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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov snap poll: Johnson wins 52-48

SystemSystem Posts: 12,559
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov snap poll: Johnson wins 52-48

YouGov / Sky News snap poll on the TV debate

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    first?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Ha! Yes, first time ever!
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    No wonder Boris dodged Neil when he can just field soft soap questions on sterile debates instead.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    52/48 is far more serious for Corbyn than it is for Johnson at this stage.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    4 points is about what I thought the Tory Labour gap would be. But now I'm thinking it will be more like 6pts.
  • BantermanBanterman Posts: 287
    Bojo 50 odd vs Corbyn 20ish on prime ministerial. That's what counts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    edited December 2019
    Jesus, how many sex claims can one possible criminal sleazeball have?
    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror Front page Corbyn Free Zone.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203069483755151360/photo/1

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Banterman said:

    Bojo 50 odd vs Corbyn 20ish on prime ministerial. That's what counts.

    54-30
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    edited December 2019
    I presume this was a well delivered line from the debate, but its not very newspaper headliner material, it's not got much wow factor.
    Sandpit said:

    Strong headline from the DT
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203068668806156288

  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Tory majority finally broken through 1.40
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    Wonder if we will see the polls widen slightly between now and Tuesday
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,718
    edited December 2019
    Given Swinson, Sturgeon and Farage were not taking part, Leavers will overwhelmingly have gone for Boris and Remainers will overwhelmingly have gone for Corbyn, so 52% for Boris to 48% for Corbyn seems apt.

    However Boris will be the more pleased of the two, as he was already ahead in the polls it was Corbyn who needed a big win in the final debate to change the narrative and that has not happened.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    4 points is about what I thought the Tory Labour gap would be. But now I'm thinking it will be more like 6pts.

    It's currently averaging 10 points, so where does this estimation come from kle4?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    Banterman said:

    Bojo 50 odd vs Corbyn 20ish on prime ministerial. That's what counts.

    54 v 30 and yougov say it is the most important indicator
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    edited December 2019
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    4 points is about what I thought the Tory Labour gap would be. But now I'm thinking it will be more like 6pts.

    It's currently averaging 10 points, so where does this estimation come from kle4?
    Not based on anything, just not convinced the pollsters are not understating Labour again. 6-7 presumes a modest Labour outperformance of the polls, but the Tory lead has been steady enough and high enough I think small majority is highly likely even if the polls are wrong.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    kle4 said:

    I presume this was a well delivered line from the debate, but its not very newspaper headliner material, it's not got much wow factor.

    Sandpit said:

    Strong headline from the DT
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203068668806156288

    Well, they can't really go with 'Andrew in new sex pest claims', although they'd probably sell more copies.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    54 v 30 and yougov say it is the most important indicator

    I've never really rated that metric much tbh. The PM wins by default, since it's rather easy to imagine them as PM.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    On who came across as more likeable in #BBCDebate:

    Boris Johnson: 55%
    Jeremy Corbyn: 36%

    via @YouGov
    Representative survey of viewers
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    Andrew said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:


    54 v 30 and yougov say it is the most important indicator

    I've never really rated that metric much tbh. The PM wins by default, since it's rather easy to imagine them as PM.
    Yougov said it is the most important factor
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,718
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203005097321603073?s=20
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    kle4 said:

    Jesus, how many sex claims can one possible criminal sleazeball have?

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror Front page Corbyn Free Zone.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203069483755151360/photo/1

    Clearly Kevin Muckguire and chums realise it is "taxi for Cornyn" time
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,726
    Corbyn would make a great head of Shelter but he's not PM material
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,416
    edited December 2019
    All exactly the same as last time, Corbyn winning on trustworthy and in touch with ordinary people, Johnson leading on Prime Ministerial and likeable.

    Snap poll alnost the same too, very even.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    4 points is about what I thought the Tory Labour gap would be. But now I'm thinking it will be more like 6pts.

    It's currently averaging 10 points, so where does this estimation come from kle4?
    Not based on anything, just not convinced the pollsters are not understating Labour again. 6-7 presumes a modest Labour outperformance of the polls, but the Tory lead has been steady enough and high enough I think small majority is highly likely even if the polls are wrong.
    The regional variances are playing havoc with UNS. Difficult to ascertain where votes are piling up or being spread efficiently. Maybe the polls are underestimating the Tories this time. In normal times I would say that is a catastrophe for Labour, but getting rid of Corbyn and McDonnell would be a very good thing for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,718
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203072878968750080?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203005097321603073?s=20

    As someone who first voted in 2005, and wasn't really paying much attention in that one which did have a higher majority, a majority over 30 seems enormous to me despite really not being so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,718
    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1203032731212496897?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203072878968750080?s=20

    In other words, the questions Tories do better on Boris won, the questions Labour do better on Corbyn won.

    I guess trustworthy is one which is a bit more useful, and surprisingly close between them.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203072878968750080?s=20

    Very small changes in both directions since last time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    NorthCadboll said:

    kle4 said:

    Jesus, how many sex claims can one possible criminal sleazeball have?

    dr_spyn said:

    Mirror Front page Corbyn Free Zone.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203069483755151360/photo/1

    Clearly Kevin Muckguire and chums realise it is "taxi for Cornyn" time
    Robert The Bruce didn't hail a taxi for Cormyn. Hailed a couple of heavies to take him out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,718
    edited December 2019
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203005097321603073?s=20

    As someone who first voted in 2005, and wasn't really paying much attention in that one which did have a higher majority, a majority over 30 seems enormous to me despite really not being so.
    It won't be a Tory landslide but if Boris does get a majority of 40+ that will be a bigger victory than any Tory leader has won since Thatcher
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited December 2019
    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory. Am I the David Herdson of 2019?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,718
    Pulpstar said:

    Corbyn would make a great head of Shelter but he's not PM material

    Shelter volunteer maybe, not sure I would want him running anything
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    🚨 Huge. Reddit security team believes the Reddit post of leaked US-UK trade documents used by Jeremy Corbyn and Labour was part of a co-ordinated campaign coming from Russia https://t.co/AjWMJcObhD
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203072878968750080?s=20

    In other words, the questions Tories do better on Boris won, the questions Labour do better on Corbyn won.

    I guess trustworthy is one which is a bit more useful, and surprisingly close between them.
    Was there a “Don’t trust either of them with a barge pole. Hell, their wives don’t even trust them” option?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203005097321603073?s=20

    As someone who first voted in 2005, and wasn't really paying much attention in that one which did have a higher majority, a majority over 30 seems enormous to me despite really not being so.
    Here is the list:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections

    2005:66
    1979:43
    1970:30
    1992:21
    1951:17

    These majorities, though not big, didn't result in actual early elections, so those are the targets for the Conservatives to beat in 6 days.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Nothing on Guardian front page.

    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203075246376525824/photo/1
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,626
    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory. Am I the David Herdson of 2019?

    Tories are 7 points ahead. Mori leader favorability doesn't lie.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,043
    Are Tory losses to the Lib Dems really going to be a big issue?

    Or is that just Lib Dem propaganda?
  • theproftheprof Posts: 9
    I thought
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory. Am I the David Herdson of 2019?

    Tories are 7 points ahead. Mori leader favorability doesn't lie.
    When the average polls show that I will believe you
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,982
    Razedabode said:

    🚨 Huge. Reddit security team believes the Reddit post of leaked US-UK trade documents used by Jeremy Corbyn and Labour was part of a co-ordinated campaign coming from Russia https://t.co/AjWMJcObhD

    The Russians want to thwart Brexit by electing Corbyn on a wave of NHS alarm? But I thought they were the ones behind Brexit in the first place? I wish they'd make up our minds.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,726
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    You can't deduct the speakers because they need to be elected, 1 from labour, Hoyle and two theories
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    I’m surprised that front pages are out this early. Did they have time to put in anything about the debate?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,043
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    Is it planned to change the rules so all the Deputy Speakers will be Labour MPs?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Could you explain your reasoning why?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019
    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory. Am I the David Herdson of 2019?

    Large Tory majority labour sub 200
  • theproftheprof Posts: 9
    theprof said:

    I thought

    Rather, I thought the Yougov mrp was tonight?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    Chris said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    Is it planned to change the rules so all the Deputy Speakers will be Labour MPs?
    Not sure your point. Have I made an error
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    No. Just to take one example; Eleanor Laing will be elected (probably) as a Tory but she is also included in your deductions.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,901
    theprof said:

    theprof said:

    I thought

    Rather, I thought the Yougov mrp was tonight?
    YouGov said Monday on Twitter.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Leaked documents could be a huge story. I look forward to Ms Cadwalladr's take on it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,677
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1203032731212496897?s=20

    I thought he had been locked in a cupboard for the rest of the election.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited December 2019
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203072878968750080?s=20

    In other words, the questions Tories do better on Boris won, the questions Labour do better on Corbyn won.

    I guess trustworthy is one which is a bit more useful, and surprisingly close between them.
    Was there a “Don’t trust either of them with a barge pole. Hell, their wives don’t even trust them” option?
    Of course not they want a binary election and the media are incapable of coping with a none binary choice but that’s all you are going to get with this corrupt two party duopoly
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,040
    GideonWise said:

    Leaked documents could be a huge story. I look forward to Ms Cadwalladr's take on it.

    She’s got rather more important things to do at the moment!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,043
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    theprof said:

    theprof said:

    I thought

    Rather, I thought the Yougov mrp was tonight?
    YouGov said Monday on Twitter.
    Wasn't it Tuesday?
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    maaarsh said:

    Tory majority finally broken through 1.40

    It has been below before, 1.37 it touched briefly at one point.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    GideonWise said:

    Leaked documents could be a huge story. I look forward to Ms Cadwalladr's take on it.

    It’s only a huge story if several newspapers and the BBC go with it.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
    It's not 100%, I'd say it's 50/50
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
    It's not 100%, I'd say it's 50/50
    You said 40-38 a few days ago...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    edited December 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    You can't deduct the speakers because they need to be elected, 1 from labour, Hoyle and two theories
    Thank you. So what is the actual majority
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,775
    Didn't see the debate but since Johnson is hugely more popular than Corbyn (in the way that herpes is hugely more popular than siphylus) I should say for the voters to score it so close, Corbyn must have done pretty well.

    How did Swinson do - or did she decide not to attend?

    It all matters little though. The punters have pretty much decided.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1203032731212496897?s=20

    I thought he had been locked in a cupboard for the rest of the election.
    He has. That is filmed in Narnia.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    theprof said:

    theprof said:

    I thought

    Rather, I thought the Yougov mrp was tonight?
    Tuesday
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Chris said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    theprof said:

    theprof said:

    I thought

    Rather, I thought the Yougov mrp was tonight?
    YouGov said Monday on Twitter.
    Wasn't it Tuesday?
    Tuesday at 10pm
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    You can't deduct the speakers because they need to be elected, 1 from labour, Hoyle and two theories
    Also, I read that 3 Sinn Fein candidates have stood aside, so as I understand it, they are only likely to have 4 candidates elected.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
    If you are going to ramp labour try to be more original.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,355
    52:48

    Top trolling, YouGov panel......
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    Tory majority finally broken through 1.40

    It has been below before, 1.37 it touched briefly at one point.
    What is it now
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Brom said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
    It's not 100%, I'd say it's 50/50
    You said 40-38 a few days ago...
    I did - and I stand by that, that will be the result for a HP. If it's a slim majority, more like 40/30.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    nichomar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
    If you are going to ramp labour try to be more original.
    Nailed on Corbynista government.

    See you at the hacienda soon!

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    nichomar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
    If you are going to ramp labour try to be more original.
    With respect I will post as I wish
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,165
    Just finished watching the debate. They both did okay. It was about 50/50 in my opinion.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,355
    This election could end up a 46:29 blowout for Boris.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1203005097321603073?s=20

    *at least 40. And perhaps 100+.

    People are not taking into account the regional dynamics and the fact that if Leave wanted to gerrymander the seats they couldn't have done a much better job than the ones we have now!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Brom said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
    It's not 100%, I'd say it's 50/50
    You said 40-38 a few days ago...
    I did - and I stand by that, that will be the result for a HP. If it's a slim majority, more like 40/30.
    LAB still in it. No complacency. If LAB win I will need some oven ready meals
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,718
    edited December 2019
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    The Tories need a swing of just 0.44% to get the 8 Labour seats they need for a majority, implying a Tory lead of just 3% would be enough.
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    Even assuming say 10 Tory seats lost to the SNP and LDs making it 18 Labour seats required for that majority a swing of 1.58% or a Tory lead over Labour of 5% would be enough.

    A Tory landslide is now unlikely, a Tory majority still is
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Nope.
    This tells you a lot:
    "Johnson retains a clear lead over Corbyn as the person the public see as the most capable Prime Minister. 47% consider Johnson the most capable Prime Minister compared to 31% for Jeremy Corbyn."

    The final one from Mori in 2017 was May 47 Corbyn 36, a lead of 11 which translates to a voting intention lead of around 4, not far off the final result.
    This time it's 16, so it's around 9 which is close to the polling average lead of 10.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,501
    MarqueeMark said:

    This election could end up a 46:29 blowout for Boris.

    I'm thinking 43/44 to 29/30 will be the end position and about 110 majority
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Razedabode said:

    🚨 Huge. Reddit security team believes the Reddit post of leaked US-UK trade documents used by Jeremy Corbyn and Labour was part of a co-ordinated campaign coming from Russia https://t.co/AjWMJcObhD

    Didnt we already know this?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Brom said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Mori figures seem to imply a possibility of a Hung Parliament.

    Yes of course it is going to be a hung parliament. No doubt whatsover !!!!
    It's not 100%, I'd say it's 50/50
    You said 40-38 a few days ago...
    I did - and I stand by that, that will be the result for a HP. If it's a slim majority, more like 40/30.
    That 8% difference that you casually identify is over 2.5 million votes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    You can't deduct the speakers because they need to be elected, 1 from labour, Hoyle and two theories
    Also, I read that 3 Sinn Fein candidates have stood aside, so as I understand it, they are only likely to have 4 candidates elected.
    I doubt they've stood down in seats they presently hold, but in seats the SDLP might win from unionists? Though they could lost to the SDLP in 1 or 2 as well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Missed the debate. Didn’t miss anything. Usual suspects on PB posting usual posts. Enjoy the fun. Not long until it’s over. Then the real troubles begin.
  • JamesPJamesP Posts: 85
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    Tory majority finally broken through 1.40

    It has been below before, 1.37 it touched briefly at one point.
    What is it now
    1.38
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 12,501
    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    You can't deduct the speakers because they need to be elected, 1 from labour, Hoyle and two theories
    Also, I read that 3 Sinn Fein candidates have stood aside, so as I understand it, they are only likely to have 4 candidates elected.
    I doubt they've stood down in seats they presently hold, but in seats the SDLP might win from unionists? Though they could lost to the SDLP in 1 or 2 as well.
    On a bad night they could lose to the UUP in Fermanagh too
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,922
    I wonder what the Sundays are gonna throw up.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,682
    edited December 2019
    These "opinion polls" and "MRPs" and "experts" are all very well, but I have four reasons for believing there will be a Labour landslide next Thursday:

    a) A Very British Coup forecasts that the Communist Labour leader will win a surprise victory against the Tory. JC=Harry Perkins, surely?
    b) failing to deliver Brexit in March and again in October, was meant to be an "extinction level event" for the Conservatives
    c) Putin seems to be backing Corbyn, and he really controls what happens in UK elections
    d) on the other hand, Trump is backing Johnson and Brexit, and so only card-carrying KKK members could vote Conservative.

    Hampshire North West a nailed on Lab gain, surely?

    You heard it here first ...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,039
    JamesP said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    JamesP said:

    maaarsh said:

    Tory majority finally broken through 1.40

    It has been below before, 1.37 it touched briefly at one point.
    What is it now
    1.38
    Thank you
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,626
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory. Am I the David Herdson of 2019?

    Tories are 7 points ahead. Mori leader favorability doesn't lie.
    When the average polls show that I will believe you
    Because the polls are never wrong...
    The reality is none of us knows what will happen. What I do know is that historically the Mori leader positive favorability differential does a better job of predicting the final result than the polls do. Out of sample it predicted the vote share margin to within 1pp in both 2015 and 2017, when the polls were completely wrong. So, why do you think that this time it is the polls that will be right? I mean, you could be right, but what has changed?
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    edited December 2019
    Is it deliberate when people who don't like Boris call him Boris Johnston? I hear it all the time, but only from those strongly opposed to him.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Chris said:

    Are Tory losses to the Lib Dems really going to be a big issue?

    Or is that just Lib Dem propaganda?

    Probably the latter, although you would only expect them to talk up their chances. Most likely they'll just rack up a load of decent second places, which are useless under our system of course (though they'll create a longer list of viable targets to go for in the election after this one.)

    FWIW, the YouGov MRP has St Albans, Richmond Park and Cheltenham going Con>LD, and North Norfolk and Eastbourne going LD>Con, so a net movement of precisely one seat in the Lib Dems' favour in that particular head-to-head.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    A week is a long time in politics. What about 5 days?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,895
    People's Vote - now! :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,059
    wooliedyed said:

    kle4 said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    It's squeaky bum time folks ... with just five days to go, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning 335 seats, i.e achieving a 20 seat majority.
    Almost MOE territory.

    I always have problems with these majority figures

    With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority

    650 - 10 = 640

    640
    -335

    = 305 so majority is 30
    You can't deduct the speakers because they need to be elected, 1 from labour, Hoyle and two theories
    Also, I read that 3 Sinn Fein candidates have stood aside, so as I understand it, they are only likely to have 4 candidates elected.
    I doubt they've stood down in seats they presently hold, but in seats the SDLP might win from unionists? Though they could lost to the SDLP in 1 or 2 as well.
    On a bad night they could lose to the UUP in Fermanagh too
    Good old Fermanagh. I always remember it thanks to this little titbit from Wiki in 2010 after the 4 vote victory:
    Following the close result Connor lodged a petition against Gildernew alleging irregularities in the counting of the votes had affected the result. However the Court found that there were only three ballot papers which could not be accounted for, and even if they were all votes for Connor, Gildernew would have had a plurality of one. The election was therefore upheld

    Not quite the same thing as winning it literally by one vote, but close.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    nunu2 said:

    Razedabode said:

    🚨 Huge. Reddit security team believes the Reddit post of leaked US-UK trade documents used by Jeremy Corbyn and Labour was part of a co-ordinated campaign coming from Russia https://t.co/AjWMJcObhD

    Didnt we already know this?
    I'm not sure I knew it was leaked as part of a russian campaign..
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,165
    Xtrain said:

    A week is a long time in politics. What about 5 days?

    5 days before the 1992 election the polls were showing Neil Kinnock 7% ahead and heading for a majority.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,128
    My take on the debate:

    Jezza articulated why I am a Socialist.

    Bozo articulated jingoistic bollocks.

    Sadly too many people will be taken in by the bollocks and the lying buffoon gets to stay in Number 10.

    357.

    Night all.
This discussion has been closed.