Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
That's my theory too. But the Lib/SDP alliance did very well, in vote share at least when Foot was PM.
While we're about that sort of thing, another theory: Con vote is directly proporrional to how left-wing Labour are perceived to be.
"The Chief Rabbi must be dancing in the street. The pro-Israel lobby won our General Election by lying about Jeremy Corbyn."
Baroness Tonge. They are going to have to create a separate “cross bench” in the Lords to accommodate her, because the others have chucked her out.
On a related (and admittedly provocative, apologies) note....
Thought experiment: if the EHRC investigation comes up with spectacularly damning conclusions - and that's far from being an outside chance at this stage - what practical barriers could prevent the newly-empowered UK Government outlawing the Labour Party as a racist organisation?
The EHCR can raise a prosecution against named officers of an organisation (as they did with the BNP), but I'm not sure they can ban the organisation itself, especially if under new leadership since the investigation.
Any move by a government Minister to ban an opposition party would certainly be subject to judicial review (as it damn well should!), and would probably finish with the minister in question having to resign.
Slightly less controversial (but still obviously wrong) would be a 'reform' of Short Money.
It is rather strange if someone were to suggest you need a northerner to relate to them after a bunch voted for a cartoonish fop from Eton and the south.
Powerful article from Layla Moran. I think she's right that Lab and LD need to work together. What would be really effective is agreement to stand down in particular seats. I hope that those chosen as leaders of both parties are able to coordinate.
Moran working together with Rayner particularly could cause the Tories real problems, spanning a metropolitan and northern working class appeal.
I fully accept that it'd be good if Labour and LibDems (and Greens) reached tactical voting arrangements. But it needs a recognition by both sides that we caused each other problems.
Corbyn was offered that by Unite to Remain but shrugged it.
There were mistakes by both sides.
One of the biggest by the LibDems was scrabbling to drop in a new candidate when the Canterbury candidate withdrew and endorsed the Labour MP. The damage was done by then, and at the last minute they could afford to have let it ride. If they'd had the strategic nous to do this, the Canterbury MP would probably have a slightly larger majority and her convincing win would have established a nugget of goodwill and demonstrated the upside of co-operation.
Instead the LibDems blew the chance and forced someone on a doomed mission to be the replacement candidate, to no benefit to anyone.
When you look at the detail of how the LibDems campaigned, it is littered with misjudgements like that.
Yes. The pressing challenge for the Lib Dems is not so much electing a new leader as having a wholesale clearout of LDHQ.
I thought this anecdote (from Reddit) was telling:
“I live in a Lab/Con battleground constituency. It last flipped from Con to Lab in 2017, and was a rare Lab hold this year (they actually increased their majority).
“The Lab MP is one of those that would fit comfortably into the Lib Dems. Pro Europe, good record on civil liberties re technology.
“We campaigned in the seat, but deliberately targeted conservative-leaning wards in order to lay the groundwork for council elections next year, and to hopefully increase our vote at the Tory expense.
“So what did HQ post to households across the constituency? ‘Labour can’t win here! It’s between the Lib Dem and the Tory!’
Labour has responded to this election with arrogance. The Conservatives, with humility. This is, given the result, extraordinary – and is a reminder of why we won.
Jeremy Corbyn and his acolytes won’t accept that people disliked him and thought that his programme was undeliverable. Boris Johnson, meanwhile, has made clear that those who have – for the first time – voted Conservative must now be convinced they made the right decision.
This is clearly correct. There is no deep bond between the Conservatives and these voters. One must be forged.
I spent the election campaign co-writing the manifesto (a major team effort). The programme focuses on the needs and priorities of the new Conservative voter.
What am I missing? The election is over. The SNP wants independence for Scotland.
They are claiming a mandate - argued for on the basis of stopping the Tories for "independence" - they barely mentioned "independence" in their campaign '.
Absolute load of shit that you've got from yoons on Twitter. They mentioned independence all over their leaflets. Plus, you know, their manifesto.
But not in their Facebook ads until polling day. Funny that.
Health, education and policing are of course all devolved issues so not relevant to Westminster elections.
Albeit sometimes Sturgeon seems to not quite understand this...
Shocking the way Sturgeon kept forcing these issues into discussions when all the media wanted to talk about with her was non devolved stuff.
It's almost like she wants to avoid talking about those subjects.
And a referendum is a great distraction (albeit a single discussion).
Yebbut my post was a response to a suggestion that Sturgeon doesn't quite understand that devolved issues aren't relevant to Westminster elections when in fact every single media interviewer based their questioning of her on those so called irrelevant issues.
Powerful article from Layla Moran. I think she's right that Lab and LD need to work together. What would be really effective is agreement to stand down in particular seats. I hope that those chosen as leaders of both parties are able to coordinate.
Moran working together with Rayner particularly could cause the Tories real problems, spanning a metropolitan and northern working class appeal.
I fully accept that it'd be good if Labour and LibDems (and Greens) reached tactical voting arrangements. But it needs a recognition by both sides that we caused each other problems.
Corbyn was offered that by Unite to Remain but shrugged it.
There were mistakes by both sides.
One of the biggest by the LibDems was scrabbling to drop in a new candidate when the Canterbury candidate withdrew and endorsed the Labour MP. The damage was done by then, and at the last minute they could afford to have let it ride. If they'd had the strategic nous to do this, the Canterbury MP would probably have a slightly larger majority and her convincing win would have established a nugget of goodwill and demonstrated the upside of co-operation.
Instead the LibDems blew the chance and forced someone on a doomed mission to be the replacement candidate, to no benefit to anyone.
When you look at the detail of how the LibDems campaigned, it is littered with misjudgements like that.
Yes. The pressing challenge for the Lib Dems is not so much electing a new leader as having a wholesale clearout of LDHQ.
I thought this anecdote (from Reddit) was telling:
“I live in a Lab/Con battleground constituency. It last flipped from Con to Lab in 2017, and was a rare Lab hold this year (they actually increased their majority).
“The Lab MP is one of those that would fit comfortably into the Lib Dems. Pro Europe, good record on civil liberties re technology.
“We campaigned in the seat, but deliberately targeted conservative-leaning wards in order to lay the groundwork for council elections next year, and to hopefully increase our vote at the Tory expense.
“So what did HQ post to households across the constituency? ‘Labour can’t win here! It’s between the Lib Dem and the Tory!’
“Thanks guys“
Given the LDs probably need to wear different hats in different parts of the country, wouldnt a regional structure make more sense anyway. So SW Libdems could have some different policies to London LDs or Scots LDs.
Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
That's my theory too. But the Lib/SDP alliance did very well, in vote share at least when Foot was PM.
While we're about that sort of thing, another theory: Con vote is directly proporrional to how left-wing Labour are perceived to be.
The trouble is that 1983 was truly exceptional, yet has been allowed to set the narrative. Other elections suggest that when the two main parties are close - 1974, 1997 - the centre party does indeed do better than when the two parties are far apart - 1979, 2019. Further, the centre party does better when the Tory vote share is going down, as I observed at the beginning of the campaign. The trouble this time is that there weren’t many people deserting the Tories, beyond a handful of Remain seats, and thus it was very hard for the LibDems to make progress.
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
Dont worry, he can still enjoy walking on water and the fact his sh*t doesn't stink. He can retire in peace assured, as he already is in his head, of just how morally great he is.
I wonder if others have noted that the Tories could potentially have taken another 20 + seats in iconic areas if the Brexit party had not stood. In many seats if only about 20% of their votes had gone blue the seats would have fallen. Targets for next time?
The killer stat is found in Lord Ashcroft's post election poll. Of those who voted for the BXP in seats they contested (9 out of 10 of which were Labour seats), in a forced 2 way choice 75% thought Johnson would make the best PM compared to 4% for Corbyn. Given such a conclusive split, it is inconceivable that more of those BXP voters would have voted Labour than Conservative had the BXP not stood.
Quite how many seats that would have swung is a moot point. But it's undeniable that the Cons would have picked up some more.
Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
However if the LDs overtook Labour as the main party of the centre-left they would win the most seats of all
I'll bow to others in their polling expertise, but this sounds like it is setting itself up to be a voodoo poll.
It's a survey, not a poll.
I would have thought there would be the same concerns though? 'A survey of self-selecting friends-of-friends showed that...'?
The survey starts with demographic questions so they can (try to) make it representative of the expat population.
A 'voodoo poll' is typically a one-question "survey" which shows "95% of (Sun/Mirror) readers think (Corbyn/Johnson) is a plonker" which makes no attempt to achieve a representative base.
Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
However if the LDs overtook Labour as the main party of the centre-left they would win the most seats of all
IF I hadn't missed the boat-train from Victoria I would have been the first to conquer Everest.
I dont like the man but fair play if he managed it. More likely we just get an updated crap system.
Military procurement is wasteful and corrupt without a doubt but trying to reform it without hitting the underlying issue (specifying, designing and building military equipment is really, really hard) won't fix anything.
There are all kinds of fundamental issues to address.
Yes you can go buy proven off the shelf kit but that both sacrifices your domestic industry (which is surely of strategic interest to maintain if you have any hope of being considered a Power) and ensures you are at least a generation behind.
Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
However if the LDs overtook Labour as the main party of the centre-left they would win the most seats of all
Before this election that would have been my thought and what I would have suggested the LDs aim for. If they cant make any headway under Corbyn, anti semitism and Brexit, its hard to see the circumstances when that breakthrough happens though.
Maybe I am being too pessimistic but reality suggests hard left Labour damages LDs as much as it does Labour.
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
'Appen you're right?
My thick Birmingham accent has followed me like a millstone. On arrival at Grammar School I was greeted with a 'you must be very poor and ill-educated' by a particularly posh boy. He may have gone on to be a Wall Street high flyer, but I have never found myself applying for bankruptcy via the London Gazette - which he did.
Worrying about competency rather than how someone sounds should be the issue.
I'll bow to others in their polling expertise, but this sounds like it is setting itself up to be a voodoo poll.
It's a survey, not a poll.
I would have thought there would be the same concerns though? 'A survey of self-selecting friends-of-friends showed that...'?
Given that Universities are overwhelmingly staffed with left leaning 'academics' especially in this zone I'm not hopeful their report will be very rigorous.
Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
However if the LDs overtook Labour as the main party of the centre-left they would win the most seats of all
That begs the question whether the LibDems are centre-left. Most recently, they have: 1) served in coalition with the Conservatives 2) refused to contemplate supporting a Labour government 3) (from Ed Davey) announced economic principles to the right of the Conservatives
This evidence points to the LibDems being a centre-right if not right-wing party.
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
I’m no supporter of Scottish Independence but the rank hypocrisy from some of you Tories is something to behold. At least @Philip_Thompson is consistent in his beliefs on self-determination.
Philip Thompson is a libertarian not a conservative
You say that as if you think it matters. The Conservative Party is a broad church, only that way can it achieve 45% of all votes cast across the UK.
I am quite happy to be a libertarian not a small-c conservative within the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party is not a home for small-c conservatives alone and its sister party in Australia is the Liberal Party. Past and present the Conservative Party has been home for many libertarians - as voters, supporters, members, MPs and even PMs.
Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
However if the LDs overtook Labour as the main party of the centre-left they would win the most seats of all
That begs the question whether the LibDems are centre-left. Most recently, they have: 1) served in coalition with the Conservatives 2) refused to contemplate supporting a Labour government 3) (from Ed Davey) announced economic principles to the right of the Conservatives
This evidence points to the LibDems being a centre-right if not right-wing party.
Under Layla Moran they would certainly be a centre left party, under Ed Davey more of an Orange Book party again
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
OUCH.
I went to the same comp as Kinnock. It was a grammar when he was there in the 50s. It was a bit tastier when I went there in the late 80s and 90s.
I'll bow to others in their polling expertise, but this sounds like it is setting itself up to be a voodoo poll.
It's a survey, not a poll.
I would have thought there would be the same concerns though? 'A survey of self-selecting friends-of-friends showed that...'?
Given that Universities are overwhelmingly staffed with left leaning 'academics' especially in this zone I'm not hopeful their report will be very rigorous.
Then when it is published, their methodology can be scrutinised and we can see where they have fiddled the algebra. Or are we just shooting the messenger anyway?
Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
However if the LDs overtook Labour as the main party of the centre-left they would win the most seats of all
Before this election that would have been my thought and what I would have suggested the LDs aim for. If they cant make any headway under Corbyn, anti semitism and Brexit, its hard to see the circumstances when that breakthrough happens though.
Maybe I am being too pessimistic but reality suggests hard left Labour damages LDs as much as it does Labour.
If Labour sticks with the hard left eventually centre left voters will go elsewhere
Very understandably, triumphant Tories have forgotten that Johnson has told a lot of people a lot of lies over the last few months. His ability to navigate a way out of the homes he has dug for himself are most likely what will decide the 2023 election. If the election is in 2024 we’ll know he’s in serious trouble.
I am old enough to recall articles in the Sunday Telegraph circa 1987 pondering who would be Tory Prime Minister for the 2003 and 2008 GEs after Mrs Thatcher's inevitable retirement in 1999. History will repeat itself. Tories are again realising they are invincible.
My biggest takeaway from this election is the collapse of the LDs. I had assumed that with Labour consumed by unfettered Marxism the LDs would thrive. Wrong again!
It would be nice for Labour to get their house in some small semblance of order so that when Johnson inevitably unravels there is something modestly competent to take the wheel.
Perversely LDs win the most seats when Labour are centrist. The two party system is brutal to the LDs when Labour are hard left. Many natural liberals and centrists will vote Tory rather than LD when offered Corbyn, Foot et al.
However if the LDs overtook Labour as the main party of the centre-left they would win the most seats of all
Before this election that would have been my thought and what I would have suggested the LDs aim for. If they cant make any headway under Corbyn, anti semitism and Brexit, its hard to see the circumstances when that breakthrough happens though.
Maybe I am being too pessimistic but reality suggests hard left Labour damages LDs as much as it does Labour.
If Labour sticks with the hard left eventually centre left voters will go elsewhere
If they didnt this time I'm not sure they ever will.
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
I'll bow to others in their polling expertise, but this sounds like it is setting itself up to be a voodoo poll.
It's a survey, not a poll.
I would have thought there would be the same concerns though? 'A survey of self-selecting friends-of-friends showed that...'?
Given that Universities are overwhelmingly staffed with left leaning 'academics' especially in this zone I'm not hopeful their report will be very rigorous.
Then when it is published, their methodology can be scrutinised and we can see where they have fiddled the algebra. Or are we just shooting the messenger anyway?
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
We could keep it in the family- Steve Kinnock.
I think hed be good in a senior role, party chairman or mid level shadow secretary type but doubt he is suited for this leadership role, needs to be a bruiser, good in a scrap, i.e. Jess Phillips.
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
Which is why Britain is fucked. Or England at least. Nicola Sturgeon talks like a normal working class central belt Scot and has no problem getting elected. The cultural inferiority complex of the English working class is a pathetic sight.
Oh for fucks sake. I have just read an extract of Cummings blog about defence spending. He's a fucking moron - he's going to reform Jack Shit and deeply harm Britain's armed forces.
He thinks defence is easy and everyone is just morons.
When I was at Cardiff in the mid 80s (along with Welshowl of this parish) we had, for a year, the only Conservative run students union in the country. Some of the lecturers at the time tried to block the Union from having access to rooms and facilities.
Oh for fucks sake. I have just read an extract of Cummings blog about defence spending. He's a fucking moron - he's going to reform Jack Shit and deeply harm Britain's armed forces.
He thinks defence is easy and everyone is just morons.
Who will run? That is the question. So far I think we have only RLB and Lisa Nandy confirmed -- DYOR as I am not following this particularly closely -- but prices will change as others declare their interest or rule themselves out. I guess the other question is whether you want to be adjusting your position over Christmas or would rather take the £925.24 to spend on extra baubles: which is better for family harmony?
Labour has responded to this election with arrogance. The Conservatives, with humility...
Judging by the comments here, the humility is not exactly unalloyed.
Reaction of supporters is not the same as reaction of leaderships.
The tory leadership is currently saying some sensible things to not seem hubristic, though time will tell on that one .
Besides there's a difference between celebrating and arrogance. I think Tory supporters having won our greatest victory that I can remember are allowed a couple of celebrations. The idea of not counting chickens and not being arrogant pre-election was deeply embedded within our psyche.
Let’s face it, if Johnson’s plans for govt are anyway close to what’s been trailed over the last few days then a reasonable chunk of the Tory party is going to start getting a bit uncomfortable.
The Tory way to revive “forgotten towns” would be to revitalise them by drawing inward investment, building up training and skills and generally giving people a stake in the success of the economy and private industry. Not by piling in Government/taxpayers money from a magic money tree they used to claim didn’t exist. Obviously there is a potential role for kickstarting things, but not putting money in on a permanent basis to increase dependence on the state.
Thus far we’re getting a lot of impression of the latter rather than the former. And if so they’ll be a price to pay.
Don't worry, it's all hot air. By the time the Tories have delivered the tax cuts demanded by the donor class these towns will be lucky to get a new roundabout.
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
Not sure that's the case.
Brexit being done is clearly not going to make a huge difference to most people's lives, and most analysts have said that the Tory manifesto "bakes in" austerity.
So, in five years time the Tories will be 15 years in power, and very little of that time will have felt positive. Brexit related voting could unwind very quickly once it's no longer on the "to do" list.
Who will run? That is the question. So far I think we have only RLB and Lisa Nandy confirmed -- DYOR as I am not following this particularly closely -- but prices will change as others declare their interest or rule themselves out. I guess the other question is whether you want to be adjusting your position over Christmas or would rather take the £925.24 to spend on extra baubles: which is better for family harmony?
i'd be tempted for a few lays there, Dan Jarvis, Yvette Cooper and Clive Lewis being the three obvious ones.
Powerful article from Layla Moran. I think she's right that Lab and LD need to work together. What would be really effective is agreement to stand down in particular seats. I hope that those chosen as leaders of both parties are able to coordinate.
I don't think so. Indeed it makes me suspicious of her political antennae. The next few years need to be at ground level, building up councillors and organisation. We are going to be bystanders on Brexit and Parliament for the next few years, though being untainted by that may well be a good thing.
I like Jess Philips and she is the most centrist of the mooted candidates, but she did take Birmingham Yardley off the Lib Dems.
What leverage have the lib dems got anymore? Very little apart from in a small golden triangle of South west london... Let them.declare UDI there if they want.
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
Not sure that's the case.
Brexit being done is clearly not going to make a huge difference to most people's lives, and most analysts have said that the Tory manifesto "bakes in" austerity.
So, in five years time the Tories will be 15 years in power, and very little of that time will have felt positive. Brexit related voting could unwind very quickly once it's no longer on the "to do" list.
The "bakes in" austerity comment was bull using a false baseline for comparison. They said that austerity would be baked in not by comparing spending over the next five years to spending now, but spending over the next five years to spending in 2010.
In 2010 the government was overspending! It is not a reasonable baseline to compare to. Yes there has been austerity in many departments other than the NHS over the past decade but that was necessary due to the overspending in 2010. If austerity is indeed over then that means that spending will start to rise from now - not that we will suddenly be overspending like we were a decade ago that left the country on the brink of ruin.
Over the next few years so long as the country doesn't enter recession the government can increase spending in moderation without jeopardising the books - but it can't undo the past decades austerity returning in one bound to overspending and making the past decades austerity pointless.
Powerful article from Layla Moran. I think she's right that Lab and LD need to work together. What would be really effective is agreement to stand down in particular seats. I hope that those chosen as leaders of both parties are able to coordinate.
Moran working together with Rayner particularly could cause the Tories real problems, spanning a metropolitan and northern working class appeal.
The article is fine until it gets to practical examples, all of which involve other parties standing aside for the LibDems and the "hatred" of Labour supporters in not doing so. There are far more cases where the LibDems continued to claim that they were the only chance of beating the Tories when in reality they were obviously just risking letting the Tories in - the case I know best is Portsmouth South, where the LibDems were still pushing this nonsense up to polling day and Labour just scraped in.
I fully accept that it'd be good if Labour and LibDems (and Greens) reached tactical voting arrangements. But it needs a recognition by both sides that we caused each other problems.
Corbyn was offered that by Unite to Remain but shrugged it.
There were mistakes by both sides.
One of the biggest by the LibDems was scrabbling to drop in a new candidate when the Canterbury candidate withdrew and endorsed the Labour MP. The damage was done by then, and at the last minute they could afford to have let it ride. If they'd had the strategic nous to do this, the Canterbury MP would probably have a slightly larger majority and her convincing win would have established a nugget of goodwill and demonstrated the upside of co-operation.
Instead the LibDems blew the chance and forced someone on a doomed mission to be the replacement candidate, to no benefit to anyone.
When you look at the detail of how the LibDems campaigned, it is littered with misjudgements like that.
We know that Lib Dem activists refused to leave Kingston to come over and campaign for Tom Brake who.lost by 600 instead preferring to rack up a massive majority for Ed Davey..the tribalism within hurt them there.
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
Not sure that's the case.
Brexit being done is clearly not going to make a huge difference to most people's lives, and most analysts have said that the Tory manifesto "bakes in" austerity.
So, in five years time the Tories will be 15 years in power, and very little of that time will have felt positive. Brexit related voting could unwind very quickly once it's no longer on the "to do" list.
The "bakes in" austerity comment was bull using a false baseline for comparison. They said that austerity would be baked in not by comparing spending over the next five years to spending now, but spending over the next five years to spending in 2010.
In 2010 the government was overspending! It is not a reasonable baseline to compare to. Yes there has been austerity in many departments other than the NHS over the past decade but that was necessary due to the overspending in 2010. If austerity is indeed over then that means that spending will start to rise from now - not that we will suddenly be overspending like we were a decade ago that left the country on the brink of ruin.
Over the next few years so long as the country doesn't enter recession the government can increase spending in moderation without jeopardising the books - but it can't undo the past decades austerity returning in one bound to overspending and making the past decades austerity pointless.
I disagree with your economics, but that's irrelevant to the point, and we'll just get into politics if we go down that route.
My point is that after 10 years of austerity, will five years of "moderation" be enough?
If Rebecca Long-Bailey is elected the new Labour leader, Boris Johnson will think all his Christmases have come at once, especially if Richard Burgon is elected as her deputy. The film title "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind.
A week ago most of the media was trying to explain why the polls were incorrect and Boris would be lucky to get a minority government. Today Swinson has gone, Corbyn is going and in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and Sinn Fein are coming under increasing pressure to re-establish Stormont because if the Sec of St for NI imposes new elections, both parties could be HUGE losers. I hadn't realised that SF had lost 25% of its vote share on Thursday.
I'll bow to others in their polling expertise, but this sounds like it is setting itself up to be a voodoo poll.
It's a survey, not a poll.
I would have thought there would be the same concerns though? 'A survey of self-selecting friends-of-friends showed that...'?
Given that Universities are overwhelmingly staffed with left leaning 'academics' especially in this zone I'm not hopeful their report will be very rigorous.
Then when it is published, their methodology can be scrutinised and we can see where they have fiddled the algebra. Or are we just shooting the messenger anyway?
No - I did the survey in good faith. I point out the premise. I hope it simply records the reality of the UK emigrants. We will see.
“The People’s Government” is a bit of a sinister phrase. The sort of thing I’d expect Commie Corbyn and Co to be using if they’d won!
The thing to remember is that when a phrase like that is chosen it is to distract from the fact that the government is actually doing the exact opposite. They would hardly call it "the government whose victory was paid for by the donor class and billionaire owned media who will now deliver for those who fund it" would they?
This is not a very polite thing to say, and I say it as a provincial person with a very working class accent myself, but Jess Phillips, Angela Rayner and Rebecca Long-Bailey sound too 'common' to get elected as PM.
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
The audition is for leader of the Labour party not PM. The next leaders job is the Kinnock role, not the Smith/Blair role.
Not sure that's the case.
Brexit being done is clearly not going to make a huge difference to most people's lives, and most analysts have said that the Tory manifesto "bakes in" austerity.
So, in five years time the Tories will be 15 years in power, and very little of that time will have felt positive. Brexit related voting could unwind very quickly once it's no longer on the "to do" list.
The "bakes in" austerity comment was bull using a false baseline for comparison. They said that austerity would be baked in not by comparing spending over the next five years to spending now, but spending over the next five years to spending in 2010.
In 2010 the government was overspending! It is not a reasonable baseline to compare to. Yes there has been austerity in many departments other than the NHS over the past decade but that was necessary due to the overspending in 2010. If austerity is indeed over then that means that spending will start to rise from now - not that we will suddenly be overspending like we were a decade ago that left the country on the brink of ruin.
Over the next few years so long as the country doesn't enter recession the government can increase spending in moderation without jeopardising the books - but it can't undo the past decades austerity returning in one bound to overspending and making the past decades austerity pointless.
I disagree with your economics, but that's irrelevant to the point, and we'll just get into politics if we go down that route.
My point is that after 10 years of austerity, will five years of "moderation" be enough?
That's the challenge.
It has to be enough. It's what the country can afford.
The past austerity has already happened so moderation from here will be an increase. Moderation after 2010 would have felt like austerity. As it's all about expectations.
There's an old expression that goes along the lines of: Income £1000, expenses £999, result happiness. Income £1000, expenses £1001, result misery. Small changes can make a big difference.
It has to be enough. It's what the country can afford.
The past austerity has already happened so moderation from here will be an increase. Moderation after 2010 would have felt like austerity. As it's all about expectations.
There's an old expression that goes along the lines of: Income £1000, expenses £999, result happiness. Income £1000, expenses £1001, result misery. Small changes can make a big difference.
"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."
UK composite PMI index declines to 48.5 in December. Apart from the temporary drop in July 2016 that's the weakest since April 2009. And no, it's not worse in the euro area, their composite PMI is unchanged at 50.6. As the UK economy heads for recession, the government doubles down on its commitment to exit the transition period at the end of next year and to seek regulatory divergence from the EU. The pivot to soft Brexit is for the birds, next year is going to be brutal.
The truth is I can't see anyone in Labour beating Boris. Everyone keeps underestimating Boris, and even after they were completely wrong on the result (expecting it to be close) they still think Boris is rubbish. He isn't. He is highly intelligent is able to win his audience over whether it be for London or Labour working class voters. My first piece of advice to Labour is to stop underestimating him and his support. Do that and you *might* just might have a chance.
I wonder if others have noted that the Tories could potentially have taken another 20 + seats in iconic areas if the Brexit party had not stood. In many seats if only about 20% of their votes had gone blue the seats would have fallen. Targets for next time?
The killer stat is found in Lord Ashcroft's post election poll. Of those who voted for the BXP in seats they contested (9 out of 10 of which were Labour seats), in a forced 2 way choice 75% thought Johnson would make the best PM compared to 4% for Corbyn. Given such a conclusive split, it is inconceivable that more of those BXP voters would have voted Labour than Conservative had the BXP not stood.
Quite how many seats that would have swung is a moot point. But it's undeniable that the Cons would have picked up some more.
Look at Mansfield. No Brexit Party because the Tories nicked it in 2017. This time, an avalanche to the blues.
A Brexit Party candidate meant many didn't have to weigh up the Corbyn v Johnson decision. There's plenty of evidence of how that choice would have gone if forced.
The truth is I can't see anyone in Labour beating Boris. Everyone keeps underestimating Boris, and even after they were completely wrong on the result (expecting it to be close) they still think Boris is rubbish. He isn't. He is highly intelligent is able to win his audience over whether it be for London or Labour working class voters. My first piece of advice to Labour is to stop underestimating him and his support. Do that and you *might* just might have a chance.
I think of Boris as Rudolph the Rednosed Reindeer after his re-rating over the past 4 days.
Alternatively, He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy, no hang on ...
I wonder if others have noted that the Tories could potentially have taken another 20 + seats in iconic areas if the Brexit party had not stood. In many seats if only about 20% of their votes had gone blue the seats would have fallen. Targets for next time?
The killer stat is found in Lord Ashcroft's post election poll. Of those who voted for the BXP in seats they contested (9 out of 10 of which were Labour seats), in a forced 2 way choice 75% thought Johnson would make the best PM compared to 4% for Corbyn. Given such a conclusive split, it is inconceivable that more of those BXP voters would have voted Labour than Conservative had the BXP not stood.
Quite how many seats that would have swung is a moot point. But it's undeniable that the Cons would have picked up some more.
Look at Mansfield. No Brexit Party because the Tories nicked it in 2017. This time, an avalanche to the blues.
A Brexit Party candidate meant many didn't have to weigh up the Corbyn v Johnson decision. There's plenty of evidence of how that choice would have gone if forced.
Look at Hartlepool - that would have been a Tory gain was it not for the BXP.
If Rebecca Long-Bailey is elected the new Labour leader, Boris Johnson will think all his Christmases have come at once, especially if Richard Burgon is elected as her deputy. The film title "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind.
A week ago most of the media was trying to explain why the polls were incorrect and Boris would be lucky to get a minority government. Today Swinson has gone, Corbyn is going and in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and Sinn Fein are coming under increasing pressure to re-establish Stormont because if the Sec of St for NI imposes new elections, both parties could be HUGE losers. I hadn't realised that SF had lost 25% of its vote share on Thursday.
What they need is a sensible grey hair like Michael Howard to be leader for a few years, to put them back on the right track.
The reality is all the sensible ones will thought of as Tory traitors by the Momentum/SWP/RCP infiltration gang that now control Labour.
If Rebecca Long-Bailey is elected the new Labour leader, Boris Johnson will think all his Christmases have come at once, especially if Richard Burgon is elected as her deputy. The film title "Dumb and Dumber" comes to mind.
A week ago most of the media was trying to explain why the polls were incorrect and Boris would be lucky to get a minority government. Today Swinson has gone, Corbyn is going and in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and Sinn Fein are coming under increasing pressure to re-establish Stormont because if the Sec of St for NI imposes new elections, both parties could be HUGE losers. I hadn't realised that SF had lost 25% of its vote share on Thursday.
What they need is a sensible grey hair like Michael Howard to be leader for a few years, to put them back on the right track.
The reality is all the sensible ones will thought of as Tory traitors by the Momentum/SWP/RCP infiltration gang that now control Labour.
At least they'd get it over with at the start, unlike the BJ party who 22 years after he left the crease now consider sensible grey haired Johnny Major a traitor.
Comments
I'm not sure it's the first, the latter is sadly very likely.
While we're about that sort of thing, another theory: Con vote is directly proporrional to how left-wing Labour are perceived to be.
Any move by a government Minister to ban an opposition party would certainly be subject to judicial review (as it damn well should!), and would probably finish with the minister in question having to resign.
Slightly less controversial (but still obviously wrong) would be a 'reform' of Short Money.
I thought this anecdote (from Reddit) was telling:
“I live in a Lab/Con battleground constituency. It last flipped from Con to Lab in 2017, and was a rare Lab hold this year (they actually increased their majority).
“The Lab MP is one of those that would fit comfortably into the Lib Dems. Pro Europe, good record on civil liberties re technology.
“We campaigned in the seat, but deliberately targeted conservative-leaning wards in order to lay the groundwork for council elections next year, and to hopefully increase our vote at the Tory expense.
“So what did HQ post to households across the constituency? ‘Labour can’t win here! It’s between the Lib Dem and the Tory!’
“Thanks guys“
Jeremy Corbyn and his acolytes won’t accept that people disliked him and thought that his programme was undeliverable. Boris Johnson, meanwhile, has made clear that those who have – for the first time – voted Conservative must now be convinced they made the right decision.
This is clearly correct. There is no deep bond between the Conservatives and these voters. One must be forged.
I spent the election campaign co-writing the manifesto (a major team effort). The programme focuses on the needs and priorities of the new Conservative voter.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/12/rachel-wolf-i-co-wrote-this-conservative-manifesto-and-so-can-say-that-its-focus-was-on-neither-the-rich-nor-the-poor.html
People with our accents won't get to be PM in the UK.
Quite how many seats that would have swung is a moot point. But it's undeniable that the Cons would have picked up some more.
A 'voodoo poll' is typically a one-question "survey" which shows "95% of (Sun/Mirror) readers think (Corbyn/Johnson) is a plonker" which makes no attempt to achieve a representative base.
https://twitter.com/CardiffUniCons/status/1206148265152073730?s=20
There are all kinds of fundamental issues to address.
Yes you can go buy proven off the shelf kit but that both sacrifices your domestic industry (which is surely of strategic interest to maintain if you have any hope of being considered a Power) and ensures you are at least a generation behind.
Maybe I am being too pessimistic but reality suggests hard left Labour damages LDs as much as it does Labour.
My thick Birmingham accent has followed me like a millstone. On arrival at Grammar School I was greeted with a 'you must be very poor and ill-educated' by a particularly posh boy. He may have gone on to be a Wall Street high flyer, but I have never found myself applying for bankruptcy via the London Gazette - which he did.
Worrying about competency rather than how someone sounds should be the issue.
1) served in coalition with the Conservatives
2) refused to contemplate supporting a Labour government
3) (from Ed Davey) announced economic principles to the right of the Conservatives
This evidence points to the LibDems being a centre-right if not right-wing party.
I am quite happy to be a libertarian not a small-c conservative within the Conservative Party. The Conservative Party is not a home for small-c conservatives alone and its sister party in Australia is the Liberal Party. Past and present the Conservative Party has been home for many libertarians - as voters, supporters, members, MPs and even PMs.
I went to the same comp as Kinnock. It was a grammar when he was there in the 50s. It was a bit tastier when I went there in the late 80s and 90s.
I'd lay Cooper to 0.
He thinks defence is easy and everyone is just morons.
The tory leadership is currently saying some sensible things to not seem hubristic, though time will tell on that one .
https://insideevs.com/news/387400/bmw-group-secured-lithium-supplies/
https://twitter.com/oldscotbooks/status/1205972356272992257?s=20
Brexit being done is clearly not going to make a huge difference to most people's lives, and most analysts have said that the Tory manifesto "bakes in" austerity.
So, in five years time the Tories will be 15 years in power, and very little of that time will have felt positive. Brexit related voting could unwind very quickly once it's no longer on the "to do" list.
Very little apart from in a small golden triangle of South west london...
Let them.declare UDI there if they want.
In 2010 the government was overspending! It is not a reasonable baseline to compare to. Yes there has been austerity in many departments other than the NHS over the past decade but that was necessary due to the overspending in 2010. If austerity is indeed over then that means that spending will start to rise from now - not that we will suddenly be overspending like we were a decade ago that left the country on the brink of ruin.
Over the next few years so long as the country doesn't enter recession the government can increase spending in moderation without jeopardising the books - but it can't undo the past decades austerity returning in one bound to overspending and making the past decades austerity pointless.
https://youtu.be/TCknmnySE-s
My point is that after 10 years of austerity, will five years of "moderation" be enough?
That's the challenge.
A week ago most of the media was trying to explain why the polls were incorrect and Boris would be lucky to get a minority government. Today Swinson has gone, Corbyn is going and in Northern Ireland Arlene Foster and Sinn Fein are coming under increasing pressure to re-establish Stormont because if the Sec of St for NI imposes new elections, both parties could be HUGE losers. I hadn't realised that SF had lost 25% of its vote share on Thursday.
https://twitter.com/aaronbell4nul/status/1206483410274988033?s=21
The past austerity has already happened so moderation from here will be an increase. Moderation after 2010 would have felt like austerity. As it's all about expectations.
There's an old expression that goes along the lines of: Income £1000, expenses £999, result happiness. Income £1000, expenses £1001, result misery. Small changes can make a big difference.
Dickens, David Copperfield, Mr Micawber.
A Brexit Party candidate meant many didn't have to weigh up the Corbyn v Johnson decision. There's plenty of evidence of how that choice would have gone if forced.
"My shortwave radio still speaks of freedom
edward lucas
Devices that can’t be hacked or traced are precious to those who live under repressive regimes"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/my-shortwave-radio-still-speaks-of-freedom-czltrn3rk
Alternatively, He's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy, no hang on ...
The reality is all the sensible ones will thought of as Tory traitors by the Momentum/SWP/RCP infiltration gang that now control Labour.
Amazing