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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 betting update: Punters slightly less certain about a C
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 betting update: Punters slightly less certain about a CON majority
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(Well, I can always hope
I wouldn't be surprised if we got a hung Parliament.
https://twitter.com/willgoring/status/1201058101790687233?s=20
Perhaps HYUFD can confirm if 'Vote Labour & lose your house' is an actual doorstep strategy?
https://twitter.com/FT/status/1201503314560659457?s=20
Mind you the Tories getting 380 seats wouldn't surprise me either.
I just can't read this election at all. Surprisingly in the town centre over the weekend the only party with a stand was the BXP when previously both Labour and the Tories always have had.
Labour did call yesterday and Boris sent me a letter today about my Postal Vote. That really should have arrived last week so I don't know who screwed up there.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50628644
So we can borrow a bit more to have a No Deal Brexit and trash our economy, or we can borrow a bit less to have Labour's investment in a green New Deal.
more bribes - that should do it
Conservatives 42%. That is +1% from a week ago
Labour 35%. Also +1% from a week ago
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/politics-news-pmn/uk-pm-johnsons-conservatives-maintain-7-point-lead-over-labour-icm-poll
In other desperate times calls for desperate lies stories
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1201405441537970181
Stake 57.14% on Labour to win Reading East at 2.25 (5/4) with SkyBet or Laddies and the remaining 42.86% of your stake on the Tories to win the same seat at 3.0 (2/1) with Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook, to earn a profit margin of 28.57% in 11 days' time on your total stake, irrespective of whichever of these parties wins the seat.
Has to beat working for a living!
As ever, DYOR
Personally I'd want a little longer than that even though the Labour candidate looks impressive.
CON: 42% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDM: 13% (=)
BXP: 3% (-1)
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec.
Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
- no one votes LAB in Scotland now
- everyone votes LAB in London and SE now!
1 Brexit Party Bassetlaw
2 Tory N E Derbyshire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqrg_VCPgAQ
Or maybe it will have to be SuperLayla.
And APNI. And PC (our new special friends)
"the Secret Barrister tweeted: "The Prime Minister has basically copied and pasted my blogpost into a thread and passed it off as his own explanation.
"A blogpost which I had to write to rebut the lies he spent yesterday spouting. This is weapons grade s***housery."
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnsons-tweets-about-london-bridge-copied-and-pasted-from-blog-11876300
Great free money tip.
Something Labour does not want to spend money on
If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Also, I’m still waiting for you to enlighten me on these “other schemes” for innovators you confidently asserted on the previous thread.
The question is now what methodological differences ICM has to other polls, so we can assess their relative claims. Can anyone provide a helpful summary?
it is likely to be the first of the 'key LAB leave' eats to declare. If we don't win this then Boris is up the road, we can then only hope to get enough to stop LAB/SNP but without Darlington we are sub 320 and possibly sub 305
Javid offered a lot here without realising that the things they have offered actually hurt and annoy their core voters more than the ones they are trying to attract.
The imperfection of their plans is always owing to sabotage, or deviation from the true belief, and nothing to do with any inherent flaws in the project...
If both of these go Blue I suspect a decent Tory majority is in store, if only one does then a small Con majority and if neither than it'll be a hung parliament.
Nasty Party One 5/6
Nasty Party Two EVS
Nasty Party Three 66/1
Jo Swinson’s Candidate 100/1
Nasty Party Four 150/1
Greens 300/1
So basically 1-20 they'll come third or worse there. Sold for £40 a point. They've revised it to 0.1 now.
At which my wife, not normally noted for coming forward on these occasions said "I hope that dreadful Boris doesn't get in!'
Shock, horror, then another lady said "Hear hear."
After which the Tory lady shut up.
BoJo was grilled by Marr an hour later who said the Cons didn't make any changes to the law they said was so lacking and Boris just sat there and waffled like a stunned twat. He did not explain that the Cons had indeed made a change to the law to address the issue.
(Chris Philp I think did very well today on PL making the same point as Lewis made and Johnson failed to make.)
But it's obvious Johnson's handlers understand and hence the long twitter thread. And now what? The Secret Barrister is complaining both that Johnson told a pack of lies about it all and at the same time that Johnson used his own (the Secret Barrister's) twitter thread to clarify the situation.
Boris is still promising 20,000 police officers (anywhere in the UK) while Labour are promising to return the 471 who have left since 2010. And Durham isn't a big police force.