I only saw about 2 mins of the debate, but what struck me was that I thought Jezza, as a revolutionary socialist, would take the chance to really lay into Boris in a memorable and shocking way. Instead, he seemed quite passive aggressive, which I think was a mistake. Don’t die wondering JC!
Are Tory losses to the Lib Dems really going to be a big issue?
Or is that just Lib Dem propaganda?
Probably the latter, although you would only expect them to talk up their chances. Most likely they'll just rack up a load of decent second places, which are useless under our system of course (though they'll create a longer list of viable targets to go for in the election after this one.)
FWIW, the YouGov MRP has St Albans, Richmond Park and Cheltenham going Con>LD, and North Norfolk and Eastbourne going LD>Con, so a net movement of precisely one seat in the Lib Dems' favour in that particular head-to-head.
Plus add heavily Remain Wimbledo/finchley-golders-poll
I agree and YouGov MRP agrees Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne will go Tory, maybe Carshalton and Wallington too.
My gut is that there'll be less turnover in those seats than you might expect. I'd expect the LDs to fall 5-10 points short in all their London targets bar Richmond Park (which I expect them to take by a healthy margin).
Carshalton, by contrast, will I think be a Tom Brake hold. (A Tom Brake hold is not the same as a LibDem hold...) Although it's far from inconceivable that it could fall.
I can't help think that the LDs might hold North Norfolk and Eastbourne, but lose Westmoreland & Lonsdale.
I'm still convinced that Nttention.
Here's my North Norfolk staying Yellow thesis:
- like it or not, the LDs are up five points or so on 2017, that has to go somewhere - UKIP didn't stand in the seat in 2017, but BXP is standing in 2019. Even if they only get 2-3%, that's going to come off the Conservative total - the LDs absolutely hammered the Conservatives in the local elections there last year, gaining about 13 seats - the LDs often keep seats for a single parliamentary session after a change of MPs
I think it'll be close.
YouGov has 72% of Leavers voting Tory now, just 2% voting LD.
By contrast 21% of Remainers are voting LD and just 16% voting Tory.
The results speak for themselves and hard to see the LDs holding Leave voting North Norfolk.
Are Tory losses to the Lib Dems really going to be a big issue?
Or is that just Lib Dem propaganda?
Probably the latter, although you would only expect them to talk up their chances. Most likely they'll just rack up a load of decent second places, which are useless under our system of course (though they'll create a longer list of viable targets to go for in the election after this one.)
FWIW, the YouGov MRP has St Albans, Richmond Park and Cheltenham going Con>LD, and North Norfolk and Eastbourne going LD>Con, so a net movement of precisely one seat in the Lib Dems' favour in that particular head-to-head.
Plus add heavily Remain Wimbledo/finchley-golders-poll
I agree and YouGov MRP agrees Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne will go Tory, maybe Carshalton and Wallington too.
My gut is that there'll be less turnover in those seats than you might expect. I'd expect the LDs to fall 5-10 points short in all their London targets bar Richmond Park (which I expect them to take by a healthy margin).
Carshalton, by contrast, will I think be a Tom Brake hold. (A Tom Brake hold is not the same as a LibDem hold...) Although it's far from inconceivable that it could fall.
I can't help think that the LDs might hold North Norfolk and Eastbourne, but lose Westmoreland & Lonsdale.
I'm still convinced that Nttention.
Here's my North Norfolk staying Yellow thesis:
- like it or not, the LDs are up five points or so on 2017, that has to go somewhere - UKIP didn't stand in the seat in 2017, but BXP is standing in 2019. Even if they only get 2-3%, that's going to come off the Conservative total - the LDs absolutely hammered the Conservatives in the local elections there last year, gaining about 13 seats - the LDs often keep seats for a single parliamentary session after a change of MPs
I think it'll be close.
YouGov has 72% of Leavers voting Tory now, just 2% voting LD.
By contrast 21% of Remainers are voting LD and just 16% voting Tory.
The results speak for themselves and hard to see the LDs holding Leave voting North Norfolk.
If you lower them to £3K, what will you do about all those who paid £9000? Give them a refund?
I think Labour could win on a manifesto similar to what it is running on now, with a leader like Starmer. It's not the policies that are the problem for me, it's Corbyn. The policies have public support.
This isn't me admitting defeat BTW, I'm just saying that a newer leader would obviously be doing better.
I say all that - but they'll dig up stuff on Starmer too and we'll be back calling him a racist terrorist anti-Semite in a couple of years I suspect. It's just how things work.
If Labour has to be centrist to win then that's what it needs to be. But I don't think they'll get my vote, or have much youth voting in their direction. They probably won't need that to win of course - but it will be sad to have a generation feel excluded again. Such is life I suppose.
A little-known fact is that in 2017 the updated MRP figures were less accurate than the original figures compared to the election result.
Original figures were Con 310, Lab 257. Updated figures were Con 303, Lab 269. Result was Con 318, Lab 262.
@Andy_JS - Interesting. Do you know whether YouGov will be releasing estimated margins of error for each constituency, as they did last time? I mean all in one file, rather than as data collectable by clicking on hundreds of little hexagons on the map. If you or someone else can autoscrape this, could you possibly post the spreadsheet? In 2017 as the results came in my model worked not on "swing" from the MRP, but on swing from MRP divided by expected error. So I treated a result of 40% rather than a YG-predicted 35% as much more significant if YG had said 35%+/-2% than if they'd said 35%+/-6%. I can't recall whether I went back and checked for whether this was more predictive than just using swing, but after about 20 results my predicted seat totals were closer than the BBC's to the final results.
Boris beat Corbyn 62% to 39% on Brexit, 48% to 43% on Government spending and 55% to 34% on terrorism and security in the debate tonight YouGov finds. Corbyn beat Boris 55% to 38% on the NHS.
Leavers thought Boris won 79% to 21%, Remainers thought Corbyn won 75% to 25%.
Boris won 53% to 47% with those who already have decided how to vote, Corbyn edged it 51% to 49% with those yet to decide.
Incredibly unfavourable profile of Johnson on ITV tonight, just before the debate, of a type the BBC wouldn't even dare to screen nowadays. Julie Etchingham was obviously getting her own back for Boris not turning up for her interview as scheduled in the papers - in fact she even mentioned this in the segment of the programme on his trustworthiness and personality.
If you lower them to £3K, what will you do about all those who paid £9000? Give them a refund?
I think Labour could win on a manifesto similar to what it is running on now, with a leader like Starmer. It's not the policies that are the problem for me, it's Corbyn. The policies have public support.
This isn't me admitting defeat BTW, I'm just saying that a newer leader would obviously be doing better.
I say all that - but they'll dig up stuff on Starmer too and we'll be back calling him a racist terrorist anti-Semite in a couple of years I suspect. It's just how things work.
If Labour has to be centrist to win then that's what it needs to be. But I don't think they'll get my vote, or have much youth voting in their direction. They probably won't need that to win of course - but it will be sad to have a generation feel excluded again. Such is life I suppose.
Yes, most of that debt is getting written off anyway.
Honestly, that's like giving a clapped out old car a new paint job and saying it's a new car. It's not the paint job that's the issue (though it's doesn't help) it's the clapped out old car. This country will never vote for a socialist party, too many people can do basic maths and see socialism doesn't work, nothing is free.
Labour's policies obviously have support, I mean who doesn't want free broadband? The issue is credibility and whoever tries to sell these tired ideas to the public will get the same reaction, people's bullshit detectors will go off.
If you lower them to £3K, what will you do about all those who paid £9000? Give them a refund?
I think Labour could win on a manifesto similar to what it is running on now, with a leader like Starmer. It's not the policies that are the problem for me, it's Corbyn. The policies have public support.
This isn't me admitting defeat BTW, I'm just saying that a newer leader would obviously be doing better.
I say all that - but they'll dig up stuff on Starmer too and we'll be back calling him a racist terrorist anti-Semite in a couple of years I suspect. It's just how things work.
If Labour has to be centrist to win then that's what it needs to be. But I don't think they'll get my vote, or have much youth voting in their direction. They probably won't need that to win of course - but it will be sad to have a generation feel excluded again. Such is life I suppose.
Yes, most of that debt is getting written off anyway.
Honestly, that's like giving a clapped out old car a new paint job and saying it's a new car. It's not the paint job that's the issue (though it's doesn't help) it's the clapped out old car. This country will never vote for a socialist party, too many people can do basic maths and see socialism doesn't work, nothing is free.
Labour's policies obviously have support, I mean who doesn't want free broadband? The issue is credibility and whoever tries to sell these tired ideas to the public will get the same reaction, people's bullshit detectors will go off.
Like I said, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, that's what it should be.
They probably won't get my vote - but like I said they probably don't need it in such a case.
If it gets the Tories out, I'll be broadly in favour of it. But I won't vote with much enthusiasm, if I do at all.
So Corbyn won the undecideds again, just. That is interesting.
Though there were only 115 undecideds to 1037 definitely decideds
Those are the raw figures no? It should be representative of the population, hence it should be a lot more people in actual fact.
9% of the electorate, if that is representative. And if he only just won that subsample, it is unlikely to move anything (not to mention the margin of error).
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Boris beat Corbyn 62% to 39% on Brexit, 48% to 43% on Government spending and 55% to 34% on terrorism and security in the debate tonight YouGov finds. Corbyn beat Boris 55% to 38% on the NHS.
Combined with the 52%-48% overall win for Johnson, the figures suggest that * Brexit is the most polarised issue of the four, with nobody saying they performed equally well; and * many consider the NHS to be a much more important issue than Brexit, government spending, and terrorism and security.
Busy weekend of campaigning coming up, Harlow tomorrow morning, Epping and Chingford tomorrow afternoon and Enfield Southgate on Sunday and possibly phoning in Vale of Clwyd on Monday night. So heading to bed shortly, night all
If you lower them to £3K, what will you do about all those who paid £9000? Give them a refund?
I think Labour could win on a manifesto similar to what it is running on now, with a leader like Starmer. It's not the policies that are the problem for me, it's Corbyn. The policies have public support.
This isn't me admitting defeat BTW, I'm just saying that a newer leader would obviously be doing better.
I say all that - but they'll dig up stuff on Starmer too and we'll be back calling him a racist terrorist anti-Semite in a couple of years I suspect. It's just how things work.
If Labour has to be centrist to win then that's what it needs to be. But I don't think they'll get my vote, or have much youth voting in their direction. They probably won't need that to win of course - but it will be sad to have a generation feel excluded again. Such is life I suppose.
Yes, most of that debt is getting written off anyway.
Honestly, that's like giving a clapped out old car a new paint job and saying it's a new car. It's not the paint job that's the issue (though it's doesn't help) it's the clapped out old car. This country will never vote for a socialist party, too many people can do basic maths and see socialism doesn't work, nothing is free.
Labour's policies obviously have support, I mean who doesn't want free broadband? The issue is credibility and whoever tries to sell these tired ideas to the public will get the same reaction, people's bullshit detectors will go off.
Like I said, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, that's what it should be.
They probably won't get my vote - but like I said they probably don't need it in such a case.
If it gets the Tories out, I'll be broadly in favour of it. But I won't vote with much enthusiasm, if I do at all.
That's just me being honest.
Fair enough, though I expect by the time the next election comes around you may feel differently. 5 years is a long time and I don't think the same now as I did when I was in my early 20s.
So Corbyn won the undecideds again, just. That is interesting.
Though there were only 115 undecideds to 1037 definitely decideds
Those are the raw figures no? It should be representative of the population, hence it should be a lot more people in actual fact.
9% of the electorate, if that is representative. And if he only just won that subsample, it is unlikely to move anything (not to mention the margin of error).
Fair point, I was just saying it's more than the people in the sample, as long as it is representative.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understood the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is based on the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If you lower them to £3K, what will you do about all those who paid £9000? Give them a refund?
I think Labour could win on a manifesto similar to what it is running on now, with a leader like Starmer. It's not the policies that are the problem for me, it's Corbyn. The policies have public support.
This isn't me admitting defeat BTW, I'm just saying that a newer leader would obviously be doing better.
I say all that - but they'll dig up stuff on Starmer too and we'll be back calling him a racist terrorist anti-Semite in a couple of years I suspect. It's just how things work.
If Labour has to be centrist to win then that's what it needs to be. But I don't think they'll get my vote, or have much youth voting in their direction. They probably won't need that to win of course - but it will be sad to have a generation feel excluded again. Such is life I suppose.
Yes, most of that debt is getting written off anyway.
Honestly, that's like giving a clapped out old car a new paint job and saying it's a new car. It's not the paint job that's the issue (though it's doesn't help) it's the clapped out old car. This country will never vote for a socialist party, too many people can do basic maths and see socialism doesn't work, nothing is free.
Labour's policies obviously have support, I mean who doesn't want free broadband? The issue is credibility and whoever tries to sell these tired ideas to the public will get the same reaction, people's bullshit detectors will go off.
Like I said, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, that's what it should be.
They probably won't get my vote - but like I said they probably don't need it in such a case.
If it gets the Tories out, I'll be broadly in favour of it. But I won't vote with much enthusiasm, if I do at all.
That's just me being honest.
Fair enough, though I expect by the time the next election comes around you may feel differently. 5 years is a long time and I don't think the same now as I did when I was in my early 20s.
I don't doubt my views might change - but I don't think I'll be voting for a Tory Party in five years. Feel free to come back to me then.
If you lower them to £3K, what will you do about all those who paid £9000? Give them a refund?
I think Labour could win on a manifesto similar to what it is running on now, with a leader like Starmer. It's not the policies that are the problem for me, it's Corbyn. The policies have public support.
This isn't me admitting defeat BTW, I'm just saying that a newer leader would obviously be doing better.
I say all that - but they'll dig up stuff on Starmer too and we'll be back calling him a racist terrorist anti-Semite in a couple of years I suspect. It's just how things work.
If Labour has to be centrist to win then that's what it needs to be. But I don't think they'll get my vote, or have much youth voting in their direction. They probably won't need that to win of course - but it will be sad to have a generation feel excluded again. Such is life I suppose.
Yes, most of that debt is getting written off anyway.
Honestly, that's like giving a clapped out old car a new paint job and saying it's a new car. It's not the paint job that's the issue (though it's doesn't help) it's the clapped out old car. This country will never vote for a socialist party, too many people can do basic maths and see socialism doesn't work, nothing is free.
Labour's policies obviously have support, I mean who doesn't want free broadband? The issue is credibility and whoever tries to sell these tired ideas to the public will get the same reaction, people's bullshit detectors will go off.
Like I said, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, that's what it should be.
They probably won't get my vote - but like I said they probably don't need it in such a case.
If it gets the Tories out, I'll be broadly in favour of it. But I won't vote with much enthusiasm, if I do at all.
That's just me being honest.
Fair enough, though I expect by the time the next election comes around you may feel differently. 5 years is a long time and I don't think the same now as I did when I was in my early 20s.
I don't doubt my views might change - but I don't think I'll be voting for a Tory Party in five years. Feel free to come back to me then.
You'll be voting tory eventually.. it's just a matter of time
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understand the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
So Corbyn won the undecideds again, just. That is interesting.
Though there were only 115 undecideds to 1037 definitely decideds
Those are the raw figures no? It should be representative of the population, hence it should be a lot more people in actual fact.
Percentage wise not
Percentage wise, it was 9% of the electorate I think somebody said above. That is potentially very crucial, of course it depends where these people are.
We will see if it has any real impact, not long to wait now.
Busy weekend of campaigning coming up, Harlow tomorrow morning, Epping and Chingford tomorrow afternoon and Enfield Southgate on Sunday and possibly phoning in Vale of Clwyd on Monday night. So heading to bed shortly, night all
Fair play, good luck and well done to all PBers who are out there campaigning and canvassing, whether it is for the Libs, BXP, UKIP, the Greens, Tommy Robinson, the SWP, Corbyn's communists, or Mebyon Kernow's paramilitary wing (which I just invented). You are a fundamental part of democracy, in all its shabby glory.
Take a big old British bow, and a europhile pat on the back.
I don't doubt my views might change - but I don't think I'll be voting for a Tory Party in five years. Feel free to come back to me then.
That's not what I meant, you may be more enthusiastic about a centrist Labour party by then. The current Labour party is student politics, New Labour, for all the faults, were the adults in the room.
As I said, it's just a feeling, but most people change their political outlook as they get older (and hopefully wiser). For some that means more right wing, for others it means more action on green issues, I've found with loads of my lefty friends from my student days it is longing for a centre left party they can call home. They all loathe this Labour party, but we grew up with New Labour so they know the difference.
A little-known fact is that in 2017 the updated MRP figures were less accurate than the original figures compared to the election result.
Original figures were Con 310, Lab 257. Updated figures were Con 303, Lab 269. Result was Con 318, Lab 262.
@Andy_JS - Interesting. Do you know whether YouGov will be releasing estimated margins of error for each constituency, as they did last time? I mean all in one file, rather than as data collectable by clicking on hundreds of little hexagons on the map. If you or someone else can autoscrape this, could you possibly post the spreadsheet? In 2017 as the results came in my model worked not on "swing" from the MRP, but on swing from MRP divided by expected error. So I treated a result of 40% rather than a YG-predicted 35% as much more significant if YG had said 35%+/-2% than if they'd said 35%+/-6%. I can't recall whether I went back and checked for whether this was more predictive than just using swing, but after about 20 results my predicted seat totals were closer than the BBC's to the final results.
I've done a spreadsheet with the data but it doesn't have the margins of error at the moment. But they were on another spreadsheet I saw.
So Corbyn won the undecideds again, just. That is interesting.
Though there were only 115 undecideds to 1037 definitely decideds
Those are the raw figures no? It should be representative of the population, hence it should be a lot more people in actual fact.
Percentage wise not
Percentage wise, it was 9% of the electorate I think somebody said above. That is potentially very crucial, of course it depends where these people are.
We will see if it has any real impact, not long to wait now.
51% to 49% of 9% is just over 4% to Labour and just under 4% to the Tories on top of their current poll rating
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
I think if Labour is comprehensively defeated, they really need to get rid of much of the current leadership, cabinet, etc. and start afresh. Really the only person to do that seems to be Starmer, as he's the only one who can really bridge the party back together.
For what it's worth, I expect what will happen is Starmer will probably win, because he has probably 40% of the party already sown up (those who voted against Corbyn) and if it's a multiple contest on the other side between left wingers he'll win by a split vote.
I might put some money down on Starmer. I don't have the same enthusiasm for him as I did when Corbyn arrived - but he seems like the most logical person to move Labour on from here.
Like I said, Labour under him won't be Blairite - but they probably won't get my vote if they're just bland boring centrist stuff, they won't need it. I won't care frankly.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Don't think it will be that easy,people are sick of the Europe debate & the thought of another one, referendum etc. will be a massive turn off. Also if the doom mongers are wrong why change anything.
I don't doubt my views might change - but I don't think I'll be voting for a Tory Party in five years. Feel free to come back to me then.
That's not what I meant, you may be more enthusiastic about a centrist Labour party by then. The current Labour party is student politics, New Labour, for all the faults, were the adults in the room.
As I said, it's just a feeling, but most people change their political outlook as they get older (and hopefully wiser). For some that means more right wing, for others it means more action on green issues, I've found with loads of my lefty friends from my student days it is longing for a centre left party they can call home. They all loathe this Labour party, but we grew up with New Labour so they know the difference.
I think for me in many ways, similarly to Labour now, this is a last throw of the dice for me and politics. If this goes wrong, I'm going to rapidly lose interest in the whole thing and go back to not voting.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understand the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
I don't know if you were alive in 1997, but there was Blair-mania. It was a much, much bigger thing than what we Jez had in 2017 and vastly bigger than this year.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
I'm a bit drunk, and I just tupped the wife, so I am a bit blearly and benign, but I have vague hopes Labour will come to their senses and tack to the centre-left. And do something for younger generations, who really are getting a shit deal, right now.
Heck I might even vote for them, if they drop the insane Marxism.
Busy weekend of campaigning coming up, Harlow tomorrow morning, Epping and Chingford tomorrow afternoon and Enfield Southgate on Sunday and possibly phoning in Vale of Clwyd on Monday night. So heading to bed shortly, night all
Fair play, good luck and well done to all PBers who are out there campaigning and canvassing, whether it is for the Libs, BXP, UKIP, the Greens, Tommy Robinson, the SWP, Corbyn's communists, or Mebyon Kernow's paramilitary wing (which I just invented). You are a fundamental part of democracy, in all its shabby glory.
Take a big old British bow, and a europhile pat on the back.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
I think if Labour is comprehensively defeated, they really need to get rid of much of the current leadership, cabinet, etc. and start afresh. Really the only person to do that seems to be Starmer, as he's the only one who can really bridge the party back together.
For what it's worth, I expect what will happen is Starmer will probably win, because he has probably 40% of the party already sown up (those who voted against Corbyn) and if it's a multiple contest on the other side between left wingers he'll win by a split vote.
I might put some money down on Starmer. I don't have the same enthusiasm for him as I did when Corbyn arrived - but he seems like the most logical person to move Labour on from here.
Like I said, Labour under him won't be Blairite - but they probably won't get my vote if they're just bland boring centrist stuff, they won't need it. I won't care frankly.
How can they elect Starmer while Momentum is around & the £ 3 vote?
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understand the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
I don't know if you were alive in 1997, but there was Blair-mania. It was a much, much bigger thing than what we Jez had in 2017 and vastly bigger than this year.
I was alive then - but I can't relate to it so I have no ability to compare it to what I've experienced.
I'm just saying I won't have the same enthusiasm for a Starmer Labour Party - but that doesn't make it the wrong choice, not at all.
I think I'm going to lose interest whatever happens, if I am honest.
I don't doubt my views might change - but I don't think I'll be voting for a Tory Party in five years. Feel free to come back to me then.
That's not what I meant, you may be more enthusiastic about a centrist Labour party by then. The current Labour party is student politics, New Labour, for all the faults, were the adults in the room.
As I said, it's just a feeling, but most people change their political outlook as they get older (and hopefully wiser). For some that means more right wing, for others it means more action on green issues, I've found with loads of my lefty friends from my student days it is longing for a centre left party they can call home. They all loathe this Labour party, but we grew up with New Labour so they know the difference.
Some of us who grew up with New Labour are crying out for a pro-leave version to vote for today; and rather hoping it will form after the fact.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Don't think it will be that easy,people are sick of the Europe debate & the thought of another one, referendum etc. will be a massive turn off. Also if the doom mongers are wrong why change anything.
You miss my point. Joining EEA/EFTA could easily (and rightly) be sold as a trade change, not a constitutional revolution. As such it wouldn't need a referendum.
I solemnly predict that, if Boris wins next week, Labour will put this in their next manifesto. The LDs will go for total Rejoin.
Never understood the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is based on the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
I suspect it largely mirrors the way I've felt about the last few years worth of Tory government. We're technically on the same side; in the same big tent, but it's really not that aligned with what I truly believe and some of it requires huge mental gymnastics to internally defend, let alone externally justify.
But needs must when there's no realistic alternative. Still, I'm not even sure if I'll bothered getting active on polling day this time - which I always do. That's how disillusioned I am.
If, in the future there is a properly Libertarian Tory party, I shall be heavily involved and looking back on the May/Johnson years (and possibly that massive majority in 2019!) in much the same way that the hard left now view the man Blair.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
2024 will be 14 years in to a Tory government.
It will be cruel on the Labour left if just as they are in a strong position to win a GE on their own terms they are usurped by the careerist centrists again.
However, if there is another hard-left leader after Corbyn then all bets are off and assets will be being moved offshore 6 months before the election.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
I think if Labour is comprehensively defeated, they really need to get rid of much of the current leadership, cabinet, etc. and start afresh. Really the only person to do that seems to be Starmer, as he's the only one who can really bridge the party back together.
For what it's worth, I expect what will happen is Starmer will probably win, because he has probably 40% of the party already sown up (those who voted against Corbyn) and if it's a multiple contest on the other side between left wingers he'll win by a split vote.
I might put some money down on Starmer. I don't have the same enthusiasm for him as I did when Corbyn arrived - but he seems like the most logical person to move Labour on from here.
Like I said, Labour under him won't be Blairite - but they probably won't get my vote if they're just bland boring centrist stuff, they won't need it. I won't care frankly.
How can they elect Starmer while Momentum is around & the £ 3 vote?
Smith got 40% of the vote with that lot around, he lost because Corbyn's vote was consolidated around him.
This time around, there are going to be multiple left wingers and Starmer. He has a decent chance of winning on a split vote.
I kind of get the sense - despite all the bluster - that Momentum is not going to have as much of an impact on the next leader as everyone thinks.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understand the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
I don't know if you were alive in 1997, but there was Blair-mania. It was a much, much bigger thing than what we Jez had in 2017 and vastly bigger than this year.
I was alive then - but I can't relate to it so I have no ability to compare it to what I've experienced.
I'm just saying I won't have the same enthusiasm for a Starmer Labour Party - but that doesn't make it the wrong choice, not at all.
I think I'm going to lose interest whatever happens, if I am honest.
Don't lose interest! Politics needs young people.
So you have probably lost this one. You had a very very shit leader, who should not have been anywhere near power. Learn from it,
Remember: lots of Labour's policies are popular. As they should be. The world needs rebalancing. Old people have it too easy. The pendulum MUST swing.
Your time will come, and imagine how sweet the victory will be, after all this frustration.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understand the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
I don't know if you were alive in 1997, but there was Blair-mania. It was a much, much bigger thing than what we Jez had in 2017 and vastly bigger than this year.
I was alive then - but I can't relate to it so I have no ability to compare it to what I've experienced.
I'm just saying I won't have the same enthusiasm for a Starmer Labour Party - but that doesn't make it the wrong choice, not at all.
I think I'm going to lose interest whatever happens, if I am honest.
Don't lose interest! Politics needs young people.
So you have probably lost this one. You had a very very shit leader, who should not have been anywhere near power. Learn from it,
Remember: lots of Labour's policies are popular. As they should be. The world needs rebalancing. Old people have it too easy. The pendulum MUST swing.
Your time will come, and imagine how sweet the victory will be, after all this frustration.
I haven't given up hope yet - still lots to do and I remain confident in a Hung Parliament.
And bowing out isn't giving up, I just have other things to move onto and I just don't have the energy to be interested in this again. I'll let stronger people than I get involved from here.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
That's was exactly the reaction after Michael Foot's defeat with the claim that voters didn't understand the manifesto & Labour did not explain it clearly enough.
Like I said, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, that's what it should be.
They don't need to be centrist they just need time. In all likelihood the country will be ready by 2024 to give socialism a try.
They could have been hard left in 1997 and still won but they were persuaded they needed to be Tory-lite by Blair. They shouldn't listen to centrists who will try and cheat them again just as they are on the cusp of winning.
I personally hope they listen by the way but they shouldn't.
Like I said, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, that's what it should be.
They don't need to be centrist they just need time. In all likelihood the country will be ready by 2024 to give socialism a try.
They could have been hard left in 1997 and still won but they were persuaded they needed to be Tory-lite by Blair. They shouldn't listen to centrists who will try and cheat them again just as they are on the cusp of winning.
I personally hope they listen by the way but they shouldn't.
Yes and no. Any Labour leader would have won, but Blair made it a landslide and ensured more than one term.
The other thing the next leader needs is a better press team, this lot are dreadful.
I hate to say this but sometimes you really do need to play the game to win. Get a 2019 Alastair Campbell in. I'm not saying spin spin spin but do get somebody who understands how the media works and train the next leader a bit better.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understand the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
I don't know if you were alive in 1997, but there was Blair-mania. It was a much, much bigger thing than what we Jez had in 2017 and vastly bigger than this year.
I was alive then - but I can't relate to it so I have no ability to compare it to what I've experienced.
I'm just saying I won't have the same enthusiasm for a Starmer Labour Party - but that doesn't make it the wrong choice, not at all.
I think I'm going to lose interest whatever happens, if I am honest.
There might be when you are older a greater appreciation that politics is the art of the possible. It seems to me the left don't want to acknowledge that and on their (your) terms prefer to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Which is a shame because a centre left non Tory party really needs you.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understand the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
I don't know if you were alive in 1997, but there was Blair-mania. It was a much, much bigger thing than what we Jez had in 2017 and vastly bigger than this year.
I was alive then - but I can't relate to it so I have no ability to compare it to what I've experienced.
I'm just saying I won't have the same enthusiasm for a Starmer Labour Party - but that doesn't make it the wrong choice, not at all.
I think I'm going to lose interest whatever happens, if I am honest.
There might be when you are older a greater appreciation that politics is the art of the possible. It seems to me the left don't want to acknowledge that and on their (your) terms prefer to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Which is a shame because a centre left non Tory party really needs you.
I wish them all the best with whatever they do, if they get the Tories out, great.
But I don't have the energy for it anymore, I'm only being honest and I find it exciting but also exhausting.
The other thing the next leader needs is a better press team, this lot are dreadful.
I hate to say this but sometimes you really do need to play the game to win. Get a 2019 Alastair Campbell in. I'm not saying spin spin spin but do get somebody who understands how the media works and train the next leader a bit better.
The thing about Campbell was that he and Blair didn’t do media in the way their enemies suggested. They had a clear mission, and they executed it. And they did so much good. Far more than Corbyn ever has, and it breaks my heart that you can’t see that.
It’s Blair who should be a hero to liberals and the left.
The other thing the next leader needs is a better press team, this lot are dreadful.
I hate to say this but sometimes you really do need to play the game to win. Get a 2019 Alastair Campbell in. I'm not saying spin spin spin but do get somebody who understands how the media works and train the next leader a bit better.
The thing about Campbell was that he and Blair didn’t do media in the way their enemies suggested. They had a clear mission, and they executed it. And they did so much good. Far more than Corbyn ever has, and it breaks my heart that you can’t see that.
It’s Blair who should be a hero to liberals and the left.
When did I say Blair didn't do good, don't put words in my mouth.
I've literally said three times, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, then it can be centrist to win.
It's not my politics, it's not what I ideally want - but I am doing literally exactly what you said and accepting that reality and allowing it to happen.
But I don't have to be happy about it - and I don't have to get involved in it. But if it happens and the Tories are out, great, I will be pleased.
The other thing the next leader needs is a better press team, this lot are dreadful.
I hate to say this but sometimes you really do need to play the game to win. Get a 2019 Alastair Campbell in. I'm not saying spin spin spin but do get somebody who understands how the media works and train the next leader a bit better.
The thing about Campbell was that he and Blair didn’t do media in the way their enemies suggested. They had a clear mission, and they executed it. And they did so much good. Far more than Corbyn ever has, and it breaks my heart that you can’t see that.
It’s Blair who should be a hero to liberals and the left.
When did I say Blair didn't do good, don't put words in my mouth.
I've literally said three times, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, then it can be centrist to win.
It's not my politics, it's not what I ideally want - but I am doing literally exactly what you said and accepting that reality and allowing it to happen.
But I don't have to be happy about it - and I don't have to get involved in it. But if it happens and the Tories are out, great, I will be pleased.
Yeah you’ve missed the point. Oh well. Good night.
I don't doubt my views might change - but I don't think I'll be voting for a Tory Party in five years. Feel free to come back to me then.
That's not what I meant, you may be more enthusiastic about a centrist Labour party by then. The current Labour party is student politics, New Labour, for all the faults, were the adults in the room.
As I said, it's just a feeling, but most people change their political outlook as they get older (and hopefully wiser). For some that means more right wing, for others it means more action on green issues, I've found with loads of my lefty friends from my student days it is longing for a centre left party they can call home. They all loathe this Labour party, but we grew up with New Labour so they know the difference.
I think for me in many ways, similarly to Labour now, this is a last throw of the dice for me and politics. If this goes wrong, I'm going to rapidly lose interest in the whole thing and go back to not voting.
But do come back to me in a few years.
I genuinely don't understand this attitude. The current version of the Tory Party aligns only imperfectly with all my political beliefs and passions, but I vote for them because the alternative is directly opposed to me. If I waited for a dream leadership that represented the majority of my views, I might end up voting only once or twice in a lifetime...
The other thing the next leader needs is a better press team, this lot are dreadful.
I hate to say this but sometimes you really do need to play the game to win. Get a 2019 Alastair Campbell in. I'm not saying spin spin spin but do get somebody who understands how the media works and train the next leader a bit better.
The thing about Campbell was that he and Blair didn’t do media in the way their enemies suggested. They had a clear mission, and they executed it. And they did so much good. Far more than Corbyn ever has, and it breaks my heart that you can’t see that.
It’s Blair who should be a hero to liberals and the left.
Take away Iraq (admittedly a massive issue) and Blair would be almost universally admired. A titan to match Thatcher, Attlee, even Churchill.
Ah, ye gods. Iraq! If that war hadn't happened, where would we be now? A much happier country, I think, and in so many ways. Ditto America.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Nevs due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Rem
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
I don't know if you were alive in 1997, but there was Blair-mania. It was a much, much bigger thing than what we Jez had in 2017 and vastly bigger than this year.
I was alive then - but I can't relate to it so I have no ability to compare it to what I've experienced.
I'm just saying I won't have the same enthusiasm for a Starmer Labour Party - but that doesn't make it the wrong choice, not at all.
I think I'm going to lose interest whatever happens, if I am honest.
There might be when you are older a greater appreciation that politics is the art of the possible. It seems to me the left don't want to acknowledge that and on their (your) terms prefer to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Which is a shame because a centre left non Tory party really needs you.
I wish them all the best with whatever they do, if they get the Tories out, great.
But I don't have the energy for it anymore, I'm only being honest and I find it exciting but also exhausting.
Yeah it also needs stamina, belief and hard work. Look at @HYUFD. Tried for office, out campaigning. Look at any MP. Out all hours of all days as a day job.
Politics doesn't suit nor does it reward dilettantes.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
2024 will be 14 years in to a Tory government.
It will be cruel on the Labour left if just as they are in a strong position to win a GE on their own terms they are usurped by the careerist centrists again.
However, if there is another hard-left leader after Corbyn then all bets are off and assets will be being moved offshore 6 months before the election.
Or Labour will be put out of its misery and overtaken by a Chuka Umunna led LDs if after 2 defeats on it Labour tries a third time with a Corbynite manifesto
But I don't have the energy for it anymore, I'm only being honest and I find it exciting but also exhausting.
When you have an hour randomly pick headers from any period you fancy.
Have a look at the comments and wonder at the hysterical overreactions from all sides to the minutiae of events that have now long been forgotten.
In fact, go back to the first few threads after the election was called and see how irrelevant the vast majority of it is.
My point being that if you treat politics like every event, statement, screw-up is seismic it will drive you nuts (see twitter).
The vast majority of the public give little to no heed to politics until the last couple of weeks of an election campaign...and in the meantime the political anoraks have burnt themselves out worrying if their leaders glasses being wonky might cost votes.
And in the end nothing REALLY changes that much anyway.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Labour need a more centrist leader and policies to be able to win in the future.
Never understand the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
If they want to bring a Blair-like figure back in to win then I'm for it.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
I don't know if you were alive in 1997, but there was Blair-mania. It was a much, much bigger thing than what we Jez had in 2017 and vastly bigger than this year.
I was alive then - but I can't relate to it so I have no ability to compare it to what I've experienced.
I'm just saying I won't have the same enthusiasm for a Starmer Labour Party - but that doesn't make it the wrong choice, not at all.
I think I'm going to lose interest whatever happens, if I am honest.
There might be when you are older a greater appreciation that politics is the art of the possible. It seems to me the left don't want to acknowledge that and on their (your) terms prefer to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Which is a shame because a centre left non Tory party really needs you.
I wish them all the best with whatever they do, if they get the Tories out, great.
But I don't have the energy for it anymore, I'm only being honest and I find it exciting but also exhausting.
Not much of a fighter then to throw the towel in so quickly.
For me to be involved in politics, I need something that engages me and gets me excited. A centrist party won't do that.
But it's not about what I want, it's what the country wants. If to get the Tories out, Labour needs to be centrist, then it can be centrist. Get the Tories out, I am happy with that.
But I won't be involved - because I just don't have the interest in such a project. I'm only being honest about that.
My feeling on it basically is that if I felt the country was really at stake again, then of course I'd come out to vote - but my feeling with a centrist Labour is they'll be almost guaranteed a 1997 style result, so I really won't need to get involved and that's fine with me.
I'm sorry if you don't like that view - but it is what I think. I actually don't think I'm doing what you accuse me of, i.e. being ideologically pure, I think I'm doing the opposite and letting others do the pragmatic thing. But it doesn't mean I have to be involved.
I accept in that case I've lost - and I'll move on with my life. I've enjoyed this short period of political engagement but if that's the end, that's the end. I'll move onto other things, got a career and so on to build.
I don't intend to leave here though, I'll still be around I'm sure.
I think I'll fight for the right cause - but I need to have a reason to fight. And I don't foresee that as the direction Labour will be going in. Such is life.
I expected this reaction - I don't much mind what people think about me, I've been honest about what I think and that's that.
If another Corbyn like figure comes along, I'm sure I'll be right back into it. But in the short term at least, I think that's unlikely.
But I'm happy enough with that for now, like I said, if the Tories are out, then great. That's really enough for me at the end of the day. Would I like more yes - but I'm also able to realise that some battles aren't winnable. Perhaps in the future but not for now. I accept that.
But for now, I'll remain hopeful of a Hung Parliament.
Or Labour will be put out of its misery and overtaken by a Chuka Umunna led LDs if after 2 defeats on it Labour tries a third time with a Corbynite manifesto
If Labour move further left after the election i'll be backing them for 2024.
Brexit will be over for the wwc and they will be back in harness along with the millennials, Gen X and Gen Y who will all have had a few years to get even angrier about the disparities in inter-generational wealth.
The Tories will need to work really hard in the next parliament because the electoral crutch of Brexit will be gone.
For what it's worth, if we do end up leaving with Johnson I have no interest in a rejoin campaign. Labour should campaign for a softer relationship and move onto the issues that actually matter, with a new leader, still with radical policies but with fresh leadership.
Yes, I don't understand why Remainers aren't understanding this yet.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
I think if Labour is comprehensively defeated, they really need to get rid of much of the current leadership, cabinet, etc. and start afresh. Really the only person to do that seems to be Starmer, as he's the only one who can really bridge the party back together.
For what it's worth, I expect what will happen is Starmer will probably win, because he has probably 40% of the party already sown up (those who voted against Corbyn) and if it's a multiple contest on the other side between left wingers he'll win by a split vote.
I might put some money down on Starmer. I don't have the same enthusiasm for him as I did when Corbyn arrived - but he seems like the most logical person to move Labour on from here.
Like I said, Labour under him won't be Blairite - but they probably won't get my vote if they're just bland boring centrist stuff, they won't need it. I won't care frankly.
How can they elect Starmer while Momentum is around & the £ 3 vote?
Smith got 40% of the vote with that lot around, he lost because Corbyn's vote was consolidated around him.
This time around, there are going to be multiple left wingers and Starmer. He has a decent chance of winning on a split vote.
I kind of get the sense - despite all the bluster - that Momentum is not going to have as much of an impact on the next leader as everyone thinks.
I don't think it's bluster,unless Labour changes their voting system Momentum & the £3 vote which included many Tory voters completely negates against a moderate leader.
I think if you're expecting Starmer to be a Blairite you're going to be disappointed. He'll be less radical than say Rayner - but it's not going to be about Blair vs Corbyn this time around. The vote will be far more split around I think.
I think if you're expecting Starmer to be a Blairite you're going to be disappointed. He'll be less radical than say Rayner - but it's not going to be about Blair vs Corbyn this time around. The vote will be far more split around I think.
Said before I think there'll be a North vs London/SE element to it as well.
I'd be minded to back (from a betting perspective) a candidate who was from and represented somewhere North of Watford Gap
Or Labour will be put out of its misery and overtaken by a Chuka Umunna led LDs if after 2 defeats on it Labour tries a third time with a Corbynite manifesto
If Labour move further left after the election i'll be backing them for 2024.
Brexit will be over for the wwc and they will be back in harness along with the millennials, Gen X and Gen Y who will all have had a few years to get even angrier about the disparities in inter-generational wealth.
The Tories will need to work really hard in the next parliament because the electoral crutch of Brexit will be gone.
Agree & they need to do something on housing very urgently (both council & private),starting by making it a cabinet position.
I think if you're expecting Starmer to be a Blairite you're going to be disappointed. He'll be less radical than say Rayner - but it's not going to be about Blair vs Corbyn this time around. The vote will be far more split around I think.
Said before I think there'll be a North vs London/SE element to it as well.
I do wonder what will happen if a true Corbynite gets elected again. Will the party finally split this time or will the party unify because the leader isn't Corbyn?
If it's somebody without any baggage, then I wonder what reasons will be cited for any such split? Economic policy perhaps - but that won't be a popular position with the membership.
Starmer is evidently the most logical choice to lead the party.
I think if you're expecting Starmer to be a Blairite you're going to be disappointed. He'll be less radical than say Rayner - but it's not going to be about Blair vs Corbyn this time around. The vote will be far more split around I think.
Said before I think there'll be a North vs London/SE element to it as well.
I'd be minded to back a candidate who was from and represented somewhere North of Watford Gap
The new leader will also presumably have the IHRA investigation to deal with. I suspect Starmer will come out relatively unscathed - but other members of the Shadow Cabinet closer to Corbyn may well not.
Or Labour will be put out of its misery and overtaken by a Chuka Umunna led LDs if after 2 defeats on it Labour tries a third time with a Corbynite manifesto
If Labour move further left after the election i'll be backing them for 2024.
Brexit will be over for the wwc and they will be back in harness along with the millennials, Gen X and Gen Y who will all have had a few years to get even angrier about the disparities in inter-generational wealth.
The Tories will need to work really hard in the next parliament because the electoral crutch of Brexit will be gone.
Corbyn Labour is never going to win the Remain or soft Leave voting marginals in London or the South from the Tories it needs for a majority (though a more centrist Labour or LD leader might) and culturally its Leave seats in Wales, the North and Midlands and East are moving away from it and it has already lost most of its Scottish seats to the SNP.
Most voters over 35 now own a property so Labour will be back to the under 35s this time as it was in 2015 now the dementia tax issue is no more
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
2024 will be 14 years in to a Tory government.
It will be cruel on the Labour left if just as they are in a strong position to win a GE on their own terms they are usurped by the careerist centrists again.
However, if there is another hard-left leader after Corbyn then all bets are off and assets will be being moved offshore 6 months before the election.
Or Labour will be put out of its misery and overtaken by a Chuka Umunna led LDs if after 2 defeats on it Labour tries a third time with a Corbynite manifesto
Some of the poorest people in U.K. are flocking to Boris because they believe his hard brexit will transform their lives and their forgotten communities. Anyone here sure it will? Also Corbyn is reviled and easily rebutted because of past associations and campaigns “don’t lecture me on Ireland mister corbyn.” A labour leadership without such backstory, and Boris trying to deliver for his coalition of voters and not let them down. It’s easy to imagine how a similar Labour manifesto next time will get elected.
I think if you're expecting Starmer to be a Blairite you're going to be disappointed. He'll be less radical than say Rayner - but it's not going to be about Blair vs Corbyn this time around. The vote will be far more split around I think.
Said before I think there'll be a North vs London/SE element to it as well.
I'd be minded to back a candidate who was from and represented somewhere North of Watford Gap
Rayner then.
It used to be a big deal to have a leader without any ministerial experience,to combine that with no educational qualifications would be off the Richter scale..
The new leader will also presumably have the IHRA investigation to deal with. I suspect Starmer will come out relatively unscathed - but other members of the Shadow Cabinet closer to Corbyn may well not.
Starmer seems like the sort of politician who thinks the answer to everything is more bureaucracy. I couldn't support him as Labour leader.
I think Labour needs to find a new version of Tony Blair, someone who has an optimistic attitude towards success, doesn't believe in conspiracies, and isn't obsessed with uncovering grievances at every opportunity with which to make people feel envious of others. Someone whose default attitude is to see the best in other people including their opponents, instead of being miserable and defeatist. That would be my advice. Labour left-wingers will absolutely hate it I expect. Don't forget Tony Blair is the only Labour leader to have won a working majority at an election since 1966. Yvette Cooper is the best option I can see at the moment.
LOL at Curtice saying 30% chance of a HP, disbelief from many here. I think there's a strong chance of one.
There's certainly a chance and 30% is about the current betting price but Curtice was still very cautious on Referendum night hours after PB had predicted a Leave win.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
2024 will be 14 years in to a Tory government.
It will be cruel on the Labour left if just as they are in a strong position to win a GE on their own terms they are usurped by the careerist centrists again.
However, if there is another hard-left leader after Corbyn then all bets are off and assets will be being moved offshore 6 months before the election.
Or Labour will be put out of its misery and overtaken by a Chuka Umunna led LDs if after 2 defeats on it Labour tries a third time with a Corbynite manifesto
Some of the poorest people in U.K. are flocking to Boris because they believe his hard brexit will transform their lives and their forgotten communities. Anyone here sure it will? Also Corbyn is reviled and easily rebutted because of past associations and campaigns “don’t lecture me on Ireland mister corbyn.” A labour leadership without such backstory, and Boris trying to deliver for his coalition of voters and not let them down. It’s easy to imagine how a similar Labour manifesto next time will get elected.
I think if you're expecting Starmer to be a Blairite you're going to be disappointed. He'll be less radical than say Rayner - but it's not going to be about Blair vs Corbyn this time around. The vote will be far more split around I think.
Said before I think there'll be a North vs London/SE element to it as well.
I'd be minded to back a candidate who was from and represented somewhere North of Watford Gap
Rayner then.
Jon Ashworth unless the party is set on a female leader.
Along with nationalising the top 100 FTSE companies, a defeated Labour under its new leader Laura Pidcock and Shadow Chancellor Owen Jones (after winning an inner London by election) clearly deciding the losing 2019 manifesto was not leftwing enough
2024 will be 14 years in to a Tory government.
It will be cruel on the Labour left if just as they are in a strong position to win a GE on their own terms they are usurped by the careerist centrists again.
However, if there is another hard-left leader after Corbyn then all bets are off and assets will be being moved offshore 6 months before the election.
Or Labour will be put out of its misery and overtaken by a Chuka Umunna led LDs if after 2 defeats on it Labour tries a third time with a Corbynite manifesto
Some of the poorest people in U.K. are flocking to Boris because they believe his hard brexit will transform their lives and their forgotten communities. Anyone here sure it will? Also Corbyn is reviled and easily rebutted because of past associations and campaigns “don’t lecture me on Ireland mister corbyn.” A labour leadership without such backstory, and Boris trying to deliver for his coalition of voters and not let them down. It’s easy to imagine how a similar Labour manifesto next time will get elected.
It won't, property owners in the key Tory held marginals in the South and Midlands will never vote Corbyn Labour, though they might vote for more centrist Labour or LD. If Labour refuse to learn the lesson of 4 successive likely defeats after Blair and going successively more leftwing and want to ensure 20 years of Tory rule be my guest
The new leader will also presumably have the IHRA investigation to deal with. I suspect Starmer will come out relatively unscathed - but other members of the Shadow Cabinet closer to Corbyn may well not.
Hopefully the court cases and damages arising from the EHRC investigation will end the Labour Party and none of us will have to worry about it...
I think if you're expecting Starmer to be a Blairite you're going to be disappointed. He'll be less radical than say Rayner - but it's not going to be about Blair vs Corbyn this time around. The vote will be far more split around I think.
Said before I think there'll be a North vs London/SE element to it as well.
I'd be minded to back a candidate who was from and represented somewhere North of Watford Gap
Rayner then.
It used to be a big deal to have a leader without any ministerial experience,to combine that with no educational qualifications would be off the Richter scale..
Corbyn had no ministerial experience, no degree, and a couple of pisspoor A Levels.
Comments
By contrast 21% of Remainers are voting LD and just 16% voting Tory.
The results speak for themselves and hard to see the LDs holding Leave voting North Norfolk.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0sn9uoewzm/Sky_Times_VI_191203_w.pdf
I think Labour could win on a manifesto similar to what it is running on now, with a leader like Starmer. It's not the policies that are the problem for me, it's Corbyn. The policies have public support.
This isn't me admitting defeat BTW, I'm just saying that a newer leader would obviously be doing better.
I say all that - but they'll dig up stuff on Starmer too and we'll be back calling him a racist terrorist anti-Semite in a couple of years I suspect. It's just how things work.
If Labour has to be centrist to win then that's what it needs to be. But I don't think they'll get my vote, or have much youth voting in their direction. They probably won't need that to win of course - but it will be sad to have a generation feel excluded again. Such is life I suppose.
Leavers thought Boris won 79% to 21%, Remainers thought Corbyn won 75% to 25%.
Boris won 53% to 47% with those who already have decided how to vote, Corbyn edged it 51% to 49% with those yet to decide.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gci96le4hp/FULL_Debates_191206_v2.pdf
The Lib Dems will lose the Tory defectors & probably Chuka Harrison, assuming they don't lose any of their 2017 intake I would forecast 12 - 15 seats.
Honestly, that's like giving a clapped out old car a new paint job and saying it's a new car. It's not the paint job that's the issue (though it's doesn't help) it's the clapped out old car. This country will never vote for a socialist party, too many people can do basic maths and see socialism doesn't work, nothing is free.
Labour's policies obviously have support, I mean who doesn't want free broadband? The issue is credibility and whoever tries to sell these tired ideas to the public will get the same reaction, people's bullshit detectors will go off.
They probably won't get my vote - but like I said they probably don't need it in such a case.
If it gets the Tories out, I'll be broadly in favour of it. But I won't vote with much enthusiasm, if I do at all.
That's just me being honest.
Calling and winning a Rejoin referendum is going to be V hard for a while, but winning an election on joining EEA/EFTA, with Single Market/CU membership, and some tweaks to Free Movement, would be a cinch. The Tories would be allergic, but Labour could sell it easily, as it would appeal to Remainers and Soft Leavers.
It should go straight into the next Labour manifesto (2024). I hereby predict that will happen.
* Brexit is the most polarised issue of the four, with nobody saying they performed equally well; and
* many consider the NHS to be a much more important issue than Brexit, government spending, and terrorism and security.
In roughly 3 out of 10 futures, Jeremy Corbyn is the next prime minister.
Never understood the current Labour hatred for Blair who actually won three elections due to fairly moderate policies,maybe the hatred is based on the Iraq lies, consequent shambles not to mention the death toll.
It won't generate the same enthusiasm as Corbyn once did but like I said above, they won't need "us lot" anyway. Still, it will be sad for me personally to be at least somewhat ignored again. Oh well.
Like I said also, I probably won't bother to vote - but probably because I wouldn't feel the need to. In this election there is a lot at stake - and I think in future ones that won't be the case for me (and others I've spoken to).
This is a real last roll of the dice in many ways, for Remain but also for a truly left wing party. I don't believe Labour will become Blairite again under Starmer - but it won't be the same Labour Party that it is now.
And you know what? Perhaps that's for the best.
We will see if it has any real impact, not long to wait now.
Take a big old British bow, and a europhile pat on the back.
As I said, it's just a feeling, but most people change their political outlook as they get older (and hopefully wiser). For some that means more right wing, for others it means more action on green issues, I've found with loads of my lefty friends from my student days it is longing for a centre left party they can call home. They all loathe this Labour party, but we grew up with New Labour so they know the difference.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
For what it's worth, I expect what will happen is Starmer will probably win, because he has probably 40% of the party already sown up (those who voted against Corbyn) and if it's a multiple contest on the other side between left wingers he'll win by a split vote.
I might put some money down on Starmer. I don't have the same enthusiasm for him as I did when Corbyn arrived - but he seems like the most logical person to move Labour on from here.
Like I said, Labour under him won't be Blairite - but they probably won't get my vote if they're just bland boring centrist stuff, they won't need it. I won't care frankly.
But do come back to me in a few years.
Heck I might even vote for them, if they drop the insane Marxism.
How can they elect Starmer while Momentum is around & the £ 3 vote?
I'm just saying I won't have the same enthusiasm for a Starmer Labour Party - but that doesn't make it the wrong choice, not at all.
I think I'm going to lose interest whatever happens, if I am honest.
I'm finding it difficult to see how Labour are anywhere near sub-206.
I solemnly predict that, if Boris wins next week, Labour will put this in their next manifesto. The LDs will go for total Rejoin.
I suspect it largely mirrors the way I've felt about the last few years worth of Tory government. We're technically on the same side; in the same big tent, but it's really not that aligned with what I truly believe and some of it requires huge mental gymnastics to internally defend, let alone externally justify.
But needs must when there's no realistic alternative. Still, I'm not even sure if I'll bothered getting active on polling day this time - which I always do. That's how disillusioned I am.
If, in the future there is a properly Libertarian Tory party, I shall be heavily involved and looking back on the May/Johnson years (and possibly that massive majority in 2019!) in much the same way that the hard left now view the man Blair.
The public would probably enjoy an Edwards v Gardiner bout.
It will be cruel on the Labour left if just as they are in a strong position to win a GE on their own terms they are usurped by the careerist centrists again.
However, if there is another hard-left leader after Corbyn then all bets are off and assets will be being moved offshore 6 months before the election.
This time around, there are going to be multiple left wingers and Starmer. He has a decent chance of winning on a split vote.
I kind of get the sense - despite all the bluster - that Momentum is not going to have as much of an impact on the next leader as everyone thinks.
So you have probably lost this one. You had a very very shit leader, who should not have been anywhere near power. Learn from it,
Remember: lots of Labour's policies are popular. As they should be. The world needs rebalancing. Old people have it too easy. The pendulum MUST swing.
Your time will come, and imagine how sweet the victory will be, after all this frustration.
And bowing out isn't giving up, I just have other things to move onto and I just don't have the energy to be interested in this again. I'll let stronger people than I get involved from here.
That's was exactly the reaction after Michael Foot's defeat with the claim that voters didn't understand the manifesto & Labour did not explain it clearly enough.
They could have been hard left in 1997 and still won but they were persuaded they needed to be Tory-lite by Blair. They shouldn't listen to centrists who will try and cheat them again just as they are on the cusp of winning.
I personally hope they listen by the way but they shouldn't.
I hate to say this but sometimes you really do need to play the game to win. Get a 2019 Alastair Campbell in. I'm not saying spin spin spin but do get somebody who understands how the media works and train the next leader a bit better.
Which is a shame because a centre left non Tory party really needs you.
I didn't vote in 97 because I was so relaxed about the picture he was painting.
Christ, he conned me (us). 😂
But I don't have the energy for it anymore, I'm only being honest and I find it exciting but also exhausting.
It’s Blair who should be a hero to liberals and the left.
I've literally said three times, if Labour needs to be centrist to win, then it can be centrist to win.
It's not my politics, it's not what I ideally want - but I am doing literally exactly what you said and accepting that reality and allowing it to happen.
But I don't have to be happy about it - and I don't have to get involved in it. But if it happens and the Tories are out, great, I will be pleased.
Ah, ye gods. Iraq! If that war hadn't happened, where would we be now? A much happier country, I think, and in so many ways. Ditto America.
Politics doesn't suit nor does it reward dilettantes.
Have a look at the comments and wonder at the hysterical overreactions from all sides to the minutiae of events that have now long been forgotten.
In fact, go back to the first few threads after the election was called and see how irrelevant the vast majority of it is.
My point being that if you treat politics like every event, statement, screw-up is seismic it will drive you nuts (see twitter).
The vast majority of the public give little to no heed to politics until the last couple of weeks of an election campaign...and in the meantime the political anoraks have burnt themselves out worrying if their leaders glasses being wonky might cost votes.
And in the end nothing REALLY changes that much anyway.
But it's not about what I want, it's what the country wants. If to get the Tories out, Labour needs to be centrist, then it can be centrist. Get the Tories out, I am happy with that.
But I won't be involved - because I just don't have the interest in such a project. I'm only being honest about that.
My feeling on it basically is that if I felt the country was really at stake again, then of course I'd come out to vote - but my feeling with a centrist Labour is they'll be almost guaranteed a 1997 style result, so I really won't need to get involved and that's fine with me.
I'm sorry if you don't like that view - but it is what I think. I actually don't think I'm doing what you accuse me of, i.e. being ideologically pure, I think I'm doing the opposite and letting others do the pragmatic thing. But it doesn't mean I have to be involved.
I accept in that case I've lost - and I'll move on with my life. I've enjoyed this short period of political engagement but if that's the end, that's the end. I'll move onto other things, got a career and so on to build.
I don't intend to leave here though, I'll still be around I'm sure.
If another Corbyn like figure comes along, I'm sure I'll be right back into it. But in the short term at least, I think that's unlikely.
But I'm happy enough with that for now, like I said, if the Tories are out, then great. That's really enough for me at the end of the day. Would I like more yes - but I'm also able to realise that some battles aren't winnable. Perhaps in the future but not for now. I accept that.
But for now, I'll remain hopeful of a Hung Parliament.
Brexit will be over for the wwc and they will be back in harness along with the millennials, Gen X and Gen Y who will all have had a few years to get even angrier about the disparities in inter-generational wealth.
The Tories will need to work really hard in the next parliament because the electoral crutch of Brexit will be gone.
I don't think it's bluster,unless Labour changes their voting system Momentum & the £3 vote which included many Tory voters completely negates against a moderate leader.
I'd be minded to back (from a betting perspective) a candidate who was from and represented somewhere North of Watford Gap
If it's somebody without any baggage, then I wonder what reasons will be cited for any such split? Economic policy perhaps - but that won't be a popular position with the membership.
Starmer is evidently the most logical choice to lead the party.
Most voters over 35 now own a property so Labour will be back to the under 35s this time as it was in 2015 now the dementia tax issue is no more
A labour leadership without such backstory, and Boris trying to deliver for his coalition of voters and not let them down. It’s easy to imagine how a similar Labour manifesto next time will get elected.
It used to be a big deal to have a leader without any ministerial experience,to combine that with no educational qualifications would be off the Richter scale..
I think Labour needs to find a new version of Tony Blair, someone who has an optimistic attitude towards success, doesn't believe in conspiracies, and isn't obsessed with uncovering grievances at every opportunity with which to make people feel envious of others. Someone whose default attitude is to see the best in other people including their opponents, instead of being miserable and defeatist. That would be my advice. Labour left-wingers will absolutely hate it I expect. Don't forget Tony Blair is the only Labour leader to have won a working majority at an election since 1966. Yvette Cooper is the best option I can see at the moment.
Cooper to have another bash? After losing in 2015 - she was utterly dreadful.
Burnham again?