politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voting group that looks set to give Johnson his majority –
Comments
-
Eh? The risk is in not voting tacticallyCasino_Royale said:
I don’t think there will be mass tactical voting this time: the stakes are too high, and the outcome of this election too uncertain.RochdalePioneers said:Question. If the polls aren't narrowing. If the word on the ground that Labour are shedding a million of the leave votes isn't showing signs of being false. If the swathe of seats across the NE and Midlands that are going blue like NW Durham and Easington are real.
At which point in the last week does the tsunami of tactical voting start to show? Corbyn isn't getting near Number 10. So Tories who hate Johnson and Labour who hate Corbyn don't have to hold their nose. And those people who don't want a blue tidal wave or a red one. When do they wake up and look at who the challenger is to Raab and Pidcock and go "I'm voting for them"?
A Tory MP in Easington. Holy Shit.
No-one is going to take the risk.0 -
SwingbackTheuniondivvie said:
I may be mis-remembering but wasn't Rod 'great with numbers except 6 million' Crosby a fan of the Lebo Norpoth model?Pulpstar said:One crumb of comfort for Labour is the PM and the Pendulum, Lebo Norpoth model that points toward a hung parliament. But we haven't had 9 years of broadly the same Tory Gov't in the way we had in 1988 or Labour Gov't in 2006 - 2010 -15, 15-17, 17-19,19+ have all been markedly different ministries. And both of those went on for a little while longer...
Kalman filters
all sorts of weird and wonderful 'predictive' tools.
Nonsense in, nonsense out.1 -
I think the Easington rumour arose because the Labour battlebus was scheduled for a visit there. But we shouldn't read too much into that - in all likelihood this visit was driven more by logistics than political strategy.RochdalePioneers said:
Why? It's regional voting. It's not nationalwooliedyed said:
Easington isn't going blue. If it is, labour are not in treble figuresRochdalePioneers said:Question. If the polls aren't narrowing. If the word on the ground that Labour are shedding a million of the leave votes isn't showing signs of being false. If the swathe of seats across the NE and Midlands that are going blue like NW Durham and Easington are real.
At which point in the last week does the tsunami of tactical voting start to show? Corbyn isn't getting near Number 10. So Tories who hate Johnson and Labour who hate Corbyn don't have to hold their nose. And those people who don't want a blue tidal wave or a red one. When do they wake up and look at who the challenger is to Raab and Pidcock and go "I'm voting for them"?
A Tory MP in Easington. Holy Shit.
Eastington is the sort of seat I'd expect to swing against Labour. But surely the scale of swing is too great for them to lose it? This is a seat with very stable demographics - and very rarely do that many people change their minds.1 -
Course it's bollocks.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is bollocks, the Saudis and Kuwaitis paid billions of dollars for things like Gulf War I.Fenster said:If this stuff Trump is saying is true, then it is remarkable.
For instance, he just said he asked Saudi for billions of dollars for US military support, and they gave it to him (Trump said it's in the bank). Apparently, the US had never asked before; the military support was always given for free.
Is this stuff true?!
If it is I suppose there are some benefits to running a country like a car salesman.
But it contains a germ of truth in that Rump seems determined to convert all his defence alliances into what are essentially protection rackets.
0 -
No because they are basing their plans on getting substantially more from taxes on corporations that will simply not materialise but are still committed to the election pledges.Sandpit said:
Okay, so they’ve chosen £82k becuase it’s just above their £80k level where they say people will pay more.rkrkrk said:
I think the point they are trying to make (not very well admittedly) is that under Labour, if you earn 82k, you'll pay an additional 8 quid/month.Sandpit said:
LOL, is that from the genuine Labour account?Scrapheap_as_was said:Yet more magic maths from the Marxists....
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/1201778126885466112?s=20
Someone on £82k currently pays £20,300 in income tax and £5,600 in NI, according to my tax calculator - a total of £498.20 a week.
So they’re saying that on the £2k above that level, only £96 a year additional tax will be paid, so they are saying that the marginal income tax rate will move from 40% to c.40.5% - is that right?0 -
Looks very favourable to the Lib Dems?HYUFD said:0 -
Not much joy for Labour there then.Barnesian said:I have tested the sensitivity of my model to the tactical voting assumptions by turning each one to zero in turn and observing the effect on Con/Lab/LD.
LD to Lab zero +18/-18/0
Lab to LD zero +6/0/-6
Green to Lab Zero +4/-4/0
BXP to Con zero -3/+2/+10 -
He says that about all his criminal associates, too.Big_G_NorthWales said:Asked about Corbyn Trump says
'I do not know anything about the guy'
0 -
Anecdata.
My postman (Ashfield) says he had delivered 900 Lab leaflets and 1200 Tory. Think that means individually addressed and in total. My Labour leaflet this morning was printed by Potts Print of Northumberland.
They are still repeating the £500m a week drugs claim.
Postman is sceptical of the Magic Money Forest.
Non post for me today ... just the leaflet and a pizza flyer.0 -
I'd say what he essentially is is a con man. He's not a redneck - he's a silver spoon child of privilege - but he is able to act the part convincingly enough to impress the real thing. Similarly with racism. He may not be a rancid racist at heart (I'm feeling generous today) but he has no compunction about dog whistling an insidious tune that whispers to racists, "Hey, you guys, I get you. And you're OK, you know what I mean?"Peter_the_Punter said:Well, he's basically a redneck who tunes in very easily to what his redneck base wants to hear. He has the language and the tone of a pub boor and he tells his base what it wants to hear. Whether this is essentially racist it debatable. Whether it is good for the USA, Politics and the world order generally is not.
1 -
-
I hope so too. I would really like someone to say that no matter how badly Brexit goes there will be no attack on pensions.Sandpit said:
I really hope we go hard on pensions for the last week. Almost everyone in work now has a private pension and therefore needs to care about what Corbyn will do to them, with his hatred of successful business and wish to nationalise whole industries for a fraction of their market value. It’s not about Amazon and Starbucks, it’s about your pension and mine.MarqueeMark said:
You nationalize ONE company "at a bit below market value" - and you set off a tidal wave of evacuations of businesses thinking "It could be us next".kinabalu said:
Driven by "off balance sheet financing" aka fiddling the books. And just like most transactions between the state and the private sector, the state (i.e. the public) was ripped off and the private sector operatives got a great deal. Which is why I am supremely relaxed about the idea that Labour might nationalize certain companies at a bit below market value. That would be one against the head if they do.Nigelb said:Yes, PFI turned out really well.
And watch how pension funds get destroyed in the process. You know, those pension funds Labour has to plunder to finance its plans....0 -
Does he remember holding her hand?Peter_the_Punter said:
The guy's getting old. His memory is failing. Give him a break. You can't expect him to remember what he said to the previous PM. He probably doesn't even remember who the previous PM was.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/12013816541803520000 -
Thank you.RochdalePioneers said:
Why? It's regional voting. It's not nationalwooliedyed said:
Easington isn't going blue. If it is, labour are not in treble figuresRochdalePioneers said:Question. If the polls aren't narrowing. If the word on the ground that Labour are shedding a million of the leave votes isn't showing signs of being false. If the swathe of seats across the NE and Midlands that are going blue like NW Durham and Easington are real.
At which point in the last week does the tsunami of tactical voting start to show? Corbyn isn't getting near Number 10. So Tories who hate Johnson and Labour who hate Corbyn don't have to hold their nose. And those people who don't want a blue tidal wave or a red one. When do they wake up and look at who the challenger is to Raab and Pidcock and go "I'm voting for them"?
A Tory MP in Easington. Holy Shit.0 -
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*3 -
!! There we go... he just reels off the bullshit quite effortlessly then.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is bollocks, the Saudis and Kuwaitis paid billions of dollars for things like Gulf War I.Fenster said:If this stuff Trump is saying is true, then it is remarkable.
For instance, he just said he asked Saudi for billions of dollars for US military support, and they gave it to him (Trump said it's in the bank). Apparently, the US had never asked before; the military support was always given for free.
Is this stuff true?!
If it is I suppose there are some benefits to running a country like a car salesman.0 -
We essentially agree, although ...as our science and technology gets adapted and adopted overseas... considerably overstates the matter. Most of the renewable technology is from overseas.Philip_Thompson said:
What we do with our emissions will make a negligible impact in the grand scheme of things.Pulpstar said:
With Cchhhiiiinnnnna pumping out more emissions than ever does it particularly matter what we do on climate ?Dura_Ace said:
You'll have five full years of fucking the poor and the environment to enjoy so try to take comfort from that.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Ive never encountered such hostility to an individual on the doorstep as i have for Corbyn. Remarkable, as a Con it makes me shudder a little at how much support for the Cons will disappear if Labour choose a leader who has greater appeal.squareroot2 said:If you read SO every day, you really would think everyone loathed Boris, if you read me, you'd think everyone loathed Corbyn.
Viewpoints on here are not necessarily the views of the electorate.
I mean I think we've got a massive success we can run with wrt wind power (Not so much nuclear) and the Tories not going that tidal project was an error but we're roundings at the margins compared to China and the USA.
What we do with science and technology can have a mammoth impact worldwide as our science and technology gets adapted and adopted overseas. Especially if we can do it without subsidies because then it is worthwhile for other nations to do the same as us.
We need to continue with what we are doing. We have successfully led the world in sustainable and cheap renewable energy. We have reached a point now where without subsidies new offshore wind farms are cheaper to generate energy than any other form of energy - coal, gas, nuclear or otherwise.
We need to continue encouraging developments like this and then China can think we want cheap energy too, lets copy what the Brits are doing. And then we have a real impact. If we just shoot ourselves in the head, end our emissions unilaterally and import our goods from China we increase not reduce global emissions.
If the world gets to zero emissions, the bulk of that will be from solar, which is (and will continue to be) manufactured largely in China.
Our contribution would be to demonstrate that you can transition to 100% renewables without crashing the economy.
And we need to accelerate that transition considerably, as a matter of urgency.0 -
A good Kantar poll for the Tories and a big relief for the Lib Dems after the Survation horror show which had them at just 11%.
0 -
Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
Doubt it. Maybe if he'd grabbed her pussy....nunu2 said:
Does he remember holding her hand?Peter_the_Punter said:
The guy's getting old. His memory is failing. Give him a break. You can't expect him to remember what he said to the previous PM. He probably doesn't even remember who the previous PM was.Theuniondivvie said:1 -
And isn't the UK road programme being plundered to pay for those SE rail commuters? What could possibly go wrong electorally......RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*1 -
Swings like that are often demographically driven and likely to continueMarqueeMark said:
The 2017 9.9% swing to Labour was huge. Scope for that to unwind just as decisively?Stocky said:Reading East: Take a look at oddschecker. Can get Evens Labour with Ladbrokes and 15/8 Tories with Betfair Sportsbook.
I`m already big on Lab in that constituency at 15/8 and 2/1 so won`t bet more, but there is considerable disparity of pricing here.
Anyone have any insight?
I think fair chance of a Tory gain.1 -
I suspect he is a racist at heart. It is difficult to grow up in a family where the father was arrested at a KKK rally and was a Mafia associate (and the Mafia are very racist) without it rubbing off.kinabalu said:
I'd say what he essentially is is a con man. He's not a redneck - he's a silver spoon child of privilege - but he is able to act the part convincingly enough to impress the real thing. Similarly with racism. He may not be a rancid racist at heart (I'm feeling generous today) but he has no compunction about dog whistling an insidious tune that whispers to racists, "Hey, you guys, I get you. And you're OK, you know what I mean?"Peter_the_Punter said:Well, he's basically a redneck who tunes in very easily to what his redneck base wants to hear. He has the language and the tone of a pub boor and he tells his base what it wants to hear. Whether this is essentially racist it debatable. Whether it is good for the USA, Politics and the world order generally is not.
1 -
Heh, looks like he's having fun at least.Scrapheap_as_was said:What a pity the Tories are missing the Gauke.
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1201799051227934720?s=20
I wonder whether we've really seen the last of all the defenstrated Tories.0 -
What's amazing with that graphic is I live smack in the middle of the valleys cluster of red seats and even here there are very few Labour signs and mention of Corbyn is scoffed at.MarqueeMark said:
But on Twitter you'd certainly take away the feeling that Labour are doing well and can cause a 2017-style shock.0 -
I'm not claiming that we are the only ones developing technology, indeed that is why I put adapted ahead of adopted precisely because technology is ever changing and getting improved upon.Nigelb said:
We essentially agree, although ...as our science and technology gets adapted and adopted overseas... considerably overstates the matter. Most of the renewable technology is from overseas.Philip_Thompson said:What we do with our emissions will make a negligible impact in the grand scheme of things.
What we do with science and technology can have a mammoth impact worldwide as our science and technology gets adapted and adopted overseas. Especially if we can do it without subsidies because then it is worthwhile for other nations to do the same as us.
We need to continue with what we are doing. We have successfully led the world in sustainable and cheap renewable energy. We have reached a point now where without subsidies new offshore wind farms are cheaper to generate energy than any other form of energy - coal, gas, nuclear or otherwise.
We need to continue encouraging developments like this and then China can think we want cheap energy too, lets copy what the Brits are doing. And then we have a real impact. If we just shoot ourselves in the head, end our emissions unilaterally and import our goods from China we increase not reduce global emissions.
If the world gets to zero emissions, the bulk of that will be from solar, which is (and will continue to be) manufactured largely in China.
Our contribution would be to demonstrate that you can transition to 100% renewables without crashing the economy.
As for solar - that is fantastic for sunny regions like California, the Middle East, Australia etc and basically anywhere that has vast spaces where energy demands peak in the summer thank air conditioning.
We are the polar opposite. Our energy demand peaks in the winter due to heating when solar power is pretty useless. What Germany and us have done in leading the world with cheap and reliable offshore wind is demonstrate an alternative to solar that is suitable for cold and dark climates.1 -
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
Yes - the first privatiser was Bevan, The original concept was that GPs would be state employees, although usually at the local level.Fysics_Teacher said:squareroot2 said:If you read SO every day, you really would think everyone loathed Boris, if you read me, you'd think everyone loathed Corbyn.
Viewpoints on here are not necessarily the views of the electorate.
Then the NHS is already privatised, and has been since it was formed: GPs after all form the backbone of it and they operate just as you have described.OnlyLivingBoy said:
No, it seems you don't. The model of using private firms to provide a regulated public service in combination with state owned entities is exactly the one used in the rail industry, and nobody says that hasn't been privatised, or at least part privatised. Similarly some council services like bin collections.ozymandias said:OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
No. It’s not. It’s using private companies to provide services, based on price, within the umbrella of the NHS.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
It seems you don’t know what “privatisation”actually means and entails.0 -
No. But he remembers grabbing her pussy.nunu2 said:
Does he remember holding her hand?Peter_the_Punter said:
The guy's getting old. His memory is failing. Give him a break. You can't expect him to remember what he said to the previous PM. He probably doesn't even remember who the previous PM was.Theuniondivvie said:
I recommend introducing him to Layla Moran and readying the body bags to take him and his secret service entourage back. 0 -
Labour could be reduced to double-digits and Twitter would still be implying they could win a 1997 landslide.Fenster said:
What's amazing with that graphic is I live smack in the middle of the valleys cluster of red seats and even here there are very few Labour signs and mention of Corbyn is scoffed at.MarqueeMark said:
But on Twitter you'd certainly take away the feeling that Labour are doing well and can cause a 2017-style shock.0 -
In two years? Nah.....IanB2 said:
Swings like that are often demographically driven and likely to continueMarqueeMark said:
The 2017 9.9% swing to Labour was huge. Scope for that to unwind just as decisively?Stocky said:Reading East: Take a look at oddschecker. Can get Evens Labour with Ladbrokes and 15/8 Tories with Betfair Sportsbook.
I`m already big on Lab in that constituency at 15/8 and 2/1 so won`t bet more, but there is considerable disparity of pricing here.
Anyone have any insight?
I think fair chance of a Tory gain.0 -
Us working class Northerners also use the trains to get to work.MarqueeMark said:
And isn't the UK road programme being plundered to pay for those SE rail commuters? What could possibly go wrong electorally......RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*
I pay just shy of £600 for my monthly season ticket.0 -
Overwhelming majority of us working Northerners drive.TheScreamingEagles said:
Us working class Northerners also use the trains to get to work.MarqueeMark said:
And isn't the UK road programme being plundered to pay for those SE rail commuters? What could possibly go wrong electorally......RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*
I pay just shy of £600 for my monthly season ticket.0 -
So labour privatised the NHS?OnlyLivingBoy said:
Sorry, you are wrong. Wikipedia says:ozymandias said:
Sorry. You’re fighting a losing battle. This does not show “privatisation” in the way you want it to be portrayed. Using internal private services under the umbrella of the NHS is not privatisation.OnlyLivingBoy said:
No, it seems you don't. The model of using private firms to provide a regulated public service in combination with state owned entities is exactly the one used in the rail industry, and nobody says that hasn't been privatised, or at least part privatised. Similarly some council services like bin collections.ozymandias said:OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
No. It’s not. It’s using private companies to provide services, based on price, within the umbrella of the NHS.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
It seems you don’t know what “privatisation”actually means and entails.
Now - taking hospitals and selling them to Nuffield Health under a franchise and them being run as Nuffield Health hospitals, with that companies management and control - that’s privatisation.
But that’s not what’s being reported. And basically why you’re wrong.
Privatization (or privatisation in British English) can mean different things including moving something from the public sector into the private sector. ... Government functions and services may also be privatized (which may also be known as "franchising" or "out-sourcing"); in this case, private entities are tasked with the implementation of government programs or performance of government services that had previously been the purview of state-run agencies.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/moment-of-honesty-is-required-new-labour-began-dismantling-of-our-nhs/0 -
I`m still picking up the relative arbitrage, but hitting bookie limits now (ridiculously small).MarqueeMark said:
In two years? Nah.....IanB2 said:
Swings like that are often demographically driven and likely to continueMarqueeMark said:
The 2017 9.9% swing to Labour was huge. Scope for that to unwind just as decisively?Stocky said:Reading East: Take a look at oddschecker. Can get Evens Labour with Ladbrokes and 15/8 Tories with Betfair Sportsbook.
I`m already big on Lab in that constituency at 15/8 and 2/1 so won`t bet more, but there is considerable disparity of pricing here.
Anyone have any insight?
I think fair chance of a Tory gain.
Overall, in Reading East I`m £5 up if Tories win and £130 up if Lab win.
If LibDems win I`m in trouble with the wife.1 -
He's definitely more popular round here than May. People like the ballsy Brexit talk.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?1 -
LOL, £7k a year from Sheffield to Manchester can only be in First.TheScreamingEagles said:
Us working class Northerners also use the trains to get to work.MarqueeMark said:
And isn't the UK road programme being plundered to pay for those SE rail commuters? What could possibly go wrong electorally......RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*
I pay just shy of £600 for my monthly season ticket.
In Corbyn’s Utopia, First will be reserved for Party members only (as seen in the image above), and evil capitalist lawyers will have to travel with the plebs.0 -
Looks like we could be approaching blue line crossover/merging with @RobD 's interesting graph. I hope that graph is used in a thread header at some point it was a great idea and kudos Rob for doing it.0
-
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 40% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
Less than 20%.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 40% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
More polls like Kanter please....
0 -
Wow. We might be quoting that back at you on GE night! I`ve made a note.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
You'll make an absolute fortune in that case. It's impressive that you're able to ignore all the polling.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
That's first class, isn't it? I'm guessing Labour aren't planning to regulate first class fares. In fact, they might abolish first class on some services...TheScreamingEagles said:
Us working class Northerners also use the trains to get to work.MarqueeMark said:
And isn't the UK road programme being plundered to pay for those SE rail commuters? What could possibly go wrong electorally......RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*
I pay just shy of £600 for my monthly season ticket.0 -
It's a very short commute in the Gulag, comrade. Accommodation Block 1 to Workshop 1.Sandpit said:
LOL, £7k a year from Sheffield to Manchester can only be in First.TheScreamingEagles said:
Us working class Northerners also use the trains to get to work.MarqueeMark said:
And isn't the UK road programme being plundered to pay for those SE rail commuters? What could possibly go wrong electorally......RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*
I pay just shy of £600 for my monthly season ticket.
In Corbyn’s Utopia, First will be reserved for Party members only (as seen in the image above), and evil capitalist lawyers will have to travel with the plebs.1 -
Has anybody had any thoughts what the weather forecast for election day could do for turnout and the possible result?
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20191203/06/228/prectypeuktopo.png
If this were to verify we'd see UK wide snow event during a lot of the day..0 -
But back on planet reality, the occasional transaction between state and private sector which is not skewed in the interests of the latter is highly unlikely to trigger market mayhem or "destroy" pension funds. It's project fear. Gets rolled out every time there looks to be even the slimmest chance of a government prepared to do something not deemed "acceptable" under the Thatcher settlement.MarqueeMark said:You nationalize ONE company "at a bit below market value" - and you set off a tidal wave of evacuations of businesses thinking "It could be us next".
And watch how pension funds get destroyed in the process. You know, those pension funds Labour has to plunder to finance its plans....0 -
Apparently in the Kantar , in those under 55 Labour lead by 39 to 36 .
Will be interesting to see what they’ve done with turnout when the tables come out .0 -
Wow, that's confident.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
I'd say 30% based on that YouGov MRP. That looked pretty bleak for Labour and you'd think, from that, the Tories have at least a 60% chance of finishing the GE up by 15 seats.0 -
So three of the mightiest brains on PB.com say chance of a hung parliament is:MarqueeMark said:
Less than 20%.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 40% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
Stocky 40%
Marquee_Mark under 20%
Stark_Dawning 98%
WTF. No wonder the bookies make so much money.0 -
I think people can see that Boris believes in Brexit and sees it as an opportunity for Britain (though to be cynical it's also been a route to power for him), I think people thought May saw Brexit as more of a nuisance that she was obligated to deal with.Fenster said:
He's definitely more popular round here than May. People like the ballsy Brexit talk.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?2 -
That is Olympic podium-finish heavy lifting being done by "If..."Stocky said:
If LibDems win I`m in trouble with the wife.0 -
Yes, it is just over £300 per month for standard class.tlg86 said:
That's first class, isn't it? I'm guessing Labour aren't planning to regulate first class fares. In fact, they might abolish first class on some services...TheScreamingEagles said:
Us working class Northerners also use the trains to get to work.MarqueeMark said:
And isn't the UK road programme being plundered to pay for those SE rail commuters? What could possibly go wrong electorally......RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*
I pay just shy of £600 for my monthly season ticket.
Going for a first class season ticket is the only way to be sure of getting a seat plus I really don't want to rub elbows with plebs.1 -
We have had two (Tory) leaflets...... one, I think hand delivered, one postal. And that's it. There are some Labour posters about and Priti was seen in one road nearby about a week ago.My drinking friend said on Sunday that he'd had a Labour leaflet.MattW said:Anecdata.
My postman (Ashfield) says he had delivered 900 Lab leaflets and 1200 Tory. Think that means individually addressed and in total. My Labour leaflet this morning was printed by Potts Print of Northumberland.
They are still repeating the £500m a week drugs claim.
Postman is sceptical of the Magic Money Forest.
Non post for me today ... just the leaflet and a pizza flyer.
And that's it.0 -
And I'd still like to know what the contingency is for any sort of serious snow event which means people can't get to the polling station in parts of the country, or the Met Office issues "do not travel" advice.topov said:Has anybody had any thoughts what the weather forecast for election day could do for turnout and the possible result?
https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20191203/06/228/prectypeuktopo.png
If this were to verify we'd see UK wide snow event during a lot of the day..0 -
Last time the polling said that Theresa was on course for one of the greatest democratic mandates in global political history. I've said for ages that whatever the polls are indicating it isn't voting intention.Brom said:
You'll make an absolute fortune in that case. It's impressive that you're able to ignore all the polling.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
That is Olympic podium-finish heavy lifting being done by "three of the mightiest brains on PB.com..."Stocky said:
So three of the mightiest brains on PB.com say chance of a hung parliament is:MarqueeMark said:
Less than 20%.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 40% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
Stocky 40%
Marquee_Mark under 20%
Stark_Dawning 98%
WTF. No wonder the bookies make so much money. 0 -
You should be piling money into the market then....cos you will make a fortune.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
I'm certainly still afraid of a hung Parliament, but the rest of your post doesn't ring true. The day the dementia tax dropped was the day I first registered on here as a blue Blue because I knew in my gut that May had doomed herself. There are now 8 full campaigning days left - by this point May had already imploded, and Corbyn was looking like the Second Coming.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
Essentially, the overall campaign scores for 2017 in my estimation were about Con 1/10, Lab 9/10. Now it's perhaps Con 4, Lab 7. Labour's still having a better campaign than the Tories, but the gap is manageable rather than crushing.0 -
Those polls did change during the campaign.Stark_Dawning said:
Last time the polling said that Theresa was on course for one of the greatest democratic mandates in global political history. I've said for ages that whatever the polls are indicating it isn't voting intention.Brom said:
You'll make an absolute fortune in that case. It's impressive that you're able to ignore all the polling.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
Not by this stage of the campaign it didn't.Stark_Dawning said:
Last time the polling said that Theresa was on course for one of the greatest democratic mandates in global political history. I've said for ages that whatever the polls are indicating it isn't voting intention.Brom said:
You'll make an absolute fortune in that case. It's impressive that you're able to ignore all the polling.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?1 -
How much do you stand to win? And is the polling overstating the Tories or understating Labour or both?Stark_Dawning said:
Last time the polling said that Theresa was on course for one of the greatest democratic mandates in global political history. I've said for ages that whatever the polls are indicating it isn't voting intention.Brom said:
You'll make an absolute fortune in that case. It's impressive that you're able to ignore all the polling.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
It's exactly stuff like this which should make you ultra wary of nationalisation. They're not even in power and any pretense that these industries wont be just the play thing of political masters is thrown out the window. If you sacrifice revenue in this way you have to take it from elsewhere. After the announcements and the political applause the interest will move elsewhere and the railways would have lost a chunk of income.TheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/12013816541803520001 -
And I'd say this reflects your out of touch delusions from before the referendum onwards.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
It could definitely happen but 98%? Give me a break. I wouldn't even say 98% chance of a Tory majority and that is much more likely than a hung Parliament.0 -
30% looks like the reasonable answer, if you centre your distribution on the current polls with a bit more tightening by election day based on current trends.Fenster said:
Wow, that's confident.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
I'd say 30% based on that YouGov MRP. That looked pretty bleak for Labour and you'd think, from that, the Tories have at least a 60% chance of finishing the GE up by 15 seats.0 -
Only one more ICM left until the General Election.1
-
I recall, back in the early 90's, colleagues being told not to attend conferences and talk about initiatives 'as other hospitals might copy us and we want to get an advantage.'Nemtynakht said:
So labour privatised the NHS?OnlyLivingBoy said:
Sorry, you are wrong. Wikipedia says:ozymandias said:
Sorry. You’re fighting a losing battle. This does not show “privatisation” in the way you want it to be portrayed. Using internal private services under the umbrella of the NHS is not privatisation.OnlyLivingBoy said:
No, it seems you don't. The model of using private firms to provide a regulated public service in combination with state owned entities is exactly the one used in the rail industry, and nobody says that hasn't been privatised, or at least part privatised. Similarly some council services like bin collections.ozymandias said:OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
No. It’s not. It’s using private companies to provide services, based on price, within the umbrella of the NHS.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
It seems you don’t know what “privatisation”actually means and entails.
Now - taking hospitals and selling them to Nuffield Health under a franchise and them being run as Nuffield Health hospitals, with that companies management and control - that’s privatisation.
But that’s not what’s being reported. And basically why you’re wrong.
Privatization (or privatisation in British English) can mean different things including moving something from the public sector into the private sector. ... Government functions and services may also be privatized (which may also be known as "franchising" or "out-sourcing"); in this case, private entities are tasked with the implementation of government programs or performance of government services that had previously been the purview of state-run agencies.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/moment-of-honesty-is-required-new-labour-began-dismantling-of-our-nhs/0 -
Not 98% hung parliament...TheScreamingEagles said:
I would say for Tories that isn't terrible look. Majority of the public think it is close, compared to last time where they were convinced May was going to smash Jezza even up to polling day.0 -
Well Betfair will give you 3.25 on NOM. Fill yer boots.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.1362973110 -
Gordon Brown destroyed many pension funds and he wasn't anywhere near as dangerous as the Marxists in charge of Labour now.kinabalu said:
But back on planet reality, the occasional transaction between state and private sector which is not skewed in the interests of the latter is highly unlikely to trigger market mayhem or "destroy" pension funds. It's project fear. Gets rolled out every time there looks to be even the slimmest chance of a government prepared to do something not deemed "acceptable" under the Thatcher settlement.MarqueeMark said:You nationalize ONE company "at a bit below market value" - and you set off a tidal wave of evacuations of businesses thinking "It could be us next".
And watch how pension funds get destroyed in the process. You know, those pension funds Labour has to plunder to finance its plans....1 -
Plebs ARE working class, you Tory BoyTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, it is just over £300 per month for standard class.tlg86 said:
That's first class, isn't it? I'm guessing Labour aren't planning to regulate first class fares. In fact, they might abolish first class on some services...TheScreamingEagles said:
Us working class Northerners also use the trains to get to work.MarqueeMark said:
And isn't the UK road programme being plundered to pay for those SE rail commuters? What could possibly go wrong electorally......RobD said:
In a move the party said would save the average commuter more than £1,000 a year, the Labour leader vowed to would bring in the 33% reduction for regular fares across EnglandTheScreamingEagles said:This makes me tempted to vote for Corbyn, but then I think he's a Tory melt, why only a third, if he was true Labour in the mould of Attlee then rail travel should be free at the point of use.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1201381654180352000
Doesn't the average commuter drive to work? *innocent face*
I pay just shy of £600 for my monthly season ticket.
Going for a first class season ticket is the only way to be sure of getting a seat plus I really don't want to rub elbows with plebs.
0 -
Jezza facing a rigorous interrogation from Philip Schofield and Holly Willoughby on This Morning. First subject terrorism.0
-
God I hope the 10% who think we're headed for a Labour majority get on Betfair.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not 98% hung parliament...TheScreamingEagles said:
I would say for Tories that isn't terrible look. Enough of the public think it is close, compared to last time where they were convinced May was going to smash Jezza even up to polling day.1 -
1 in 25 voters out there think we're looking at a Labour majority of more than 50.TheScreamingEagles said:
Bold.... (or certifiable).0 -
Is Philip waving around some secret list on a bit of paper he got off twitter? That is normally what he does right?Brom said:Jezza facing a rigorous interrogation from Philip Schofield and Holly Willoughby on This Morning. First subject terrorism.
0 -
77.567% of statistics are made up on the spot...Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
Unfortunately, I have a feeling they are probably very young and don't have much money...TheScreamingEagles said:
God I hope the 10% who think we're headed for a Labour majority get on Betfair.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not 98% hung parliament...TheScreamingEagles said:
I would say for Tories that isn't terrible look. Enough of the public think it is close, compared to last time where they were convinced May was going to smash Jezza even up to polling day.0 -
My God, if that 10% Con Lead remains a resistance level instead of breaking...MarqueeMark said:
Too soon yet, might just be sampling noise, but a 1.5% swing Labour to Cons over this point in 2017. Anecdotally, that is markedly higher in the Midlands and the North.nunu2 said:
Wow. A clear difference now emerging from 2017RobD said:
Here you go - https://imgur.com/u09yE86Pulpstar said:
Where's that @RobD chart comparing this time to last time ?llef said:The poll put support for the Conservatives at 44%, up one point from a week earlier, while Labour was unchanged on 32%. The pro-European Union Liberal Democrats were up one point on 15%, while the Brexit Party was down one point on 2%.
Kantar surveyed 1,096 people online between Nov. 28 and Dec. 2.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-kantar/conservatives-widen-poll-lead-over-labour-to-12-points-kantar-poll-idUKKBN1Y70PQ?il=0
Trying desperately not to get my hopes up. Failing.0 -
Arguably, an even better bet would be to look at the "Next Government" market with Betfair. You can get 16.5 on Tory Minority and 8.6 on Labour Minority.Sandpit said:
Well Betfair will give you 3.25 on NOM. Fill yer boots.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.136297311
Goodness knows why it is thought that a Lab minority is more likely than a Tory minority.0 -
They did a bit, the Tories have done a whole lot more. Personally I am not averse to a degree of private involvement as long as it delivers genuine efficiencies and doesn't just shaft low paid workers or cut corners on care. I think people like Raab want to go a whole lot further than that and it is absolutely right for Labour to point that out.Nemtynakht said:
So labour privatised the NHS?OnlyLivingBoy said:
Sorry, you are wrong. Wikipedia says:ozymandias said:
Sorry. You’re fighting a losing battle. This does not show “privatisation” in the way you want it to be portrayed. Using internal private services under the umbrella of the NHS is not privatisation.OnlyLivingBoy said:
No, it seems you don't. The model of using private firms to provide a regulated public service in combination with state owned entities is exactly the one used in the rail industry, and nobody says that hasn't been privatised, or at least part privatised. Similarly some council services like bin collections.ozymandias said:OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
No. It’s not. It’s using private companies to provide services, based on price, within the umbrella of the NHS.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Of course it is.ozymandias said:
That’s not privatisation.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1201780873051484160
It's not even funny anymore, they just lie and lie
It seems you don’t know what “privatisation”actually means and entails.
Now - taking hospitals and selling them to Nuffield Health under a franchise and them being run as Nuffield Health hospitals, with that companies management and control - that’s privatisation.
But that’s not what’s being reported. And basically why you’re wrong.
Privatization (or privatisation in British English) can mean different things including moving something from the public sector into the private sector. ... Government functions and services may also be privatized (which may also be known as "franchising" or "out-sourcing"); in this case, private entities are tasked with the implementation of government programs or performance of government services that had previously been the purview of state-run agencies.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/ournhs/moment-of-honesty-is-required-new-labour-began-dismantling-of-our-nhs/0 -
I make it 78.369%Sunil_Prasannan said:
77.567% of statistics are made up on the spot...Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?0 -
I think it is pretty clear, the result of this election will come down to how the Lib Dems do in the end. Tories appear locked in at 42%, when the Tories get a big lead it is because the Lib Dems are doing ok.1
-
Terrifying. Anyone who doesn't want a Corbyn government must vote Tory.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I somehow think this election is whimpering out rather than thundering around. One of the implications of it being in Dec. People focusing on Xmas and stuff more than an election out there.BluerBlue said:
My God, if that 10% Con Lead remains a resistance level instead of breaking...MarqueeMark said:
Too soon yet, might just be sampling noise, but a 1.5% swing Labour to Cons over this point in 2017. Anecdotally, that is markedly higher in the Midlands and the North.nunu2 said:
Wow. A clear difference now emerging from 2017RobD said:
Here you go - https://imgur.com/u09yE86Pulpstar said:
Where's that @RobD chart comparing this time to last time ?llef said:The poll put support for the Conservatives at 44%, up one point from a week earlier, while Labour was unchanged on 32%. The pro-European Union Liberal Democrats were up one point on 15%, while the Brexit Party was down one point on 2%.
Kantar surveyed 1,096 people online between Nov. 28 and Dec. 2.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-kantar/conservatives-widen-poll-lead-over-labour-to-12-points-kantar-poll-idUKKBN1Y70PQ?il=0
Trying desperately not to get my hopes up. Failing.
I wouldn't be suprised to see a rather lower level of turnout.0 -
That should be the what the Tories send out as their next targeted ad campaign on social media....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Bigger landing strip for that to occur.Stocky said:
Arguably, an even better bet would be to look at the "Next Government" market with Betfair. You can get 16.5 on Tory Minority and 8.6 on Labour Minority.Sandpit said:
Well Betfair will give you 3.25 on NOM. Fill yer boots.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.136297311
Goodness knows why it is thought that a Lab minority is more likely than a Tory minority.
Tory minority can only really exist with DUP and/or Lib Dem abstentions.
Lab minority can exist with SNP+PC+Green support and Lib Dem support and/or abstentions.
The bell curve of seat distributions probably has any exact seat combo more likely within Tory minority but collectively Lab minority is much more likely than Tory minority.0 -
It's because the Tories are Johny No Friends, especially since shafting the DUP.Stocky said:
Arguably, an even better bet would be to look at the "Next Government" market with Betfair. You can get 16.5 on Tory Minority and 8.6 on Labour Minority.Sandpit said:
Well Betfair will give you 3.25 on NOM. Fill yer boots.Stark_Dawning said:
I'd say there's a 98% chance of a hung parliament.Stocky said:
Give Fenster a percentage then. I said 45% chance.Stark_Dawning said:
Absolutely. A hung parliament always seemed the most likely outcome to me. This time in 2017 they were erecting giant effigies of Theresa on the cliffs of Dover. The only thing that's changed since then is Theresa being replaced with Boris. What can he do that she couldn't?Fenster said:Does anybody here still genuinely think Labour can win enough seats to force a hung parliament?
And at what percentage do you rate the possibility of a hung parliament?
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28265958/market?marketId=1.136297311
Goodness knows why it is thought that a Lab minority is more likely than a Tory minority.0 -
If it comes to it the DUP will answer the phone to Johnson and make demands. They won't reject his call, Sturgeon would that's the bigger problem.Peter_the_Punter said:It's because the Tories are Johny No Friends, especially since shafting the DUP.
0 -
… or LibDem, SNP, Plaid Cymru, Green, Independent, Brexit depending on your constituency.Philip_Thompson said:
Terrifying. Anyone who doesn't want a Corbyn government must vote Tory.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Anyone else planning on being up for Skinner? The trouble is that in deference to the old boy, who's pushing 88 years of age, I suspect they'll hold over the Bolsover count until the Friday morning.1
-
Isnt that Corbyn?FrancisUrquhart said:
Is Philip waving around some secret list on a bit of paper he got off twitter? That is normally what he does right?Brom said:Jezza facing a rigorous interrogation from Philip Schofield and Holly Willoughby on This Morning. First subject terrorism.
0
