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YouGov / Sky News snap poll on the TV debate
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However Boris will be the more pleased of the two, as he was already ahead in the polls it was Corbyn who needed a big win in the final debate to change the narrative and that has not happened.
Boris Johnson: 55%
Jeremy Corbyn: 36%
via @YouGov
Representative survey of viewers
Snap poll alnost the same too, very even.
I guess trustworthy is one which is a bit more useful, and surprisingly close between them.
Almost MOE territory. Am I the David Herdson of 2019?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_general_elections
2005:66
1979:43
1970:30
1992:21
1951:17
These majorities, though not big, didn't result in actual early elections, so those are the targets for the Conservatives to beat in 6 days.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1203075246376525824/photo/1
With the speakers and sinn fein deducted the actual majority
650 - 10 = 640
640
-335
= 305 so majority is 30
Or is that just Lib Dem propaganda?
How did Swinson do - or did she decide not to attend?
It all matters little though. The punters have pretty much decided.
Top trolling, YouGov panel......
See you at the hacienda soon!
People are not taking into account the regional dynamics and the fact that if Leave wanted to gerrymander the seats they couldn't have done a much better job than the ones we have now!
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
Even assuming say 10 Tory seats lost to the SNP and LDs making it 18 Labour seats required for that majority a swing of 1.58% or a Tory lead over Labour of 5% would be enough.
A Tory landslide is now unlikely, a Tory majority still is
This tells you a lot:
"Johnson retains a clear lead over Corbyn as the person the public see as the most capable Prime Minister. 47% consider Johnson the most capable Prime Minister compared to 31% for Jeremy Corbyn."
The final one from Mori in 2017 was May 47 Corbyn 36, a lead of 11 which translates to a voting intention lead of around 4, not far off the final result.
This time it's 16, so it's around 9 which is close to the polling average lead of 10.
a) A Very British Coup forecasts that the Communist Labour leader will win a surprise victory against the Tory. JC=Harry Perkins, surely?
b) failing to deliver Brexit in March and again in October, was meant to be an "extinction level event" for the Conservatives
c) Putin seems to be backing Corbyn, and he really controls what happens in UK elections
d) on the other hand, Trump is backing Johnson and Brexit, and so only card-carrying KKK members could vote Conservative.
Hampshire North West a nailed on Lab gain, surely?
You heard it here first ...
The reality is none of us knows what will happen. What I do know is that historically the Mori leader positive favorability differential does a better job of predicting the final result than the polls do. Out of sample it predicted the vote share margin to within 1pp in both 2015 and 2017, when the polls were completely wrong. So, why do you think that this time it is the polls that will be right? I mean, you could be right, but what has changed?
FWIW, the YouGov MRP has St Albans, Richmond Park and Cheltenham going Con>LD, and North Norfolk and Eastbourne going LD>Con, so a net movement of precisely one seat in the Lib Dems' favour in that particular head-to-head.
Following the close result Connor lodged a petition against Gildernew alleging irregularities in the counting of the votes had affected the result. However the Court found that there were only three ballot papers which could not be accounted for, and even if they were all votes for Connor, Gildernew would have had a plurality of one. The election was therefore upheld
Not quite the same thing as winning it literally by one vote, but close.
Jezza articulated why I am a Socialist.
Bozo articulated jingoistic bollocks.
Sadly too many people will be taken in by the bollocks and the lying buffoon gets to stay in Number 10.
357.
Night all.