I think this is a tad unfair: I think most people who voted to leave did so for non-economic reasons. I know a few - "sovereignty" and "bringing back control" comes up a lot. They would have voted leave even if they thought that UK would suffer economically.
Absolutely. Brexit is an Identity Project. Hence it's power. People don't get all worked up about "X points off GDP over 15 years". They DO get worked up about feeling 'dissed' and disrespected.
Those that voted Remain think that Leavers are being reckless with the economy. It may be worth entertaining the thought that Remainers are being similarly reckless by putting remaining in the EU ahead of the economic disaster that Corbyn and co would inflict by trashing the public finances. I voted Remain for pragmatic reasons (a very reluctant remainer). I understand those who voted leave, though I don`t agree with them. The group that I do not understand is those who enthusiastically want to remain. They never seem to give clear reasons for their enthusiasm other than a vague "we should be internationalists".
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
Conservative poll watchers will be happy about their vote share. The bit they shouldn't be too happy about is the way the Labour one also keeps continuing to rise.
At this rate, Labour will finish in the high 30's (at least).
This tallies with everything I'm seeing, hearing and picking up. Labour voters are eshewing the elitist top tories and coming home.
Conservative poll watchers will be happy about their vote share. The bit they shouldn't be too happy about is the way the Labour one also keeps continuing to rise.
At this rate, Labour will finish in the high 30's (at least).
This tallies with everything I'm seeing, hearing and picking up. Labour voters are eshewing the elitist top tories and coming home.
Actually at this rate labour would be on 36 in the final ICM poll. Everything I'm seeing hearing and picking up suggests labour are going to get their arses handed to them next week
Johnson was definitely all over the show on the extended sentences/automatic release thing. A snapshot does it for me - Brandon Lewis appeared on Pienaar at 9am yesterday and explained clearly the various law changes by whom and when, including the Cons' change in late 2012. BoJo was grilled by Marr an hour later who said the Cons didn't make any changes to the law they said was so lacking and Boris just sat there and waffled like a stunned twat. He did not explain that the Cons had indeed made a change to the law to address the issue. (Chris Philp I think did very well today on PL making the same point as Lewis made and Johnson failed to make.) But it's obvious Johnson's handlers understand and hence the long twitter thread. And now what? The Secret Barrister is complaining both that Johnson told a pack of lies about it all and at the same time that Johnson used his own (the Secret Barrister's) twitter thread to clarify the situation.
FCO officials used to complain bitterly that Boris never read his briefs, IIRC.
Indeed. I have a friend who thinks it's because he's dyslexic. I've seen no evidence for that. I prefer the view that he's a lazy good-for-nothing narcissist who is totally unsuited for this job, as he was at the Foreign Office.
Has anyone got any (preferably informed) views on whether the Greens or Labour will come second in Isle of Wight? The YouGov MRP has Labour slightly ahead of the Greens, but the betting is the other way round.
Curious as to why you ask. Have you found someone to let you do each way constituency betting ?
Conservative poll watchers will be happy about their vote share. The bit they shouldn't be too happy about is the way the Labour one also keeps continuing to rise.
At this rate, Labour will finish in the high 30's (at least).
This tallies with everything I'm seeing, hearing and picking up. Labour voters are eshewing the elitist top tories and coming home.
Indeed. I have a friend who thinks it's because he's dyslexic. I've seen no evidence for that. I prefer the view that he's a lazy good-for-nothing narcissist who is totally unsuited for this job, as he was at the Foreign Office.
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
That's useful, as there was a suspicion that the previous finding was an outlier, and/or that the London Bridge attacks might have some unpredictable effect. (For what it's worth, my opinion is that people are right not to change their votes either way because of a single terrorist incident, horrible though it was.)
The question is now what methodological differences ICM has to other polls, so we can assess their relative claims. Can anyone provide a helpful summary?
The issue with the London Bridge attack is not the effect of the incident, but the effect of the behaviour of the politicians, especially Johnson but also some Labour people, in the aftermath. Purely anecdotally I am surprised at how much the comments of the victim's family seem to have penetrated the public mind and resonated. I will be interested to see if it impacts on either or both of Conservative and Labour ratings when the first polls appear which were conducted after this furore. It does confirm one thing. The belief in Conservative HQ that Boris could not go through an election campaign without at least one moment equivalent to the dementia tax or fox hunting was right. It just remains to be seen if the public opinion of him was so low that even this crass behaviour will go unpunished.
Total non story. PM stated facts as posted by someone else. The story is that the someone else is a Guardian contributor crying foul when there has been no foul.
PM spouts a load of self-serving bollox about the criminal justice system. Gets corrected by an expert. Plagiarizes the corrected version as his own. It's low and it's tacky. However I do agree with you that it is not a story. It's not a story because it is what we have come to expect from the risible "Boris". The story will be when he surprises on the upside. When he does that, oh boy - stop the clocks, light the beacons, bang the big bass drum, and hold the front page.
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We are now in the world where the 2 possible Government options are:-
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England. Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
Has anyone got any (preferably informed) views on whether the Greens or Labour will come second in Isle of Wight? The YouGov MRP has Labour slightly ahead of the Greens, but the betting is the other way round.
Curious as to why you ask. Have you found someone to let you do each way constituency betting ?
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
That's useful, as there was a suspicion that the previous finding was an outlier, and/or that the London Bridge attacks might have some unpredictable effect. (For what it's worth, my opinion is that people are right not to change their votes either way because of a single terrorist incident, horrible though it was.)
The question is now what methodological differences ICM has to other polls, so we can assess their relative claims. Can anyone provide a helpful summary?
The issue with the London Bridge attack is not the effect of the incident, but the effect of the behaviour of the politicians, especially Johnson but also some Labour people, in the aftermath. Purely anecdotally I am surprised at how much the comments of the victim's family seem to have penetrated the public mind and resonated. I will be interested to see if it impacts on either or both of Conservative and Labour ratings when the first polls appear which were conducted after this furore. It does confirm one thing. The belief in Conservative HQ that Boris could not go through an election campaign without at least one moment equivalent to the dementia tax or fox hunting was right. It just remains to be seen if the public opinion of him was so low that even this crass behaviour will go unpunished.
How do you know it's a moment similar to the dementia tax or fox hunting equivalents? That's impossible to ascertain unless you know the minds of millions of individual voters, and how they are going to actually vote.
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
Big two disappearing away over the horizon from the LibDems......
7 points - are you getting worried Marquee_Mark?
The key is the midlands and the north leave seats
And I'm finding it hard to read. Last week Darlington was probably a clear Tory win - I'm not so sure now...
Darlington is a nailed on blue gain. Labours extra votes arent leavers, they are southern soft lib dems who have realised Swinson is a dud
As I said - sat here in the constituency I'm not so sure it was the surefire Tory gain, I thought it was last week. Javid offered a lot here without realising that the things they have offered actually hurt and annoy their core voters more than the ones they are trying to attract.
That neatly sums up the Tories' problem - Get Brexit Done brings together a diverse electoral coalition that has nothing else in common so any attempt to make extra offers is counter-productive. If they've now max squeezed BXP they have no way of going any higher. I still think a Tory maj is on the cards because Lab have neglected the post-industrial Brexity seats for too long but very hard to call right now.
Anecdote. Start of this campaign my tory-voting sister tore into me for my diatribes about Boris. She told me she likes him. On Sunday she told me that she thinks I'm right about the NHS and that Johnson is "as bad as Corbyn." The idea that Johnson has in any shape or form had a good campaign is risible.
He is in PRECISELY the same situation as May. Polls in his favour, complete mare of a campaign, holding tight and hoping he can pull it off. Perhaps he will, perhaps he won't; my NOM bet looking better by the day.
So basically 1-20 they'll come third or worse there. Sold for £40 a point. They've revised it to 0.1 now.
Sorry to ask but what does 'Constituency X Labour at 0.5' mean or is there a brief online description? Neither main spread betting co. seems to define all the terms on their site. I'm experienced with fixed odds but not on the spreads.
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
Big two disappearing away over the horizon from the LibDems......
They are going to be down seats at this rate, certainly down from what they had at the end of the Parliament. @Richard_Nabavi is going to be exceptionally smug.
We may be overdoing the LibDem collapse. If they get 13% of the vote it will still be well over 50% more than they got last time. The key thing, of course, is where they get it. But if it does go down further, it will probably be Labour that benefits. Johnson has done all he can to make the Tories as repellant as possible to 2017 Labour voters. All he has going for him now is that Corbyn has also successfully toxified Labour. I don't know how it could be measured but this election may well be the one in which the most votes ever are cast negatively.
Has anyone got any (preferably informed) views on whether the Greens or Labour will come second in Isle of Wight? The YouGov MRP has Labour slightly ahead of the Greens, but the betting is the other way round.
Curious as to why you ask. Have you found someone to let you do each way constituency betting ?
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We are now in the world where the 2 possible Government options are:-
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England. Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
Good point and a fair one. I'm sure Cameron made a big election issue out of Miliband being propped up by the SNP, and it paid big dividends.
Has anyone got any (preferably informed) views on whether the Greens or Labour will come second in Isle of Wight? The YouGov MRP has Labour slightly ahead of the Greens, but the betting is the other way round.
Curious as to why you ask. Have you found someone to let you do each way constituency betting ?
I don’t see the constituency for Labour coming second on the IoW, whilst there is a strong hippie/alternative movement that goes for the Greens.
I would be surprised if it is even close. Friends who live there tell me that Lowthion is well liked and regarded even by other parties members and has been quietly building her base. She will not win but should move her vote % over 25%.
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
Big two disappearing away over the horizon from the LibDems......
7 points - are you getting worried Marquee_Mark?
The key is the midlands and the north leave seats
And I'm finding it hard to read. Last week Darlington was probably a clear Tory win - I'm not so sure now...
Darlington is a nailed on blue gain.
It really is not.
I am picking up plenty of evidence of Labour voters, yes ones up north, coming home.
I actually think the NHS is a HUGE issue for voters at the moment ...
Dec 12th was always a high risk strategy. Not much money. Cold weather. Dark days. Lots of sniffles. NHS creaking. Transport problems.
Brexit? Hardly hearing it mentioned.
Per survation the undecideds are disproportionately female, and female voters rank the NHS above Brexit as the key issue.
And are undecideds also disproportionately 2017 Lab voters? (I'm sure that was the case a week or so ago, don't know if still so) They are also likely to prioritise the NHS.
Anecdote. Start of this campaign my tory-voting sister tore into me for my diatribes about Boris. She told me she likes him. On Sunday she told me that she thinks I'm right about the NHS and that Johnson is "as bad as Corbyn." The idea that Johnson has in any shape or form had a good campaign is risible.
He is in PRECISELY the same situation as May. Polls in his favour, complete mare of a campaign, holding tight and hoping he can pull it off. Perhaps he will, perhaps he won't; my NOM bet looking better by the day.
More people think the Tories have had the better campaign than labour per the polling
Indeed. I have a friend who thinks it's because he's dyslexic. I've seen no evidence for that. I prefer the view that he's a lazy good-for-nothing narcissist who is totally unsuited for this job, as he was at the Foreign Office.
Yep that rings true.
Given his academic record and his age I think it highly unlikely he's dyslexic, as generally understood. I think he suspect that he might on the spectrum, but generally he's as described by Ms Rose. He has, I think been spectacularly lucky in his friends.
So basically 1-20 they'll come third or worse there. Sold for £40 a point. They've revised it to 0.1 now.
Sorry to ask but what does 'Constituency X Labour at 0.5' mean or is there a brief online description? Neither main spread betting co. seems to define all the terms on their site. I'm experienced with fixed odds but not on the spreads.
£20 if Labour come third or worse, lose £400 if they're second and £1000 if they win.
I wouldn't recommend a sell like that in too many constituencies but Banff Buchan is as close to Labour coming absolubtely nowhere as a near certainty as you're going to get.
However degraded our politics, we've some way to go before getting down to Trump's level. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/30/us/politics/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html ...Chief Petty Officer Edward Gallagher and other Navy SEALs gave the young captive medical aid that day in Iraq in 2017, sedating him and cutting an airway in his throat to help him breathe. Then, without warning, according to colleagues, Chief Gallagher pulled a small hunting knife from a sheath and stabbed the sedated captive in the neck. The same Chief Gallagher who later posed for a photograph holding the dead captive up by the hair has now been celebrated on the campaign trail by President Trump...
So we can borrow a bit more to have a No Deal Brexit and trash our economy, or we can borrow a bit less to have Labour's investment in a green New Deal.
Question? Once we've spent all that money having trashed the economy how do we pay it back as the economy is still trashed?
In other desperate times calls for desperate lies stories
The Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party are FAV in just 8 of the country’s 59 seats (just under 14%). All are currently Tory-held. Con price, shortest to longest: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 1/4 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 1/4 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 4/9 Dumfries and Galloway 4/6 Banff and Buchan 4/5 East Renfrewshire 17/20 Moray 17/20 Gordon 10/11 In the remaining 5 Tory-held seats, the SNP are FAV. Here are the Con prices, shortest to longest: Aberdeen South (incumbent sacked) EVS Ochil and South Perthshire 6/5 Angus 13/10 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (incumbent retired) 6/4 Stirling 11/4 I consider those first four (Berwickshire to Galloway) to be fantastic prices. I just cannot see the Tories losing any of them, unless something truly astonishing happens in the final week. That Dumfries and Galloway price of 4/6 deserves special mention. I haven’t heard a peep from Banff & Buchan, so your guess is as good as mine. East Renfrewshire ought to be rock-solid Tory, but their worry here is the large residual SLab vote (14,346), which could swing strongly SNP. Ditto Aberdeen South (SLab vote 9,143), Ochil (SLab vote 10,847) and Ayr (SLab vote 11,024). Punters beware in Angus, Moray and Gordon. This is far, far too risky for the uniformed. I hear that local Labour members in Stirling are out asking their supporters to vote Con this time. Can’t see them getting much time on the doorsteps. The local Tory MP is a pillock of the highest order, and they’ll get expelled from the party if London catches them. DYOR
Anecdote. Start of this campaign my tory-voting sister tore into me for my diatribes about Boris. She told me she likes him. On Sunday she told me that she thinks I'm right about the NHS and that Johnson is "as bad as Corbyn." The idea that Johnson has in any shape or form had a good campaign is risible.
He is in PRECISELY the same situation as May. Polls in his favour, complete mare of a campaign, holding tight and hoping he can pull it off. Perhaps he will, perhaps he won't; my NOM bet looking better by the day.
More people think the Tories have had the better campaign than labour per the polling
The Tories started on 40+%. The fact they are still there doesn't tell you anything about the strength of their campaign it just says who they are willing to vote for.
Anecdote. Start of this campaign my tory-voting sister tore into me for my diatribes about Boris. She told me she likes him. On Sunday she told me that she thinks I'm right about the NHS and that Johnson is "as bad as Corbyn." The idea that Johnson has in any shape or form had a good campaign is risible.
He is in PRECISELY the same situation as May. Polls in his favour, complete mare of a campaign, holding tight and hoping he can pull it off. Perhaps he will, perhaps he won't; my NOM bet looking better by the day.
Totally agree.
I didn't bet on NOM but when Labour were polling mid 20's% I came in on them above 200 seats at good odds which I'm really happy about and also a side bet on Labour above 250 which I don't think is impossible.
Thought long and hard about how to bet on this election and, apart from turnout (I'm on below 65% and below 60%) that was the way I felt comfortable for my mainstay betting.
It's basically another way of saying NOM and I think it's the likely outcome.
Someone posted about the LibDems. Totally agree. Even 13% would be a good result in a General Election, virtually doubling the vote share and possibly the number of seats too - with some decapitations in the mix.
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
That's useful, as there was a suspicion that the previous finding was an outlier, and/or that the London Bridge attacks might have some unpredictable effect. (For what it's worth, my opinion is that people are right not to change their votes either way because of a single terrorist incident, horrible though it was.)
The question is now what methodological differences ICM has to other polls, so we can assess their relative claims. Can anyone provide a helpful summary?
The issue with the London Bridge attack is not the effect of the incident, but the effect of the behaviour of the politicians, especially Johnson but also some Labour people, in the aftermath. Purely anecdotally I am surprised at how much the comments of the victim's family seem to have penetrated the public mind and resonated. I will be interested to see if it impacts on either or both of Conservative and Labour ratings when the first polls appear which were conducted after this furore. It does confirm one thing. The belief in Conservative HQ that Boris could not go through an election campaign without at least one moment equivalent to the dementia tax or fox hunting was right. It just remains to be seen if the public opinion of him was so low that even this crass behaviour will go unpunished.
How do you know it's a moment similar to the dementia tax or fox hunting equivalents? That's impossible to ascertain unless you know the minds of millions of individual voters, and how they are going to actually vote.
The stupidity of his behaviour, and the response he has received (being even worse coming from bereaved parents) is just as stupid but, as I say, we will not know the cost (if any) until later polls. You do not need to be a genius (or know the minds of millions) to recognise that being publicly attacked by grieving parents for behaving in an inappropriate and obnoxious way is not a good thing.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
Anecdote. Start of this campaign my tory-voting sister tore into me for my diatribes about Boris. She told me she likes him. On Sunday she told me that she thinks I'm right about the NHS and that Johnson is "as bad as Corbyn." The idea that Johnson has in any shape or form had a good campaign is risible.
He is in PRECISELY the same situation as May. Polls in his favour, complete mare of a campaign, holding tight and hoping he can pull it off. Perhaps he will, perhaps he won't; my NOM bet looking better by the day.
More people think the Tories have had the better campaign than labour per the polling
The Tories started on 40+%. The fact they are still there doesn't tell you anything about the strength of their campaign it just says who they are willing to vote for.
The question of who has had the best campaign was polled and released this weekend (survation I think), tories led 30 to 25 from memory but led nonetheless
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
Big two disappearing away over the horizon from the LibDems......
7 points - are you getting worried Marquee_Mark?
The key is the midlands and the north leave seats
And I'm finding it hard to read. Last week Darlington was probably a clear Tory win - I'm not so sure now...
Darlington is a nailed on blue gain. Labours extra votes arent leavers, they are southern soft lib dems who have realised Swinson is a dud
As I said - sat here in the constituency I'm not so sure it was the surefire Tory gain, I thought it was last week. Javid offered a lot here without realising that the things they have offered actually hurt and annoy their core voters more than the ones they are trying to attract.
That neatly sums up the Tories' problem - Get Brexit Done brings together a diverse electoral coalition that has nothing else in common so any attempt to make extra offers is counter-productive. If they've now max squeezed BXP they have no way of going any higher. I still think a Tory maj is on the cards because Lab have neglected the post-industrial Brexity seats for too long but very hard to call right now.
Labour's only been in power for 33% of the post-1979 period. Thatcher and Co have run the country for 67% of the time. That woman began the policy shift from a mixed economy to raw capitalism and this has led to today's unhappy mess.
So we can borrow a bit more to have a No Deal Brexit and trash our economy, or we can borrow a bit less to have Labour's investment in a green New Deal.
Question? Once we've spent all that money having trashed the economy how do we pay it back as the economy is still trashed?
In other desperate times calls for desperate lies stories
Next week: "'L' is for 'Labour'. 'L' is for Lice."
That twitter account is massively untrustworthy. It is constantly claiming "exclusive" this and that, as if he is some proper journalist with inside info, when it is just some random bloke and 99% of it is utter BS. I honestly have no idea why people quote it.
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
Big two disappearing away over the horizon from the LibDems......
7 points - are you getting worried Marquee_Mark?
The key is the midlands and the north leave seats
And I'm finding it hard to read. Last week Darlington was probably a clear Tory win - I'm not so sure now...
Darlington is a nailed on blue gain. Labours extra votes arent leavers, they are southern soft lib dems who have realised Swinson is a dud
Darlington is the Basildon/Nuneaton of 2019
it is likely to be the first of the 'key LAB leave' eats to declare. If we don't win this then Boris is up the road, we can then only hope to get enough to stop LAB/SNP but without Darlington we are sub 320 and possibly sub 305
Darlington - best prices Nasty Party One 5/6 Nasty Party Two EVS Nasty Party Three 66/1 Jo Swinson’s Candidate 100/1 Nasty Party Four 150/1 Greens 300/1
Having just gone through all the campaign leaflets we've received (and it's a fair few already as I have a postal vote) the only party to have ever mentioned Brexit is the Tories. And even that is to get it done so we can move on to other things.
Boris is still promising 20,000 police officers (anywhere in the UK) while Labour are promising to return the 471 who have left since 2010. And Durham isn't a big police force.
I’m not surprised that all the parties are ignoring Brexit. It is just so deeply depressing. Unforced errors always are.
The stupidity of his behaviour, and the response he has received (being even worse coming from bereaved parents) is just as stupid but, as I say, we will not know the cost (if any) until later polls. You do not need to be a genius (or know the minds of millions) to recognise that being publicly attacked by grieving parents for behaving in an inappropriate and obnoxious way is not a good thing.
Cons want the narrative very specifically to be the country not safe in Lab's hands. Hence if any of his early release stuff hits home it will be job done. Lab's The Tories have ruined everything, meanwhile, is a general charge and might be lumped in with everything else they believe the Cons are ruining.
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We are now in the world where the 2 possible Government options are:-
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England. Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
Good point and a fair one. I'm sure Cameron made a big election issue out of Miliband being propped up by the SNP, and it paid big dividends.
Occasional Labour governments are what have kept Scotland in the Union. But since Labour have collapsed in Scotland it makes it almost impossible for Labour to form a government, not least because fear of the SNP 'wagging the dog' makes it much harder for Labour to win in E&W. So absent a meaningful SLab recovery I think Scottish independence is inevitable.
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
Big two disappearing away over the horizon from the LibDems......
7 points - are you getting worried Marquee_Mark?
The key is the midlands and the north leave seats
And I'm finding it hard to read. Last week Darlington was probably a clear Tory win - I'm not so sure now...
Darlington is a nailed on blue gain. Labours extra votes arent leavers, they are southern soft lib dems who have realised Swinson is a dud
As I said - sat here in the constituency I'm not so sure it was the surefire Tory gain, I thought it was last week. Javid offered a lot here without realising that the things they have offered actually hurt and annoy their core voters more than the ones they are trying to attract.
That neatly sums up the Tories' problem - Get Brexit Done brings together a diverse electoral coalition that has nothing else in common so any attempt to make extra offers is counter-productive. If they've now max squeezed BXP they have no way of going any higher. I still think a Tory maj is on the cards because Lab have neglected the post-industrial Brexity seats for too long but very hard to call right now.
Labour's only been in power for 33% of the post-1979 period. Thatcher and Co have run the country for 67% of the time. That woman began the policy shift from a mixed economy to raw capitalism and this has led to today's unhappy mess.
This site is becoming unreadable for me. I don't mind activist posters as long as they are upfront with their loyalties and don't unreasonably spam. Some of our new posters are taking the Mickey. That's before you get into the dubious content.
Via @ICMResearch, 29 Nov-2 Dec. Changes w/ 22-25 Nov.
Big two disappearing away over the horizon from the LibDems......
7 points - are you getting worried Marquee_Mark?
The key is the midlands and the north leave seats
And I'm finding it hard to read. Last week Darlington was probably a clear Tory win - I'm not so sure now...
Darlington is a nailed on blue gain. Labours extra votes arent leavers, they are southern soft lib dems who have realised Swinson is a dud
Darlington is the Basildon/Nuneaton of 2019
it is likely to be the first of the 'key LAB leave' eats to declare. If we don't win this then Boris is up the road, we can then only hope to get enough to stop LAB/SNP but without Darlington we are sub 320 and possibly sub 305
Darlington - best prices Nasty Party One 5/6 Nasty Party Two EVS Nasty Party Three 66/1 Jo Swinson’s Candidate 100/1 Nasty Party Four 150/1 Greens 300/1
Having just gone through all the campaign leaflets we've received (and it's a fair few already as I have a postal vote) the only party to have ever mentioned Brexit is the Tories. And even that is to get it done so we can move on to other things.
Boris is still promising 20,000 police officers (anywhere in the UK) while Labour are promising to return the 471 who have left since 2010. And Durham isn't a big police force.
I’m not surprised that all the parties are ignoring Brexit. It is just so deeply depressing. Unforced errors always are.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
The Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party are FAV in just 8 of the country’s 59 seats (just under 14%). All are currently Tory-held. Con price, shortest to longest: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 1/4 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 1/4 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 4/9 Dumfries and Galloway 4/6 Banff and Buchan 4/5 East Renfrewshire 17/20 Moray 17/20 Gordon 10/11 In the remaining 5 Tory-held seats, the SNP are FAV. Here are the Con prices, shortest to longest: Aberdeen South (incumbent sacked) EVS Ochil and South Perthshire 6/5 Angus 13/10 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (incumbent retired) 6/4 Stirling 11/4 I consider those first four (Berwickshire to Galloway) to be fantastic prices. I just cannot see the Tories losing any of them, unless something truly astonishing happens in the final week. That Dumfries and Galloway price of 4/6 deserves special mention. I haven’t heard a peep from Banff & Buchan, so your guess is as good as mine. East Renfrewshire ought to be rock-solid Tory, but their worry here is the large residual SLab vote (14,346), which could swing strongly SNP. Ditto Aberdeen South (SLab vote 9,143), Ochil (SLab vote 10,847) and Ayr (SLab vote 11,024). Punters beware in Angus, Moray and Gordon. This is far, far too risky for the uniformed. I hear that local Labour members in Stirling are out asking their supporters to vote Con this time. Can’t see them getting much time on the doorsteps. The local Tory MP is a pillock of the highest order, and they’ll get expelled from the party if London catches them. DYOR
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
I always found that regulatory stupidity was even worse than uncertainty. I still recall the idiot ombudsman who classed the refusal of a Spanish bus driver to allow a bike on board due to lack of room as 'industrial action' resulting in a travel insurance claim.
Is it just me or are there vwery few Tory stakeboards out there? I've only seen one Tory-voting field near Wantage so far this election. Lots of LD houses. One or two Labour ones.
Someone mentioned yesterday only seeing LD ones up in Winchester. On Saturday I drove from Headbourne Worthy to Alresford, through about eight villages just outside Winchester. The Steve Brine/Con posters outnumbered the Paula Ferguson/LD posters by over a hundred to about ten. In our not very fancy housing estate on the edge of Winchester, we've had about thirty LD leaflets to one from the Tories. I haven't yet seen a Smithson letter, but my girlfriend throws them away as soon as she sees they're from the LDs so I may have missed it.
Is it just me or are there vwery few Tory stakeboards out there? I've only seen one Tory-voting field near Wantage so far this election. Lots of LD houses. One or two Labour ones.
I seemed to remember in 2015 everybody was saying nobody saw many. But in 2015, ran a very effective campaign both in traditional media and online.
I'm amazed at the Tory spread given that the YouGov MRP last time underestimated Tory seats. I think that's going to be the miss of the betting markets this time round.
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
In all of this mayhem my youngest grandson (6) just came in to see us having been one of the kings in the nativity play
We had a lovely little chat and I said to him as Papa's do
'You are so special'
and his reply !!!
'Everyone is special'
And out of the mouths of babes. We all need a bit more humility methinks
Look out, you'll have some of the folks on here complaining that he's been brainwashed by lefty teachers! Anyway, sounds like a splendid wee chap. I bet he did a great job in the Nativity.
This site is becoming unreadable for me. I don't mind activist posters as long as they are upfront with their loyalties and don't unreasonably spam. Some of our new posters are taking the Mickey. That's before you get into the dubious content.
Quite a bit of truth in this, and I apologise for my part.
10 days to go. Hopefully we can remain civil and also curb the tendency (in me too) to post overly partisan messages without evidence.
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
If Lab get to 36-37 and Tories get 42% then we're still looking at a 2% swing from Lab to the Tories since the last election which should be enough for the Tories to get a majority. Especially considering there won't then be Lib Dem gains from the Tories, except for maybe Richmond Park.
Remember originally people were talking about 20-30 Tory losses to Lib Dems/SNP, no longer talking about that anymore.
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
Ceiling aside from the 5 companies currently reporting above 42 you mean?
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We are now in the world where the 2 possible Government options are:-
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England. Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
Good point and a fair one. I'm sure Cameron made a big election issue out of Miliband being propped up by the SNP, and it paid big dividends.
The dynamics were a bit different, though. MiliE was seen as a bit of a dweeb, and the fear played on was that Salmond would run rings around him. Given the fears about PM Jez, having Nicola the Social Worker to keep him (and us) from metaphorically plunging our hands into boiling water by mistake might offer reassurance.
But in the medium term, the huge proportion of SNP MPs in the Scottish contingent- and the fact that a SNP-Conservative deal isn't going to happen- destabilises a lot of calculations in Westminster.
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
If Lab get to 36-37 and Tories get 42% then we're still looking at a 2% swing from Lab to the Tories since the last election which should be enough for the Tories to get a majority. Especially considering there won't then be Lib Dem gains from the Tories, except for maybe Richmond Park.
Remember originally people were talking about 20-30 Tory losses to Lib Dems/SNP, no longer talking about that anymore.
That's not what the YouGov model was saying. 6% is when it gets very dicey.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
Ceiling aside from the 5 companies currently reporting above 42 you mean?
The average is 42% and I don't think enough flat cap Fred's are going to vote Tory in the end to make it possible.
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We are now in the world where the 2 possible Government options are:-
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England. Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
Good point and a fair one. I'm sure Cameron made a big election issue out of Miliband being propped up by the SNP, and it paid big dividends.
The dynamics were a bit different, though. MiliE was seen as a bit of a dweeb, and the fear played on was that Salmond would run rings around him. Given the fears about PM Jez, having Nicola the Social Worker to keep him (and us) from metaphorically plunging our hands into boiling water by mistake might offer reassurance.
But in the medium term, the huge proportion of SNP MPs in the Scottish contingent- and the fact that a SNP-Conservative deal isn't going to happen- destabilises a lot of calculations in Westminster.
Devolution has destabilised things fall stop.
Its only a matter of time before the Tories are in opposition but have a majority of English seats. And Westminster passing English only laws then will be a farce, how is that going to work?
However degraded our politics, we've some way to go before getting down to Trump's level. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/30/us/politics/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html ...Chief Petty Officer Edward Gallagher and other Navy SEALs gave the young captive medical aid that day in Iraq in 2017, sedating him and cutting an airway in his throat to help him breathe. Then, without warning, according to colleagues, Chief Gallagher pulled a small hunting knife from a sheath and stabbed the sedated captive in the neck. The same Chief Gallagher who later posed for a photograph holding the dead captive up by the hair has now been celebrated on the campaign trail by President Trump...
"Our beautiful brave soldiers". As I think I've said, I'll take a Hard Brexit and a Tory landslide on Dec 13th if in return I get President XYZ from WH2020 where XYZ is a person other than the present incumbent.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
I always found that regulatory stupidity was even worse than uncertainty. I still recall the idiot ombudsman who classed the refusal of a Spanish bus driver to allow a bike on board due to lack of room as 'industrial action' resulting in a travel insurance claim.
Oh, random regulatory stupidity is even worse, yes. One reason why the UK is such a popular investment destination is that we have a lot less random stupidity than most places - although as someone who mostly lives abroad it’s something that gets noticeably worse in steps - rather than slowly over time if you live here.
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
Ceiling aside from the 5 companies currently reporting above 42 you mean?
The average is 42% and I don't think enough flat cap Fred's are going to vote Tory in the end to make it possible.
The Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party are FAV in just 8 of the country’s 59 seats (just under 14%). All are currently Tory-held. Con price, shortest to longest: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 1/4 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 1/4 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 4/9 Dumfries and Galloway 4/6 Banff and Buchan 4/5 East Renfrewshire 17/20 Moray 17/20 Gordon 10/11 In the remaining 5 Tory-held seats, the SNP are FAV. Here are the Con prices, shortest to longest: Aberdeen South (incumbent sacked) EVS Ochil and South Perthshire 6/5 Angus 13/10 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (incumbent retired) 6/4 Stirling 11/4 I consider those first four (Berwickshire to Galloway) to be fantastic prices. I just cannot see the Tories losing any of them, unless something truly astonishing happens in the final week. That Dumfries and Galloway price of 4/6 deserves special mention. I haven’t heard a peep from Banff & Buchan, so your guess is as good as mine. East Renfrewshire ought to be rock-solid Tory, but their worry here is the large residual SLab vote (14,346), which could swing strongly SNP. Ditto Aberdeen South (SLab vote 9,143), Ochil (SLab vote 10,847) and Ayr (SLab vote 11,024). Punters beware in Angus, Moray and Gordon. This is far, far too risky for the uniformed. I hear that local Labour members in Stirling are out asking their supporters to vote Con this time. Can’t see them getting much time on the doorsteps. The local Tory MP is a pillock of the highest order, and they’ll get expelled from the party if London catches them. DYOR
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Thanks! Always great with local knowledge. I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected? Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers. Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Your Cities of London and Westmninster %s don`t look right. Is 43% in the wrong column?
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
We are all f##ked. Year of messing about and Corbynonmics is here to stay.
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
There'll be a lot of close results that's for sure. I'm not sure I understand how the MRP thing works for data that it hasn't itself collected - if Lab get, say 5% higher than was in the YouGov MRP how do you know where that extra 5% has come from? Or is it just based on lifting Lab's numbers across the board?
I have just had a little touch on the LDs in Cambridgeshire South and Cambridge. I thought both were drifting from them but spoke with my nephew who is a Cambridge graduate and who spends much time there. He tells me that the Merritt issue is much bigger in the area than has so far been apparent nationally and that local media are up in arms over both Conservative and Labour attempts to use it politically. From what he says it may blow over in the wider campaign, but not in Cambridge and the surrounds.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
Sinn Fein absences gives them a majority with 323.
Barnesian's model has Don Valley as a Labour hold, so Flint will be another vote to "Get Brexit done" if it's really as close as all that too.
Yes it gets very messy if the Tories get 320-323 seats. No WDA (without a second referendum) and no minority government. Another election and another A50 extension.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
LOL, it’s on the heads of Benn, Grieve, Bercow and everyone else who wants to keep this going for years to come until they can somehow get around the referendum result. Plus the EU themselves who negotiated initially in bad faith. If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Your Cities of London and Westmninster %s don`t look right. Is 43% in the wrong column?
Conservative 46.6 Labour 38.4 Liberal Democrats 11.1 was the result last time there. Labour is broadly holding up nationally in the polls, and what if Chuka's apparent popularity was simply because he had a red rosette in Streatham last time round ?
Barnesian might be more right on Cities than most think...
However degraded our politics, we've some way to go before getting down to Trump's level. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/30/us/politics/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html ...Chief Petty Officer Edward Gallagher and other Navy SEALs gave the young captive medical aid that day in Iraq in 2017, sedating him and cutting an airway in his throat to help him breathe. Then, without warning, according to colleagues, Chief Gallagher pulled a small hunting knife from a sheath and stabbed the sedated captive in the neck. The same Chief Gallagher who later posed for a photograph holding the dead captive up by the hair has now been celebrated on the campaign trail by President Trump...
"Our beautiful brave soldiers". As I think I've said, I'll take a Hard Brexit and a Tory landslide on Dec 13th if in return I get President XYZ from WH2020 where XYZ is a person other than the present incumbent.
Tory landslide with Trump and Corbyn both gone from politics? That's my ideal scenario, bring it on
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
In all of this mayhem my youngest grandson (6) just came in to see us having been one of the kings in the nativity play
We had a lovely little chat and I said to him as Papa's do
'You are so special'
and his reply !!!
'Everyone is special'
And out of the mouths of babes. We all need a bit more humility methinks
Look out, you'll have some of the folks on here complaining that he's been brainwashed by lefty teachers! Anyway, sounds like a splendid wee chap. I bet he did a great job in the Nativity.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
Sinn Fein absences gives them a majority with 323.
Barnesian's model has Don Valley as a Labour hold, so Flint will be another vote to "Get Brexit done" if it's really as close as all that too.
Yes it gets very messy if the Tories get 320-323 seats. No WDA (without a second referendum) and no minority government. Another election and another A50 extension.
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
There'll be a lot of close results that's for sure. I'm not sure I understand how the MRP thing works for data that it hasn't itself collected - if Lab get, say 5% higher than was in the YouGov MRP how do you know where that extra 5% has come from? Or is it just based on lifting Lab's numbers across the board?
MRP is supposedly based on demographics of constituencies - YouGov identifies types of voter, calculates how they will vote and estimates how many are in each constituency.
It's stumbling block will be tactical voting - round here it's a 2 way seat so zero point voting for the Lib Dem or Green candidates even though I know both of them.
Comments
I voted Remain for pragmatic reasons (a very reluctant remainer). I understand those who voted leave, though I don`t agree with them. The group that I do not understand is those who enthusiastically want to remain. They never seem to give clear reasons for their enthusiasm other than a vague "we should be internationalists".
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We had a lovely little chat and I said to him as Papa's do
'You are so special'
and his reply !!!
'Everyone is special'
And out of the mouths of babes. We all need a bit more humility methinks
At this rate, Labour will finish in the high 30's (at least).
This tallies with everything I'm seeing, hearing and picking up. Labour voters are eshewing the elitist top tories and coming home.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1201511106365345792?s=20
Everything I'm seeing hearing and picking up suggests labour are going to get their arses handed to them next week
And made him stand in the corner.
Final result 33-34 vs 42-43.
It does confirm one thing. The belief in Conservative HQ that Boris could not go through an election campaign without at least one moment equivalent to the dementia tax or fox hunting was right. It just remains to be seen if the public opinion of him was so low that even this crass behaviour will go unpunished.
I am picking up plenty of evidence of Labour voters, yes ones up north, coming home.
I actually think the NHS is a HUGE issue for voters at the moment ...
Dec 12th was always a high risk strategy. Not much money. Cold weather. Dark days. Lots of sniffles. NHS creaking. Transport problems.
Brexit? Hardly hearing it mentioned.
If it were me betting I’d go for the Greens.
I don’t see the constituency for Labour coming second on the IoW, whilst there is a strong hippie/alternative movement that goes for the Greens.
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England.
Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
On Sunday she told me that she thinks I'm right about the NHS and that Johnson is "as bad as Corbyn."
The idea that Johnson has in any shape or form had a good campaign is risible.
Perhaps he will, perhaps he won't; my NOM bet looking better by the day.
Thanks.
He has, I think been spectacularly lucky in his friends.
I wouldn't recommend a sell like that in too many constituencies but Banff Buchan is as close to Labour coming absolubtely nowhere as a near certainty as you're going to get.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/30/us/politics/trump-seals-eddie-gallagher.html
...Chief Petty Officer Edward Gallagher and other Navy SEALs gave the young captive medical aid that day in Iraq in 2017, sedating him and cutting an airway in his throat to help him breathe. Then, without warning, according to colleagues, Chief Gallagher pulled a small hunting knife from a sheath and stabbed the sedated captive in the neck.
The same Chief Gallagher who later posed for a photograph holding the dead captive up by the hair has now been celebrated on the campaign trail by President Trump...
Con price, shortest to longest:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 1/4
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 1/4
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 4/9
Dumfries and Galloway 4/6
Banff and Buchan 4/5
East Renfrewshire 17/20
Moray 17/20
Gordon 10/11
In the remaining 5 Tory-held seats, the SNP are FAV. Here are the Con prices, shortest to longest:
Aberdeen South (incumbent sacked) EVS
Ochil and South Perthshire 6/5
Angus 13/10
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (incumbent retired) 6/4
Stirling 11/4
I consider those first four (Berwickshire to Galloway) to be fantastic prices. I just cannot see the Tories losing any of them, unless something truly astonishing happens in the final week. That Dumfries and Galloway price of 4/6 deserves special mention.
I haven’t heard a peep from Banff & Buchan, so your guess is as good as mine.
East Renfrewshire ought to be rock-solid Tory, but their worry here is the large residual SLab vote (14,346), which could swing strongly SNP. Ditto Aberdeen South (SLab vote 9,143), Ochil (SLab vote 10,847) and Ayr (SLab vote 11,024).
Punters beware in Angus, Moray and Gordon. This is far, far too risky for the uniformed.
I hear that local Labour members in Stirling are out asking their supporters to vote Con this time. Can’t see them getting much time on the doorsteps. The local Tory MP is a pillock of the highest order, and they’ll get expelled from the party if London catches them.
DYOR
I didn't bet on NOM but when Labour were polling mid 20's% I came in on them above 200 seats at good odds which I'm really happy about and also a side bet on Labour above 250 which I don't think is impossible.
Thought long and hard about how to bet on this election and, apart from turnout (I'm on below 65% and below 60%) that was the way I felt comfortable for my mainstay betting.
It's basically another way of saying NOM and I think it's the likely outcome.
Someone posted about the LibDems. Totally agree. Even 13% would be a good result in a General Election, virtually doubling the vote share and possibly the number of seats too - with some decapitations in the mix.
I`m tempted to have a small stake on 220-229 Labour seats at 9.6.
This is a really astute point.
Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester.
Tories four short of a majority.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Sinn Fein absences gives them a majority with 323.
It is out of Labour's hands.
I couldn`t resist a smidgeon of that.
Anyway, sounds like a splendid wee chap. I bet he did a great job in the Nativity.
10 days to go. Hopefully we can remain civil and also curb the tendency (in me too) to post overly partisan messages without evidence.
Remember originally people were talking about 20-30 Tory losses to Lib Dems/SNP, no longer talking about that anymore.
But in the medium term, the huge proportion of SNP MPs in the Scottish contingent- and the fact that a SNP-Conservative deal isn't going to happen- destabilises a lot of calculations in Westminster.
Its only a matter of time before the Tories are in opposition but have a majority of English seats. And Westminster passing English only laws then will be a farce, how is that going to work?
As I think I've said, I'll take a Hard Brexit and a Tory landslide on Dec 13th if in return I get President XYZ from WH2020 where XYZ is a person other than the present incumbent.
One reason why the UK is such a popular investment destination is that we have a lot less random stupidity than most places - although as someone who mostly lives abroad it’s something that gets noticeably worse in steps - rather than slowly over time if you live here.
right?
I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected?
Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers.
Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
Or in the middle of it.
there you go
If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
Labour 38.4
Liberal Democrats 11.1 was the result last time there. Labour is broadly holding up nationally in the polls, and what if Chuka's apparent popularity was simply because he had a red rosette in Streatham last time round ?
Barnesian might be more right on Cities than most think...
It's stumbling block will be tactical voting - round here it's a 2 way seat so zero point voting for the Lib Dem or Green candidates even though I know both of them.