politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting group that looks set to give Johnson his majority –
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I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
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Surely Tory Minority exists unless something or someone else gets a majority or can create a majority. I would want to read the terms of the bet very clearly.Philip_Thompson said:
Bigger landing strip for that to occur.Stocky said:
Arguably, an even better bet would be to look at the "Next Government" market with Betfair. You can get 16.5 on Tory Minority and 8.6 on Labour Minority.Sandpit said:
Well Betfair will give you 3.25 on NOM. Fill yer boots.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.136297311
Goodness knows why it is thought that a Lab minority is more likely than a Tory minority.
Tory minority can only really exist with DUP and/or Lib Dem abstentions.
Lab minority can exist with SNP+PC+Green support and Lib Dem support and/or abstentions.
The bell curve of seat distributions probably has any exact seat combo more likely within Tory minority but collectively Lab minority is much more likely than Tory minority.
For another election to occur Parliament must be sworn in and enough things done to the point that a vote for a new election occurs. That requires a Government to be in place even if there is no-one with command of the house.
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Reading East is definitely one of those seats where the student surge made the difference. The Tories have a solid base of around 35-40% in Caversham and Woodley but Lab should win if student turnout is similar to last time. Reading uni breaks up on the 13th so Lab should be fine.Stocky said:
I`m still picking up the relative arbitrage, but hitting bookie limits now (ridiculously small).MarqueeMark said:
In two years? Nah.....IanB2 said:
Swings like that are often demographically driven and likely to continueMarqueeMark said:
The 2017 9.9% swing to Labour was huge. Scope for that to unwind just as decisively?Stocky said:Reading East: Take a look at oddschecker. Can get Evens Labour with Ladbrokes and 15/8 Tories with Betfair Sportsbook.
I`m already big on Lab in that constituency at 15/8 and 2/1 so won`t bet more, but there is considerable disparity of pricing here.
Anyone have any insight?
I think fair chance of a Tory gain.
Overall, in Reading East I`m £5 up if Tories win and £130 up if Lab win.
If LibDems win I`m in trouble with the wife.0 -
If the exit poll shows Con on 322 or over, I'll be up till the dawnpeter_from_putney said:Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
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I would love to be "up for Bolsover"peter_from_putney said:Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
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I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seatsBarnesian said:
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
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Or a gargantuan Tory majority that would make Baldwin blush.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It declared at 4.17am in 2017. Old people tend to wake up early so he'll be fine.Philip_Thompson said:
I would love to be "up for Bolsover"peter_from_putney said:Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
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Would hopefully be a gargantuan wake up call for Labour.RobD said:
Or a gargantuan Tory majority that would make Baldwin blush.TheScreamingEagles said:
It would be a delicious irony if Jeremy Corbyn is responsible for calling time on the career of MPs like Skinner.0 -
Yes, he probably is racist. Also a misogynist. In fact for me that is what comes over clearer than just about anything else. As an aside I'll be seeing his stupid massive noisy 'copter later. It passes my place when it leaves Regents Park. I'll give it the finger on behalf of all.alb1on said:I suspect he is a racist at heart. It is difficult to grow up in a family where the father was arrested at a KKK rally and was a Mafia associate (and the Mafia are very racist) without it rubbing off.
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This is really bad for Labour. A lot of their increase in the polls is coming from London.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/12018204306691440651 -
London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.Brom said:
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seatsBarnesian said:
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
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Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
When people equate age and experience I look to pointless bedblockers such as him. Genuinely valueless.peter_from_putney said:Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
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I just don’t understand this mindset. Yesterday we had a breakdown that 45% or remainers will vote Labour and 70% or leavers will vote Tory. In somewhere like Bolsover which voted 70% for leave that give the Tories a basis of around 49% and Labour 15%. I understand this is not a direct translation in every seat but even if all the remainers in that seat go Labour and none Tory then that only gets them to 30%.CorrectHorseBattery said:Do not forget that the majority of Labour voters, even in Leave seats, voted to Remain. And Labour is gaining them back + Labour Leavers (albeit not enough yet). They are up above 50% of Labour Leavers and it is still going up.
I think a lot of minds will be checked over the next week.
The problem is not the Labour leavers in Labour seats, it is the coalescence of support around the Tory of all other leave voters.0 -
The liberals won't be winning many seats in london on those figures.wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
Yes, it's unusual a poll where Labour go up is bad news for them but it adds to the feeling they're stacking up votes where they don't need them. Putney, Chipping Barnet, Hendon and possibly Chingford, Harrow East or Cities could be in play but they might gain 3 or 4 seats here at the expense of 40 or 50 north of the Watford Gap.nunu2 said:This is really bad for Labour. A lot of their increase in the polls is coming from London.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/12018204306691440651 -
If Labour Is piling up votes in London then that surely increases the chances of a Tory landslidenunu2 said:This is really bad for Labour. A lot of their increase in the polls is coming from London.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/12018204306691440652 -
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?Barnesian said:
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.Brom said:
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seatsBarnesian said:
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
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2.2% swing to the Tories in London.wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November
4.65 Con -> LD swing too.
Implies Richmond Park goes to the Lib Dems; Kensington to the Tories.
Battersea on a knife edge.0 -
Londoners want free stuff....wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
Yes. That is what I said.kjohnw1 said:
If Labour Is piling up votes in London then that surely increases the chances of a Tory landslidenunu2 said:This is really bad for Labour. A lot of their increase in the polls is coming from London.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/12018204306691440650 -
The real election winner for either of the main parties would be the promise of a massive reboot of council house building. This is probably the only thing that would re-energise the left behind. Sadly both major parties are in hock to the big housebuilders so it isn’t going to happen.0
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Surprised to read that they managed 55% in London in 2017.Pulpstar said:
2.2% swing to the Tories in London.wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November
4.65 Con -> LD swing too.
Implies Richmond Park goes to the Lib Dems; Kensington to the Tories.
Battersea on a knife edge.0 -
I wonder if that saving is based on them working 5 days a week or 4RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*0 -
Hi Barnesian,Barnesian said:
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I was looking at your LD predictions the other night but it was too late to post.
Unfortunately I think you are on the wrong track vs. the Yougov MRP. You seems to be sticking to UNS quite strongly and perhaps not accounting for Brexit/Remain enough. The evidence I would put forward for this is:
1) The constituency polls tie in quite well with the Yougov MRP. If the LDs are consistently getting greater than average swings in Remain seats in London and the SE then they must be getting lower swings or going backwards elsewhere. The Yougov MRP had the LDs going backwards in North Devon, for example
2) If you look at the Conservative volunteer website, the seats that the Cons seem to be focusing on defending vs. the LDs are St Albans, South Cambs, Finchley, Richmond Pk, Lewes and Totnes which all voted remain. They are also heavily targeting leave voting Carshalton, which presumably on your model is out of sight.
Best Wishes
Gareth0 -
Another way to look at London is that it is very remain. Indicates Labour is picking up with remainers more so than leavers now.0
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Actually Labour are down 8% in London since GE2017.
So this poll is in line with the national polls.1 -
Labour are up 8% in London but Torys still have a 9% lead nationally. So where is the tory lead coming from.....the north and Midlands is the answer.0
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GarethoftheVale2 said:
Reading East is definitely one of those seats where the student surge made the difference. The Tories have a solid base of around 35-40% in Caversham and Woodley but Lab should win if student turnout is similar to last time. Reading uni breaks up on the 13th so Lab should be fine.Stocky said:
I`m still picking up the relative arbitrage, but hitting bookie limits now (ridiculously small).MarqueeMark said:
In two years? Nah.....IanB2 said:
Swings like that are often demographically driven and likely to continueMarqueeMark said:
The 2017 9.9% swing to Labour was huge. Scope for that to unwind just as decisively?Stocky said:Reading East: Take a look at oddschecker. Can get Evens Labour with Ladbrokes and 15/8 Tories with Betfair Sportsbook.
I`m already big on Lab in that constituency at 15/8 and 2/1 so won`t bet more, but there is considerable disparity of pricing here.
Anyone have any insight?
I think fair chance of a Tory gain.
Overall, in Reading East I`m £5 up if Tories win and £130 up if Lab win.
If LibDems win I`m in trouble with the wife.
It may be instructive to have a list of when universities break up to inform on likelihood of numbers going Labour
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Compare and contrast the 49 years of him vs Clarke in parliament. Has the ridiculous old twat ever raised his constituency or served in any post in that time or is it just a series of crap jibes at black rod? He's a disgrace to public service.matt said:Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
When people equate age and experience I look to pointless bedblockers such as him. Genuinely valueless.peter_from_putney said:Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
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Londoners know Johnson's record in London. Non-Londoners should view this as a negative job reference from a previous employer. You have been warned...FrancisUrquhart said:
Londoners want free stuff....wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
It's a 4.5% swing from Tory to Liberal compared to GE2017.Slackbladder said:
The liberals won't be winning many seats in london on those figures.wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
Time for some more letters from OGH?Slackbladder said:
The liberals won't be winning many seats in london on those figures.wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
The You Gov London poll shows exactly the same lead as the same one done before the last election in 2017.
They lead then by 17 points and on Election Day they increased that to 21 points .0 -
He removed a tax break if that's what you mean. There's no god given right to tax breaks - private schools please note.Philip_Thompson said:Gordon Brown destroyed many pension funds and he wasn't anywhere near as dangerous as the Marxists in charge of Labour now.
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Jeremy Corbyn FINALLY says sorry for anti-Semitism in the Labour Party but insists he has 'dealt with it'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7750669/Jeremy-Corbyn-FINALLY-says-sorry-Labour-anti-Semitism-insists-dealt-it.html0 -
Eagles riding the last UNS bus out of townTheScreamingEagles said:Actually Labour are down 8% in London since GE2017.
So this poll is in line with the national polls.0 -
I think they’ve gained more in London over the last month than in the country.TheScreamingEagles said:Actually Labour are down 8% in London since GE2017.
So this poll is in line with the national polls.0 -
There are a LOT of people who feel that Skinner is one of the very few MPs who they can genuinely identify with, by contrast with the vaguely amicable middle-class blur which most MPs (including me when I was there) fade into.wooliedyed said:
Compare and contrast the 49 years of him vs Clarke in parliament. Has the ridiculous old twat ever raised his constituency or served in any post in that time or is it just a series of crap jibes at black rod? He's a disgrace to public service.1 -
It may be instructive to have a list of when universities break up to inform on likelihood of numbers going Labour
Anecdotal alert - not just dependent on when the Uni breaks up. At Bath its on the 13th, but many students will be gone earlier if they have little or no teaching on the wed, thur or Friday, as confirmed by my third year tutees.
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So you're saying that the private profits are a fee we pay because we aren't grown-up enough to make rational collective choices. A rather depressing conclusion.NorthernPowerhouse said:
It's exactly stuff like this which should make you ultra wary of nationalisation. They're not even in power and any pretense that these industries wont be just the play thing of political masters is thrown out the window. If you sacrifice revenue in this way you have to take it from elsewhere. After the announcements and the political applause the interest will move elsewhere and the railways would have lost a chunk of income.TheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/12013816541803520000 -
Applying an incredibly loose mathematical principle, national yougov polling has seen Lab climb 2 points since November 5th yet in London they have climbed 4 times as much (8 points) over the same period, suggesting any improvement in other parts of the country could be far more modest.0
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I agree with you Eek. Tory Minority is a sort of "default" position because, as incumbents, they get first dibs on running a minority government. They don`t need any support. Been round the houses on this before on PB.com. I may be wrong, but I`m sticking with my view that 16.5 on a Tory Minority is overpriced.eek said:
Surely Tory Minority exists unless something or someone else gets a majority or can create a majority. I would want to read the terms of the bet very clearly.Philip_Thompson said:
Bigger landing strip for that to occur.Stocky said:
Arguably, an even better bet would be to look at the "Next Government" market with Betfair. You can get 16.5 on Tory Minority and 8.6 on Labour Minority.Sandpit said:
Well Betfair will give you 3.25 on NOM. Fill yer boots.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.136297311
Goodness knows why it is thought that a Lab minority is more likely than a Tory minority.
Tory minority can only really exist with DUP and/or Lib Dem abstentions.
Lab minority can exist with SNP+PC+Green support and Lib Dem support and/or abstentions.
The bell curve of seat distributions probably has any exact seat combo more likely within Tory minority but collectively Lab minority is much more likely than Tory minority.
For another election to occur Parliament must be sworn in and enough things done to the point that a vote for a new election occurs. That requires a Government to be in place even if there is no-one with command of the house.0 -
In 2017 Labour squeezed the Lib Dem vote on Election Day . The Lib Dems underperformed their final poll by around 2 points , The Greens are unlikely to hold onto that 4 % and are also likely to be squeezed by Labour .0
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There is a reason pensions had a tax break and removing them and increasing taxes has consequences in the real world - Labour please note.kinabalu said:
He removed a tax break if that's what you mean. There's no god given right to tax breaks - private schools please note.Philip_Thompson said:Gordon Brown destroyed many pension funds and he wasn't anywhere near as dangerous as the Marxists in charge of Labour now.
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If people think this is bad, some people have never been to Northern working men's clubs....I am not sure telling the audience they are a load of thick far right supporters is the best idea.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-7748277/Chaos-Lords-Taverners-Christmas-charity-lunch-comedian-Nish-Kumar-booed-off.html1 -
This respresents a swing from Labour to Johnson's Tories from the last election. Non-Londoners should view this as a positive job reference from a previous employer.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Londoners know Johnson's record in London. Non-Londoners should view this as a negative job reference from a previous employer. You have been warned...FrancisUrquhart said:
Londoners want free stuff....wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
What about the millions in the SE who work in London and will vote Tory?OnlyLivingBoy said:
Londoners know Johnson's record in London. Non-Londoners should view this as a negative job reference from a previous employer. You have been warned...FrancisUrquhart said:
Londoners want free stuff....wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
Why all the delight on here about an 88 year old man being defeated? I can't remember Skinner telling a blatant lie in parliament which is a low bar in this recent government.0
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Seats, plural ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dem targets in London, majority, swing needed
Target 1: Richmond Park 45 0.04%
Target 2: Bermondsey and Old Southwark 12,972 11.08%
Target 3: Sutton and Cheam 12,698 12.22%0 -
Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.0 -
We need to see the inner/outer London splits from this poll.Pulpstar said:
Seats, plural ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dem targets in London, majority, swing needed
Target 1: Richmond Park 45 0.04%
Target 2: Bermondsey and Old Southwark 12,972 11.08%
Target 3: Sutton and Cheam 12,698 12.22%0 -
Joining the conversation late. I hadn't realised that Jeremy Corbyn's father was arrested at a KKK rally. Bloody hell when was that?kinabalu said:
Yes, he probably is racist. Also a misogynist. In fact for me that is what comes over clearer than just about anything else. As an aside I'll be seeing his stupid massive noisy 'copter later. It passes my place when it leaves Regents Park. I'll give it the finger on behalf of all.alb1on said:I suspect he is a racist at heart. It is difficult to grow up in a family where the father was arrested at a KKK rally and was a Mafia associate (and the Mafia are very racist) without it rubbing off.
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The massive contribution holidays companies took in the 90's damaged pension funds.0
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And a lot of people who find him a useless waste of space who has no interest in anything but faux class warfare and being a rude old git. The video Corbyn used of him anti the Boris deal was just one of an insane, demented old duffer who will say anything he is told to if he can keep his cushy job and that bit of green bench now shaped to his flabby old arse without having to do any work for it.NickPalmer said:
There are a LOT of people who feel that Skinner is one of the very few MPs who they can genuinely identify with, by contrast with the vaguely amicable middle-class blur which most MPs (including me when I was there) fade into.wooliedyed said:
Compare and contrast the 49 years of him vs Clarke in parliament. Has the ridiculous old twat ever raised his constituency or served in any post in that time or is it just a series of crap jibes at black rod? He's a disgrace to public service.
But, you know, horses for courses, hes a typical labour MP. Pretend you're for the workers then ignore them and play games in the quest for socialist purity. The working class dont like traitors and labour is overflowing with them.
I used to dislike labour for turning their back on the working class, now I want them exterminated for it.0 -
Yep, said this the other day. Pile up votes in urban areas, lose Northern marginals. Result is Tory majority.kjohnw1 said:
If Labour Is piling up votes in London then that surely increases the chances of a Tory landslidenunu2 said:This is really bad for Labour. A lot of their increase in the polls is coming from London.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/12018204306691440650 -
The national polls show the Tories unchanged from 2017?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Well I agree with that, but if this is proof that the a Tories are going to privatise the NHS , then under that definition Labour have already done it. I think generally those Tories who want to inject a huge amount of private sector into NHS are on the fringes. I think In general the Tories recognise it would be mad to do this.OnlyLivingBoy said:
They did a bit, the Tories have done a whole lot more. Personally I am not averse to a degree of private involvement as long as it delivers genuine efficiencies and doesn't just shaft low paid workers or cut corners on care. I think people like Raab want to go a whole lot further than that and it is absolutely right for Labour to point that out.Nemtynakht said:
So labour privatised the NHS?OnlyLivingBoy said:
Sorry, you are wrong. Wikipedia says:ozymandias said:OnlyLivingBoy said:
.ozymandias said:OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
Privatization (or privatisation in British English) can mean different things including moving something from the public sector into the private sector. ... Government functions and services may also be privatized (which may also be known as "franchising" or "out-sourcing"); in this case, private entities are tasked with the implementation of government programs or performance of government services that had previously been the purview of state-run agencies.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/moment-of-honesty-is-required-new-labour-began-dismantling-of-our-nhs/0 -
A rather logical and sensible conclusion.LostPassword said:
So you're saying that the private profits are a fee we pay because we aren't grown-up enough to make rational collective choices. A rather depressing conclusion.NorthernPowerhouse said:
It's exactly stuff like this which should make you ultra wary of nationalisation. They're not even in power and any pretense that these industries wont be just the play thing of political masters is thrown out the window. If you sacrifice revenue in this way you have to take it from elsewhere. After the announcements and the political applause the interest will move elsewhere and the railways would have lost a chunk of income.TheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
There is nothing depressing about profits, profits represent the fee for smart, grown-up specialist management of an area yes but if the smart, grown-up specialist management is worthwhile then is that not a fee worth paying?
Collectivism doesn't work. History and reality show that as does logic. Lets say the railways are brought under collective control, bear in mind a tiny minority of people actually use them, at any subsequent budget or election which will get first dibs on investment - the railways or the NHS? We all know the answer.
The NHS works because we make it a national priority, it overrides everything else. If you try to make everything your priority then nothing is.
There is one graph that shows very clearly why nationalisation fails and privatisation works for the railways. Real people's real choices:
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YesPhilip_Thompson said:
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?Barnesian said:
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.Brom said:
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seatsBarnesian said:
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
0 -
Why? Bearing in mind the overwhelming majority of voters are not political obsessives and don't check political tactical voting sites, why would it be efficient and widespread?Barnesian said:
YesPhilip_Thompson said:
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?Barnesian said:
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.Brom said:
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seatsBarnesian said:
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
0 -
Suggesting perhaps even going down in a few parts of the countryBrom said:Applying an incredibly loose mathematical principle, national yougov polling has seen Lab climb 2 points since November 5th yet in London they have climbed 4 times as much (8 points) over the same period, suggesting any improvement in other parts of the country could be far more modest.
0 -
Landslide. Labour are going backwards fast outside southern remainia. They wont make 30% on polling dayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yep, said this the other day. Pile up votes in urban areas, lose Northern marginals. Result is Tory majority.kjohnw1 said:
If Labour Is piling up votes in London then that surely increases the chances of a Tory landslidenunu2 said:This is really bad for Labour. A lot of their increase in the polls is coming from London.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/12018204306691440650 -
Ooh the Debbonaire effect in action. It would be even more interesting if Labour are still losing a few close marginals in Londonwooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
I think this is right. Labour will do well down South but lose the election (and big) in the North and the Midlands. It is a Brexit election and their Leave voters will sink them. That said, I don't think there was much they could have done about this. If they had positioned themselves as more Leave to defend that flank they risked being smashed by the LDs elsewhere. Could have been a meltdown. This way, they protect their position as the main opposition party to the Tories. With the framing and timing of this GE being nigh on perfect for the Tories, it was always about damage limitation for Labour. If they can limit the Con majority to less than 50 that will be a decent effort.Brom said:Yes, it's unusual a poll where Labour go up is bad news for them but it adds to the feeling they're stacking up votes where they don't need them. Putney, Chipping Barnet, Hendon and possibly Chingford, Harrow East or Cities could be in play but they might gain 3 or 4 seats here at the expense of 40 or 50 north of the Watford Gap.
0 -
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
I go to see stand-up quite often and you can tell now that people just don't want to hear Brexit gag after Breixt gag, especially not the predictable Leavers are Gammon stuff.
Mark Watson had it right earlier this year when he basically said people come to see stand-up for a laugh and get away from real life, so I won't be doing Brexit gags as nobody wants me banging on about that for an hour and half.1 -
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How does that compare with GE 2017??wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
In non-target LD seats, the LDs will be almost invisible leaving it clear for Labour to squeeze the LD vote. Most LDs are remainers and prefer a short term Corbyn government introducing a second referendum than Johnson pushing through the WDA and leaving the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
Why? Bearing in mind the overwhelming majority of voters are not political obsessives and don't check political tactical voting sites, why would it be efficient and widespread?Barnesian said:
YesPhilip_Thompson said:
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?Barnesian said:
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.Brom said:
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seatsBarnesian said:
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
0 -
https://twitter.com/MatthewGreen02/status/1201824372719308800bigjohnowls said:
How does that compare with GE 2017??wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November0 -
London, goodbye to Emma Dent Coad and Zac Goldsmith?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-has-begun-general-election-fightback-in-london-new-poll-reveals-a4302986.html0 -
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.0 -
I think a 15 to 45-50 or so tory majority would be a very bad result for Labour. Puts Johnson once again at the mercy of the ERG, rather than able to compromise on Europe. Less than that, and the sheer instability of events may return us to much of where we before.kinabalu said:
I think this is right. Labour will do well down South but lose the election (and big) in the North and the Midlands. It is a Brexit election and their Leave voters will sink them. That said, I don't think there was much they could have done about this. If they had positioned themselves as more Leave to defend that flank they risked being smashed by the LDs elsewhere. Could have been a meltdown. This way, they protect their position as the main opposition party to the Tories. With the framing and timing of this GE being nigh on perfect for the Tories, it was always about damage limitation for Labour. If they can limit the Con majority to less than 50 that will be a decent effort.Brom said:Yes, it's unusual a poll where Labour go up is bad news for them but it adds to the feeling they're stacking up votes where they don't need them. Putney, Chipping Barnet, Hendon and possibly Chingford, Harrow East or Cities could be in play but they might gain 3 or 4 seats here at the expense of 40 or 50 north of the Watford Gap.
More than that, and he's free and clear to do what he wants.0 -
GE 2017 London.bigjohnowls said:
How does that compare with GE 2017??wooliedyed said:London Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November
Lab 55,
Con 33,
LD 9.
Green 5
UKIP 60 -
They might hit 33% on polling day, but the question is how? By piling up votes in London and the south. Lolwooliedyed said:
Landslide. Labour are going backwards fast outside southern remainia. They wont make 30% on polling dayAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Yep, said this the other day. Pile up votes in urban areas, lose Northern marginals. Result is Tory majority.kjohnw1 said:
If Labour Is piling up votes in London then that surely increases the chances of a Tory landslidenunu2 said:This is really bad for Labour. A lot of their increase in the polls is coming from London.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/12018204306691440650 -
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.1 -
I would love the Tories to take Battersea but I just can't see it. Kensington however I'd be very confident about, the working class remain vote will go Coad, the wealthy remain vote Gyimah and through the middle come the Tories.dr_spyn said:London, goodbye to Emma Dent Coad and Zac Goldsmith?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-has-begun-general-election-fightback-in-london-new-poll-reveals-a4302986.html0 -
That was a reasonable assumption a month ago when we assumed the LDs would be almost invisible in seats where Lab were looking to squeeze the LD vote. But that's not been the case as evidenced by the now-infamous Lib Dem letters sent by Mike Smithson to seats the Lib Dems should not be in the running in.Barnesian said:
In non-target LD seats, the LDs will be almost invisible leaving it clear for Labour to squeeze the LD vote. Most LDs are remainers and prefer a short term Corbyn government introducing a second referendum than Johnson pushing through the WDA and leaving the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
Why? Bearing in mind the overwhelming majority of voters are not political obsessives and don't check political tactical voting sites, why would it be efficient and widespread?Barnesian said:
YesPhilip_Thompson said:
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?Barnesian said:
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.Brom said:
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seatsBarnesian said:
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.nico67 said:A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
Take for example my former seat of Warrington South that has been much commented on. The Lib Dems have not been invisible there and have even sent the Smithson letter there.0 -
Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.0
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Comedian in question was in my class at school (same school as PB twitter faves Emily Benn and Aaron Bell). He was not amusing back then but has always been political and has carved out a career where his audience go for the politics rather than the laughs. Unfunny old world.FrancisUrquhart said:
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.0 -
London isnunu2 said:
The national polls show the Tories unchanged from 2017?TheScreamingEagles said:
Lab -7.5%
Con -3.1%
LD +6.2%
Compared to GE 2017
0 -
Gov'ts tend to pay attention to where the marginals are. If there's a modal shift in those, then well..CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
0 -
Oh dear - looks like Labour Leavers are sick of being treated with contempt by Labour, and prefer to vote for a party that will actually respect their democratic choice. What a shame.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
p.s. There are 8 full days of campaigning left.0 -
It shows Labour lead in outer london of only 7% over the tories.dr_spyn said:London, goodbye to Emma Dent Coad and Zac Goldsmith?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-has-begun-general-election-fightback-in-london-new-poll-reveals-a4302986.html
Tories will be happy with that0 -
Lol. Wrong website?CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
0 -
The level of stand-up comedy at the moment is very poor. I would say only Ross Noble is the only one who I have really really belly laughed through in the past couple of years.Brom said:
Comedian in question was in my class at school (same school as PB twitter faves Emily Benn and Aaron Bell). He was not amusing back then but has always been political and has carved out a career where his audience go for the politics rather than the laughs. Unfunny old world.FrancisUrquhart said:
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
There is a lot of very tame bland nonsense like Romesh Ranganathan and predictable ranty but unfunny Kumar. Even Mark Thomas, who despite totally disagreeing with politically, used to be very funny with his tales of protests / campaigns isn't very interesting these days.0 -
We'll never know about that huge 5 point swing to Labour that happens on Friday after Johnson becomes PM.BluerBlue said:
Oh dear - looks like Labour Leavers are sick of being treated with contempt by Labour, and prefer to vote for a party that will actually respect their democratic choice. What a shame.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
p.s. There are 8 full days of campaigning left.0 -
There's enough Tory campaigning on here, why shouldn't there be from all sides ?maaarsh said:
Lol. Wrong website?CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
0 -
Goodwin says London poll is why LDs are likely to gain seats from Con and Lab in London
YG MRP not showing any LD Gains from Lab in London0 -
Stewart Lee's still pretty good - and he actually manages to pitch his character so it works whichever way you voted, unlike most of his north London contemporariesFrancisUrquhart said:
The level of stand-up comedy at the moment is very poor. I would say only Ross Noble is the only one who I have really really belly laughed through in the past couple of years.Brom said:
Comedian in question was in my class at school (same school as PB twitter faves Emily Benn and Aaron Bell). He was not amusing back then but has always been political and has carved out a career where his audience go for the politics rather than the laughs. Unfunny old world.FrancisUrquhart said:
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.0 -
Having the easiest at a 10,000+ majority tends to help in defensebigjohnowls said:Goodwin says London poll is why LDs are likely to gain seats from Con and Lab in London
YG MRP not showing any LD Gains from Lab in London
0 -
I know I lot of people love him, but I just never been able to really get into him. Nothing to do with his politics either, Mark Thomas 5-10 years ago was an absolute hoot* even if his politics make Jezza look centre right.maaarsh said:
Stewart Lee's still pretty good - and he actually manages to pitch his character so it works whichever way you voted, unlike most of his north London contemporariesFrancisUrquhart said:
The level of stand-up comedy at the moment is very poor. I would say only Ross Noble is the only one who I have really really belly laughed through in the past couple of years.Brom said:
Comedian in question was in my class at school (same school as PB twitter faves Emily Benn and Aaron Bell). He was not amusing back then but has always been political and has carved out a career where his audience go for the politics rather than the laughs. Unfunny old world.FrancisUrquhart said:
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.FrancisUrquhart said:
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
* His show on his dad's progressive supranuclear palsy /and love of opera was also incredible, both moving and funny.0 -
It’s a very young and ethnically diverse city too. That makes a big difference.Pulpstar said:Another way to look at London is that it is very remain. Indicates Labour is picking up with remainers more so than leavers now.
The South-West, cities and outer fringes are still quite white middle-class and older, so that’s where the Tories and Lib Dems have their best chances, but less so in north/north-east London.
Hendon/Finchley etc. are special cases for obvious reasons.0 -
Just completed a YouGov.
General VI question, constituency specific VI question, would I consider voting tactically in a two horse race, then an open ended question on my opinions on Corbyn, his policies and campaign. LOL.0 -
I'm just amused to watch the mask slip as we get nearer polling day. We seem to be well past the stage of trying to establish a serious position, to now posting this kind of rabid drivel - not leaving any gears to go to in the last week.WhisperingOracle said:
There's enough Tory campaigning on here, why shouldn't there be from all sides ?maaarsh said:
Lol. Wrong website?CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
1
