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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting group that looks set to give Johnson his majority –

Deltapoll Nov 30
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1) Compose a trite slogan, must be less than 4 letters so as to be memorable by people who find their pin number a difficult concept.
2) Regurgitate it enough times so it is retained just long enough to give these people the impression it is their original idea.
3) Make sure very slight variations of this idea are written in 80pt block capitals in your local tax exiles rag.
4) Profit. Your low information, high emotion voter will now believe that 'Brexit will hurt the wealthy more than them' and that 'Johnson is a trustworthy, straight talking man of the people' and more than likely they assume they invented this stuff.
Some would argue that people (the minority who vote Johnson) get what they deserve (the majority who voted for others have to follow suit).
Proportional representation would somewhat alleviate this and provide for choice of better decision-makers...
Hence:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LeanTossup/status/1201694157523292160
Hence:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LeanTossup/status/1201694157523292160
Reading his articles, for a youngster, he has an encyclopaedic knowledge of UK political minutiae that PBers would lov.
It might be right but I don't think so.
And FWIW you can just as readily pick out other categories that might NOT deliver Johnson his majority, for example the 63% Labour 23% Tory split amongst 18-24's. If they do turn out in force I bet they haven't been picked up by most pollsters.
The polls are narrowing and Labour's share is rising. This election is too close to call.
Some would argue that people (the minority who vote Corbyn) get what they deserve (the majority who voted for others have to follow suit).
Proportional representation would somewhat alleviate this and provide for choice of better decision-makers...
This election is very largely about who frightens the pants off the voters the most. And you'll hear no argument from me about PR: it would free the large majority of the electorate from being forced to pick the lesser of two evils all the time (even assuming that we have a meaningful choice, given that most of us live in safe seats.)
I'm just sceptical that they will.
The Conservative campaign is trying to overturn ingrained, ancestral patterns of habit voting that often go back for a century - to the benefit of a party that is viewed as centred on the interests of the wealthy and is unloved. If they're successful then Boris Johnson will get his majority. I'm just somewhat less than certain that they will be, to put it mildly.
Does anyone know how many renewed?
Interesting article which raises lots of questions. Should British data from the NHS be subject to British or American law?
Really nice guy, Joe - met him once - and he’s not quite as regularly on the money as Sir John Curtice.
I’ve seen them critique each other in debate, and they both don’t hold back!
I'm not sure the correlation with England is quite there though because the ideological journey from Lab>Con is a different order of magnitude to Lab>SNP.
Surely we were told all this Labour Leaver stuff last time, and how did that work out? I am unconvinced that it will be very different this time.
It's hard to tell though as we enter the phase of an election that is like a toddlers birthday party with the wrong sort of coke.
That’s enough (with Brexit frustration) to get 30-35%, but its not enough to win. In fact, in normal times, the current platform would barely scrape 25%.
One question Labour should be asking itself is how it gets 5-10% of the Tory electorate to switch over to itself so it can win a majority and form a Government.
But, it seems to view that as beyond the pale.
They might prevent a Johnson majority but even that feels unlikely.
But i feel your pain
Graduates alone are something like 25% of the population.
How we got to the stage where Bozo is though more trustworthy than their former political choice is remarkable. And the potential for anger if the Tories deliver a Brexit for the rich is great.
Feeling like you have a stake in society and having something to 'protect' (home and family) is one of the major triggers that gradually moves young adults from the fiery idealism of youth to a more Conservative friendly position.
I don't think we will have a Labour majority, but equally I don't think we'll have a Conservative one either.
I thought he was going to be PM next week?
Some of the posts above note the elements but don't plait them together. Its Brexit plus Corbyn plus left behind "Labour Heartlands". The Labour leave vote seemed largely to coalesce into the left behind areas, where Labour had been in local power since the Danelaw and other than "blame the Tories" had done little for these areas.
For all the Blair was good, he didn't do remotely enough for these areas despite being an MP for one. So people were offered a simple answer to a complex question beyond their comprehension. Your lives will *finally* get better if we leave the EU. And having been persuaded of that they aren't going to be unpersuaded, and even worse for Labour having been persuaded of a right wing project they now question all that their former vote on the left says from a right perspective. These heartlands have always been socially conservative, now they are becoming enamoured with Neo-Right radicalism. Death for Labour who get reduced to a rump party where Corbyn and his followers are literally all thats left
Some change their voting intention over the slightest thing. I know someone who wouldn`t vote for William Hague because of his voice and someone else who wouldn`t vote for Michael Foot because of his dress sense.
Now? Tories are hard right. Labour are hard left. Leaving a gaping chasm in the middle that the LibDems have to quickly grow up to settle on all of. We can be a party that happily encompasses Michael Hesletine and Chuka Umunna and Layla Moran. All parties are coalitions, or they were until Labour and Conservative decided to purge all but the zealous.
However, this election is the worst I can remember. One side has no policies and the other is throwing money around like it grows on trees.
Biggest drop is 25-34 y/olds from 36.9% to 25.4%.
It's actually risen for the 65+ age group, up from 70.5% to 74.5%.
How do you loosen this without sparking another boom?
Great policies is controllable though, and the manifesto needs to be radical and challenging as well as centrist. Brexiteers and the Labour left are completely right that the country needs change, I fear the current LD plan is for those who want the status quo. I want real change but based on evidence, experts and whats good for the economy, and think that is the only way the LDs can break through.
YouGov/Times
2017-05-31
42
39
Kantar/
2017-05-30
43
33
ICM/Guardian
2017-05-29
45
33
Survation/Good Morning Britain
2017-05-27
43
37
His post made me go onto All 4 and watch the bloody thing. So it’s added some value for me, at least.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1201772531428057088?s=20
Not sure Bogdanor has been listening. He asks: Will the LibDems really vote against a Corbyn government? No - we'll abstain. As we would a similar vote for aminoroty Tory government. He goes on to suggest that we would support such a minority government on a case by case basis - yes, we've already said that as well.
Neither Johnson nor Corbyn is fit to be PM. One of them almost certainly will become PM, I for one couldn't endorse either of them. Either will have some issues worth supporting as all governments do - so support those issues. It's pretty simple once you set aside the "if you don't back Lab/Con you're Con/Lab" nonsense. I know its nonsense because as a happy little apparatchik I used to say it.
Taiwan loses 3,000 chip engineers to 'Made in China 2025'
Beijing rolls out red carpet with triple the pay and benefits
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/Taiwan-loses-3-000-chip-engineers-to-Made-in-China-2025
Then Herr Juncker might have thought twice about playing silly buggers over backstops.
Have a good morning.
He's now advocating that the Republican party is beyond saving and needs to be destroyed.
There will be an electoral price to pay for that confusion if there is another election later in 2020 after a referendum.
Stayed roughly flat from about 2012-2015
Now rising again from then to the latest data.
If the Tories get an overall majority they must as a priority ensure the nascent rise in homeownership continues even through any economic turmoil. By the next election they should have ensured that has lifted off more.
There is no coincidence that the recent increase in homeownership rates has coincided with the increase in homebuilding rates.
Conservative 44% +1
Labour 32% Unchanged
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1201773807125639171
Kantar surveyed 1,096 people online between Nov. 28 and Dec. 2.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-kantar/conservatives-widen-poll-lead-over-labour-to-12-points-kantar-poll-idUKKBN1Y70PQ?il=0
Seems to me that in this scenario the SNP/LDs will have to buddy-up with LP in some way, or a GoNU, or there will have to be a further GE.