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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first results sees the red wall penetrated

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  • glwglw Posts: 9,871

    Can someone check on Owen Jones?

    Not sounding too good.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205245084050083840
    Good. One of the worst of the current crop of pretendy journalists.

    John Harris knew what was coming.
    Yep, Labour supporters should even listen to Dan Hodges, as Owen's really just a cheerleader.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    Labour, a party for London by London.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Very happy to see Bridget Phillipson in Houghton and Sunderland survive the bloodbath .
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    My tip from 30 min ago of 15 on 380-89 band now into 6.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    EPG said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?

    Poor Anna. She's going to be apoplectic
    She's probably crying. Again. Heh
    You were pretending to be a remainer a few months ago.
    :)
  • All those nervous bedwetting PB Tories over the past few days, doubting the steady poll leads... Shame on you!

    Some of us never doubted the tactics of locking Boris in the fridge!
  • llef said:

    llef said:

    yougov mrp had con 37 lab 45

    for blyth valley
    The YouGov MRP is yesterdays chip paper.
  • Hmmm. Curtice casts doubt on SNP numbers.

    I took it they have less coverage.

    Yes, I think it might well be somewhat out, especially since there are so many close contests, with four parties in play.

    Could mean that the Tory majority is understated, of course!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Swindon N soon! :lol:

    Expect a smaller swing. Maj now 15%. Might go up to 23%. If swing more than 5% could be dodgy for LAB in South
  • EPG said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Is anyone else consistently Twitter searching Ian Dunt, Jolyon Maugham, Anna Soubry. Mr Grieve, et al?

    Poor Anna. She's going to be apoplectic
    She's probably crying. Again. Heh
    You were pretending to be a remainer a few months ago.
    That would have been after a few drinks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    See you on the other side, BJO.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    YOU KNOW WHAT?

    YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS?

    NEVER FUCK WITH THE BRITISH PEOPLE

    IF THEY SAY LEAVE, THEY REALLY MEAN LEAVE

    SO IF THEY SAY DO IT, THEY MEAN DO IT, SO YOU JUST FUCKING GET IT DONE

    We’re really just watching our voting system at work.

    Underneath the seat results, roughly half the voters plumped for the Tories and BXP and roughly half for the LibDems, Labour and nationalists. Public opinion is no further forward than in 2016.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    YOU KNOW WHAT?

    YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS?

    NEVER FUCK WITH THE BRITISH PEOPLE

    IF THEY SAY LEAVE, THEY REALLY MEAN LEAVE

    SO IF THEY SAY DO IT, THEY MEAN DO IT, SO YOU JUST FUCKING GET IT DONE

    Seems so. I did think that, but was told "that was then, this is now" etc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,927
    llef said:

    llef said:

    yougov mrp had con 37 lab 45

    for blyth valley
    YouGov pretty much spot on then
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:

    Congrats to Robert Smithson.

    Fantastic prediction.

    My prediction wasn't far off.
    You and Sean Fear did well.
    My call of 1983 result wasn't that far off.
    Yep - fair play
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got a link to the November YouGov MRP pdf?

    https://bit.ly/2snr4Rw
    In the November poll the MRP had Blyth Valley
    37 Con
    43 Labour
    9 Brexit
    7 LD
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    llef said:

    llef said:

    yougov mrp had con 37 lab 45

    for blyth valley
    The YouGov MRP is yesterdays chip paper.
    The first one was not so bad.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Can someone check on Owen Jones?

    Not sounding too good.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205245084050083840
    Jones is a fool.
    On that we can agree
    The epitome of the current Labour malady: middle class uni grad that thinks he knows best.
  • Just got to my hotel in Berlin. Pleased I won’t need to seek asylum from the red terror tomorrow.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    YOU KNOW WHAT?

    YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS?

    NEVER FUCK WITH THE BRITISH PEOPLE

    IF THEY SAY LEAVE, THEY REALLY MEAN LEAVE

    SO IF THEY SAY DO IT, THEY MEAN DO IT, SO YOU JUST FUCKING GET IT DONE

    Seems so. I did think that, but was told "that was then, this in now" etc
    The numbers still wanting to leave or remain haven't shifted ; the organisation of leavers compared to remainers has, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    My NI friend reckons Dodds might be in trouble
  • The DUP just realised they have no influence now at all...
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited December 2019

    All those nervous bedwetting PB Tories over the past few days, doubting the steady poll leads... Shame on you!

    Some of us never doubted the tactics of locking Boris in the fridge!

    Hands up - I wobbled. I'm bang to rights. I thought there would be a Tory majority (up until 30 mins before the exit poll), but nothing like what it looks like.

    2017 was an outlier. An aberration. But it made us all nervous.
  • Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Take care John
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359
    dr_spyn said:

    Some police action in Scotland re impersonation.

    Paisley.
  • Jason said:

    Labour's vote share catastrophic. A fearful and bloody slaughter on the cards.

    SLab 2015 was a bit of forewarning.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited December 2019

    Can someone check on Owen Jones?

    Not sounding too good.

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205245084050083840
    Good. One of the worst of the current crop of pretendy journalists.

    John Harris knew what was coming.
    John Harris also 'knew' it was coming in 2017.

    He was wrong then and right now.
  • The DUP just realised they have no influence now at all...

    LOL.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Andy_JS said:

    John Curtice: less confident of the exit poll in Scotland due to fewer sampling points.

    They got SNP correct to within one seat last time. Let’s see.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    YOU KNOW WHAT?

    YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS?

    NEVER FUCK WITH THE BRITISH PEOPLE

    IF THEY SAY LEAVE, THEY REALLY MEAN LEAVE

    SO IF THEY SAY DO IT, THEY MEAN DO IT, SO YOU JUST FUCKING GET IT DONE

    Seems so. I did think that, but was told "that was then, this in now" etc
    The numbers still wanting to leave or remain haven't shifted ; the organisation of leavers compared to remainers has, though.
    Yeah! More people wanted to Leave!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    Ave_it said:

    Swindon N soon! :lol:

    Expect a smaller swing. Maj now 15%. Might go up to 23%. If swing more than 5% could be dodgy for LAB in South

    Swindon N is 29.8% boomer. If my theory is correct I would expect a smaller than national swing.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    Starmer would have most likely lost, but he would not have been humiliated. This is much much more than Brexit. Corbyn was front and centre of the election campaign and the British people said no.
  • Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    And what would have happened in the north leave seats...

    If anything Corbyns Brexit policy was the smartest part of his policy work.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    As mentioned, the collected results so far look strong, but not like an 80 majority. There could be huge regional swings and variations, though.

    Incorrect. Tories are over performing in more rural seats doing less better in city seats (but still well).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    The first MRP had Blyth Valley remaining Labour by 6%.
    The second MRP had it remaining Labour by 8%.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Nina Hussain is a gorgeous woman, but honestly that dress; looks like she’s wearing a bin bag.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827
    12.7 million dollars available to lay at 1.02.

    :D
  • NeilVW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    John Curtice: less confident of the exit poll in Scotland due to fewer sampling points.

    They got SNP correct to within one seat last time. Let’s see.
    Yes I hope it means it might be wrong. It might mean it’s right but, like us, he’s saying “surely not”.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Tragic to see Danny Wilson still think he can have some influence over the government! The DUP have been totally screwed and got what they deserved !
  • The DUP just realised they have no influence now at all...

    Ha ha.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Those that don't remember the past are doomed to repeat it.

    Foot 1983
    Corbyn 2019
  • Hmmm. Curtice casts doubt on SNP numbers.

    I took it they have less coverage.

    I want to be very wrong but I fear they won't be far off.
  • Pulpstar said:

    My NI friend reckons Dodds might be in trouble

    Sweet.
  • https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1205272251274350594

    Jess going for it then, seems like all the lefties are out of the question.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    In my opinion it's more to do with Corbyn than Brexit. I know a lot of people will dispute that due to the results probably being better for Labour in Remain areas.
  • I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Have a good nights rest BJO -

    It must be hard for you and I hope we can start healing wounds especially if labour can rid themselves of Corbyn
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Foxy said:

    I never thought I would see the day that Blyth Valley voted for a Tory

    Blyth Valley has an unusually old population. High boomer count. 36.5% boomers

    Houghton and Sunderland South 35.9% boomer.

    National average is 31.7%

    Newcastle Central is 22.1% boomer.

    I think this is why we are seeing differential swings between these seats.


    Quite so. We'll see Labour hold up much better in student/metropolitan seats, but they'll take a hammering outside them.
  • I'm hearing it is all over for Pidcock.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    In my opinion it's more to do with Corbyn than Brexit. I know a lot of people will dispute that due to the results probably being better for Labour in Remain areas.
    I don't doubt that it had a massive impact. But my point is that I don't see how a more pro-Remain leader would have stopped the BXP in the North from taking Labour votes?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    YOU KNOW WHAT?

    YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS?

    NEVER FUCK WITH THE BRITISH PEOPLE

    IF THEY SAY LEAVE, THEY REALLY MEAN LEAVE

    SO IF THEY SAY DO IT, THEY MEAN DO IT, SO YOU JUST FUCKING GET IT DONE

    We’re really just watching our voting system at work.

    Underneath the seat results, roughly half the voters plumped for the Tories and BXP and roughly half for the LibDems, Labour and nationalists. Public opinion is no further forward than in 2016.
    You guys never learn.
  • Spreadsheet seems to be kicking in.
  • Can anyone point to a fourth term government being returned with an increased majority? It must be unprecedented. Maybe there's something weird in the 19th century, but otherwise?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    edited December 2019
    Bolsover predicted Tory gain.

    Durham NW as well.
  • murali_s said:

    Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    Starmer would have most likely lost, but he would not have been humiliated. This is much much more than Brexit. Corbyn was front and centre of the election campaign and the British people said no.
    Don't underestimate the importance of Corbyn and Swinson not co-operating, though. That looks like it may have been an absolute disaster for Remain.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Pulpstar said:

    My NI friend reckons Dodds might be in trouble

    Please make it happen !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827
    ydoethur said:

    Bolsover predicted Tory gain.

    :open_mouth:

    Seriously, someone check Bootle. :D
  • Is there anyone here not pleased to see the end of the DUP’s influence on the government?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    And what would have happened in the north leave seats...

    If anything Corbyns Brexit policy was the smartest part of his policy work.
    True.
    Corbyn's 2017 Brexit policy was more in line.
    Following the Remainers after February was a big error.
  • The DUP just realised they have no influence now at all...


    PODUPWAS
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Have a good nights rest BJO -

    It must be hard for you and I hope we can start healing wounds especially if labour can rid themselves of Corbyn
    It took 14 years to recover from this last time around.
  • I'm hearing it is all over for Pidcock.

    YES YES MAKE IT HAPPEN
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    edited December 2019
    Batley and Spen. :o
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    ITV news have Labour on 4.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    The DUP just realised they have no influence now at all...

    Good. Fed up with them.

    Nutters of all shapes can now fade back into well-deserved obscurity. DUP, ERG, Corbynites. Bye bye. Piss off.
  • Byronic said:

    YOU KNOW WHAT?

    YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS?

    NEVER FUCK WITH THE BRITISH PEOPLE

    IF THEY SAY LEAVE, THEY REALLY MEAN LEAVE

    SO IF THEY SAY DO IT, THEY MEAN DO IT, SO YOU JUST FUCKING GET IT DONE

    I also enjoy the drug: cocaine.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    murali_s said:

    Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    Starmer would have most likely lost, but he would not have been humiliated. This is much much more than Brexit. Corbyn was front and centre of the election campaign and the British people said no.
    I just want to acknowledge your gracious earlier comment about the result

    Good luck in returning your party to sanity
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Andy_JS said:

    Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    In my opinion it's more to do with Corbyn than Brexit. I know a lot of people will dispute that due to the results probably being better for Labour in Remain areas.
    I don't doubt that it had a massive impact. But my point is that I don't see how a more pro-Remain leader would have stopped the BXP in the North from taking Labour votes?
    I think that is right.

    The remarkable result was in 2017, when Corby convinced both Labour Leavers & Remainers he was on their side.

    Labour should have voted for May's deal. Then, the next election really would have been dominated by the issues on which Corbyn was strong.
  • Exit Poll putting Warrington North not just Warrington South as a potential Tory gain. Warrington North is rock solid safe Labour.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Have a good nights rest BJO -

    It must be hard for you and I hope we can start healing wounds especially if labour can rid themselves of Corbyn
    It took 14 years to recover from this last time around.
    Who will get rid of the poison of the hard left?

    I really want to believe you can do it - but they hold the power now
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Lord, but I hate Jeremy Vine
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Hemsworth and Cardiff North predicted Labour holds.

    That would be surprising on these figures. But the whole bloody thing is surprising.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1205272251274350594

    Jess going for it then, seems like all the lefties are out of the question.

    She's mental. Labour would be wise to avoid at all costs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    I said yesterday that Enfield Southgate might be close, and it's now being forecast to go the Tories.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Ave it calling Derby SOUTH for CON!!!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    When this is all done it'll be fascinating to see how closely the electoral map in England and Wales resembles that of Leave vs Remain - particularly if we look at swing. There may be a lot of Tory holds on *reduced* majorities in Hampshire, Surrey, Sussex, the Thames Valley and parts of Hertfordshire.
  • houndtang said:

    turns out calling people racists and fools for three and half years isn't a vote winner.

    Cf Scottish Unionists.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    murali_s said:

    Can I just make a quick point: this is a disaster due to Brexit but also Corbyn.

    I can't believe a more pro-Remain leader in Starmer would have undone a Tory majority.

    Starmer would have most likely lost, but he would not have been humiliated. This is much much more than Brexit. Corbyn was front and centre of the election campaign and the British people said no.
    Don't underestimate the importance of Corbyn and Swinson not co-operating, though. That looks like it may have been an absolute disaster for Remain.
    I think Labour were screwed either way . If they entered a Remain alliance they would have suffered even more in those Labour Leave areas if that’s possible !

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Artist said:

    ITV news have Labour on 4.

    I think they will get more than that.
  • Motherwell count: “lots of SNP smiles”

    Counting 4 seats here: 3 SNP and 1 SLab (Coatbridge).

    SLab saying that they have increased their majority in Coatbridge!!

    Both SLab and SNP saying Exit Poll is WRONG.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    I am off to bed shortly

    Was told earlier The Beast of Bolsover was ahead but if Exit Poll correct that was clearly wrong.

    PB Tories enjoy the next few hours

    Have a good nights rest BJO -

    It must be hard for you and I hope we can start healing wounds especially if labour can rid themselves of Corbyn
    It took 14 years to recover from this last time around.
    Who will get rid of the poison of the hard left?

    I really want to believe you can do it - but they hold the power now
    The unions hold the power.
  • Labour electing Thornberry or Starmer as leader would be about as barmy as them electing Corbyn, in the face of this.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    I'm hearing it is all over for Pidcock.

    YES YES MAKE IT HAPPEN
    Yes Pidcock long gone possibly by 3,000
  • SNP briefing that they may have taken Edinburgh South.

    HUGE, IF TRUE.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited December 2019
    I shouldn’t be smug. But I can’t help but be so when I think of how poorly the puffed up remainer rebel alliance played their card in he past 6-12 months.

    Grieve, Boles, Soubry, Chukka, Bercow - all thought they were so clever and could scheme to ignore the will of the people.

    Well, the people just gave their verdict on that behaviour. It turns out they rather like to have their votes respected.

    Don’t mess with the British voters when they give you an instruction.

    Boris would do well to heed that message from his new voters. He must not let them down.
  • Great threadheader.

    Was my first thought when I saw the headline:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbrjRKB586s
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    If Labour want these seats back, they need to unanimously come out in support of Brexit tomorrow morning.
  • Not sure what that translates too but I'll take it ;)
  • Northern Ireland Update : Claire Hanna Has Had A HUGELY Positive Campaign.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Chesterfield:

    Lab 51% chance, Con 49%.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Allegations of voting fraud are being investigated at a number of locations in Scotland as counting is under way in the 2019 UK general election.

    Renfrewshire Council said a possible case of personation had been reported to police in the Paisley and Renfrewshire North constituency.

    At the Glasgow count, three cases are also being looked at while one is alleged in Stirling.

    BBC.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Motherwell count: “lots of SNP smiles”

    Counting 4 seats here: 3 SNP and 1 SLab (Coatbridge).

    SLab saying that they have increased their majority in Coatbridge!!

    Both SLab and SNP saying Exit Poll is WRONG.

    I had a nibble on SLab in Coatbridge.
  • Perth count: SNP confident of Wishart hold.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Soames backtracking.

    Oh, this is wonderful.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    It just clicked. Conservatives will have double the number of Labour seats.
  • I can't think Jess Phillips is going to be a pro-Brexit party? What on Earth can Labour do?

    Legitimately lost
This discussion has been closed.