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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chuka Umunna’s political journey: From 2015 favourite for the LAB leadership to trying to make a GE2019 gain for the LDs
Next LAB leader odds May 12th 2015
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His lecture made it very clear he was not in any sense a Labour politician, mind.
Another solid second for the Lib Dems, I think. Which at least means next time out there is something to build from.
Cameron would still probably have been PM, or handed over to Osborne.
Never such innocence,
Never before or since,
As changed itself to past
Without a word – the men
Leaving the gardens tidy,
The thousands of marriages,
Lasting a little while longer:
Never such innocence again.
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1202608441031835648
Umunna at least had the guts to walk away from the far left squatting on Labour's front bench, whilst the likes of Jess Phillips et al. proclaim they oppose Corbyn and are busy campaigning to make him PM.
We on here might know that Get Brexit Done is designed to appeal to those who want out of the EU, and/or who don't want a further three months spent on a trade deal negotiation and then a second EU referendum six months after that.
All many people hear is "Conservatives banging on about Brexit while Lab is promising us free stuff".
Hmmm....Is there actual scientific backing to this presumption? It feels rather pop-science type stuff.
I would hazard a guess somebody being asked about Brexit for the 1000th time might be a bit bored of being asked about it yet again...that doesn't mean they won't vote because of it.
By their bloke down the pub logic, I would imagine everybody would light up if your mate talked about something other than Brexit or Liverpool being the dogs bollocks at the footy.
I'm not a fan but I did enjoy his book on the Civil War.
This is undoubtedly a good constituency for Chuka to try for, and I'm pretty sure that the LibDem blitz will take him past Labour. However, I think it will only take him into a respectable second place, not a win, not least because the Tory candidate seems sensible and is well-established locally (she's the leader of Westminster council).
I think it will be a great pity if Chuka does fail here; for all his mistakes, he's a sensible and articulate figure with more talent than most MPs, and the LibDems need all the talent they can get. I also think he deserves great credit, whether you agree with him or not, for calling out Corbyn and for putting his own career on the line. But more likely heroic failure than shock success.
https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/18080320.row-breaks-bishop-auckland-candidates-hospital-e-campaign/
Clearly, someone still intending to vote Labour has something seriously wrong with them. But that doesn't mean they won't be embarrassed to admit it.
Wide open all day;
And the countryside not caring....
OJ thinks the former - as per this excellently written piece:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/05/the-tories-do-have-policies-they-just-dont-want-you-to-know-what-they-are
I will perhaps surprise people by saying that my hunch is to disagree. IMO we will get a Soft Brexit FTA (Transition extended first) and the "Boris" government will be relatively innocuous.
The worst thing about it is that we will get used to having a risible clown as our PM and our standards will thus have been lowered.
Suppose one of them had to be away from their constituency, although I suppose Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper managed adjoining constituencies as did the Wintertons.
He should have stood down and let the Tories select a candidate who wants to live here.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/12/05/after-seattle-how-the-left-lost-its-way/
Majority or hung parliament I think Bishop Auckland is long gone as a Labour hold
And you come here and shed crocodile tears... I thouht you were better than that, Mr DavidL.
I differ from you in thinking that we will likely get Thatcherism on steroids, for a few reasons. (1) they keep referring to themselves as "one nation" which is a clear sign they don't expect that impression to take hold as a result of their actions; (2) most genuinely "one nation" Tories have been purged while arch-Thatcherites have been promoted; (3) the donor class who promoted Johnson and hard Brexit all the way through May's tenure and are also active in dark money Thatcherite think tanks want a return on their investment; (4) Johnson himself has no philosophy but is instinctively neoliberal on economic issues and his advisors eg Cummings share that view; (5) every Tory leader from Major on has come to power by offering a more anti-EU platform than their predecessor, and so the idea that Johnson will pivot to BINO is for the birds - he'd face immediate challenge from the right of the party - and once you accept dis-alignment from the EU and the loss of market access then you have to embrace economic shock therapy to prevent capital flight.
Uggghhhmunna.
"Chuka Umunna today urged Remain campaigners to abandon calls for a second referendum or risk being seen as a metropolitan elite “who think they know best”.
In an interview with the Evening Standard, the influential Labour backbencher urged fellow pro-EU campaigners to show more respect for the 17 million who voted for Brexit
“Remain didn’t lose by a landslide but was clearly defeated at the ballot box on June 23,” he said.
“I think it’s really important we listen and more deeply understand why people took a different view to us.”
He added: “The 52 per cent are no more a bunch of racists and bigots than the 48 per cent are a well-heeled metropolitan elite. I have no time for either characterisation.”
“I really have no time for calls for a second referendum because I think it comes across as disrespectful to those who voted to leave,” he said.
“Those calls reinforce what I feel is a false stereotype — of a bunch of people in London who think they know best.”
He went on: “We are going to leave — it hurts me to say that — but we have got to move forward and work out how to get the best possible deal.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chuka-umunna-remain-campaigners-must-drop-calls-for-new-brexit-vote-a3410601.html
It was never going to get through on a partisan basis but the evidence has now been presented and is now out there in the court of public opinion.
I realise Boris has the chutzpah to ignore any problems but he won't be able to do so if something goes seriously and publicly wrong...... inability, perhaps, to get a terrorist back.
So far as I'm aware, so far in life he's always been able to get away with whatever by relying on his friends to stump up the money, sweeping whatever it is under the carpet or just walking away and forgetting about it. However, those methods are going to run out one day.
As they did with Cameron.
I suspect the answer to that question means that if Jo retains her seat (not a certainty) she remains leader.
She seems to irritate many people, but although I have never voted LibDem, I like her.
In looking into this issue I've Googled Philip Davies and Esther McVey. I'd say the former is batting well above his average.
The very least the Democrats get out of this is that any future President from their Party will be virtually immune from impeachment. The bar will have been set unfeasibly high.
For the first two years the GOP had a majority in the House, Senate, Supreme Court and held the Presidency.
For the last two years the GOP have held the Presidency and a majority in the Senate and Supreme Court while the Democrats have a majority in the House.
If the last four years have been wasted then surely the GOP are responsible for that?
Lets just say the science is far from conclusive and prone to a huge amount of other factors that can easily be confounded with interest e.g Sequential effects, the more you answer the questions, the faster you get.
If there is an amount of £1402 under 1.41 in the leftmost Lay column (with 1.40 in the rightmost Back column), is this £1402 caused by backers saying they will back the event happening but only at odds of 1.41 (rather than the 1.40 available)?
If so, if someone were to lay £1403 at 1.41, then the 1.41 would move into the rightmost back column and 1.42 would move to the left?