Opportunities for Labour if they don't pick a shit leader again
The top 20 or 30 are reachable, if as you say Labour don't get a shit leader - but I don't see how that can be avoided considering the current membership. They WILL crown another Corbynista, bet your life on it.
I do not see a future PM in the current PLP anywhere, let alone a competent party leader.
Sorry to say this CHB - it's a 10 year project for you and Labour, minimum.
Burgon and RLB IIRC have to get the support of at least 35 Labour MPs to even get to the membership. After 2015, I don’t see Labour MPs backing candidates that they couldn’t live with as leader of the party.
There’s a lot of American commentary on Twitter about this election. One comment that struck me as odd was Bill Maher’s tweet. Sanders and Warren are nowhere near as ‘out there’ as Corbyn is.
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.
And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.
This “ultra-Remainer” has for a very long time been stating that two things are required before this country can move on: Remainers to accept that they lost and Leavers to accept that Brexit is a shitshow. Remainers are showing signs of their bit. Leavers are showing none of theirs, despite precisely none of the touted benefits of a Leave vote having emerged and many vices having crept out of the woodwork.
One upside to Brexit is that Northern voters have abandoned their devotion to a useless Labour party, and are trying new tastes and flavours. This can only be good for democracy, and might even be good for northern voters. Because, Brexit.
By the way this is EXACTLY what sovereignty Leavers predicted: that Brexit would pump fresh blood into our moribund body politic. And so it is.
What would be good for democracy would be not having a Prime Minister with untrammelled power who led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy this year. Because Brexit.
Remain seems to have now accepted the result. But I do fear that if Brexit ends up being a shitshow (and it seems like even the best predictions are that Brexit will be marginally worse than Remaining for our economy) it will not be the fault of the Government with a massive majority, it will be the fault of others for not believing enough.
Some of the worst Brexiteers are as bad as the most rabid lefties, only for other reasons.
But Boris now doesn't have to listen to your General Francois of this world.
On topic: if we take it for granted that the Lib Dems aren't going to pick a Scottish leader again (because 1. all the Scottish seats are marginals and 2. Scotland might have gone by 2024,) and that we're not going to get the Second Coming of Farron either, then that only leaves six possible candidates in the running.
If we then also disqualify Davey (on the grounds of being a Coalition veteran and of having managed to lose against Jo Swinson in a two-horse race,) Olney (on the grounds of having previously lost against Zac Goldsmith in a two-horse race) and Moran (for boyfriend slapping) then that only leaves Wera Hobhouse and the two total newbies standing. Thus it would not be at all surprising if one of them were to win it, surely?
How many times were we told that Boris would never even get on the short list drawn up by Tory MPs?
Opportunities for Labour if they don't pick a shit leader again
The top 20 or 30 are reachable, if as you say Labour don't get a shit leader - but I don't see how that can be avoided considering the current membership. They WILL crown another Corbynista, bet your life on it.
I do not see a future PM in the current PLP anywhere, let alone a competent party leader.
Sorry to say this CHB - it's a 10 year project for you and Labour, minimum.
I think it probably is a 10 year project - but Labour needs to make progress in 5 or face extinction.
I think a minority Government is possible in 5 years with a very good leader - but a majority seems as impossible as ever.
I fear Labour will once again be relying on a strong SNP and also the Lib Dems actually winning this time. If even 30% of their target seats (most of them Tory) are won the Tories might be in trouble.
But right now I'm pretty gloomy about it all - because Labour seems incapable of listening.
The Lib Dems have a path back to the highs of Kennedy, they have 100 targets for 2024. And I wonder if now Brexit is out the way whether some votes in the SW might not return to them.
Have you SEEN those majorities in the SW? North Cornwall, North Devon - supposedly nip-and-tuck marginals last week, both now with 14k majorities for the blues. The supposedly in-the-bag St. Ives - a 4k Tory majority. Elsewhere in Cornwall, they are a very distant third place to Labour.
Devon and Somerset are little better.
Revoke has Ratnerised the LibDems down here. That - and a side-order of Swinson. It's going to take multiple elections before the LibDems get a hearing down here again.
Remain seems to have now accepted the result. But I do fear that if Brexit ends up being a shitshow (and it seems like even the best predictions are that Brexit will be marginally worse than Remaining for our economy) it will not be the fault of the Government with a massive majority, it will be the fault of others for not believing enough.
Some of the worst Brexiteers are as bad as the most rabid lefties, only for other reasons.
But Boris now doesn't have to listen to your General Francois of this world.
This is the only glimmer of hope for me really.
I've always supported a soft Brexit in principle, something like a Norway-style relationship and I always thought May was an idiot for not reaching out when nobody really knew what Brexit meant and she chose to define it as she did.
We could have left in March on a soft deal and most people would have respected the result.
I wonder if Johnson will not now tack to a soft Brexit, which is pretty much what he argued for during the referendum.
The Lib Dems have a path back to the highs of Kennedy, they have 100 targets for 2024. And I wonder if now Brexit is out the way whether some votes in the SW might not return to them.
Have you SEEN those majorities in the SW? North Cornwall, North Devon - supposedly nip-and-tuck marginals last week, both now with 14k majorities for the blues. The supposedly in-the-bag St. Ives - a 4k Tory majority. Elsewhere in Cornwall, they are a very distant third place to Labour.
Devon and Somerset are little better.
Revoke has Ratnerised the LibDems down here. That - and a side-order of Swinson. It's going to take multiple elections before the LibDems get a hearing down here again.
Depends how things look in five years. I doubt many would have said in 2014 that this would be happening now.
Things remain unpredictable in the political world.
I do think there will be a recession in the next 10 years - and I wonder what the Tory response to that might be.
Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader? Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference. The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor? Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not? Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP. So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
The real problem with the Coalition was that Clegg was so keen to prove to the world that coalition government could work, that he sacrificed everything to this objective. The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!
The Tories were ruthless and untrustworthy. And so were Labour - even campaigning against the Coalition on policies which had been in their own manifesto.
All is not lost. If I have placed AnneJGP correctly, the Lib Dems were second in this election in her constituency, and she has a good Lib Dem run council.
That is right. My guess is that the LD candidate here would have been head & shoulders above either Mr Corbyn & Mr Johnson as Prime Minister. But that isn't saying much and no doubt there are many people in all parties of whom it can be said.
Listening to an excellent podcast on the 1917 Russian revolution, it has a lot of build up so much so I am 25 episodes in (30 mins per ep) and we are only into the 1890's. Anyway, in 1871 ish a lot of Socialists in Russia that were living in collectives in Cities decided to go out the people and teach them about socialism and bring them to the light. They were either rebuffed or the locals snitched to the police and they were arrested.
This election feels like the democratic version of that.
To be fair it's not all of my Labour friends, but it is a couple, and they are the most politically committed (they go on marches and demos). So they are the people who will elect the new leader.
It's grim for Labour.
One of them is a smart artist in her 50s. Very well read. Phd. Etc.
She was convinced that Corbyn would win, even though I spent 20 minutes over drinks, recently, trying to show her the plentiful evidence that he was likely to lose. She just kept shaking her head and saying things like "youthquake".
Now she tells me she is in "shock".
I mean, what can you do?!
Had the same experience. Perfectly nice decent people generally - the sort of generally would be horrified at being associated with Jew baiters - are just in denial about the reality of the polling figures, and the nature of the people who are the praetorian guard of the party. They seem too intelligent to be just 'useful idiots' but that is how they seem. Feels more like fundamentalist religion to me.
Yes, it's religiosity without God. A faith.
The parallels with Leavers are obvious.
And ultra-Remainers like you. Who lose all common sense, become hysterically upset over everything, see evil heretics everywhere, and believe in miracles like the Second Coming, sorry, Referendum.
This “ultra-Remainer” has for a very long time been stating that two things are required before this country can move on: Remainers to accept that they lost and Leavers to accept that Brexit is a shitshow. Remainers are showing signs of their bit. Leavers are showing none of theirs, despite precisely none of the touted benefits of a Leave vote having emerged and many vices having crept out of the woodwork.
One upside to Brexit is that Northern voters have abandoned their devotion to a useless Labour party, and are trying new tastes and flavours. This can only be good for democracy, and might even be good for northern voters. Because, Brexit.
By the way this is EXACTLY what sovereignty Leavers predicted: that Brexit would pump fresh blood into our moribund body politic. And so it is.
What would be good for democracy would be not having a Prime Minister with untrammelled power who led a direct assault on Parliamentary democracy this year. Because Brexit.
It's just boring now. Sorry. Move on, mate.
Enjoy your religiosity without God. Us unbelievers will continue to point out that Brexit is a dismal failure without redeeming features.
Opportunities for Labour if they don't pick a shit leader again
The top 20 or 30 are reachable, if as you say Labour don't get a shit leader - but I don't see how that can be avoided considering the current membership. They WILL crown another Corbynista, bet your life on it.
I do not see a future PM in the current PLP anywhere, let alone a competent party leader.
Sorry to say this CHB - it's a 10 year project for you and Labour, minimum.
I think it probably is a 10 year project - but Labour needs to make progress in 5 or face extinction.
I think a minority Government is possible in 5 years with a very good leader - but a majority seems as impossible as ever.
I fear Labour will once again be relying on a strong SNP and also the Lib Dems actually winning this time. If even 30% of their target seats (most of them Tory) are won the Tories might be in trouble.
But right now I'm pretty gloomy about it all - because Labour seems incapable of listening.
If sensible lefties like you give up and hand the party to Mad Doctor Girl below, then the party IS doomed.
Don't give up. And your diagnosis is right, it's probably ten years but it could be five. When the Tories installed Cameron they went from sub-200 seats in 2005 (ie less than Labour now) to government in Coalition in 2010
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.
She's fucking hot tho
Strange thing for a transitioning male model to say.
Does remind me though of a poster who used to be on here. He would post some really quite creepy stuff about what he wanted to do to fifteen year old female swimmers, or indeed just about any other woman. Don’t know whether you’d remember him? His Anne was SeanT.
On topic: if we take it for granted that the Lib Dems aren't going to pick a Scottish leader again (because 1. all the Scottish seats are marginals and 2. Scotland might have gone by 2024,) and that we're not going to get the Second Coming of Farron either, then that only leaves six possible candidates in the running.
If we then also disqualify Davey (on the grounds of being a Coalition veteran and of having managed to lose against Jo Swinson in a two-horse race,) Olney (on the grounds of having previously lost against Zac Goldsmith in a two-horse race) and Moran (for boyfriend slapping) then that only leaves Wera Hobhouse and the two total newbies standing. Thus it would not be at all surprising if one of them were to win it, surely?
How many times were we told that Boris would never even get on the short list drawn up by Tory MPs?
I know she's in a Scottish constituency (Edinburgh West) but Christine Jardine increased her majority on Thursday.
The Lib Dems have a path back to the highs of Kennedy, they have 100 targets for 2024. And I wonder if now Brexit is out the way whether some votes in the SW might not return to them.
Have you SEEN those majorities in the SW? North Cornwall, North Devon - supposedly nip-and-tuck marginals last week, both now with 14k majorities for the blues. The supposedly in-the-bag St. Ives - a 4k Tory majority. Elsewhere in Cornwall, they are a very distant third place to Labour.
Devon and Somerset are little better.
Revoke has Ratnerised the LibDems down here. That - and a side-order of Swinson. It's going to take multiple elections before the LibDems get a hearing down here again.
We wait, though, to see what Brexit does to a) farming and b) regional grants. And fishing.
Opportunities for Labour if they don't pick a shit leader again
The top 20 or 30 are reachable, if as you say Labour don't get a shit leader - but I don't see how that can be avoided considering the current membership. They WILL crown another Corbynista, bet your life on it.
I do not see a future PM in the current PLP anywhere, let alone a competent party leader.
Sorry to say this CHB - it's a 10 year project for you and Labour, minimum.
I think it probably is a 10 year project - but Labour needs to make progress in 5 or face extinction.
I think a minority Government is possible in 5 years with a very good leader - but a majority seems as impossible as ever.
I fear Labour will once again be relying on a strong SNP and also the Lib Dems actually winning this time. If even 30% of their target seats (most of them Tory) are won the Tories might be in trouble.
But right now I'm pretty gloomy about it all - because Labour seems incapable of listening.
You're right to be gloomy, I certainly would be if the situation was reversed. Consider this - it took Labour another 14 years to recover after the catastrophe of 1983. This defeat was even worse than that. Worse still if Scotland gets its independence.
I don't think Labour will ever again get a majority of seats in England. Those days have long gone.
Maybe Tony Blair was just a fluke, a one off, a freak of nature, who breezed in and out and Labour are now in their default position - unelectable.
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.
She's fucking hot tho
Strange thing for a transitioning male model to say.
Does remind me though of a poster who used to be on here. He would post some really quite creepy stuff about what he wanted to do to fifteen year old female swimmers, or indeed just about any other woman. Don’t know whether you’d remember him? His Anne was SeanT.
Opportunities for Labour if they don't pick a shit leader again
The top 20 or 30 are reachable, if as you say Labour don't get a shit leader - but I don't see how that can be avoided considering the current membership. They WILL crown another Corbynista, bet your life on it.
I do not see a future PM in the current PLP anywhere, let alone a competent party leader.
Sorry to say this CHB - it's a 10 year project for you and Labour, minimum.
I think it probably is a 10 year project - but Labour needs to make progress in 5 or face extinction.
I think a minority Government is possible in 5 years with a very good leader - but a majority seems as impossible as ever.
I fear Labour will once again be relying on a strong SNP and also the Lib Dems actually winning this time. If even 30% of their target seats (most of them Tory) are won the Tories might be in trouble.
But right now I'm pretty gloomy about it all - because Labour seems incapable of listening.
Think about a 10 year project.
We will be out. Boris will likely be gone.
It's not just listening but thinking about a Britain that will be markedly different to that of today.
I genuinely do not think Labour is capable of doing that right now.
Seeing the reaction from Labour members it really does look like the party is in a tailspin, and it's hard to see any way of breaking out of it before it reaches ground.
Labour is still structurally strong and there is not realistically much alternative as an opposition in the foreseeable future, but it seems the party is going to test these certainties to destruction.
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.
She's fucking hot tho
Strange thing for a transitioning male model to say.
Does remind me though of a poster who used to be on here. He would post some really quite creepy stuff about what he wanted to do to fifteen year old female swimmers, or indeed just about any other woman. Don’t know whether you’d remember him? His Anne was SeanT.
His Anne?
Is that like a spirit daemon?
The spirit demon is autocorrect, which is the only thing in the known universe more peculiar and incompetent than Richard Burgon,
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
Na, once they get in the desire to switch voting systems would evaporate. See Canada as a recent example.
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.
She's fucking hot tho
Strange thing for a transitioning male model to say.
Does remind me though of a poster who used to be on here. He would post some really quite creepy stuff about what he wanted to do to fifteen year old female swimmers, or indeed just about any other woman. Don’t know whether you’d remember him? His Anne was SeanT.
His Anne?
Is that like a spirit daemon?
The spirit demon is autocorrect, which is the only thing in the known universe more peculiar and incompetent than Richard Burgon,
If you are having an affair with a woman called Anne this would be a good time to turn off auto correct
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
With PR we will have a less adversarial politics, in the HoC anyway. So although there may not be majority Tory governments they would find it a lot easier to find coalition partners to rule with.
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing
That's a stupid graphic, as it doesn't tell you what the total electorate was.
I was talking about Singh's Tweet
I thought you were desperate for a Corbyn victory CHB?
I wanted the Tories out and Corbyn was the only way to deliver that - but now it's clear I was deeply wrong.
You've written some very thoughtful posts over the frenetic weeks before the GE, thank you.
I know from what you've posted that the GE didn't go the way you were predicting and hoping for, but this latest post reads as though the GE result itself has changed your opinion. May I ask whether that is so, and if so, how the result changed your mind?
Christ this nasty piece of work says she wants to be a doctor? Her parents must be so very proud of her.
She's fucking hot tho
Strange thing for a transitioning male model to say.
Does remind me though of a poster who used to be on here. He would post some really quite creepy stuff about what he wanted to do to fifteen year old female swimmers, or indeed just about any other woman. Don’t know whether you’d remember him? His Anne was SeanT.
His Anne?
Is that like a spirit daemon?
The spirit demon is autocorrect, which is the only thing in the known universe more peculiar and incompetent than Richard Burgon,
If you are having an affair with a woman called Anne this would be a good time to turn off auto correct
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
With PR we will have a less adversarial politics, in the HoC anyway. So although there may not be majority Tory governments they would find it a lot easier to find coalition partners to rule with.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
Na, once they get in the desire to switch voting systems would evaporate. See Canada as a recent example.
I think it's inconceivable Labour are going to be in a position to ignore voting reform. They'll need the LDs and SNP, probably the SNP at best.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
CHB I feel sorry for you, I know how much you wanted the Tories to lose, but seriously, this is far-fetched nonsense. If I were you I would concentrate on Labour's problems, not imaginary Tory ones in the distant future.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
With PR we will have a less adversarial politics, in the HoC anyway. So although there may not be majority Tory governments they would find it a lot easier to find coalition partners to rule with.
Cooperation can only be good for all of us.
Adversarial politics is also good, as it forces parties to have positions that are acceptable to large swathes of the country. See the recent crushing of Labour three days ago.
Big demo in Rome today. Not a single SWP placard in sight.
I'm starting to envy countries that don't have woke generations and ID politics.
Italy is one of them. Greece too. Maybe it's only rich, unconquered, relatively untroubled countries - the US, the UK - which produce these emanations. The sickness of success.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
Big demo in Rome today. Not a single SWP placard in sight.
I'm starting to envy countries that don't have woke generations and ID politics.
Italy is one of them. Greece too. Maybe it's only rich, unconquered, relatively untroubled countries - the US, the UK - which produce these emanations. The sickness of success.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
Not really, when Labour do eventually win it will be with about 43% of the vote and they will have an epiphany and realise that FPTP is the best thing since sliced bread. It really does help the main two parties hold onto power.
Opportunities for Labour if they don't pick a shit leader again
The top 20 or 30 are reachable, if as you say Labour don't get a shit leader - but I don't see how that can be avoided considering the current membership. They WILL crown another Corbynista, bet your life on it.
I do not see a future PM in the current PLP anywhere, let alone a competent party leader.
Sorry to say this CHB - it's a 10 year project for you and Labour, minimum.
I think it probably is a 10 year project - but Labour needs to make progress in 5 or face extinction.
I think a minority Government is possible in 5 years with a very good leader - but a majority seems as impossible as ever.
I fear Labour will once again be relying on a strong SNP and also the Lib Dems actually winning this time. If even 30% of their target seats (most of them Tory) are won the Tories might be in trouble.
But right now I'm pretty gloomy about it all - because Labour seems incapable of listening.
You're right to be gloomy, I certainly would be if the situation was reversed. Consider this - it took Labour another 14 years to recover after the catastrophe of 1983. This defeat was even worse than that. Worse still if Scotland gets its independence.
I don't think Labour will ever again get a majority of seats in England. Those days have long gone.
Maybe Tony Blair was just a fluke, a one off, a freak of nature, who breezed in and out and Labour are now in their default position - unelectable.
All depends on the next five years. If, as I suspect, Labour elects a continuity Corbyn candidate and the Tories make a decent fist of turning their provincial gains into a Blue Firewall skirting the conurbations, then Labour could be out of power for a very, very long time.
If, on the other hand, Labour pick a plausible leader able to articulate a reasonable plan for social democracy, and Boris Johnson turns out to be useless, then Labour could be right back in the game after 2024. The electorate is very volatile: if Scotland secedes then another Tory majority looks pretty much nailed on, but if it doesn't then Labour might be able to achieve a Hung Parliament if it puts in an exceptional performance.
Ignoring the outlier that is clearly now 2017, this is fucking depressing
That's a stupid graphic, as it doesn't tell you what the total electorate was.
I was talking about Singh's Tweet
I thought you were desperate for a Corbyn victory CHB?
I wanted the Tories out and Corbyn was the only way to deliver that - but now it's clear I was deeply wrong.
You've written some very thoughtful posts over the frenetic weeks before the GE, thank you.
I know from what you've posted that the GE didn't go the way you were predicting and hoping for, but this latest post reads as though the GE result itself has changed your opinion. May I ask whether that is so, and if so, how the result changed your mind?
As I have said before CHB is a real asset to the site. I hope he joins the list of long term left of centre contributors here. We need people arguing for strong effective opposition parties to jokd the Government to account.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
CHB I feel sorry for you, I know how much you wanted the Tories to lose, but seriously, this is far-fetched nonsense. If I were you I would concentrate on Labour's problems, not imaginary Tory ones in the distant future.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
Na, once they get in the desire to switch voting systems would evaporate. See Canada as a recent example.
I think it's inconceivable Labour are going to be in a position to ignore voting reform. They'll need the LDs and SNP, probably the SNP at best.
Yes and the SNP just won ~80% of the seats with 44% of the vote. Why would they ever get rid of FPTP?
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
CHB I feel sorry for you, I know how much you wanted the Tories to lose, but seriously, this is far-fetched nonsense. If I were you I would concentrate on Labour's problems, not imaginary Tory ones in the distant future.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
CHB I feel sorry for you, I know how much you wanted the Tories to lose, but seriously, this is far-fetched nonsense. If I were you I would concentrate on Labour's problems, not imaginary Tory ones in the distant future.
I was joking...
Lol ok.
The point about PR was sort of serious, in that if Labour is ever to govern again, I think it will be part of a minority Government. And I bloody hope they're forced to support PR as a result of that.
OK, if the Tories lose 50 seats next time then we can have a Labour PM. We don't even have to gain all of those seats.
That is doable.
Assuming Scotland is still in the union by then.
Boris won't allow a Sindy referendum. Why? Because most Scots don't want one, not yet.
If there is another SNP govt at Holyrood I reckon he will suggest a royal commission to investigate devomax (which was itself being discussed by Sturgeon). It will punt the next vote (which is coming) into the back end of the 2020s
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
All depends on the next five years. If, as I suspect, Labour elects a continuity Corbyn candidate and the Tories make a decent fist of turning their provincial gains into a Blue Firewall skirting the conurbations, then Labour could be out of power for a very, very long time.
If, on the other hand, Labour pick a plausible leader able to articulate a reasonable plan for social democracy, and Boris Johnson turns out to be useless, then Labour could be right back in the game after 2024. The electorate is very volatile: if Scotland secedes then another Tory majority looks pretty much nailed on, but if it doesn't then Labour might be able to achieve a Hung Parliament if it puts in an exceptional performance.
If Labour picks a decent candidate who can get the Labour vote to turn out again, it seems conceivable to me they'd win back a decent chunk of their heartland seats. They might even get a bit of the BXP vote back. We must not forget that the Tory success was at least somewhat exaggerated by poor Labour turnout due to Corbyn being terrible.
But Labour really can't rely on luck, that Johnson will be rubbish. Historically he has been poor and despite Corbyn, people don't trust him either. I don't think many of these seats do either, they just think he was less crap than Corbyn. So he's going to have to do a lot to convince them he's on their side, beyond just delivering Brexit. He'll have five years to cock up, if he does.
So Labour need to prepare for all outcomes - which is why their new political team actually need to strategise. Otherwise, prepare to lose.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
The Lib Dems have a path back to the highs of Kennedy, they have 100 targets for 2024. And I wonder if now Brexit is out the way whether some votes in the SW might not return to them.
Have you SEEN those majorities in the SW? North Cornwall, North Devon - supposedly nip-and-tuck marginals last week, both now with 14k majorities for the blues. The supposedly in-the-bag St. Ives - a 4k Tory majority. Elsewhere in Cornwall, they are a very distant third place to Labour.
Devon and Somerset are little better.
Revoke has Ratnerised the LibDems down here. That - and a side-order of Swinson. It's going to take multiple elections before the LibDems get a hearing down here again.
I'm not sure the multiple elections part is so.
There's a huge difference between voting in support of a party and voting to keep another party out of power.
All depends on the next five years. If, as I suspect, Labour elects a continuity Corbyn candidate and the Tories make a decent fist of turning their provincial gains into a Blue Firewall skirting the conurbations, then Labour could be out of power for a very, very long time.
If, on the other hand, Labour pick a plausible leader able to articulate a reasonable plan for social democracy, and Boris Johnson turns out to be useless, then Labour could be right back in the game after 2024. The electorate is very volatile: if Scotland secedes then another Tory majority looks pretty much nailed on, but if it doesn't then Labour might be able to achieve a Hung Parliament if it puts in an exceptional performance.
If Labour picks a decent candidate who can get the Labour vote to turn out again, it seems conceivable to me they'd win back a decent chunk of their heartland seats. They might even get a bit of the BXP vote back. We must not forget that the Tory success was at least somewhat exaggerated by poor Labour turnout due to Corbyn being terrible.
But Labour really can't rely on luck, that Johnson will be rubbish. Historically he has been poor and despite Corbyn, people don't trust him either. I don't think many of these seats do either, they just think he was less crap than Corbyn. So he's going to have to do a lot to convince them he's on their side, beyond just delivering Brexit. He'll have five years to cock up, if he does.
So Labour need to prepare for all outcomes - which is why their new political team actually need to strategise. Otherwise, prepare to lose.
Watching the clip, they were split spouting that they thought all these seats were going to be decided by 10s /100s of votes. Did they really believe this? Did the Labour internal polling say this? Or were they just spinning bullshit as usual?
2:03 when the girl starts crying because of Blyth Valley is jolly good, as well.
They really believe their own bullshit, and they really thought they were going to win. It is mystifying.
The guy who took the microphone is such a cuck. "I would never ever take a microphone away from a woman, you are ofcourse my superior".
OK, if the Tories lose 50 seats next time then we can have a Labour PM. We don't even have to gain all of those seats.
That is doable.
Labour gained 42 seats in 1992. 47 in 1966.
The only times it has gained more than 50 seats in an election since 1945 are 1964 and 1997.
Admittedly the Tories managed it in 1950, 1979 1979, 1983, and 2010. Indeed, in 2010 they gained a very remarkable 108, although that would have been 96 on matching boundaries. So it is possible, but it’s bloody hard work. It requires a vast amount of money and the right leadership and organisation.
I’m not going to say it isn’t doable but it isn’t going to be at all easy.
Just stunned by the proportional representation graphic on the previous thread. A party that was absolutely hammered under a FPTP system would have had under PR....9 more seats. If anyone had any doubt the extent to which the current boundaries favour Labour to an almost unbelievable extent surely that is the answer. If anyone has any doubt about how much steeper the hill Labour will have to climb in 2024 will be they should also reflect on that.
In contrast the Lib Dems would have 75 more seats giving them a somewhat larger pool to fish in.
Their challenge, as in the remainer Parliament of 2015-17, is going to be getting heard. For me, that means they need someone who is articulate, experienced and informed to make an impact on the odd occasion the media are willing to listen. Surely that can only be Ed Davey. His economic policies in the last election may not have won many votes against the fantasies being offered by both of the main parties but we are now returning, somewhat reluctantly, to the real world where what he says makes a lot of sense.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
Some of the best Governments in Europe run on the basis of PR, because compromise has formed stable and pragmatic Governments over time.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
Labour could win a majority because they ruled Scotland, they then let the SNP out of the bag with the Scottish Parliament and subsequently imploded
In the annals of self inflicted fuck ups Blairs Home Rule ranks close to Camerons EUref
Labour (or another party) could win in 2024. There are no iron rules of public opinion, there are merely a few guides from history.
And the Conservative lead in 2019 is more fragile than it looks. Firstly, Boris Johnson's approval numbers demonstrate that many of his voters were more committed to stopping Jeremy Corbyn than anything else. Secondly, the Labour Party was hammered by its voters for effectively reneging on its Brexit promise. In a few weeks, Brexit will be behind us. The Conservative Party will need to have a new pitch to Redcar and Burnley beyond "Get Brexit Done", otherwise they are likely to revert to type. (And in many of these seats there is little Conservative local organisation too. Clashes between local government and Westminster over resources will be common.)
There's also Brexit itself. Let us assume that Brexit is mildly positive for economic growth in the next four and a half years. But even if this is so, there will be areas that benefit, and areas that lose. Those that lose out will blame the government. Those that benefit will thank themselves for their hard work and enterprise.
The UK government also has a smaller buffer for dealing with economic events than their predecessors. Back in 2008, UK government debt-to-GDP was just over 40%, while the EU average was 60%. We're now at 85%, while the EU is at 80%. We've gone from best in the class to lagging all but Club Med. And we have worse problems than them in other areas. It's us running the current account deficit. It's us with the record consumer debt. When the next recession comes, we're in the country with the most fragile economy. A floating currency helps, but it's not a panacea. (Indeed, the best insulation the UK has is that it's demographics are better than most in the EU. But we still have a third fewer people entering adulthood in the next five years than reaching sixty. There will be fewer workers paying for more retirees.)
When the next recession comes, the government will get the blame. Sure it may be worse in the Eurozone (and it may not), but that is little consolation to someone who loses their house, or finds themselves in negative equity and unable to move.
I don't know whether Boris Johnson will be able to deal with the challenges ahead. I hope he can. The UK will not be served well by a lurch to the hard left. But this government was elected at least in part because it shied from telling the truth to people about the costs of (for example) social care for the elderly.
There have been several times over the last few years with Brexit Party + Tories on 50%+. I don't think PR is the panacea to right wing government some want it to be.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
Labour could win a majority because they ruled Scotland, they then let the SNP out of the bag with the Scottish Parliament and subsequently imploded
In the annals of self inflicted fuck ups Blairs Home Rule ranks close to Camerons EUref
Wasn't it the Indy Ref that did it for Scottish Labour, even Brown in 2010 retained most of the Scottish seats. Without that he'd have been sitting on a similar floor to Corbyn now
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
Labour could win a majority because they ruled Scotland, they then let the SNP out of the bag with the Scottish Parliament and subsequently imploded
In the annals of self inflicted fuck ups Blairs Home Rule ranks close to Camerons EUref
Killed nationalism stone dead, or something like that.
There have been several times over the last few years with Brexit Party + Tories on 50%+. I don't think PR is the panacea to right wing government some want it to be.
If that's what the people vote for, then so be it. We can't attack electoral systems because they give answers we don't like.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
Some of the best Governments in Europe run on the basis of PR, because compromise has formed stable and pragmatic Governments over time.
The same sort of governments grappling with populist movements either in opposition (Italy, Germany, Spain) or in power (Hungary, Poland, Spain, Italy).
No, coalition government leads to everyone feeling like losers and pushing them towards the no compromise parties. Look at how the SPD have been hollowed out in Germany and how the CDU is losing votes to AfD.
Was anyone else as hugely disgusted by Nicola Sturgeon's prolonged cackling delight as she watched Jo Swinson losing her East Dumbartonshire seat on Thursda. Fortunately for her, this shameful episode was caught only be SkyNews' cameras but can be viewed on youtube if you're sure your stomach is up to it.
On a different tack, what did other PBers ultimately decide about YouGov's MRP as regards whether it was remotely worthwhile. I have to say that I was singularly unimpressed. What they were being asked to assess was how a group of circa 70,000 people were likely to vote en masse on a given date. This wasn't a series of football matches where the odd freak goal or two, completely against the run of play, can produce a rogue result. Here, we are talking about form and the freedom of the pollster to interview as small or as large a sample as is deemed necessary to be, say, AT LEAST 75% or more confident of their being correct about the result, even in the case of tight contests. This simply didn't prove to be the case on Thursday when a whole raft of supposedly statistically safe Labour seats fell to the Tories. Some of the examples, showing the Tories' remote percentage chance of winning and where ultimately they secured the seat in question were as follows: Leigh ............................ 28% West Brom East ............ 28% North West Durham ...... 20% High Peak ..................... 15% Burnley ......................... 14% Ynys Mon ...................... 13% Heywood & Midd'ton ....... 10%
Not very impressive at all and there are other examples involving other contests between different parties. Personally, in future, I will take a great deal of persuading to take the least amount of notice of YouGov's MRP predictions. It would be remiss of me however to fail to remark that as a shareholder in YouGov, I have fared exceptionally well as regards my investment, with their share price having more than quintupled in value over the past five years from 125p in 2014 to 643p currently.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
Some of the best Governments in Europe run on the basis of PR, because compromise has formed stable and pragmatic Governments over time.
The same sort of governments grappling with populist movements either in opposition (Italy, Germany, Spain) or in power (Hungary, Poland, Spain, Italy).
No, coalition government leads to everyone feeling like losers and pushing them towards the no compromise parties. Look at how the SPD have been hollowed out in Germany and how the CDU is losing votes to AfD.
In fairness, we have populists in government AND opposition.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
Labour could win a majority because they ruled Scotland, they then let the SNP out of the bag with the Scottish Parliament and subsequently imploded
In the annals of self inflicted fuck ups Blairs Home Rule ranks close to Camerons EUref
I remember Steve Richards saying that about Scotland. He saw straight away the future impact it would have on Labour's chances. Although he's a lefty, he's one of the very few journalists on either side that knows what he's talking about.
If there is another recession in the next five years as seems plausible, the Government response will be very interesting. There will be no more "last Labour Government", the Tories will have been in power for well over 10 years.
I wonder if in some ways - and call me crazy - if that happens, whether Labour will be thankful that like in 1992, they came away relatively unscathed.
"A vocal Corbyn cheerleader ventured into a council estate in Worksop , the former coal mining town at the centre of Bassetlaw seeking votes.
On his fleeting sojourn from his expensive converted farmhouse opposite his quaint village church, he proceeded to pursue a miners widow, making her way to the shops with the aid of her zimmer frame, lambasting her for her refusal to vote Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn.
The arrogance and detachment of Corbyn’s middle class fan club was a factor in every seat that Labour lost"
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
Some of the best Governments in Europe run on the basis of PR, because compromise has formed stable and pragmatic Governments over time.
Best example of why we should not have PR is Israel.
A tiny party that usually returns three nutters holds the balance of power & has effectively blocked any potential peace deal for years.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
Some of the best Governments in Europe run on the basis of PR, because compromise has formed stable and pragmatic Governments over time.
Best example of why we should not have PR is Israel.
A tiny party that usually returns three nutters holds the balance of power & has effectively blocked any potential peace deal for years.
Yeah, well, thank goodness we haven’t had that problem ever...
No, the first MRP had it spot on, the issue was that the input of a 9 point lead in the second one. YouGov incorrectly measured the Con lead, in the end we had a 12 point lead which the MRP would have had at a majority of about 80.
I haven't looked at it in seat by seat terms, but remember MRP #1 was majority 58. MRP #2 was taken at height on photogate, the day before they still had Tory majority I think at 50.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
Some of the best Governments in Europe run on the basis of PR, because compromise has formed stable and pragmatic Governments over time.
Best example of why we should not have PR is Israel.
A tiny party that usually returns three nutters holds the balance of power & has effectively blocked any potential peace deal for years.
Yeah, well, thank goodness we haven’t had that problem ever...
We have?
In unrelated news, I've now finished wiping the 2017 election from my memory.
"A vocal Corbyn cheerleader ventured into a council estate in Worksop , the former coal mining town at the centre of Bassetlaw seeking votes.
On his fleeting sojourn from his expensive converted farmhouse opposite his quaint village church, he proceeded to pursue a miners widow, making her way to the shops with the aid of her zimmer frame, lambasting her for her refusal to vote Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn.
The arrogance and detachment of Corbyn’s middle class fan club was a factor in every seat that Labour lost"
Lansman on election night was really quite incredible in every sense. Even as his world collapsed around him the delusions went on. The Postie tried but reality was just not allowed to impinge, no matter what.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
Some of the best Governments in Europe run on the basis of PR, because compromise has formed stable and pragmatic Governments over time.
Best example of why we should not have PR is Israel.
A tiny party that usually returns three nutters holds the balance of power & has effectively blocked any potential peace deal for years.
Yeah, well, thank goodness we haven’t had that problem ever...
We have?
In unrelated news, I've now finished wiping the 2017 election from my memory.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
Labour could win a majority because they ruled Scotland, they then let the SNP out of the bag with the Scottish Parliament and subsequently imploded
In the annals of self inflicted fuck ups Blairs Home Rule ranks close to Camerons EUref
Wasn't it the Indy Ref that did it for Scottish Labour, even Brown in 2010 retained most of the Scottish seats. Without that he'd have been sitting on a similar floor to Corbyn now
I'd say not the SNP took control of Holyrood in 2007 and showed they wouldn't trash the country, Thereafter they just ate away at Labours vote and Westminster constituencies fell at each election.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
We said that in 92 and even though PR was in the initial 97 Labour party plans once the majority was won the idea disappeared never to be seen again.
But in 1997 Labour was actually capable of winning a majority.
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
PR is the wish of the loser, always has been, but it'll never happen in this country.
I hope it does one day - it will be good for all of us.
Why? What is good about endless coalitions and backroom deals decided after elections?
Some of the best Governments in Europe run on the basis of PR, because compromise has formed stable and pragmatic Governments over time.
The same sort of governments grappling with populist movements either in opposition (Italy, Germany, Spain) or in power (Hungary, Poland, Spain, Italy).
No, coalition government leads to everyone feeling like losers and pushing them towards the no compromise parties. Look at how the SPD have been hollowed out in Germany and how the CDU is losing votes to AfD.
In fairness, we have populists in government AND opposition.
No, Boris is pretty middle of the road compared to Vox or AfD.
Interestingly Boris has a larger majority than the coalition, it could end up being a very stable 5 years, which would be nice.
Yes. Even the coalition was about compromise. I think we’ve all forgotten quite how much power a united Government with a good majority has in this country. To pick two examples, Select Committees no longer matter and all Secondary Legislation can go through on a whim.
No, the first MRP had it spot on, the issue was that the input of a 9 point lead in the second one. YouGov incorrectly measured the Con lead, in the end we had a 12 point lead which the MRP would have had at a majority of about 80.
Is that not a failure of MRP though? If MRP got the lead wrong in the end, it failed.
So we just need to find a Cameron, hope the SNP does well, hope the LDs come back a bit and we can have a coalition. Easy!
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
With PR we will have a less adversarial politics, in the HoC anyway. So although there may not be majority Tory governments they would find it a lot easier to find coalition partners to rule with.
Cooperation can only be good for all of us.
Adversarial politics is also good, as it forces parties to have positions that are acceptable to large swathes of the country. See the recent crushing of Labour three days ago.
Pretty fringey parties can get 5-15% of the vote under PR by targeting their own segment very heavily and sodding everyone else. When four or five or six or seven such parties out of however many are in parliament then stitch up a coalition between each other, I'm not especially convinced that the democratic accountability is there. Does seem to work for some countries, but it's not for me personally. It's often said that the main advantage of FPTP is that we accept we'll be run by parties with pluralities rather than vote-count majorities in exchange for us getting relatively stable governance, but to me the bigger advantage is the one you picked up on.
Comments
I do not see a future PM in the current PLP anywhere, let alone a competent party leader.
Sorry to say this CHB - it's a 10 year project for you and Labour, minimum.
I think a minority Government is possible in 5 years with a very good leader - but a majority seems as impossible as ever.
I fear Labour will once again be relying on a strong SNP and also the Lib Dems actually winning this time. If even 30% of their target seats (most of them Tory) are won the Tories might be in trouble.
But right now I'm pretty gloomy about it all - because Labour seems incapable of listening.
Devon and Somerset are little better.
Revoke has Ratnerised the LibDems down here. That - and a side-order of Swinson. It's going to take multiple elections before the LibDems get a hearing down here again.
I've always supported a soft Brexit in principle, something like a Norway-style relationship and I always thought May was an idiot for not reaching out when nobody really knew what Brexit meant and she chose to define it as she did.
We could have left in March on a soft deal and most people would have respected the result.
I wonder if Johnson will not now tack to a soft Brexit, which is pretty much what he argued for during the referendum.
Things remain unpredictable in the political world.
I do think there will be a recession in the next 10 years - and I wonder what the Tory response to that might be.
Anyway, in 1871 ish a lot of Socialists in Russia that were living in collectives in Cities decided to go out the people and teach them about socialism and bring them to the light. They were either rebuffed or the locals snitched to the police and they were arrested.
This election feels like the democratic version of that.
Don't give up. And your diagnosis is right, it's probably ten years but it could be five. When the Tories installed Cameron they went from sub-200 seats in 2005 (ie less than Labour now) to government in Coalition in 2010
Lisa Nandy night be OK?
RLBailey and Burgon and Labour are dead.
Does remind me though of a poster who used to be on here. He would post some really quite creepy stuff about what he wanted to do to fifteen year old female swimmers, or indeed just about any other woman. Don’t know whether you’d remember him? His Anne was SeanT.
What swing did Cameron get in 2010?
I don't think Labour will ever again get a majority of seats in England. Those days have long gone.
Maybe Tony Blair was just a fluke, a one off, a freak of nature, who breezed in and out and Labour are now in their default position - unelectable.
Is that like a spirit daemon?
We will be out.
Boris will likely be gone.
It's not just listening but thinking about a Britain that will be markedly different to that of today.
I genuinely do not think Labour is capable of doing that right now.
Labour is still structurally strong and there is not realistically much alternative as an opposition in the foreseeable future, but it seems the party is going to test these certainties to destruction.
My one point will be this though, whenever the Tories eventually lose, PR will be implemented I suspect and we will never see a Tory majority ever again.
So enjoy these next 5 or 10 years, they may well be your last majority Governments.
I know from what you've posted that the GE didn't go the way you were predicting and hoping for, but this latest post reads as though the GE result itself has changed your opinion. May I ask whether that is so, and if so, how the result changed your mind?
But sadly unnecessary.
Her name was Fiona...
Italy is one of them. Greece too. Maybe it's only rich, unconquered, relatively untroubled countries - the US, the UK - which produce these emanations. The sickness of success.
If, on the other hand, Labour pick a plausible leader able to articulate a reasonable plan for social democracy, and Boris Johnson turns out to be useless, then Labour could be right back in the game after 2024. The electorate is very volatile: if Scotland secedes then another Tory majority looks pretty much nailed on, but if it doesn't then Labour might be able to achieve a Hung Parliament if it puts in an exceptional performance.
That is doable.
Like everyone else, I feel like I have feasted on it, in a Mr Creosote way, and I don't even want the waffer thin mint. Enough
My feeling is that even with the best leader in the world Labour isn't going to win a majority, it just doesn't seem feasible.
I want PR so perhaps my views are clouded by it - but frankly I think the best situation for the country would be a pragmatic Government where it is forced.
If there is another SNP govt at Holyrood I reckon he will suggest a royal commission to investigate devomax (which was itself being discussed by Sturgeon). It will punt the next vote (which is coming) into the back end of the 2020s
But Labour really can't rely on luck, that Johnson will be rubbish. Historically he has been poor and despite Corbyn, people don't trust him either. I don't think many of these seats do either, they just think he was less crap than Corbyn. So he's going to have to do a lot to convince them he's on their side, beyond just delivering Brexit. He'll have five years to cock up, if he does.
So Labour need to prepare for all outcomes - which is why their new political team actually need to strategise. Otherwise, prepare to lose.
There's a huge difference between voting in support of a party and voting to keep another party out of power.
Argh! Feck off! You spineless castrated git.
But it could also go a lot worse, Labour are sitting on a lot of narrow majorities too.
The only times it has gained more than 50 seats in an election since 1945 are 1964 and 1997.
Admittedly the Tories managed it in 1950, 1979 1979, 1983, and 2010. Indeed, in 2010 they gained a very remarkable 108, although that would have been 96 on matching boundaries. So it is possible, but it’s bloody hard work. It requires a vast amount of money and the right leadership and organisation.
I’m not going to say it isn’t doable but it isn’t going to be at all easy.
In contrast the Lib Dems would have 75 more seats giving them a somewhat larger pool to fish in.
Their challenge, as in the remainer Parliament of 2015-17, is going to be getting heard. For me, that means they need someone who is articulate, experienced and informed to make an impact on the odd occasion the media are willing to listen. Surely that can only be Ed Davey. His economic policies in the last election may not have won many votes against the fantasies being offered by both of the main parties but we are now returning, somewhat reluctantly, to the real world where what he says makes a lot of sense.
In the annals of self inflicted fuck ups Blairs Home Rule ranks close to Camerons EUref
And the Conservative lead in 2019 is more fragile than it looks. Firstly, Boris Johnson's approval numbers demonstrate that many of his voters were more committed to stopping Jeremy Corbyn than anything else. Secondly, the Labour Party was hammered by its voters for effectively reneging on its Brexit promise. In a few weeks, Brexit will be behind us. The Conservative Party will need to have a new pitch to Redcar and Burnley beyond "Get Brexit Done", otherwise they are likely to revert to type. (And in many of these seats there is little Conservative local organisation too. Clashes between local government and Westminster over resources will be common.)
There's also Brexit itself. Let us assume that Brexit is mildly positive for economic growth in the next four and a half years. But even if this is so, there will be areas that benefit, and areas that lose. Those that lose out will blame the government. Those that benefit will thank themselves for their hard work and enterprise.
The UK government also has a smaller buffer for dealing with economic events than their predecessors. Back in 2008, UK government debt-to-GDP was just over 40%, while the EU average was 60%. We're now at 85%, while the EU is at 80%. We've gone from best in the class to lagging all but Club Med. And we have worse problems than them in other areas. It's us running the current account deficit. It's us with the record consumer debt. When the next recession comes, we're in the country with the most fragile economy. A floating currency helps, but it's not a panacea. (Indeed, the best insulation the UK has is that it's demographics are better than most in the EU. But we still have a third fewer people entering adulthood in the next five years than reaching sixty. There will be fewer workers paying for more retirees.)
When the next recession comes, the government will get the blame. Sure it may be worse in the Eurozone (and it may not), but that is little consolation to someone who loses their house, or finds themselves in negative equity and unable to move.
I don't know whether Boris Johnson will be able to deal with the challenges ahead. I hope he can. The UK will not be served well by a lurch to the hard left. But this government was elected at least in part because it shied from telling the truth to people about the costs of (for example) social care for the elderly.
No, coalition government leads to everyone feeling like losers and pushing them towards the no compromise parties. Look at how the SPD have been hollowed out in Germany and how the CDU is losing votes to AfD.
On a different tack, what did other PBers ultimately decide about YouGov's MRP as regards whether it was remotely worthwhile. I have to say that I was singularly unimpressed. What they were being asked to assess was how a group of circa 70,000 people were likely to vote en masse on a given date. This wasn't a series of football matches where the odd freak goal or two, completely against the run of play, can produce a rogue result. Here, we are talking about form and the freedom of the pollster to interview as small or as large a sample as is deemed necessary to be, say, AT LEAST 75% or more confident of their being correct about the result, even in the case of tight contests.
This simply didn't prove to be the case on Thursday when a whole raft of supposedly statistically safe Labour seats fell to the Tories. Some of the examples, showing the Tories' remote percentage chance of winning and where ultimately they secured the seat in question were as follows:
Leigh ............................ 28%
West Brom East ............ 28%
North West Durham ...... 20%
High Peak ..................... 15%
Burnley ......................... 14%
Ynys Mon ...................... 13%
Heywood & Midd'ton ....... 10%
Not very impressive at all and there are other examples involving other contests between different parties. Personally, in future, I will take a great deal of persuading to take the least amount of notice of YouGov's MRP predictions.
It would be remiss of me however to fail to remark that as a shareholder in YouGov, I have fared exceptionally well as regards my investment, with their share price having more than quintupled in value over the past five years from 125p in 2014 to 643p currently.
I wonder if in some ways - and call me crazy - if that happens, whether Labour will be thankful that like in 1992, they came away relatively unscathed.
https://twitter.com/cubious/status/1205610913887391745?s=20
39 Likes.
God help them
"A vocal Corbyn cheerleader ventured into a council estate in Worksop , the former coal mining town at the centre of Bassetlaw seeking votes.
On his fleeting sojourn from his expensive converted farmhouse opposite his quaint village church, he proceeded to pursue a miners widow, making her way to the shops with the aid of her zimmer frame, lambasting her for her refusal to vote Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn.
The arrogance and detachment of Corbyn’s middle class fan club was a factor in every seat that Labour lost"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/thearrogance-detachment-corbyns-middle-class-fan-club-factor/
Best example of why we should not have PR is Israel.
A tiny party that usually returns three nutters holds the balance of power & has effectively blocked any potential peace deal for years.
Be very depressing to know Labour is doomed in a few months time. What a depressing prospect.
In unrelated news, I've now finished wiping the 2017 election from my memory.