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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first results sees the red wall penetrated

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  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    California and New York vote Democrats.
    Arkansas and W.Virginia vote Republicans.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    Pulpstar said:

    Kate Hoey far more common a labour person than the party would like to believe

    NI-born unionists who vote for far-right parties are not very common at all in the GB Labour party.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Brom said:

    Love that Canterbury is an 88% Tory chance. Kent is blue!

    Mapmakers are going to run out of Blue.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    If Labour want these seats back, they need to unanimously come out in support of Brexit tomorrow morning.

    Nope. Allow the majority Tories to Brexit then crucify empty-handed Tory MPs in places like Blyth Valley. Then campaign to rejoin or whatever. Probably too late to save half the union!
    This result has killed Rejoin for a decade.
    Rejoin will never transpire as a thing. Once we Brexit, that'll be it.
  • Ian Murray blaming the potential loss of Edinburgh South on Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Peston: Big Trade Union leaders will decide Lab future.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Kate Hoey far more common a labour person than the party would like to believe

    Interesting observation. (By 'common' I'm assuming you mean typical rather than anything derogatory!)
  • The Liberal Democrat’s MUST disband as a political party.

    Either you support labour or you support tories with first past the post system.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    edited December 2019
    Sunderland Central:

    Lab 18,336
    Con 15,372
    BRX 5,047
    LD 3,025
    Grn 1,212
    Ind 484
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,411
    Results seem to be coming in far more slowly than. Past GEs. Presumably the weather/tone of year
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Ah, that BONG sound.
  • EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    If Labour want these seats back, they need to unanimously come out in support of Brexit tomorrow morning.

    Nope. Allow the majority Tories to Brexit then crucify empty-handed Tory MPs in places like Blyth Valley. Then campaign to rejoin or whatever. Probably too late to save half the union!
    This result has killed Rejoin for a decade.
    Rejoin will never transpire as a thing. Once we Brexit, that'll be it.
    Not only rejoin but Labour for a decade.
  • Another big swing against labour in Sunderland Central. but no doubt to the BXP
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    If Labour want these seats back, they need to unanimously come out in support of Brexit tomorrow morning.

    Nope. Allow the majority Tories to Brexit then crucify empty-handed Tory MPs in places like Blyth Valley. Then campaign to rejoin or whatever. Probably too late to save half the union!
    This result has killed Rejoin for a decade.
    Rejoin will never transpire as a thing. Once we Brexit, that'll be it.
    Same way the UK was totally content with the EU after 1975.
  • Belfast North : Some Areas Had 80% Approx Turnout, Ardoyne And Few Unionist Areas. Still On A Knife Edge. #Exciting
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Virtually no swing Newcastle E

    Sunderland C good for CON. 7% swing. Swing will be less in Cities especially London!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,411

    The Liberal Democrat’s MUST disband as a political party.

    Either you support labour or you support tories with first past the post system.

    FPTP is what should be disbanded
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Brexit Party has more votes than Labour majority in Sunderland South.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    kyf_100 said:

    Somebody needs to remake Our Friends in the North on a Netflix budget.

    When the Boat Comes In might be more appropriate.
  • Lots of Bolsover chat on Twitter. Tories confident.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Brom said:

    Love that Canterbury is an 88% Tory chance. Kent is blue!

    I might pop open the Lipton Ice Tea cooling in the fridge if that result comes in.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    If Labour want these seats back, they need to unanimously come out in support of Brexit tomorrow morning.

    Nope. Allow the majority Tories to Brexit then crucify empty-handed Tory MPs in places like Blyth Valley. Then campaign to rejoin or whatever. Probably too late to save half the union!
    This result has killed Rejoin for a decade.
    Rejoin will never transpire as a thing. Once we Brexit, that'll be it.
    yes, but there will be a slow and steady drift back to the EU with future deals
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Sunderland C Lab hold by 3000
  • Menzies Campbell (LD): massive dissatisfaction with Westminster in England as well as in Scotland.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Jonathan said:

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Those that don't remember the past are doomed to repeat it.

    Foot 1983
    Corbyn 2019
    Corbyn is much, much, much worse than Foot was. No-one would have ever accused Foot of being an anti-Semitic terrorist sympathiser or anything remotely similar, and he was on the right side in vehemently opposing appeasement and Soviet repression in Eastern Europe.
    I agree. Michael Foot, for all his left-wingery, was a decent, well-meaning man who would have abhorred some of the rhetoric of some current Labour figures.
    Michael Foot was a great man. His contributions to freedom during the Second World War are particularly noteworthy.

    Next to Foot, Corbyn is a malevolent pygmy.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,121
    Tim_B said:

    Green guy on beeb says this is a bad night for the climate

    He's right. It's freezing out there.
  • MikeL said:

    Peston: Big Trade Union leaders will decide Lab future.

    Labour need to break the union link completely.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Labour "hang on" in Sunderland central ......
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    In all seriousness the result may impede Rejoin by losing Scotland or, more likely, Northern Ireland, during the Brexit 2020s.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Come back Alan Johnson and Ed Balls....FFS these Maomentum student politics tw@ts need to shut up and bugger off.

    Indeed. Balls is a fucking class act. How has Labour lost these guys?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    The Liberal Democrat’s MUST disband as a political party.

    Either you support labour or you support tories with first past the post system.

    Just nonsense.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327

    North Down Update : The Alliance Party (Stephen Farry) Vote Count Will Increase Immensely.

    There Is A Possibility There Will Be A Re Count. (North Down)

    The DUP are still narrow favourites..
  • Live scraping should be up and running now.....

    I'm seeing just the first two results.
    Checking now.....GRRRHHH...Fire fighting here, thanks BBC for totally changing your webpage.

    Should be correct now....
    I can see three.
  • The Green Party MUST disband as a political party.

    You either join the Tory party or join the Labour Party while we continue to have first past the post system.

    EVERY LIBERAL DEMOCRAT HAS BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS
  • MikeL said:

    Peston: Big Trade Union leaders will decide Lab future.

    Well, that’s them even more f*cked then.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The other Mr Rook relates to me a report from a Sky journalist confirming the exit poll in East Dunbartonshire, i.e. he thinks that Swinson has lost.

    Just an opinion, not certain knowledge obviously, but...
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    North East CON gains to come:
    - Darlington nailed on
    - Bishop Auckland nailed on squared
    - Stockton S - nailed on
    - Durham NW probably
    - Stockton N, Sedgefield unlikely
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited December 2019

    Jonathan said:

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Those that don't remember the past are doomed to repeat it.

    Foot 1983
    Corbyn 2019
    Corbyn is much, much, much worse than Foot was. No-one would have ever accused Foot of being an anti-Semitic terrorist sympathiser or anything remotely similar, and he was on the right side in vehemently opposing appeasement and Soviet repression in Eastern Europe.
    I agree. Michael Foot, for all his left-wingery, was a decent, well-meaning man who would have abhorred some of the rhetoric of some current Labour figures.
    Michael Foot was a great man. His contributions to freedom during the Second World War are particularly noteworthy.

    Next to Foot, Corbyn is a malevolent pygmy.
    Another interesting point: Foot was one of the authors of the infamous "Guilty Men".

    Now imagine Corbyn coming up with an argument that appeasement was wrong.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    Chateau Musar 2003
  • Jonathan said:

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Those that don't remember the past are doomed to repeat it.

    Foot 1983
    Corbyn 2019
    Corbyn is much, much, much worse than Foot was. No-one would have ever accused Foot of being an anti-Semitic terrorist sympathiser or anything remotely similar, and he was on the right side in vehemently opposing appeasement and Soviet repression in Eastern Europe.
    I agree. Michael Foot, for all his left-wingery, was a decent, well-meaning man who would have abhorred some of the rhetoric of some current Labour figures.
    Michael Foot was a great man. His contributions to freedom during the Second World War are particularly noteworthy.

    Next to Foot, Corbyn is a malevolent pygmy.
    Foot was a disaster as leader, but he was a highly intelligent man, and I believe an honourable one.

    Corbyn is a disgrace to this country.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Results seem to be coming in far more slowly than. Past GEs. Presumably the weather/tone of year

    Higher turnout?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    What classical music do you suggest listening to whilst watching the red
    Dominoes fall?
  • My local town.

    I think I just let out a little bit of wee.

  • North Down Will Be The First Northern Ireland Result To Be Declared (Around 1AM).

    North Down Will Be IMMENSELY Close Between Alex Easton (D.U.P) & Stephen Farry (Alliance Party).
  • Ave_it said:

    North East CON gains to come:
    - Darlington nailed on
    - Bishop Auckland nailed on squared
    - Stockton S - nailed on
    - Durham NW probably
    - Stockton N, Sedgefield unlikely

    Bye Laura. You were the future once.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    The Liberal Democrat’s MUST disband as a political party.

    Either you support labour or you support tories with first past the post system.

    No, we need to change our electoral system to one that broadly reflects what people voted for.
  • Osborne dropping truth bombs on labour.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    A straw we can grasp.

    That's how exit polls work.
  • Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    Smirnoff

  • Resulting getting updated for everybody?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    MikeL said:

    Peston: Big Trade Union leaders will decide Lab future.

    Labour need to break the union link completely.
    You are quite wrong on that. The Unions get a bad press and are fundamentally misunderstood by Tories. They provide not only a ton of cash, but a legion of stoical, hard working pragmatic members.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    The Green Party MUST disband as a political party.

    You either join the Tory party or join the Labour Party while we continue to have first past the post system.

    EVERY LIBERAL DEMOCRAT HAS BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS

    Yes, this is everyone but Labour's fault. :D
  • 74% turnout in Stockton South. That's a lot
  • MikeL said:

    Peston: Big Trade Union leaders will decide Lab future.

    Well, that’s them even more f*cked then.
    Unless they decide after Len has stood down.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Both West Bromwich seats expected to go Tory, although East will be close.
  • Ave_it said:

    North East CON gains to come:
    - Darlington nailed on
    - Bishop Auckland nailed on squared
    - Stockton S - nailed on
    - Durham NW probably
    - Stockton N, Sedgefield unlikely

    Bye Laura. You were the future once.
    Briefly.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Resulting getting updated for everybody?

    Yep, thanks!
  • Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    I'm about to have nice chilled glass of Sancerre and some Camembert.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    If Labour want these seats back, they need to unanimously come out in support of Brexit tomorrow morning.

    Nope. Allow the majority Tories to Brexit then crucify empty-handed Tory MPs in places like Blyth Valley. Then campaign to rejoin or whatever. Probably too late to save half the union!
    This result has killed Rejoin for a decade.
    Rejoin will never transpire as a thing. Once we Brexit, that'll be it.
    Same way the UK was totally content with the EU after 1975.
    In 1975 Conservatives campaigned pro-Common Market, Labour campaigned against.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    Resulting getting updated for everybody?

    Yep, but graphs static for now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Police investigating voter impersonation in Paisley!
  • Douglas Alexander, former Brownite MP: comfortably the worst defeat for the Labour Party since 1935. Jeremy Corbyn owns the defeat.

    Alexander has “lost count of the number of voters who have told him that they cannot vote Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn.” He says that Momentum will blame Brexit, but the truth is that it was Corbyn.
  • Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    I'm a pleb. Black sheep.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LAB concede Bishop Auckland per BBC. I suspect 10,000+ maj
  • Resulting getting updated for everybody?

    Yes, bravo!
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,327

    Belfast North : Some Areas Had 80% Approx Turnout, Ardoyne And Few Unionist Areas. Still On A Knife Edge. #Exciting

    You do know Ardoyne includes a Unionist community right?
  • RobD said:

    Resulting getting updated for everybody?

    Yep, but graphs static for now.
    Yes I know, firefighting those at the moment....
  • Jonathan said:

    MikeL said:

    Peston: Big Trade Union leaders will decide Lab future.

    Labour need to break the union link completely.
    You are quite wrong on that. The Unions get a bad press and are fundamentally misunderstood by Tories. They provide not only a ton of cash, but a legion of stoical, hard working pragmatic members.
    But they are controlled by a political hard left which work sometimes against their own members. Until that gets reformed, then the power will remain with those dinosaurs
  • Multiple voter fraud allegations in Scotland. People turning up to vote only to be told they'd already voted :open_mouth:

    Next General Election must require ID cards after this.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    glw said:

    A straw we can grasp.

    That's how exit polls work.
    Scotland has proportionally less sampling points than the rest of the UK.
  • Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    Smirnoff

    Finishing the South Ridge Cuvee I opened at 10pm. Soon opening the Dalmore.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828

    RobD said:

    Resulting getting updated for everybody?

    Yep, but graphs static for now.
    Yes I know, firefighting those at the moment....
    Excellent work nonetheless.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    74% turnout in Stockton South. That's a lot

    14% higher than Sunderland Central.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    The SNP demonstrate what the left could have done in this election.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,490
    Margaret Beckett was one of those. she could be in trouble in what has been a safe labour seat for 30 years
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Average swing after 5 results 7.5%.
    Swingometer gives a majority of 116.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Esher and Walton

    bet365 Cons 1/2
    Skybet LibDem 7/2

    take your pick
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    speedy2 said:

    California and New York vote Democrats.
    Arkansas and W.Virginia vote Republicans.
    But that wasn't always so.

    California and NY voted Republican in the very recent past, whil Arkansas and W Virginia voted Democrat. (And, indeed, one of WV's Senators is a Democrat.)
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Resulting getting updated for everybody?

    Yep, but graphs static for now.
    Yes I know, firefighting those at the moment....
    Excellent work nonetheless.
    Hear hear.
  • Is Boris now thinking “fuck it I might as well sell the NHS”?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Multiple voter fraud allegations in Scotland. People turning up to vote only to be told they'd already voted :open_mouth:

    Next General Election must require ID cards after this.

    We don't have ID cards in this country!
  • IanB2 said:

    The Liberal Democrat’s MUST disband as a political party.

    Either you support labour or you support tories with first past the post system.

    Just nonsense.
    Jo Swinson is a Tory. She pandered to austerity to get a government job.

    And she refused to stand down Liberal Democrat’s in labour seats. Jo Swinson career has been to deliver the tories result after result.

    We have a broken country because the Liberal Democrat’s won’t back down. The party is a disgrace.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    The Green Party MUST disband as a political party.

    You either join the Tory party or join the Labour Party while we continue to have first past the post system.

    EVERY LIBERAL DEMOCRAT HAS BLOOD ON THEIR HANDS

    The Lib Dems aren't at fault. They're too weak to be blamed for any of this. Labour's ineptitude is entirely its own doing.
  • Come back Alan Johnson and Ed Balls....FFS these Maomentum student politics tw@ts need to shut up and bugger off.

    Indeed. Balls is a fucking class act. How has Labour lost these guys?
    Ask @TheScreamingEagles he might have a clue.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,644
    Tim_B said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    tlg86 said:

    If Labour want these seats back, they need to unanimously come out in support of Brexit tomorrow morning.

    Nope. Allow the majority Tories to Brexit then crucify empty-handed Tory MPs in places like Blyth Valley. Then campaign to rejoin or whatever. Probably too late to save half the union!
    This result has killed Rejoin for a decade.
    Rejoin will never transpire as a thing. Once we Brexit, that'll be it.
    Same way the UK was totally content with the EU after 1975.
    In 1975 Conservatives campaigned pro-Common Market, Labour campaigned against.
    Half-right, but entirely irrelevant. Maybe it will reverse next time again. Maybe it will never happen. Maybe Blyth Valley will not vote Conservative again after Brexit is done and Corbyn is ditched, actually, I find that one more likely than the others.
  • speedy2 said:

    Average swing after 5 results 7.5%.
    Swingometer gives a majority of 116.

    Been rather Leave heavy seats so far mind
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    Water
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Esher and Walton

    bet365 Cons 1/2
    Skybet LibDem 7/2

    take your pick

    Given the trends tonight that is surely free money?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    A straw we can grasp.

    That is how an exit poll works.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Jeez why disc

    Come back Alan Johnson and Ed Balls....FFS these Maomentum student politics tw@ts need to shut up and bugger off.

    Indeed. Balls is a fucking class act. How has Labour lost these guys?
    He was beaten by that clueless Andrea Jenkyns !
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    What classical music do you suggest listening to whilst watching the red
    Dominoes fall?
    Sheep may safely graze? Siegfried's funeral music? Ride of the Valkyries?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    California and New York vote Democrats.
    Arkansas and W.Virginia vote Republicans.
    But that wasn't always so.

    California and NY voted Republican in the very recent past, whil Arkansas and W Virginia voted Democrat. (And, indeed, one of WV's Senators is a Democrat.)
    The transformation is the same and in the same direction.
  • Is a pity Corbyn has lost, he'd have gotten on well with Trump's friends.


    https://twitter.com/snmrrw/status/1204900513415913472
  • Byronic said:

    I've moved on to Chateau Talbot, 2009

    Others?

    Water
    Water
  • glwglw Posts: 9,871
    Alistair said:

    glw said:

    A straw we can grasp.

    That's how exit polls work.
    Scotland has proportionally less sampling points than the rest of the UK.
    Sure but she makes it sound like something funny was going on, when it sounds just like every other exit poll.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    speedy2 said:

    Average swing after 5 results 7.5%.
    Swingometer gives a majority of 116.

    Big majority in the north though. Think the swing will be much less in south.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    The ghost of Thatcher might be being expunged in the coalfields
This discussion has been closed.