politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go
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CorrectHorseBattery said:
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands wayCorrectHorseBattery said:
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was Londonwooliedyed said:If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
Can you tell us which seats they can gain?0 -
Twas what the Republicans did with DakotaPhilip_Thompson said:
I believe Congress would have to authorise it. There's proposals for it to happen (divided into 3 IIRC) but its unlikely, there's not much support for it to occur. Be like suggesting England is divided - few people genuinely want something like that even if it supports their politics.noneoftheabove said:
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely not!IanB2 said:
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.Philip_Thompson said:
Every vote does count the same.IanB2 said:
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsenseChameleon said:
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.Mysticrose said:I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.0 -
Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.0 -
Currently but Texas is trending blue much faster than other States. Within a decade or two Texas could be a genuine Swing State.Nobidexx said:
They'd need to overturn a 9% majority there, which would be very tough unless the result is a landslide. To win they only need to overcome a 1% or less majority in 3 states with similar demographics (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), which is obviously much easier.Philip_Thompson said:Texas turning blue would be an electoral earthquake. And fair game if it happens, why shouldn't the Democrats target Texas? The GOP have no divine right to it.
If Texas does go blue then all of a sudden the Electoral College would have a very different shape to it. With a narrowly blue Texas then all of a sudden it makes it plausible that the Democrats could win the Presidency while losing the popular vote. Which would be entirely legitimate too.0 -
I'm sorry, but being an alcoholic is NOT his faultFenster said:On a purely philosophical note, Corbyn and Momentum have been successful in convincing a lot of young people that governments are entirely to blame for things like poverty and homelessness.
My brother lived on the streets for a few weeks and it was ENTIRELY his fault. He had a great upbringing, very talented sportsman, university educated, a teacher for two decades, but became an alcoholic. My mother and the authorities couldn't have done more to help him, but helping a pisshead is nigh on impossible.
In November it was his anniversary of a year sober. So he's back on track. But he's unable to work yet and has very generous monthly PIP payments.
Every young person has access to a (relatively) first class education in this country. Many choose to spoil the privilege. I have seen many young kids in rugby who couldn't give a monkey's about learning and end up at 25 gutted that they'd wasted it. That is not the government's fault.
Politicians have become very poor at arguing that people should first and foremost help themselves.
If they did there would be plenty more money for those who desperately need it and are more deserving of it.0 -
There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk1
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Perhaps they feel they need to shore up their core vote.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
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'crisp and dry'malcolmg said:
Not in God's country Rob, crisp and dry hereRobD said:It's getting very wet out there -- http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
It's all about the deep fat fryer.1 -
How many seats for tories in Scotland? Take a guess.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk
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I think your comment needs to be directed at muraliPeter_the_Punter said:
Are you sure you went to right place, Philip? Wasn't a Mexican restaurant, was it? Easy mistake to make.Philip_Thompson said:
Flies in December? Very odd.murali_s said:Have done my civic duty and cast my vote here in Wimbledon. Polling station very empty. Staff chasing flies!
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Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Just walked to polling station in Dorset West. Very quiet.
Rain is chucking down.0 -
Even in 2017, 17% of the Mail readers (not the website) voted Labour. Add in the huge numbers of people who visit the website to get the latest hit of z-celeb gossip. I think it is a fairly smart move.
30% of Sun readers voted Labour.
Back in New Labour's day, the percentage was much much higher, despite Mail's constant attacks on Blair and his wife.0 -
Hendon was also very close on the Yougov MRPCorrectHorseBattery said:
Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for JezzaCorrectHorseBattery said:
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands wayCorrectHorseBattery said:
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was Londonwooliedyed said:If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?0 -
The Mail's website is one of the most-viewed news websites in the country (and am I right in saying, the world?!), so it evidently has appeal beyond the paper readership. Probably the celeb gossip on there.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
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Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.0 -
Morning all,
A brief return to the site (well, it's a special occasion!). Taunton Deane was doing a roaring trade despite the downpour. Bodes well for a high turnout. It was supposed to be a LibDem target, but that's before Swinson decided to perform her serial acts of self-immolation over revocation and self-id.
The only minor risk for Rebecca Pow is that the whole area is outraged over the Tory council's shenanigans (they've since been booted out and it's LD now), and she's frankly not that great a local MP.3 -
Is it possible "brisk" alone is simply insufficient in these modern times? I propose we split it into "lightly brisk" and "heavily brisk".AramintaMoonbeamQC said:There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk
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This shows the really scary mindset of some (not all) of the die-hards. Let’s run to the court every time something we don’t like happens and get a vote voided.SandyRentool said:
I fear that members of "the Remain community" (what the feck???) will be voiding themselves at 10 pm.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Labour seems to be using their MRP again0
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Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.
https://twitter.com/TyronWilson/status/12051079094258073600 -
I have ad-block on, both via browser and VPN level, so I don't see anything and also not geolocatable. So I have no idea what I would be getting.kyf_100 said:
Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.0 -
MikeSmithson said:rural_voter said:
Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.Mexicanpete said:
Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.Peter_the_Punter said:
Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.Mexicanpete said:
Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.MikeSmithson said:I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.
I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...
Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.
Anyhow isn’t the closest ever parliamentary election in modern times a margin of two votes? So a single vote has never yet decided an MP. Even in that case a straight switch would only have led to drawing lots.0 -
Then who else is to blame?PeterMannion said:
I'm sorry, but being an alcoholic is NOT his faultFenster said:On a purely philosophical note, Corbyn and Momentum have been successful in convincing a lot of young people that governments are entirely to blame for things like poverty and homelessness.
My brother lived on the streets for a few weeks and it was ENTIRELY his fault. He had a great upbringing, very talented sportsman, university educated, a teacher for two decades, but became an alcoholic. My mother and the authorities couldn't have done more to help him, but helping a pisshead is nigh on impossible.
In November it was his anniversary of a year sober. So he's back on track. But he's unable to work yet and has very generous monthly PIP payments.
Every young person has access to a (relatively) first class education in this country. Many choose to spoil the privilege. I have seen many young kids in rugby who couldn't give a monkey's about learning and end up at 25 gutted that they'd wasted it. That is not the government's fault.
Politicians have become very poor at arguing that people should first and foremost help themselves.
If they did there would be plenty more money for those who desperately need it and are more deserving of it.0 -
"...He sees you when you're sleeping. He knows when you're awake. He knows if you've been bad or good so be good, for goodness sake..."wooliedyed said:
Hes a creepy fat guy who gets off on watching you sleepviewcode said:
He's a self-employed manager with his own manufacturing company who employs non-unionised workers with no rights and whose delivery system requires animal labour far beyond any regulation. He adopts bizarre clothing because he can't be fired and he got his job without any interview or desert. He gives presents to his favourites and punishes those he dislikes according to his whim. He lives in an isolated mansion that others cannot conceivably afford. Yes, he is most certainly a classic Tory.Alistair said:
Incorrect, he gives poor people very little and rich people lots. He directly connects morality with wealth.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.dr_spyn said:
Classic Tory.
Hes Harvey Weinstein
Testimony of the Chief Prosecutor, the Claus trial, 2019/12/12, The Hague
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Good on her.RH1992 said:Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.
https://twitter.com/TyronWilson/status/12051079094258073600 -
''Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas. ''
A somewhat glib assertion.
Many people in those constituencies work in and around financial services, an industry Mr Corbyn explicitly wants destroy.
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Probably spitecamel said:
Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas.CarlottaVance said:
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What's the weather on polling day like?
https://twitter.com/kwilson_journo/status/1205107843810168832
Looks like reindeer.0 -
That is unfair. At the time she fully expected to become Prime Minister!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It would require the consent of the state legislature and the federal Congress but it could happen legally speaking. West Virginia was split from Virginia during the civil war withe consent of the rump of the pro-Union members of the last antebellum Virginia legislature. Maine was split from Massachusetts in 1820 with the latter’s consent.noneoftheabove said:
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely not!IanB2 said:
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.Philip_Thompson said:
Every vote does count the same.IanB2 said:
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsenseChameleon said:It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
Practically, though? There have been several attempts to get a split of California onto the ballot but none have passed. Similarly there are often calls to split New York State as “upstate” has little in common with New York City but those never get anywhere either. Americans are very conservative about their state loyalies and boundaries and most would be instinctively opposed to changing them.0 -
The polls will have to be out by a very considerable margin for you to get your desired result. I just can't see it. Those millions of Labour leave voters are seething with resentment over Brexit. It won't take that many of them to turn 15 or 20 seats blue.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for JezzaCorrectHorseBattery said:
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands wayCorrectHorseBattery said:
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was Londonwooliedyed said:If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
In a sense London does not matter, it's just not the battleground at this election CHB.0 -
Why is she sporting a red rosette?RH1992 said:Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.
https://twitter.com/TyronWilson/status/12051079094258073600 -
Same, normally. Quite how anybody goes through life without a VPN and at least one ad blocker is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
I have ad-block on, both via browser and VPN level, so I don't see anything and also not geolocatable. So I have no idea what I would be getting.kyf_100 said:
Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.0 -
Employs slave labour, doesn’t give his reindeer reasonable breaks on their 24 hour trip and claims all the credit for himself...OnlyLivingBoy said:
Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.dr_spyn said:2 -
It isn't in the interests to have states start splitting up as Republicans are more geographically diverse.rpjs said:
It would require the consent of the state legislature and the federal Congress but it could happen. West Virginia was split from Virginia during the civil war withe consent of the rump of the pro-Union members of the last antebellum Virginia legislature. Maine was split from Massachusetts in 1820 with the latter’s consent. There have been several attempts to get a split of California onto the ballot but none have passed. Similarly there are often calls to split New York State as “upstate” has little in common with New York City but those never get anywhere either. Americans are very conservative about their state loyalies and boundaries and most would be instinctively opposed to changing them.noneoftheabove said:
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely not!IanB2 said:
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.Philip_Thompson said:
Every vote does count the same.IanB2 said:
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsenseChameleon said:It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.0 -
Nick seems nervousTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I hope you lied, to help increase the tension at 10pm and make for better tv.RobD said:GIN1138 said:Just voted (turnout seemed "brisk"
) - And quite exciting as there's a lady outside the polling station logging who everyone has voted for so for the first time ever I'm part of the exit poll. 
you are one of the chosen
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Labour has been virtually invisible in Finchley and Golders Green despite coming a fairly close second last time.camel said:
Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas.CarlottaVance said:
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I agree with NickTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Not using VPN in public, is a bit like not using protection when with a dockside hooker.kyf_100 said:
Same, normally. Quite how anybody goes through life without a VPN and at least one ad blocker is beyond me.FrancisUrquhart said:
I have ad-block on, both via browser and VPN level, so I don't see anything and also not geolocatable. So I have no idea what I would be getting.kyf_100 said:
Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.0 -
I think it's just the angle of the sun, or maybe May is campaigning for Corbyn on the sly?Stark_Dawning said:
Why is she sporting a red rosette?RH1992 said:Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.
https://twitter.com/TyronWilson/status/12051079094258073600 -
Is that a stop Berger effort by them ?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Wow, looking at the Survation tables for Scotland there is quite the thing.
Unweighted Survation could only find, 136 SLab 2017 Voters, they up weighted to 190
They found 330 SNP voters and down weighted to 259.
Likewise they could only find 224 leave voters so had to upweight to 300.
What makes that really interesting is that they found a near perfect distribution of SindyRef voters, after reweighting they only change by a couple of respondents each.1 -
The South might well be though. That’s where Johnson kept going.Jason said:
The polls will have to be out by a very considerable margin for you to get your desired result. I just can't see it. Those millions of Labour leave voters are seething with resentment over Brexit. It won't take that many of them to turn 15 or 20 seats blue.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for JezzaCorrectHorseBattery said:
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands wayCorrectHorseBattery said:
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was Londonwooliedyed said:If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
In a sense London does not matter, it's just not the battleground at this election CHB.
You can either assume he thinks the red wall is in the bag - I don’t - or that he’s given up and he’s now worried about making a net loss.
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I think the website is a bit different. The celebrity news stuff is widely shared amongst a very different demographic from those who read the paper.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
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OK, so I'm just back from voting in Hampstead & Kilburn. Light drizzle only and quite a few punters at the polling station. Pretty obvious they were all voting Labour same as me. Can't speak for other places, obviously, but Tulip Sadiq looking safe as houses here.0
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Thank you darling, I will take an umbrelladr_spyn said:What's the weather on polling day like?
https://twitter.com/kwilson_journo/status/1205107843810168832
Looks like reindeer.
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Probably too ashamed to show their faces.chloe said:
Labour has been virtually invisible in Finchley and Golders Green despite coming a fairly close second last time.camel said:
Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas.CarlottaVance said:1 -
They have made very little effort here up to now.Nigelb said:
Is that a stop Berger effort by them ?CarlottaVance said:1 -
Like drizzle.RobD said:
Is it possible "brisk" alone is simply insufficient in these modern times? I propose we split it into "lightly brisk" and "heavily brisk".AramintaMoonbeamQC said:There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk
My preferred type is lemon
Anyway off to do a couple of hours phone banking.1 -
It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.bigjohnowls said:
I agree with NickTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I propose:RobD said:
Is it possible "brisk" alone is simply insufficient in these modern times? I propose we split it into "lightly brisk" and "heavily brisk".AramintaMoonbeamQC said:There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk
"Brisk", "Steadily brisk", "Steady", "Sluggishly steady", "Sluggish", "Dead"
All of which can be appended with "which means it is looking pretty bad for [the enemy]".1 -
It's lens flare.Stark_Dawning said:
Why is she sporting a red rosette?RH1992 said:Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.
https://twitter.com/TyronWilson/status/12051079094258073600 -
If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA.Mexicanpete said:
It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.bigjohnowls said:
I agree with NickTheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
I agree it was a mistake but the deal was very likely passing anyway, nearly all the tory rebels were only anti no dealers rather than 2nd reffers. Better it passes with a mandate and the country having had some chance to reject it if they want to. So the timing a minor rather than major mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. 67, I broadly agree. Unsure about Wales.0
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What about the Tooooooooories ?Alistair said:Wow, looking at the Survation tables for Scotland there is quite the thing.
Unweighted Survation could only find, 136 SLab 2017 Voters, they up weighted to 190
They found 330 SNP voters and down weighted to 259.
Likewise they could only find 224 leave voters so had to upweight to 300.
What makes that really interesting is that they found a near perfect distribution of SindyRef voters, after reweighting they only change by a couple of respondents each.0 -
I just went there. And there is a big blue banner down each side of the page and across the top urging vote conservativekyf_100 said:
Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.0 -
We really need some northern anecdotes0
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The FTPA is dead no matter the outcome. It's just what replaces it. Simple parliamentary vote for an election, or back to the Monarch dissolving Parliament on the advice of the PM?RobD said:
If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA.Mexicanpete said:
It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.bigjohnowls said:
I agree with NickTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You'll never be full clean....IanB2 said:
I just went there. And there is a big blue banner down each side of the page and across the top urging vote conservativekyf_100 said:
Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.0 -
Some of Alan Bennett's 'Talking Heads' are on Youtube.CorrectHorseBattery said:We really need some northern anecdotes
1 -
Well, upstate has the X-Men and Manhattan had the Avengers (at least until they moved) so you can see their point...rpjs said:
... Similarly there are often calls to split New York State as “upstate” has little in common with New York City but those never get anywhere either...noneoftheabove said:
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely not!IanB2 said:
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.Philip_Thompson said:
Every vote does count the same.IanB2 said:
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsenseChameleon said:It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
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Which is the only way to get winter elections for years to comeRobD said:
If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA.Mexicanpete said:
It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.bigjohnowls said:
I agree with NickTheScreamingEagles said:
FTPA = May elections.0 -
120% turnout? As usual.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Deltapoll
We're breaking our own no comment rule for today because an account is spreading fake polls, supposedly conducted by us.
We have NOT conducted any more constituency polls, have nothing more to publish. Ignore them.0 -
Looks like it.Nigelb said:
Is that a stop Berger effort by them ?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Just tried again and second-time lucky. Weird.IanB2 said:
I just went there. And there is a big blue banner down each side of the page and across the top urging vote conservativekyf_100 said:
Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.Fysics_Teacher said:
How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.ozymandias said:I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.
Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.0 -
It was (though N and S were both admitted to the union at the same time) - over a century ago, and required a constitutional convention. That is a very high hurdle indeed.IanB2 said:
Twas what the Republicans did with DakotaPhilip_Thompson said:
I believe Congress would have to authorise it. There's proposals for it to happen (divided into 3 IIRC) but its unlikely, there's not much support for it to occur. Be like suggesting England is divided - few people genuinely want something like that even if it supports their politics.noneoftheabove said:
Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?Philip_Thompson said:
Absolutely not!IanB2 said:
The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.Philip_Thompson said:
Every vote does count the same.IanB2 said:
Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsenseChameleon said:
It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.Mysticrose said:I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.
Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.
What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.0 -
Never trusted that Big_G pollster in the first place.Big_G_NorthWales said:We're breaking our own no comment rule for today because an account is spreading fake polls, supposedly conducted by us.
We have NOT conducted any more constituency polls, have nothing more to publish. Ignore them. 2 -
#ThatHappened 🙄CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
If you cropped that to remove the sun and thus not show the source of the lens flare you could get quite a good twitter storm going I expect.Stark_Dawning said:
Why is she sporting a red rosette?RH1992 said:Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.
https://twitter.com/TyronWilson/status/12051079094258073600 -
Yes, I think that is right. On the other hand the LibDem campaign has been a straightforward disaster.noneoftheabove said:
I agree it was a mistake but the deal was very likely passing anyway, nearly all the tory rebels were only anti no dealers rather than 2nd reffers. Better it passes with a mandate and the country having had some chance to reject it if they want to. So the timing a minor rather than major mistake.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
There's very few viable labour targets in the rest of the South though. All those with a less than 5% majority that I can think of also had a > 55% leave vote and no UKIP / BXP candidate (which gives them a slight boost compared to last time, and a massive one in Thurrock). I think a swing to labour in those seats is unlikely, especially on a 6-7% lead (which is below what most polls are predicting).CorrectHorseBattery said:
The South might well be though. That’s where Johnson kept going.Jason said:
The polls will have to be out by a very considerable margin for you to get your desired result. I just can't see it. Those millions of Labour leave voters are seething with resentment over Brexit. It won't take that many of them to turn 15 or 20 seats blue.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for JezzaCorrectHorseBattery said:
My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.wooliedyed said:
Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands wayCorrectHorseBattery said:
But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was Londonwooliedyed said:If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate
They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
In a sense London does not matter, it's just not the battleground at this election CHB.
You can either assume he thinks the red wall is in the bag - I don’t - or that he’s given up and he’s now worried about making a net loss.0 -
Scotland Turnout Prediction.
The final Survation of 2017 had scotland with 80% 10/10 to vote actual turnout was 66.4&
The final Survation of 2017 had scotland with 75% 10/10
The biggest falling group is 55+ with a fall of
Low turnout is good for the SNP in my POSSOM and really bad for SLab.
Tories Westminster vote slightly under polled.Pulpstar said:
What about the Tooooooooories ?Alistair said:Wow, looking at the Survation tables for Scotland there is quite the thing.
Unweighted Survation could only find, 136 SLab 2017 Voters, they up weighted to 190
They found 330 SNP voters and down weighted to 259.
Likewise they could only find 224 leave voters so had to upweight to 300.
What makes that really interesting is that they found a near perfect distribution of SindyRef voters, after reweighting they only change by a couple of respondents each.
Everyones 2016 Holyrood result more accurate.
10/10 turnout down in the North East, Tory 10/10 turnout down.
In a game of knife edges this is good news for the SNP.0 -
I can't see parliament handing that power back to the PM (even with an influx of Boris elves). And if the decision stays with parliament then it won't be much different to FTPA anyway.RH1992 said:
The FTPA is dead no matter the outcome. It's just what replaces it. Simple parliamentary vote for an election, or back to the Monarch dissolving Parliament on the advice of the PM?RobD said:
If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA.Mexicanpete said:
It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.bigjohnowls said:
I agree with NickTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
"When I were a lad we could only afford to wash once a week, in a tin bath full of rainwater..."CorrectHorseBattery said:We really need some northern anecdotes
3 -
Pretty low, if true.nunu2 said:
Looks like it.Nigelb said:
Is that a stop Berger effort by them ?CarlottaVance said:2 -
Labour gains in London:
Chipping Barnet
Hendon
Putney
Harrow East
Chingford
There are in fact 17 London seats in their top 200.
Chingford has the largest majority of those. They all have majorities of of 2500 or less0 -
Apparently it is not that simple. When the previous Perogative Power was replaced by the FTPA, that Power was lost forever. It means that the FTPA must be replaced with legislation - FTPA version 2....RH1992 said:
The FTPA is dead no matter the outcome. It's just what replaces it. Simple parliamentary vote for an election, or back to the Monarch dissolving Parliament on the advice of the PM?RobD said:
If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA.Mexicanpete said:
It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.bigjohnowls said:
I agree with NickTheScreamingEagles said:
"Prerogative powers, such as the old powers to seek and grant dissolution, are the last vestiges of authority enjoyed by the monarch. As a matter of logic, a historical artefact, once destroyed, cannot be built from scratch."
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/ftpa-should-not-be-replaced-something-worse
0 -
That’s from electionpolling.co.uk/targets/labour0
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Sun? Today?RH1992 said:
I think it's just the angle of the sun, or maybe May is campaigning for Corbyn on the sly?Stark_Dawning said:
Why is she sporting a red rosette?RH1992 said:Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.
https://twitter.com/TyronWilson/status/12051079094258073600 -
Shortage of anecdotes? You were lucky.CorrectHorseBattery said:We really need some northern anecdotes
1 -
It is a popular Twitter meme, which originated during the EU Referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
#ThatHappened 🙄CorrectHorseBattery said:
You need to be more down with the social media, PT 0 -
Whoever wins the next parliament will be all the better for not having Nick Boles as a member, the last one would have been as well.Mexicanpete said:
That is unfair. At the time she fully expected to become Prime Minister!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Simple, an act that says Parliament can only be dissolved by order in council or proclamation.Beibheirli_C said:
Apparently it is not that simple. When the previous Perogative Power was replaced by the FTPA, that Power was lost forever. It means that the FTPA must be replaced with legislation - FTPA version 2....RH1992 said:
The FTPA is dead no matter the outcome. It's just what replaces it. Simple parliamentary vote for an election, or back to the Monarch dissolving Parliament on the advice of the PM?RobD said:
If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA.Mexicanpete said:
It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.bigjohnowls said:
I agree with NickTheScreamingEagles said:
"Prerogative powers, such as the old powers to seek and grant dissolution, are the last vestiges of authority enjoyed by the monarch. As a matter of logic, a historical artefact, once destroyed, cannot be built from scratch."
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/ftpa-should-not-be-replaced-something-worse0 -
This looks briskmwadams said:
I propose:RobD said:
Is it possible "brisk" alone is simply insufficient in these modern times? I propose we split it into "lightly brisk" and "heavily brisk".AramintaMoonbeamQC said:There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk
"Brisk", "Steadily brisk", "Steady", "Sluggishly steady", "Sluggish", "Dead"
All of which can be appended with "which means it is looking pretty bad for [the enemy]".
https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/12/longest-queues-ever-people-stand-line-around-block-vote-11771760/?ito=article.mweb.share.top.link
Not good for my low turnout bet, but bad for the Tories...0 -
fascinating. Riveting.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour gains in London:
Chipping Barnet
Hendon
Putney
Harrow East
Chingford
There are in fact 17 London seats in their top 200.
Chingford has the largest majority of those. They all have majorities of of 2500 or less1 -
Off to vote mofos.0
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKHFZBUTA4kCorrectHorseBattery said:We really need some northern anecdotes
1 -
Voted in Stevenage, dead as a doornail.0
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I'm quite content not having Twitter in my life. No regrets there.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
It is a popular Twitter meme, which originated during the EU Referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
#ThatHappened 🙄CorrectHorseBattery said:
You need to be more down with the social media, PT0 -
..0
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It's a parody of a tweet from 2016 EU ref, where someone said their blind 93yr mum shouted at which box for leave, to cheers from the queuePhilip_Thompson said:
#ThatHappened 🙄CorrectHorseBattery said:0
This discussion has been closed.