politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And now the YouGov MRP projection – a CON majority of 68
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It was hugely exciting an hour and half ago, is it now going in a bin 😕.MikeSmithson said:
Agreed. That'a a huge problem with MRP pollingWulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
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Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.olm said:Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.0 -
Corbyn's already dead fox has well and truly been shot. This is excellent news for Johnson as he has the capacity to turn an interview into a crisis. Also with today's fantastic Tory Yougov results why should Johnson take the risk?Floater said:
I wonder if our labour voters will still be shouting about cowardiceMexicanpete said:
Corbyn really was terrible, so you can't blame the useless old duffer! If Corbyn is ducking out Boris really shouldn't do them either.Floater said:0 -
Were you still up for the Beast?Floater said:
oh, that would be pricelessHYUFD said:Bolsover Cons 42% Labour 38%, Skinner out
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
Explains the ever more hysterical lies from Labour0 -
Remember Nuneaton being the kind of seat Labour used to need to win? Apparently that's basically a safe seat now.0
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"a seven-way debate between party leaders on the BBC on Friday night will feature Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, in Mr Corbyn’s place."Floater said:
The annointed one, if more proof were really needed. Still available at 9/2 as next Labour leader.0 -
Yep. But Pidcock...Wulfrun_Phil said:
"a seven-way debate between party leaders on the BBC on Friday night will feature Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, in Mr Corbyn’s place."Floater said:
The annointed one, if more proof were really needed. Still available at 9/2 as next Labour leader.0 -
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.HYUFD said:
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?SouthamObserver said:Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
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If I remember correctly from the photo posted on twitter earlier today, Tories have lost ~30 seats over the past week or so (according to their model).rottenborough said:0 -
It's annoying that YouGov don't put the confidence intervals into their spreadsheet, but only publish it for each constituency graphically.
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YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
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Dagenham has a lower population of Boomers than national average (26% vs 31%). Age is the strongest indicator of voting intention, even more than Brexit IMO.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Surprised the Tory majority isn't a bit more than 2% in 70% Leave-voting Dagenham.HYUFD said:
Perhaps but also need to ensure Dagenham goes blue as forecast tooAndy_JS said:
Those all sound right to me. And I can see Chipping Barnet being a problem for the Tories: maybe you Essex Tories ought to move over there to do some campaigning for Theresa Villiers.HYUFD said:Round my way Cons forecast to hold Chingford 49% to 40%, to gain Dagenham 39% to 37%, to hold Harlow 59% to 32%, to hold Thurtod 55% to 31%, to hold Epping Forest 60% to 19%
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/mrp-election-poll-boris-johnson-heads-for-big-majority-qrqsq9f7r0 -
Lol at Hodges attacking others for overreacting!rottenborough said:0 -
I hope they manage it - a rare occurrence that.Artist said:
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Ooh, handy
https://twitter.com/forwardnotback/status/1199823502364282880
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Yes, but that is different. She is not a former MP who left their party and stood against it like the others.Artist said:
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
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The purpose of MRP is not to accurately predict every seat, but to accurately predict the total number of seats like the Exit Poll.AdrianFrancis said:
With 632 seats it's reliable but with 50 states it's not, the sample would be too small for states that are as large as a european country by them selves, that's why yougov's american MRP failed in the 2016 US presidential election.2 -
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1199830741422673920
If some of this type of stuff comes to pass, then 2019 will be a watershed election0 -
The Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. Corbyn is designed to repel Midlands voters.Foxy said:
Having lived in the Midlands most of my life, I do agree. The Midlands industrial culture was mostly one of smaller enterprising firms, particularly in engineering. The motor industry being the only major nationalised one, and that was nationalised late on. This is quite a contrast with the old coal, steel and ship building towns of the NE and Wales.Brom said:
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.kle4 said:
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.
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😶. Aren’t all seats tactical voting seats in this election.Andy_JS said:
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.olm said:Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?0 -
Well he knows what it looks like!KentRising said:
Lol at Hodges attacking others for overreacting!rottenborough said:0 -
I think you can see some of the reasoning behind this study in the fact that Wirral West is "likely Lab" and Wirral South is "lean Lab". I assume that's because Wirral West is a more prosperous constituency and therefore the Labour performance is assumed to be stronger on this occasion. But I'm not sure it's right in terms of those two Wirral seats.0
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Easily solved. Put a Peaky Blinders cap on his head.SouthamObserver said:
The Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. Corbyn is designed to repel Midlands voters.Foxy said:
Having lived in the Midlands most of my life, I do agree. The Midlands industrial culture was mostly one of smaller enterprising firms, particularly in engineering. The motor industry being the only major nationalised one, and that was nationalised late on. This is quite a contrast with the old coal, steel and ship building towns of the NE and Wales.Brom said:
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.kle4 said:
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.
Seriously, if they are holding up in cities, youth quake mark 2 around Uni’s, dying hard in NE and late recovery in Wales, they need to be slaughtered somewhere for the predictions to be accurate.
Didn’t feel like that though even in early 18 point lead days whenever Boris went there. I recall Big G getting excited by Boris making innuendo in a Coventry factory amongst middle aged men, but doesn’t their wives cancel out those votes?0 -
Absolutely. I have the Tories around 400 too, based on very indifferent support for the LDs.SouthamObserver said:
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.HYUFD said:
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?SouthamObserver said:Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
To be honest Labour deserve to be sub 200, but then again so do the Tories under Boris, but sadly they are currently operating in the high 300s with more to come.0 -
That is very useful. So Labour probably need to win Grimsby and Dudley North to make it a hung parliament. That’s a tough ask with their Brexit policy.kle4 said:
I hope they manage it - a rare occurrence that.Artist said:
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Ooh, handy
https://twitter.com/forwardnotback/status/11998235023642828800 -
Cons to hold Herts SW comfortably but Gauke 2nd, Cons 46%, Gauke 19%, LDs 15%0
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Corbyn is daft enough to have the blade facing inwards.egg said:
Easily solved. Put a Peaky Blinders cap on his head.SouthamObserver said:
The Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. Corbyn is designed to repel Midlands voters.Foxy said:
Having lived in the Midlands most of my life, I do agree. The Midlands industrial culture was mostly one of smaller enterprising firms, particularly in engineering. The motor industry being the only major nationalised one, and that was nationalised late on. This is quite a contrast with the old coal, steel and ship building towns of the NE and Wales.Brom said:
This won’t surprise anyone who knows the Midlands. Incredibly patriotic and makes up a tonne of the lads who follow England away. It also has a history of voting Tory, more so than many of the Northern pit towns where I expect drift home to Labour.kle4 said:
I seem to recall the regional voting polling from a month or so ago suggested that actually the Midlands, part of it at any rate, is even stronger for the Tories than the south now, which is interesting.FrancisUrquhart said:I notice YouGov MRP still have most of the North going Labour....but the midlands like Stoke going Tory.
As a result, the Midlands is a culture more open to free enterprise and markets, and Conservatism.0 -
Most seats are safe seats and therefore tactical voting won't feature much.egg said:
😶. Aren’t all seats tactical voting seats in this election.Andy_JS said:
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.olm said:Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?0 -
If you’re a Tory supporter I expect you’d wish the next two weeks flies by and just want it over and done with.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
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Grieve is doing quite well in the poll with 28% (though not well enough). I still haven't fully understood how they trade off their small constituency samples and demographic projections.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Looking at the minor parties: Lucas romps home in Brighton, but the Greens don't make much progress in Bristol or anywhere else. BXP stand to come second in Barnsley Central, and get 20% in a dozen or so seats, but they're not close to winning anywhere on these figures. Not many SNP marginals and Plaid has little to win or lose. No Northern Ireland figures here.0 -
At 32.2% Nuneaton is above national average in proportion of Boomers.Andy_JS said:
The archetypal white working-class constituency in the Midlands. Corbyn would be very unpopular there.kle4 said:Remember Nuneaton being the kind of seat Labour used to need to win? Apparently that's basically a safe seat now.
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Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.
Lincoln is the one that seems the most anomalous.0 -
Yep I think that is a good summary of where we are. Unless we see a real uptick in the polls this is going to be very nervy next couple of weeks.nico67 said:If you’re a Tory supporter I expect you’d wish the next two weeks flies by and just want it over and done with.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
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It is high. The whole shebang could be based on a Tory poll lead that isn't there.Wulfrun_Phil said:First reactions:
I'm pretty content with how the MRP compares with my somewhat simpler model using similar vote shares. The MRP has the Conservatives on 359 seats across GB, based on an 11% lead. My own model has them on 332 in England alone, when the same 43/32/14/3 split is applied. Allowing for Scotland and Wales, that seems in the same sort of ball park with the MRP predicting maybe a handful more Conservative gains net (a difference which can be narrowed down to its the virtual absence of LD net gains.)
On an 11% lead I've also got the Conservatives picking up quite a few heavily Leave seats such as Wolves NE (Lab) and Norfolk N (LD), whilst failing to pick up some heavily Labour Remain seats such as Kensington.
That said, a question over the MRP model has to be over the assumptions that lead the LDs to pick up only 1 net seat despite nearly doubling their 2017 vote share. How reasonable are the assumptions on tactical voting built in to the MRP model, and can likely behaviours in individual seats really be captured by multi-level regression modelling alone?
The other question is the data time frame in the model. Although it is based on data up to 26th November, how far back does that time frame extend? As there is clear evidence of narrowing in the polls, an 11% gap seems a bit high based on current polling.1 -
I'm amazed they have Dudley North as close.Brom said:
That is very useful. So Labour probably need to win Grimsby and Dudley North to make it a hung parliament. That’s a tough ask with their Brexit policy.kle4 said:
I hope they manage it - a rare occurrence that.Artist said:
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Ooh, handy
https://twitter.com/forwardnotback/status/11998235023642828800 -
Extraordinarily bad yes, even when squeezing the Liberal vote to death unlike 1983 Corbyn still does worse than Ed Miliband and Kinnock and Gordon BrownSouthamObserver said:
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.HYUFD said:
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?SouthamObserver said:Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
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What does the merp say about the Swindon and Blackpool seats?0
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It's true that yougov found that Labour where closing the gap by around 0.5% per day since Nov.20 till today. If that trend continues until polling day then the swing would fall to just 2%, which would make a Consevative majority of around 0-20.FrancisUrquhart said:It ain't going to happen. This is based on Tories winning by 11 and the campaign is going all Labour's way over the past week.
For the Tories, all they can hope for is no more slip-ups and hope that enough tight seats go their way. They have to also hope that the Lib Dems can get a bit of traction and take back a few % from Labour.
Another thing, if Labour continue to rise it should impact the SNP in Scotland just like the Conservative surge did.0 -
I think the Greens will be ahead of Labour on IOW, not third place in this MRP. I agree that it doesn't seem to anticipate tactical voting very well.NickPalmer said:
Grieve is doing quite well in the poll with 28% (though not well enough). I still haven't fully understood how they trade off their small constituency samples and demographic projections.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Looking at the minor parties: Lucas romps home in Brighton, but the Greens don't make much progress in Bristol or anywhere else. BXP stand to come second in Barnsley Central, and get 20% in a dozen or so seats, but they're not close to winning anywhere on these figures. Not many SNP marginals and Plaid has little to win or lose. No Northern Ireland figures here.
If I can find enough time at the weekend, I shall produce my own spreadsheet model.0 -
Indeed, BUT simultaneously, if UK remains in EU the case for Scotland to leave becomes much less hard to argue (WRT borders, trade, standards, free movement, currency. Same for Irish Unification).Black_Rook said:
Some voters. Not a sufficient number for the Tories.Andy_JS said:
Because voters realise that promises of free money isn't wise.HaroldO said:Here is one question; Why are Labour not looking like winning a majority of their own, in fact they are nowhere near doing so?
I mean they are literally telling the public they can make their lives hugely better, and all for almost free yet they are nowhere near holding power outright.
Though that said, things would be very different without Scotland.
Here's what probably happens in the event of a Hung Parliament:
1. SNP, Lib Dems and Labour Europhiles all insist on a 2nd EU referendum. It is held. Narrow win for Remain.
2. In helping to shove the UK back into the EU, the SNP then wreck their 2nd shot at independence, because they can't convince enough Scottish voters why leaving the EU under one set of terms was a disaster but leaving under another set of terms would be a panacea
If it weren't for Scottish votes the Tories could win outright with 296 seats and would be better than 90% likely to bring it home against any plausible Labour surge. But that's a counterfactual. In the real world the Scottish votes are there, and the SNP may soon end up in a most invidious position.
If they successfully lobby for Britain's place in Europe then they'll probably end up locking Scotland into the UK too.
The previous argument suggesting Scotland should stay in the UK to remain in the EU has been revealed as the joke it was, and the (meaningless) 'Vow' can't be repeated this time. They'll also get their currency act together, and won't be arguing on oil anymore which was always tenuous and volatile; the Greens there will put a more cogent argument with them.
If SNP win big and there's a hung parliament, that is really the only chance in near future; the spectre of Boris Johnson and Tories and Brexit having been kept out by a nick might still be enough. The main impediment would be the LDs (and Con) trying to block a ref if there was a Lab min Gov.
Sturgeon better make a better attack on Johnson then Lab and Corbyn (who doesn't do such personal attacks), and she's started.1 -
It's 20% EM and they'll stick with Labour in the main.Artist said:
I'm amazed they have Dudley North as close.Brom said:
That is very useful. So Labour probably need to win Grimsby and Dudley North to make it a hung parliament. That’s a tough ask with their Brexit policy.kle4 said:
I hope they manage it - a rare occurrence that.Artist said:
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Ooh, handy
https://twitter.com/forwardnotback/status/11998235023642828800 -
You can play with it here:egg said:What does the merp say about the Swindon and Blackpool seats?
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
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If Trump does drop a clanger, it [Love] actually gives Boris a priceless PR opportunity - "I'm sorry Mr. President, but our NHS is not for sale to anyone, for any price. Not even to you".nico67 said:If you’re a Tory supporter I expect you’d wish the next two weeks flies by and just want it over and done with.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
Now that would be a dramatic end to the campaign
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Seems very, very strange that Bolsover has a bigger Tory majority proposed than Warrington South.kle4 said:
I hope they manage it - a rare occurrence that.Artist said:
YouGov picked up a large amount of support for the independent in East Devon.Foxy said:
Entirely plausible. MPs flatter themselves thinking they have large personal votes. They do not. This applies to independents like Grieve as much as Field.Wulfrun_Phil said:
YouGov has Field getting around 10% in Birkenhead, to the Labour candidate's 50%. Not a plausible outcome at all.wooliedyed said:
Yep, Bottomley 75, Sheerman 79 election (And field if he survives) them Harriet 82 and on to the 83 mob.JohnO said:
No. She was elected in 1982, Bottomley in 1975 by-election (or 76,...haven’t checked).Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's Harriet, isn't it?TheScreamingEagles said:So if Skinner does lose, with Ken Clarke's retirement, who will be the new Father/Mother of the House?
Ooh, handy
https://twitter.com/forwardnotback/status/1199823502364282880
Warrington South was Tory 2010-20170 -
I think this is very bad for Johnson.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.0 -
Gauke splitting the remain vote. Superb.HYUFD said:Cons to hold Herts SW comfortably but Gauke 2nd, Cons 46%, Gauke 19%, LDs 15%
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Labour should be doing much, much worse in my opinion.HYUFD said:
Extraordinarily bad yes, even when squeezing the Liberal vote to death unlike 1983 Corbyn still does worse than Ed Miliband and Kinnock and Gordon BrownSouthamObserver said:
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.HYUFD said:
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?SouthamObserver said:Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
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What's the average?Foxy said:
At 32.2% Nuneaton is above national average in proportion of Boomers.Andy_JS said:
The archetypal white working-class constituency in the Midlands. Corbyn would be very unpopular there.kle4 said:Remember Nuneaton being the kind of seat Labour used to need to win? Apparently that's basically a safe seat now.
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If this was two weeks before 92 who predicted Patten to fall?Andy_JS said:
Most seats are safe seats and therefore tactical voting won't feature much.egg said:
😶. Aren’t all seats tactical voting seats in this election.Andy_JS said:
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.olm said:Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?0 -
Norwich South is almost an exact transposition of my placard report yesterday. I am awesome
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If the Tories had any sense they would be taking this and going all Lib Dems and for all the close seats putting the bar charts on there with a clear message.rottenborough said:I think this is very bad for Johnson.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.2 -
After 2017, no one will believe it, and no doubt worse polls will come out between now and election day that will create the impression of a tight race and avoid complacency.rottenborough said:I think this is very bad for Johnson.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.0 -
Torbay 58% Cons 25% LD.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
LDs now polling higher in Kensington, Chelsea and Fulham, Cities of London and Westminster and Wimbledon than a seat they held from 1997 to 20150 -
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What an absolute bell-end he is. Middle class overgrown schoolboy cosplaying as a member of the proletariat.rottenborough said:0 -
Unless it’s based on certain demographic wanting brexit done, and then going off it when having it.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1199830741422673920
If some of this type of stuff comes to pass, then 2019 will be a watershed election0 -
Well he has moved on from cosplaying as a violent anarchic....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
What an absolute bell-end he is. Middle class overgrown schoolboy cosplaying as a member of the proletariat.rottenborough said:1 -
Is this poll gonna have cut-through with anyone other than us nerds? It may in turn build a narrative in the media of comfortable Tory win that is dangerous for Boris, but on the other hand all other recent polls have showed a narrowing. The Tories can whip out the Survations and ICMs of this world, with their 7% leads, and say 'look chaps, this is just way too tight'.rottenborough said:I think this is very bad for Johnson.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
In addition, the Tories can point wavering Brexiteers in northern and Midlands seats to 2017 for what happens when people give their vote to magic Grandpa: hung parliament, no Brexit.0 -
Ynys Mon: leans Conservative.
Con 35%
Lab 28%
PC 28%
BRX 9%
LDs and Greens are negligible.0 -
But all the seats they are winning are ones that wish to get Brexit done. He knows that and the message is resonating. He is harnessing Brexit to win the election and he knows it is more powerful than the plague on both their houses message.rottenborough said:I think this is very bad for Johnson.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.
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It could be this years Canterbury.PaulM said:
Leigh isn't going Tory. No chance. And I wonder whether that points to the shortcomings of the MRP approach - places like Leigh demographically should not be as staunch Labour as they are - negligible BAME, above average home ownership etc But 100 years of Labour MPs and Labour councillors has to count for somethingPhilip_Thompson said:MRP has Leigh as Con Gain.
No. Just no. Leigh is not blue.0 -
Surely it must be time of the campaign where we get the stupid open chain letters filling up newspapers.0
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Lincoln is low on the Boomer percentage at 27.6%Andy_JS said:Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.
Lincoln is the one that seems the most anomalous.0 -
What’s so extraordinary about it? They did it two years ago. Small sample size(!) but labour have never not got over 200 seats with Corbyn as leaderSouthamObserver said:
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.HYUFD said:
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?SouthamObserver said:Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
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If things are on schedule we should get a MORI poll in tomorrow's evening standard.0
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Is Boomer the new gammon?Foxy said:
Lincoln is low on the Boomer percentage at 27.6%Andy_JS said:Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.
Lincoln is the one that seems the most anomalous.0 -
As I recall it was widely predicted he was in trouble, to the point where it was suggested he could take leave from party chairman duties and campaign in his seat full time, but he chose not to.egg said:
If this was two weeks before 92 who predicted Patten to fall?Andy_JS said:
Most seats are safe seats and therefore tactical voting won't feature much.egg said:
😶. Aren’t all seats tactical voting seats in this election.Andy_JS said:
Tactical voting seats will be the most difficult to estimate using this method because demographics obviously cannot take tactical voting into account.olm said:Is there anything on how YG have assessed tactical voting in this MRP?
For example I suspect East Devon will be possibly (the only) Independent win (Claire Wright): if tactical voting works.
(Seems incomprehensible why Greens and LDs stood against her, and Lab for that matter).
And it could come significantly into play with those close SNP/Con seats and with PC/Con/Lab in Ynys Môn.
Take Mogg seat as an example. Is it % swing since last election, as Jeremy vine would display, or in fact adding up all leave votes in the seat giving to Mogster, all remain votes in the seat giving them to libdem, and calculating what swing remain need to oust leader of the house, factoring in libdem done well in seat this year giving Jacob a libdem counsellor, and that the voters put in Labour MP few elections ago?0 -
Hyndburn: leans Con.
Con 43%, Lab 39%, BRX 10%, LD 5%, Grn 2%.0 -
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In 12 hours, if things are exactly the same as last week.FrancisUrquhart said:
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I really beg to differ here.SouthamObserver said:
Labour should be doing much, much worse in my opinion.HYUFD said:
Extraordinarily bad yes, even when squeezing the Liberal vote to death unlike 1983 Corbyn still does worse than Ed Miliband and Kinnock and Gordon BrownSouthamObserver said:
Getting over 200 seats with Jeremy Corbyn as leader would be an extraordinary result for Labour. It gives the party a thoroughly undeserved chance to bounce back, especially given what’s coming down the line. My expectation was (is) comfortably sub-200.HYUFD said:
Since when is a bigger Tory majority than Blair got in 2005 good for Labour?SouthamObserver said:Much better for Labour than I expected. Just shows that with a decent leader the Tories would be toast.
The Tories have been in charge for nearly a decade (the majority of which with out a majority) presided over some pretty tough economic measures (as needed as they may have been, still vastly unpopular) leading the absolute shambles of brexit, having gone through 3 Prime Ministers, multiple MP's leaving the party to cross the floor. That's just the start.
Bear in mind Major's victory in 1992 is the only occasion of a party winning 4 consecutive general elections since 1900. So to suggest that Labour should be doing worse than losing 50+ seats and recording their worst general election result in terms of seats since 1935, in what would be their 4th consecutive general election loss is frankly astonishing.
If any Corbynistas are reading this, Just know that the any other Labour leader should be thrashing the Tories at the moment.1 -
Unlikely as most of the seats where LD swing to Labour would count are Labour holds anyway, the Tories gains are mainly in Leave seats the LDs vote is negligible and there is a big Brexit Party vote to squeeze. Those seats are pro Boris and pro Brexitrottenborough said:I think this is very bad for Johnson.
If the cut through tomorrow around the water cooler is that he is nailed on for a decent majority of 60+ then some voters will think twice, given the unconscious wished result is a plague on both crap houses.0 -
They are pointing out it’s another one Boris playing safety first from, maybe in greenhouse with kinnock? It’s that poor chief sec to the tres again, or cannon fodder as probably known in CCHQ.Wulfrun_Phil said:
"a seven-way debate between party leaders on the BBC on Friday night will feature Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary, in Mr Corbyn’s place."Floater said:
The annointed one, if more proof were really needed. Still available at 9/2 as next Labour leader.
And Jo and Nic will say why’s Boris running scared from debating us, and will go easy on wrongbaileys all being sisters together.
No I did not mention the Scottish play.
Farage is there to uptick his own vote. What’s lost on some People is when Farage so effectively lays into labour its Tory votes he’s winning.
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Where do I sign...FrancisUrquhart said:Surely it must be time of the campaign where we get the stupid open chain letters filling up newspapers.
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And, given their latest leader approval stats it's almost certainly going to show a narrowing of the lead.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Nationally it is 31.7% Boomers. The Standard deviation is fairly small by eyeballing the data, but not easy to calculate from the HOC data.Andy_JS said:
What's the average?Foxy said:
At 32.2% Nuneaton is above national average in proportion of Boomers.Andy_JS said:
The archetypal white working-class constituency in the Midlands. Corbyn would be very unpopular there.kle4 said:Remember Nuneaton being the kind of seat Labour used to need to win? Apparently that's basically a safe seat now.
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Yes, 5/1 in Ynys Mon would be up there with my 2017 Hallam surprise. I have 3s on North Norfolk too,llef said:Yougov have cons winning ynys Mon.
I pointed out earlier that the 5/1 with Ladbrokes seemed good value.
Camel should be happy!
If this was the election result it would be bittersweet. Betting-wise, literally as good as it gets. Politically speaking, upsetting.
I expect some movement over the next 13 days though.0 -
We'll know when they update their model closer in to the vote.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Just watching the Corbyn interview, what is really telling is he has no idea about the financial side of things. McDonnell has clearly told him x,y and z and Jezza is so dense he has thought that it doesn't sound quite right.
He didn't even understand the question about what proportion of the tax take the rich pay, nor did he have any idea of what it is.0 -
No, but age is a very strong indicator of voting intention, perhaps stronger than Brexit vote.FrancisUrquhart said:
Is Boomer the new gammon?Foxy said:
Lincoln is low on the Boomer percentage at 27.6%Andy_JS said:Some of the best holds for Labour according to the model: Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Portsmouth South, Canterbury, Croydon Central, Reading East, Bridgend, Gower, Newport West, Lincoln, Gedling, Lancaster.
Lincoln is the one that seems the most anomalous.
I am a tail end Boomer myself, just a month off being Gen X, a demographic that I feel is a better fit.0 -
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He sounds drunk.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well he has moved on from cosplaying as a violent anarchic....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
What an absolute bell-end he is. Middle class overgrown schoolboy cosplaying as a member of the proletariat.rottenborough said:0 -
It does. 23rd December which is pretty damn mean.Brom said:
Only the students could keep it red. I think it maybe breaks up later than most UnisRichard_Tyndall said:Surprised to see Lincoln still red. I think it will go Blue on the day.
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Last time round, Tories outperformed the MRP by 2.2% on average, Labour 2.1%, Plaid 0.9%.
Everyone else underperformed; SNP 1.4%, Lib Dems 1.9%, UKIP 1.6%, Greens 0.5%.0 -
It would be but any mention of the NHS being part of trade talks from Trump would be a disaster for Johnson regardless of his come back.BluerBlue said:
If Trump does drop a clanger, it [Love] actually gives Boris a priceless PR opportunity - "I'm sorry Mr. President, but our NHS is not for sale to anyone, for any price. Not even to you".nico67 said:If you’re a Tory supporter I expect you’d wish the next two weeks flies by and just want it over and done with.
I think the danger for the Tories is really to not drop the Ming vase . Johnson really just has to avoid any gaffes and hope the Trump visit goes okay .
That visit must be causing some concern in no 10 , although I expect Trump to stay on message re the NHS he can still do some damage.
Now that would be a dramatic end to the campaign
I don’t see Trump causing problems over the NHS but there are other areas in which he could cause some problems.
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Are there no workhouses?Richard_Tyndall said:
It does. 23rd December which is pretty damn mean.Brom said:
Only the students could keep it red. I think it maybe breaks up later than most UnisRichard_Tyndall said:Surprised to see Lincoln still red. I think it will go Blue on the day.
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Controversial take time
Jezzas hamfisted document disaster today of 451 pages of nothing has given Boz the chance to say categorically the NHS is safe with him and has left labour looking like comspiracy nutcases. And yesterday rumbles on.... no apology no apology no apology with voters split down the middle on if the old trot is anti semitic0 -
It won't be, the Tories gains are almost all in Leave seats that want to get Brexit done, Labour's gains in Remain seats in 2017 are largely Labour holdsrottenborough said:If this happens, it is game on:
https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/11998194218769285200 -
We should also get an ELBOW on SundayRobD said:If things are on schedule we should get a MORI poll in tomorrow's evening standard.
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