A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.
Arguably, an even better bet would be to look at the "Next Government" market with Betfair. You can get 16.5 on Tory Minority and 8.6 on Labour Minority. Goodness knows why it is thought that a Lab minority is more likely than a Tory minority.
Bigger landing strip for that to occur. Tory minority can only really exist with DUP and/or Lib Dem abstentions. Lab minority can exist with SNP+PC+Green support and Lib Dem support and/or abstentions. The bell curve of seat distributions probably has any exact seat combo more likely within Tory minority but collectively Lab minority is much more likely than Tory minority.
Surely Tory Minority exists unless something or someone else gets a majority or can create a majority. I would want to read the terms of the bet very clearly.
For another election to occur Parliament must be sworn in and enough things done to the point that a vote for a new election occurs. That requires a Government to be in place even if there is no-one with command of the house.
Reading East: Take a look at oddschecker. Can get Evens Labour with Ladbrokes and 15/8 Tories with Betfair Sportsbook. I`m already big on Lab in that constituency at 15/8 and 2/1 so won`t bet more, but there is considerable disparity of pricing here. Anyone have any insight?
The 2017 9.9% swing to Labour was huge. Scope for that to unwind just as decisively? I think fair chance of a Tory gain.
Swings like that are often demographically driven and likely to continue
In two years? Nah.....
I`m still picking up the relative arbitrage, but hitting bookie limits now (ridiculously small). Overall, in Reading East I`m £5 up if Tories win and £130 up if Lab win. If LibDems win I`m in trouble with the wife.
Reading East is definitely one of those seats where the student surge made the difference. The Tories have a solid base of around 35-40% in Caversham and Woodley but Lab should win if student turnout is similar to last time. Reading uni breaks up on the 13th so Lab should be fine.
Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
If the exit poll shows Con on 322 or over, I'll be up till the dawn
Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seats
Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
I would love to be "up for Bolsover"
It declared at 4.17am in 2017. Old people tend to wake up early so he'll be fine.
Or a gargantuan Tory majority that would make Baldwin blush.
Would hopefully be a gargantuan wake up call for Labour. It would be a delicious irony if Jeremy Corbyn is responsible for calling time on the career of MPs like Skinner.
I suspect he is a racist at heart. It is difficult to grow up in a family where the father was arrested at a KKK rally and was a Mafia associate (and the Mafia are very racist) without it rubbing off.
Yes, he probably is racist. Also a misogynist. In fact for me that is what comes over clearer than just about anything else. As an aside I'll be seeing his stupid massive noisy 'copter later. It passes my place when it leaves Regents Park. I'll give it the finger on behalf of all.
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seats
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.
Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?
Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
When people equate age and experience I look to pointless bedblockers such as him. Genuinely valueless.
Do not forget that the majority of Labour voters, even in Leave seats, voted to Remain. And Labour is gaining them back + Labour Leavers (albeit not enough yet). They are up above 50% of Labour Leavers and it is still going up. I think a lot of minds will be checked over the next week.
I just don’t understand this mindset. Yesterday we had a breakdown that 45% or remainers will vote Labour and 70% or leavers will vote Tory. In somewhere like Bolsover which voted 70% for leave that give the Tories a basis of around 49% and Labour 15%. I understand this is not a direct translation in every seat but even if all the remainers in that seat go Labour and none Tory then that only gets them to 30%.
The problem is not the Labour leavers in Labour seats, it is the coalescence of support around the Tory of all other leave voters.
Yes, it's unusual a poll where Labour go up is bad news for them but it adds to the feeling they're stacking up votes where they don't need them. Putney, Chipping Barnet, Hendon and possibly Chingford, Harrow East or Cities could be in play but they might gain 3 or 4 seats here at the expense of 40 or 50 north of the Watford Gap.
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seats
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?
The real election winner for either of the main parties would be the promise of a massive reboot of council house building. This is probably the only thing that would re-energise the left behind. Sadly both major parties are in hock to the big housebuilders so it isn’t going to happen.
This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across England
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*
I wonder if that saving is based on them working 5 days a week or 4
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
Hi Barnesian,
I was looking at your LD predictions the other night but it was too late to post.
Unfortunately I think you are on the wrong track vs. the Yougov MRP. You seems to be sticking to UNS quite strongly and perhaps not accounting for Brexit/Remain enough. The evidence I would put forward for this is:
1) The constituency polls tie in quite well with the Yougov MRP. If the LDs are consistently getting greater than average swings in Remain seats in London and the SE then they must be getting lower swings or going backwards elsewhere. The Yougov MRP had the LDs going backwards in North Devon, for example
2) If you look at the Conservative volunteer website, the seats that the Cons seem to be focusing on defending vs. the LDs are St Albans, South Cambs, Finchley, Richmond Pk, Lewes and Totnes which all voted remain. They are also heavily targeting leave voting Carshalton, which presumably on your model is out of sight.
Reading East: Take a look at oddschecker. Can get Evens Labour with Ladbrokes and 15/8 Tories with Betfair Sportsbook. I`m already big on Lab in that constituency at 15/8 and 2/1 so won`t bet more, but there is considerable disparity of pricing here. Anyone have any insight?
The 2017 9.9% swing to Labour was huge. Scope for that to unwind just as decisively? I think fair chance of a Tory gain.
Swings like that are often demographically driven and likely to continue
In two years? Nah.....
I`m still picking up the relative arbitrage, but hitting bookie limits now (ridiculously small). Overall, in Reading East I`m £5 up if Tories win and £130 up if Lab win. If LibDems win I`m in trouble with the wife.
Reading East is definitely one of those seats where the student surge made the difference. The Tories have a solid base of around 35-40% in Caversham and Woodley but Lab should win if student turnout is similar to last time. Reading uni breaks up on the 13th so Lab should be fine.
It may be instructive to have a list of when universities break up to inform on likelihood of numbers going Labour
Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?
Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.
When people equate age and experience I look to pointless bedblockers such as him. Genuinely valueless.
Compare and contrast the 49 years of him vs Clarke in parliament. Has the ridiculous old twat ever raised his constituency or served in any post in that time or is it just a series of crap jibes at black rod? He's a disgrace to public service.
Londoners know Johnson's record in London. Non-Londoners should view this as a negative job reference from a previous employer. You have been warned...
Compare and contrast the 49 years of him vs Clarke in parliament. Has the ridiculous old twat ever raised his constituency or served in any post in that time or is it just a series of crap jibes at black rod? He's a disgrace to public service.
There are a LOT of people who feel that Skinner is one of the very few MPs who they can genuinely identify with, by contrast with the vaguely amicable middle-class blur which most MPs (including me when I was there) fade into.
It may be instructive to have a list of when universities break up to inform on likelihood of numbers going Labour
Anecdotal alert - not just dependent on when the Uni breaks up. At Bath its on the 13th, but many students will be gone earlier if they have little or no teaching on the wed, thur or Friday, as confirmed by my third year tutees.
This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
It's exactly stuff like this which should make you ultra wary of nationalisation. They're not even in power and any pretense that these industries wont be just the play thing of political masters is thrown out the window. If you sacrifice revenue in this way you have to take it from elsewhere. After the announcements and the political applause the interest will move elsewhere and the railways would have lost a chunk of income.
So you're saying that the private profits are a fee we pay because we aren't grown-up enough to make rational collective choices. A rather depressing conclusion.
Applying an incredibly loose mathematical principle, national yougov polling has seen Lab climb 2 points since November 5th yet in London they have climbed 4 times as much (8 points) over the same period, suggesting any improvement in other parts of the country could be far more modest.
Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.
Arguably, an even better bet would be to look at the "Next Government" market with Betfair. You can get 16.5 on Tory Minority and 8.6 on Labour Minority. Goodness knows why it is thought that a Lab minority is more likely than a Tory minority.
Bigger landing strip for that to occur. Tory minority can only really exist with DUP and/or Lib Dem abstentions. Lab minority can exist with SNP+PC+Green support and Lib Dem support and/or abstentions. The bell curve of seat distributions probably has any exact seat combo more likely within Tory minority but collectively Lab minority is much more likely than Tory minority.
Surely Tory Minority exists unless something or someone else gets a majority or can create a majority. I would want to read the terms of the bet very clearly.
For another election to occur Parliament must be sworn in and enough things done to the point that a vote for a new election occurs. That requires a Government to be in place even if there is no-one with command of the house.
I agree with you Eek. Tory Minority is a sort of "default" position because, as incumbents, they get first dibs on running a minority government. They don`t need any support. Been round the houses on this before on PB.com. I may be wrong, but I`m sticking with my view that 16.5 on a Tory Minority is overpriced.
In 2017 Labour squeezed the Lib Dem vote on Election Day . The Lib Dems underperformed their final poll by around 2 points , The Greens are unlikely to hold onto that 4 % and are also likely to be squeezed by Labour .
If people think this is bad, some people have never been to Northern working men's clubs....I am not sure telling the audience they are a load of thick far right supporters is the best idea.
Londoners know Johnson's record in London. Non-Londoners should view this as a negative job reference from a previous employer. You have been warned...
This respresents a swing from Labour to Johnson's Tories from the last election. Non-Londoners should view this as a positive job reference from a previous employer.
Londoners know Johnson's record in London. Non-Londoners should view this as a negative job reference from a previous employer. You have been warned...
What about the millions in the SE who work in London and will vote Tory?
Why all the delight on here about an 88 year old man being defeated? I can't remember Skinner telling a blatant lie in parliament which is a low bar in this recent government.
I suspect he is a racist at heart. It is difficult to grow up in a family where the father was arrested at a KKK rally and was a Mafia associate (and the Mafia are very racist) without it rubbing off.
Yes, he probably is racist. Also a misogynist. In fact for me that is what comes over clearer than just about anything else. As an aside I'll be seeing his stupid massive noisy 'copter later. It passes my place when it leaves Regents Park. I'll give it the finger on behalf of all.
Joining the conversation late. I hadn't realised that Jeremy Corbyn's father was arrested at a KKK rally. Bloody hell when was that?
Compare and contrast the 49 years of him vs Clarke in parliament. Has the ridiculous old twat ever raised his constituency or served in any post in that time or is it just a series of crap jibes at black rod? He's a disgrace to public service.
There are a LOT of people who feel that Skinner is one of the very few MPs who they can genuinely identify with, by contrast with the vaguely amicable middle-class blur which most MPs (including me when I was there) fade into.
And a lot of people who find him a useless waste of space who has no interest in anything but faux class warfare and being a rude old git. The video Corbyn used of him anti the Boris deal was just one of an insane, demented old duffer who will say anything he is told to if he can keep his cushy job and that bit of green bench now shaped to his flabby old arse without having to do any work for it. But, you know, horses for courses, hes a typical labour MP. Pretend you're for the workers then ignore them and play games in the quest for socialist purity. The working class dont like traitors and labour is overflowing with them. I used to dislike labour for turning their back on the working class, now I want them exterminated for it.
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
That’s not privatisation.
Of course it is.
.
.
Sorry, you are wrong. Wikipedia says:
Privatization (or privatisation in British English) can mean different things including moving something from the public sector into the private sector. ... Government functions and services may also be privatized (which may also be known as "franchising" or "out-sourcing"); in this case, private entities are tasked with the implementation of government programs or performance of government services that had previously been the purview of state-run agencies.
They did a bit, the Tories have done a whole lot more. Personally I am not averse to a degree of private involvement as long as it delivers genuine efficiencies and doesn't just shaft low paid workers or cut corners on care. I think people like Raab want to go a whole lot further than that and it is absolutely right for Labour to point that out.
Well I agree with that, but if this is proof that the a Tories are going to privatise the NHS , then under that definition Labour have already done it. I think generally those Tories who want to inject a huge amount of private sector into NHS are on the fringes. I think In general the Tories recognise it would be mad to do this.
This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
It's exactly stuff like this which should make you ultra wary of nationalisation. They're not even in power and any pretense that these industries wont be just the play thing of political masters is thrown out the window. If you sacrifice revenue in this way you have to take it from elsewhere. After the announcements and the political applause the interest will move elsewhere and the railways would have lost a chunk of income.
So you're saying that the private profits are a fee we pay because we aren't grown-up enough to make rational collective choices. A rather depressing conclusion.
A rather logical and sensible conclusion. There is nothing depressing about profits, profits represent the fee for smart, grown-up specialist management of an area yes but if the smart, grown-up specialist management is worthwhile then is that not a fee worth paying? Collectivism doesn't work. History and reality show that as does logic. Lets say the railways are brought under collective control, bear in mind a tiny minority of people actually use them, at any subsequent budget or election which will get first dibs on investment - the railways or the NHS? We all know the answer. The NHS works because we make it a national priority, it overrides everything else. If you try to make everything your priority then nothing is. There is one graph that shows very clearly why nationalisation fails and privatisation works for the railways. Real people's real choices:
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seats
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?
Applying an incredibly loose mathematical principle, national yougov polling has seen Lab climb 2 points since November 5th yet in London they have climbed 4 times as much (8 points) over the same period, suggesting any improvement in other parts of the country could be far more modest.
Suggesting perhaps even going down in a few parts of the country
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seats
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?
Yes
Why? Bearing in mind the overwhelming majority of voters are not political obsessives and don't check political tactical voting sites, why would it be efficient and widespread?
Yes, it's unusual a poll where Labour go up is bad news for them but it adds to the feeling they're stacking up votes where they don't need them. Putney, Chipping Barnet, Hendon and possibly Chingford, Harrow East or Cities could be in play but they might gain 3 or 4 seats here at the expense of 40 or 50 north of the Watford Gap.
I think this is right. Labour will do well down South but lose the election (and big) in the North and the Midlands. It is a Brexit election and their Leave voters will sink them. That said, I don't think there was much they could have done about this. If they had positioned themselves as more Leave to defend that flank they risked being smashed by the LDs elsewhere. Could have been a meltdown. This way, they protect their position as the main opposition party to the Tories. With the framing and timing of this GE being nigh on perfect for the Tories, it was always about damage limitation for Labour. If they can limit the Con majority to less than 50 that will be a decent effort.
Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.
I go to see stand-up quite often and you can tell now that people just don't want to hear Brexit gag after Breixt gag, especially not the predictable Leavers are Gammon stuff.
Mark Watson had it right earlier this year when he basically said people come to see stand-up for a laugh and get away from real life, so I won't be doing Brexit gags as nobody wants me banging on about that for an hour and half.
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seats
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?
Yes
Why? Bearing in mind the overwhelming majority of voters are not political obsessives and don't check political tactical voting sites, why would it be efficient and widespread?
In non-target LD seats, the LDs will be almost invisible leaving it clear for Labour to squeeze the LD vote. Most LDs are remainers and prefer a short term Corbyn government introducing a second referendum than Johnson pushing through the WDA and leaving the EU.
Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.
Yes, it's unusual a poll where Labour go up is bad news for them but it adds to the feeling they're stacking up votes where they don't need them. Putney, Chipping Barnet, Hendon and possibly Chingford, Harrow East or Cities could be in play but they might gain 3 or 4 seats here at the expense of 40 or 50 north of the Watford Gap.
I think this is right. Labour will do well down South but lose the election (and big) in the North and the Midlands. It is a Brexit election and their Leave voters will sink them. That said, I don't think there was much they could have done about this. If they had positioned themselves as more Leave to defend that flank they risked being smashed by the LDs elsewhere. Could have been a meltdown. This way, they protect their position as the main opposition party to the Tories. With the framing and timing of this GE being nigh on perfect for the Tories, it was always about damage limitation for Labour. If they can limit the Con majority to less than 50 that will be a decent effort.
I think a 15 to 45-50 or so tory majority would be a very bad result for Labour. Puts Johnson once again at the mercy of the ERG, rather than able to compromise on Europe. Less than that, and the sheer instability of events may return us to much of where we before.
More than that, and he's free and clear to do what he wants.
Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.
I would love the Tories to take Battersea but I just can't see it. Kensington however I'd be very confident about, the working class remain vote will go Coad, the wealthy remain vote Gyimah and through the middle come the Tories.
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
I's prefer LDs on 11% as long as its 40% in our target seats and 5% in our many non-target seats. I wouldn't want 15% in our non-target seats at the expense of Labour, letting the Tories come through the middle of a split remain vote.
I don't know why you'd be worried. Your model has the Lib Dems on 26 seats
It assumes efficient and widespread tactical voting.
Do you still expect that given what's happened this campaign?
Yes
Why? Bearing in mind the overwhelming majority of voters are not political obsessives and don't check political tactical voting sites, why would it be efficient and widespread?
In non-target LD seats, the LDs will be almost invisible leaving it clear for Labour to squeeze the LD vote. Most LDs are remainers and prefer a short term Corbyn government introducing a second referendum than Johnson pushing through the WDA and leaving the EU.
That was a reasonable assumption a month ago when we assumed the LDs would be almost invisible in seats where Lab were looking to squeeze the LD vote. But that's not been the case as evidenced by the now-infamous Lib Dem letters sent by Mike Smithson to seats the Lib Dems should not be in the running in. Take for example my former seat of Warrington South that has been much commented on. The Lib Dems have not been invisible there and have even sent the Smithson letter there.
Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.
Comedian in question was in my class at school (same school as PB twitter faves Emily Benn and Aaron Bell). He was not amusing back then but has always been political and has carved out a career where his audience go for the politics rather than the laughs. Unfunny old world.
Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
Gov'ts tend to pay attention to where the marginals are. If there's a modal shift in those, then well..
Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
Oh dear - looks like Labour Leavers are sick of being treated with contempt by Labour, and prefer to vote for a party that will actually respect their democratic choice. What a shame.
Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.
Comedian in question was in my class at school (same school as PB twitter faves Emily Benn and Aaron Bell). He was not amusing back then but has always been political and has carved out a career where his audience go for the politics rather than the laughs. Unfunny old world.
The level of stand-up comedy at the moment is very poor. I would say only Ross Noble is the only one who I have really really belly laughed through in the past couple of years.
There is a lot of very tame bland nonsense like Romesh Ranganathan and predictable ranty but unfunny Kumar. Even Mark Thomas, who despite totally disagreeing with politically, used to be very funny with his tales of protests / campaigns isn't very interesting these days.
Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
Oh dear - looks like Labour Leavers are sick of being treated with contempt by Labour, and prefer to vote for a party that will actually respect their democratic choice. What a shame.
p.s. There are 8 full days of campaigning left.
We'll never know about that huge 5 point swing to Labour that happens on Friday after Johnson becomes PM.
Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
Lol. Wrong website?
There's enough Tory campaigning on here, why shouldn't there be from all sides ?
Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.
Comedian in question was in my class at school (same school as PB twitter faves Emily Benn and Aaron Bell). He was not amusing back then but has always been political and has carved out a career where his audience go for the politics rather than the laughs. Unfunny old world.
The level of stand-up comedy at the moment is very poor. I would say only Ross Noble is the only one who I have really really belly laughed through in the past couple of years.
Stewart Lee's still pretty good - and he actually manages to pitch his character so it works whichever way you voted, unlike most of his north London contemporaries
Mr. Urquhart, not a fan of throwing stuff at people on stage.
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
I think that happened after he went all big baby and starting saying he wasn't leaving, he was going full Bercow and wouldn't budge, and why didn't they book a right wing comedian.
Yes, Bernard Manning sounds more like the audience's cup of tea.
You are Nish Kumar and I claim my £5.
Comedian in question was in my class at school (same school as PB twitter faves Emily Benn and Aaron Bell). He was not amusing back then but has always been political and has carved out a career where his audience go for the politics rather than the laughs. Unfunny old world.
The level of stand-up comedy at the moment is very poor. I would say only Ross Noble is the only one who I have really really belly laughed through in the past couple of years.
Stewart Lee's still pretty good - and he actually manages to pitch his character so it works whichever way you voted, unlike most of his north London contemporaries
I know I lot of people love him, but I just never been able to really get into him. Nothing to do with his politics either, Mark Thomas 5-10 years ago was an absolute hoot* even if his politics make Jezza look centre right.
* His show on his dad's progressive supranuclear palsy /and love of opera was also incredible, both moving and funny.
Another way to look at London is that it is very remain. Indicates Labour is picking up with remainers more so than leavers now.
It’s a very young and ethnically diverse city too. That makes a big difference.
The South-West, cities and outer fringes are still quite white middle-class and older, so that’s where the Tories and Lib Dems have their best chances, but less so in north/north-east London.
Hendon/Finchley etc. are special cases for obvious reasons.
Just completed a YouGov. General VI question, constituency specific VI question, would I consider voting tactically in a two horse race, then an open ended question on my opinions on Corbyn, his policies and campaign. LOL.
Labour Leavers really have a call to make over the next 10 days. The Tories have screwed them over every single time they've been in power, do they want another five years of that? There are signs they're coming back - but they need to move and fast. We can still change things for the better and get this awful Government out.
Lol. Wrong website?
There's enough Tory campaigning on here, why shouldn't there be from all sides ?
I'm just amused to watch the mask slip as we get nearer polling day. We seem to be well past the stage of trying to establish a serious position, to now posting this kind of rabid drivel - not leaving any gears to go to in the last week.
Comments
For another election to occur Parliament must be sworn in and enough things done to the point that a vote for a new election occurs. That requires a Government to be in place even if there is no-one with command of the house.
It would be a delicious irony if Jeremy Corbyn is responsible for calling time on the career of MPs like Skinner.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1201820430669144065
LAB: 47% (+8)
CON: 30% (+1)
LIB: 15% (-4)
GRN: 4% (-1)
BRX: 3% (-3)
YouGov 28 Nov- 2 Dec
Changes w October/November
The problem is not the Labour leavers in Labour seats, it is the coalescence of support around the Tory of all other leave voters.
4.65 Con -> LD swing too.
Implies Richmond Park goes to the Lib Dems; Kensington to the Tories.
Battersea on a knife edge.
I was looking at your LD predictions the other night but it was too late to post.
Unfortunately I think you are on the wrong track vs. the Yougov MRP. You seems to be sticking to UNS quite strongly and perhaps not accounting for Brexit/Remain enough. The evidence I would put forward for this is:
1) The constituency polls tie in quite well with the Yougov MRP. If the LDs are consistently getting greater than average swings in Remain seats in London and the SE then they must be getting lower swings or going backwards elsewhere. The Yougov MRP had the LDs going backwards in North Devon, for example
2) If you look at the Conservative volunteer website, the seats that the Cons seem to be focusing on defending vs. the LDs are St Albans, South Cambs, Finchley, Richmond Pk, Lewes and Totnes which all voted remain. They are also heavily targeting leave voting Carshalton, which presumably on your model is out of sight.
Best Wishes
Gareth
So this poll is in line with the national polls.
It may be instructive to have a list of when universities break up to inform on likelihood of numbers going Labour
They lead then by 17 points and on Election Day they increased that to 21 points .
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7750669/Jeremy-Corbyn-FINALLY-says-sorry-Labour-anti-Semitism-insists-dealt-it.html
It may be instructive to have a list of when universities break up to inform on likelihood of numbers going Labour
Anecdotal alert - not just dependent on when the Uni breaks up. At Bath its on the 13th, but many students will be gone earlier if they have little or no teaching on the wed, thur or Friday, as confirmed by my third year tutees.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-7748277/Chaos-Lords-Taverners-Christmas-charity-lunch-comedian-Nish-Kumar-booed-off.html
Lib Dem targets in London, majority, swing needed
Target 1: Richmond Park 45 0.04%
Target 2: Bermondsey and Old Southwark 12,972 11.08%
Target 3: Sutton and Cheam 12,698 12.22%
Booing if a comedian isn't funny is a different kettle of fish.
But, you know, horses for courses, hes a typical labour MP. Pretend you're for the workers then ignore them and play games in the quest for socialist purity. The working class dont like traitors and labour is overflowing with them.
I used to dislike labour for turning their back on the working class, now I want them exterminated for it.
There is nothing depressing about profits, profits represent the fee for smart, grown-up specialist management of an area yes but if the smart, grown-up specialist management is worthwhile then is that not a fee worth paying?
Collectivism doesn't work. History and reality show that as does logic. Lets say the railways are brought under collective control, bear in mind a tiny minority of people actually use them, at any subsequent budget or election which will get first dibs on investment - the railways or the NHS? We all know the answer.
The NHS works because we make it a national priority, it overrides everything else. If you try to make everything your priority then nothing is.
There is one graph that shows very clearly why nationalisation fails and privatisation works for the railways. Real people's real choices:
I go to see stand-up quite often and you can tell now that people just don't want to hear Brexit gag after Breixt gag, especially not the predictable Leavers are Gammon stuff.
Mark Watson had it right earlier this year when he basically said people come to see stand-up for a laugh and get away from real life, so I won't be doing Brexit gags as nobody wants me banging on about that for an hour and half.
Diddums
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-has-begun-general-election-fightback-in-london-new-poll-reveals-a4302986.html
More than that, and he's free and clear to do what he wants.
Lab 55,
Con 33,
LD 9.
Green 5
UKIP 6
Take for example my former seat of Warrington South that has been much commented on. The Lib Dems have not been invisible there and have even sent the Smithson letter there.
Lab -7.5%
Con -3.1%
LD +6.2%
Compared to GE 2017
p.s. There are 8 full days of campaigning left.
Tories will be happy with that
There is a lot of very tame bland nonsense like Romesh Ranganathan and predictable ranty but unfunny Kumar. Even Mark Thomas, who despite totally disagreeing with politically, used to be very funny with his tales of protests / campaigns isn't very interesting these days.
YG MRP not showing any LD Gains from Lab in London
* His show on his dad's progressive supranuclear palsy /and love of opera was also incredible, both moving and funny.
The South-West, cities and outer fringes are still quite white middle-class and older, so that’s where the Tories and Lib Dems have their best chances, but less so in north/north-east London.
Hendon/Finchley etc. are special cases for obvious reasons.
General VI question, constituency specific VI question, would I consider voting tactically in a two horse race, then an open ended question on my opinions on Corbyn, his policies and campaign. LOL.