Who is throwing out desperation policies? Who is just keeping on keeping on? As close as ICM have it, if opinium or deltapoll are right labour will be completely ballsed next week. There is no evidence of tory to lab switching and the leader ratings are not closing anymore. See deltapoll sunday for this. Tory majority strong favourite, possibly a very large one. There is no jez surge this time
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Your Cities of London and Westmninster %s don`t look right. Is 43% in the wrong column?
Conservative 46.6 Labour 38.4 Liberal Democrats 11.1 was the result last time there. Labour is broadly holding up nationally in the polls, and what if Chuka's apparent popularity was simply because he had a red rosette in Streatham last time round ?
Barnesian might be more right on Cities than most think...
The LibDem vote needs to be super-super efficient to deprive the Tories of a majority.
It is out of Labour's hands.
Is it? If Labour get to 36-37% and Tories ceiling is clearly 42%. YouGov MRP seemed to think 6% was when things started to get very iffy for a Tory majority.
There'll be a lot of close results that's for sure. I'm not sure I understand how the MRP thing works for data that it hasn't itself collected - if Lab get, say 5% higher than was in the YouGov MRP how do you know where that extra 5% has come from? Or is it just based on lifting Lab's numbers across the board?
MRP is supposedly based on demographics of constituencies - YouGov identifies types of voter, calculates how they will vote and estimates how many are in each constituency.
It's stumbling block will be tactical voting - round here it's a 2 way seat so zero point voting for the Lib Dem or Green candidates even though I know both of them.
And that MRP started out with an 11% gap, which may well be the outcome. But it equally may not be.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Your model has Lib Dems on 21 seats which I think is very optimistic. Did you not have Portsmouth South a Lib Dem gain last week? Now you have them on 27%, yet the constituency poll had 11%.
Berwick you have Lib Dems on 40% but the constituency poll had 20%.
A week ago I thought Guildford and Winchester looked good shouts for Lib Dem gains but I just can’t see it now.
Only St Albans, Cheltenham and South Cambs would I be confident of outside of London.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
Maybe SNP and Lib Dems would give Lab supply, confidence and ref2#1 in exchange for PR and ref2#2? In all seriousness, no idea but it would be kinda funny if having watched Con+DUP failed to deliver Brexit, Lab+SNP+LibDem then proceed to fail to deliver REf2. Other countries have managed okay without a proper government (I think Belgium and Italy saw their economies improve in such times) so maybe that would be the best outcome for the foreseeable.
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We are now in the world where the 2 possible Government options are:-
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England. Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
Good point and a fair one. I'm sure Cameron made a big election issue out of Miliband being propped up by the SNP, and it paid big dividends.
The dynamics were a bit different, though. MiliE was seen as a bit of a dweeb, and the fear played on was that Salmond would run rings around him. Given the fears about PM Jez, having Nicola the Social Worker to keep him (and us) from metaphorically plunging our hands into boiling water by mistake might offer reassurance.
But in the medium term, the huge proportion of SNP MPs in the Scottish contingent- and the fact that a SNP-Conservative deal isn't going to happen- destabilises a lot of calculations in Westminster.
Devolution has destabilised things fall stop.
Its only a matter of time before the Tories are in opposition but have a majority of English seats. And Westminster passing English only laws then will be a farce, how is that going to work?
The same way as it did with Labour and the initial set of Student fees - voted through by people not effected by it.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
The DUP said over the weekend they will not back Corbyn in any circumstances and in a hung parliament they would seek to negotiate changes to the WDA with Boris
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Can you explain Warrington South to me please? That's virtually an identical result to last time which seems odd as there should have been some swings surely?
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Your model has Lib Dems on 21 seats which I think is very optimistic. Did you not have Portsmouth South a Lib Dem gain last week? Now you have them on 27%, yet the constituency poll had 11%.
Berwick you have Lib Dems on 40% but the constituency poll had 20%.
A week ago I thought Guildford and Winchester looked good shouts for Lib Dem gains but I just can’t see it now.
Only St Albans, Cheltenham and South Cambs would I be confident of outside of London.
youGov MRP had Cheltenham 51% chance lib dem 49% chance Tory.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
Well, the PLP will vote down scrapping trident and they will vote down indyref2, so it's already a non-starter. Labour supporters think a HP hands the keys of Downing Street to Corbyn to cobble together some fantasy coalition with the SNP. It's just not going to happen.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Can you explain Warrington South to me please? That's virtually an identical result to last time which seems odd as there should have been some swings surely?
I think the Lib Dems are ahead by 2% there :innocent face:
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
Maybe SNP and Lib Dems would give Lab supply, confidence and ref2#1 in exchange for PR and ref2#2? In all seriousness, no idea but it would be kinda funny if having watched Con+DUP failed to deliver Brexit, Lab+SNP+LibDem then proceed to fail to deliver REf2. Other countries have managed okay without a proper government (I think Belgium and Italy saw their economies improve in such times) so maybe that would be the best outcome for the foreseeable.
Hard to see how Jezza could deliver #1 unless the Tories do a lot worse than 2017 as there would be enough Labour MPs who'd refuse to ditch FPTP under any circumstances. #2 would be stretch too, but I could just about see the modern Conservative and F*** Unionism Party deciding it's time to ditch Scotland in order to get perpetual majorities in a rump England and Wales Parliament. (I'm assuming Scotland departing the Union would be a death-knell to Northern Irish Unionism as the Protestant community there has far more in common with the Scots than with the rest of Great Britain.)
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
I always found that regulatory stupidity was even worse than uncertainty. I still recall the idiot ombudsman who classed the refusal of a Spanish bus driver to allow a bike on board due to lack of room as 'industrial action' resulting in a travel insurance claim.
I assume you work in the travel insurance industry? Because I don't think that story resonates with the wider public in the way you expect it to.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Your model has Lib Dems on 21 seats which I think is very optimistic. Did you not have Portsmouth South a Lib Dem gain last week? Now you have them on 27%, yet the constituency poll had 11%.
Berwick you have Lib Dems on 40% but the constituency poll had 20%.
A week ago I thought Guildford and Winchester looked good shouts for Lib Dem gains but I just can’t see it now.
Only St Albans, Cheltenham and South Cambs would I be confident of outside of London.
Yes - my LD count for GB has come down from 31 to 26 over the last week. The Con share has held steady and the LD share has dropped. I have also adjusted the Green tactical voting in Labour's favour.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
LOL, it’s on the heads of Benn, Grieve, Bercow and everyone else who wants to keep this going for years to come until they can somehow get around the referendum result. Plus the EU themselves who negotiated initially in bad faith. If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
LOL, it’s on the heads of Benn, Grieve, Bercow and everyone else who wants to keep this going for years to come until they can somehow get around the referendum result. Plus the EU themselves who negotiated initially in bad faith. If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We are now in the world where the 2 possible Government options are:-
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England. Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
Good point and a fair one. I'm sure Cameron made a big election issue out of Miliband being propped up by the SNP, and it paid big dividends.
The dynamics were a bit different, though. MiliE was seen as a bit of a dweeb, and the fear played on was that Salmond would run rings around him. Given the fears about PM Jez, having Nicola the Social Worker to keep him (and us) from metaphorically plunging our hands into boiling water by mistake might offer reassurance.
But in the medium term, the huge proportion of SNP MPs in the Scottish contingent- and the fact that a SNP-Conservative deal isn't going to happen- destabilises a lot of calculations in Westminster.
Devolution has destabilised things fall stop.
Its only a matter of time before the Tories are in opposition but have a majority of English seats. And Westminster passing English only laws then will be a farce, how is that going to work?
The same way as it did with Labour and the initial set of Student fees - voted through by people not effected by it.
There's a English Votes for English Laws process in the system now, which should be fine as long as the PM doesn't throw a wobbly whenever they don't get their way (innocent face). However, if there 19 Ulster MPs and 59 Scottish MPs, many of them opting out having anything to do with government possibilities, it makes it harder for anyone to gather together a majority.
As the Lib Dem seat range heads downwards it appears that a Lab/SNP coalition is the only alternative to some form of Tory government. This is probably very helpful to the Conservatives as it will repel plenty of undecided voters towards their camp.
On the other hand I suspect a Lab/Lib Dem coalition would be marginally better received across England but this simply won't be possible with the current arithmetic.
We are now in the world where the 2 possible Government options are:-
Labour and the SNP - so the SNP get a say in things regarding England. Conservatives - so the English ride roughshod over Scottish viewpoints.
In the long run neither of those options are ideal or can continue.
Good point and a fair one. I'm sure Cameron made a big election issue out of Miliband being propped up by the SNP, and it paid big dividends.
The dynamics were a bit different, though. MiliE was seen as a bit of a dweeb, and the fear played on was that Salmond would run rings around him. Given the fears about PM Jez, having Nicola the Social Worker to keep him (and us) from metaphorically plunging our hands into boiling water by mistake might offer reassurance.
But in the medium term, the huge proportion of SNP MPs in the Scottish contingent- and the fact that a SNP-Conservative deal isn't going to happen- destabilises a lot of calculations in Westminster.
Devolution has destabilised things fall stop.
Its only a matter of time before the Tories are in opposition but have a majority of English seats. And Westminster passing English only laws then will be a farce, how is that going to work?
The same way as it did with Labour and the initial set of Student fees - voted through by people not effected by it.
Indeed but that was bad enough as a one-off vote. Having years of that occuring regularly is just not sustainable.
Plus it gives immense power for the SNP to play silly buggers by being principled. Imagine the farcical situation where the Tories have an English-only majority and more seats than Labour but Labour get into Downing Street because of SNP support . . . but then the SNP say they're abstaining on all English-only legislation. Westminster would be gridlocked on devolved issues. The Tories would be in a position to reject all English-only legislation because they'd have a majority with the SNP abstaining. The SNP would be in a position to make Westminster absurd and the UK itself unstable because of principled abstentionism.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
LOL, it’s on the heads of Benn, Grieve, Bercow and everyone else who wants to keep this going for years to come until they can somehow get around the referendum result. Plus the EU themselves who negotiated initially in bad faith. If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Your Cities of London and Westmninster %s don`t look right. Is 43% in the wrong column?
Conservative 46.6 Labour 38.4 Liberal Democrats 11.1 was the result last time there. Labour is broadly holding up nationally in the polls, and what if Chuka's apparent popularity was simply because he had a red rosette in Streatham last time round ?
Barnesian might be more right on Cities than most think...
It does feel like we’re going to have two sets of polls telling two different stories.
Being wrong is bad business for them, so we know all the pollsters are doing everything they can to be bang on. That being the case it would be good to get eight of exactly how and why they differ. I’ve seen bits and pieces of discussion on this but nothing comprehensive that I would trust.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
LOL, it’s on the heads of Benn, Grieve, Bercow and everyone else who wants to keep this going for years to come until they can somehow get around the referendum result. Plus the EU themselves who negotiated initially in bad faith. If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Thanks! Always great with local knowledge. I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected? Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers. Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
I wonder if it is the historic 'journey' of the seat, making it look more volatile. Michael Moore held it for the LDs comfortably for ten years until 2015, when it went very narrowly SNP, then to SCon in '17. Clearly 2014 is a watershed moment, especially for seats along the border, with most voters having a strong opinion on constitutional matters.
SLab have been weak here for decades, and died on their arse in the Euros, dipping below 3%, with the LDs scraping above them. Whether these voters stick with their preferred party or go for a tactical vote is the unknown factor, but these voters are already pretty squeezed, there isn't much further for SLab to fall here. There is a bedrock of LDs, but we are talking 8-10% of the constituency, unless they buck national trends completely, which I am seeing no evidence for on the ground.
BRS is very much farming country, and the SCon vote will hold up amongst landowners/country types. SNP vote will hold up in the small towns e.g. Duns, Eyemouth, Gala. I'm expecting a vote similar to 2017, so SNP 35%ish, SCon 50% ish.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Can you explain Warrington South to me please? That's virtually an identical result to last time which seems odd as there should have been some swings surely?
I haven't kept a record of the previous prediction. I would expect a small swing to Labour based on the polls.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
The DUP said over the weekend they will not back Corbyn in any circumstances and in a hung parliament they would seek to negotiate changes to the WDA with Boris
They will not support a referendum
So, Boris brings back the May WDA and the (strengthened) ERG sink that.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
LOL, it’s on the heads of Benn, Grieve, Bercow and everyone else who wants to keep this going for years to come until they can somehow get around the referendum result. Plus the EU themselves who negotiated initially in bad faith. If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
Well, it's a view.
Always a better view from the high ground
Brexit headbangers are in complete denial about what they have done to this country. Understandable I suppose, as they are economically illiterate they can't admit to something they don't understand.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
Sinn Fein absences gives them a majority with 323.
Barnesian's model has Don Valley as a Labour hold, so Flint will be another vote to "Get Brexit done" if it's really as close as all that too.
Yes it gets very messy if the Tories get 320-323 seats. No WDA (without a second referendum) and no minority government. Another election and another A50 extension.
or a no-deal exit supported by the DUP? (are the DUP implacably opposed to a no-deal Brexit?)
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
Maybe SNP and Lib Dems would give Lab supply, confidence and ref2#1 in exchange for PR and ref2#2? In all seriousness, no idea but it would be kinda funny if having watched Con+DUP failed to deliver Brexit, Lab+SNP+LibDem then proceed to fail to deliver REf2. Other countries have managed okay without a proper government (I think Belgium and Italy saw their economies improve in such times) so maybe that would be the best outcome for the foreseeable.
Hard to see how Jezza could deliver #1 unless the Tories do a lot worse than 2017 as there would be enough Labour MPs who'd refuse to ditch FPTP under any circumstances. #2 would be stretch too, but I could just about see the modern Conservative and F*** Unionism Party deciding it's time to ditch Scotland in order to get perpetual majorities in a rump England and Wales Parliament. (I'm assuming Scotland departing the Union would be a death-knell to Northern Irish Unionism as the Protestant community there has far more in common with the Scots than with the rest of Great Britain.)
Personally, I think the logical direction of travel for the current Tory party is to being an out and out, no holds barred English nationalist party - assuming (as I expect) they win some sort of a majority then post-Brexit they'll need an English identity issue to keep together their electoral coalition, maybe around reducing funding for Scotland to instead spend on NHS England and/or some military stuff. Just my sense of where they'll head - most probably wrong. I agree an indy Scotland will lead to a united Ireland.
It does feel like we’re going to have two sets of polls telling two different stories.
Being wrong is bad business for them, so we know all the pollsters are doing everything they can to be bang on. That being the case it would be good to get eight of exactly how and why they differ. I’ve seen bits and pieces of discussion on this but nothing comprehensive that I would trust.
Same as most business. Being right or wrong when everyone else is in the same boat is okay. When you're out of step you're either a genius or a fucking idiot. Neil Woodford anyone?
Was bored and ended up looking through last Delta, some interesting snippets in net approvals, Johnson vs Corbyn ….
Lab Leavers: +3 vs -23. Con Remainers: -2 vs -74 (!!) Regions: Midlands -4 vs -51, North +7 vs -42, Wales -2 vs -34 Lab marginals (eng/wales): +16 vs -29 (ruh roh) Con marginals (eng/wales): +5 vs -41
Those that voted Remain think that Leavers are being reckless with the economy. It may be worth entertaining the thought that Remainers are being similarly reckless by putting remaining in the EU ahead of the economic disaster that Corbyn and co would inflict by trashing the public finances. I voted Remain for pragmatic reasons (a very reluctant remainer). I understand those who voted leave, though I don`t agree with them. The group that I do not understand is those who enthusiastically want to remain. They never seem to give clear reasons for their enthusiasm other than a vague "we should be internationalists".
I think it's identity - not economics - on BOTH sides, as regards the more passionate advocates. The Leave side more obviously, and as discussed ad infinitum, but definitely on the Remain side too. Specifically there, it's the feeling of living in an outward looking, modern, socially relaxed and above all civilized country full of people with those self same attributes. When we Brexit it will be a kick in the stomach because it will damage our (since, yes, I feel this) sense of ourselves and what Britain is. That's where the strong feelings come from. X points off GDP over Z years? Loss of just-in-time supply chains? Chlorinated chicken? No, all valid, but it is not truly that. That is what people pretend they are mad about. Because of the desire to seem extremely rational.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
LOL, it’s on the heads of Benn, Grieve, Bercow and everyone else who wants to keep this going for years to come until they can somehow get around the referendum result. Plus the EU themselves who negotiated initially in bad faith. If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
Well, it's a view.
Always a better view from the high ground
Brexit headbangers are in complete denial about what they have done to this country. Understandable I suppose, as they are economically illiterate they can't admit to something they don't understand.
Been at the bottle again Nigel? It is the only explanation for your incoherence at this time of the day.
Who is throwing out desperation policies? Who is just keeping on keeping on? As close as ICM have it, if opinium or deltapoll are right labour will be completely ballsed next week. There is no evidence of tory to lab switching and the leader ratings are not closing anymore. See deltapoll sunday for this. Tory majority strong favourite, possibly a very large one. There is no jez surge this time
Love the optimism, and am still feeling it despite the Tory bedwetting and Labour ramping. The Britain Elects tracker, updated a few hours ago, now gives:
With only 9 campaigning days to go, that's an average Con lead of 10.6%, enough to knock Corbyn and his merry band of anti-patriots and economic illiterates into oblivion...
Was bored and ended up looking through last Delta, some interesting snippets in net approvals, Johnson vs Corbyn ….
Lab Leavers: +3 vs -23. Con Remainers: -2 vs -74 (!!) Regions: Midlands -4 vs -51, North +7 vs -42, Wales -2 vs -34 Lab marginals (eng/wales): +16 vs -29 (ruh roh)
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
The DUP said over the weekend they will not back Corbyn in any circumstances and in a hung parliament they would seek to negotiate changes to the WDA with Boris
They will not support a referendum
No deal is a real danger then. Unless Tories are closer to 300 than 325. Can imagine lots of remainers cheering wildly if its a hung parliament not appreciating this and lulled into a false sense of security about no deal because it was indeed extremely unlikely throughout the last parliament despite media reports and bluffs from both PMs.
The Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party are FAV in just 8 of the country’s 59 seats (just under 14%). All are currently Tory-held. Con price, shortest to longest: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 1/4 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 1/4 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 4/9 Dumfries and Galloway 4/6 Banff and Buchan 4/5 East Renfrewshire 17/20 Moray 17/20 Gordon 10/11 In the remaining 5 Tory-held seats, the SNP are FAV. Here are the Con prices, shortest to longest: Aberdeen South (incumbent sacked) EVS Ochil and South Perthshire 6/5 Angus 13/10 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (incumbent retired) 6/4 Stirling 11/4 I consider those first four (Berwickshire to Galloway) to be fantastic prices. I just cannot see the Tories losing any of them, unless something truly astonishing happens in the final week. That Dumfries and Galloway price of 4/6 deserves special mention. I haven’t heard a peep from Banff & Buchan, so your guess is as good as mine. East Renfrewshire ought to be rock-solid Tory, but their worry here is the large residual SLab vote (14,346), which could swing strongly SNP. Ditto Aberdeen South (SLab vote 9,143), Ochil (SLab vote 10,847) and Ayr (SLab vote 11,024). Punters beware in Angus, Moray and Gordon. This is far, far too risky for the uniformed. I hear that local Labour members in Stirling are out asking their supporters to vote Con this time. Can’t see them getting much time on the doorsteps. The local Tory MP is a pillock of the highest order, and they’ll get expelled from the party if London catches them. DYOR
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Thanks! Always great with local knowledge. I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected? Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers. Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
The price for BRS is insane. I backed it when it was 1.33 and regret not pouring more on.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
The DUP said over the weekend they will not back Corbyn in any circumstances and in a hung parliament they would seek to negotiate changes to the WDA with Boris
They will not support a referendum
No deal is a real danger then. Unless Tories are closer to 300 than 325. Can imagine lots of remainers cheering wildly if its a hung parliament not appreciating this and lulled into a false sense of security about no deal because it was indeed extremely unlikely throughout the last parliament despite media reports and bluffs from both PMs.
For Ave It: Con are just 40/1 to gain Glasgow South.
I wonder how many constituents remember their old MP Teddy Taylor? When he was first elected, in 1964, the modern Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party didn’t exist. He was one of the last Unionist Party MPs.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
We are all f##ked. Year of messing about and Corbynonmics is here to stay.
With a hung parliament chaos beckons every which way.
If Remain wins a 2nd ref the Tories will put Leave in their next manifesto, so we are guaranteed a THIRD referendum very soon. If Leave wins do we Leave immediately or do we have another election to choose how we Leave, or what?
It's insane.
However much you dislike Boris or abhor Brexit, the only sane choice is to get on and do Brexit, and then campaign to rejoin if that's your thing.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
That'll be the Tories then, unless you can explain to me what the regulatory environment will be in 13 months time if the Tories win?
LOL, it’s on the heads of Benn, Grieve, Bercow and everyone else who wants to keep this going for years to come until they can somehow get around the referendum result. Plus the EU themselves who negotiated initially in bad faith. If we’d left the EU at the end of 2016, six months after the referendum, business would now be in a much better place than they are at the moment.
Well, it's a view.
Always a better view from the high ground
Brexit headbangers are in complete denial about what they have done to this country. Understandable I suppose, as they are economically illiterate they can't admit to something they don't understand.
You really should calm down or you'll do permanent damage to yourself.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
I always found that regulatory stupidity was even worse than uncertainty. I still recall the idiot ombudsman who classed the refusal of a Spanish bus driver to allow a bike on board due to lack of room as 'industrial action' resulting in a travel insurance claim.
I assume you work in the travel insurance industry? Because I don't think that story resonates with the wider public in the way you expect it to.
I wrote a small travel insurance account (amongst a much bigger GI account). I did not expect it to resonate with the public, but anyone who knows anything about insurance would know it is a stupid decision and even common sense should suggest a driver taking a decision about the 'luggage' of one passenger on safety grounds (whilst happy to take the passenger) is not industrial action.
A better and much bigger example might be the complete victory of L&G and their then CEO, Dave Prosser over the venal and political decision of the FSA (predeccessor of the FCA) to go after them for mis-selling which never occurred. He won the appeal (in 2005) on every ground and the FSA were exposed for the political yes men and incompetents that they were.
Am nicely green on the lab vote % market on Betfair. For those looking for a long shot tip with trading potential, I'd say Lab at 40-45% at 15.5 has potential.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Can you explain Warrington South to me please? That's virtually an identical result to last time which seems odd as there should have been some swings surely?
I haven't kept a record of the previous prediction. I would expect a small swing to Labour based on the polls.
Sorry I wasn't clear. I mean your model is currently predicting an almost identical result to 2017. Despite the fact that there have been major changes from 2017 to 2019 in your national percentages your outcome for that seat is virtually unchanged.
Warrington South - 2017 Lab 48.4 Con 44.3 LD 5.4 Ind 2.0 From national figures of Con 44, Lab 41, LD 8
Warrington South - 2019 Barnesian model Lab 48 Con 46 LD 6 BXP 1 From national figures of Con 42, Lab 32, LD 14, BXP 4
How can you end up with 2017 and 2019 seat figures almost identical despite very different national figures?
For Ave It: Con are just 40/1 to gain Glasgow South.
I wonder how many constituents remember their old MP Teddy Taylor? When he was first elected, in 1964, the modern Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party didn’t exist. He was one of the last Unionist Party MPs.
Yes I remember when Glasgow Cathcart was CON. LAB gained it against the tide in 1979 and again on boundary changes in 1983.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
The DUP said over the weekend they will not back Corbyn in any circumstances and in a hung parliament they would seek to negotiate changes to the WDA with Boris
They will not support a referendum
No deal is a real danger then. Unless Tories are closer to 300 than 325. Can imagine lots of remainers cheering wildly if its a hung parliament not appreciating this and lulled into a false sense of security about no deal because it was indeed extremely unlikely throughout the last parliament despite media reports and bluffs from both PMs.
It does become very possible
Hard to see who will back down. Labour leavers is the only one I can see as possible. DUP wont, Johnson wont, Tory rebels expunged, SNP wont, LDs just maybe at last minute with no deal imminent and happening but would be an act of sacrificing party for country.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
We are all f##ked. Year of messing about and Corbynonmics is here to stay.
However much you dislike Boris or abhor Brexit, the only sane choice is to get on and do Brexit, and then campaign to rejoin if that's your thing.
Untrue. A hung parliament ends up with a better deal (Johnson's is goddam awful and will end the union) which is then put to the country vs Remain. It's left to the people to have the final say.
It's not chaos. It's the only way there will be a true resolution.
And, remind me, Johnson and May have been the role models of strong and stable how exactly? A Johnson victory will lead to years of unremitting chaos. Brexit was never thought through and it isn't now.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
If Labour were sensibly ruthless, they would buy Jez a new allotment shed from a grateful nation (bottom line is that played 2 lost 2 against May and Johnson is not good), have a leadership election, and nominate someone inoffensive and senior as a potential PM for the six months until the next GE under a new leader.
If the Conservatives were sensibly ruthless, they'd get Boris to mumble something about "the people have spoken and said meh", offer a BINO / Boris plan referendum, dump some of the more dreadful policies and Cabinet members and dare the opposition to unite to vote him down.
First trouble is, I don't think either party is in a mood to be sensibly ruthless.
Second trouble is, if you think (as I do) that PM Corbyn and PM Johnson without the supervision of being a minority government are both terrible plans, then a Johnson minority government is as good as it can get.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
Well done, that is the most stupid thing you have said on this forum to date, and you certainly set that bar high. Brexit is something that you support; a policy for the economically illiterate. Any job losses are at the door, not of those that voted for it in good faith, but the lying weasels that promoted in the first place, and the politically brain dead who continue to make excuses for them.
Well, it's not only the fault of the nobheads who voted for it. It's really down to the governments that have utterly failed to build a consensus around the outcome because they were obsessed with their own populist agenda and their own divisions. A senior government figure was even quoted as saying "fuck business". Luckily he sank without trace. I think that's what MarqueeMark's really complaining about.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
We are all f##ked. Year of messing about and Corbynonmics is here to stay.
However much you dislike Boris or abhor Brexit, the only sane choice is to get on and do Brexit, and then campaign to rejoin if that's your thing.
Untrue. A hung parliament ends up with a better deal (Johnson's is goddam awful and will end the union) which is then put to the country vs Remain. It's left to the people to have the final say.
It's not chaos. It's the only way there will be a true resolution.
And, remind me, Johnson and May have been the role models of strong and stable how exactly? A Johnson victory will lead to years of unremitting chaos. Brexit was never thought through and it isn't now.
How does a hung parliament with Tories above 315 lead to a referendum? More likely no deal.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
We are all f##ked. Year of messing about and Corbynonmics is here to stay.
However much you dislike Boris or abhor Brexit, the only sane choice is to get on and do Brexit, and then campaign to rejoin if that's your thing.
Untrue. A hung parliament ends up with a better deal (Johnson's is goddam awful and will end the union) which is then put to the country vs Remain. It's left to the people to have the final say.
It's not chaos. It's the only way there will be a true resolution.
And, remind me, Johnson and May have been the role models of strong and stable how exactly? A Johnson victory will lead to years of unremitting chaos. Brexit was never thought through and it isn't now.
Who gets to decide your deal is “better”? Oh, wait, you. Obviously. And we just have to accept a choice between whatever crap you offer and remain? Nope, we’ll abstain and wait to win an election.
Those that voted Remain think that Leavers are being reckless with the economy. It may be worth entertaining the thought that Remainers are being similarly reckless by putting remaining in the EU ahead of the economic disaster that Corbyn and co would inflict by trashing the public finances. I voted Remain for pragmatic reasons (a very reluctant remainer). I understand those who voted leave, though I don`t agree with them. The group that I do not understand is those who enthusiastically want to remain. They never seem to give clear reasons for their enthusiasm other than a vague "we should be internationalists".
I think it's identity - not economics - on BOTH sides, as regards the more passionate advocates. The Leave side more obviously, and as discussed ad infinitum, but definitely on the Remain side too. Specifically there, it's the feeling of living in an outward looking, modern, socially relaxed and above all civilized country full of people with those self same attributes. When we Brexit it will be a kick in the stomach because it will damage our (since, yes, I feel this) sense of ourselves and what Britain is. That's where the strong feelings come from. X points off GDP over Z years? Loss of just-in-time supply chains? Chlorinated chicken? No, all valid, but it is not truly that. That is what people pretend they are mad about. Because of the desire to seem extremely rational.
Thanks, it certainly seems that way. At a LibDem branch meeting that I attended a while back (where Tom Brake was speaking). The only topic was Brexit - and how dreadful it all is. Some LibDem activists had bought along EU flags! These folk wouldn`t be seen dead with a Union Jack. It`s like when I see the Pro EU guys outside House of Commons. I find it a little bewildering and somewhat odd to actually like a government. They don`t concede that there was anything bad about the EU at all. For me it was always a column for the pros and a column for the cons. And on balance I went for remain.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
We are all f##ked. Year of messing about and Corbynonmics is here to stay.
However much you dislike Boris or abhor Brexit, the only sane choice is to get on and do Brexit, and then campaign to rejoin if that's your thing.
Untrue. A hung parliament ends up with a better deal (Johnson's is goddam awful and will end the union) which is then put to the country vs Remain. It's left to the people to have the final say.
It's not chaos. It's the only way there will be a true resolution.
And, remind me, Johnson and May have been the role models of strong and stable how exactly? A Johnson victory will lead to years of unremitting chaos. Brexit was never thought through and it isn't now.
How does a hung parliament with Tories above 315 lead to a referendum? More likely no deal.
In the short term, a hung parliament will be chaos. Even if you're arguing that "Brexit won't be done" because of various antecedent issues, these will be further delayed by anything other than a Lib Dem majority.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
We are all f##ked. Year of messing about and Corbynonmics is here to stay.
However much you dislike Boris or abhor Brexit, the only sane choice is to get on and do Brexit, and then campaign to rejoin if that's your thing.
Untrue. A hung parliament ends up with a better deal (Johnson's is goddam awful and will end the union) which is then put to the country vs Remain. It's left to the people to have the final say.
It's not chaos. It's the only way there will be a true resolution.
And, remind me, Johnson and May have been the role models of strong and stable how exactly? A Johnson victory will lead to years of unremitting chaos. Brexit was never thought through and it isn't now.
How does a hung parliament with Tories above 315 lead to a referendum? More likely no deal.
The only thing possibly more chaotic than a hung parliament is, I think, a Labour win. 2 - at the very least - more referenda and sub-6th form levels of economic tinkering.
Amazing to see some Tory Leave voters moaning about the pound crashing if the Tories don’t get a majority , oh the irony .
And then Remainers being blamed now for any job losses because of Brexit !
I dont know if they believe what they are writing or not. Somehow the people responsible for Brexit are neither Brexiters, nor the government who started the process with a majority (which they lost) and therefore decided to take sole control of what flavour Brexit we have without anyone elses input, but the people who requested a little input to the process.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
We are all f##ked. Year of messing about and Corbynonmics is here to stay.
However much you dislike Boris or abhor Brexit, the only sane choice is to get on and do Brexit, and then campaign to rejoin if that's your thing.
Untrue. A hung parliament ends up with a better deal (Johnson's is goddam awful and will end the union) which is then put to the country vs Remain. It's left to the people to have the final say.
It's not chaos. It's the only way there will be a true resolution.
And, remind me, Johnson and May have been the role models of strong and stable how exactly? A Johnson victory will lead to years of unremitting chaos. Brexit was never thought through and it isn't now.
Who gets to decide your deal is “better”? Oh, wait, you. Obviously. And we just have to accept a choice between whatever crap you offer and remain? Nope, we’ll abstain and wait to win an election.
By a "better deal" you don`t by any chance mean a deal that Leave voters wouldn`t recognise as Brexit do you?
Was bored and ended up looking through last Delta, some interesting snippets in net approvals, Johnson vs Corbyn ….
Lab Leavers: +3 vs -23. Con Remainers: -2 vs -74 (!!) Regions: Midlands -4 vs -51, North +7 vs -42, Wales -2 vs -34 Lab marginals (eng/wales): +16 vs -29 (ruh roh) Con marginals (eng/wales): +5 vs -41
Was bored and ended up looking through last Delta, some interesting snippets in net approvals, Johnson vs Corbyn ….
Lab Leavers: +3 vs -23. Con Remainers: -2 vs -74 (!!) Regions: Midlands -4 vs -51, North +7 vs -42, Wales -2 vs -34 Lab marginals (eng/wales): +16 vs -29 (ruh roh)
Ouch.
yeah, I had a look through them. The age tabs as well showed an Ouch.
Also - check the sub-section on polling intention in Lab marginals. Please be true.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
If Labour were sensibly ruthless, they would buy Jez a new allotment shed from a grateful nation (bottom line is that played 2 lost 2 against May and Johnson is not good), have a leadership election, and nominate someone inoffensive and senior as a potential PM for the six months until the next GE under a new leader.
If the Conservatives were sensibly ruthless, they'd get Boris to mumble something about "the people have spoken and said meh", offer a BINO / Boris plan referendum, dump some of the more dreadful policies and Cabinet members and dare the opposition to unite to vote him down.
First trouble is, I don't think either party is in a mood to be sensibly ruthless.
Second trouble is, if you think (as I do) that PM Corbyn and PM Johnson without the supervision of being a minority government are both terrible plans, then a Johnson minority government is as good as it can get.
I think I agree. It's a least bad choice, perhaps we could have a multiple choice referendum based on that. 😉
Those that voted Remain think that Leavers are being reckless with the economy. It may be worth entertaining the thought that Remainers are being similarly reckless by putting remaining in the EU ahead of the economic disaster that Corbyn and co would inflict by trashing the public finances. I voted Remain for pragmatic reasons (a very reluctant remainer). I understand those who voted leave, though I don`t agree with them. The group that I do not understand is those who enthusiastically want to remain. They never seem to give clear reasons for their enthusiasm other than a vague "we should be internationalists".
I think it's identity - not economics - on BOTH sides, as regards the more passionate advocates. The Leave side more obviously, and as discussed ad infinitum, but definitely on the Remain side too. Specifically there, it's the feeling of living in an outward looking, modern, socially relaxed and above all civilized country full of people with those self same attributes. When we Brexit it will be a kick in the stomach because it will damage our (since, yes, I feel this) sense of ourselves and what Britain is. That's where the strong feelings come from. X points off GDP over Z years? Loss of just-in-time supply chains? Chlorinated chicken? No, all valid, but it is not truly that. That is what people pretend they are mad about. Because of the desire to seem extremely rational.
Thanks, it certainly seems that way. At a LibDem branch meeting that I attended a while back (where Tom Brake was speaking). The only topic was Brexit - and how dreadful it all is. Some LibDem activists had bought along EU flags! These folk wouldn`t be seen dead with a Union Jack. It`s like when I see the Pro EU guys outside House of Commons. I find it a little bewildering and somewhat odd to actually like a government. They don`t concede that there was anything bad about the EU at all. For me it was always a column for the pros and a column for the cons. And on balance I went for remain.
I am similar, I can live with Brexit and in theory can see some positives, it wasnt a no brainer to decide to vote remain. What I find absurd and makes me angry is the management of Brexit by the governing party and its rejection of business, logic and competency in favour of populist unicorn chasing and lies.
Its distinctly possible not many seats will change hands so the 50-1 CON 317 bet mentioned below could be very good value!
I prefer the old Ave It.
CON gain Glasgow South!
there you go
I remember the mori in 2009 that had Cameron on 52% when baxtered gave con gain Glasgow north!
A prime example of why Baxter should be treated with extreme caution. Like malt whisky, it is widely admired, but when abused it will give you one hell of a hangover.
(SCon currently 66/1 to gain Glasgow North, behind the SNP, SLab, Greens and SLDs. David Cameron’s 52% is a distant memory.)
Amazing to see some Tory Leave voters moaning about the pound crashing if the Tories don’t get a majority , oh the irony .
And then Remainers being blamed now for any job losses because of Brexit !
I dont know if they believe what they are writing or not. Somehow the people responsible for Brexit are neither Brexiters, nor the government who started the process with a majority (which they lost) and therefore decided to take sole control of what flavour Brexit we have without anyone elses input, but the people who requested a little input to the process.
It’s amazing how so many Leavers want to avoid any responsibility for their own vote . In Leave world the Remainers now are being blamed for something they didn’t vote for !
Amazing to see some Tory Leave voters moaning about the pound crashing if the Tories don’t get a majority , oh the irony .
And then Remainers being blamed now for any job losses because of Brexit !
I dont know if they believe what they are writing or not. Somehow the people responsible for Brexit are neither Brexiters, nor the government who started the process with a majority (which they lost) and therefore decided to take sole control of what flavour Brexit we have without anyone elses input, but the people who requested a little input to the process.
It’s amazing how so many Leavers want to avoid any responsibility for their own vote . In Leave world the Remainers now are being blamed for something they didn’t vote for !
Those that voted Remain think that Leavers are being reckless with the economy. It may be worth entertaining the thought that Remainers are being similarly reckless by putting remaining in the EU ahead of the economic disaster that Corbyn and co would inflict by trashing the public finances. I voted Remain for pragmatic reasons (a very reluctant remainer). I understand those who voted leave, though I don`t agree with them. The group that I do not understand is those who enthusiastically want to remain. They never seem to give clear reasons for their enthusiasm other than a vague "we should be internationalists".
I think it's identity - not economics - on BOTH sides, as regards the more passionate advocates. The Leave side more obviously, and as discussed ad infinitum, but definitely on the Remain side too. Specifically there, it's the feeling of living in an outward looking, modern, socially relaxed and above all civilized country full of people with those self same attributes. When we Brexit it will be a kick in the stomach because it will damage our (since, yes, I feel this) sense of ourselves and what Britain is. That's where the strong feelings come from. X points off GDP over Z years? Loss of just-in-time supply chains? Chlorinated chicken? No, all valid, but it is not truly that. That is what people pretend they are mad about. Because of the desire to seem extremely rational.
Thanks, it certainly seems that way. At a LibDem branch meeting that I attended a while back (where Tom Brake was speaking). The only topic was Brexit - and how dreadful it all is. Some LibDem activists had bought along EU flags! These folk wouldn`t be seen dead with a Union Jack. It`s like when I see the Pro EU guys outside House of Commons. I find it a little bewildering and somewhat odd to actually like a government. They don`t concede that there was anything bad about the EU at all. For me it was always a column for the pros and a column for the cons. And on balance I went for remain.
I am similar, I can live with Brexit and in theory can see some positives, it wasnt a no brainer to decide to vote remain. What I find absurd and makes me angry is the management of Brexit by the governing party and its rejection of business, logic and competency in favour of populist unicorn chasing and lies.
What makes me mad is the fact that there was a referendum at all. Cameron`s in the dock. Then, to compound this, remainer MPs did not accept that direct democracy trumps representative democracy. Hence I blame them much more than the government (as Philip_Thompson says below).
Amazing to see some Tory Leave voters moaning about the pound crashing if the Tories don’t get a majority , oh the irony .
And then Remainers being blamed now for any job losses because of Brexit !
I dont know if they believe what they are writing or not. Somehow the people responsible for Brexit are neither Brexiters, nor the government who started the process with a majority (which they lost) and therefore decided to take sole control of what flavour Brexit we have without anyone elses input, but the people who requested a little input to the process.
It’s amazing how so many Leavers want to avoid any responsibility for their own vote . In Leave world the Remainers now are being blamed for something they didn’t vote for !
We haven't left yet. Thanks to Remainer MPs.
In your opinion. Reality is that we would have left much earlier with a cross party approach from May.
Amazing to see some Tory Leave voters moaning about the pound crashing if the Tories don’t get a majority , oh the irony .
And then Remainers being blamed now for any job losses because of Brexit !
I dont know if they believe what they are writing or not. Somehow the people responsible for Brexit are neither Brexiters, nor the government who started the process with a majority (which they lost) and therefore decided to take sole control of what flavour Brexit we have without anyone elses input, but the people who requested a little input to the process.
It’s amazing how so many Leavers want to avoid any responsibility for their own vote . In Leave world the Remainers now are being blamed for something they didn’t vote for !
No, I think Remain MPs are (rightly) blamed for slowing it down in a really cack-handed way, and thereby leaving the whole process in limbo. That is clearly the worst of all worlds.
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
Its distinctly possible not many seats will change hands so the 50-1 CON 317 bet mentioned below could be very good value!
I prefer the old Ave It.
CON gain Glasgow South!
there you go
I remember the mori in 2009 that had Cameron on 52% when baxtered gave con gain Glasgow north!
A prime example of why Baxter should be treated with extreme caution. Like malt whisky, it is widely admired, but when abused it will give you one hell of a hangover.
(SCon currently 66/1 to gain Glasgow North, behind the SNP, SLab, Greens and SLDs. David Cameron’s 52% is a distant memory.)
In my experience, the peatier the malt the more hangovier the hangover
Just watching the news on BBC. I see Boris doubling down on trying to take advantage of the London Bridge attack and claiming to have had a policy in his 2012 Mayoral manifesto which has been checked and is not there. My money on the 2 Cambridge seats is looking better every time he opens his mouth on this topic.
I think it's identity - not economics - on BOTH sides, as regards the more passionate advocates. The Leave side more obviously, and as discussed ad infinitum, but definitely on the Remain side too. Specifically there, it's the feeling of living in an outward looking, modern, socially relaxed and above all civilized country full of people with those self same attributes. When we Brexit it will be a kick in the stomach because it will damage our (since, yes, I feel this) sense of ourselves and what Britain is. That's where the strong feelings come from. X points off GDP over Z years? Loss of just-in-time supply chains? Chlorinated chicken? No, all valid, but it is not truly that. That is what people pretend they are mad about. Because of the desire to seem extremely rational.
Thanks, it certainly seems that way. At a LibDem branch meeting that I attended a while back (where Tom Brake was speaking). The only topic was Brexit - and how dreadful it all is. Some LibDem activists had bought along EU flags! These folk wouldn`t be seen dead with a Union Jack. It`s like when I see the Pro EU guys outside House of Commons. I find it a little bewildering and somewhat odd to actually like a government. They don`t concede that there was anything bad about the EU at all. For me it was always a column for the pros and a column for the cons. And on balance I went for remain.
I am similar, I can live with Brexit and in theory can see some positives, it wasnt a no brainer to decide to vote remain. What I find absurd and makes me angry is the management of Brexit by the governing party and its rejection of business, logic and competency in favour of populist unicorn chasing and lies.
What makes me mad is the fact that there was a referendum at all. Cameron`s in the dock. Then, to compound this, remainer MPs did not accept that direct democracy trumps representative democracy. Hence I blame them much more than the government (as Philip_Thompson says below).
Referenda work when the govt wants the change that is being promised, ideally backed by a specific plan. A govt introducing a referendum for a change it doesnt want to happen is obviously an invitation for disaster as we have found out. I dont think the remainer MPs were to blame, they were never in charge of the process and over 5 out of 6 MPs voted for some flavour of Brexit, why they should have to accept May's form of Brexit without any of their own input has never been explained.
Just watching the news on BBC. I see Boris doubling down on trying to take advantage of the London Bridge attack and claiming to have had a policy in his 2012 Mayoral manifesto which has been checked and is not there. My money on the 2 Cambridge seats is looking better every time he opens his mouth on this topic.
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
Caveats around size of subsamples would be the obvious riposte I guess. Eg Midlands is 5%, North 6%, Wales 11%. Also, this was a poll with headline Con+13, and similarly very good approval numbers (relative to Corbyn), so obviously subsamples are going to look v good for him too. Oh, and we don't know if Lab Leavers might find themselves unable to make the direct switch to Con once actually in the polling booth (phaps to BXP benefit?).
Having said all that, some terrible numbers for Corbyn.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
That's very much OTT and unnecessary.
I fail to see why! If he sends provocative letters out like that, he must expect a similar response.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
Sky News still think it is The Brexit Election too.
Comments
Who is just keeping on keeping on?
As close as ICM have it, if opinium or deltapoll are right labour will be completely ballsed next week.
There is no evidence of tory to lab switching and the leader ratings are not closing anymore. See deltapoll sunday for this.
Tory majority strong favourite, possibly a very large one. There is no jez surge this time
Berwick you have Lib Dems on 40% but the constituency poll had 20%.
A week ago I thought Guildford and Winchester looked good shouts for Lib Dem gains but I just can’t see it now.
Only St Albans, Cheltenham and South Cambs would I be confident of outside of London.
They will not support a referendum
The Yorkshire Party
Plus it gives immense power for the SNP to play silly buggers by being principled. Imagine the farcical situation where the Tories have an English-only majority and more seats than Labour but Labour get into Downing Street because of SNP support . . . but then the SNP say they're abstaining on all English-only legislation. Westminster would be gridlocked on devolved issues. The Tories would be in a position to reject all English-only legislation because they'd have a majority with the SNP abstaining. The SNP would be in a position to make Westminster absurd and the UK itself unstable because of principled abstentionism.
Being wrong is bad business for them, so we know all the pollsters are doing everything they can to be bang on. That being the case it would be good to get eight of exactly how and why they differ. I’ve seen bits and pieces of discussion on this but nothing comprehensive that I would trust.
SLab have been weak here for decades, and died on their arse in the Euros, dipping below 3%, with the LDs scraping above them. Whether these voters stick with their preferred party or go for a tactical vote is the unknown factor, but these voters are already pretty squeezed, there isn't much further for SLab to fall here. There is a bedrock of LDs, but we are talking 8-10% of the constituency, unless they buck national trends completely, which I am seeing no evidence for on the ground.
BRS is very much farming country, and the SCon vote will hold up amongst landowners/country types. SNP vote will hold up in the small towns e.g. Duns, Eyemouth, Gala. I'm expecting a vote similar to 2017, so SNP 35%ish, SCon 50% ish.
(I prefer the old Stuart Dickson too. He had a smaller stomach.)
Lab Leavers: +3 vs -23.
Con Remainers: -2 vs -74 (!!)
Regions: Midlands -4 vs -51, North +7 vs -42, Wales -2 vs -34
Lab marginals (eng/wales): +16 vs -29 (ruh roh)
Con marginals (eng/wales): +5 vs -41
CON: 42.4% (+0.2)
LAB: 31.8% (+2.1)
LDEM: 13.6% (-1.0)
BREX: 3.6% (-0.7)
GRN: 3.1% (-0.2)
Chgs. w/ last Monday (25 Nov)
With only 9 campaigning days to go, that's an average Con lead of 10.6%, enough to knock Corbyn and his merry band of anti-patriots and economic illiterates into oblivion...
I hope
Can imagine lots of remainers cheering wildly if its a hung parliament not appreciating this and lulled into a false sense of security about no deal because it was indeed extremely unlikely throughout the last parliament despite media reports and bluffs from both PMs.
BRS is the last to fall seat.
Even if SCons poll at 16% they will hold BRS.
Price now cut to 33-1.
Con are just 40/1 to gain Glasgow South.
I wonder how many constituents remember their old MP Teddy Taylor? When he was first elected, in 1964, the modern Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party didn’t exist. He was one of the last Unionist Party MPs.
... Donald Trump is on his way.
If Remain wins a 2nd ref the Tories will put Leave in their next manifesto, so we are guaranteed a THIRD referendum very soon. If Leave wins do we Leave immediately or do we have another election to choose how we Leave, or what?
It's insane.
However much you dislike Boris or abhor Brexit, the only sane choice is to get on and do Brexit, and then campaign to rejoin if that's your thing.
A better and much bigger example might be the complete victory of L&G and their then CEO, Dave Prosser over the venal and political decision of the FSA (predeccessor of the FCA) to go after them for mis-selling which never occurred. He won the appeal (in 2005) on every ground and the FSA were exposed for the political yes men and incompetents that they were.
Warrington South - 2017
Lab 48.4
Con 44.3
LD 5.4
Ind 2.0
From national figures of Con 44, Lab 41, LD 8
Warrington South - 2019 Barnesian model
Lab 48
Con 46
LD 6
BXP 1
From national figures of Con 42, Lab 32, LD 14, BXP 4
How can you end up with 2017 and 2019 seat figures almost identical despite very different national figures?
It's not chaos. It's the only way there will be a true resolution.
And, remind me, Johnson and May have been the role models of strong and stable how exactly? A Johnson victory will lead to years of unremitting chaos. Brexit was never thought through and it isn't now.
And then Remainers being blamed now for any job losses because of Brexit !
If the Conservatives were sensibly ruthless, they'd get Boris to mumble something about "the people have spoken and said meh", offer a BINO / Boris plan referendum, dump some of the more dreadful policies and Cabinet members and dare the opposition to unite to vote him down.
First trouble is, I don't think either party is in a mood to be sensibly ruthless.
Second trouble is, if you think (as I do) that PM Corbyn and PM Johnson without the supervision of being a minority government are both terrible plans, then a Johnson minority government is as good as it can get.
At a LibDem branch meeting that I attended a while back (where Tom Brake was speaking). The only topic was Brexit - and how dreadful it all is. Some LibDem activists had bought along EU flags! These folk wouldn`t be seen dead with a Union Jack. It`s like when I see the Pro EU guys outside House of Commons. I find it a little bewildering and somewhat odd to actually like a government. They don`t concede that there was anything bad about the EU at all.
For me it was always a column for the pros and a column for the cons. And on balance I went for remain.
I don't expect them to be hit but you never know.
Which we're not going to get.
Are we underestimating the Tory seats number?
Also - check the sub-section on polling intention in Lab marginals. Please be true.
Maybe go back to free owls?
Like malt whisky, it is widely admired, but when abused it will give you one hell of a hangover.
(SCon currently 66/1 to gain Glasgow North, behind the SNP, SLab, Greens and SLDs. David Cameron’s 52% is a distant memory.)
Then, to compound this, remainer MPs did not accept that direct democracy trumps representative democracy.
Hence I blame them much more than the government (as Philip_Thompson says below).
Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
I dont think the remainer MPs were to blame, they were never in charge of the process and over 5 out of 6 MPs voted for some flavour of Brexit, why they should have to accept May's form of Brexit without any of their own input has never been explained.
Caveats around size of subsamples would be the obvious riposte I guess. Eg Midlands is 5%, North 6%, Wales 11%. Also, this was a poll with headline Con+13, and similarly very good approval numbers (relative to Corbyn), so obviously subsamples are going to look v good for him too. Oh, and we don't know if Lab Leavers might find themselves unable to make the direct switch to Con once actually in the polling booth (phaps to BXP benefit?).
Having said all that, some terrible numbers for Corbyn.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
(only kidding - will be used as the first data-point for next Sunday's ELBOW)