politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka Umunna’s political journey: From 2015 favourite for the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka Umunna’s political journey: From 2015 favourite for the LAB leadership to trying to make a GE2019 gain for the LDs
Next LAB leader odds May 12th 2015
Comments
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Bev strikes again!1
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Tristram Hunt! I'd forgotten about him0
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Who the hell thought Tristram Hunt had a chance of becoming leader?0
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The best thing about him. I think he is in a museum now....wooliedyed said:Tristram Hunt! I'd forgotten about him
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I saw Tristram Hunt give an excellent lecture about the management of cities and genuinely thought he'd run for west midlands mayor.
His lecture made it very clear he was not in any sense a Labour politician, mind.0 -
Don't think he is going to make it. He needed the Lib Dem national campaign to catch fire and bring in those committed remainers. It really hasn't and they have gone backwards in the polls.
Another solid second for the Lib Dems, I think. Which at least means next time out there is something to build from.0 -
If any one of those politician had won in 2015 we would all be in a very different place not.
Cameron would still probably have been PM, or handed over to Osborne.0 -
Are any polls due today?0
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The single seat polls we have seen suggest that the LDs are holding up well in Remainia but have fallen sharply in LeaverstanDavidL said:Don't think he is going to make it. He needed the Lib Dem national campaign to catch fire and bring in those committed remainers. It really hasn't and they have gone backwards in the polls.
Another solid second for the Lib Dems, I think. Which at least means next time out there is something to build from.0 -
Is Umunna media savvy? Certainly journalists seems to like him.0
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Well but not well enough from the polls. Given the media coverage is about how poor the Lib Dems are doing will there be that much of a Labour squeeze going on?MikeSmithson said:
The single seat polls we have seen suggest that the LDs are holding up well in Remainia but have fallen sharply in LeaverstanDavidL said:Don't think he is going to make it. He needed the Lib Dem national campaign to catch fire and bring in those committed remainers. It really hasn't and they have gone backwards in the polls.
Another solid second for the Lib Dems, I think. Which at least means next time out there is something to build from.0 -
Interesting of the five top LAB politicians in the betting in May 2015 only two are defending seats for the party this time.0
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I would agree with that but if Chuka was behind on 25th November he is not likely to be ahead now.MikeSmithson said:
The single seat polls we have seen suggest that the LDs are holding up well in Remainia but have fallen sharply in LeaverstanDavidL said:Don't think he is going to make it. He needed the Lib Dem national campaign to catch fire and bring in those committed remainers. It really hasn't and they have gone backwards in the polls.
Another solid second for the Lib Dems, I think. Which at least means next time out there is something to build from.1 -
I hope Chuka wins. He's a talent.0
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Asking for a friend....MilesPartridge said:Are any polls due today?
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I met him once....he came across terribly, the worst kind of slippery insincere politician.LostPassword said:Is Umunna media savvy? Certainly journalists seems to like him.
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Does anyone use Smarkets? I`ve been picking up some nice odds there on constituencies, albeit small stakes only. Just got over 6/4 on Tories in West Bromwich East.0
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As an exhibit?Beibheirli_C said:
The best thing about him. I think he is in a museum now....wooliedyed said:Tristram Hunt! I'd forgotten about him
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One of the particularly disappointing aspects of remainers not accepting a democratic decision is how many of our limited pool of talent have thrown away their careers on this. I think Chuka has more to add than most of our MPs as of course did Rory Stewart and even Dominic Grieve and Letwin.kinabalu said:I hope Chuka wins. He's a talent.
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The emptiest of empty suits. Can’t wait to see him get stuffed.0
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2015, alias MMXV, ah...
Never such innocence,
Never before or since,
As changed itself to past
Without a word – the men
Leaving the gardens tidy,
The thousands of marriages,
Lasting a little while longer:
Never such innocence again.0 -
That bar chart is disturbingly honest for the LibDems1
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It's completely unfair but this did make me laugh
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/12026084410318356480 -
Mr. Sandpit, there are many things in politics worse than empty suits.
Umunna at least had the guts to walk away from the far left squatting on Labour's front bench, whilst the likes of Jess Phillips et al. proclaim they oppose Corbyn and are busy campaigning to make him PM.1 -
And both have little chance of being leader this time around. The party has sadly moved away from them.MikeSmithson said:Interesting of the five top LAB politicians in the betting in May 2015 only two are defending seats for the party this time.
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I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
Except that, the missing wheel is on a Toro Rosso.eek said:It's completely unfair but this did make me laugh
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/12026084410318356480 -
Betfair CON OM now 1.40 again after briefly drifting earlier this afternoon.0
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TheScreamingEagles said:As well as the number of people who say they support something, we can also ask them how strongly they feel it, and—here’s the clever bit—look at how quickly they respond. The faster they do, the more they believe it. Just as you can tell when you chat with a friend whether they are just mouthing an opinion as the right thing to say, or whether they are passionately fired up, we can, for example, look at the speed with which people answer a particular question to get a sense of how settled they are in their opinion and how eager they are to give it. Through such techniques, we’ve developed an Emotional Resonance Score (ERS), which combines both the breadth of support for a policy with the emotional intensity underpinning it.
Hmmm....Is there actual scientific backing to this presumption? It feels rather pop-science type stuff.
I would hazard a guess somebody being asked about Brexit for the 1000th time might be a bit bored of being asked about it yet again...that doesn't mean they won't vote because of it.
By their bloke down the pub logic, I would imagine everybody would light up if your mate talked about something other than Brexit or Liverpool being the dogs bollocks at the footy.0 -
In hindsight it may have been a better idea for Umunna to have stood in Kensington rather than Cities of London & Westminster.0
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Like I said, the shy Labour effectTOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
NaturallyRobD said:
Asking for a friend....MilesPartridge said:Are any polls due today?
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Why would you have to be shy about clicking a button on a computer? Wasn’t the shy Tory effect most pronounced for phone interviews?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Like I said, the shy Labour effectTOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
Because he made coherent sense?BannedinnParis said:I saw Tristram Hunt give an excellent lecture about the management of cities and genuinely thought he'd run for west midlands mayor.
His lecture made it very clear he was not in any sense a Labour politician, mind.
I'm not a fan but I did enjoy his book on the Civil War.0 -
As I said it's completely unfair (Boris is changing the front left, the Toro Rosso lost the front right), but it did make me laugh.Sandpit said:
Except that, the missing wheel is on a Toro Rosso.eek said:It's completely unfair but this did make me laugh
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/12026084410318356481 -
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
He wasn't offering everyone everything for free?KentRising said:
Because he made coherent sense?BannedinnParis said:I saw Tristram Hunt give an excellent lecture about the management of cities and genuinely thought he'd run for west midlands mayor.
His lecture made it very clear he was not in any sense a Labour politician, mind.
I'm not a fan but I did enjoy his book on the Civil War.0 -
Chuka's team have certainly been trying very hard in Cities of London and Westminster, carpet-bombing innocent residents with dodgy bar-charts and fake newspapers. Amusingly Labour are also running bar-charts, based on the 2017 results, to make out that only Labour can beat the Tories here.
This is undoubtedly a good constituency for Chuka to try for, and I'm pretty sure that the LibDem blitz will take him past Labour. However, I think it will only take him into a respectable second place, not a win, not least because the Tory candidate seems sensible and is well-established locally (she's the leader of Westminster council).
I think it will be a great pity if Chuka does fail here; for all his mistakes, he's a sensible and articulate figure with more talent than most MPs, and the LibDems need all the talent they can get. I also think he deserves great credit, whether you agree with him or not, for calling out Corbyn and for putting his own career on the line. But more likely heroic failure than shock success.0 -
None of the Tory leaflets I've seen this week mention Brexit - it's vote Tory for a majority Government to get things done.ExiledInScotland said:
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
Yep - the only place he was likely to be able to parachute into and win was Sheffield Hallam but even then I'm not sure a Londoner would work there.Richard_Nabavi said:Chuka's team have certainly been trying very hard in Cities of London and Westminster, carpet-bombing innocent residents with dodgy bar-charts and fake newspapers. Amusingly Labour are also running bar-charts, based on the 2017 results, to make out that only Labour can beat the Tories here.
This is undoubtedly a good constituency for Chuka to try for, and I'm pretty sure that the LibDem blitz will take him past Labour. However, I think it will only take him into a respectable second place, not a win, not least because the Tory candidate seems sensible and is well-established locally (she's the leader of Westminster council).
I think it will be a great pity if Chuka does fail here; for all his mistakes, he's a sensible and articulate figure with more talent than most MPs, and the LibDems need all the talent they can get. I also think he deserves great credit, whether you agree with him or not, for calling out Corbyn and for putting his own career on the line. But more likely heroic failure than shock success.0 -
One wonders whether people self factcheck Lab's giveaways. When even the Graun expresses doubts as to the deliverability of some of the "free" stuff perhaps we have a voting public more sensible than I thought.ExiledInScotland said:
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
And meeek said:It's completely unfair but this did make me laugh
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/12026084410318356480 -
Another leaflet from Philip Davies today. Came in the mail. Probably posted in Cheshire, where he lives.0
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For those betting on a Tory win in Bishop Auckland this is getting a bit of traction
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18080320.row-breaks-bishop-auckland-candidates-hospital-e-campaign/
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You are like the railway geeks who complain that War of the Worlds is unrealistic because it showed a GWR train in Southern territory.Sandpit said:
Except that, the missing wheel is on a Toro Rosso.eek said:It's completely unfair but this did make me laugh
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/12026084410318356481 -
I'm sure they do, but they probably think that 'we won't get all that free stuff, but we might get some of it'.TOPPING said:One wonders whether people self factcheck Lab's giveaways. When even the Graun expresses doubts as to the deliverability of some of the "free" stuff perhaps we have a voting public more sensible than I thought.
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Look at it from the point of view of the would-be Labour voter. Their leader is an embarrassing, anti-Semite supporting, terrorist snuggling Marxist grandpa, whose greatest achievement to date is avoiding losing bladder control in public. They have a whole raft of former party grandees telling them they can't, for shame, vote Labour this time round. Their manifesto reads like a love letter to Hugo Chavez and their activists are an army of Jew-hating nutjobs.RobD said:
Why would you have to be shy about clicking a button on a computer? Wasn’t the shy Tory effect most pronounced for phone interviews?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Like I said, the shy Labour effectTOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".
Clearly, someone still intending to vote Labour has something seriously wrong with them. But that doesn't mean they won't be embarrassed to admit it.
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......and the pubsByronic said:2015, alias MMXV, ah...
Never such innocence,
Never before or since,
As changed itself to past
Without a word – the men
Leaving the gardens tidy,
The thousands of marriages,
Lasting a little while longer:
Never such innocence again.
Wide open all day;
And the countryside not caring....
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I think the Gen Snowflake metropolitans are simply more gullible than the working classes.TOPPING said:
One wonders whether people self factcheck Lab's giveaways. When even the Graun expresses doubts as to the deliverability of some of the "free" stuff perhaps we have a voting public more sensible than I thought.ExiledInScotland said:
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".1 -
Anti Tory voting seems a mess in London. Labour and the Lib Dems will both poll 25%+ in seats where the Tories win.1
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Perhaps the most important question in domestic politics right now - Will the Tories govern from the Reactionary Right or from the One Nation Centre?
OJ thinks the former - as per this excellently written piece:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/the-tories-do-have-policies-they-just-dont-want-you-to-know-what-they-are
I will perhaps surprise people by saying that my hunch is to disagree. IMO we will get a Soft Brexit FTA (Transition extended first) and the "Boris" government will be relatively innocuous.
The worst thing about it is that we will get used to having a risible clown as our PM and our standards will thus have been lowered.0 -
The weirdest things can cut through. I was quite surprised how anti the free broadband the hosts of lefty leaning Corbynista fanboy youth show the Last Leg were. The idea of the state having access to your internet didn't go down well, compared to say owning the trains.TOPPING said:
One wonders whether people self factcheck Lab's giveaways. When even the Graun expresses doubts as to the deliverability of some of the "free" stuff perhaps we have a voting public more sensible than I thought.ExiledInScotland said:
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
With Esther McVey presumably.SandyRentool said:Another leaflet from Philip Davies today. Came in the mail. Probably posted in Cheshire, where he lives.
Suppose one of them had to be away from their constituency, although I suppose Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper managed adjoining constituencies as did the Wintertons.0 -
This is something we've discussed before and that was shown to be Chaos With Ed Miliband's problem in 2015. Voters agreed with Labour about the problems but feared the solutions could not be delivered. The 2019 something-for-everyone offering is almost calculated to elicit the same scepticism from the electorate.TOPPING said:
One wonders whether people self factcheck Lab's giveaways. When even the Graun expresses doubts as to the deliverability of some of the "free" stuff perhaps we have a voting public more sensible than I thought.ExiledInScotland said:
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.0
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I actually think a lot of Miliband's issue was that Osborne had lay a lot of the ground work for that. He was very effective at setting up a lot of the doubt way before the GE.DecrepiterJohnL said:
This is something we've discussed before and that was shown to be Chaos With Ed Miliband's problem in 2015. Voters agreed with Labour about the problems but feared the solutions could not be delivered. The 2019 something-for-everyone offering is almost calculated to elicit the same scepticism from the electorate.TOPPING said:
One wonders whether people self factcheck Lab's giveaways. When even the Graun expresses doubts as to the deliverability of some of the "free" stuff perhaps we have a voting public more sensible than I thought.ExiledInScotland said:
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
I have no problem with Mr Davies living in Cheshire. However I do have a problem with him making out that he is fussed about the folk of Airedale.PaulM said:
With Esther McVey presumably.SandyRentool said:Another leaflet from Philip Davies today. Came in the mail. Probably posted in Cheshire, where he lives.
Suppose one of them had to be away from their constituency, although I suppose Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper managed adjoining constituencies as did the Wintertons.
He should have stood down and let the Tories select a candidate who wants to live here.0 -
Chukka is a wally.0
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Fascinating article that attempts to explain how it all started — it being the "conspiracist left".
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/12/05/after-seattle-how-the-left-lost-its-way/2 -
A most grievous crime.SandyRentool said:
You are like the railway geeks who complain that War of the Worlds is unrealistic because it showed a GWR train in Southern territory.Sandpit said:
Except that, the missing wheel is on a Toro Rosso.eek said:It's completely unfair but this did make me laugh
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/12026084410318356480 -
Like the WASPI stuff. Mind you I did enjoy this line in the New Statesman’s take down of it: “ Theresa May, who was born in 1956, will do well out of Labour’s proposals. Severely disabled pensioners on low incomes may gain nothing at all.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".
0 -
Thanks Mike.Artist said:Anti Tory voting seems a mess in London. Labour and the Lib Dems will both poll 25%+ in seats where the Tories win.
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He should have stood in Streatham doing the honourable thing.eek said:
Yep - the only place he was likely to be able to parachute into and win was Sheffield Hallam but even then I'm not sure a Londoner would work there.Richard_Nabavi said:Chuka's team have certainly been trying very hard in Cities of London and Westminster, carpet-bombing innocent residents with dodgy bar-charts and fake newspapers. Amusingly Labour are also running bar-charts, based on the 2017 results, to make out that only Labour can beat the Tories here.
This is undoubtedly a good constituency for Chuka to try for, and I'm pretty sure that the LibDem blitz will take him past Labour. However, I think it will only take him into a respectable second place, not a win, not least because the Tory candidate seems sensible and is well-established locally (she's the leader of Westminster council).
I think it will be a great pity if Chuka does fail here; for all his mistakes, he's a sensible and articulate figure with more talent than most MPs, and the LibDems need all the talent they can get. I also think he deserves great credit, whether you agree with him or not, for calling out Corbyn and for putting his own career on the line. But more likely heroic failure than shock success.1 -
eek said:
For those betting on a Tory win in Bishop Auckland this is getting a bit of traction
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18080320.row-breaks-bishop-auckland-candidates-hospital-e-campaign/
Majority or hung parliament I think Bishop Auckland is long gone as a Labour hold
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More polls...must have more polls....
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Re Chuka does anyone think labour supporters will back him0
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What democratic decision? Are you talking about an advisory referendum which was hijacked by the Russians? which the Conservative leadership refuses to investigate and publish, because the"will of the people" is the only basis they have for destroying our current political settlement, and imposing chaos and the law of the jungle?DavidL said:
One of the particularly disappointing aspects of remainers not accepting a democratic decision is how many of our limited pool of talent have thrown away their careers on this. I think Chuka has more to add than most of our MPs as of course did Rory Stewart and even Dominic Grieve and Letwin.kinabalu said:I hope Chuka wins. He's a talent.
And you come here and shed crocodile tears... I thouht you were better than that, Mr DavidL.0 -
I shared this piece earlier today to deafening silence. Hopefully someone might read it this time.kinabalu said:Perhaps the most important question in domestic politics right now - Will the Tories govern from the Reactionary Right or from the One Nation Centre?
OJ thinks the former - as per this excellently written piece:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/the-tories-do-have-policies-they-just-dont-want-you-to-know-what-they-are
I will perhaps surprise people by saying that my hunch is to disagree. We will get a Soft Brexit FTA (Transition extended first) and the "Boris" government will be relatively innocuous. The worst thing about it will be that we will get used to having a risible clown as our PM and our standards will thus have been lowered.
I differ from you in thinking that we will likely get Thatcherism on steroids, for a few reasons. (1) they keep referring to themselves as "one nation" which is a clear sign they don't expect that impression to take hold as a result of their actions; (2) most genuinely "one nation" Tories have been purged while arch-Thatcherites have been promoted; (3) the donor class who promoted Johnson and hard Brexit all the way through May's tenure and are also active in dark money Thatcherite think tanks want a return on their investment; (4) Johnson himself has no philosophy but is instinctively neoliberal on economic issues and his advisors eg Cummings share that view; (5) every Tory leader from Major on has come to power by offering a more anti-EU platform than their predecessor, and so the idea that Johnson will pivot to BINO is for the birds - he'd face immediate challenge from the right of the party - and once you accept dis-alignment from the EU and the loss of market access then you have to embrace economic shock therapy to prevent capital flight.2 -
I have just had a thought. How are you going to manage if we get a hung parliament and another election. You are a nervous wreck alreadyFrancisUrquhart said:More polls...must have more polls....
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Well pelosi has announced they are proceeding so it ought to be 1.02 as the democrats will pass it. However he will easily win the senate trial and the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time.Peter_the_Punter said:I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.
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There's something deeply obnoxious about Umunna. He's as slippery as an eel coated in teflon.
Uggghhhmunna.1 -
At least since he did the 'chicken run' he isn't eligible for the 'parachute payment' many thousands of pounds that defeated MPs normally get. As the 'funny tinge' Tigger was horrified to find out.Xtrain said:
He should have stood in Streatham doing the honourable thing.eek said:
Yep - the only place he was likely to be able to parachute into and win was Sheffield Hallam but even then I'm not sure a Londoner would work there.Richard_Nabavi said:Chuka's team have certainly been trying very hard in Cities of London and Westminster, carpet-bombing innocent residents with dodgy bar-charts and fake newspapers. Amusingly Labour are also running bar-charts, based on the 2017 results, to make out that only Labour can beat the Tories here.
This is undoubtedly a good constituency for Chuka to try for, and I'm pretty sure that the LibDem blitz will take him past Labour. However, I think it will only take him into a respectable second place, not a win, not least because the Tory candidate seems sensible and is well-established locally (she's the leader of Westminster council).
I think it will be a great pity if Chuka does fail here; for all his mistakes, he's a sensible and articulate figure with more talent than most MPs, and the LibDems need all the talent they can get. I also think he deserves great credit, whether you agree with him or not, for calling out Corbyn and for putting his own career on the line. But more likely heroic failure than shock success.0 -
Three years ago this week, the politician campaigning for revoke was saying this... and it wasn't because he thought we should revoke!DavidL said:
One of the particularly disappointing aspects of remainers not accepting a democratic decision is how many of our limited pool of talent have thrown away their careers on this. I think Chuka has more to add than most of our MPs as of course did Rory Stewart and even Dominic Grieve and Letwin.kinabalu said:I hope Chuka wins. He's a talent.
"Chuka Umunna today urged Remain campaigners to abandon calls for a second referendum or risk being seen as a metropolitan elite “who think they know best”.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, the influential Labour backbencher urged fellow pro-EU campaigners to show more respect for the 17 million who voted for Brexit
“Remain didn’t lose by a landslide but was clearly defeated at the ballot box on June 23,” he said.
“I think it’s really important we listen and more deeply understand why people took a different view to us.”
He added: “The 52 per cent are no more a bunch of racists and bigots than the 48 per cent are a well-heeled metropolitan elite. I have no time for either characterisation.”
“I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” he said.
“Those calls reinforce what I feel is a false stereotype — of a bunch of people in London who think they know best.”
He went on: “We are going to leave — it hurts me to say that — but we have got to move forward and work out how to get the best possible deal.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-remain-campaigners-must-drop-calls-for-new-brexit-vote-a3410601.html2 -
Yes their non-endorsement of Lab should be more significant although at circulation 35,000 I can see why it hasn't gained prominence.Cyclefree said:
Like the WASPI stuff. Mind you I did enjoy this line in the New Statesman’s take down of it: “ Theresa May, who was born in 1956, will do well out of Labour’s proposals. Severely disabled pensioners on low incomes may gain nothing at all.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have just had a thought. How are you going to manage if we get a hung parliament and another election. You are a nervous wreck alreadyFrancisUrquhart said:More polls...must have more polls....
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@FrancisUrquhart just how many of these gifs do you have?
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I wonder if there is the Democrats are hoping for some tax revelations that can be brought into the open.. Otherwise as it's a complete waste of time when the Republicans will just veto it.wooliedyed said:
Well pelosi has announced they are proceeding so it ought to be 1.02 as the democrats will pass it. However he will easily win the senate trial and the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time.Peter_the_Punter said:I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.
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Plenty more...RobD said:@FrancisUrquhart just how many of these gifs do you have?
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Not necessarily.wooliedyed said:
Well pelosi has announced they are proceeding so it ought to be 1.02 as the democrats will pass it. However he will easily win the senate trial and the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time.Peter_the_Punter said:I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.
It was never going to get through on a partisan basis but the evidence has now been presented and is now out there in the court of public opinion.0 -
Speaking of slimy Chucka - on an entirely unrelated tangent - how long do we expect Swinson to last as LD leader after the election?-1
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The irony is that her pathetic performance at this election means there will be fewer MPs who could succeed her afterwards.felix said:Speaking of slimy Chucka - on an entirely unrelated tangent - how long do we expect Swinson to last as LD leader after the election?
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He made a mistake standing in this constituency IMO. Kensington, Wokingham or Putney would have been better shots.Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Chuka does anyone think labour supporters will back him
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While I realise there won't be another election for while, I do wonder what will happen to a Tory Government when the public realises that Brexit isn't actually done on 31st January, and EU rules will still apply. Further, there will be major rows over various things between then and mid-summer, when the basis will have to be agreed.eek said:
None of the Tory leaflets I've seen this week mention Brexit - it's vote Tory for a majority Government to get things done.ExiledInScotland said:
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".
I realise Boris has the chutzpah to ignore any problems but he won't be able to do so if something goes seriously and publicly wrong...... inability, perhaps, to get a terrorist back.
So far as I'm aware, so far in life he's always been able to get away with whatever by relying on his friends to stump up the money, sweeping whatever it is under the carpet or just walking away and forgetting about it. However, those methods are going to run out one day.
As they did with Cameron.0 -
Is there anyone suitable to replace her?felix said:Speaking of slimy Chucka - on an entirely unrelated tangent - how long do we expect Swinson to last as LD leader after the election?
I suspect the answer to that question means that if Jo retains her seat (not a certainty) she remains leader.0 -
How could have stood in Swindon...He went there once....for an hour.Andy_JS said:
He made a mistake standing in this constituency IMO. Kensington, Wokingham or Putney would have been better shots.Big_G_NorthWales said:Re Chuka does anyone think labour supporters will back him
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Theyve rushed it of they are after tax stuff though. Once the Republicans vote this down in trial that's it, they wont have support to try againeek said:
I wonder if there is the Democrats are hoping for some tax revelations that can be brought into the open.. Otherwise as it's a complete waste of time when the Republicans will just veto it.wooliedyed said:
Well pelosi has announced they are proceeding so it ought to be 1.02 as the democrats will pass it. However he will easily win the senate trial and the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time.Peter_the_Punter said:I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.
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I actually think it will be the opposite - in the near future Turkey is going to send us a plane full of ISIS fighters with British passports. Were it not for the election I suspect it would have been this week,OldKingCole said:
While I realise there won't be another election for while, I do wonder what will happen to a Tory Government when the public realises that Brexit isn't actually done on 31st January, and EU rules will still apply. Further, there will be major rows over various things between then and mid-summer, when the basis will have to be agreed.eek said:
None of the Tory leaflets I've seen this week mention Brexit - it's vote Tory for a majority Government to get things done.ExiledInScotland said:
The Tories will have focus grouped their message. They have stayed on it and it hasn't become a joke like "Strong and Stable" did. I think that is an indicator that they will do better than 2017, also helped by the patent nonsense of the Corbyn giveaways.TOPPING said:
I have been thinking this for some time.TheScreamingEagles said:
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".
I realise Boris has the chutzpah to ignore any problems but he won't be able to do so if something goes seriously and publicly wrong...... inability, perhaps, to get a terrorist back.
So far as I'm aware, so far in life he's always been able to get away with whatever by relying on his friends to stump up the money, sweeping whatever it is under the carpet or just walking away and forgetting about it. However, those methods are going to run out one day.
As they did with Cameron.0 -
And from the republucans POV they can say the Democrats wasted 4 years on nothing rather than the things that matter in the States. It will just further polarize matters. And, as per Mueller, there is no real 'evidence' of anything, just hearsay, second hand opinion and Adam Schiffs made up transcript. Its thin gruel.Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily.wooliedyed said:
Well pelosi has announced they are proceeding so it ought to be 1.02 as the democrats will pass it. However he will easily win the senate trial and the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time.Peter_the_Punter said:I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.
It was never going to get through on a partisan basis but the evidence has now been presented and is now out there in the court of public opinion.1 -
OJ, who was I think 13 when Blair became PM, has never lived as an adult under anything other than a centrist regime, would never as a matter of a priori ideology think that a Tory government could be good, would do well to reflect that a Labour party led from the centre would win this election at a canter, and that the extremists in this campaign are his socialist friends.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I shared this piece earlier today to deafening silence. Hopefully someone might read it this time.kinabalu said:Perhaps the most important question in domestic politics right now - Will the Tories govern from the Reactionary Right or from the One Nation Centre?
OJ thinks the former - as per this excellently written piece:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/the-tories-do-have-policies-they-just-dont-want-you-to-know-what-they-are
I will perhaps surprise people by saying that my hunch is to disagree. We will get a Soft Brexit FTA (Transition extended first) and the "Boris" government will be relatively innocuous. The worst thing about it will be that we will get used to having a risible clown as our PM and our standards will thus have been lowered.
I differ from you in thinking that we will likely get Thatcherism on steroids, for a few reasons. (1) they keep referring to themselves as "one nation" which is a clear sign they don't expect that impression to take hold as a result of their actions; (2) most genuinely "one nation" Tories have been purged while arch-Thatcherites have been promoted; (3) the donor class who promoted Johnson and hard Brexit all the way through May's tenure and are also active in dark money Thatcherite think tanks want a return on their investment; (4) Johnson himself has no philosophy but is instinctively neoliberal on economic issues and his advisors eg Cummings share that view; (5) every Tory leader from Major on has come to power by offering a more anti-EU platform than their predecessor, and so the idea that Johnson will pivot to BINO is for the birds - he'd face immediate challenge from the right of the party - and once you accept dis-alignment from the EU and the loss of market access then you have to embrace economic shock therapy to prevent capital flight.
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It depends how she does is the most obvious answer. The trouble is the Euros and the locals flattered to deceive and set up some unrealistic expectations for the general. If she can equal the headcount at the dissolution, and is able to show a menu of good second places from the results next Thursday, she should at least be able to work out her probation as a new leader.felix said:Speaking of slimy Chucka - on an entirely unrelated tangent - how long do we expect Swinson to last as LD leader after the election?
She seems to irritate many people, but although I have never voted LibDem, I like her.1 -
Seems a little harsh. Half of our MPs have a fairly token presence in their constituencies. Tony Blair's links to Sedgefield never seemed desperately strong, for example.SandyRentool said:
I have no problem with Mr Davies living in Cheshire. However I do have a problem with him making out that he is fussed about the folk of Airedale.PaulM said:
With Esther McVey presumably.SandyRentool said:Another leaflet from Philip Davies today. Came in the mail. Probably posted in Cheshire, where he lives.
Suppose one of them had to be away from their constituency, although I suppose Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper managed adjoining constituencies as did the Wintertons.
He should have stood down and let the Tories select a candidate who wants to live here.
In looking into this issue I've Googled Philip Davies and Esther McVey. I'd say the former is batting well above his average.1 -
They had no choice. If you are not going to bring impeachment proceedings for manifest bribery and corruption, you are not doing your job as the opposition. The fact Republicans will vote solidly against it is neither here nor there.eek said:
I wonder if there is the Democrats are hoping for some tax revelations that can be brought into the open.. Otherwise as it's a complete waste of time when the Republicans will just veto it.wooliedyed said:
Well pelosi has announced they are proceeding so it ought to be 1.02 as the democrats will pass it. However he will easily win the senate trial and the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time.Peter_the_Punter said:I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.
The very least the Democrats get out of this is that any future President from their Party will be virtually immune from impeachment. The bar will have been set unfeasibly high.0 -
The Democrats did that?wooliedyed said:
And from the republucans POV they can say the Democrats wasted 4 years on nothing rather than the things that matter in the States. It will just further polarize matters. And, as per Mueller, there is no real 'evidence' of anything, just hearsay, second hand opinion and Adam Schiffs made up transcript. Its thin gruel.Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily.wooliedyed said:
Well pelosi has announced they are proceeding so it ought to be 1.02 as the democrats will pass it. However he will easily win the senate trial and the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time.Peter_the_Punter said:I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.
It was never going to get through on a partisan basis but the evidence has now been presented and is now out there in the court of public opinion.
For the first two years the GOP had a majority in the House, Senate, Supreme Court and held the Presidency.
For the last two years the GOP have held the Presidency and a majority in the Senate and Supreme Court while the Democrats have a majority in the House.
If the last four years have been wasted then surely the GOP are responsible for that?0 -
Just doing a quick bit of reading on the idea of using Reaction Times to illicit levels of interest in a subject.
Lets just say the science is far from conclusive and prone to a huge amount of other factors that can easily be confounded with interest e.g Sequential effects, the more you answer the questions, the faster you get.0 -
The democrats have to answer to their own voters as to what they have achieved, the US system is not like ours, it's not a question simply of who has a majority in either housePhilip_Thompson said:
The Democrats did that?wooliedyed said:
And from the republucans POV they can say the Democrats wasted 4 years on nothing rather than the things that matter in the States. It will just further polarize matters. And, as per Mueller, there is no real 'evidence' of anything, just hearsay, second hand opinion and Adam Schiffs made up transcript. Its thin gruel.Philip_Thompson said:
Not necessarily.wooliedyed said:
Well pelosi has announced they are proceeding so it ought to be 1.02 as the democrats will pass it. However he will easily win the senate trial and the whole thing will have been a giant waste of time.Peter_the_Punter said:I see the Trump Impeachment market has taken a sharp turn in favour 'Yes' - now trading at 1.08. Maybe Macron and his mates who were laughing at him yesterday knew something we didn't.
It was never going to get through on a partisan basis but the evidence has now been presented and is now out there in the court of public opinion.
For the first two years the GOP had a majority in the House, Senate, Supreme Court and held the Presidency.
For the last two years the GOP have held the Presidency and a majority in the Senate and Supreme Court while the Democrats have a majority in the House.
If the last four years have been wasted then surely the GOP are responsible for that?
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Stupid clueless betting question... I'm trying to understanding betting odds on the Betfair exchange.
If there is an amount of £1402 under 1.41 in the leftmost Lay column (with 1.40 in the rightmost Back column), is this £1402 caused by backers saying they will back the event happening but only at odds of 1.41 (rather than the 1.40 available)?
If so, if someone were to lay £1403 at 1.41, then the 1.41 would move into the rightmost back column and 1.42 would move to the left?0
