politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
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Good evening, everyone.
Have any Labour MPs called for Corbyn to resign yet?0 -
A couple of months ago there was a leak about whistleblowers going to the EHRC with evidence and whom was on Newsnight a few days later? OJ. Labour had almost given up trying to find new talent to speak on camera and you can see why, look at Burgon or Lloyd R-M and his mental victory speech. Andy MDdonald lost his shit on camera repeatedly in the last week of the election.Banterman said:Interesting challenge coming up for broadcasters. As Corbyn only has very small pool of mp's he trusted to go on the media, the likes of Owen Jones, Ash Sackar and Rachel Shabi were used as the voice of Labour spokespeople.
Any of them appearing on air again is a laughable concept. Who will they use?0 -
For now.... there is always a possibility they can claw their way back.Jason said:
Told you. Wes Streeting. He spoke more sense in that interview on Sky News than Starmer has done for the last 4 years. Plus he is not a personality free zone like Starmer. Dan Jarvis is yesterday's man, and he's as boring as Starmer is. Benn, too much baggage - the man who tried to destroy Brexit, same for Kinnock, they're all Remainers. Angie Rayner, come on, at least try and be serious.CorrectHorseBattery said:My fantasy cabinet is based on the best talent Labour seem to have, which is a pretty low bar.
Who else to pop in, would like to hear thoughts
Nothing you or I say will make a difference anyway, because the membership will elect a Corbynista, and that person will have a cabinet that includes Burgon, Gardiner, Abbott, Butler, etc, etc, etc.
Labour are fucked CHB.
But what a missed chance for the Lib Dems0 -
Wes Streeting and Margaret HodgeMorris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Have any Labour MPs called for Corbyn to resign yet?0 -
you've got Miliband and Beckett in there, the two dorks who let Corbyn in to trash the party, AvoidCorrectHorseBattery said:Okay reshuffle:
Keir Starmer
Lisa Nandy
Dan Jarvis
Sarah Champion
Tan Dhesi
Wes Streeting
Ed Miliband
Margaret Beckett
Jess Phillips
Pat McFadden
Yvette Cooper0 -
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I think you need to go and have a lie down for a while CHB.CorrectHorseBattery said:Okay reshuffle:
Keir Starmer
Lisa Nandy
Dan Jarvis
Sarah Champion
Tan Dhesi
Wes Streeting
Ed Miliband
Margaret Beckett
Jess Phillips
Pat McFadden
Yvette Cooper1 -
I don’t envy the problem here. The election winning Labour vote consists of:CorrectHorseBattery said:Okay reshuffle:
Keir Starmer
Lisa Nandy
Dan Jarvis
Sarah Champion
Tan Dhesi
Wes Streeting
Ed Miliband
Margaret Beckett
Jess Phillips
Pat McFadden
Yvette Cooper
- Northern leavers.
- Centrist fabians.
- Remainers.
- The radical left.
Uniting that lot takes a very good politician.
At this last election I reckon they had 2, some of 3, and 4.
Led by a leaver they lose 3 and some of 2.
Led by a centrist they lose some of 4, and 1.0 -
dare you risk banana man ?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wes Streeting and Margaret HodgeMorris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Have any Labour MPs called for Corbyn to resign yet?0 -
I LOLdJason said:
I think you need to go and have a lie down for a while CHB.CorrectHorseBattery said:Okay reshuffle:
Keir Starmer
Lisa Nandy
Dan Jarvis
Sarah Champion
Tan Dhesi
Wes Streeting
Ed Miliband
Margaret Beckett
Jess Phillips
Pat McFadden
Yvette Cooper0 -
Ooooo do I get to start laying David Milliband on Betfair again?Alanbrooke said:
dare you risk banana man ?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wes Streeting and Margaret HodgeMorris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Have any Labour MPs called for Corbyn to resign yet?
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"tick tock"nunu2 said:
Is he still telling us "it's moving back to Labour".rottenborough said:Have we heard from NickP yet?
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too busyCorrectHorseBattery said:https://youtu.be/4UNytGg-6xk?t=241
Put him in the cabinet0 -
Who is NickP?1
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The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Not saying Boris is one......but it's simply a warning.0 -
I believe great progress has been made on exoskeletons since he was last in politicsTime_to_Leave said:
Ooooo do I get to start laying David Milliband on Betfair again?Alanbrooke said:
dare you risk banana man ?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Wes Streeting and Margaret HodgeMorris_Dancer said:Good evening, everyone.
Have any Labour MPs called for Corbyn to resign yet?1 -
Not sure that is right. More visible minorities frighten white people more.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
Not saying Boris is one......but it's simply a warning.0 -
Rory being all sour grapes-y on Sky.0
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Go Daisy0
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Labour needn’t worry: in its northern heartlands, Brexiters are not the only voices - Polly Toynbee
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/30/labour-brexiters-northern-european-manifesto0 -
Don't be silly. Boomers don't have internal organs: they are instead filled with a cheese-like solid throughout, having only a tube passing from mouth to anus.IshmaelZ said:
Hath not a baby boomer hands, organs, dimensions, senses, affections, passions; fed with the same food, hurt with the same weapons, subject to the same diseases, healed by the same means, warmed and cooled by the same winter and summer as a Millennial is? If you prick us do we not bleed? If you tickle us do we not laugh?Gabs3 said:
I think more and more people are going to believe in international solidarity and people being people as the years pass. Sure, baby boomers might see Greeks as profligate wastrels that don't deserve our money, but Millenials will see them as people in a bad economy needing a little support.Black_Rook said:
Or they'll be like Republicans, a passionate yet tiny and ignored rump.Gabs3 said:You can say it is boring but pretty soon Rejoiners will be the plucky anti-establishment rebels.
We don't know for sure, but I doubt that most of the public is in the mood for being assailed by activists waxing lyrical about the joys of the European Union, nor will be for many years.
Expert studies from experts have shown that they have no brain: the vocal cords are instead attached directly via a node to Central Office, where they repeat comforting nostrums like "Boris Johnson is a one-nation Conservative" without the bother of wondering if it's actually true or not.
In the latter stages they deteriorate further, requiring constant tending and can only murmur cant phrases like "Well I call it the EUSSR!". Finally they are stuck to the Internet and pretend to be other people, occasionally more than one.
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Ex Labour MP and current Labour ramper.CorrectHorseBattery said:Who is NickP?
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at 25 on BF.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://youtu.be/4UNytGg-6xk?t=241
Put him in the cabinet0 -
Jarvis, like Burnham, will probably see that there's more likely to be political success for them remaining Mayors than bothering trying to clean up the cesspit. With Boris likely to focus more on devolution they'll get a much higher profile and actually be able to get things done rather than wrestling with trots for the rest of their careers.2
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Some of those quotes are tres amusing:FrancisUrquhart said:Labour needn’t worry: in its northern heartlands, Brexiters are not the only voices - Polly Toynbee
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/30/labour-brexiters-northern-european-manifesto
“Together with three other MPs, Creagh has written a thundering article in the Northern Echo and the Yorkshire Post denouncing this patronising nonsense, denying the southern caricature that “we northern Labour MPs live in constant fear of losing our seats” and “unless we repeat that mantra that leave means leave … we are all heading for the political scrapyard”“
Of the four who wrote that article, only one (Catherine McKinnell) is still an MP.0 -
The other Mr Rook thinks that Labour will probably pick Long-Bailey for Leader and Burgon for Deputy (although I reckon Lammy might get the #2 gig.) Regardless, he believes it'll be whoever Momentum decide that they prefer. I would imagine that, if Momentum can come to an agreement on a slate to back, they'd have little trouble getting the nominations required and said duo would then be bound to get elected by the mass membership because it's now so extreme.0
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I wonder whether there is some mechanism by which the PR element could be representative in a different way than merely by party?rcs1000 said:
I would go with 600 + 50 (partly because we already have 600 seat boundaries set up, and also because it wouldn't change the mathematics of majorities meaningfully). I'd also use the FPTP elections as the source of the top up, to avoid the situation in Scotland where the SNP encourages its voters to go Green for the list vote. I'd also simply make the 50 proportional, so it wouldn't seek to compensate for some parties getting too few FPTP seats, it would simply be a case of one seat per 2% share gained. (Or more likely 1.91%)DavidL said:
The Scottish top up system works reasonably well but I would put more emphasis on the Constituency element, ie not a full top up.rcs1000 said:On the FPTP vs PR argument, I think there are clearly arguments for both. There are successful countries with PR (like Germany, Israel or Switzerland) and successful ones with FPTP (like the US or Australia). I don't think either is some panacea that brings good governance.
One problem with FPTP is that it can hide growing dissatisfaction with some part of the status quo. Opposition to the EU was growing, but never got the parliamentary representation it needed. And it became all too easy - in the pre-2016 era - for both main parties and the LDs to support the status quo.
I therefore wonder if isam's suggestion of a small PR contingent to add to the FPTP seats mightn't be a good one. So, you'd go with (say) 600 parliamentary seats elected by FPTP, and then you'd add 50 elected by PR. In this way, minority views like Euroscepticism would have gotten into parliament earlier. Now, these fifty "party listers" would have an easy life, with no constituency business, so I'd suggest not giving them an office budget, and maybe only a salary of (say) £25,000/year. But they'd be like regular MPs in other ways.
It seems to me that we are much more divided by age-related matters, so if, for example, the top-up seats could go proportionately to those age-ranges not otherwise represented, that would help to give a wider perspective within parliament.0 -
I believe that combination has already been floated. To much merriment in No 10.Black_Rook said:The other Mr Rook thinks that Labour will probably pick Long-Bailey for Leader and Burgon for Deputy (although I reckon Lammy might get the #2 gig.) Regardless, he believes it'll be whoever Momentum decide that they prefer. I would imagine that, if Momentum can come to an agreement on a slate to back, they'd have little trouble getting the nominations required and said duo would then be bound to get elected by the mass membership because it's now so extreme.
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I wonder if that happens if a significant proportion of the Labour Parliamentary party will sit as Independent Labour, as a party with an alternative whip? What will they have to lose now? How would the Short funding work if they did that?Black_Rook said:The other Mr Rook thinks that Labour will probably pick Long-Bailey for Leader and Burgon for Deputy (although I reckon Lammy might get the #2 gig.) Regardless, he believes it'll be whoever Momentum decide that they prefer. I would imagine that, if Momentum can come to an agreement on a slate to back, they'd have little trouble getting the nominations required and said duo would then be bound to get elected by the mass membership because it's now so extreme.
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If LAB go with RLB and Burgon it WILL be CON gain Ogmore next time!Black_Rook said:The other Mr Rook thinks that Labour will probably pick Long-Bailey for Leader and Burgon for Deputy (although I reckon Lammy might get the #2 gig.) Regardless, he believes it'll be whoever Momentum decide that they prefer. I would imagine that, if Momentum can come to an agreement on a slate to back, they'd have little trouble getting the nominations required and said duo would then be bound to get elected by the mass membership because it's now so extreme.
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Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.
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But perhaps not Bootle.Ave_it said:
If LAB go with RLB and Burgon it WILL be CON gain Ogmore next time!Black_Rook said:The other Mr Rook thinks that Labour will probably pick Long-Bailey for Leader and Burgon for Deputy (although I reckon Lammy might get the #2 gig.) Regardless, he believes it'll be whoever Momentum decide that they prefer. I would imagine that, if Momentum can come to an agreement on a slate to back, they'd have little trouble getting the nominations required and said duo would then be bound to get elected by the mass membership because it's now so extreme.
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"The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!"ClippP said:
The real problem with the Coalition was that Clegg was so keen to prove to the world that coalition government could work, that he sacrificed everything to this objective. The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!AnneJGP said:
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor?ydoethur said:
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.Ratters said:Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not?
Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP.
So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
The Tories were ruthless and untrustworthy. And so were Labour - even campaigning against the Coalition on policies which had been in their own manifesto.
All is not lost. If I have placed AnneJGP correctly, the Lib Dems were second in this election in her constituency, and she has a good Lib Dem run council.
Bleat bleat bleat bleat bleat......0 -
Don't see how RLB gets nominated, don't they need a certain number of MPs?0
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Labour actually came surprisingly close to losing a bunch of Welsh Valley seats.alex_ said:
But perhaps not Bootle.Ave_it said:
If LAB go with RLB and Burgon it WILL be CON gain Ogmore next time!Black_Rook said:The other Mr Rook thinks that Labour will probably pick Long-Bailey for Leader and Burgon for Deputy (although I reckon Lammy might get the #2 gig.) Regardless, he believes it'll be whoever Momentum decide that they prefer. I would imagine that, if Momentum can come to an agreement on a slate to back, they'd have little trouble getting the nominations required and said duo would then be bound to get elected by the mass membership because it's now so extreme.
Torfaen, Llanelli Pontypridd, all go tory on another 7% swing0 -
Aren't there loads of Momentum MPs now?CorrectHorseBattery said:Don't see how RLB gets nominated, don't they need a certain number of MPs?
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Labour Co-operative Party could be the new umbrella.alex_ said:
I wonder if that happens if a significant proportion of the Labour Parliamentary party will sit as Independent Labour, as a party with an alternative whip? What will they have to lose now? How would the Short funding work if they did that?Black_Rook said:The other Mr Rook thinks that Labour will probably pick Long-Bailey for Leader and Burgon for Deputy (although I reckon Lammy might get the #2 gig.) Regardless, he believes it'll be whoever Momentum decide that they prefer. I would imagine that, if Momentum can come to an agreement on a slate to back, they'd have little trouble getting the nominations required and said duo would then be bound to get elected by the mass membership because it's now so extreme.
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Are there? Whom?MaxPB said:
Aren't there loads of Momentum MPs now?CorrectHorseBattery said:Don't see how RLB gets nominated, don't they need a certain number of MPs?
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Didn’t Corbyn change the rules so it was only 10%? I’m sure she can get 22 MPs.CorrectHorseBattery said:Don't see how RLB gets nominated, don't they need a certain number of MPs?
A more serious problem might be they are required to have brain ce...oh, as you were, Corbyn got rid of that one too.1 -
Labour MPs have always been sheep, they do what they are told even when they know they shouldntCorrectHorseBattery said:Don't see how RLB gets nominated, don't they need a certain number of MPs?
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I see there’s a return to Jan Darvis thing going on. Check out Johnny Mercer for the necessary corrective.1
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The word is (in this context) "who."CorrectHorseBattery said:
Are there? Whom?MaxPB said:
Aren't there loads of Momentum MPs now?CorrectHorseBattery said:Don't see how RLB gets nominated, don't they need a certain number of MPs?
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Far too sensible and IMO a vote winner so therefore has zip chance of happening. Labour need to wake up and realize you don’t win elections if you can’t do better in the over 50s age group .CorrectHorseBattery said:I'm starting to build a fantasy cabinet.
Leader: Keir Starmer
SC: Stephen Kinnock
HS: Dan Jarvis
FS: Hilary Benn
ES: Yvette Cooper
Minister: Angela Rayner
Thoughts?
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Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then0
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Can you nominate yourself?0
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We kept saying stuff like this all through the Corbyn era. Fact is, the ones who couldn't stand the bugger all quit. Then those who weren't planning on retiring or starting new careers anyway went on to lose at this General Election.alex_ said:
I wonder if that happens if a significant proportion of the Labour Parliamentary party will sit as Independent Labour, as a party with an alternative whip? What will they have to lose now? How would the Short funding work if they did that?Black_Rook said:The other Mr Rook thinks that Labour will probably pick Long-Bailey for Leader and Burgon for Deputy (although I reckon Lammy might get the #2 gig.) Regardless, he believes it'll be whoever Momentum decide that they prefer. I would imagine that, if Momentum can come to an agreement on a slate to back, they'd have little trouble getting the nominations required and said duo would then be bound to get elected by the mass membership because it's now so extreme.
The surviving Labour MPs are either true believers, or hangers-on who have made the not unreasonable calculation that they've more chance of keeping their jobs by sticking with Labour than they have if they turn against it.
Caveat: if Labour takes another great leap into madness and the Government turns out not to be rabidly right-wing (and possibly even displays tentative signs of competence,) then I wonder if some Labour MPs in marginal seats might cross the floor? But I really am getting ahead of myself with that idea!0 -
It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.0 -
'good indicators of future performance'CorrectHorseBattery said:We can point to the EU Elections and council elections as being good indicators of future performance based on this year's election, so if Labour/Lib Dems start to make progress (RIP EU Elections), that's a good sign. But I fear they won't.
The Lib Dems had excellent results in both the EU & local elections this year & then went backwards in the GE0 -
I didn't post about it at the time but I wondered if a bit of differential non response bias was going on after Boris' photo gaffe.FrancisUrquhart said:
I haven't looked at it in seat by seat terms, but remember MRP #1 was majority 58. MRP #2 was taken at height on photogate, the day before they still had Tory majority I think at 50.CorrectHorseBattery said:MRP looks more and more like in 2017 it got lucky
Same effect with Biden's polling after Harris' moment in the sun.
Polling immediately after a gaffe is suspect. Well unless the whole campaign is a gaffe as it was for May in 2017.0 -
I think Preston was surprisingly good too.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.0 -
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.0 -
Says the Tory sheep.MarqueeMark said:
"The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!"ClippP said:
The real problem with the Coalition was that Clegg was so keen to prove to the world that coalition government could work, that he sacrificed everything to this objective. The result was that Lib Dem spokesmen were given the task of announcing all the bad news, and the Tories took all the credit at the end of the day for the good, sensible policies that the Lib Dems pushed through - even against Tory opposition!AnneJGP said:
Seems to me the LDs have marginalised themselves. In what world does having real experience of government office come to be a negative, disqualifying factor?ydoethur said:
That’s a much more sensible suggestion than a leader from outside Parliament. Leaving aside the fact the Party’s constitution would need changing, it would emphasise how marginalised they have become.Ratters said:Do the Lib Dems need to rush to appoint a new leader?
Let Ed Davey and Baroness Sal Brinton run as interim leaders until after the next local elections and then have a proper leadership contest in advance of the next party conference.
The Lib Dems aren't going to be the centre of attention for a while, so they have the luxury of time to see how Johnson intends to govern and in what direction Labour decides to run in. It also gives the new MPs a chance to make an impression, both amongst MPs and through media appearances.
Before Remain/Revoke/Rejoin pushed everything else out, the LDs USP was PR. PR means coalition government, does it not?
Are the LDs still keen on PR? They should be, since their vote is much higher than the seats they can gain under FPTP.
So their rejection of the one Coalition they did join renders them pointless, in my view.
The Tories were ruthless and untrustworthy. And so were Labour - even campaigning against the Coalition on policies which had been in their own manifesto.
All is not lost. If I have placed AnneJGP correctly, the Lib Dems were second in this election in her constituency, and she has a good Lib Dem run council.
Bleat bleat bleat bleat bleat......0 -
It's funny how I've heard a couple of references in the media about how the polls got it wrong.
Except they didn't.
The MRP effect.1 -
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich0 -
I go back to an idea I floated a while back. You could have these 50 MPs (alternatively, a big slab of the House of Lords) reserved for interest groups. For example, 10 MPs for youth, 10 MPs for pensioners, 10 MPs for the NHS, 10 MPs for the disabled, 10 MPs to represent the interests of those UK residents who get no vote at the general election. No party affiliations, done on maybe a list system. Voted for on a different ballot paper. You could choose whether you wanted to take that ballot paper or not. In a close election, they would make the difference between majority Govt. - or needing to get some of these MPs onboard for your legislation to pass.AnneJGP said:I wonder whether there is some mechanism by which the PR element could be representative in a different way than merely by party?
It seems to me that we are much more divided by age-related matters, so if, for example, the top-up seats could go proportionately to those age-ranges not otherwise represented, that would help to give a wider perspective within parliament.0 -
Heseltine, whilst not winning Liverpool for the Tories (probably an impossible task) did help there.FrancisUrquhart said:Just saw Heseltine on Sky. He spoke a lot of sense about what the Tories need to do now in regards to left behind towns.
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Media bubble.. they were all reading centrist phone's twitter feed.brokenwheel said:It's funny how I've heard a couple of references in the media about how the polls got it wrong.
Except, they didn't.
The MRP effect.0 -
1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.0 -
Quick question: Is this any good?
Better question: Is this true?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6fne0PXIZM0 -
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.0 -
I hope BoJo has the sense to reform the HoL, I always thought Cameron was an idiot for not grasping the nettle. It's better the Tories reform it while they can than leave it to Corbyn Mark 2 in the future.MarqueeMark said:
I go back to an idea I floated a while back. You could have these 50 MPs (alternatively, a big slab of the House of Lords) reserved for interest groups. For example, 10 MPs for youth, 10 MPs for pensioners, 10 MPs for the NHS, 10 MPs for the disabled, 10 MPs to represent the interests of those UK residents who get no vote at the general election. No party affiliations, done on maybe a list system. Voted for on a different ballot paper. You could choose whether you wanted to take that ballot paper or not. In a close election, they would make the difference between majority Govt. - or needing to get some of these MPs onboard for your legislation to pass.AnneJGP said:I wonder whether there is some mechanism by which the PR element could be representative in a different way than merely by party?
It seems to me that we are much more divided by age-related matters, so if, for example, the top-up seats could go proportionately to those age-ranges not otherwise represented, that would help to give a wider perspective within parliament.0 -
I hope BoJo has the sense to reform the HoL, I always thought Cameron was an idiot for not grasping the nettle. It's better the Tories reform it while they can than leave it to Corbyn Mark 2 in the future.MarqueeMark said:
I go back to an idea I floated a while back. You could have these 50 MPs (alternatively, a big slab of the House of Lords) reserved for interest groups. For example, 10 MPs for youth, 10 MPs for pensioners, 10 MPs for the NHS, 10 MPs for the disabled, 10 MPs to represent the interests of those UK residents who get no vote at the general election. No party affiliations, done on maybe a list system. Voted for on a different ballot paper. You could choose whether you wanted to take that ballot paper or not. In a close election, they would make the difference between majority Govt. - or needing to get some of these MPs onboard for your legislation to pass.AnneJGP said:I wonder whether there is some mechanism by which the PR element could be representative in a different way than merely by party?
It seems to me that we are much more divided by age-related matters, so if, for example, the top-up seats could go proportionately to those age-ranges not otherwise represented, that would help to give a wider perspective within parliament.0 -
For all the talk of what’s happening domestically the fact that the deal will pass in January is a huge relief to both EU nationals in the UK and UK ones in the EU.
I don’t think people understand just how stressful living under a cloud of uncertainty is for these people .
A no deal would have been a disaster and however sad I am that we will definitely be leaving I would have been in despair if we crashed out with no deal .
It’s time to move on now , I don’t regret the election even though Labour got hammered, it was one final chance to save our EU membership .
With that over I think it’s incumbent on all of us to move past the Remain and Leave tags . We can now just go back to bickering over normal politics as we used to before Cameron decided to polarize the country !0 -
I agree, we do have racism in the UK but it is not in the same way as the US and doesn't have the same history. It's why David Lammy is so sidelined, he tried to apply US style politics to the UK and it just doesn't fly.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.0 -
Mr. O, Lammy didn't help his reputation when he criticised the Grenfell judge for, amongst other things, being white.0
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A longer list is here, although not all of them were elected.CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/leftwing-labour-mps-corbyn-selections-unite-momentum_uk_5dcd737be4b0a794d1fc1071
Bottom line is, a candidate endorsed by Corbyn or Lansman is almost certain to be nominated unless they actually have three heads.0 -
The Conservatives picked up six seats in the old county of the West Midlands, and a number of others in the wider region. Labour in the Midlands as a whole is now looking very denuded and moth-eaten. I'm not sure, therefore, what would count as "delivering much"? Were you expecting Selly Oak to go?peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
As regards Cruddas, I wouldn't describe surviving by 293 votes as being a stonking good result, but then again these things are all relative. At least Labour's net losses in London were zero. They weren't so fortunate elsewhere.0 -
Your leader banters about piccaninnies and bumboys for a chortle.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. O, Lammy didn't help his reputation when he criticised the Grenfell judge for, amongst other things, being white.
0 -
And claiming the police were supressing the real number of deaths at the Grenfell fire on Politics Live. Andrew Neil was livid.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. O, Lammy didn't help his reputation when he criticised the Grenfell judge for, amongst other things, being white.
1 -
I owe you £140 if he's next leader I think ?rottenborough said:
at 25 on BF.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://youtu.be/4UNytGg-6xk?t=241
Put him in the cabinet0 -
The swings across much of the city of Birmingham were way down on the exit poll. Two failures by 100's in Coventry were a choker.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich0 -
That's a noble sentiment. However, having seen the rewards that the politics of divisive populism can reap ('metropolitan elites', 'will of the people' etc.) there will be elements of the Right who will want more - a lot more. They've only just started.nico67 said:For all the talk of what’s happening domestically the fact that the deal will pass in January is a huge relief to both EU nationals in the UK and UK ones in the EU.
I don’t think people understand just how stressful living under a cloud of uncertainty is for these people .
A no deal would have been a disaster and however sad I am that we will definitely be leaving I would have been in despair if we crashed out with no deal .
It’s time to move on now , I don’t regret the election even though Labour got hammered, it was one final chance to save our EU membership .
With that over I think it’s incumbent on all of us to move past the Remain and Leave tags . We can now just go back to bickering over normal politics as we used to before Cameron decided to polarize the country !0 -
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.0 -
That post was so much better (relatively speaking) before that unnecessary edit about piccaninnies etc.EPG said:
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.0 -
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.0 -
ButlerCorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Webbe
Carden
Ali
Huq
Osamor
Siddiq
Er, Hodge, maybe?0 -
You got Birmingham Northfield for the first time since 1987.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich0 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?0 -
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?0 -
Mr. EPG, I've criticised Boris Johnson on many occasions. I'm quite surprised you've managed to miss all of them.
This election the alternative was even worse, and worse by a significant margin.0 -
Ave_it is just greedy. For him it's Ladywood or bust.Andy_JS said:
You got Birmingham Northfield for the first time since 1987.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich2 -
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.DayTripper said:1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
2. Probably still in mourning.1 -
I wonder if the exit poll is potentially particularly vulnerable in University/large student population seats? Because as i understand, the poll works in part by measuring change from responses at the previous election (so is even potentially insulated against voters not telling the truth as long as the level of non-truth telling is consistent with what happened last time). Postal voting also isn't much of a problem, as long as the levels are fairly consistent with the last election.MarqueeMark said:
The swings across much of the city of Birmingham were way down on the exit poll. Two failures by 100's in Coventry were a choker.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich
However student seats will have massive turnover in voters, both because they simply are different people from previously and also because they may note consistently vote in the same place (home/at university). And/or will employ more or less levels of postal voting dependent on when the election is held. And this will present presumably present more variables for the exit poll to deal with.
0 -
I wanted three CON gains in Coventry! And nearly got them!RobD said:
Ave_it is just greedy. For him it's Ladywood or bust.Andy_JS said:
You got Birmingham Northfield for the first time since 1987.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich0 -
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?0 -
Two universities. Although W&L clearly was a sterling effort despite that.Andy_JS said:
Labour just held onto two seats in Coventry with tiny majorities, and also unexpectedly held Warwick & Leamington.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.0 -
Not been around since the password debacle.Black_Rook said:
1. It happened, it's just that it was a youth minor tremor. People always overstate the potential effect of the youth vote: the 18-24 age group is a small slice of the electorate and only really crucial in seats that are both marginal and contain HE campuses. The youth vote has been credited with saving Canterbury and two seats in Coventry that were only just held for Labour, and I'm guessing that it may also have done for the Tory challenge in Bedford and in Warwick & Leamington, but I doubt if it made a decisive difference to Labour anywhere else.DayTripper said:1) what happened to the youthquake then?
2) where's @TheJezziah? Has he/she been banned? (I've not been monitoring this for a while). Seems odd that I haven't seen anything from him/her for a while.
2. Probably still in mourning.0 -
Earlsdon remainia and students in St Michaels cost the Tories Cov South.MarqueeMark said:
The swings across much of the city of Birmingham were way down on the exit poll. Two failures by 100's in Coventry were a choker.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich0 -
You wanted three, isn't that all of them? Insatiable.Ave_it said:
I wanted three CON gains in Coventry! And nearly got them!RobD said:
Ave_it is just greedy. For him it's Ladywood or bust.Andy_JS said:
You got Birmingham Northfield for the first time since 1987.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich
0 -
It was yes.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. EPG, I've criticised Boris Johnson on many occasions. I'm quite surprised you've managed to miss all of them.
This election the alternative was even worse, and worse by a significant margin.0 -
Are there two Hodge's? Not Margaret, surely?Endillion said:
ButlerCorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Webbe
Carden
Ali
Huq
Osamor
Siddiq
Er, Hodge, maybe?0 -
You've both missed two of the most obvious, Gardiner & McDonald.Endillion said:
ButlerCorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Webbe
Carden
Ali
Huq
Osamor
Siddiq
Er, Hodge, maybe?0 -
I haven’t taken a vow of obedience, so I won’t.Endillion said:
You really need to get out of this habit.ydoethur said:
Only be prior arrangement, and there has been nun.funkhauser said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Surely Abbott would be leader?0 -
It seems to be just a series of one-line talking points against anybody not on the Conservative side. Fine for the last nine years, but they will hold all the power for the next five, so it seems foolish to focus on the errors of those with no power.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. EPG, I've criticised Boris Johnson on many occasions. I'm quite surprised you've managed to miss all of them.
This election the alternative was even worse, and worse by a significant margin.0 -
Hodge was of course the person who effectively got Corbyn his seat in Islington in ‘83 because he was ideologically sound.alex_ said:
Are there two Hodge's? Not Margaret, surely?Endillion said:
ButlerCorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Webbe
Carden
Ali
Huq
Osamor
Siddiq
Er, Hodge, maybe?
I wonder if she now regrets this...0 -
Sarah Owens and Laura Hopkin.Jason said:
You've both missed two of the most obvious, Gardiner & McDonald.Endillion said:
ButlerCorrectHorseBattery said:
So who are the next lot?ydoethur said:
TrickettCorrectHorseBattery said:Let's work out who these 22 MPs are then
Burgon
Abbott
Lavery
Rayner
McDonnell
Corbyn
That’s one third of the way without any trouble at all.
Webbe
Carden
Ali
Huq
Osamor
Siddiq
Er, Hodge, maybe?0 -
I'm sorry you feel that way, but your prime minister does whip up disdain of the weak to empower the strong, so if you are going to criticise criticism of it, then own it. Tell us how funny is is to banter about "bumboys" or how Muslim women looking like postboxes is accurate and necessary. And thanks to a content-free campaign, you own this image for the next five years!RobD said:
That post was so much better (relatively speaking) before that unnecessary edit about piccaninnies etc.EPG said:
Identity politics worked just exceedingly well in the UK. Millions of people expressing their hate of rootless cosmopolitans, who support the party of the expatriate New York-born part-Turkish millionaire. Lots of people support Boris Johnson because they hate immigrants / "immigration" and like voting for a guy who propagates images of "piccaninnies" and Muslim women dressed as postboxes.viewcode said:
Well, yes. Identity politics may work in the US but GB is far more homogeneous than US[1] and a political stance that deprecates white males has a pretty hard upper bound here.nunu2 said:The thing about comparing the UK and American politics is this. The U.K is whiter and older than America. Therefore our constituents system is vulnerable to a nationalist more than the American electoral college!
[1] This is not to say that UK doesn't have racism: it does, but the different histories and ethnic mixes make it different.0 -
Was the swing in the west Midlands lower than the other Leave regions? Because that was what the polls were showing before the elections.RobD said:
You wanted three, isn't that all of them? Insatiable.Ave_it said:
I wanted three CON gains in Coventry! And nearly got them!RobD said:
Ave_it is just greedy. For him it's Ladywood or bust.Andy_JS said:
You got Birmingham Northfield for the first time since 1987.Ave_it said:
Or LAB gained Putney? 😀.peter_from_putney said:It's been little remarked upon, but Labour ultimately fared rather better than the exit poll had predicted, in fact 12 seats better, compared with the Tories, who did 3 seats worse. I believe this resulted, whisper it quietly, from a handful of disappointing results in the West Midlands, which failed to deliver much for the Blue Team.
In addition there was the odd isolated stonking good result for Labour, an example being Jon Cruddas' Dagenham & Rainham, he really must be an oustandingly good MP to emerge unscathed yet again.
We did ok in West Midlands. We never win anything in Birmingham. We gained seats in Wolverhampton and West Bromwich0
