a paywall.
    Like all these stories and all the crap about Andrew Neil interviews, etc, etc - the election was lost long before any of it happened. Very little difference between the polls before and after the campaign. Of course people on here don't get it because we're as much in the bubble as everyone else. My partner has a moderate influence in politics and like me, watched no debates, QTs or that much news since the election was called. Far more interested in Reality TV shows and so on. But even he knew Corbynism was sh*** and despite disliking Boris that he was much the lesser of the two evils.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Given labour have complained of attacks and smears, separate things, that is even true things are not allowed, I'm not sure media blaming is the way to go.
    It is probably unhelpful but we should also remember it is not just the losers. The victorious Conservatives are complaining about anti-Tory bias from the BBC.
    Oh indeed, but that's being vindictive not trying to ignore failings and blame others for defeat. Which is what such comments are, giving the lie to other comments about not doing that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    I have just rejoined the Labour Party, which I had been a member of for 90%+ of my adult life. I have rejoined because of what I hope it might become (again), not because of what it is now. £2.17 per month by direct debit (retired=unwaged).

    Of all the touted leadership candidates, there is only one I have so far seen who would cause this decision to be very short lived. There is another who I think has the potential to unify all wings of the party and bring it back from the brink. Both are women.

    How long until some ex-SWP Momentumite brands you an Entryist?
  • I see Daisy Cooper has been on the telly this morning and might be standing as a LD leader candidate...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    edited December 2019
    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited December 2019

    nunu2 said:

    I just wonder if Boris will offer Scotland a big devolution deal. No, you can't have a second ref, but you can have full fiscal autonomy? I think he just might.....

    I'm sure we were told that's what we'd probably be getting after 18/09/14. What went wrong?

    The Tory's default position (even more entrenched now) is to deny Holyrood the appearance and appurtenances of a proper national government as much as possible. I think the Scots who are Tories (Gove) and Tories in Scotland are psychologically incapable of accepting something like that even if it was the smart move.
    If I were Boris ( I praise the good Lord that I am not) I would offer the Scots a referendum in about a years' time with three options and a single transferable vote. Full Monty independence, (with full self harm for Scotland), Devo Max and Status Quo (not the 12 bar blues variety) with single transferable vote. I would imagine Scotland will go for Devo Max and the rest of us can say good luck to them, and the SNP fox/USP will be largely shot. It could also be combined with limited representation in Westminster only on matters relating to the total UK. I.e defence.
    Good idea and that is largely what Quebec has after 2 referenda on independence from Canada, with most Quebec affairs now decided in Quebec City not Ottowa
  • The front 4 are 78% of the book, feels too short given no-one has declared as definitely running yet?

    Remember Chuka was front runner for a while, and he didn't even decide to run in the end.
    Which party are you referring to?

  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,539
    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Powerful article from Layla Moran. I think she's right that Lab and LD need to work together. What would be really effective is agreement to stand down in particular seats. I hope that those chosen as leaders of both parties are able to coordinate.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/election-results-centre-left-progessive-lib-dems-labour-corbyn-a9247661.html

    I don't think so. Indeed it makes me suspicious of her political antennae. The next few years need to be at ground level, building up councillors and organisation. We are going to be bystanders on Brexit and Parliament for the next few years, though being untainted by that may well be a good thing.

    I like Jess Philips and she is the most centrist of the mooted candidates, but she did take Birmingham Yardley off the Lib Dems.
    That's all undoubtedly true. But ultimately, Lab/LD fighting has gifted Boris Johnson a certain number of seats (Kensington, Cities, Finchley probably others...). In a closer election that could make a big difference.
    Lab/LD coalition is probably the best to hope for in 2024.
    If you are going to run as a coupon election then the Lib Dem’s might as well just shut up shop.

    They need a distinct voice and purpose
    I agree Charles. Over the next 4 years the Lib Dems need to clearly state their main political and philosophical beliefs. These have been lost over the brexit debate.

    This needs a leader who can articulate why they are a Lib Dem and why this is different from Labour and Conservatives.

    These building blocks are necessary otherwise the party becomes no more than a transactionary vote receptacle.
  • I have just rejoined the Labour Party, which I had been a member of for 90%+ of my adult life. I have rejoined because of what I hope it might become (again), not because of what it is now. £2.17 per month by direct debit (retired=unwaged).

    Of all the touted leadership candidates, there is only one I have so far seen who would cause this decision to be very short lived. There is another who I think has the potential to unify all wings of the party and bring it back from the brink. Both are women.

    How long until some ex-SWP Momentumite brands you an Entryist?
    In the case of my Momentum dominated CLP Executive that would be ex-CPGB and ex-Socialist Alliance types. The ones who have been a member for 4 years, as opposed to my 40 years (on and off).
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    I'm Backing Burgon

    image

    Burgon is not even a pound shop Trudeau
    Besides, I can't see us having a visible minority Labour leader just yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    No, the burden of proof is on Flint if she wants to argue justification (i.e. that Thornberry made the comment about stupid voters or one substantially similar). All Thornberry has to show is that Flint made the statement reporting the alleged comment and that Flint was referring to her. She will have no problems with that at all.
    I doubt whoever Flint is quoting, if they exist, wants to be dropped in it. I expect she will quietly retract at some point.

    I didn't even think Thornberry should have been sacked for the flag business, but even I dont doubt she thinks something similar to the alleged quote . It's matches exactly what her and Starmers actions have been.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    Classy.

    Speaking on behalf of those people I know who work with young people.
    I know people who work with young people. They are called teachers.

    There are also people called parents, some of whom seem to think it is acceptable to abdicate their responsibilities to youth outreach workers.
    That's as maybe, but it seems harsh to blame the youth workers for the system failures that make them necessary?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    I have just rejoined the Labour Party, which I had been a member of for 90%+ of my adult life. I have rejoined because of what I hope it might become (again), not because of what it is now. £2.17 per month by direct debit (retired=unwaged).

    Of all the touted leadership candidates, there is only one I have so far seen who would cause this decision to be very short lived. There is another who I think has the potential to unify all wings of the party and bring it back from the brink. Both are women.

    How long until some ex-SWP Momentumite brands you an Entryist?
    In the case of my Momentum dominated CLP Executive that would be ex-CPGB and ex-Socialist Alliance types. The ones who have been a member for 4 years, as opposed to my 40 years (on and off).
    Sounds like you could be in for some entertainment.
  • Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    Merry Christmas. You say any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU but of course it can and almost certainly will, which is why these things are so difficult.
  • Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    Merry Christmas. You say any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU but of course it can and almost certainly will, which is why these things are so difficult.
    In the end WTO would have to apply but I do not expect that to happen
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,239
    Roberto1 said:


    Do you think they do realise that? Johnson has vowed no tax rises and higher public spending. Let’s see what happens if he can’t deliver.

    He hasn't vowed no tax rises, he's said no rises in the main three taxes. That's a huge, huge difference.

    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.



    Income Tax, National Insurance and VAT: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-conservative-manifesto-income-tax-vat-ni-boris-johnson-launch-a9215351.html
  • alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    Boris conservatives will be very different from any previous conservative government

    It is going to be fascinating to watch
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Charles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Powerful article from Layla Moran. I think she's right that Lab and LD need to work together. What would be really effective is agreement to stand down in particular seats. I hope that those chosen as leaders of both parties are able to coordinate.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/election-results-centre-left-progessive-lib-dems-labour-corbyn-a9247661.html

    I don't think so. Indeed it makes me suspicious of her political antennae. The next few years need to be at ground level, building up councillors and organisation. We are going to be bystanders on Brexit and Parliament for the next few years, though being untainted by that may well be a good thing.

    I like Jess Philips and she is the most centrist of the mooted candidates, but she did take Birmingham Yardley off the Lib Dems.
    That's all undoubtedly true. But ultimately, Lab/LD fighting has gifted Boris Johnson a certain number of seats (Kensington, Cities, Finchley probably others...). In a closer election that could make a big difference.
    Lab/LD coalition is probably the best to hope for in 2024.
    If you are going to run as a coupon election then the Lib Dem’s might as well just shut up shop.

    They need a distinct voice and purpose
    I agree Charles. Over the next 4 years the Lib Dems need to clearly state their main political and philosophical beliefs. These have been lost over the brexit debate.

    This needs a leader who can articulate why they are a Lib Dem and why this is different from Labour and Conservatives.

    These building blocks are necessary otherwise the party becomes no more than a transactionary vote receptacle.
    The LDs need to get away from Brexit and develop a couple of headline policies that don't exist elsewhere - and then promote them relentlessly, show everyone what they stand for rather than what they stand against.

    Personally, I'd start with sending a working group to Portugal to look at the effects of decriminalising drugs, then maybe something on planning and housing, which will be big subjects this Parliament.

    They also need to keep an eye out for overly-authoritarian policies coming from government, and be prepared to make the liberal view in opposition.

    There's millions of us who voted blue last week, who could be persuaded to change to yellow once Brexit is in the past.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    Emily Thornberry has instigated legal action against Caroline Flint. Popcorn time, as this is the last thing the Labour Party needs at this point.

    TBH I don't see that Flint left Thornberry much alternative. The burden of proof will be on Thornberry to show that the remarks were without foundation. However, if Flint is unable/unwilling to name the (alleged) third party or is worried the third party would refute the (alleged) comments attributed to him/her, then she might decide that it is better to settle for a full retraction.
    No, the burden of proof is on Flint if she wants to argue justification (i.e. that Thornberry made the comment about stupid voters or one substantially similar). All Thornberry has to show is that Flint made the statement reporting the alleged comment and that Flint was referring to her. She will have no problems with that at all.
    Thanks for the clarification.
    If this is a defamation case then the person bringing the case has to show it is defamatory. In general words are never automatically defamatory - free speech and all that.

  • alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    Precisely. The Conservatives need solutions that work for areas previously left behind. That doesn't mean Labour solutions. If Labour solutions worked Labour would have implemented them in the century they've held those seats.
  • alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    But the Conservative Party no longer exists. The husk that remains of it is merely a vehicle for the furtherance of the career of Boris Johnson. If Boris decides that a big-state, high-regulatory, high-tax economy will assure him future electoral success - and it looks like that's the path he's going down - then so be it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    @Sandpit I'm in a surprisingly safe Tory seat now (At least for the next election) so won't have the pressure of deciding the Gov't like I did in this election in 2024 :D !
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited December 2019
  • @Sandpit I'm in a surprisingly safe Tory seat now (At least for the next election) so won't have the pressure of deciding the Gov't like I did in this election in 2024 :D !
    Times are so febrile there's no such thing as a safe seat. As this election like the ones before it should have shown.

    There have been 5 Parliaments and 4 elections this decade. I'm curious what proportion of seats have never changed hands this decade?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:
    The membership is already huge, I dont think that's the problem Paul.

    Momentum defeating the Tories on social media means jack squat.

    Offering to have Labour and Green MPs, while I doubt the Greens would go for it, sounds interesting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited December 2019

    alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    Precisely. The Conservatives need solutions that work for areas previously left behind. That doesn't mean Labour solutions. If Labour solutions worked Labour would have implemented them in the century they've held those seats.
    Exactly. Conservative solutions are tax breaks, free zones and enterprise initiatives.
    Labour solutions are tax credits, council houses and state support for failing businesses.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The membership is already huge, I dont think that's the problem Paul.
    Soon there will be more Labour members than voters
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    edited December 2019

    alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    Precisely. The Conservatives need solutions that work for areas previously left behind. That doesn't mean Labour solutions. If Labour solutions worked Labour would have implemented them in the century they've held those seats.
    Labour may have held those seats but the Conservatives ran the government. Vice versa in other seats at other times.
  • kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The membership is already huge, I dont think that's the problem Paul.
    The Green Party might object to being 'absorbed'.
    'Political Education' sounds Stalinist.
    The paper could bankrupt the Labour Party, so probably a good idea.
  • alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    But the Conservative Party no longer exists. The husk that remains of it is merely a vehicle for the furtherance of the career of Boris Johnson. If Boris decides that a big-state, high-regulatory, high-tax economy will assure him future electoral success - and it looks like that's the path he's going down - then so be it.
    What is it that leads you to believe that?

    Was it the surprising absence of large spending commitments? The clear arguments made over years by him and his supporters for low regulations? The ambition of regulatory divergence from the sclerotic EU? Or the commitment not to increase the main tax rates?

    You are nothing but a sore loser unreconciled to the fact we are leaving the EU. Just because you claim until you're blue in the face that the sun rises in the west doesn't make it so.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Phil said:

    Roberto1 said:


    Do you think they do realise that? Johnson has vowed no tax rises and higher public spending. Let’s see what happens if he can’t deliver.

    He hasn't vowed no tax rises, he's said no rises in the main three taxes. That's a huge, huge difference.
    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.



    Income Tax, National Insurance and VAT: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-conservative-manifesto-income-tax-vat-ni-boris-johnson-launch-a9215351.html

    One policy that is certain is the announced national insurance tax allowance increase to 9.5K - and then to 12.5K

    Note that the basic tax allowance is 12.5K - brining those numbers into line has long been a criticism of the steadily increase income tax allowance.

    For histories sake - here is what happened to the income tax allowance over the last few years:

    2019 to 2020 £12,500
    2018 to 2019 £11,850
    2017 to 2018 £11,500
    2016 to 2017 £11,000


    The idea of the change to NI is that when complete, you will pay no taxes on income if you earn 12.5K a year - your payslip will have no deductions to the treasury.

    This is an idea long championed by the libertarian right - why define people as poor, take their money away, then say they are poor (again) and give them benefits?
  • alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    Precisely. The Conservatives need solutions that work for areas previously left behind. That doesn't mean Labour solutions. If Labour solutions worked Labour would have implemented them in the century they've held those seats.
    Labour may have held those seats but the Conservatives ran the government. Vice versa in other seats at other times.
    The Conservatives ran the government? For the whole of the last century? Including local government in these areas? Again for the whole of the last century?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    @Sandpit I'm in a surprisingly safe Tory seat now (At least for the next election) so won't have the pressure of deciding the Gov't like I did in this election in 2024 :D !
    Times are so febrile there's no such thing as a safe seat. As this election like the ones before it should have shown.

    There have been 5 Parliaments and 4 elections this decade. I'm curious what proportion of seats have never changed hands this decade?

    Most seats Cameron won in 2010 are still Tory now with a few exceptions e.g. Putney, Enfield Southgate and Richmond Park.

    Most seats outside Scotland Brown won are still Labour now, even if many in the North, Wales and Midlands have gone Tory.

    Only the LDs have lost most of their 2010 seats
  • alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    But the Conservative Party no longer exists. The husk that remains of it is merely a vehicle for the furtherance of the career of Boris Johnson. If Boris decides that a big-state, high-regulatory, high-tax economy will assure him future electoral success - and it looks like that's the path he's going down - then so be it.
    Like the GOP is a vehicle for Trump.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    HYUFD said:
    1. HYUFD - sorry if I've just off-topicked you. Fat fingers and now I can't seem to undo it.
    2. The Labour Party appear to be splitting into not two but threewarring factions: the hard left, the Blairites, and the likes of Kinnock, Flint, Mann etc who - while not necessarily leavers themselves, are at least broadly sympathetic to their leave-voting constituents. Is there a label for this latter group? They have seemed a tiny and anomalous sub-group within the party this last twenty years but are bexoming more vocal.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Endillion said:

    Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    Classy.

    Speaking on behalf of those people I know who work with young people.
    I know people who work with young people. They are called teachers.

    There are also people called parents, some of whom seem to think it is acceptable to abdicate their responsibilities to youth outreach workers.
    That's as maybe, but it seems harsh to blame the youth workers for the system failures that make them necessary?
    OK, let me take a step back.

    I was trying to make the point that RLB has a different back-story and work experience to the majority of Labour MPs, who seem to come from the same narrow set of jobs, usually from the public sector, usually being youth workers or something similar. Thereby having a total disconnect from "the many" - the middle 80% I referred to yesterday.

    My dig at feckless parents was just a side-rant.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    HYUFD said:
    There are loads of these exit poll reaction vids. Some ecstatic, some horrified, all entertaining.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586

    alex_ said:

    Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    “Moving onto Labour territory” or “adopting Labour policies”? There seems to be a hell of a lot of enthusiasm for the latter for the sake of stuffing Labour, without actually remembering that traditionally Conservatives did actually oppose some of this stuff for reasons other than tribalism.

    The key should be that the election result has given them a hearing among previously closed minds in the electorate to promote Conservative solutions. Not just deliver Labour ones
    But the Conservative Party no longer exists. The husk that remains of it is merely a vehicle for the furtherance of the career of Boris Johnson. If Boris decides that a big-state, high-regulatory, high-tax economy will assure him future electoral success - and it looks like that's the path he's going down - then so be it.
    What is it that leads you to believe that?

    Was it the surprising absence of large spending commitments? The clear arguments made over years by him and his supporters for low regulations? The ambition of regulatory divergence from the sclerotic EU? Or the commitment not to increase the main tax rates?

    You are nothing but a sore loser unreconciled to the fact we are leaving the EU. Just because you claim until you're blue in the face that the sun rises in the west doesn't make it so.
    Once out of the EU, the government can do something monstrous like demanding that any company taking on a big infrastructure project will have to take on and train x number of long term unemployed UK citizens.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:
    Don't worry HY - I'm a Political Education Officer, so I won't be turning them all into Marxists.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Alistair said:

    What am I missing? The election is over. The SNP wants independence for Scotland.
    They are claiming a mandate - argued for on the basis of stopping the Tories for "independence" - they barely mentioned "independence" in their campaign '.

    Absolute load of shit that you've got from yoons on Twitter. They mentioned independence all over their leaflets. Plus, you know, their manifesto.
    But not in their Facebook ads until polling day. Funny that.

    Manifesto mentions:

    EU: 106
    Brexit: 68
    Tories: 39
    NHS: 29
    Boris Johnson: 15
    independence: 13

    Not surprised:
    Education: 3
    Policing 0 ?
    Health, education and policing are of course all devolved issues so not relevant to Westminster elections.

    Albeit sometimes Sturgeon seems to not quite understand this...
    Shocking the way Sturgeon kept forcing these issues into discussions when all the media wanted to talk about with her was non devolved stuff.
    It's almost like she wants to avoid talking about those subjects.

    And a referendum is a great distraction (albeit a single discussion).
    Yebbut my post was a response to a suggestion that Sturgeon doesn't quite understand that devolved issues aren't relevant to Westminster elections when in fact every single media interviewer based their questioning of her on those so called irrelevant issues.
    TBF they are relevant but only on the competence/priority angle (not specific policy) - they are a track record [i don’t have a view on how she has done] in which it is fair to judge the SNP
  • Roberto1 said:


    Do you think they do realise that? Johnson has vowed no tax rises and higher public spending. Let’s see what happens if he can’t deliver.

    He hasn't vowed no tax rises, he's said no rises in the main three taxes. That's a huge, huge difference.

    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.



    VAT?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Why should anyone care what Paul Mason thinks? Same for all of the groupies.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    kle4 said:

    I dont like the man but fair play if he managed it. More likely we just get an updated crap system.
    Exactly. He ain't wrong, is he?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The membership is already huge, I dont think that's the problem Paul.
    Soon there will be more Labour members than voters
    That was the case in the Richmond Park by-election.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Much as Toynbee is ridiculous the two aren't really contradictory. She reiterates her praise for the manifesto in the second article.
  • Good afternoon

    Now the dust has settled on the GE it is clear Boris can follow whatever course he wishes and hopefully he will move onto labour's territory much as the SNP did in Scotland thereby closing the space for labour to rally at anytime in the near future

    On Brexit it is clear the mood has changed both here and in Europe. Previously so many were working to stop Brexit but that cause has been lost and the EU, more specifically the EU countries, now know they cannot frustrate the process and need to acknowledge that Boris has a strong hand and will use it. I note that Wellington, Canberra, Tokyo, China and the US among others, have all confirmed they want immediate trade talks and of course any FTA with the EU cannot impact on our deals outside the EU

    I am not going to engage in daily arguments over Scots independence but suffice to say I cannot see a referendum before late 2021and I expect the union to win

    I intend posting less for a while as I catch up with so much left over during the intensity of the GE and immediate aftermath but will not abandon PB completely

    And may I wish all posters a great Xmas and New Year

    Please don't take to big a step back Big_G.

    Many on here enjoy reading your posts - they are always reasoned, reasonable, cordial and wise.

    But I agree on the need to catch up on stuff - the last 6 weeks of the GE have whizzed by and I'm not even sure where the ever-vigilant MrsW is up to on our festive preparations!

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:
    1. HYUFD - sorry if I've just off-topicked you. Fat fingers and now I can't seem to undo it.
    2. The Labour Party appear to be splitting into not two but threewarring factions: the hard left, the Blairites, and the likes of Kinnock, Flint, Mann etc who - while not necessarily leavers themselves, are at least broadly sympathetic to their leave-voting constituents. Is there a label for this latter group? They have seemed a tiny and anomalous sub-group within the party this last twenty years but are bexoming more vocal.
    Soft left provincials?
  • HYUFD said:
    Don't worry HY - I'm a Political Education Officer, so I won't be turning them all into Marxists.
    So you're the one for the punishment beatings? ;)
  • Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    Classy.

    Speaking on behalf of those people I know who work with young people.
    I know people who work with young people. They are called teachers.

    There are also people called parents, some of whom seem to think it is acceptable to abdicate their responsibilities to youth outreach workers.
    So would you call scout leaders youth outreach workers? Or DoE volunteers? Or those people who work to assist the 1 in 5 children in this country who identify as young carers? Or in my own case, working with young people in local schools to form peer-groups to work on science projects?

    Or would you say "I covered all of those under teachers".

    Yes, there are parents who abdicate their responsibilities, but there are also parents who need help, and in any case it takes a village to raise a child. Youth outreach is part of that village. If you simply cut the feckless off, you are storing up problems for society in the future.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:
    1. HYUFD - sorry if I've just off-topicked you. Fat fingers and now I can't seem to undo it.
    2. The Labour Party appear to be splitting into not two but threewarring factions: the hard left, the Blairites, and the likes of Kinnock, Flint, Mann etc who - while not necessarily leavers themselves, are at least broadly sympathetic to their leave-voting constituents. Is there a label for this latter group? They have seemed a tiny and anomalous sub-group within the party this last twenty years but are bexoming more vocal.
    Soft left provincials?
    That'll do. At leaat it'll be clear who we are talking about.
    Tbh, I've always had quite a soft spot for the SLP wing of Lab. But they've been pretty much sidelined since Bryan Gould's unsuccessful tout at the leadership. (For the purposes of this argument, Dagenham is in the provinces).
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    Classy.

    Speaking on behalf of those people I know who work with young people.
    I know people who work with young people. They are called teachers.

    There are also people called parents, some of whom seem to think it is acceptable to abdicate their responsibilities to youth outreach workers.
    That's as maybe, but it seems harsh to blame the youth workers for the system failures that make them necessary?
    OK, let me take a step back.

    I was trying to make the point that RLB has a different back-story and work experience to the majority of Labour MPs, who seem to come from the same narrow set of jobs, usually from the public sector, usually being youth workers or something similar. Thereby having a total disconnect from "the many" - the middle 80% I referred to yesterday.

    My dig at feckless parents was just a side-rant.
    Well, that seems fair.

    In the spirit of side rants, may I just say that RLB's early career and experience on the subject of pawn will serve her well for when she's being used as one by John McDonnell.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    What to do from here ?


    Lay cooper, Jarvis and lewis?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Times are so febrile there's no such thing as a safe seat. As this election like the ones before it should have shown.

    There have been 5 Parliaments and 4 elections this decade. I'm curious what proportion of seats have never changed hands this decade?

    Most seats Cameron won in 2010 are still Tory now with a few exceptions e.g. Putney, Enfield Southgate and Richmond Park.

    Most seats outside Scotland Brown won are still Labour now, even if many in the North, Wales and Midlands have gone Tory.

    Only the LDs have lost most of their 2010 seats
    Seats that changed hands in 2010 changed hands this decade. Going into 2010 Labour had roughly 349 MPs.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:
    1. HYUFD - sorry if I've just off-topicked you. Fat fingers and now I can't seem to undo it.
    2. The Labour Party appear to be splitting into not two but threewarring factions: the hard left, the Blairites, and the likes of Kinnock, Flint, Mann etc who - while not necessarily leavers themselves, are at least broadly sympathetic to their leave-voting constituents. Is there a label for this latter group? They have seemed a tiny and anomalous sub-group within the party this last twenty years but are bexoming more vocal.
    Soft left provincials?
    That'll do. At leaat it'll be clear who we are talking about.
    Tbh, I've always had quite a soft spot for the SLP wing of Lab. But they've been pretty much sidelined since Bryan Gould's unsuccessful tout at the leadership. (For the purposes of this argument, Dagenham is in the provinces).
    The flinter group. *Gets coat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    edited December 2019
    The question is - just what did Labour offer areas like mine ?

    The only thing I can think of that was concrete in their manifesto that could affect Bassetlaw was the following

    i) Redistribution of funds from road to rail - there's a lot more roads than railways here.
    ii) A bit more implied money for the hospital that would be eaten up in the 5% wage increase and 4 day public sector week.
    iii) Implied tax rises/borrowing to fund the WASPI bung and everything else in the manifesto none of which was relevant to rural north Nottinghamshire.

    Edit: Oh and telling us we got the wrong answer in the EU Ref...

  • HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:
    1. HYUFD - sorry if I've just off-topicked you. Fat fingers and now I can't seem to undo it.
    2. The Labour Party appear to be splitting into not two but threewarring factions: the hard left, the Blairites, and the likes of Kinnock, Flint, Mann etc who - while not necessarily leavers themselves, are at least broadly sympathetic to their leave-voting constituents. Is there a label for this latter group? They have seemed a tiny and anomalous sub-group within the party this last twenty years but are bexoming more vocal.
    Soft left provincials?
    Blue labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:
    1. HYUFD - sorry if I've just off-topicked you. Fat fingers and now I can't seem to undo it.
    2. The Labour Party appear to be splitting into not two but threewarring factions: the hard left, the Blairites, and the likes of Kinnock, Flint, Mann etc who - while not necessarily leavers themselves, are at least broadly sympathetic to their leave-voting constituents. Is there a label for this latter group? They have seemed a tiny and anomalous sub-group within the party this last twenty years but are bexoming more vocal.
    Soft left provincials?
    Blue labour.
    Nailed it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Charlie Falconer backing the "anyone but RLB" candidate.
  • Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    Classy.

    Speaking on behalf of those people I know who work with young people.
    I know people who work with young people. They are called teachers.

    There are also people called parents, some of whom seem to think it is acceptable to abdicate their responsibilities to youth outreach workers.
    So would you call scout leaders youth outreach workers? Or DoE volunteers? Or those people who work to assist the 1 in 5 children in this country who identify as young carers? Or in my own case, working with young people in local schools to form peer-groups to work on science projects?

    Or would you say "I covered all of those under teachers".

    Yes, there are parents who abdicate their responsibilities, but there are also parents who need help, and in any case it takes a village to raise a child. Youth outreach is part of that village. If you simply cut the feckless off, you are storing up problems for society in the future.
    It will always be cheaper to help these kids now than to deal with them through the criminal justice system when it's too late to really help them. It's hard to see why supposed fiscal conservatives can't see that.
    It costs more to keep a kid in jail than to send them to Eton, and produces almost as bad outcomes.
  • Roberto1 said:


    Do you think they do realise that? Johnson has vowed no tax rises and higher public spending. Let’s see what happens if he can’t deliver.

    He hasn't vowed no tax rises, he's said no rises in the main three taxes. That's a huge, huge difference.

    Hi, tad confused here. Excuse my ignorance but what are the three main taxes? I assume income tax is one of them and council tax but what is the third? Also I was wondering about income tax, I know the rate is promised to stay the same but will the allowance be the same before you start having to pay tax, as the calculator I used has not been updated as of yet so hoping its the same? I am starting a new job in January and earning more than before (£15000 per year, was only on £11000 in current job) but I just wanted to make sure that the tax allowance is still going to be the same as I will have to pay tax now.



    Thank you for everyones responses! Thats brill if it does rise in April!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    This thread had been

    voted out

  • Just discovered that RLB's first job was in the pawn industry.

    Better than being a youth outreach worker or some similar wank.

    Classy.

    Speaking on behalf of those people I know who work with young people.
    I know people who work with young people. They are called teachers.

    There are also people called parents, some of whom seem to think it is acceptable to abdicate their responsibilities to youth outreach workers.
    So would you call scout leaders youth outreach workers? Or DoE volunteers? Or those people who work to assist the 1 in 5 children in this country who identify as young carers? Or in my own case, working with young people in local schools to form peer-groups to work on science projects?

    Or would you say "I covered all of those under teachers".

    Yes, there are parents who abdicate their responsibilities, but there are also parents who need help, and in any case it takes a village to raise a child. Youth outreach is part of that village. If you simply cut the feckless off, you are storing up problems for society in the future.
    It will always be cheaper to help these kids now than to deal with them through the criminal justice system when it's too late to really help them. It's hard to see why supposed fiscal conservatives can't see that.
    It costs more to keep a kid in jail than to send them to Eton, and produces almost as bad outcomes.
    Quite. But then 'An ounce of prevention' is worth, well, jack squat when you gain more by being tough on crime at the party conference...
This discussion has been closed.