I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
That's very much OTT and unnecessary.
I fail to see why! If he sends provocative letters out like that, he must expect a similar response.
Someone advocating voting for a political party is perfectly normal and reasonable, no matter if they used to support a different one. We are not locked into a political alignment for life.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
That's very much OTT and unnecessary.
I fail to see why! If he sends provocative letters out like that, he must expect a similar response.
Someone advocating voting for a political party is perfectly normal and reasonable, no matter if they used to support a different one. We are not locked into a political alignment for life.
Pierre Laval was another politician who started out on the Left and swung very sharply to the Right.
Just watching the news on BBC. I see Boris doubling down on trying to take advantage of the London Bridge attack and claiming to have had a policy in his 2012 Mayoral manifesto which has been checked and is not there. My money on the 2 Cambridge seats is looking better every time he opens his mouth on this topic.
Remember Bigot-gate. Which constituency did it happen in? It was a Lib/Lab marginal then.
What was the effect of Bigot-gate on the constituency result? And Bigot-gate was a far, far bigger deal.
You're wrong. Cambridge will be LAB hold, S. Cambs will be TORY hold.
Just watching the news on BBC. I see Boris doubling down on trying to take advantage of the London Bridge attack and claiming to have had a policy in his 2012 Mayoral manifesto which has been checked and is not there. My money on the 2 Cambridge seats is looking better every time he opens his mouth on this topic.
I detest Jeremy Corbyn with avengence but Johnson's vile cynicism over London Bridge is nothing short of despicable. Johnson's apologists on here who justify his tone and language over this incident should also think about the behaviour of their idol, and hang their heads in shame.
On a more positive note, the Baggies to win at Preston. Boing, boing!
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
That's very much OTT and unnecessary.
I fail to see why! If he sends provocative letters out like that, he must expect a similar response.
Someone advocating voting for a political party is perfectly normal and reasonable, no matter if they used to support a different one. We are not locked into a political alignment for life.
Pierre Laval was another politician who started out on the Left and swung very sharply to the Right.
I don’t see the constituency for Labour coming second on the IoW, whilst there is a strong hippie/alternative movement that goes for the Greens.
I would be surprised if it is even close. Friends who live there tell me that Lowthion is well liked and regarded even by other parties members and has been quietly building her base. She will not win but should move her vote % over 25%.
Very personable. Doesn’t seem to be a bigot about her beliefs. Met her a couple of times and was impressed.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
One thing in the Tories' favour is the vox pop in the papers.
All the polls show the parties converging, Corbyn have a mini surge etc. Yet every single in-the-field, I'm-here-with-the-canvassers report is full of Northerners and Midlanders saying they hate Corbyn and want Brexit done.
The Tories could scrape home just with those Leavery seats from Brum to the Toon.
Just watching the news on BBC. I see Boris doubling down on trying to take advantage of the London Bridge attack and claiming to have had a policy in his 2012 Mayoral manifesto which has been checked and is not there. My money on the 2 Cambridge seats is looking better every time he opens his mouth on this topic.
I think this might have traction. "Boris" is shamelessly leveraging the murder of an admirable young man to promote both himself and policies which the deceased was devoting much of his life to opposing. His grieving family clearly feel - and with good reason - that "Boris" is disrespecting the memory of their son. It's potentially toxic.
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Thanks! Always great with local knowledge. I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected? Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers. Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
I wonder if it is the historic 'journey' of the seat, making it look more volatile. Michael Moore held it for the LDs comfortably for ten years until 2015, when it went very narrowly SNP, then to SCon in '17. Clearly 2014 is a watershed moment, especially for seats along the border, with most voters having a strong opinion on constitutional matters.
SLab have been weak here for decades, and died on their arse in the Euros, dipping below 3%, with the LDs scraping above them. Whether these voters stick with their preferred party or go for a tactical vote is the unknown factor, but these voters are already pretty squeezed, there isn't much further for SLab to fall here. There is a bedrock of LDs, but we are talking 8-10% of the constituency, unless they buck national trends completely, which I am seeing no evidence for on the ground.
BRS is very much farming country, and the SCon vote will hold up amongst landowners/country types. SNP vote will hold up in the small towns e.g. Duns, Eyemouth, Gala. I'm expecting a vote similar to 2017, so SNP 35%ish, SCon 50% ish.
Which makes Shadsy’s Con price of 1/4 even more remarkable. Does Shadsy know something we don’t? (Wouldn’t be the first time.)
I loved Eyemouth the one time I visited, many years ago. Apparently there is a strong Baltic connection in the town. Smuggling illegal tea into Britain from Gothenburg, during the Napoleonic Wars. Made Gothenburg wealthy, and I’m sure Eyemouth and other small eastern ports like Montrose made a killing too.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
If you Remainers had just let us continue shooting at our feet we'd have started crawling earlier.
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
That's very much OTT and unnecessary.
I fail to see why! If he sends provocative letters out like that, he must expect a similar response.
You fail to see why comparing (1) a man adopted into a Jewish family, who is campaigning to prevent an Antisemite becoming Prime Minister, to (2) a politician who was executed for collaborating with the perpetrators of the Holocaust in which the grandmother and aunt of (1) were gassed, is OTT and unnecessary?
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
Will Sinn Fein take their seats if Mr Corbyn offers the right deal?
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers...
The Brexit believers have much in common with socialists. The imperfection of their plans is always owing to sabotage, or deviation from the true belief, and nothing to do with any inherent flaws in the project...
Except whilst successful socialist economies are like hens teeth, the vast majority of the world is outside the EU and growing much faster than it.
Perhaps successful economies that have Brexited will be like hens teeth too? After all the vast majority of the world was never in the EU or still in it
One thing in the Tories' favour is the vox pop in the papers. All the polls show the parties converging, Corbyn have a mini surge etc. Yet every single in-the-field, I'm-here-with-the-canvassers report is full of Northerners and Midlanders saying they hate Corbyn and want Brexit done. The Tories could scrape home just with those Leavery seats from Brum to the Toon.
More than scrape, if that 'mood' in those places translates to votes. C75.
Just watching the news on BBC. I see Boris doubling down on trying to take advantage of the London Bridge attack and claiming to have had a policy in his 2012 Mayoral manifesto which has been checked and is not there. My money on the 2 Cambridge seats is looking better every time he opens his mouth on this topic.
I think this might have traction. "Boris" is shamelessly leveraging the murder of an admirable young man to promote both himself and policies which the deceased was devoting much of his life to opposing. His grieving family clearly feel - and with good reason - that "Boris" is disrespecting the memory of their son. It's potentially toxic.
His dad has written a statement which appears in the Guardian . Bozo had better hope that he doesn’t give any interviews to the broadcast media . His dad is clearly very angry at what the Tories are doing.
The Brexit (unemployment) benefits continue to roll in....
So, you want to take a bow do you Remainers, for fucking up the ability of business to plan? Because those job losses should be on your consciences - and not something to gloat about....
I see that Brexiteers have moved on from saying that the sorry state of the economy is nothing to do with Brexit. It is now down to Brexit uncertainty but is somehow the fault of Remainers. If you actually look at the business surveys (eg the composite PMI) you will note that the UK surveys have basically traced the ups and downs of the euro area surveys, except that some time between 2015 and 2017 they went from being consistently stronger than the euro area to consistently weaker. I wonder what might have caused that step down?
Anyone who’s ever worked in business will know that regulatory uncertainty is a massive challenge. Any ‘blame’, such as there is, attaches itself to those wishing to prolong that period of regulatory uncertainty.
So... it is the ERG's fault? Without their opposition, Mrs May probably could have passed her Bill last year.
One thing in the Tories' favour is the vox pop in the papers. All the polls show the parties converging, Corbyn have a mini surge etc. Yet every single in-the-field, I'm-here-with-the-canvassers report is full of Northerners and Midlanders saying they hate Corbyn and want Brexit done. The Tories could scrape home just with those Leavery seats from Brum to the Toon.
More than scrape, if that 'mood' in those places translates to votes. C75.
Given how bad (but just not quite bad enough for the seats to flip) the polls seem to be in many Con seats which are LD targets, the Con vote must be up in Con-Lab marginals to compensate, for a given national average.
The Tories could scrape home just with those Leavery seats from Brum to the Toon.
Yes, anecdotally. Guido has some footage of a Welsh Brexiteer former lab voter absolutely sticking it to Barry Gardiner on LBC.
The two great unknowns of this election for me is how many young people will turn up and how the North and Midlands working class will actually vote when it comes to it.
I think this might have traction. "Boris" is shamelessly leveraging the murder of an admirable young man to promote both himself and policies which the deceased was devoting much of his life to opposing. His grieving family clearly feel - and with good reason - that "Boris" is disrespecting the memory of their son. It's potentially toxic.
I don't think there is much that will change the outcome of the election bar a huge left-field offer that motivates voters enough to switch (or actually vote) in numbers.
I'm expecting Labour to make a last-minute offer on student debt and tuition fees in an attempt to encourage the youngsters in to the polling station.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
Brexit could be a settled view, which is a snag for Labour then if all those leave voters have already made up their minds. You can spin any snippet of news from any source to support your own agenda/bias.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I haven’t been on the doorsteps but I just think minds are made up on Brexit, I think if anything there has been a small shift towards leave since 2017. I’m putting myself in the shoes of voters in those 50 or so Labour defence seats with less than 5k majority and thinking will those same people all vote Labour? I think there will be switchers to the Tories and I think some Lab voters will stay at home. I don’t necessarily see much growth in the Tory vote. I cannot fathom any reason why a Tory would switch to Lab. The only hope Labour have in a lot of these seats is the BXP taking disproportionately from the Tories.
The last thing in voters minds at the ballot box will be Boris proclaiming ‘get Brexit done’, that wasn’t the case in 2017 and it is a powerful message against a Labour Party that has pivoted to a 2nd ref. The demographics are moving away from Labour
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Thanks! Always great with local knowledge. I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected? Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers. Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
I wonder if it is the historic 'journey' of the seat, making it look more volatile. Michael Moore held it for the LDs comfortably for ten years until 2015, when it went very narrowly SNP, then to SCon in '17. Clearly 2014 is a watershed moment, especially for seats along the border, with most voters having a strong opinion on constitutional matters.
SLab have been weak here for decades, and died on their arse in the Euros, dipping below 3%, with the LDs scraping above them. Whether these voters stick with their preferred party or go for a tactical vote is the unknown factor, but these voters are already pretty squeezed, there isn't much further for SLab to fall here. There is a bedrock of LDs, but we are talking 8-10% of the constituency, unless they buck national trends completely, which I am seeing no evidence for on the ground.
BRS is very much farming country, and the SCon vote will hold up amongst landowners/country types. SNP vote will hold up in the small towns e.g. Duns, Eyemouth, Gala. I'm expecting a vote similar to 2017, so SNP 35%ish, SCon 50% ish.
Which makes Shadsy’s Con price of 1/4 even more remarkable. Does Shadsy know something we don’t? (Wouldn’t be the first time.)
I loved Eyemouth the one time I visited, many years ago. Apparently there is a strong Baltic connection in the town. Smuggling illegal tea into Britain from Gothenburg, during the Napoleonic Wars. Made Gothenburg wealthy, and I’m sure Eyemouth and other small eastern ports like Montrose made a killing too.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
That's not how it's playing out around here - the only people talking about Brexit is the Tories and that's because every other one of their policies has been soundly trashed and / or upstaged by Labour...
I think this might have traction. "Boris" is shamelessly leveraging the murder of an admirable young man to promote both himself and policies which the deceased was devoting much of his life to opposing. His grieving family clearly feel - and with good reason - that "Boris" is disrespecting the memory of their son. It's potentially toxic.
I don't think there is much that will change the outcome of the election bar a huge left-field offer that motivates voters enough to switch (or actually vote) in numbers.
I'm expecting Labour to make a last-minute offer on student debt and tuition fees in an attempt to encourage the youngsters in to the polling station.
Those students are massively left leaning anyway. It's Labour leave voters who will decide this election.
The Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party are FAV in just 8 of the country’s 59 seats (just under 14%). All are currently Tory-held. Con price, shortest to longest: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 1/4 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 1/4 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 4/9 Dumfries and Galloway 4/6 Banff and Buchan 4/5 East Renfrewshire 17/20 Moray 17/20 Gordon 10/11 In the remaining 5 Tory-held seats, the SNP are FAV. Here are the Con prices, shortest to longest: Aberdeen South (incumbent sacked) EVS Ochil and South Perthshire 6/5 Angus 13/10 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (incumbent retired) 6/4 Stirling 11/4 I consider those first four (Berwickshire to Galloway) to be fantastic prices. I just cannot see the Tories losing any of them, unless something truly astonishing happens in the final week. That Dumfries and Galloway price of 4/6 deserves special mention.
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Thanks! Always great with local knowledge. I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected? Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers. Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
The price for BRS is insane. I backed it when it was 1.33 and regret not pouring more on.
BRS is the last to fall seat.
Even if SCons poll at 16% they will hold BRS.
I concur. Heck, the SCons could poll 10% and they’d still hold BRS. I think Shadsy must have done an Ebenezer Scroggie and dedicated himself to a life of cheerfully distributing charity.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I haven’t been on the doorsteps but I just think minds are made up on Brexit, I think if anything there has been a small shift towards leave since 2017. I’m putting myself in the shoes of voters in those 50 or so Labour defence seats with less than 5k majority and thinking will those same people all vote Labour? I think there will be switchers to the Tories and I think some Lab voters will stay at home. I don’t necessarily see much growth in the Tory vote. I cannot fathom any reason why a Tory would switch to Lab. The only hope Labour have in a lot of these seats is the BXP taking disproportionately from the Tories.
The last thing in voters minds at the ballot box will be Boris proclaiming ‘get Brexit done’, that wasn’t the case in 2017 and it is a powerful message against a Labour Party that has pivoted to a 2nd ref. The demographics are moving away from Labour
If the leave demographics are dying out under what basis is the demographics moving against labour?
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
That's not how it's playing out around here - the only people talking about Brexit is the Tories and that's because every other one of their policies has been soundly trashed and / or upstaged by Labour...
Just imagine where labour would be with any half sane leader
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
That's very much OTT and unnecessary.
I fail to see why! If he sends provocative letters out like that, he must expect a similar response.
You fail to see why comparing (1) a man adopted into a Jewish family, who is campaigning to prevent an Antisemite becoming Prime Minister, to (2) a politician who was executed for collaborating with the perpetrators of the Holocaust in which the grandmother and aunt of (1) were gassed, is OTT and unnecessary?
OK.
If he acts an instrument of pro-Tory propaganda which unsolicited has been pushed through my letterbox , I am entitled to make a suitable response which might discomfit him.
For Ave It: Con are just 40/1 to gain Glasgow South.
I wonder how many constituents remember their old MP Teddy Taylor? When he was first elected, in 1964, the modern Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party didn’t exist. He was one of the last Unionist Party MPs.
Yes I remember when Glasgow Cathcart was CON. LAB gained it against the tide in 1979 and again on boundary changes in 1983.
It wasn’t “against the tide” in Scotland. Scots disdained Maggie, and the feeling was mutual.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
That's not how it's playing out around here - the only people talking about Brexit is the Tories and that's because every other one of their policies has been soundly trashed and / or upstaged by Labour...
Just imagine where labour would be with any half sane leader
Indeed, but your boy is fast approaching the crossover point with Corbyn for unpleasantness, bigotry and sheer stupidity!
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I haven’t been on the doorsteps but I just think minds are made up on Brexit, I think if anything there has been a small shift towards leave since 2017. I’m putting myself in the shoes of voters in those 50 or so Labour defence seats with less than 5k majority and thinking will those same people all vote Labour? I think there will be switchers to the Tories and I think some Lab voters will stay at home. I don’t necessarily see much growth in the Tory vote. I cannot fathom any reason why a Tory would switch to Lab. The only hope Labour have in a lot of these seats is the BXP taking disproportionately from the Tories.
The last thing in voters minds at the ballot box will be Boris proclaiming ‘get Brexit done’, that wasn’t the case in 2017 and it is a powerful message against a Labour Party that has pivoted to a 2nd ref. The demographics are moving away from Labour
If the leave demographics are dying out under what basis is the demographics moving against labour?
How many have died in 2 years? And then how many have got older, are the seats getting any younger, are they getting more ethnically diverse? Clearly the WWC is shifting towards the Cons. Maybe it is not so much the people’s values and views are moving towards Con more that Labour values and views are moving away from them. Parliament/Labour ignoring the leave vote wasn’t really a big thing in 2017 but it certainly is now.
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
That's very much OTT and unnecessary.
I fail to see why! If he sends provocative letters out like that, he must expect a similar response.
You fail to see why comparing (1) a man adopted into a Jewish family, who is campaigning to prevent an Antisemite becoming Prime Minister, to (2) a politician who was executed for collaborating with the perpetrators of the Holocaust in which the grandmother and aunt of (1) were gassed, is OTT and unnecessary?
OK.
If he acts an instrument of pro-Tory propaganda which unsolicited has been pushed through my letterbox , I am entitled to make a suitable response which might discomfit him.
You and the Nazis and their accomplices. Norwich: A Warning From History
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
That's not how it's playing out around here - the only people talking about Brexit is the Tories and that's because every other one of their policies has been soundly trashed and / or upstaged by Labour...
Just imagine where labour would be with any half sane leader
The fact that they're polling as high as they are with a terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, anti Jewish racist as their leader is terrifying enough.
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Thanks! Always great with local knowledge. I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected? Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers. Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
I wonder if it is the historic 'journey' of the seat, making it look more volatile. Michael Moore held it for the LDs comfortably for ten years until 2015, when it went very narrowly SNP, then to SCon in '17. Clearly 2014 is a watershed moment, especially for seats along the border, with most voters having a strong opinion on constitutional matters.
SLab have been weak here for decades, and died on their arse in the Euros, dipping below 3%, with the LDs scraping above them. Whether these voters stick with their preferred party or go for a tactical vote is the unknown factor, but these voters are already pretty squeezed, there isn't much further for SLab to fall here. There is a bedrock of LDs, but we are talking 8-10% of the constituency, unless they buck national trends completely, which I am seeing no evidence for on the ground.
BRS is very much farming country, and the SCon vote will hold up amongst landowners/country types. SNP vote will hold up in the small towns e.g. Duns, Eyemouth, Gala. I'm expecting a vote similar to 2017, so SNP 35%ish, SCon 50% ish.
Which makes Shadsy’s Con price of 1/4 even more remarkable. Does Shadsy know something we don’t? (Wouldn’t be the first time.)
I loved Eyemouth the one time I visited, many years ago. Apparently there is a strong Baltic connection in the town. Smuggling illegal tea into Britain from Gothenburg, during the Napoleonic Wars. Made Gothenburg wealthy, and I’m sure Eyemouth and other small eastern ports like Montrose made a killing too.
Put it this way Eek. Do you feel confident in those Labour marginal seats with a leave vote above 55% that 90% or more of the Labour 2017 voters will be voting Labour again this time?
I'm in BRS, and it will be a safe Tory hold. No sign of Labour or LD campaign at all, so they seem to have abandoned the seat for the Tories and SNP to scrap over. Calum Kerr has strong support, particularly in the less affluent eastern parts of the constituency, but not enough to unseat Lamont.
Thanks! Always great with local knowledge. I am surprised to note that there are still 7,000 SLab and SLD voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Do you think these people will stick with those parties, or is further seepage to SNP and SCon to be expected? Have you had any indication whatsoever of SCon to SLD tactical unwind? In my patch - Ross, Skye & Lochaber - the SCon vote looks very shaky. The local Lib Dems are all smiles. The Tories has a great 2nd place last time (25%), but word on the street is that they are a busted flush. For a start, they don’t seem to have many canvassers. Why do you think the Con price isn’t shorter in BRS? A 25% return in such a short period just seems absolutely bonkers.
I wonder if it is the historic 'journey' of the seat, making it look more volatile. Michael Moore held it for the LDs comfortably for ten years until 2015, when it went very narrowly SNP, then to SCon in '17. Clearly 2014 is a watershed moment, especially for seats along the border, with most voters having a strong opinion on constitutional matters.
SLab have been weak here for decades, and died on their arse in the Euros, dipping below 3%, with the LDs scraping above them. Whether these voters stick with their preferred party or go for a tactical vote is the unknown factor, but these voters are already pretty squ
BRS is very much farming country, and the SCon vote will hold up amongst landowners/country types. SNP vote will hold up in the small towns e.g. Duns, Eyemouth, Gala. I'm expecting a vote similar to 2017, so SNP 35%ish, SCon 50% ish.
Which makes Shadsy’s Con price of 1/4 even more remarkable. Does Shadsy know something we don’t? (Wouldn’t be the first time.)
I loved Eyemouth the one time I visited, many years ago. Apparently there is a strong Baltic connection in the town. Smuggling illegal tea into Britain from Gothenburg, during the Napoleonic Wars. Made Gothenburg wealthy, and I’m sure Eyemouth and other small eastern ports like Montrose made a killing too.
How many have died in 2 years? And then how many have got older, are the seats getting any younger, are they getting more ethnically diverse? Clearly the WWC is shifting towards the Cons. Maybe it is not so much the people’s values and views are moving towards Con more that Labour values and views are moving away from them. Parliament/Labour ignoring the leave vote wasn’t really a big thing in 2017 but it certainly is now.
I live in Norwich North and am surprised to have just received a communication from Mainstream – a letter from Ian Austin former Labour MP for Dudley North recommending that I vote Tory! Unfortunately there is no return address indicated . It would give me great pleasure to send back this leaflet , whilst informing Austin that I see him as very much a Pierre Laval figure.
That's very much OTT and unnecessary.
I fail to see why! If he sends provocative letters out like that, he must expect a similar response.
You fail to see why comparing (1) a man adopted into a Jewish family, who is campaigning to prevent an Antisemite becoming Prime Minister, to (2) a politician who was executed for collaborating with the perpetrators of the Holocaust in which the grandmother and aunt of (1) were gassed, is OTT and unnecessary?
OK.
If he acts an instrument of pro-Tory propaganda which unsolicited has been pushed through my letterbox , I am entitled to make a suitable response which might discomfit him.
You are legally yes, and I would defend your legal right to do so even if its offensive and horrific. Free speech is important. No idea why you think it is in your or anyones interest to be so offensive though and it is absurd for you to fail to see why others think its OTT and unnecessary.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
That's not how it's playing out around here - the only people talking about Brexit is the Tories and that's because every other one of their policies has been soundly trashed and / or upstaged by Labour...
Just imagine where labour would be with any half sane leader
The fact that they're polling as high as they are with a terrorist sympathising, economically illiterate, anti Jewish racist as their leader is terrifying enough.
Not so difficult to see when his opponent is an economically illiterate, homophobic, anti Muslim, racist.
My overall prediction is still a narrow Boris majority, as it was at the very beginning.
But boy..... it looks close now.
Has anyone put their mind to what will happen if it is a NOM with Blues most seats, but not enough?
Will Sturgeon and Swinson really prop up a disliked and pathetic Corbyn government? And if they do, to get a new EU referendum, what then? How long will it take? 9 months? More? Who will govern in the meantime, what will they do, and what is the plan if the result is, as is very possible, Leave????
Will Sinn Fein take their seats if Mr Corbyn offers the right deal?
The Tories could scrape home just with those Leavery seats from Brum to the Toon.
Yes, anecdotally. Guido has some footage of a Welsh Brexiteer former lab voter absolutely sticking it to Barry Gardiner on LBC.
The two great unknowns of this election for me is how many young people will turn up and how the North and Midlands working class will actually vote when it comes to it.
The answer to that is i think a few more than expected on the first and a few less than hoped for in the second. If tories are relying on the once in their life voters from 2016 then they may be disappointed.
I have put the latest ICM into my model. I have also amended my assumption about Green tactical voting. I have changed it from 40/40 for Lab/LD to 60/20 on the grounds that there a lot more marginal Labour seats where the Greens are likely to vote tactically. The green vote is only about 3% but it makes a difference on the margin. Lab now hold Cambridge, Kensington, Portsmoth S, Bermondsey and Con hold Winchester. Tories four short of a majority. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing EDIT I also assume no transfers from BXP to Labour.
Can you explain Warrington South to me please? That's virtually an identical result to last time which seems odd as there should have been some swings surely?
I haven't kept a record of the previous prediction. I would expect a small swing to Labour based on the polls.
Sorry I wasn't clear. I mean your model is currently predicting an almost identical result to 2017. Despite the fact that there have been major changes from 2017 to 2019 in your national percentages your outcome for that seat is virtually unchanged.
Warrington South - 2017 Lab 48.4 Con 44.3 LD 5.4 Ind 2.0 From national figures of Con 44, Lab 41, LD 8
Warrington South - 2019 Barnesian model Lab 48 Con 46 LD 6 BXP 1 From national figures of Con 42, Lab 32, LD 14, BXP 4
How can you end up with 2017 and 2019 seat figures almost identical despite very different national figures?
The Con share is virtually unchanged because the slight reduction in national share is offset by BXP tacticals. The Lab share is well down on national share but offset by much higher LD and Green tacticals. I haven't time to go through the detailed arithmetic as I'm just going out for a training session on how to run a committee room.
I wonder if it is the historic 'journey' of the seat, making it look more volatile. Michael Moore held it for the LDs comfortably for ten years until 2015, when it went very narrowly SNP, then to SCon in '17. Clearly 2014 is a watershed moment, especially for seats along the border, with most voters having a strong opinion on constitutional matters.
SLab have been weak here for decades, and died on their arse in the Euros, dipping below 3%, with the LDs scraping above them. Whether these voters stick with their preferred party or go for a tactical vote is the unknown factor, but these voters are already pretty squeezed, there isn't much further for SLab to fall here. There is a bedrock of LDs, but we are talking 8-10% of the constituency, unless they buck national trends completely, which I am seeing no evidence for on the ground.
BRS is very much farming country, and the SCon vote will hold up amongst landowners/country types. SNP vote will hold up in the small towns e.g. Duns, Eyemouth, Gala. I'm expecting a vote similar to 2017, so SNP 35%ish, SCon 50% ish.
Which makes Shadsy’s Con price of 1/4 even more remarkable. Does Shadsy know something we don’t? (Wouldn’t be the first time.)
I loved Eyemouth the one time I visited, many years ago. Apparently there is a strong Baltic connection in the town. Smuggling illegal tea into Britain from Gothenburg, during the Napoleonic Wars. Made Gothenburg wealthy, and I’m sure Eyemouth and other small eastern ports like Montrose made a killing too.
But they don't grow tea in Sweeden
No. Although this will come as a shock to proud Unionists, the Yookay did not in fact invent international trade. Swedes, assisted by a Scot (Colin Campbell, an Edinburgh councillor) and a German, established the Swedish East India Company in the 18th century. This hugely successful enterprise took Swedish goods to Cadiz, exchanged them for the Spaniard’s looted American silver; took the silver to Canton and exchanged it for porcelain, silk, spices, and most importantly tea; auctioned off the easy stuff in Gothenburg and smuggled the extortionately expensive tea into eastern Scotland, whereby it made its way onto the tables of nobs. Incidentally, although tea was never grown in Sweden, I was amazed to find that tobacco was once an important Swedish crop. They lacked of course access to Virginia etc.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
That's not how it's playing out around here - the only people talking about Brexit is the Tories and that's because every other one of their policies has been soundly trashed and / or upstaged by Labour...
Just imagine where labour would be with any half sane leader
Indeed, but your boy is fast approaching the crossover point with Corbyn for unpleasantness, bigotry and sheer stupidity!
He is not my boy and in an ideal world there would be a better choice
Interesting quote from an LBC journalist: "Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign. Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump. But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet." It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else. Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I hope you’re right Nick. If Labour, the SNP and the Greens can keep Brexit off the agenda for just 10 more days then an awful lot of Tory bulls on the spread markets are going to end 2019 deep, deep into the red. Funnily enough, The Clown’s fear of journalists is assisting our cause. Trump helps too.
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
One thing in the Tories' favour is the vox pop in the papers.
All the polls show the parties converging, Corbyn have a mini surge etc. Yet every single in-the-field, I'm-here-with-the-canvassers report is full of Northerners and Midlanders saying they hate Corbyn and want Brexit done.
The Tories could scrape home just with those Leavery seats from Brum to the Toon.
The Toon? Blue? You been on the wacky backy again Sean?
"Just as an aside, it's been more than two weeks since I've done a purely Brexit story in this election campaign.
Racism, the NHS, telling the truth (or not), police numbers, Twitter take-overs, polls, terror, and tomorrow Trump.
But Brexit. That's been strangely quiet."
It's also my impression from the doorstep. People have largely filed Brexit as "Too fraught to worry about" and are talking about everything else.
Which is a snag for the Tories, the LibDems and the Brexit Party, all of whom see it as "The Brexit election", but quite good for Labour, Greens and the SNP, all of whom prefer to be talking about other subjects like most of those above.
I think the issue is the LBC journalist Nick
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
One thing in the Tories' favour is the vox pop in the papers.
All the polls show the parties converging, Corbyn have a mini surge etc. Yet every single in-the-field, I'm-here-with-the-canvassers report is full of Northerners and Midlanders saying they hate Corbyn and want Brexit done.
The Tories could scrape home just with those Leavery seats from Brum to the Toon.
The Toon? Blue? You been on the wacky backy again Sean?
Not the Toon but it wouldn't surprise me if the North goes Blue overall.
But since when was Brum in the North? Brum has never been Northern.
Those aren't the only categories though are they? Innovators can get in through other schemes which is perhaps why that visa system is underutilised. As for the chart of the entrepreneur scheme, that YOU chose to highlight, that seems to show increasing numbers in recent years. Thousands of entrepreneurs per year coming here is a good thing not a bad thing in my eyes.
At least you've expanded from just Russian Oligarchs now, but unless you are claiming that 200k "Russian oligarchs, asylum seekers and family members" came last year the evidence does show the points system is working at attracting people - increasing numbers of people in fact. As for family members, not sure why you'd want to exclude or trivialise them? Same for asylum seekers.
42% of immigration is either under 16 or over 65 so obviously family members with more family member immigration from outside of the EU.
Quite. The chart above does nothing to support @Philip_Thompson ’s contention that our points based system is geared towards the “brightest and best”. The number of people it lets in based on their own merits is tiny and getting smaller.
The point would be relevant if I'd said we should permit the best and brightest but tell them to leave their children behind. I would think if someone talented were permitted in they would and should be able to bring their family with them.
They can normally only bring dependents. Roughly 2,000 people on average have settled every year on an entrepreneur visa since the scheme began. How many young kids do they each have to bring the total up to between 100,000 and 200,000 per year? Are these all highly skilled rabbits? Many of these family members are, admittedly, those of Tier 2 migrants - but that is a sponsored category that has a labour market test not a skills test. Many more are people Brits like me who married someone from outside the EEA.
Also, I’m still waiting for you to enlighten me on these “other schemes” for innovators you confidently asserted on the previous thread.
I believe a lot is chain migration dating from Blair’s reforms
For Ave It: Con are just 40/1 to gain Glasgow South.
I wonder how many constituents remember their old MP Teddy Taylor? When he was first elected, in 1964, the modern Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party didn’t exist. He was one of the last Unionist Party MPs.
Yes I remember when Glasgow Cathcart was CON. LAB gained it against the tide in 1979 and again on boundary changes in 1983.
It wasn’t “against the tide” in Scotland. Scots disdained Maggie, and the feeling was mutual.
Sadly now they inflict a cruel austere Tory bigot government on the whole country so claiming they hated Maggie will not get the selfish miserable sods back in anyones favour.
For Ave It: Con are just 40/1 to gain Glasgow South.
I wonder how many constituents remember their old MP Teddy Taylor? When he was first elected, in 1964, the modern Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party didn’t exist. He was one of the last Unionist Party MPs.
Yes I remember when Glasgow Cathcart was CON. LAB gained it against the tide in 1979 and again on boundary changes in 1983.
It wasn’t “against the tide” in Scotland. Scots disdained Maggie, and the feeling was mutual.
Sadly now they inflict a cruel austere Tory bigot government on the whole country so claiming they hated Maggie will not get the selfish miserable sods back in anyones favour.
You win! PB’s miserable mendacious moanie post of the day. Outstanding work.
Comments
London and inside the M25 is a million miles from the midlands, the north and Wales and in these strong leave areas it is very much the issue and the election will be won there by either Boris maintaining his lead or Corbyn pealing some leave voters back to labour
I have no idea how this pans out but I cannot see PM Corbyn to be fair
What was the effect of Bigot-gate on the constituency result? And Bigot-gate was a far, far bigger deal.
You're wrong. Cambridge will be LAB hold, S. Cambs will be TORY hold.
On a more positive note, the Baggies to win at Preston. Boing, boing!
All the polls show the parties converging, Corbyn have a mini surge etc. Yet every single in-the-field, I'm-here-with-the-canvassers report is full of Northerners and Midlanders saying they hate Corbyn and want Brexit done.
The Tories could scrape home just with those Leavery seats from Brum to the Toon.
I loved Eyemouth the one time I visited, many years ago. Apparently there is a strong Baltic connection in the town. Smuggling illegal tea into Britain from Gothenburg, during the Napoleonic Wars. Made Gothenburg wealthy, and I’m sure Eyemouth and other small eastern ports like Montrose made a killing too.
OK.
Good evening, everyone.
Yes, anecdotally. Guido has some footage of a Welsh Brexiteer former lab voter absolutely sticking it to Barry Gardiner on LBC.
The two great unknowns of this election for me is how many young people will turn up and how the North and Midlands working class will actually vote when it comes to it.
I'm expecting Labour to make a last-minute offer on student debt and tuition fees in an attempt to encourage the youngsters in to the polling station.
The last thing in voters minds at the ballot box will be Boris proclaiming ‘get Brexit done’, that wasn’t the case in 2017 and it is a powerful message against a Labour Party that has pivoted to a 2nd ref. The demographics are moving away from Labour
https://www.scotsman.com/news-2-15012/revealed-the-scot-who-inspired-dickens-scrooge-1-571985
Scots disdained Maggie, and the feeling was mutual.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_East_India_Company
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yorkshire_Tea
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/final-say-remain-leave-second-referendum-brexit-no-deal-crossover-day-a8541576.html
Good evening
New Thread
The Lab share is well down on national share but offset by much higher LD and Green tacticals.
I haven't time to go through the detailed arithmetic as I'm just going out for a training session on how to run a committee room.
Budget cuts to a host of agencies as warned by a parliament committee would lead to problems .
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7747555/Jeremy-Corbyn-uses-London-Bridge-terror-attack-memorial-image-election-video.html
https://order-order.com/2019/12/02/corbyn-made-multiple-tv-appearences-islam-channel-censured-ofcom-supporting-marital-rape/
Classic Jezbollah
Swedes, assisted by a Scot (Colin Campbell, an Edinburgh councillor) and a German, established the Swedish East India Company in the 18th century. This hugely successful enterprise took Swedish goods to Cadiz, exchanged them for the Spaniard’s looted American silver; took the silver to Canton and exchanged it for porcelain, silk, spices, and most importantly tea; auctioned off the easy stuff in Gothenburg and smuggled the extortionately expensive tea into eastern Scotland, whereby it made its way onto the tables of nobs.
Incidentally, although tea was never grown in Sweden, I was amazed to find that tobacco was once an important Swedish crop. They lacked of course access to Virginia etc.
Sadly this time there is no choice
If Labour, the SNP and the Greens can keep Brexit off the agenda for just 10 more days then an awful lot of Tory bulls on the spread markets are going to end 2019 deep, deep into the red.
Funnily enough, The Clown’s fear of journalists is assisting our cause.
Trump helps too.
But since when was Brum in the North? Brum has never been Northern.