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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebecca Long-Bailey soars to a 32% chance in the Corbyn successor betting
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Bless.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-set-replaced-new-21103949
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7794535/UKs-youngest-MP-Nadia-Whittome-23-pledges-donate-huge-slice-80-000-pay-charity.html
And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.
So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
But the membership are mad and basically have no interest in winning power.
My guess is Lisa Nandy.
Cooper is too tired and is tainted with Remain Chicanery, and Phillips is too divisive, empty-headed and opinionated.
Angela Rayner is good, but I think Lisa Nandy could be better.
(At the last Welsh Labour leadership elections, the potential leader and the potential deputy that the opposition parties feared the most both trailed in last).
She does human.
The rest? Nah. I'm not even sure RLB is human. No evidence so far.
With any other Tory PM the road back for Labour could be difficult and long. Don't forget Boris Johnson is now our PM, his unpredictability is such that Labour's fortunes could change for the better in a heartbeat.
This has been such a trauma, any party suggesting a revisit and a new referendum, will be punished, most severely, at the polls. This is simply the case, because it is human nature. The memories have to fade for a generation before we can even think about a reversal.
If Remainers were sensible they would now be quietly machinating for UK entry into EEA/EFTA. That is much more do-able, and, crucially, would not need a 2nd ref.
Personally, I like Cooper's demure and bet on her the time she stood.
Let's make it three more terms out of office rather than the usual two.
Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
I have been wittering on about anyone is better than Corbyn. In Burgon, I think you have found someone worse.
Nandy fecked up over Brexit, but the list of politicians who fecked up over Brexit is truly enormous.
cruel, but
hahahahaha
They were as subtle though as a turd in a punchbowl. Their duplicity had been visible to all who voted to Leave. No doubt some Remainers were embarrassed at their antics too. Thursday was the judgment passed on their desperate measures.
The irony is that the consequence of their efforts is a Europhile-free majority that allows Boris to do anything he wants with the EU,
Lollercoster.
The value must be on John Bercow at 1000/1 (12 quid if you're quick)
"By 2020, these will hover to the front of voters' minds and they will vote appropriately, dealing the Labour party a rout from which there is no promise of recovery."
https://www.ft.com/content/67e4e6a8-0e01-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product
It's an electorate that George Galloway would have had a serious chance with if he was still a Labour MP.
@rpjs
Fair enough. As it happens I do. And French. And I’ve lived in both. And my career has been export manufacturing. And yes both places are great, and I have a huge amount of affection for both countries. They are like us, good bits, bad bits, infuriating bits, charming bits.
But I’m still a Brexiteer because I believe in solid friendship between good neighbours but still controlling our destiny in a democratic fashion. There is no European demos. So you can’t have a democracy.
Sorry that’s my view. I don’t think it’s unreasonable, but I do regret being vilified for it by many for three and a half years.
I'm a PB Tory and I'm here to help
It just won't happen for a decade, probably two, at the very least.
The biggest obstacle for Labour over decades has been the memories of the 1970's, Labour doesn't need to saddle itself with the threat that they will repeat the 2010's if they come to power.
The Europe issue is has just been a very bad experience for the electorate, I don't think they want to re-open the wounds with Rejoin.
It ain't my party, but let's try and keep some accuracy around.
If you have detailed membership breakdown figures, then let's see them.
If not, then why persist in this odd claim? It could lead to some rather unsavoury speculation about the reasons.
"The 'Distracted Boyfriend' Meme's Photographer Explains All
Antonio Guillem didn't mean to go viral. In fact, he only just found out what a meme is."
https://www.wired.com/story/distracted-boyfriend-meme-photographer-interview/
In topic: I just laugh at the Tories being "afraid" of Jess Phillips. She would actually end the Labour party if she were to become leader. A more self righteous twat I cannot think of.
If he throws himself as deputy behind Rayner or Nandy, then I think that is a winning team.
So I guess its Rayner.
However I don't think any of them could beat Boris, in fact given the current weak Labour field to succeed Corbyn and the fact Umunna and Berger failed to win their seats leaving a weak LD field to succeed Swinson too it looks like the Leader of the Opposition for the next 5 years in reality could well be Nicola Sturgeon
Not in the real world.
The candidates I'd really fear are those closest to Blair who have built up good connections where it matters - e.g. outside the Momentum bubble. Cooper, Kendall. McDonagh etc. But nobody like that is going to stand, and if they did, they'd lose badly in the leadership election, so we have nothing to worry about on that front.
A majority of Labour voters definetly live in the south of england now and the selectorate should reflect that with an added edge to it's most politisised elements and areas namingly London and Student areas.
That's how Corbyn won in 2015 and 2016 the same way George Galloway won By-elections, he got Socialists, Students, and Ethnic Minorities.
In the next election Farage might not field a party.
Can Labour still hold them if they become the party of Rejoin ?
Starmer was considered the best potential leader - and he's clearly not a Corbynite.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/22/corbyns-reputation-takes-big-hit-labour-members-mo
As is normal with a majority govt, most of the struggle in the next 5 years will be within the Tory party; it'll be fascinating to see how this pans out. But there is of course a role for a LOTO in channeling national sentiment in regard to that struggle. Corbyn did that part of his job very badly. Maybe/hopefully the new leader will be better at it.
I write about what I am interested in and what I hope others will find interesting.
I am not remotely holy - far too much of a sinner. I’d need banks of wardrobes for all the skeletons in my cupboard.
On topic if Labour are simply going to rush in to replace Corbyn with another Corbynista - a particularly charmless and not very bright one at that - they may as well not bother. There is an utter paucity of talent.
Frankly, anyone in the Shadow Cabinet should be ruled out since they were collectively responsible for:-
(a) the manifesto;
(b) putting Corbyn forward as a candidate for PM;
(c) not doing anything about the anti-semitism issue.
That leaves Nandy, Phillips, Creasey (but only just a mother so most unlikely) or Hilary Benn, who might do the Kinnock role if that is what Labour wanted which, sadly, they don’t.
The only senior person untainted by Corbynism is Sadiq Khan but he is not an MP and so-so.
They’re a bit stuffed, frankly. I don’t in any case really see why a party which has turned into a mixture of the SWP and Respect should survive.
https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1206158521169055744
If you add Brexit related indecisiveness you get 57%.
So RLB it is then.