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Deltapoll Nov 30

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Tim_B

First!

nunu2

And what was the proportion saying the same in 2017?

MightyAlex

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

olm

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Scary.
Some would argue that people (the minority who vote Johnson) get what they deserve (the majority who voted for others have to follow suit).
Proportional representation would somewhat alleviate this and provide for choice of better decision-makers...

Gabs3

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gabs3 said:

nico67 said:

Gabs3 said:

Given how nothingy the contents of the dodgy dossier are, I suspect it is real. But the important question is how complicit Labour was with the Russian meddling in British elections. Were they just naive and played for fools, or did they know whose help they were taking?

Why would Russia want to help Labour . They want the UK definitely out of the EU and helping Labour would seem a strange move .

Why would Russia want a British PM who has taken money to spout anti-Western messages on Russian propaganda outlets, who is against the British-American alliance, who spouted Russian talking points in Syria, and who refers to the terrorist proxies of Iran - a Russian ally - as his friends?

It's a real mystery.

Would that be the same guy who refused to believe Russia assassinated citizens on UK soil using chemical weapons for weeks, despite the rest of the international community saying it was? And demanded we cooperate with them, send them all our intel and meet with Putin to discuss the situation?

The one whose would-be Chancellor supported a terrorist bombing campaign against British civilians? Yes, that's the one.

NorthernPowerhouse

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

And importantly. Don’t call them thick, uneducated or stupid, don’t ridicule their patriotism or that they should be immensely grateful that their neighbourhood has changed dramatically in the space of a decade.

nunu2

Labour is falling in the north but rising in London and the south.
Hence:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LeanTossup/status/1201694157523292160

funkhauser

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Or maybe Labour come up with a decent leader that doesn't have 40 years of anti Western,anti USA, terrorist supporting baggage?

nunu2

Labour is falling in the north but rising in London and the south.
Hence:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LeanTossup/status/1201694157523292160

Henrietta

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning
1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.
2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.
3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.
4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Le Bon (1895), Bernays (1928), and Carnegie (1936) could have told you all of that. Needn't even have read anything published in the last 80 years, such as Cialdini (1984).

RobinWiggs

nunu2 said:

Labour is falling in the north but rising in London and the south.
Hence:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LeanTossup/status/1201694157523292160

That’s an interesting site - particularly their forecast model. I’d like understand their methodology - seems to be based, at least in part, on regional subsamples and thousands of if simulates being run.

Reading his articles, for a youngster, he has an encyclopaedic knowledge of UK political minutiae that PBers would lov.

DecrepiterJohnL

Henrietta said:

Le Bon (1895), Bernays (1928), and Carnegie (1936) could have told you all of that. Needn't even have read anything published in the last 80 years, such as Cialdini (1984).

Now I feel old. Cialdini was the freshest and arguably best-written social psychology text in the university bookshop, back in my day.

tlg86

The reaction to the London Bridge attack is special. Normally we hear about fears of a backlash against Muslims. This time we're hearing about fears of a backlash against terrorists!

Mysticrose

tlg86 said:

The reaction to the London Bridge attack is special. Normally we hear about fears of a backlash against Muslims. This time we're hearing about fears of a backlash against terrorists!

My first and only comment on the attack and it's aftermath is to say that this is in poor taste.

Mysticrose

That Deltapoll is working on the basis of a 13% Conservative lead, the highest of any pollster.

It might be right but I don't think so.

And FWIW you can just as readily pick out other categories that might NOT deliver Johnson his majority, for example the 63% Labour 23% Tory split amongst 18-24's. If they do turn out in force I bet they haven't been picked up by most pollsters.

The polls are narrowing and Labour's share is rising. This election is too close to call.

Mysticrose

And, by the way, since Mike has gone to great lengths to point out previously false memory recall, can I also add that we don't know how many of the alleged Labour leavers from 2017 did actually vote Labour in 2017!!!!!!!

Black_Rook

olm said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Scary.
Some would argue that people (the minority who vote Johnson) get what they deserve (the majority who voted for others have to follow suit).
Proportional representation would somewhat alleviate this and provide for choice of better decision-makers...

And if Labour somehow pull this one out of the fire...
Some would argue that people (the minority who vote Corbyn) get what they deserve (the majority who voted for others have to follow suit).
Proportional representation would somewhat alleviate this and provide for choice of better decision-makers...

This election is very largely about who frightens the pants off the voters the most. And you'll hear no argument from me about PR: it would free the large majority of the electorate from being forced to pick the lesser of two evils all the time (even assuming that we have a meaningful choice, given that most of us live in safe seats.)

SouthamObserver

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Black_Rook

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Agree. But it still doesn't necessarily mean that the magnetic pull of the tribal loyalty vote won't be too strong for them to resist.

SouthamObserver

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Agree. But it still doesn't necessarily mean that the magnetic pull of the tribal loyalty vote won't be too strong for them to resist.

If they did vote Labour in 2017 not voting Labour in 2019 will harm Labour. All that’s needed is for them to stay at home.

Black_Rook

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Agree. But it still doesn't necessarily mean that the magnetic pull of the tribal loyalty vote won't be too strong for them to resist.

If they did vote Labour in 2017 not voting Labour in 2019 will harm Labour. All that’s needed is for them to stay at home.

Oh absolutely. If they stay at home (or vote BXP) then that's still one vote off those small Labour majorities for each defector, as opposed to two if they were to go all the way across to the Tories. I get that.

I'm just sceptical that they will.

The Conservative campaign is trying to overturn ingrained, ancestral patterns of habit voting that often go back for a century - to the benefit of a party that is viewed as centred on the interests of the wealthy and is unloved. If they're successful then Boris Johnson will get his majority. I'm just somewhat less than certain that they will be, to put it mildly.

OldKingCole

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Wasn't it? What about the short-term '£3 for a leadership vote' members?
Does anyone know how many renewed?

rkrkrk

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-tech-firms-want-access-to-10bn-nhs-health-data-zpqwkj6pp?fbclid=IwAR3Nym4IuVLhVeLwUMTfid6KV_8ALHxz1Rp4uvRdT0w1ZA8BV6B0VMPjl0A

Interesting article which raises lots of questions. Should British data from the NHS be subject to British or American law?

Casino_Royale

I’ve only just realised DeltaPoll is Joe Twyman’s spin-off from when he left YouGov.

Really nice guy, Joe - met him once - and he’s not quite as regularly on the money as Sir John Curtice.

I’ve seen them critique each other in debate, and they both don’t hold back!

DecrepiterJohnL

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Although it does also suggest the Labour leadership's reluctance to go 100 per cent Remain had some justification.

DavidL

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Agree. But it still doesn't necessarily mean that the magnetic pull of the tribal loyalty vote won't be too strong for them to resist.

If they did vote Labour in 2017 not voting Labour in 2019 will harm Labour. All that’s needed is for them to stay at home.

Oh absolutely. If they stay at home (or vote BXP) then that's still one vote off those small Labour majorities for each defector, as opposed to two if they were to go all the way across to the Tories. I get that.

I'm just sceptical that they will.

The Conservative campaign is trying to overturn ingrained, ancestral patterns of habit voting that often go back for a century - to the benefit of a party that is viewed as centred on the interests of the wealthy and is unloved. If they're successful then Boris Johnson will get his majority. I'm just somewhat less than certain that they will be, to put it mildly.

My mother in law has been voting Labour for most of that century. Approaching 84, Labour member since 1963, widow of Labour Councillor, traditionally sees Labour as an extension of her Christian beliefs, cannot stand Corbyn, can't bring herself to vote for him. Labour have tested their traditional support to breaking point.

Jonathan

My elderly parents have both changed their vote. Boris lost my mother, who voted happily for May. Corbyn lost my Father who has been Labour.

SunnyJim

DavidL said:

My mother in law has been voting Labour for most of that century. Approaching 84, Labour member since 1963, widow of Labour Councillor, traditionally sees Labour as an extension of her Christian beliefs, cannot stand Corbyn, can't bring herself to vote for him. Labour have tested their traditional support to breaking point.

It has been discussed before on here about how a seemingly impregnable Scottish Labour fell quickly and hard in 2015.

I'm not sure the correlation with England is quite there though because the ideological journey from Lab>Con is a different order of magnitude to Lab>SNP.

Foxy

I like the 6% of Labour Leavers in the header who have decided "bollocks to Brexit, let's vote Lib Dem!"
Surely we were told all this Labour Leaver stuff last time, and how did that work out? I am unconvinced that it will be very different this time.
It's hard to tell though as we enter the phase of an election that is like a toddlers birthday party with the wrong sort of coke.

OldKingCole

I wonder, should Boris say something else unpleasant or wildly inaccurate how many more people will be put off voting Tory!

SunnyJim

OldKingCole said:

Wasn't it? What about the short-term '£3 for a leadership vote' members?
Does anyone know how many renewed?

I didn't.

Casino_Royale

Labour risks becoming quite a middle-class/ student/ graduate/ southern / urban metropolitan/ BAME / public-sector party shedding the vast majority of its WWC base.

That’s enough (with Brexit frustration) to get 30-35%, but its not enough to win. In fact, in normal times, the current platform would barely scrape 25%.

One question Labour should be asking itself is how it gets 5-10% of the Tory electorate to switch over to itself so it can win a majority and form a Government.

But, it seems to view that as beyond the pale.

rkrkrk

Mysticrose said:

That Deltapoll is working on the basis of a 13% Conservative lead, the highest of any pollster.

It might be right but I don't think so.

And FWIW you can just as readily pick out other categories that might NOT deliver Johnson his majority, for example the 63% Labour 23% Tory split amongst 18-24's. If they do turn out in force I bet they haven't been picked up by most pollsters.

The polls are narrowing and Labour's share is rising. This election is too close to call.

Not sure where you're getting this optimism from. Labour are well behind in all the polls.
They might prevent a Johnson majority but even that feels unlikely.

IanB2

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Agree. But it still doesn't necessarily mean that the magnetic pull of the tribal loyalty vote won't be too strong for them to resist.

There is very little loyalty left nowadays. Just two monsters, and a choice between alternate horrible fates.

DavidL

SunnyJim said:

DavidL said:

My mother in law has been voting Labour for most of that century. Approaching 84, Labour member since 1963, widow of Labour Councillor, traditionally sees Labour as an extension of her Christian beliefs, cannot stand Corbyn, can't bring herself to vote for him. Labour have tested their traditional support to breaking point.

It has been discussed before on here about how a seemingly impregnable Scottish Labour fell quickly and hard in 2015.

I'm not sure the correlation with England is quite there though because the ideological journey from Lab>Con is a different order of magnitude to Lab>SNP.

Oh I agree with that. In Scotland under Nicola the SNP have replaced Labour in a way they never managed under Salmond because they are fundamentally a centre left party. Unionist to independence supporter, however, is a switch which makes concerns about Brexit seem trivial and this has allowed the Tories in Scotland to collect some votes from the Labour wreckage.

Charles

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Value added by that post zero.

But i feel your pain

rkrkrk

Casino_Royale said:

Labour risks becoming quite a middle-class/ student/ graduate/ southern / urban metropolitan/ BAME / public-sector party shedding the vast majority of its WWC base.

That’s enough (with Brexit frustration) to get 30-35%, but its not enough to win. In fact, in normal times, the current platform would barely scrape 25%.

One question Labour should be asking itself is how it gets 5-10% of the Tory electorate to switch over to itself so it can win a majority and form a Government.

But, it seems to view that as beyond the pale.

That's a winning coalition I reckon in, perhaps five to ten years.
Graduates alone are something like 25% of the population.

Charles

nunu2 said:

Labour is falling in the north but rising in London and the south.
Hence:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LeanTossup/status/1201694157523292160

Based on regional sub samples mind

swing_voter

is it me, or has the election campaign drifted way off BREXIT (just like 2017)?

Foxy

IanB2 said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Agree. But it still doesn't necessarily mean that the magnetic pull of the tribal loyalty vote won't be too strong for them to resist.

There is very little loyalty left nowadays. Just two monsters, and a choice between alternate horrible fates.

Other parties are available!

Mysticrose

swing_voter said:

is it me, or has the election campaign drifted way off BREXIT (just like 2017)?

No it's not just you.

IanB2

swing_voter said:

is it me, or has the election campaign drifted way off BREXIT (just like 2017)?

Not if you listen to that C4 focus group.

How we got to the stage where Bozo is though more trustworthy than their former political choice is remarkable. And the potential for anger if the Tories deliver a Brexit for the rich is great.

Mysticrose

Charles said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Value added by that post zero.

You were pretty rude to me yesterday but that trumps it. Why do you feel the need to write something like that?

SunnyJim

rkrkrk said:

That's a winning coalition I reckon in, perhaps five to ten years.
Graduates alone are something like 25% of the population.

Shows how important it is for the Tories to be seen to be enabling home ownership among this group.

Feeling like you have a stake in society and having something to 'protect' (home and family) is one of the major triggers that gradually moves young adults from the fiery idealism of youth to a more Conservative friendly position.

Mysticrose

rkrkrk said:

Mysticrose said:

That Deltapoll is working on the basis of a 13% Conservative lead, the highest of any pollster.

It might be right but I don't think so.

And FWIW you can just as readily pick out other categories that might NOT deliver Johnson his majority, for example the 63% Labour 23% Tory split amongst 18-24's. If they do turn out in force I bet they haven't been picked up by most pollsters.

The polls are narrowing and Labour's share is rising. This election is too close to call.

Not sure where you're getting this optimism from. Labour are well behind in all the polls.
They might prevent a Johnson majority but even that feels unlikely.

From a combination of conversations on the street and opinion polling - the latter are repeating 2017. Labour's share has risen from somewhere in the 20's to mid 30's and I can see it continuing to firm up.

I don't think we will have a Labour majority, but equally I don't think we'll have a Conservative one either.

Mysticrose

Foxy said:

I like the 6% of Labour Leavers in the header who have decided "bollocks to Brexit, let's vote Lib Dem!"
Surely we were told all this Labour Leaver stuff last time, and how did that work out? I am unconvinced that it will be very different this time.
It's hard to tell though as we enter the phase of an election that is like a toddlers birthday party with the wrong sort of coke.

SunnyJim

Foxy said:

It's hard to tell though as we enter the phase of an election that is like a toddlers birthday party with the wrong sort of coke.

Lib Dem's taking their pragmatic approach to drug use a little too far.

Mysticrose

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Agree. But it still doesn't necessarily mean that the magnetic pull of the tribal loyalty vote won't be too strong for them to resist.

If they did vote Labour in 2017 not voting Labour in 2019 will harm Labour. All that’s needed is for them to stay at home.

I mostly don't disagree with that, but if that's what this election result rests on then it's not exactly a firm Conservative foundation.

Scrapheap_as_was

Weird to hear Magic Grandpa on the R2 news having a clip about him writing to Trump to advise the NHS isn't for sale.

I thought he was going to be PM next week?

Luckyguy1983

Mysticrose said:

Charles said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Value added by that post zero.

You were pretty rude to me yesterday but that trumps it. Why do you feel the need to write something like that?

Because he didn't tell us what the magical trite four letter word slogan is.

Stocky

Mysticrose said:

rkrkrk said:

Mysticrose said:

That Deltapoll is working on the basis of a 13% Conservative lead, the highest of any pollster.

It might be right but I don't think so.

And FWIW you can just as readily pick out other categories that might NOT deliver Johnson his majority, for example the 63% Labour 23% Tory split amongst 18-24's. If they do turn out in force I bet they haven't been picked up by most pollsters.

The polls are narrowing and Labour's share is rising. This election is too close to call.

Not sure where you're getting this optimism from. Labour are well behind in all the polls.
They might prevent a Johnson majority but even that feels unlikely.

From a combination of conversations on the street and opinion polling - the latter are repeating 2017. Labour's share has risen from somewhere in the 20's to mid 30's and I can see it continuing to firm up.

I don't think we will have a Labour majority, but equally I don't think we'll have a Conservative one either.

If it`s as close as you think, then Betfair`s Evens for Tory seats below 340.5 must be of interest.

RochdalePioneers

Good morning from (where am I this week, ah yes) Warwick. Some puzzlement above as to the 6% of Labour leavers now voting LibDem. I'm one of them, I'm not alone - remember that a decent number of leave voters have changed our minds and now want to stop Brexit.
Some of the posts above note the elements but don't plait them together. Its Brexit plus Corbyn plus left behind "Labour Heartlands". The Labour leave vote seemed largely to coalesce into the left behind areas, where Labour had been in local power since the Danelaw and other than "blame the Tories" had done little for these areas.
For all the Blair was good, he didn't do remotely enough for these areas despite being an MP for one. So people were offered a simple answer to a complex question beyond their comprehension. Your lives will *finally* get better if we leave the EU. And having been persuaded of that they aren't going to be unpersuaded, and even worse for Labour having been persuaded of a right wing project they now question all that their former vote on the left says from a right perspective. These heartlands have always been socially conservative, now they are becoming enamoured with Neo-Right radicalism. Death for Labour who get reduced to a rump party where Corbyn and his followers are literally all thats left

noneoftheabove

IanB2 said:

swing_voter said:

is it me, or has the election campaign drifted way off BREXIT (just like 2017)?

Not if you listen to that C4 focus group.

How we got to the stage where Bozo is though more trustworthy than their former political choice is remarkable. And the potential for anger if the Tories deliver a Brexit for the rich is great.

Yes it shall be Brexit for the rich, followed by a lurch to Corbynism and further disaster as the working class realise they have been played for fools by Johnson. So we shall get the worst of both worlds. And if its a hung parliament no deal becomes more likely than ever.

Stocky

olm said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Scary.
Some would argue that people (the minority who vote Johnson) get what they deserve (the majority who voted for others have to follow suit).
Proportional representation would somewhat alleviate this and provide for choice of better decision-makers...

We tend to forget that the vast majority of people 1) are not interested in politics and 2) are encouraged to vote. They are therefore vulnerable to trite campaigning.
Some change their voting intention over the slightest thing. I know someone who wouldn`t vote for William Hague because of his voice and someone else who wouldn`t vote for Michael Foot because of his dress sense.

RochdalePioneers

Personally I wrote this election off a good while back. My journey into the LibDems is looking beyond the coming Tory win towards what happens when the left behind areas realise that The Brexit was as much of a chimera as any other false hope they have been offered. When Brexit makes their lives even worse than they are now, they will be ready to listen to sane and moderate voices addressing their real issues with real answers. Such a voice in the past could just as easily have come from the centre right (Major) as centre left (Blair).
Now? Tories are hard right. Labour are hard left. Leaving a gaping chasm in the middle that the LibDems have to quickly grow up to settle on all of. We can be a party that happily encompasses Michael Hesletine and Chuka Umunna and Layla Moran. All parties are coalitions, or they were until Labour and Conservative decided to purge all but the zealous.

eek

Mysticrose said:

swing_voter said:

is it me, or has the election campaign drifted way off BREXIT (just like 2017)?

No it's not just you.

People are completely bored with Brexit and want it gone - I suspect a lot no longer care about the end result for it will be what it will be and forced upon them by others - for that is the result of any election where the Government scores less than 50%.

However, this election is the worst I can remember. One side has no policies and the other is throwing money around like it grows on trees.

noneoftheabove

Stocky said:

olm said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Scary.
Some would argue that people (the minority who vote Johnson) get what they deserve (the majority who voted for others have to follow suit).
Proportional representation would somewhat alleviate this and provide for choice of better decision-makers...

We tend to forget that the vast majority of people 1) are not interested in politics and 2) are encouraged to vote. They are therefore vulnerable to trite campaigning.
Some change their voting intention over the slightest thing. I know someone who wouldn`t vote for William Hague because of his voice and someone else who wouldn`t vote for Michael Foot because of his dress sense.

A lot of people will make almost instant decisions about like and dislike on such trivialities but not even be aware of drove them to dislike them initially.

malcolmg

rkrkrk said:

Mysticrose said:

That Deltapoll is working on the basis of a 13% Conservative lead, the highest of any pollster.

It might be right but I don't think so.

And FWIW you can just as readily pick out other categories that might NOT deliver Johnson his majority, for example the 63% Labour 23% Tory split amongst 18-24's. If they do turn out in force I bet they haven't been picked up by most pollsters.

The polls are narrowing and Labour's share is rising. This election is too close to call.

Not sure where you're getting this optimism from. Labour are well behind in all the polls.
They might prevent a Johnson majority but even that feels unlikely.

Were they not well behind in 2017, when all the Tories were wetting themselves about how big the majority would be, deja vu.

Stocky

eek said:

Mysticrose said:

swing_voter said:

is it me, or has the election campaign drifted way off BREXIT (just like 2017)?

No it's not just you.

People are completely bored with Brexit and want it gone - I suspect a lot no longer care about the end result for it will be what it will be and forced upon them by others - for that is the result of any election where the Government scores less than 50%.

However, this election is the worst I can remember. One side has no policies and the other is throwing money around like it grows on trees.

The trouble is that everyone I speak to who says "I`m bored of Brexit" are invariably folk who voted for the bloody thing.

rkrkrk

SunnyJim said:

rkrkrk said:

That's a winning coalition I reckon in, perhaps five to ten years.
Graduates alone are something like 25% of the population.

Shows how important it is for the Tories to be seen to be enabling home ownership among this group.

Feeling like you have a stake in society and having something to 'protect' (home and family) is one of the major triggers that gradually moves young adults from the fiery idealism of youth to a more Conservative friendly position.

You inspired me to check the data. Since 2007, home ownership is down from 56.3% to 51.6% (Resolution Foundation data - goes up to 2017).

Biggest drop is 25-34 y/olds from 36.9% to 25.4%.
It's actually risen for the 65+ age group, up from 70.5% to 74.5%.

ydoethur

Stocky said:

olm said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Scary.
Some would argue that people (the minority who vote Johnson) get what they deserve (the majority who voted for others have to follow suit).
Proportional representation would somewhat alleviate this and provide for choice of better decision-makers...

We tend to forget that the vast majority of people 1) are not interested in politics and 2) are encouraged to vote. They are therefore vulnerable to trite campaigning.
Some change their voting intention over the slightest thing. I know someone who wouldn`t vote for William Hague because of his voice and someone else who wouldn`t vote for Michael Foot because of his dress sense.

The latter person sounds like a right donkey...

NorthernPowerhouse

rkrkrk said:

SunnyJim said:

rkrkrk said:

That's a winning coalition I reckon in, perhaps five to ten years.
Graduates alone are something like 25% of the population.

Shows how important it is for the Tories to be seen to be enabling home ownership among this group.

Feeling like you have a stake in society and having something to 'protect' (home and family) is one of the major triggers that gradually moves young adults from the fiery idealism of youth to a more Conservative friendly position.

You inspired me to check the data. Since 2007, home ownership is down from 56.3% to 51.6% (Resolution Foundation data - goes up to 2017).

Biggest drop is 25-34 y/olds from 36.9% to 25.4%.
It's actually risen for the 65+ age group, up from 70.5% to 74.5%.

It’s not just house price inflation, the caution around deposits and stress testing income by the lenders (at the behest of government) puts a very large barrier to ownership. People are paying more in rent than the equivalent in mortgage even after stress tested at 6%.

How do you loosen this without sparking another boom?

noneoftheabove

RochdalePioneers said:

Personally I wrote this election off a good while back. My journey into the LibDems is looking beyond the coming Tory win towards what happens when the left behind areas realise that The Brexit was as much of a chimera as any other false hope they have been offered. When Brexit makes their lives even worse than they are now, they will be ready to listen to sane and moderate voices addressing their real issues with real answers. Such a voice in the past could just as easily have come from the centre right (Major) as centre left (Blair).
Now? Tories are hard right. Labour are hard left. Leaving a gaping chasm in the middle that the LibDems have to quickly grow up to settle on all of. We can be a party that happily encompasses Michael Hesletine and Chuka Umunna and Layla Moran. All parties are coalitions, or they were until Labour and Conservative decided to purge all but the zealous.

I wish you great success. For me the thing the LDs are missing are great leaders and great policies. Great leaders is tricky to fix, there is a really small selection pool and for whatever reason this generation of policians (across all parties) look way worse than the likes of Ashdown, Kennedy, Blair, Smith, Clarke, Thatcher, Heseltine etc.
Great policies is controllable though, and the manifesto needs to be radical and challenging as well as centrist. Brexiteers and the Labour left are completely right that the country needs change, I fear the current LD plan is for those who want the status quo. I want real change but based on evidence, experts and whats good for the economy, and think that is the only way the LDs can break through.

rkrkrk

malcolmg said:

rkrkrk said:

Mysticrose said:

That Deltapoll is working on the basis of a 13% Conservative lead, the highest of any pollster.

It might be right but I don't think so.

And FWIW you can just as readily pick out other categories that might NOT deliver Johnson his majority, for example the 63% Labour 23% Tory split amongst 18-24's. If they do turn out in force I bet they haven't been picked up by most pollsters.

The polls are narrowing and Labour's share is rising. This election is too close to call.

Not sure where you're getting this optimism from. Labour are well behind in all the polls.
They might prevent a Johnson majority but even that feels unlikely.

Were they not well behind in 2017, when all the Tories were wetting themselves about how big the majority would be, deja vu.

They were behind, but I think at the same distance from election day it was closer.

YouGov/Times
2017-05-31
42
39
Kantar/
2017-05-30
43
33
ICM/Guardian
2017-05-29
45
33
Survation/Good Morning Britain
2017-05-27
43
37

SouthamObserver

RochdalePioneers said:

Good morning from (where am I this week, ah yes) Warwick. Some puzzlement above as to the 6% of Labour leavers now voting LibDem. I'm one of them, I'm not alone - remember that a decent number of leave voters have changed our minds and now want to stop Brexit.
Some of the posts above note the elements but don't plait them together. Its Brexit plus Corbyn plus left behind "Labour Heartlands". The Labour leave vote seemed largely to coalesce into the left behind areas, where Labour had been in local power since the Danelaw and other than "blame the Tories" had done little for these areas.
For all the Blair was good, he didn't do remotely enough for these areas despite being an MP for one. So people were offered a simple answer to a complex question beyond their comprehension. Your lives will *finally* get better if we leave the EU. And having been persuaded of that they aren't going to be unpersuaded, and even worse for Labour having been persuaded of a right wing project they now question all that their former vote on the left says from a right perspective. These heartlands have always been socially conservative, now they are becoming enamoured with Neo-Right radicalism. Death for Labour who get reduced to a rump party where Corbyn and his followers are literally all thats left

I am also in Warwick (& Leamington), so welcome. I have a feeling Labour will get very close to holding on here. Johnson is doing all he can to rebuild the party’s 2017 coalition. Sadly, this election campaign has served only to increase divisions in our already bitterly divided country. It is hard to see how things will be rebuilt any time soon. I suspect it is going to get a lot worse, in fact, as the Tories’ only hope for the future is to double down and keep looking for others to blame.

Jonathan

RochdalePioneers said:

Personally I wrote this election off a good while back. My journey into the LibDems is looking beyond the coming Tory win towards what happens when the left behind areas realise that The Brexit was as much of a chimera as any other false hope they have been offered. When Brexit makes their lives even worse than they are now, they will be ready to listen to sane and moderate voices addressing their real issues with real answers. Such a voice in the past could just as easily have come from the centre right (Major) as centre left (Blair).
Now? Tories are hard right. Labour are hard left. Leaving a gaping chasm in the middle that the LibDems have to quickly grow up to settle on all of. We can be a party that happily encompasses Michael Hesletine and Chuka Umunna and Layla Moran. All parties are coalitions, or they were until Labour and Conservative decided to purge all but the zealous.

The LibDems are not immune from zealotry. The flat revoke policy was pretty extreme. I hope you help them moderate and compromise.

Gallowgate

RochdalePioneers said:

Good morning from (where am I this week, ah yes) Warwick. Some puzzlement above as to the 6% of Labour leavers now voting LibDem. I'm one of them, I'm not alone - remember that a decent number of leave voters have changed our minds and now want to stop Brexit.
Some of the posts above note the elements but don't plait them together. Its Brexit plus Corbyn plus left behind "Labour Heartlands". The Labour leave vote seemed largely to coalesce into the left behind areas, where Labour had been in local power since the Danelaw and other than "blame the Tories" had done little for these areas.
For all the Blair was good, he didn't do remotely enough for these areas despite being an MP for one. So people were offered a simple answer to a complex question beyond their comprehension. Your lives will *finally* get better if we leave the EU. And having been persuaded of that they aren't going to be unpersuaded, and even worse for Labour having been persuaded of a right wing project they now question all that their former vote on the left says from a right perspective. These heartlands have always been socially conservative, now they are becoming enamoured with Neo-Right radicalism. Death for Labour who get reduced to a rump party where Corbyn and his followers are literally all thats left

Blair and New Labour did a lot for the children of these people. So many of my friends and colleagues from university and afterwards are from remote and deprived ex pit villages in County Durham and Northumberland. Of course the children themselves now live in Newcastle or other big cities.

noneoftheabove

NorthernPowerhouse said:

rkrkrk said:

SunnyJim said:

rkrkrk said:

That's a winning coalition I reckon in, perhaps five to ten years.
Graduates alone are something like 25% of the population.

Shows how important it is for the Tories to be seen to be enabling home ownership among this group.

Feeling like you have a stake in society and having something to 'protect' (home and family) is one of the major triggers that gradually moves young adults from the fiery idealism of youth to a more Conservative friendly position.

You inspired me to check the data. Since 2007, home ownership is down from 56.3% to 51.6% (Resolution Foundation data - goes up to 2017).

Biggest drop is 25-34 y/olds from 36.9% to 25.4%.
It's actually risen for the 65+ age group, up from 70.5% to 74.5%.

It’s not just house price inflation, the caution around deposits and stress testing income by the lenders (at the behest of government) puts a very large barrier to ownership. People are paying more in rent than the equivalent in mortgage even after stress tested at 6%.

How do you loosen this without sparking another boom?

It is not deposits and borrowing that makes houses expensive. It is high prices. Stop the government props (subsidies/handouts/welfare to house owners to use the language of free marketeers) and the balance between asset owners and employees will gradually be restored.

Gallowgate

@Stocky and they are in for a rude awakening when it doesn’t “go away” like they think it will.

SouthamObserver

Mysticrose said:

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour Leavers will tend to be older, socially conservative and strongly patriotic. The current Labour leadership could have been specially designed by CCHQ to repel them (and to keep Remain-backing Tories inside the tent).

Agree. But it still doesn't necessarily mean that the magnetic pull of the tribal loyalty vote won't be too strong for them to resist.

If they did vote Labour in 2017 not voting Labour in 2019 will harm Labour. All that’s needed is for them to stay at home.

I mostly don't disagree with that, but if that's what this election result rests on then it's not exactly a firm Conservative foundation.

Not being Corbyn wins Johnson the election. Nothing more. To remain in power the Tories will rely on division and dislike of the other - and the majority’s inability to coalesce around an alternative. It is going to be deeply unpleasant.

IanB2

Charles said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Value added by that post zero.

But i feel your pain

That is unusually grumpy, Charles, even for you.

His post made me go onto All 4 and watch the bloody thing. So it’s added some value for me, at least.

nichomar

Well Pidcock by failing to refute that the NHS documents did not come from Russia has just confirmed that’s where they did come from. How stupid can you get.

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

Not being Corbyn wins Johnson the election. Nothing more. To remain in power the Tories will rely on division and dislike of the other - and the majority’s inability to coalesce around an alternative. It is going to be deeply unpleasant.

‘Going to be?’

Nigelb

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning
1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.
2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.
3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.
4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Value added by that post zero.
But i feel your pain

That is unusually grumpy, Charles, even for you.
His post made me go onto All 4 and watch the bloody thing. So it’s added some value for me, at least.

Those making judgments about value might profitably take a look at their own posts.

Gallowgate

nichomar said:

Well Pidcock by failing to refute that the NHS documents did not come from Russia has just confirmed that’s where they did come from. How stupid can you get.

Which documents are these? The leaked ones on the trade negotiations? The ones that were on Reddit for weeks before Labour got hold of them?

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

Labour risks becoming quite a middle-class/ student/ graduate/ southern / urban metropolitan/ BAME / public-sector party shedding the vast majority of its WWC base.

That’s enough (with Brexit frustration) to get 30-35%, but its not enough to win. In fact, in normal times, the current platform would barely scrape 25%.

One question Labour should be asking itself is how it gets 5-10% of the Tory electorate to switch over to itself so it can win a majority and form a Government.

But, it seems to view that as beyond the pale.

Alternatively, if Labour can get 30%+ when led by an anti-Semitic, anti-NATO, Bennite dinosaur, what might they get if the membership ever decided it wanted to win elections? The Tories are offering nothing except not having Corbyn as their leader.

Scrapheap_as_was

What's all this about? A cunning ruse to get back on to the Tory Russia oligarch donor issue?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1201772531428057088?s=20

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

Not being Corbyn wins Johnson the election. Nothing more. To remain in power the Tories will rely on division and dislike of the other - and the majority’s inability to coalesce around an alternative. It is going to be deeply unpleasant.

‘Going to be?’

‘Going to rain tomorrow’ doesn’t mean we weren’t pissed on today...

ydoethur

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What's all this about? A cunning ruse to get back on to the Tory Russia oligarch donor issue?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1201772531428057088?s=20

Laura Pidocock - oooops!

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

What's all this about? A cunning ruse to get back on to the Tory Russia oligarch donor issue?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1201772531428057088?s=20

Laura Pidocock - oooops!

That makes an unfortunate homophone.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

Not being Corbyn wins Johnson the election. Nothing more. To remain in power the Tories will rely on division and dislike of the other - and the majority’s inability to coalesce around an alternative. It is going to be deeply unpleasant.

‘Going to be?’

‘Going to rain tomorrow’ doesn’t mean we weren’t pissed on today...

Although we weren’t yesterday, cold and frosty here.

RochdalePioneers

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/02/jo-swinson-corbyn-hung-parliament-lib-dems-support-labour
Not sure Bogdanor has been listening. He asks: Will the LibDems really vote against a Corbyn government? No - we'll abstain. As we would a similar vote for aminoroty Tory government. He goes on to suggest that we would support such a minority government on a case by case basis - yes, we've already said that as well.
Neither Johnson nor Corbyn is fit to be PM. One of them almost certainly will become PM, I for one couldn't endorse either of them. Either will have some issues worth supporting as all governments do - so support those issues. It's pretty simple once you set aside the "if you don't back Lab/Con you're Con/Lab" nonsense. I know its nonsense because as a happy little apparatchik I used to say it.

Nigelb

Resistance is useless...
Taiwan loses 3,000 chip engineers to 'Made in China 2025'
Beijing rolls out red carpet with triple the pay and benefits
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/Taiwan-loses-3-000-chip-engineers-to-Made-in-China-2025

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

Not being Corbyn wins Johnson the election. Nothing more. To remain in power the Tories will rely on division and dislike of the other - and the majority’s inability to coalesce around an alternative. It is going to be deeply unpleasant.

‘Going to be?’

‘Going to rain tomorrow’ doesn’t mean we weren’t pissed on today...

Although we weren’t yesterday, cold and frosty here.

Warm and friendly here.

Philip_Thompson

RochdalePioneers said:

Personally I wrote this election off a good while back. My journey into the LibDems is looking beyond the coming Tory win towards what happens when the left behind areas realise that The Brexit was as much of a chimera as any other false hope they have been offered. When Brexit makes their lives even worse than they are now, they will be ready to listen to sane and moderate voices addressing their real issues with real answers. Such a voice in the past could just as easily have come from the centre right (Major) as centre left (Blair).
Now? Tories are hard right. Labour are hard left. Leaving a gaping chasm in the middle that the LibDems have to quickly grow up to settle on all of. We can be a party that happily encompasses Michael Hesletine and Chuka Umunna and Layla Moran. All parties are coalitions, or they were until Labour and Conservative decided to purge all but the zealous.

The Tories aren't hard right, the only ones purged were the undemocratic refuseniks like Hammond and Grieve who refused to accept we'd voted to Leave the EU and we were serious that leaving meant actually not being in the single union/customs union as they themselves had said during the referendum.

OnlyLivingBoy

IanB2 said:

Charles said:

MightyAlex said:

It's not great but nor is it that 2:1 con:lab split I keep hearing about. However that channel 4 focus group has taken years from my life. I think I now understand modern campaigning

1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.

2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.

3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.

4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.

Value added by that post zero.

But i feel your pain

That is unusually grumpy, Charles, even for you.

His post made me go onto All 4 and watch the bloody thing. So it’s added some value for me, at least.

Charles put his haughtiness setting at 11 and dictated the post to his butler.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

Resistance is useless...
Taiwan loses 3,000 chip engineers to 'Made in China 2025'
Beijing rolls out red carpet with triple the pay and benefits
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/Taiwan-loses-3-000-chip-engineers-to-Made-in-China-2025

If I had been negotiating brexit, my first act would have been to offer everyone at the EMA double the money to work for a new UK medicines agency in the same building.
Then Herr Juncker might have thought twice about playing silly buggers over backstops.
Have a good morning.

nichomar

Gallowgate said:

nichomar said:

Well Pidcock by failing to refute that the NHS documents did not come from Russia has just confirmed that’s where they did come from. How stupid can you get.

Which documents are these? The leaked ones on the trade negotiations? The ones that were on Reddit for weeks before Labour got hold of them?

Yes but she would provide an answer claiming it was a distraction from the issues and lost the rest of the interview to arguing about the distraction rather than the message.

Alistair

My boy Evan McMullin seems to have reached a breaking point on Twitter.

He's now advocating that the Republican party is beyond saving and needs to be destroyed.

Stocky

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/02/jo-swinson-corbyn-hung-parliament-lib-dems-support-labour
Not sure Bogdanor has been listening. He asks: Will the LibDems really vote against a Corbyn government? No - we'll abstain. As we would a similar vote for aminoroty Tory government. He goes on to suggest that we would support such a minority government on a case by case basis - yes, we've already said that as well.
Neither Johnson nor Corbyn is fit to be PM. One of them almost certainly will become PM, I for one couldn't endorse either of them. Either will have some issues worth supporting as all governments do - so support those issues. It's pretty simple once you set aside the "if you don't back Lab/Con you're Con/Lab" nonsense. I know its nonsense because as a happy little apparatchik I used to say it.

What I can`t get my head round is this: If CP wins most seats but fail to win majority, can`t form any coalitions and refuse to run on a minority basis, then how can Labour be permitted to run on an minority basis with fewer seats than the Tories? This doesn`t seem right.

noneoftheabove

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/02/jo-swinson-corbyn-hung-parliament-lib-dems-support-labour
Not sure Bogdanor has been listening. He asks: Will the LibDems really vote against a Corbyn government? No - we'll abstain. As we would a similar vote for aminoroty Tory government. He goes on to suggest that we would support such a minority government on a case by case basis - yes, we've already said that as well.
Neither Johnson nor Corbyn is fit to be PM. One of them almost certainly will become PM, I for one couldn't endorse either of them. Either will have some issues worth supporting as all governments do - so support those issues. It's pretty simple once you set aside the "if you don't back Lab/Con you're Con/Lab" nonsense. I know its nonsense because as a happy little apparatchik I used to say it.

To be fair, outside of political geeks Id imagine a clear majority understand Swinson and LD language on Corbyn being PM as they would immediately vote no confidence against him. Id interpreted it simply as no c&s or coalitions, if the numbers are needed imagine the LDs will vote for a minority govt as needed to stop no deal.
There will be an electoral price to pay for that confusion if there is another election later in 2020 after a referendum.

Philip_Thompson

rkrkrk said:

SunnyJim said:

rkrkrk said:

That's a winning coalition I reckon in, perhaps five to ten years.
Graduates alone are something like 25% of the population.

Shows how important it is for the Tories to be seen to be enabling home ownership among this group.

Feeling like you have a stake in society and having something to 'protect' (home and family) is one of the major triggers that gradually moves young adults from the fiery idealism of youth to a more Conservative friendly position.

You inspired me to check the data. Since 2007, home ownership is down from 56.3% to 51.6% (Resolution Foundation data - goes up to 2017).

Biggest drop is 25-34 y/olds from 36.9% to 25.4%.
It's actually risen for the 65+ age group, up from 70.5% to 74.5%.

Was dropping consistently from 2007 (actually even since before then) until 2012.
Stayed roughly flat from about 2012-2015
Now rising again from then to the latest data.

If the Tories get an overall majority they must as a priority ensure the nascent rise in homeownership continues even through any economic turmoil. By the next election they should have ensured that has lifted off more.

Mexicanpete

Interesting commentary by Oborne in The Guardian, re: pro Johnson coverage in the BBC news. Mentions Laura's reliance on private briefings by Cummings and imbalanced coverage of IFS report. BBC covered criticism of Labour 10 times more than they did Cons. His analysis is BBC not pro Tory so much as traditionally pro Government. He hopes this is the case rather than the BBC currying favour with the future government

RochdalePioneers

Gallowgate said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Good morning from (where am I this week, ah yes) Warwick. Some puzzlement above as to the 6% of Labour leavers now voting LibDem. I'm one of them, I'm not alone - remember that a decent number of leave voters have changed our minds and now want to stop Brexit.
Some of the posts above note the elements but don't plait them together. Its Brexit plus Corbyn plus left behind "Labour Heartlands". The Labour leave vote seemed largely to coalesce into the left behind areas, where Labour had been in local power since the Danelaw and other than "blame the Tories" had done little for these areas.
For all the Blair was good, he didn't do remotely enough for these areas despite being an MP for one. So people were offered a simple answer to a complex question beyond their comprehension. Your lives will *finally* get better if we leave the EU. And having been persuaded of that they aren't going to be unpersuaded, and even worse for Labour having been persuaded of a right wing project they now question all that their former vote on the left says from a right perspective. These heartlands have always been socially conservative, now they are becoming enamoured with Neo-Right radicalism. Death for Labour who get reduced to a rump party where Corbyn and his followers are literally all thats left

Blair and New Labour did a lot for the children of these people. So many of my friends and colleagues from university and afterwards are from remote and deprived ex pit villages in County Durham and Northumberland. Of course the children themselves now live in Newcastle or other big cities.

A lot on the surface for these areas. But materially? Digging below the surface? The endlessly poor but hey you have a job down't pit in't factory are now endlessly poor but hey you have a job in't Amazon warehouse and an iPad.

Philip_Thompson

NorthernPowerhouse said:

rkrkrk said:

SunnyJim said:

rkrkrk said:

That's a winning coalition I reckon in, perhaps five to ten years.
Graduates alone are something like 25% of the population.

Shows how important it is for the Tories to be seen to be enabling home ownership among this group.

Feeling like you have a stake in society and having something to 'protect' (home and family) is one of the major triggers that gradually moves young adults from the fiery idealism of youth to a more Conservative friendly position.

You inspired me to check the data. Since 2007, home ownership is down from 56.3% to 51.6% (Resolution Foundation data - goes up to 2017).

Biggest drop is 25-34 y/olds from 36.9% to 25.4%.
It's actually risen for the 65+ age group, up from 70.5% to 74.5%.

It’s not just house price inflation, the caution around deposits and stress testing income by the lenders (at the behest of government) puts a very large barrier to ownership. People are paying more in rent than the equivalent in mortgage even after stress tested at 6%.

How do you loosen this without sparking another boom?

I know its unpopular on this site but Help to Buy has helped with this both to make it easier to get deposits and to encourage housebuilders to build increasing amounts of homes.

There is no coincidence that the recent increase in homeownership rates has coincided with the increase in homebuilding rates.

noneoftheabove

Stocky said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/02/jo-swinson-corbyn-hung-parliament-lib-dems-support-labour
Not sure Bogdanor has been listening. He asks: Will the LibDems really vote against a Corbyn government? No - we'll abstain. As we would a similar vote for aminoroty Tory government. He goes on to suggest that we would support such a minority government on a case by case basis - yes, we've already said that as well.
Neither Johnson nor Corbyn is fit to be PM. One of them almost certainly will become PM, I for one couldn't endorse either of them. Either will have some issues worth supporting as all governments do - so support those issues. It's pretty simple once you set aside the "if you don't back Lab/Con you're Con/Lab" nonsense. I know its nonsense because as a happy little apparatchik I used to say it.

What I can`t get my head round is this: If CP wins most seats but fail to win majority, can`t form any coalitions and refuse to run on a minority basis, then how can Labour be permitted to run on an minority basis with fewer seats than the Tories? This doesn`t seem right.

A government represents parliament not a party. So it needs to have the confidence of parliament, that is normally found by party numbers, but it could be led by anyone as we saw with theories of Bercow taking over as PM.

llef

Latest UK election opinion poll from Kantar shows Conservative party extending it's lead over Labour ...

Conservative 44% +1
Labour 32% Unchanged

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1201773807125639171

Philip_Thompson

Alistair said:

My boy Evan McMullin seems to have reached a breaking point on Twitter.

He's now advocating that the Republican party is beyond saving and needs to be destroyed.

Just like Labour. I completely agree.

llef

The poll put support for the Conservatives at 44%, up one point from a week earlier, while Labour was unchanged on 32%. The pro-European Union Liberal Democrats were up one point on 15%, while the Brexit Party was down one point on 2%.

Kantar surveyed 1,096 people online between Nov. 28 and Dec. 2.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-kantar/conservatives-widen-poll-lead-over-labour-to-12-points-kantar-poll-idUKKBN1Y70PQ?il=0

Stocky

noneoftheabove said:

Stocky said:

RochdalePioneers said:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/02/jo-swinson-corbyn-hung-parliament-lib-dems-support-labour
Not sure Bogdanor has been listening. He asks: Will the LibDems really vote against a Corbyn government? No - we'll abstain. As we would a similar vote for aminoroty Tory government. He goes on to suggest that we would support such a minority government on a case by case basis - yes, we've already said that as well.
Neither Johnson nor Corbyn is fit to be PM. One of them almost certainly will become PM, I for one couldn't endorse either of them. Either will have some issues worth supporting as all governments do - so support those issues. It's pretty simple once you set aside the "if you don't back Lab/Con you're Con/Lab" nonsense. I know its nonsense because as a happy little apparatchik I used to say it.

What I can`t get my head round is this: If CP wins most seats but fail to win majority, can`t form any coalitions and refuse to run on a minority basis, then how can Labour be permitted to run on an minority basis with fewer seats than the Tories? This doesn`t seem right.

A government represents parliament not a party. So it needs to have the confidence of parliament, that is normally found by party numbers, but it could be led by anyone as we saw with theories of Bercow taking over as PM.

Sure, a GoNU is a possibility - but only with a majority. My point is a different one: how can we end up with a minority LP government (assuming that LP win fewer seats than CP)?
Seems to me that in this scenario the SNP/LDs will have to buddy-up with LP in some way, or a GoNU, or there will have to be a further GE.