politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
Comments
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Yes, I'm sure the vast majority of voters voted precisely for the reasons you described.EPG said:
I'm sorry you feel that way, but your prime minister does whip up disdain of the weak to empower the strong, so if you are going to criticise criticism of it, then own it. Tell us how funny is is to banter about "bumboys" or how Muslim women looking like postboxes is accurate and necessary.RobD said:
That post was so much better (relatively speaking) before that unnecessary edit about piccaninnies etc.EPG said:
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.1 -
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.0 -
Plus Sam Tarry + Zarah Sultana. There's easily enough to get a left wing MP on the ballot.Endillion said:
ButlerCorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Webbe
Carden
Ali
Huq
Osamor
Siddiq
Er, Hodge, maybe?0 -
The polls were showing only a small swing to the tories in the west Midlands. Looks like that's what happened. Not sure why thoughalex_ said:
Two universities. Although W&L clearly was a sterling effort despite that.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.0 -
Hope you never observed that people voting for Labour were voting for an anti-Semite.RobD said:
Yes, I'm sure the vast majority of voters voted precisely for the reasons you described.EPG said:
I'm sorry you feel that way, but your prime minister does whip up disdain of the weak to empower the strong, so if you are going to criticise criticism of it, then own it. Tell us how funny is is to banter about "bumboys" or how Muslim women looking like postboxes is accurate and necessary.RobD said:
That post was so much better (relatively speaking) before that unnecessary edit about piccaninnies etc.EPG said:
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.0 -
Chester has a university as well, don’t forget.another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Chester
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.0 -
Since the coalition days I've never trusted the tories. They are duplicitous bastards who will sell their own grannies down the river. I even heard one during the campaign taunting the libdems over tuition fees, when it was supposed to be their government policy anyway!MarqueeMark said:
"The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!"ClippP said:
The real problem with the Coalition was that Clegg was so keen to prove to the world that coalition government could work, that he sacrificed everything to this objective. The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!AnneJGP said:
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor?ydoethur said:
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.Ratters said:Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not?
Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP.
So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
The Tories were ruthless and untrustworthy. And so were Labour - even campaigning against the Coalition on policies which had been in their own manifesto.
All is not lost. If I have placed AnneJGP correctly, the Lib Dems were second in this election in her constituency, and she has a good Lib Dem run council.
Bleat bleat bleat bleat bleat......
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She's talking a lot of sense here. A stitch up would be a disaster.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1205902209835261953
Streeting + Phillips
Don't know much about her but I hope she runs (she's also my best betting result that's realistic).1 -
I actually never did. I wouldn't be surprised if the myopic focus of the left on these issues cost them more votes than it gained them. People care about their livelihood, services, etc, not what was said twenty or so years ago that has been blown all out of proportion.EPG said:
Hope you never observed that people voting for Labour were voting for an anti-Semite.RobD said:
Yes, I'm sure the vast majority of voters voted precisely for the reasons you described.EPG said:
I'm sorry you feel that way, but your prime minister does whip up disdain of the weak to empower the strong, so if you are going to criticise criticism of it, then own it. Tell us how funny is is to banter about "bumboys" or how Muslim women looking like postboxes is accurate and necessary.RobD said:
That post was so much better (relatively speaking) before that unnecessary edit about piccaninnies etc.EPG said:
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.0 -
Yes, this was the joke*.ydoethur said:
Hodge was of course the person who effectively got Corbyn his seat in Islington in ‘83 because he was ideologically sound.alex_ said:
Are there two Hodge's? Not Margaret, surely?Endillion said:
ButlerCorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Webbe
Carden
Ali
Huq
Osamor
Siddiq
Er, Hodge, maybe?
I wonder if she now regrets this...
Am I being overly cynical by thinking that the strategy for this election was to lose as many moderate MPs as possible, thus simultaneously a) ensuring Brexit, followed by the loss of all Labour MEPs and b) reducing the nominations threshold for the next leader?
Cummings was playing chess. Milne was trying to lose all of his pawns, and get all his pieces to the left hand side of the board.
Edit: I actually didn't know she got him his seat in 1983. The joke was that she followed that up by nominating him in 2015 to "broaden the debate".0 -
The Con to Lab swing in 1997 was 10%.CorrectHorseBattery said:So in 2024, Labour need to make about 60 gains in order to make any decent progress.
That requires a 5.5% swing, has any leader ever achieved such a thing on the Labour side before?
60 gains would be enough to make the Tories a minority again though0 -
Don't Ave It , you did not listen to me................SNP landslideAve_it said:
I wanted three CON gains in Coventry! And nearly got them!RobD said:
Ave_it is just greedy. For him it's Ladywood or bust.Andy_JS said:
You got Birmingham Northfield for the first time since 1987.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich0 -
It needs a look into the alleged 30 candidates who had complaints about them.PaulM said:
Depends on what the make-up of the PLP is this time. Must have been a lot more momentum backed candidates. On Merseyside for instance, Ellman, Berger and Field and Twigg are gone from 2017 and replaced by Momentum minded Labour MPs. Similarly Charlotte Nichols replaces Helen Jones in Warrington North. Am less familiar with other areas, but may well be that the PLP has shifted in a Corbynite direction.The_Apocalypse said:Burgon and RLB IIRC have to get the support of at least 35 Labour MPs to even get to the membership. After 2015, I don’t see Labour MPs backing candidates that they couldn’t live with as leader of the party.
.
For example Claudia Webbe (wrote letter to newspaper defending Ken Livingstone on concentration camp guard issue) and the one who was a Lutfur Rahman protege have I think made it in in safe seats.
Obvs Chris Williamson has been defenestrated, which is excellent.
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Achieved by Blair, Wilson and Attleenot_on_fire said:
60 gains would be enough to make the Tories a minority again thoughCorrectHorseBattery said:So in 2024, Labour need to make about 60 gains in order to make any decent progress.
That requires a 5.5% swing, has any leader ever achieved such a thing on the Labour side before?0 -
Watching Johnson do his northern victory tour and it seems they had a plan to target the north, and they have a plan to keep it. The latter is more of a feeling only.0
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Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.HaroldO said:
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.0 -
Indeed.ydoethur said:
Chester has a university as well, don’t forget.another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff N
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Chester
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Actually Chester went Labour in 2015 so I was mistaken above.
But if you look at the Labour gains from the Conservatives in 2015:
Brentford
Chester
Dewsbury
Ealing C
Enfield N
Ilford N
Lancaster
Wirral W
Wolverhampton SW
Only Dewsbury and Wolverhampton SW were won by the Conservatives in 2019.
With the same pattern of posho remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland among those still Labour.0 -
O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc0 -
Quite possibly. In Staffordshire the way Ruth Smeeth and Gareth Snell were hung out to dry in seats Labour could have won was nothing short of disgraceful.Endillion said:
Yes, this was the joke*.ydoethur said:
Hodge was of course the person who effectively got Corbyn his seat in Islington in ‘83 because he was ideologically sound.alex_ said:
Are there two Hodge's? Not Margaret, surely?Endillion said:
ButlerCorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Webbe
Carden
Ali
Huq
Osamor
Siddiq
Er, Hodge, maybe?
I wonder if she now regrets this...
Am I being overly cynical by thinking that the strategy for this election was to lose as many moderate MPs as possible, thus simultaneously a) ensuring Brexit, followed by the loss of all Labour MEPs and b) reducing the nominations threshold for the next leader?
Cummings was playing chess. Milne was trying to lose all of his pawns, and get all his pieces to the left hand side of the board.
Edit: I actually didn't know she got him his seat in 1983. The joke was that she followed that up by nominating him in 2015 to "broaden the debate".
But tbh, it should be noted that Labour have always taken Stoke for granted. Look at the Tristram Hunt debacle.0 -
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?ydoethur said:
Not been around since the password debacle.Black_Rook said:
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.DayTripper said:1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
2. Probably still in mourning.0 -
Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.0
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Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?0 -
Anyway, seems like the youthquake was not of White Island proportions.DayTripper said:
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?ydoethur said:
Not been around since the password debacle.Black_Rook said:
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.DayTripper said:1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
2. Probably still in mourning.0 -
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.0 -
Being white and middle class I like to not judge us too softly on racism, although I have been a victim but only the once in Poland so it doesn't count that much.Malmesbury said:
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.HaroldO said:
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
But yes, we are generally much more tolerant than a lot in Labour give us credit for. I mean looking at some of the twitter posts I can see how divorced they are from the mainstream, posting about white supremacy and imperialism etc etc. Forgetting that the working classes in the UK don't think about these things, they just want solid jobs and stuff to put under the tree at Christmas.0 -
Contract expiration?DayTripper said:
Really? How much trouble is it to change your password when you've got as many strong views as @TheJezziah?ydoethur said:
Not been around since the password debacle.Black_Rook said:
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.DayTripper said:1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
2. Probably still in mourning.0 -
Putney, though I say so myself, must be the worst performing seat for the Tories in the entire land. Having had a Con majority of > 10,000 barely four and a half years ago, it is now in Labour's hands with a staggering majority of almost 5,000 on a turnout of 77%. ... it was in fact the only seat gained by Labour in the entire General Election. Other neighbouring seats, incl Richmond, Twickenham, Wimbledon have become decidedly less blue over recent years, turning towards the LibDems, but Putney, for whatever reason, has gone headlong towards Labour, all rather strange, perhaps related to the fast expanding student population at Roehampton University.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich0 -
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.0 -
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?0 -
Gary Lineker, under fire for being gracious in defeat, has been put in the same bracket of the class system as Boris by the hard left
https://twitter.com/rebootedstef/status/1205456042370457600?s=211 -
If Scotland is still around.not_on_fire said:
The Con to Lab swing in 1997 was 10%.CorrectHorseBattery said:So in 2024, Labour need to make about 60 gains in order to make any decent progress.
That requires a 5.5% swing, has any leader ever achieved such a thing on the Labour side before?
60 gains would be enough to make the Tories a minority again though0 -
Greedy! If the Conservatives had done that well then they would've ended up with a three-figure majority and swept Yvette Cooper away to boot.MaxPB said:Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
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I saw an interview on foreign media with one of the people who wrote the Tory manifesto and I was impressed by how much they have clearly thought about winning the peace, not just the war, the kind of forethought that government desperately needs. We shall see if the strategy and implementation is successful.HaroldO said:Watching Johnson do his northern victory tour and it seems they had a plan to target the north, and they have a plan to keep it. The latter is more of a feeling only.
0 -
No French National Assembly members were murdered by nationalists, nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims by using one of the many mainstream media owned by his friends. So this is unfair - I don't know about the other countries. I know Canada's leader got away with seriously racist behaviour.Malmesbury said:
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.HaroldO said:
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.0 -
You are every bit our Superior in this arena.ydoethur said:
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?0 -
So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Canterbury
Reading E
Oxford W
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
Are you having a laugh?EPG said:
No French National Assembly members were murdered by nationalists, nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims by using one of the many mainstream media owned by his friends. So this is unfair - I don't know about the other countries. I know Canada's leader got away with seriously racist behaviour.Malmesbury said:
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.HaroldO said:
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/06/nicolas-sarkozys-waterloo-is-his-war-on-islam/
I know you said "using media owned by his friends" but that does seem unnecessarily specific.0 -
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.alex_ said:O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.0 -
I am abbess t’bet for a pun.Endillion said:
You are every bit our Superior in this arena.ydoethur said:
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?0 -
I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
0 -
The winner will be whoever is the most left-wing. So not her.rkrkrk said:
She's talking a lot of sense here. A stitch up would be a disaster.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1205902209835261953
Streeting + Phillips
Don't know much about her but I hope she runs (she's also my best betting result that's realistic).0 -
You might have missed the referendum on leaving the EU, where the leave side secure 52%.rural_voter said:
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.alex_ said:O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.0 -
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.0 -
He should just fuck off and vote Tory.isam said:Gary Lineker, under fire for being gracious in defeat, has been put in the same bracket of the class system as Boris by the hard left
https://twitter.com/rebootedstef/status/1205456042370457600?s=210 -
I’m intrigued. What other reasons would anyone have had for voting Tory?nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for?
Come to that, what more reason would they need?
It was the most horribly negative campaign for an excellent reason.0 -
On safety of seats, the next LibDems is from Bath or Twickenham....
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/liberal-democrat
11 seats. Jeez......0 -
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.1 -
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
0 -
The Lords will not frustrate, they will do their job and scrutinize and amend but they won’t frustrate, the war is over.rural_voter said:
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.alex_ said:O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.0 -
"..nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims" - ha ha ha. Have you ever wondered how the errr... "Districts" came about? Is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_massacre_of_1961 news to you? I suggest you ask some French muslims about the relative atmosphere here and there.EPG said:
No French National Assembly members were murdered by nationalists, nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims by using one of the many mainstream media owned by his friends. So this is unfair - I don't know about the other countries. I know Canada's leader got away with seriously racist behaviour.Malmesbury said:
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.HaroldO said:
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
Canada - I presume you are referring to Trudeau's black face incident? I suggest you ask some actual Canadians of colour. They will tell you there is a noticeable difference between a stupid costume and, say, being a defender and friend of people who spread the Blood Libel,0 -
m
As your usual example of Boris’s anti Muslim bias is his article on banning the burqa, I’m surprised that you missed the point that he was disagreeing with the ban that had been passed by the French.EPG said:
No French National Assembly members were murdered by nationalists, nor did France's leader whip up hatred of Muslims by using one of the many mainstream media owned by his friends. So this is unfair - I don't know about the other countries. I know Canada's leader got away with seriously racist behaviour.Malmesbury said:
Actually, the UK is startlingly tolerant.HaroldO said:
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
As opposed to France - where there really are areas you shouldn't go and 30% vote for the Really Real Fascists. Or Italy, where the actual fascists get into government coalition's. Or Hungary where state organised veneration of Horthy is becoming a religion. Or Greece where a non trivial percentage of the police in Athens belong to Golden Dawn.
Consider Rotherham. Many first generation immigrants of my acquaintance have expressed astonishment that the law has prevailed so easily. All have commented that it would have been a blood bath in their respective countries. Did you know that the metropolitan elite *assumed* that pogroms were going to happen?
Whining that the EvulYokelScum just want what the Australian trade unions wanted - prevention of the usage of immigration to undermine working class wages - isn't going to make them Nazi's.
That is from memory, so please correct me if I have the details wrong.0 -
To have got the other two Doncaster seats would have required assuming a landslide was going to happen.MaxPB said:Having a more detailed look at some seats. We should have taken all three Doncaster seats, didn't squeeze the BP vote hard enough. Would have got Red Ed out as well.
It made more sense to concentrate on Don Valley.
Likewise to concentrate on Rother Valley and Penistone instead of the other Rotherham and Barnsley seats.
Or again to concentrate on Bolsover (Con maj 5,299) rather than get distracted by Chesterfield (Lab maj 1,451).
Also, the BXP really put huge resources into South Yorkshire, sending out more letters than even Mike Smithson did.1 -
I have a Confession to make. On reflection, I think "surplice" was an illegal move.ydoethur said:
I am abbess t’bet for a pun.Endillion said:
You are every bit our Superior in this arena.ydoethur said:
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?
I should have stuck to more conventional puns.0 -
ydoethur said:
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?
You have to take the ruff with the smooth0 -
You should have kept to conventual puns, surely?Endillion said:
I have a Confession to make. On reflection, I think "surplice" was an illegal move.ydoethur said:
I am abbess t’bet for a pun.Endillion said:
You are every bit our Superior in this arena.ydoethur said:
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?
I should have stuck to more conventional puns.0 -
Bravo!ydoethur said:
You should have kept to conventual puns, surely?Endillion said:
I have a Confession to make. On reflection, I think "surplice" was an illegal move.ydoethur said:
I am abbess t’bet for a pun.Endillion said:
You are every bit our Superior in this arena.ydoethur said:
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?
I should have stuck to more conventional puns.0 -
That was the point there is little evidence of what change they want where has it ever been articulated? They just didn’t want corbyn, fair play I didn’t but where next?HaroldO said:
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
0 -
Seats with 14,000 and 15,000 majorities need to be overturned to get to 50. Yikes.MarqueeMark said:On safety of seats, the next LibDems is from Bath or Twickenham....
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/liberal-democrat
11 seats. Jeez......0 -
Aw, dammit. That was what I was trying, though...ydoethur said:
You should have kept to conventual puns, surely?Endillion said:
I have a Confession to make. On reflection, I think "surplice" was an illegal move.ydoethur said:
I am abbess t’bet for a pun.Endillion said:
You are every bit our Superior in this arena.ydoethur said:
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?
I should have stuck to more conventional puns.
Clearly, more contemplation was needed.0 -
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?
0 -
James Brokenshire has many detailed plans. What was lacking was central support. He will have it now.HaroldO said:Watching Johnson do his northern victory tour and it seems they had a plan to target the north, and they have a plan to keep it. The latter is more of a feeling only.
0 -
Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.1 -
Autocorrect is bloody annoying at the moment, isn’t it? It keeps altaring what I write too, sometimes with embarrassing results as when I was calling outEndillion said:
Aw, dammit. That was what I was trying, though...ydoethur said:
You should have kept to conventual puns, surely?Endillion said:
I have a Confession to make. On reflection, I think "surplice" was an illegal move.ydoethur said:
I am abbess t’bet for a pun.Endillion said:
You are every bit our Superior in this arena.ydoethur said:
Nobody’s managed to stole my crown though.Endillion said:
Yes, but there's a real surplice of these puns now.ydoethur said:
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?
I should have stuck to more conventional puns.
Clearly, more contemplation was needed.SeanTByronic and ‘name’ became ‘Anne.’0 -
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.1 -
Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
I agree let’s see a progressive agenda for the UK which leaves no one behind and rewards enterprise, supports equality of opportunity through investment in education and gives any tax breaks available to the lower income brackets. Really no longer care which seats went where it’s about where we go and is also nothing to do with set piece posturing it’s about what you do. Please MPs all go home till the New Year, recover and contemplate the future and come back refreshed to work together when possible and constructively oppose where necessary let’s take this as a new opportunity for the UK not the future of the Tory party.0 -
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.0 -
I said the same thing after the 2015 GE when PBers were making confident predictions stretching out to 2030.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
None of which IIRC mentioned Brexit, Corbyn or Trump.0 -
doesn't this worry any of you? leadership will be different next time Brexit no longer an issue and an upcoming recessionalgarkirk said:
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?0 -
Any polls tonight? .4
-
Ultimately the unions are key, they will want a ROI. They spent millions on this.ydoethur said:
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.1 -
You wonder if McCluskey will face another challenge. He has screwed up massively.Jonathan said:
Ultimately the unions are key, they will want a ROI. They spent millions on this.ydoethur said:
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.0 -
Bristol NW now added.another_richard said:So by my reckoning these are the seats won by the Conservatives in 2010 but not in 2019:
Battersea
Brentford
Croydon C
Ealing C
Enfield N
Enfield Southgate
Ilford N
Putney
Richmond Park
Bedford
St Albans
Canterbury
Reading E
Oxford W
Bristol NW
Plymouth Sutton
Warwick
Chester
Lancaster
Weaver Vale
Wirral W
Cardiff N0 -
No. Get help.squareroot2 said:Any polls tonight? .
2 -
Out of habit. Half the people who voted Labour probably did so despite having reservations about Corbyn.algarkirk said:
A question not sufficiently examined is: Why did so many people vote Labour? If what the moderate Labour candidates are saying is true about what they got on the doorstep, where on earth are all these millions of people coming from?Black_Rook said:
https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1205513403466502144nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
I believe that Labour will elect Corbyn Mk 2 as the next leader. If Johnson can make a decent fist of governing then he may therefore be able to reduce Labour to a rump next time. We shall see.
On another topic, Boris has a lot of freedom because at the moment Tory voters have absolutely nowhere else to go. Brexit, Ukip, LDs and Labour between them offer nothing to any centre right voter. Nor is a centre right alternative going to appear.
Until Labour have a leadership which can reach deep into the Tory vote they are stuck. Can they learn that 'Tory Scum' is not the best line to get Tories to vote for you?0 -
There are other unions. Keep an eye on the GMB and who they back.ydoethur said:
You wonder if McCluskey will face another challenge. He has screwed up massively.Jonathan said:
Ultimately the unions are key, they will want a ROI. They spent millions on this.ydoethur said:
It is entirely possible Labour will do something sensible.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.
It would however be a dramatic break with recent practice.
1 -
Where next is in the lap of the gods. When the electorate doesn't want Corbynism because they don't like where that would take us, where the alternative takes us is a matter of 'suck it up' as the expression has it.nichomar said:
That was the point there is little evidence of what change they want where has it ever been articulated? They just didn’t want corbyn, fair play I didn’t but where next?HaroldO said:
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
0 -
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.0 -
Cheltenham. Lincoln. Probably Ynys Môn. Worcester. Newcastle under Lyme. All three seats in Stoke.Cookie said:
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.0 -
Isn't Keele Uni in TP's constituency ?Cookie said:
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
I think York uni is in York Outer.0 -
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.MaxPB said:
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.0 -
And appeared on Masstermind \;-oMorris_Dancer said:Mr. O, Lammy didn't help his reputation when he criticised the Grenfell judge for, amongst other things, being white.
0 -
Carlisle, of course.another_richard said:
Isn't Keele Uni in TP's constituency ?Cookie said:
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.
I think York uni is in York Outer.
But most of these are in the North, and some of them are very small.0 -
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.Jonathan said:
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.MaxPB said:
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.0 -
It would be interesting to compare 18-24 voting between University and non-University educated. Do the latter just not vote? Do those that vote vote in the same way or differently? Something often forgotten when talking about "youthquakes" and record turnout. There is still presumably only about 50% of young people going to university.Cookie said:
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.0 -
Falmouth has a university, as does Hereford, as does Telford, but again they are re very small.0
-
The interesting thing will be how Johnson slices the smaller pie if Brexit shrinks the economy as predicted.MaxPB said:
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.Jonathan said:
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.MaxPB said:
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.0 -
Wrexham - Glyndwr UniversityCookie said:
How many seats with student population of any sort voted Conservative? One of the Bournemouth seats must have students. After that...? Pretty much all the red dots in the south are student seats - Canterbury, Cambridge, Norwich South, Portsmouth South, Reading East, Bedford, Southampton Itchen... Bath voted LD I suppose.MarqueeMark said:
But the canvassing manpower is dispersed and less effective for Labour when they are all back home in leafy Surrey.....EPG said:
Term time concentrates the students in a couple of safe seats that swing between Labour and LD / Greens. The same students are likely to register at home in normal swing seats. Outside term time is much better for Labour - the academics are voting Labour for their paycheques / useless ideology anyway!MarqueeMark said:
The next election is SO going to be out of term time.......another_richard said:
Student votes as in Canterbury.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
Other seats which were Conservative in 2015 and Labour in 2019:
Battersea
Croydon C
Enfield Southgate
Putney
Bedford
Cardiff C
Gower
Reading E
Portsmouth S
Plymouth Sutton
Weaver Vale
Posho Remainers, demographic change, students and Greater Scouseland.
Ooh, Loughborough was Con too. And Derby North, possibly.0 -
Aren't the predictions that it will be less big, not smaller.Jonathan said:
The interesting thing will be how Johnson slices the smaller pie if Brexit shrinks the economy as predicted.MaxPB said:
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.Jonathan said:
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.MaxPB said:
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.0 -
Don't you mean they have tech colleges which are now pretending to be universities ?ydoethur said:Falmouth has a university, as does Hereford, as does Telford, but again they are re very small.
0 -
It’s a shame it is a unique opportunity for a UK government to actually govern for everybody it has only happened once in my life and the eventually let it slip away but let’s see I’ve fought this war for to long and want an end to tribalism and triumphalism can they just get on with their jobs, keep off the Telly and earn their salary.AnneJGP said:
Where next is in the lap of the gods. When the electorate doesn't want Corbynism because they don't like where that would take us, where the alternative takes us is a matter of 'suck it up' as the expression has it.nichomar said:
That was the point there is little evidence of what change they want where has it ever been articulated? They just didn’t want corbyn, fair play I didn’t but where next?HaroldO said:
They want change, they don't want Labour change so they have voted Tory but made it clear that this vote depends on them delivering. Seems sensible to me, they want their votes to be bought.nichomar said:I’m actually quite sad tonight, having accepted the result of the election and hoping that a new paradigm may be opening up in UK Government so sitting with people and trying to say , let’s give him six months then we can judge him the response is ‘at least he’s not corbyn’ so I respond and say ‘corbyn gone they can’t get near power until 2024, so let’s see what Johnson delivers... well at least it’s not corbyn is the response so I tried well maybe we can get the ex service men of the streets with the new Tory majority government... well at least it’s not corbyn ! Seriously is that all they voted Tory for? Johnson has a unique window to be a reforming pragmatic redistributer framed by controlled free market economic policy, will he take it? We can only give him time
0 -
Depends what your measuring relative to really. Either way cash is not expected to be plentiful, despite the rhetoric from both parties in this campaign.RobD said:
Aren't the predictions that it will be less big, not smaller.Jonathan said:
The interesting thing will be how Johnson slices the smaller pie if Brexit shrinks the economy as predicted.MaxPB said:
A lot of the same people also knew Theresa had fucked it the day she announced the dementia tax.Jonathan said:
Stopped clock. Even I said it was 1983 mkII and wasn’t far off.MaxPB said:
That's not true, quite a few of us have consistently been saying it would be a majority of between 60 and 80.Jonathan said:Love the way people are making bold statements on what is and isn’t possible, yet three days ago could not predict this election despite clear polling evidence.
We have no idea what is about to unfold, Tories celebrated like this in 92 and 15 and then entered hell. We just don’t know. Anything is possible.0 -
Harper Adams was not a tech college. Falmouth was a campus of Exeter before going Independent. Hereford has a new university opened last September.another_richard said:
Don't you mean they have tech colleges which are now pretending to be universities ?ydoethur said:Falmouth has a university, as does Hereford, as does Telford, but again they are re very small.
0 -
Is this a map of housing affordability or a map of relative Con-Lab swings ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-232340330 -
Wycombe has a university that is ranked just above Cambridge on one very widely used measure.0
-
Welwyn Hatfield has a university.0
-
Universiity ofnottingha sits in broxtowe ...thats Tory0
-
... you may have missed an election 2 days ago with 55% of the vote for parties which would revoke or have a confirmatory referendum.RobD said:
You might have missed the referendum on leaving the EU, where the leave side secure 52%.rural_voter said:
After 1979-97, most said 'never again', hence the Jenkins report on PR. This was later shelved under pressure from the dinosaur wing of Labour.alex_ said:O/T but has there been much discussion yet of the demoralising impact for main opposition parties facing dominant Governments with very few seats. Technically it wasn't a landslide for the Conservatives, but it was certainly a landslide defeat for Labour.
It's absolutely horrible, having to engage in the Commons scrutinising the Government, whilst throughout that the chances of actually winning any votes in Parliament are non-existent. You effectively have to run guerrilla campaigns, and keep spirits up by looking for small victories. It's probably a lot easier if you can have good relations with at least some MPs on the Government benches on a social level.
But is the make-up of the 2019 Labour party going to be up to that? What difference might having more than 50% women make? How many are new MPs? etc etc
The main official opposition from 1979-92, i.e. the parliaments with normal to large majorities, was the House of Lords. They'll now be very effective in delaying Tory bills due to the LD/Lab majority. Also ~80% of Lords are pro-EU. The LDs surely won't accept leaving the EU on the basis of 45% of the popular vote.
I expect Johnson to threaten to abolish the HoL at least once before 2024.
But they only got only 42% of the seats. As most Tories except Hannan are even more dinosaur-like on the PR issue than Labour, we'll probably have FPTP for another 100 yrs. Do enjoy your unfair majorities (six since 1979 for Tories, only three for Lab).0 -
It was not meant to be serious but nevertheless there is a serious point here. What would those who gave their vote to the Tories 24 hrs ago say now?ydoethur said:
No. Get help.squareroot2 said:Any polls tonight? .
0 -
My reply was not meant to be entirely serious either, but on rereading it it comes across as snappish. Apologies.squareroot2 said:
It was not meant to be serious but nevertheless there is a serious point here. What would those who gave their vote to the Tories 24 hrs ago say now?ydoethur said:
No. Get help.squareroot2 said:Any polls tonight? .
0