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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

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  • HYUFD said:

    Very interesting observation from the Northern correspondent of the Guardian on Marr confirming the very real worry that labour is in real trouble in the north

    Long term Labour voters who are now saying "I can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" on the doorstep. I've pointed that out for a long time on here. Entertainingly my local Labour friends appear to be on an interesting strategy - having largely accepted that their Not Corbyn vote has gone they're trying to claim that we have endorsed them so that the Remain soft Tories should go all the way and come from the Tories through the LibDems to vote (screamingly openly pro-PV) Labour.
    I have yet to meet a 2017 Remain Tory who would vote for Corbyn, a few going LD but never Corbyn
    It's understandable, but illogical. Venezuela is reversible, Brexit is not.

    And of course with a little luck, you could dodge both.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Olaf Scholz, Merkel's Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister, loses his bid to become SPD leader to the leftists Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken 45% to 53%, weakening the governing CDU and SPD coalition.

    The far right opposition AFD meanwhile elects East German former painter and decorator Tino Chrupalla to be its joint leader with Joerg Meuthen.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50616566

    Far right German former painter and decorator. That rings a vague bell somewhere. I am sure it will come to me.
    Hitler was an Austrian.
    Born Austrian; naturalised German.
    https://www.nationalgeographic.org/thisday/feb25/hitler-becomes-german/
    Is it not said to be the genius of the Austrians to have persuaded the world that Hitler was German and Mozart Austrian?
  • The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Olaf Scholz, Merkel's Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister, loses his bid to become SPD leader to the leftists Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken 45% to 53%, weakening the governing CDU and SPD coalition.

    The far right opposition AFD meanwhile elects East German former painter and decorator Tino Chrupalla to be its joint leader with Joerg Meuthen.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50616566

    Far right German former painter and decorator. That rings a vague bell somewhere. I am sure it will come to me.
    Hitler was an Austrian.
    Born Austrian; naturalised German.
    https://www.nationalgeographic.org/thisday/feb25/hitler-becomes-german/
    Is it not said to be the genius of the Austrians to have persuaded the world that Hitler was German and Mozart Austrian?
    They certainly sell a lot of chocolate balls on the back of it.
  • HYUFD said:

    Very interesting observation from the Northern correspondent of the Guardian on Marr confirming the very real worry that labour is in real trouble in the north

    Long term Labour voters who are now saying "I can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" on the doorstep. I've pointed that out for a long time on here. Entertainingly my local Labour friends appear to be on an interesting strategy - having largely accepted that their Not Corbyn vote has gone they're trying to claim that we have endorsed them so that the Remain soft Tories should go all the way and come from the Tories through the LibDems to vote (screamingly openly pro-PV) Labour.
    I have yet to meet a 2017 Remain Tory who would vote for Corbyn, a few going LD but never Corbyn
    I know - its so desperate a pitch as to almost be funny.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    DavidL said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Olaf Scholz, Merkel's Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister, loses his bid to become SPD leader to the leftists Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken 45% to 53%, weakening the governing CDU and SPD coalition.

    The far right opposition AFD meanwhile elects East German former painter and decorator Tino Chrupalla to be its joint leader with Joerg Meuthen.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50616566

    Far right German former painter and decorator. That rings a vague bell somewhere. I am sure it will come to me.
    Hitler was an Austrian.
    That's right - the Austrian part of Germany. But I think you'll find he was a Kunstmaler rather than a Streichmaler.
    You lot are taking my joke far too seriously.

    PBers in relentless focus on irrelevant minutiae shock.
    Well on the positive side we are not having lots of puns about it.
    On the positive side?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.
    You are far too pessimistic. There is no way Corbyn and McDonnell are going to be in government.


  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    Cyclefree said:

    malcolmg said:

    He is right they have been meddling and invading all these countries for many years with their pals from the US and created most of the chaos and terrorism.
    So the ideology which animates them has nothing to do with the terrorism, does it?

    British forces have been on constant combat operations in the Middle East for 28 years - killing almost exclusively muslims. How long do think they'll have to keep doing it before we're "safe"?

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Olaf Scholz, Merkel's Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister, loses his bid to become SPD leader to the leftists Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken 45% to 53%, weakening the governing CDU and SPD coalition.

    The far right opposition AFD meanwhile elects East German former painter and decorator Tino Chrupalla to be its joint leader with Joerg Meuthen.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50616566

    Far right German former painter and decorator. That rings a vague bell somewhere. I am sure it will come to me.
    Hitler was an Austrian.
    Pedant
    Morning Malc. Are you managing to get those turnips out of the ground?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chuka on script with the LibDem’s new pitch to be the Bozo majority stoppers.

    Chuka says only the LDs can beat the Tories in their Remain seats and Labour voters should vote tactically LD
    Is that from the OGH leaflets?
  • DavidL said:

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.
    You are far too pessimistic. There is no way Corbyn and McDonnell are going to be in government.

    Hilarious. I am not going to vote for an anti-Semitic Labour leader. You are going to vote for a congenital liar! It’s not funny.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited December 2019

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,016
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chuka on script with the LibDem’s new pitch to be the Bozo majority stoppers.

    Chuka says only the LDs can beat the Tories in their Remain seats and Labour voters should vote tactically LD
    And he's right. Was entertaining when Kensington was thrown at Chuka as a seat the LibDems should stand aside in. We're on track to win it!
    Corbyn remains the Kyptonite issue in this election. With a less mentalist leader Labour would have walked this. Even from a chasing down a lead position with less than 2 weeks to go it would be doable to hold the mirror up to the egregiously awful Johnson government and say "it doesn't have to be like this".
    But with Corbyn is DOES have to be like this. I want neither Corbyn or Johnson. Both are awful. But across the country like an inverse Animal Farm people know that Corbyn would be more awful than Johnson. So we have two options - a Johnson majority, or a Johnson minority. I was perfectly happy watching the Tory party fall apart in office but not in power. A parliament similarly incapable of hurting people or the economy would suit me down to the ground.
    -----------------
    Edit Can someone hit Vanilla with a hammer? Sick of this formatting idiocy
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    1. The race has definitely tightened, but the Tory lead has only shrunk to about where it was at the time of the dissolution of Parliament. So far anyway.
    2. The Liberal Democrat numbers for 24-30 November are remarkably consistent: out of ten surveys, one gives them 15%, one gives them 14%, and all the other eight show 13%. This may prove critical: if the Lib Dems have begun to flatline then Labour could struggle to make further progress - unless the ex-Labour voters who have deserted to the Tories over Corbyn and Brexit have an attack of the wobbles between now and polling day, which is by no means impossible.

    1. Due to the Farage surrender there is a systematic reason why a Tory lead of x% now is worth less than x% at the start of November, as there will be a lot of extra Tory votes in safe seats that were previously Brexit Party votes.
    2. My reading of last night's polls was that this had happened a bit, and Labour Leavers were coming home. No idea whether they will continue, but if it's happened a little bit that makes it seem more likely than if it hadn't.
    Everything keeps coming back to those Labour Leavers, doesn't it? If they vote Tory then Johnson wins, but if they all run back home then the Conservatives will probably go backwards and we'll end up with a Labour minority Government.

    What we could really do with from the next clutch of constituency polls is a few from the tight Labour defences in the West Midlands and the North. If those stack up with the MRP the way last night's did then there would be further evidence that the model is working and the Tory majority will come to pass.

    Besides, if UNS does not apply in this election and there are outsized Lab-to-Con swings taking place in the Labour Leave seats then the Tories could survive some wobblers going back home, so long as they don't all do it.

    After 2017 I remain highly sceptical that the Labour Leavers won't all turn back into automatons in the polling booth, but given the relative success of the MRP in 2017 and the measure of corroboration offered to its findings by this weekend's polling evidence, I'm a little more open than I was to the possibility that the Tories might pull this one off.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting observation from the Northern correspondent of the Guardian on Marr confirming the very real worry that labour is in real trouble in the north

    Long term Labour voters who are now saying "I can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" on the doorstep. I've pointed that out for a long time on here. Entertainingly my local Labour friends appear to be on an interesting strategy - having largely accepted that their Not Corbyn vote has gone they're trying to claim that we have endorsed them so that the Remain soft Tories should go all the way and come from the Tories through the LibDems to vote (screamingly openly pro-PV) Labour.
    I have yet to meet a 2017 Remain Tory who would vote for Corbyn, a few going LD but never Corbyn
    I know - its so desperate a pitch as to almost be funny.
    I have met Tories going to the LibDems because of Brexit (and because they dislike Boris).
    I have met Labour going to the Tories because of Brexit and Corbyn (and because they like Boris).
    I have not met a single Tory going to Labour, for whatever reason.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    IanB2 said:

    Chuka on script with the LibDem’s new pitch to be the Bozo majority stoppers.

    As opposed to his script from two years ago that only Labour could beat the Tories, and LD was a wasted vote?
    Sounds like he’s just desperately pleading to win his own seat!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.
    You are far too pessimistic. There is no way Corbyn and McDonnell are going to be in government.

    Hilarious. I am not going to vote for an anti-Semitic Labour leader. You are going to vote for a congenital liar! It’s not funny.

    I just love this idea that electing a politician who is a liar has some sort of novelty value.
  • The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years
    Seriously, you are blaming Corbyn for the mess the country is in, rather than the people who have actually been in charge for the last decade?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,858
    "Give me a majority and I'll keep you safe from terror"
    "BORIS vows to lock terrorists up and throw away the key"
    Is this a new low?
  • The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years

    There is a straight and demonstrable lie in Johnson’s MoS article. So I am not wrong, unfortunately. If he is happy to lie about terrorism he will lie about anything.

  • The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years
    Seriously, you are blaming Corbyn for the mess the country is in, rather than the people who have actually been in charge for the last decade?
    Yes. Corbyn should have come out for remain from day one and brexit would not happen
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    Boris on now
  • Mr. Ace, most of the people ISIS killed were Muslims too.

    Kenya's suffered Islamic terrorism. Must've missed the Kenyan invasion of the Middle East.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    Mr. Ace, most of the people ISIS killed were Muslims too.

    Kenya's suffered Islamic terrorism. Must've missed the Kenyan invasion of the Middle East.

    The Kenyans have more sense?
  • The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years

    There is a straight and demonstrable lie in Johnson’s MoS article. So I am not wrong, unfortunately. If he is happy to lie about terrorism he will lie about anything.

    I cannot comment on the MOS as I have not read it
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years
    Many of the things SO fears Johnson doing are actually things he's promised to do (removing constitutional impediments to executive power etc) - so the only hope is, presumably, that Johnson's lying again and won't do those things?
  • Not going to watch but presume Marr is going to be as fired up vs the buffoon as Spurs are when playing Chelsea?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Boris really shouldn’t have gone there.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.
    You are far too pessimistic. There is no way Corbyn and McDonnell are going to be in government.

    Hilarious. I am not going to vote for an anti-Semitic Labour leader. You are going to vote for a congenital liar! It’s not funny.

    I just love this idea that electing a politician who is a liar has some sort of novelty value.

    And I just love the idea it is acceptable to support a congenital liar if he is on your side. What does that make your side?

  • Johnson talking non stop over Marr......
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting observation from the Northern correspondent of the Guardian on Marr confirming the very real worry that labour is in real trouble in the north

    Long term Labour voters who are now saying "I can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" on the doorstep. I've pointed that out for a long time on here. Entertainingly my local Labour friends appear to be on an interesting strategy - having largely accepted that their Not Corbyn vote has gone they're trying to claim that we have endorsed them so that the Remain soft Tories should go all the way and come from the Tories through the LibDems to vote (screamingly openly pro-PV) Labour.
    I have yet to meet a 2017 Remain Tory who would vote for Corbyn, a few going LD but never Corbyn
    I know - its so desperate a pitch as to almost be funny.
    I have met Tories going to the LibDems because of Brexit (and because they dislike Boris).
    I have met Labour going to the Tories because of Brexit and Corbyn (and because they like Boris).
    I have not met a single Tory going to Labour, for whatever reason.
    Bozo fans are disproportionately older men who live in the Midlands, watch ITV, read The Sun, like gardening and use Lynx.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Boris went political when he should have gone prime ministerial.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    kinabalu said:

    "Give me a majority and I'll keep you safe from terror"
    "BORIS vows to lock terrorists up and throw away the key"
    Is this a new low?


    Ethics of Johnson's article aside, it would be interesting to see it costed, given the recent Tory government policy of defunding courts to reduce the rate at which cases are processed in order to manage prison numbers and costs. All violent offenders spending their whole sentences behind bars wouldn't come cheap. A few more pence on corporation tax maybe?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724
    Boris seems to have won an election 100 days ago, the way he's talking on Marr. He isn't responsible for anything that happened before then. I must have missed it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Dura_Ace said:

    Cyclefree said:

    malcolmg said:

    He is right they have been meddling and invading all these countries for many years with their pals from the US and created most of the chaos and terrorism.
    So the ideology which animates them has nothing to do with the terrorism, does it?

    British forces have been on constant combat operations in the Middle East for 28 years - killing almost exclusively muslims. How long do think they'll have to keep doing it before we're "safe"?

    It is possible to think such military interventions largely pointless (and often counter-productive) and also realise that Islamist terror is animated by an ideology and not just a response to Western actions. Those who focus on the latter and ignore the former - like Corbyn - do so because to admit the existence of an ideology with very different views about law, democracy, the role of religion in public life, free thought etc would raise difficult questions for those who think that those believing in the ideology are only ever victims and not also responsible for some pretty gruesome behaviour themselves.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Marr being a bit thick in not understanding that the terrorist was released under the terms of his sentence.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    HYUFD said:

    Boris on now

    Does that mean he has agreed to be interviewed by Neil or has the BBC backed down?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,883
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting observation from the Northern correspondent of the Guardian on Marr confirming the very real worry that labour is in real trouble in the north

    Long term Labour voters who are now saying "I can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" on the doorstep. I've pointed that out for a long time on here. Entertainingly my local Labour friends appear to be on an interesting strategy - having largely accepted that their Not Corbyn vote has gone they're trying to claim that we have endorsed them so that the Remain soft Tories should go all the way and come from the Tories through the LibDems to vote (screamingly openly pro-PV) Labour.
    I have yet to meet a 2017 Remain Tory who would vote for Corbyn, a few going LD but never Corbyn
    I know - its so desperate a pitch as to almost be funny.
    I have met Tories going to the LibDems because of Brexit (and because they dislike Boris).
    I have met Labour going to the Tories because of Brexit and Corbyn (and because they like Boris).
    I have not met a single Tory going to Labour, for whatever reason.
    Bozo fans are disproportionately older men who live in the Midlands, watch ITV, read The Sun, like gardening and use Lynx.
    They also drive P reg Rover 200s with odd coloured doors.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited December 2019

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years

    There is a straight and demonstrable lie in Johnson’s MoS article. So I am not wrong, unfortunately. If he is happy to lie about terrorism he will lie about anything.

    I cannot comment on the MOS as I have not read it.

    Here it is ...
    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200906587763871746?s=21

  • Jonathan said:

    Boris went political when he should have gone prime ministerial.

    kind of difficult for someone who has yet to ever appear prime ministerial... its a strong field of those who don't mind you.... the least worst is what we have to work with.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    Marr is a pussy

    The BBC are a disgrace allowing Jester to avoid Neil
  • Boris seems to have won an election 100 days ago, the way he's talking on Marr. He isn't responsible for anything that happened before then. I must have missed it.

    "For TEN YEARS you've done nothing about it". Marr smashing Shagger round the head with the basics that he can't credibly blame the last Labour government when the Tories have had 10 years to change the laws they don't like
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kinabalu said:

    "Give me a majority and I'll keep you safe from terror"
    "BORIS vows to lock terrorists up and throw away the key"
    Is this a new low?

    They're all at it. There's an election campaign on, after all.

    The other parties in the BBC seven-way debate were attacking the Tories over this only hours after the murders were committed. The police may have got to the scene within a couple of minutes, but politicians still exploited the incident to criticise the reduction in officer numbers during the austerity years anyway. Besides, politics were already in the gutter anyway: look at the choice of Prime Ministerial candidates from which we are being compelled to pick a winner.

    FWIW, there's no harm for the Tories in pushing a hardline approach on law and order, a topic on which they are traditionally strong. Labour bangs on about the NHS because it works; the Tories should (from a party political point of view) bang on more about harsh treatment for offenders, because that works for them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,858
    edited December 2019
    Have run my model. Inputs: latest polls, media, twitter, slice of toast. Output as below -
    Lab minority 10%
    Con minority 10%
    Con majority 80% - split as small 20% medium 40% large 20%
  • Good old PB - Marr smashing Shagger or being a pussy in consecutive posts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    From YouGov’s own MRP small print:

    An important caveat to make is that because our MRP is modelling seats using aggregated data, it may not pick up on specific localised factors. If these factors are significant enough to influence how people vote, they may be understated in our model. This is particularly important when looking at independent candidates as they are not comparable to other candidates and parties.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting observation from the Northern correspondent of the Guardian on Marr confirming the very real worry that labour is in real trouble in the north

    Long term Labour voters who are now saying "I can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" on the doorstep. I've pointed that out for a long time on here. Entertainingly my local Labour friends appear to be on an interesting strategy - having largely accepted that their Not Corbyn vote has gone they're trying to claim that we have endorsed them so that the Remain soft Tories should go all the way and come from the Tories through the LibDems to vote (screamingly openly pro-PV) Labour.
    I have yet to meet a 2017 Remain Tory who would vote for Corbyn, a few going LD but never Corbyn
    I know - its so desperate a pitch as to almost be funny.
    I have met Tories going to the LibDems because of Brexit (and because they dislike Boris).
    I have met Labour going to the Tories because of Brexit and Corbyn (and because they like Boris).
    I have not met a single Tory going to Labour, for whatever reason.
    I've met a handful in Portsmouth (where last night's poll suggest Labour is on track for an increased majority), but the main Labour pickups have been voters previously too young to vote, former LibDems who dislike Revoke or are voting tactically, and Greens who like Corbyn and/or the programme. Portsmouth S is the ideal marginal seat for Labour in current circs - there is a big anti-Tory majority, and it is only marginal because the Lab/LD vote was split. Given that there's a popular local Labour MP, local people have largely decided it's a Lab-Con contest and have swung accordingly. For betting purposes it's worth looking for other similar seats - I've not done the research.
  • Johnson talking non stop over Marr......

    Talking over people is the main skill they teach at elite private schools.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    Good old PB - Marr smashing Shagger or being a pussy in consecutive posts.

    He’s a pussy trying his best to seem aggressive
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years
    Seriously, you are blaming Corbyn for the mess the country is in, rather than the people who have actually been in charge for the last decade?
    Yes. Corbyn should have come out for remain from day one and brexit would not happen
    How would that have stopped it. The Tories were in power.

    Own the mess.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,572
    edited December 2019
    Andrew Marr is profoundly irritating.
    Brillo, Barnett or Maitlis needs to be given this show, it might be worth watching then.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Marr's politcal bias and extraordinary dislike of Boris on full show this morning.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited December 2019
    Again, we are finding out why Johnson avoids detailed scrutiny. Even with handpicked interviewers he cannot do it.
  • Johnson sounding like Ben Swain now. Interview going about as well for him as Swain did on Paxman
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    Marr's politcal bias and extraordinary dislike of Boris on full show this morning.

    Nonsense. He’s just professionally hurt by all the suggestions that Neil is the only challenging interviewer.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years
    Seriously, you are blaming Corbyn for the mess the country is in, rather than the people who have actually been in charge for the last decade?
    Yes. Corbyn should have come out for remain from day one and brexit would not happen
    What a ridiculous thing to say Big G
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,858

    They're all at it. There's an election campaign on, after all.
    The other parties in the BBC seven-way debate were attacking the Tories over this only hours after the murders were committed. The police may have got to the scene within a couple of minutes, but politicians still exploited the incident to criticise the reduction in officer numbers during the austerity years anyway. Besides, politics were already in the gutter anyway: look at the choice of Prime Ministerial candidates from which we are being compelled to pick a winner.
    FWIW, there's no harm for the Tories in pushing a hardline approach on law and order, a topic on which they are traditionally strong. Labour bangs on about the NHS because it works; the Tories should (from a party political point of view) bang on more about harsh treatment for offenders, because that works for them.

    I'm talking about the infantile press. One of those headlines was the Sunday Times, would you believe.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    How can Johnson have not done his home work on the facts on the issues facing the justice system. His only message is blame Corbyn blame Corbyn get brexit done. Blah blah blah
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting observation from the Northern correspondent of the Guardian on Marr confirming the very real worry that labour is in real trouble in the north

    Long term Labour voters who are now saying "I can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" on the doorstep. I've pointed that out for a long time on here. Entertainingly my local Labour friends appear to be on an interesting strategy - having largely accepted that their Not Corbyn vote has gone they're trying to claim that we have endorsed them so that the Remain soft Tories should go all the way and come from the Tories through the LibDems to vote (screamingly openly pro-PV) Labour.
    I have yet to meet a 2017 Remain Tory who would vote for Corbyn, a few going LD but never Corbyn
    I know - its so desperate a pitch as to almost be funny.
    I have met Tories going to the LibDems because of Brexit (and because they dislike Boris).
    I have met Labour going to the Tories because of Brexit and Corbyn (and because they like Boris).
    I have not met a single Tory going to Labour, for whatever reason.
    I've met a handful in Portsmouth (where last night's poll suggest Labour is on track for an increased majority), but the main Labour pickups have been voters previously too young to vote, former LibDems who dislike Revoke or are voting tactically, and Greens who like Corbyn and/or the programme. Portsmouth S is the ideal marginal seat for Labour in current circs - there is a big anti-Tory majority, and it is only marginal because the Lab/LD vote was split. Given that there's a popular local Labour MP, local people have largely decided it's a Lab-Con contest and have swung accordingly. For betting purposes it's worth looking for other similar seats - I've not done the research.
    Wait until the letter from OGH arrives there with important news that only the LDs can beat either the reds or blues respectively.... :)
  • Marr's politcal bias and extraordinary dislike of Boris on full show this morning.

    Johnson handpicked him.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Cyclefree said:

    malcolmg said:

    He is right they have been meddling and invading all these countries for many years with their pals from the US and created most of the chaos and terrorism.
    So the ideology which animates them has nothing to do with the terrorism, does it?

    Good to see that Corbyn is in full agreement with Trump on this one!

    I would point out that if he continues to cite Iraq as a key point at some point it becomes an historical commentary/observation rather than offering forward looking solutions (whether effective solutions or not). It's like saying that the problems in Palestine stem from the Balfour declaration.

    On the main point, even if there is some correlation between foreign intervention and radicalisation/terrorism (putting to one side the question of "who started it?"- Ramses the Great?), it doesn't follow that we should simply withdraw from the international arena. There will be foreign engagements that are unnecessary, perhaps even historic mistakes, some that deliver only good. And as in everything there will be a grey line in the middle. Decisions to be neutral in international affairs are easy when you are in a country that doesn't have a history of being at the forefront of involvement. Like so many things we as a country are a prisoner of our history (a lesson of course that was ignored in relation to Brexit/Ireland).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.
    You are far too pessimistic. There is no way Corbyn and McDonnell are going to be in government.

    Hilarious. I am not going to vote for an anti-Semitic Labour leader. You are going to vote for a congenital liar! It’s not funny.

    I just love this idea that electing a politician who is a liar has some sort of novelty value.

    And I just love the idea it is acceptable to support a congenital liar if he is on your side. What does that make your side?

    Like every other side. All politicians lie all the time. They distort, choose selective stats and plain lie. It is their function. Our job as the electorate is to choose the best of a bad job. That seems to be Boris.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years

    There is a straight and demonstrable lie in Johnson’s MoS article. So I am not wrong, unfortunately. If he is happy to lie about terrorism he will lie about anything.

    I cannot comment on the MOS as I have not read it.

    Here it is ...
    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200906587763871746?s=21

    That's for Daily Mail consumption. its utter bollocks and he must know it.
  • Genuinely laughing wildly at the hand picked interview Johnson has lined up for himself. Marr is tearing him apart on his own record
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725
    For 10yrs youve done nothing!!!

    Every answer Johnson gives

    repeat above
  • Marr's politcal bias and extraordinary dislike of Boris on full show this morning.

    Johnson handpicked him.

    indeed - wasn't it marr who once asked the buffoon that he was a nasty piece of work?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Imagine Wilson, Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown or Cameron doing this interview. They would have pumped out somber prime ministerial authority. No cheap party points. Just the safe pair of hands to bring the country together.

    Boris straight in to blame Labour, chucking out excuses “I’ve Only been PM for 120 days“, not me gov act is so far from the mark.
  • The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years
    Seriously, you are blaming Corbyn for the mess the country is in, rather than the people who have actually been in charge for the last decade?
    Yes. Corbyn should have come out for remain from day one and brexit would not happen
    What a ridiculous thing to say Big G
    No it is not. Labour being 100% remain would have achieved a remain majority
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.

    I hope you are wrong about Boris but the one thing we and many must despair about is Corbyn being the labour leader. He is responsible for the mess we are in and a big defeat for Corbyn is a necessary to allow the labour party come back from the abyss over the coming years

    There is a straight and demonstrable lie in Johnson’s MoS article. So I am not wrong, unfortunately. If he is happy to lie about terrorism he will lie about anything.

    I cannot comment on the MOS as I have not read it.

    Here it is ...
    https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/1200906587763871746?s=21

    10 YEARS!!!!
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The narrative for the GE has shifted following the London Bridge terrorist incident and now the NATO conference due this week

    This shift has come at the worst time for Corbyn whose history is not one that gives the public confidence he can keep us safe

    I expect Boris will take advantage of this development but the one caveat is how he deals with the toxic Trump

    Johnson is lying in the Mail on Sunday today, but Corbyn gives him a free pass. You can only observe Johnson’s mendacity and despair, once more, at the selfish stupidity of Labour members. Thanks to them a lying charlatan will have five years to wreak havoc on our courts, constitution and country, while unleashing bigotry and inflicting significant harm on millions. Shame on them forever.
    You are far too pessimistic. There is no way Corbyn and McDonnell are going to be in government.

    Hilarious. I am not going to vote for an anti-Semitic Labour leader. You are going to vote for a congenital liar! It’s not funny.

    I just love this idea that electing a politician who is a liar has some sort of novelty value.

    And I just love the idea it is acceptable to support a congenital liar if he is on your side. What does that make your side?

    Like every other side. All politicians lie all the time. They distort, choose selective stats and plain lie. It is their function. Our job as the electorate is to choose the best of a bad job. That seems to be Boris.

    Good luck with that!

  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    It is extraordinary that Boris can come across as a rude waffling liar when faced with such a weak interrogation as being offered by Marr. This should have been easy for him.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Very interesting observation from the Northern correspondent of the Guardian on Marr confirming the very real worry that labour is in real trouble in the north

    Long term Labour voters who are now saying "I can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn" on the doorstep. I've pointed that out for a long time on here. Entertainingly my local Labour friends appear to be on an interesting strategy - having largely accepted that their Not Corbyn vote has gone they're trying to claim that we have endorsed them so that the Remain soft Tories should go all the way and come from the Tories through the LibDems to vote (screamingly openly pro-PV) Labour.
    I have yet to meet a 2017 Remain Tory who would vote for Corbyn, a few going LD but never Corbyn
    It's understandable, but illogical. Venezuela is reversible, Brexit is not.

    Both assertions are questionable IMO. Depends what you mean by "Venezuela" and depends what you mean by "Brexit" (ie. the factual occurence or the consequences arising from)

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    From YouGov’s own MRP small print:
    An important caveat to make is that because our MRP is modelling seats using aggregated data, it may not pick up on specific localised factors. If these factors are significant enough to influence how people vote, they may be understated in our model. This is particularly important when looking at independent candidates as they are not comparable to other candidates and parties.

    And at this election specifically, there are a lot of independent candidates - many of whom were MPs until recently. To add to that, some of the former MPs are campaigning hard in their seats, while others are trading their £500 deposit for their £20k redundancy payment.
  • Marr v Boris

    Marr trying to be Neil but not in the same league
  • Genuinely laughing wildly at the hand picked interview Johnson has lined up for himself. Marr is tearing him apart on his own record

    Who could has imagined that Marr would come for him given the context of the interview for both parties!
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    All these people who are voting Lib Dem because Johnson is a liar and untrustworthy.
    How do they square away Swinson's signing the pledge not to vote to raise tuition fees in 2010?
    Yeah, I know "it's different" and she has quite young at the time. But she'd served a full term as an MP by then. There's cast iron evidence that her word is meaningless to her.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    In fairness Milosovic, Assad and Putin all hate the West too.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922

    Marr's politcal bias and extraordinary dislike of Boris on full show this morning.

    Johnson handpicked him.

    indeed - wasn't it marr who once asked the buffoon that he was a nasty piece of work?
    Eddie Mair
  • You can see why Johnson ran away from Neil. Even with a handpicked interviewer he struggles. It’s embarrassing.
  • For 10yrs youve done nothing!!!

    Every answer Johnson gives

    repeat above

    Because its true!
    Johnson - hospitals are terrible. Schools are terrible. Justice system is terrible. Economy is terrible. Not my fault. Only been in office 100 days.
    But his PARTY has been in office for TEN YEARS. And is directly responsible for everything he doesn't like.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not going to comment on last night's national polling except to say that partisans will read into them what they want to see. This is one of Mike Smithson's Golden Rule issues. Certainly there's a poll for just about everyone.

    It's too soon to write off a Conservative majority. However, I'm certain the country is not in landslide mood. I base that on things I'm picking up, including a fairly astonishing moment (to me) yesterday afternoon when a group of young professional men, with property investment, began laying into the Conservatives. I lived through the 1997 election and this is NOT 1997. For all the dislike of Corbyn there is also considerable antipathy towards Boris Johnson & chums.

    All I will state is that the two most extraordinary polls last night were the constituency ones of Portsmouth South and Esher & Walton. Tactical Voting, including Remain anger, will be a significant feature in this General Election.

    For this reason I continue to believe we will have a hung parliament and I am betting accordingly.

    Interesting.
    But I disagree. Two reasons:
    1. I think polling and betting tends to oscillate. 2017 too optimistic on Conservative position. 2015 too pessimistic. 2010 too optimistic.
    2. I believe most people do actually want to get Brexit behind us. Only Johnson offers that. (Although I'm going to break with tradition and say the LDs will be the major benificiaries.)
    Certainly there are a LOT of people awaiting and expecting a rerun of 2017, and interpreting every fractional uptick in Labour’s rating as the beginning of the surge. What people are forgetting is that last time Labour actually ran a good ve. The reason there’s a feeling that the Tories won’t win by much is that a lot of people don’t really want to vote for them, don’t like Bozo, are nervous about Brexit, but haven’t been inspired by any of the opposition parties to vote for anyone else.
    Much as I would love to be cracking a drink and watching the Tories lose their (expected) majority on the 12th, my money is still on a workable majority. The real fun with the Tories starts thereafter. If I were still a councillor I would be smiling about my reelection prospects.
    On you last point, I tend to agree.

    I think Boris Johnson will get himself a majority at pretty much exactly the wrong time.

    Boris will get a majority to deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn.

    What happens after is irrelevant, no Tory government since Lord Liverpool 200 years ago has won a fifth term or an election after 14 years in power as the Tories would have to do in 2024.
    Yes, a huge loss after so long would obviously not be great for the party, but not that disastrous.
  • Marr's politcal bias and extraordinary dislike of Boris on full show this morning.

    Johnson handpicked him.

    indeed - wasn't it marr who once asked the buffoon that he was a nasty piece of work?
    Eddie Mair
    I stand corrected... thank you.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    How can the come on a TV Program and not be willing to answer questions and just boorish spout corbyn is a communist get brexit done.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    edited December 2019

    1. Due to the Farage surrender there is a systematic reason why a Tory lead of x% now is worth less than x% at the start of November, as there will be a lot of extra Tory votes in safe seats that were previously Brexit Party votes.
    2. My reading of last night's polls was that this had happened a bit, and Labour Leavers were coming home. No idea whether they will continue, but if it's happened a little bit that makes it seem more likely than if it hadn't.

    I think the Tories have a potentially winning lead, but it's important that punters understand point 1 in the technical sense. Most pollsters are now giving respondents their actual local choice, and in more than half the seats there is no Brexit candidate. It seems safe to assume that BXP voters will go Tory in these seats, and none of those votes will make any difference unless someone hopes to gain a Tory seat.

    If the BXP vote in Tory seats is, say, 4-5%, then you need to reduce the overall Tory lead *for the purposes of gaining seats* by 2-3%. This doesn't allow for all the other factors in both directions - BXP supporters voting tactically Tory even where the party is standing, incumbency bonus for the anti-Tory, tactical voting, other local factors. But it does mean that if the national lead is shown as (say) 10%, then the lead for the purposes of the Tories winning seats is probably around 7-8%.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    From YouGov’s own MRP small print:
    An important caveat to make is that because our MRP is modelling seats using aggregated data, it may not pick up on specific localised factors. If these factors are significant enough to influence how people vote, they may be understated in our model. This is particularly important when looking at independent candidates as they are not comparable to other candidates and parties.

    And at this election specifically, there are a lot of independent candidates - many of whom were MPs until recently. To add to that, some of the former MPs are campaigning hard in their seats, while others are trading their £500 deposit for their £20k redundancy payment.
    Their admission that the model smooths out local factors is also hope that the LibDems are closer to the Tories in at least some of their key target seats than the model is showing. Could be an important betting point.
  • Endillion said:

    All these people who are voting Lib Dem because Johnson is a liar and untrustworthy.
    How do they square away Swinson's signing the pledge not to vote to raise tuition fees in 2010?
    Yeah, I know "it's different" and she has quite young at the time. But she'd served a full term as an MP by then. There's cast iron evidence that her word is meaningless to her.

    There is a difference between lying, over-promising, and making a u-turn.

    I think Swinson very likely believed that party policy would be not to raise tuition fees. The policy was then u-turned well above her pay grade. That is different to someone outright lying, as Johnson just did on NI checks just now as one of many examples.
  • For 10yrs youve done nothing!!!

    Every answer Johnson gives

    repeat above

    Because its true!
    Johnson - hospitals are terrible. Schools are terrible. Justice system is terrible. Economy is terrible. Not my fault. Only been in office 100 days.
    But his PARTY has been in office for TEN YEARS. And is directly responsible for everything he doesn't like.
    Even Boris's 20,000 more police is an exact response to 20,000 police cut by Theresa May under David Cameron.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094

    1. Due to the Farage surrender there is a systematic reason why a Tory lead of x% now is worth less than x% at the start of November, as there will be a lot of extra Tory votes in safe seats that were previously Brexit Party votes.
    2. My reading of last night's polls was that this had happened a bit, and Labour Leavers were coming home. No idea whether they will continue, but if it's happened a little bit that makes it seem more likely than if it hadn't.

    I think the Tories have a potentially winning lead, but it's important that punters understand point 1 in the technical sense. Most pollsters are now giving respondents their actual local choice, and in more than half the seats there is no Brexit candidate. It seems safe to assume that BXP voters will go Tory in these seats, and none of those votes will make any difference unless someone hopes to gain a Tory seat.

    If the BXP vote in Tory seats is, say, 4-5%, then you need to reduce the overall Tory lead *for the purposes of gaining seats* by 2-3%. This doesn't allow for all the other factors in both directions - BXP supporters voting tactically Tory even where the party is standing, incumbency bonus for the anti-Tory, tactical voting, other local factors. But it does mean that if the national lead is shown as (say) 10%, then the lead for the purposes of the Tories winning seats is probably around 7-8%.
    BXP’s residual vote is likely to mostly be Labour leavers.
  • nichomar said:

    How can the come on a TV Program and not be willing to answer questions and just boorish spout corbyn is a communist get brexit done.

    To be honest Marr and Boris are both as bad as each other

    Not edifying on either side
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    For 10yrs youve done nothing!!!

    Every answer Johnson gives

    repeat above

    Because its true!
    Johnson - hospitals are terrible. Schools are terrible. Justice system is terrible. Economy is terrible. Not my fault. Only been in office 100 days.
    But his PARTY has been in office for TEN YEARS. And is directly responsible for everything he doesn't like.
    And he was a Cabinet Minister for some of that time.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Andrew Marr not interviewing well

    Understand Boris is playing his usual game of talking at length but Marr is come across as not even allowing him to answer at all
  • nichomar said:

    How can the come on a TV Program and not be willing to answer questions and just boorish spout corbyn is a communist get brexit done.

    He is so out of his depth and he will be running the country for the next five years thanks to the Labour membership.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,858
    DavidL said:

    I just love this idea that electing a politician who is a liar has some sort of novelty value.

    But have we ever had one who wallows in it to the extent that this risible "Boris" character does?
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    The issue over terrorism for both sides is that they are both terrible on it in different ways, Johnson talks big but has no real plan and Corbyn fundamentally hates the western mindset which is why he wants to get rid of Prevent.
  • That is spot on. Just a mess of an interview and unwatchable
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited December 2019

    Boris seems to have won an election 100 days ago, the way he's talking on Marr. He isn't responsible for anything that happened before then. I must have missed it.

    "For TEN YEARS you've done nothing about it". Marr smashing Shagger round the head with the basics that he can't credibly blame the last Labour government when the Tories have had 10 years to change the laws they don't like
    Context: the Marr show averages about two million viewers. At a guess, about one million of them will be those very interested in politics and, therefore, already decided on how to vote, and the other million will have it on as background noise and not notice any of the content.

    Johnson can get away with a few awkward moments the same way as he can get away with turning down Andrew Neil and the Channel 4 invite. The great mass of the electorate doesn't watch these events (many of whom won't even have begun to engage with the election,) those who do will be the very interested and will therefore have largely settled opinions, and the "being frit" charge can be deflected because he has accepted the head-to-heads with Corbyn. The anger over the no-shows can thus be presented as broadcasters having a fit of pique and trying to make the election all about them. It's also helpful that Corbyn isn't doing all of these events either: he also sent a substitute to the BBC seven-way debate on Friday.

    The main aim of the whole interview and debate cycle is to minimise the numbers of appearances and, when they do happen, to generate as few viral video clip cock-ups for Labour to post on anti-social media as possible. It doesn't follow that it's the right thing to do from the point of view of submitting to public scrutiny, but it arguably is the right thing to do from a purely party political standpoint. The Tory PR operation has probably judged Johnson's media schedule correctly.
  • Charles said:

    Andrew Marr not interviewing well

    Understand Boris is playing his usual game of talking at length but Marr is come across as not even allowing him to answer at all

    Nonsense, Johnson hasnt answered a question. Marr needed to be tougher not weaker.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,094
    To think someone on PB once said that Bozo had gravitas!
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