FrancisUrquhart said:

Osborne and Balls are far better than the other channels.

Quite agree. Fascinating that Ozzy predicts that Boris will be a big-state, high-regulation interventionist.

rcs1000 said:

NorthernPowerhouse said:

Can we all have a few minutes silence for Sir John Major, who took a landslide and delivered a barely workable majority. And how miserable he must be at Boris taking a minority government and on the cusp of delivering an 80 seat majority.

Let's not forget, though, that Boris has been lucky in his enemies.

Major vs Corbyn would have been a stonking Conservative majority.

You only need to look at Scotland to see that Boris was beatable.

numbertwelve said:

handandmouse said:

I’m on Angela Rayner for next LAB leader, and I think Gareth Snell’s comment there will be echoed a few times more.

Looking at tonight’s outcome, it can’t be a full-on remainer. Lay Starmer, Back Rayner. That’s my advice.

That assumes Rayner will win her seat.

When I quoted that Edwina Currie tweet last weekend, and everyone was scathing...

Swindon N very dodgy result for LAB +7% swing Plymouth Sutton and that Bristol seat where Charlotte Leslie was could be back!

Swindon swing 7.5%

Swindon North!

rcs1000 said:

NorthernPowerhouse said:

Can we all have a few minutes silence for Sir John Major, who took a landslide and delivered a barely workable majority. And how miserable he must be at Boris taking a minority government and on the cusp of delivering an 80 seat majority.

Let's not forget, though, that Boris has been lucky in his enemies.

Major vs Corbyn would have been a stonking Conservative majority.

You say that but May failed. This is the result she should have got.

KentRising said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

None of this is a surprise. Labour members own it entirely. They were told time and again. They did not listen. They should hang their heads in shame.

Note, some Labour members fought this and tried damned hard to fix it despite being called 'Red Tory Scum'.

Time to break away, The SDP are back up and running these days. Big demand for a socially conservative, economically liberal party in the country.

The current SDP is not a home for the Blair wing of the Labour party.

Whoa. Mrs C used to work in Swindon North. It was a marginal then.

Belfast South : Panelist says Claire Hanna will win and there's no alliance surge in that constituency.

handandmouse said:

I’m on Angela Rayner for next LAB leader, and I think Gareth Snell’s comment there will be echoed a few times more.

Looking at tonight’s outcome, it can’t be a full-on remainer. Lay Starmer, Back Rayner. That’s my advice.

I agree. Rayner has been clever, perhaps by inclination rather than ambition, close to Corbyn, not a Remainer die hard, but not too close...

With these results, Labour are going to need a few elections to get back into power..thats 10 years or so.

Remember the Swindon swing was in line with the national swing in 2015 and 2017.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Seems to be the solution is a Northern Labour leader that stays far away from Remain and backs soft policies like railway nationalisation and maybe tuition fees - and that's it.

What's rail nationalisation and tuition fees going to do for the working class voters that have apparently deserted Labour?

What do you propose they offer? Tory-lite and support Brexit? I'm genuinely curious.

There has been remarkably little movement in Leave/Remain sentiment since the referendum, but the electorate today seems to have said the that the result stands and should be enacted. There is a tremendous amount of wok that has to happen before we leave in a meaningful sense. Labour could and should scrutinise this process from the perspective of accepting the result and looking to influence it to the benefit of the voters who have just told them to do one.

In terms of everything else, being lead by someone who isn't a terrorist honouring anitsemite would definitely help.

Slackbladder said:

This is going to be utterly brutal for labour yee gods.

I think the Midlands could be particularly bad for Labour.

swindon notth yougov mrp had con 54 lab 36

actual was con 59 lab 30

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Anyone with half a brain will be hoping Labour is destroyed totally tonight. Corbyn and co have allowed the Tories in to destroy the British constitution. Labour deserves to die for what it has enabled.

So then what... A one party state?

Nature abhors a vaccuum. If Labour dies something else will arise like a Phoenix from its ashes.

What the other party is called is largely irrelevant. It's what it does that matters.

The GOP techncially retains the same name as the party of Lincoln, but is unrecognisable. Lincoln would be a Democrat today.

It's the same in the Uk. The Tory party changes like Trigger's broom with each election.

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So if Alister Jack loses his seat who becomes the Tory Viceroy of Scotland?

Gove?

Are you hoping to apply for the job?

Only if it comes with a peerage.

I was conceived in Edinburgh, I'm as Scottish as they come.

Does anyone else feel that this is the result that Theresa May expected in 2017?

I almost feel this is what TM thought she'd get.

https://twitter.com/AHSavantaComRes/status/1205284668230316032?s=20

The end result could be:
CON 46%
LAB 28%

llef said:

swindon notth yougov mrp had con 54 lab 36

actual was con 59 lab 30

And the first MRP had it 53% to 35%.

We want Darlington!

Slackbladder said:

With these results, Labour are going to need a few elections to get back into power..thats 10 years or so.

I'm not sure about that.

These results are going to be bringing huge expectations about Brexit.

Jonathan said:

Winstanley said:

Jonathan said:

The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.

This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.

What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.

* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories.
* The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party .
* Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.

He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after it was lost.

Antisemitism scandal was arguably worse in 2017, with Ken and the mural etc. For all the talk, Labour has beefed up it's disciplinary response.

Some of 2019 was easily ridiculed, sure. But the main thrust, of patching up disintegrating public realm through taxation of the wealthy, public ownership of key utilities etc., the things that Corbyn is keen on and which wouldn't have been there under any other potential leader, are popular.

It'll never be settled obviously. Brexit is the defining fact of probably the next few decades so there's no use imagining what the Corbyn moment could have been without such a relentless focus on it.

TheValiant said:

Does anyone else feel that this is the result that Theresa May expected in 2017?

I almost feel this is what TM thought she'd get.

Yes- I agree 100%- and thought so now.. this was Theresa May's victory....

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

NorthernPowerhouse said:

Can we all have a few minutes silence for Sir John Major, who took a landslide and delivered a barely workable majority. And how miserable he must be at Boris taking a minority government and on the cusp of delivering an 80 seat majority.

Let's not forget, though, that Boris has been lucky in his enemies.

Major vs Corbyn would have been a stonking Conservative majority.

You say that but May failed. This is the result she should have got.

Sure, but Corbyn 2019 is not Corbyn 2017. And Major was a better salesman than Mrs May.

He was pre-Black Wednesday but then he was lucky in his opponent in facing the Welsh Windbag.

2 years may have changed Corbyn, 5 certainly did Major. Major 1997 was not Major 1992 either.

I suspect Newcastle UL might go CON!

More money for universal credit incoming with these sorts of seats being taken I reckon.

IanB2 said:

Swindon N big Tory win

The Honda effect seems to be weak.

RobD said:

TheValiant said:

Does anyone else feel that this is the result that Theresa May expected in 2017?

I almost feel this is what TM thought she'd get.

Yep.

The key difference is May went two years early when it wasn't yet clear Parliament was going to do everything possible to delay Brexit. She did not have a compelling enough reason to call a GE - as far as the average voter was concerned - in 2017. She already had a flippin' majority.

Pulpstar said:

More money for universal credit incoming with these sorts of seats being taken I reckon.

Not everyone in Blyth Valley is on benefits.

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

None of this is a surprise. Labour members own it entirely. They were told time and again. They did not listen. They should hang their heads in shame.

But will they, or will they react the same as they did when EdM lost in 2015, throw a massive tantrum and pick someone even more bonkers than Corbyn?

I think there will be some revisionism.

Not right away, but in time. Plenty of labour types I know swore they would never vote for the red team after Iraq. Guess what, they found a way to pull the level again. People find a way to break with the past.

The project will change. Cognitive dissonance is powerful.

Ave_it said:

I suspect Newcastle UL might go CON!

I hope so, he's in my fantasy football election team!

No seats yet with anything that might prefigure Lib Dem fortunes.

Philip_Thompson said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Anyone with half a brain will be hoping Labour is destroyed totally tonight. Corbyn and co have allowed the Tories in to destroy the British constitution. Labour deserves to die for what it has enabled.

So then what... A one party state?

Nature abhors a vaccuum. If Labour dies something else will arise like a Phoenix from its ashes.

Farage to be LOTO in 5 years.

StuartDickson said:

Glasgow count: Anas Sarwar Lab MSP: “a devastating night for Labour in Scotland “.

Hook this directly into my veins.

Winstanley said:

Jonathan said:

Winstanley said:

Jonathan said:

The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.

This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.

What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.

* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories.
* The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party .
* Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.

He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after it was lost.

Antisemitism scandal was arguably worse in 2017, with Ken and the mural etc. For all the talk, Labour has beefed up it's disciplinary response.

Some of 2019 was easily ridiculed, sure. But the main thrust, of patching up disintegrating public realm through taxation of the wealthy, public ownership of key utilities etc., the things that Corbyn is keen on and which wouldn't have been there under any other potential leader, are popular.

It'll never be settled obviously. Brexit is the defining fact of probably the next few decades so there's no use imagining what the Corbyn moment could have been without such a relentless focus on it.

It's true that Brexit seems to have been his most significant undoing, if you look at the 2017 result. Corbynites needed a win then to maintain the leftward shift.

llef said:

Andy_JS said:

llef said:

swindon notth yougov mrp had con 54 lab 36

actual was con 59 lab 30

And the first MRP had it 53% to 35%.

wasn't the first yougov mrp more accurate than teh last one in 2017 too ?

Yes

Winstanley said:

Jonathan said:

Winstanley said:

Jonathan said:

The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.

This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.

What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.

* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories.
* The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party .
* Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.

He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after it was lost.

Antisemitism scandal was arguably worse in 2017, with Ken and the mural etc. For all the talk, Labour has beefed up it's disciplinary response.

Some of 2019 was easily ridiculed, sure. But the main thrust, of patching up disintegrating public realm through taxation of the wealthy, public ownership of key utilities etc., the things that Corbyn is keen on and which wouldn't have been there under any other potential leader, are popular.

It'll never be settled obviously. Brexit is the defining fact of probably the next few decades so there's no use imagining what the Corbyn moment could have been without such a relentless focus on it.

He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.

You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.

Ave_it said:

Swindon N very dodgy result for LAB +7% swing Plymouth Sutton and that Bristol seat where Charlotte Leslie was could be back!

Bristol NW. She's not standing, which is a shame as she seemed sound. Bloke called Mark Weston instead.

MY GOD I HOPE DARREN JONES GETS THE BOOT. 45% chance on BBC exit poll.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I feel sorry for the young couple I saw in the supermarket earlier buying supplies for the big night where they planned to stay up and watching Jezza's win.

I'm sure that they can watch it somewhere on the internet.

Watching election coverage, with some of these wonderful constituency names, it feels a tad boring to merely live in Georgia's 7th congressional district.

Interesting to look at the leadership rankings - they got closer during the election, and made it seem close.

However, the original relationship is made on figures 2 months before, which pointed to a 13/14% lead.


https://twitter.com/MoraleCurry/status/1189145110765887498/photo/1

FrancisUrquhart said:

I feel sorry for the young couple I saw in the supermarket earlier buying supplies for the big night where they planned to stay up and watching Jezza's win.

I wish we had the Facebook laugh etc reaction for this and not just like.

Con gain reading east

Wow, motivated electorate.

https://twitter.com/skynewsniall/status/1205282985953710086?s=20

El_Capitano said:

No seats yet with anything that might prefigure Lib Dem fortunes.

LD vote share does seem to be holding up respectably so far, but I agree not LD core areas.

FrancisUrquhart said:

speedy2 said:

The end result could be:
CON 46%
LAB 28%

Clearly all those massive queues were there to vote for Boris....

could be - my sister took her hubby to vote for Boris in Stevenage - he is a visceral working class anti-tory who hates Corbyn - he normally sits out elections as a waste of time but today he did the unthinkable and voted Boris